World
Is Iran supplying ballistic missiles to Russia for the Ukraine war?
Tehran, Iran – Ukraine’s Western allies claim Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia in a major escalation – a claim Tehran has rejected as “completely baseless and false” and pointed to what it sees as Western hypocrisy.
The United States, Britain, France and Germany on Tuesday imposed more sanctions on Iran for what they called Tehran’s “escalatory” decision. They provided no evidence and the weapon has not been observed in the battlefield yet.
Tehran has described the latest sanctions on Iranian firms and individuals as “economic terrorism”.
The Kremlin, however, has not refuted the reports, instead branding Iran an “important partner”.
What’s the significance of the missiles?
The Western allies have accused Iran of giving Russia some 200 ballistic missiles of the Fath-360 model potentially slated to be used in Ukraine within weeks. Russia has been fighting a war with Ukraine, which has been backed by the West, since 2022.
The satellite-guided projectile, also known as BM-120, is a single stage, surface-to-surface, solid propellant ballistic missile that can be launched from up to six-round canisters mounted on the back of trucks.
The range is only up to 120km (75 miles) and it can carry an explosive payload weighing up to 150kg (330lb), with maximum speeds reaching Mach 4 – four times the speed of sound, or about 4,900 kilometres per hour (3,050mph). The missile is believed to have an accuracy of below 30 metres (98 feet).
The weapon by itself is unlikely to turn the tide of any war, but could potentially help Russia better manage its offensive on Ukrainian soil. The Fath-360 has often been compared with the US-made HIMARS systems that Ukraine has been using against Russian forces.
As the US has also pointed out, the Iranian missiles could be deployed to hit targets nearer to the front lines, allowing Russia to reserve its own precision-guided munitions for targets deeper inside Ukrainian borders.
Since shortly after the start of the war in 2022, Iran has also been accused of sending explosives-laden drones to Russia and helping train Russian forces and set up a drone production line, with Ukraine displaying parts of destroyed drones in battlefields as proof.
For its part, Iran has said it sold drones to Russia – but this happened “months” before the start of the war. It has also emphatically denied sending the missiles on multiple occasions since the claim was first made by Western officials in late 2022, with the foreign ministry on Wednesday promising to respond to the sanctions.
Would sending the missiles violate Iran’s nuclear deal?
The nuclear deal that Iran signed with world powers in 2015 to get relief from United Nations sanctions in exchange for limiting its nuclear programme also included provisions on missiles.
As part of the accord’s sunset clauses, a longstanding conventional arms embargo imposed on Iran expired in October 2020. More restrictions on Iran’s missile programme expired in October 2023, but the US and European Union kept their own sanctions to pressure the Iranian arms industry.
Technically, there are no international legal hurdles stopping Iran from sending the ballistic missiles.
But United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, which underpins the nuclear accord, used the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) that was formed by the G7 to define the prohibitions imposed on Iran as part of the arms embargo. Russia and China are MTCR partners, but the regime does not impose legally binding obligations.
The MTCR Category I stipulates that adhering states should not export missiles and drones with a range of more than 300km (186 miles) and a payload greater than 500kg (1,100lb).
The Fath-360 falls comfortably within the confines of Category I, which could mean that – if the allegations are true – Iran is treading carefully by not sending longer-range missiles. Earlier reports had speculated Tehran could be sending ballistic missile variants with ranges of up to 700km (435 miles) that could travel far beyond Ukraine.
Limiting the range of the exported missiles could shield Iran against the nuclear deal’s “snapback” mechanism that could reinstate all UNSC sanctions on Iran. If longer-range missiles were to be exported, the E3 could argue Iran was violating Category I Resolution 2231, which expires in October 2025.
Would missile exports to Russia make strategic sense for Iran?
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and his cabinet have come to power with support from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei while emphasising they want more diplomatic engagement with the West and negotiations to lift sanctions.
Russia has also stirred the pot in Iran by supporting Azerbaijan’s Turkey-backed plan to establish the controversial Zangezur Corridor, linking mainland Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through Armenia and cutting off a vital export line to Europe for Iran.
