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US economic chokehold on Iran reaches peak leverage as collapse risks emerge

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US economic chokehold on Iran reaches peak leverage as collapse risks emerge

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U.S. economic pressure on Iran has reached one of its most powerful points in decades, but inconsistent enforcement has prevented sanctions from achieving their full impact, according to a former Treasury sanctions expert.

Miad Maleki, who played a central role in Treasury Department sanctions campaigns against Iran and its network of proxy groups, said in an on-camera interview the current moment reflects a rare convergence of economic, political and diplomatic leverage against Tehran.

“We’ve never had the level of leverage that we have today with Iran in the history of our conflict … since 1979,” Maleki said. 

His assessment comes as President Donald Trump signaled escalating pressure Thursday, writing on Truth Social that the United States has “total control over the Strait of Hormuz” and that it is effectively “sealed up tight” until Iran agrees to a deal.

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Maleki argues the current moment marks a turning point because multiple pressure tools — sanctions, a U.S. naval blockade, and tighter enforcement — are being applied simultaneously for the first time in years. Unlike previous cycles, he said, the strategy is now directly targeting Iran’s oil exports and the networks that help move them, raising the risk of a rapid economic squeeze.

He said Iran may run out of oil storage in as little as two to three weeks, forcing production cuts, while gasoline shortages could hit on a similar timeline due to heavy reliance on imports. Combined with an estimated $435 million in daily economic losses, the pressure could spill into the financial system, leaving the regime struggling to pay salaries and raising the risk of renewed unrest.

An oil tanker is seen near the terminal at Kharg Island, Iran, as U.S. officials and analysts consider whether seizing the island could significantly impact Iran’s oil exports. (Ali Mohammadi/Bloomberg)

Maleki said the real leverage lies in sustained economic pressure and enforcement.

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At the core of that pressure is an Iranian economy he describes as “on the verge of collapse,” driven by years of sanctions and compounded by recent disruptions.

He pointed to triple-digit food inflation, a sharply devalued currency and a roughly 90% collapse in purchasing power, along with potential long-term oil revenue losses of up to $14 billion annually.

Maleki, who is currently a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, estimated that current conditions are costing Iran “about $435 million a day in combined economic damage … with the blockade and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”

A key driver of that pressure is the Strait of Hormuz, long viewed as one of Iran’s primary tools of leverage in global energy markets. Maleki said the dynamic has shifted.

IRAN IS ‘TRYING TO GIVE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A HEART ATTACK’ BY CLOSING STRAIT OF HORMUZ, UAE MINISTER SAYS

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President Donald Trump weighs a potential attack on Iran’s oil hub at Kharg Island amid expert predictions of market chaos. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto)

“Iran’s economy relies on the Strait of Hormuz more than any other economy,” he said, calling its closure a form of “economic self-sabotage.”

While countries in Asia — including Japan, South Korea, India and China — are most exposed to disruptions, many have built up reserves. “Japan’s oil reserve is pretty significant. Same with China,” Maleki said.

Still, the region remains heavily dependent on the waterway, with roughly 75% of liquefied natural gas supplies for countries including India, China and South Korea flowing through the strait.

Inside Iran, however, vulnerabilities are more immediate. Despite vast oil reserves, the country imports between 30 million to 60 million liters of gasoline per day to cover a domestic shortfall of up to 35 million liters.

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“If they run out of gasoline… they’re going to have a major crisis domestically,” Maleki said, noting that past shortages and price hikes have triggered widespread protests.

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The economic pressure is being reinforced by a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iran’s oil exports, the regime’s primary source of revenue.

A billboard showing a portrait of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes, looms over an empty square in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, March 5, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP Photo)

A senior administration official said the Treasury Department is intensifying enforcement under what it describes as an “Economic Fury” campaign, using financial and maritime tools in tandem to squeeze Iran’s revenue streams.

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The official said the strategy focuses on “systematically degrading Iran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds,” including by constraining maritime trade through the naval blockade, which targets Iran’s primary source of revenue from oil exports.