For these two reasons, a decision by Iran to send missiles to Russia would not appear to make strategic sense, according to Hamidreza Azizi, and visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).
But beyond the timing, the Iran expert told Al Jazeera that Tehran could be expecting to finally take delivery of the advanced Russian Su-35 fighter jets that it has said it wants to procure, while looking to other military technology and joint weapons production with Russia.
“Furthermore, Iran and Russia have been cooperating in other strategic areas, such as space and nuclear programmes. Iran may also seek to deepen collaboration in these areas. So, while the timing might be questionable, these broader factors could be driving Iran’s incentives to proceed with the missile deliveries,” Azizi said.
What do we know about the latest Western sanctions on Iran?
In response to what they called a “dramatic escalation”, the US and E3 have further piled on sanctions on Iranian civil aviation, blacklisting flagship airliner Iran Air and cutting off its access to Europe.
Citing a “direct threat to European security”, the E3 said they would pursue designating entities and individuals involved with Iranian weapons programmes.
The US and United Kingdom blacklisted three senior military commanders who have been allegedly involved in exporting arms to Russia, along with four Iranian entities including the organisation running the Anzali Free Trade Zone in northern Iran. Five Russian ships and three aviation units were designated as well.
Did the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal get us here?
The landmark 2015 Iranian nuclear accord has been in limbo for years because Washington unilaterally abandoned it in 2018 and imposed the harshest-ever sanctions on Iran that remain in place today.
But the move, and the “maximum pressure” policy of the administration of former President Donald Trump that his predecessor Joe Biden has mostly continued, prompted Iran to increasingly veer towards Russia and China.
Iran and Russia have been cooperating in Syria as well, working for more than a decade to keep the government of President Bashar al-Assad in power.
Iran and China signed a 25-year cooperation agreement in 2021, but no major deals have been announced as part of the agreement. China, however, continues to be the largest buyer of Iranian crude oil despite the sanctions.
On the other hand, the Russian invasion of Ukraine led Moscow to seek new partners.
The US pressure on Iran has been a “major factor” driving further cooperation with Russia, and abandoning the nuclear deal was a “key moment” that pushed Iran to pursue a “look to the East” policy, Azizi said.
The expert said Iran and Russia share a desire to challenge US influence and hegemony globally, but this does not equal a formal military or economic alliance, even though there have been agreements.
“There’s no mutual defence pact or binding agreement that would, for example, commit Russia to defend Iran in a conflict, nor are there concrete agreements in other strategic areas,” he said.
“The strategic partnership agreement, which is reportedly in its final stages, is expected to focus more on generalities rather than specific mutual commitments. While their growing cooperation undoubtedly presents challenges for the US and Europe, it’s important not to overstate the relationship as a formal alliance. Still, both countries seem eager to continue expanding their cooperation.”
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The Israeli military’s latest wave of airstrikes in Iran dealt a serious blow to the country’s brutal internal security apparatus, opening the door for a potential uprising.
During the strikes, Israel “dropped dozens of munitions on the Basij and internal security command centers that are subject to the Iranian terror regime,” the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement on Wednesday. “The targeted command centers were used by the Iranian regime to maintain control throughout Iran and maintain the regime’s situational assessments.”
Since the start of Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. has hit nearly 2,000 targets as it carries out a sweeping military campaign aimed at dismantling the regime’s security apparatus and neutralizing threats. Adm. Brad Cooper of U.S. Central Command confirmed the number of targets hit in a video message.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij militia, Iran’s volunteer paramilitary force, were behind the violent crackdown on protesters in January. The bloody crackdown saw regime actors firing on crowds and conducting mass arrests of Iranian protesters. Some had seen the protests as a sign that regime change in Iran was getting nearer, though it did not occur.