Financial pressure is also expanding globally. The official said Treasury has warned banks in China, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and Oman that facilitating Iranian trade could expose them to secondary sanctions, signaling a more aggressive approach to enforcement beyond Iran’s borders.

Treasury has issued sanctions on more than 1,000 targets since 2025 under the current maximum pressure campaign, the official said, aimed at disrupting Iran’s oil trade and financial networks.

The official added that Iran is facing immediate logistical constraints, warning that storage capacity at Kharg Island — the country’s main oil export terminal — could be filled within days if exports remain blocked, potentially forcing production shut-ins.

“Treasury will continue to freeze the funds stolen by the corrupt leadership on behalf of the people of Iran,” the official warned.

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A new analysis from United Against Nuclear Iran said the blockade is already deterring high-value shipments, even as some Iran-linked vessels continue to transit the region.

TRUMP CLAIMS IRAN ‘STARVING FOR CASH,’ ‘COLLAPSING FINANCIALLY’ AFTER EXTENDING CEASEFIRE

Iran seized two oil tankers Thursday while former Iranian minister Ezzatollah Zarghami threatened to make the Strait of Hormuz a “massacre and hell” for U.S. forces. (Giuseppe Cacace/AFP)

“Effectiveness should not be measured by the total number of Iran-linked vessels at sea,” the group said in an April 22 statement. “But by whether the U.S. is disrupting high-value Iranian oil exports… and deterring large-scale illicit shipments.”

At least 29 vessels have been turned around or forced back to port, including several very large crude carriers, according to the report.

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The blockade, announced April 12 and enforced by U.S. Central Command, is designed to cut off Iranian crude exports, particularly shipments to China, while prioritizing high-impact targets.

While sanctions are clearly biting, Maleki said their impact has been limited by inconsistent enforcement across successive U.S. administrations.

U.S. sanctions on Iran have been in place in various forms for years, targeting the country’s oil exports, banking sector and access to global financial systems.

Under the Obama administration, sanctions pressure was partially lifted under the nuclear deal. The first Trump administration reimposed “maximum pressure,” but enforcement ramped up gradually and lasted only a limited period. The Biden administration later eased enforcement in pursuit of diplomacy.

He argued that cycles of tightening and relief — including sanctions rollback under the Iran nuclear deal and pauses in enforcement — have allowed Tehran to adapt.

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“What’s different now,” Maleki said, is the combination of sustained sanctions with real-time enforcement measures that directly restrict Iran’s ability to export oil — a step that was largely absent in earlier phases.

To maximize pressure, Maleki said Washington must sustain enforcement, particularly through secondary sanctions targeting foreign banks and companies facilitating Iranian trade.

Crucially, he downplayed the likelihood that outside powers could offset the pressure.

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Anti-regime protests engulf the streets of Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 6, 2025. (Reuters)

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“I can’t really point to any other nation… that is going to jump in and give the Iranian regime a lifeline,” he said.

“At some point in the next few weeks to a few months, they’re going to face not just gasoline shortages and oil production disruptions, but also a major banking problem to pay salaries of government employees and IRGC personnel,” he said. “Iranians run out of patience again, as they did before, and they’re back on the street. I’m not quite sure if you’re going to have unpaid IRGC forces willing to go back on the street and kill their fellow Iranians who have the same grievances that they have now, which is a collapsed economy.”

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Miley Cyrus, Jisoo, Sabrina Carpenter, Al Pacino and More Photos from the Dior Cruise Show in Los Angeles

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Miley Cyrus, Jisoo, Sabrina Carpenter, Al Pacino and More Photos from the Dior Cruise Show in Los Angeles

Jonathan Anderson gathered some of Hollywood’s most famous faces for the front row at his Dior Cruise Collection 2027 fashion show at Los Angeles’ LACMA on Wednesday night.