Smoke rises from central Tehran following reported U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s capital, on March 3, 2026. (Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Israeli and U.S. officials have hinted at the possibility of regime change in Iran as both countries take aim at Tehran’s military and security sites.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video message announcing the launch of Operation Epic Fury, which Israel calls Operation Rising Lion, that it was time for Iranians “to rid themselves of the yoke of tyranny.” Similarly, President Donald Trump said in a message to the Iranian people on Feb. 28 that “the hour of your freedom is at hand.”
“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations,” Trump said.
Plumes of smoke rise following reported explosions in Tehran on March 3, 2026, after Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28, 2026. (Negar/Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)
ISRAELI MINISTER OUTLINES IRAN MISSION GOALS, SAYS IRANIAN PEOPLE NOW HAVE CHANCE TO ‘REGAIN THEIR FREEDOM’
“America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny, and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass,” the president added.
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group, told The Wall Street Journal that the path to regime change through foreign airstrikes and popular uprising on the ground has “a bet that rests on no clear historical model.” Vaez also warned that the idea “ignores the resilience of entrenched authoritarian systems like the Islamic Republic.”
The IDF said on Monday that Israel had hit headquarters, bases and regional command centers that belonged to the regime’s internal security apparatus.
“These bodies were responsible for, among other things, suppressing protests against the regime through violent measures and civilian arrests,” the IDF said.
A group of men inspects the ruins of a police station struck amid the U.S.–Israeli military campaign in Tehran, Iran, on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP)
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It is unclear who will lead Iran after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the operation. Since then, Israel and the U.S. have made it clear that regime leaders chosen to replace him would be targets. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned on Wednesday that anyone chosen to replace Khamenei would be considered “a target for elimination” if they continued to threaten Israel, the U.S. and regional allies.
The killing of key leaders might not be enough to cause an uprising, as the regime has a monopoly on weapons in most of Iran, the WSJ reported, adding that Basij militants are still patrolling the streets.
Fox News Digital’s Morgan Phillips and Efrat Lachter contributed to this report.
Related Article
Global energy markets remain in a state of high alert after several Gulf states suspended oil and gas production following escalating tensions in the region.
Since Saturday’s attacks by the United States and Israel, Tehran has targeted various sites in Israel and across several Gulf countries.
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Initially, these Iranian attacks focused primarily on US military assets, but Gulf states have reported that Iran has since broadened its scope to target civilian infrastructure, including hotels, airports and energy facilities. Iranian officials have publicly denied targeting Gulf energy facilities, however.
The Middle East remains the world’s dominant source of hydrocarbon reserves and a major driver of crude oil and natural gas output.
How much oil and gas does the Middle East have?
Nearly half of the world’s oil reserves and exports come from the Middle East, which contains five of the seven largest oil reserves in the world.
Once refined, crude oil is used to make various products, including petrol, diesel, jet fuel and a wide range of household items such as cleaning products, plastics and even lotions.
After Venezuela, which has 303 billion barrels, Saudi Arabia holds the world’s second-largest proven crude oil reserves, estimated at 267 billion barrels.
The Middle East’s largest oil reserves:
- Saudi Arabia: 267 billion barrels
- Iran: 209 billion barrels
- Iraq: 145 billion barrels
- UAE: 113 billion barrels
- Kuwait: 102 billion barrels
Saudi Arabia is also the world’s top oil exporter with an estimated $187bn of crude in 2024, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC).
The Middle East’s top oil exporters:
- Saudi Arabia: $187bn
- UAE: $114bn
- Iraq: $98bn
- Iran: $47bn – largely sold at a discount due to US sanctions
- Kuwait: 29bn
Other Middle Eastern countries with sizeable oil exports include: Oman ($28.9bn), Kuwait ($28.8bn) and Qatar ($21bn).
In addition to crude oil, the Middle East is a global powerhouse for natural gas, accounting for nearly 18 percent of global production and approximately 40 percent of the world’s proven reserves.
Natural gas is primarily used for electricity generation, industrial heating, and in chemicals and fertilisers.