Spotted taking their seats underneath the new David Geffen Galleries were Miley Cyrus, Sabrina Carpenter, Al Pacino, Jisoo of Blackpink, Anya Taylor-Joy, Jeff Goldblum, Tracee Ellis Ross, Role Model, Grace Gummer, Dominic Fike, Miranda Kerr, Mikey Madison, Paul W. Downs, Leslie Mann, Miles Teller, Macaulay Culkin and Bill Pullman.

Guests entered LACMA through a simple entrance on Wilshire Boulevard lined on both sides by gaggles of photographers (some were apparently extras hired to act like shutterbugs). Inside, there were large stone-like step-and-repeats for more photos. Attendees were gifted Dior blankets at their seats as well as a mock script titled “Wilshire Boulevard” starring Anderson explaining the show’s noir theme and looks.

An after-party took place at Chateau Marmont.

Miley Cyrus told me she was grateful Anderson chose her hometown for the event. “I love that they came to L.A.,” she said. “That’s the best part.”

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Of her all-denim look, the Grammy winner said, “What I love about L.A. is that it’s casual, so just stopping by to enjoy. Not overdone.”

Meanwhile, following the success of her “Hannah Montana 20th Anniversary Special,” I asked Cyrus if a reboot of the Disney Channel sitcom was in the works. “I don’t know about all that,” she said, smiling.

Cyrus cracked, “You always get me in trouble.”

Cyrus has credited my question about her possible plans to mark the two-decade milestone earlier in the year that prompted her and Disney to develop the special.

Tracee Ellis Ross also said she was “so pleased” the show took place in Los Angeles: “I don’t have to get on a plane.”

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See all the best celebrity looks at the Dior fashion show below.

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Non-Jewish professor says he was fired for calling out Hamas supporters in online post

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Non-Jewish professor says he was fired for calling out Hamas supporters in online post

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A non-Jewish Canadian professor says he was fired from his university for defending Israel in a social media post as antisemitism exploded across Canada following Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist attacks.

Paul Finlayson told Fox News Digital that he lost his job at Canada’s University of Guelph-Humber after taking a strong stance online about the massacre and kidnapping of Israelis and foreigners — including Americans and Canadians.

Finlayson responded in November of 2023 to a LinkedIn message from an overseas educator who he said was “calling for the eradication of Israel.” Though the author later deleted his post and all corresponding comments, the National Post quoted from Finlayson’s response in a December 2023 article.

“If you say ‘from the River to the Sea’, you’re a Nazi,” Finlayson wrote. “I’m not neutral. I stand with Israel. I stand against antisemites who want nothing but dead Jews: who take millions from their education and health care budgets and spend it on making war…You stand with Palestine means you stand with Hitler. You don’t want peace, you want dead Jews…They murdered 1,400 innocents and took 250 hostages and the people celebrated rapist monsters as heroes.”

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RECORD ANTISEMITIC INCIDENTS IN CANADA FUEL CRITICISM OF CARNEY GOVERNMENT RESPONSE

Paul Finlayson says he lost his job after taking a strong stance online against the Hamas terror attacks on Israel. (Paul Finlayson )

Since the post, Finlayson says he has faced a targeted campaign against him which has affected his professional standing and job prospects. 

Finlayson said that students at the school found his LinkedIn reply before the post’s author erased the thread, leading to outcry. While meeting with a student in his office on Nov. 27, Finlayson said an administrator waited outside, eventually presenting him with a suspension letter.

A copy of the suspension letter, provided by Finlayson, cites “inappropriate online comments” and places the professor “on leave pending the outcome of the investigation.” It directed Finlayson not to contact “any of your departmental staff or students or broader members of the [university].”

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Finlayson said he was “very well-liked” by students, who ranked him among the highest in the business department faculty. He said that rumors about the accusations against him destroyed his academic reputation, which included formulating courses and writing textbooks.

“My trial has been by defamation, and it continues by defamation,” Finlayson said of the “Kafkaesque” situation that ensued.