The heart of Middle Eastern gas is a single, massive underwater reservoir called the South Pars/North Dome field. It is the largest gasfield in the world, and it is shared directly between Qatar and Iran.
Gas is transported either through pipelines or by tankers. When using pipelines, the gas is pressurised and moved through steel networks. When pipelines are not feasible, such as across oceans, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is used.
To create LNG, the gas is cooled to approximately -162C (-260F), shrinking its volume and allowing it to be safely loaded onto specialised tanker ships for global transport.
To transport oil and gas, tankers from various Gulf states must navigate the narrow waterway known as the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas passes through this strait, primarily heading to major markets in Asia, including China, Japan, South Korea and India, as well as to Europe.
Which energy facilities have been attacked?
Here are the facilities which have recorded damage as of Wednesday:
Saudi Arabia – Ras Tanura oil refinery
On Monday, one of the world’s largest oil refining complexes, the Ras Tanura oil refinery owned by Saudi Aramco, was forced to halt operations after debris from intercepted Iranian drones caused a small fire.
Saudi Aramco is one of the world’s largest companies, with a market capitalisation exceeding $1.7 trillion and revenue of $480bn. Headquartered in Dhahran, in eastern Saudi Arabia, Aramco controls 12 percent of global oil production, with a capacity of more than 12 million barrels per day (bpd).
On Wednesday, Saudi defence officials reported a second drone attempt on the facility but this was successfully intercepted with no damage or disruption to operations reported.
Qatar – Ras Laffan Industrial City LNG facilities
On Monday, Qatar’s Ministry of Defence reported that Iranian drones had targeted an energy facility in Ras Laffan belonging to QatarEnergy, the world’s largest LNG producer.
While no casualties were reported, QatarEnergy suspended the production of LNG and other products at the impacted sites.
QatarEnergy’s 81 million metric tonnes of LNG exports are mostly bound for Asian markets, including China, Japan, India, South Korea, Pakistan and other countries in the region. The halt in production hiked global gas prices to a three-year high this week.
Qatar – Mesaieed Industrial City
Qatar’s Defence Ministry said the country was attacked by a second drone launched from Iran on Monday, targeting a water tank belonging to a power plant in Mesaieed, without reporting any casualties.
On Tuesday, QatarEnergy also stopped production of some downstream products like urea, polymers, methanol, aluminium and others.
UAE – Fujairah and Mussafah oil terminals
On Monday, a fire broke out at Mussafah Fuel Terminal in southwest Abu Dhabi after it was struck by a drone.
On Tuesday, falling debris from a drone interception caused a fire at the Fujairah Oil Terminal along the eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates. No injuries were reported.
Oman – ports of Duqm and Salalah
On Tuesday, multiple Iranian drones struck fuel tanks and a tanker at the port of Duqm, with at least one direct hit on a fuel storage tank, causing an explosion.
On the same day, a drone strike was recorded at the Port of Salalah, which handles fuel and industrial minerals.
Athe Nova – oil tanker
On Monday, the Athe Nova, a Honduran-flagged tanker positioned off the coast of Khor Fakkan, UAE, was struck by Iranian drones as it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz, setting it ablaze. Despite the fire, the vessel managed to exit the chokepoint into the Gulf of Oman, and no casualties were reported.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for the strike, identifying the Athe Nova as an “ally of the United States”.
On the same day as the attack, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, warning that any ship attempting to pass would be “set ablaze”.
Since then, several other tankers have been hit.
Other regional energy disruptions
Although not directly targeted, the following energy sites suspended operations in response to Iranian retaliatory attacks:
Israeli offshore gasfields – Major gas production fields such as Leviathan and Tamar were shut down as a precaution following regional drone and missile launches linked to Iran.
Oil fields in semiautonomous Iraqi Kurdistan – Producers including DNO, Gulf Keystone and Dana Gas halted output as a safety measure amid the escalation.
Rumaila oilfield – Operations at Iraq’s largest oilfield – operated by BP – in southern Iraq were halted on Tuesday as a security precaution due to its proximity to the escalation zone.
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