FEDERAL PROBE CLAIMS UNIVERSITIES ARE ‘LEGITIMIZING AND AMPLIFYING ANTISEMITISM’

Anti-Israel protesters hold antisemitic posters in Edmonton, Alberta, on April 13, 2025. (Artur Widak/NurPhoto)

He says that his union, OPSEU Local 562, refused to represent him. The union did not respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

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Finlayson was officially fired by the university in July 2025. He provided a copy of his termination letter, which stated that after a “formal complaint of discrimination and harassment,” an investigator found that his “conduct violated the Ontario Human Rights Code and Humber’s Human Rights and Harassment Policy, and that [he] engaged in reprisal under both of those instruments.”

The Humber harassment policy states that “anyone who attempts Reprisal or threatens Reprisal against a person who initiates a complaint or participates in proceedings under this Policy may be subject to disciplinary action.”

The same policy says that “Humber upholds and supports the right to equal treatment without Discrimination” based on prohibited grounds, which include antisemitism.

CANADA’S ANTISEMITISM ENVOY RESIGNS, CITING EXHAUSTION AMID HATE SURGE

Temple Emanu-El in Toronto was shot at on March 3, 2026. No injuries were reported. (Nick Lachance/Toronto Star via Getty Images)

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The University of Guelph-Humber did not respond to Fox News Digital’s questions about Finlayson’s suspension, investigation and firing, and about whether anti-Israel posts shared by its students and a professor at the University violate the Humber Human Rights and Harassment Policy.

The University of Guelph’s “UofGforPalestine” Instagram page, which presents itself as the account of “students, staff, and faculty who stand in solidarity with Palestine,” has shared posts with the inverted red triangle that Hamas uses to mark targets. Like the U.S., Canada designates Hamas as a terror group.

In November 2024, the group shared photos on its Instagram account of a guillotine that “appeared on a walking path” in Guelph, which featured photos of the heads of Canadian, American and Israeli leaders coated in red paint. Though purported to be an “anonymous submission,” the post notes its “message” as “Death to empire, death to colonialism and imperialism, death to the war machine.”

The University of Guelph Humber in Ontario, Canada.  (Google Maps)

A University of Guelph-Humber professor whom Finlayson believes brought the case against him has posted inflammatory rhetoric on his own LinkedIn account, calling Israel a “terrorist state,” and stating that the world “cannot have both” peace and Israel.

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The professor did not respond to Fox News Digital’s requests for comment.

While Finlayson lost his position, elsewhere in Canada, activism led to starkly different circumstances for three staffers at York University, who were among 11 individuals charged with “hate-motivated mischief” in Nov 2023 for plastering a bookstore with photos accusing a Jewish CEO of genocide, and splashing the store with red paint, as reported by the National Post.

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Though they were initially suspended from the school, at least two staff members appear to have current profiles on the York University website. One, a professor, most recently taught courses at the school in the Winter 2026 semester. York University did not respond to requests for comment about its restoration of staff members’ roles.

Since the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks, antisemitism has exploded in Canada. In April, B’nai Brith Canada’s League for Human Rights released a report showing that 6,800 antisemitic incidents took place in the country in 2025, representing a 9.4% increase over 2024. On average, this represented 18.6 incidents a day and was the “highest volume” the group has recorded since it began tracking incidents.

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Russia’s prison population falls by 180,000 since start of Ukraine war

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Russia’s prison population falls by 180,000 since start of Ukraine war

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The number of prisoners in Russia has dropped by more than 180,000 over five years, in part driven by Moscow sending convicts to fight in Ukraine, Russia’s prison chief said on Thursday.

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In four years of war, Russia has offered prisoners army contracts to fight in Ukraine and buy out their sentences, should they survive.

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Russia, which has a massive prison network inherited from Soviet labour camps, has one of the world’s largest convict populations, though that number has been decreasing in the last 20 years.

“If at the end of 2021 there were 465,000 (prisoners), then now there are 282,000,” the head of Russia’s penitentiary service, Arkady Gostev, said, according to the TASS state news agency.

That represents a drop of nearly 40%.

Around 85,000 of the current prison population is held in pre-trial detention, he added.

Gostev said the decline was in part driven by the army’s recruitment drive, but also due to more suspended sentences and other forms of punishment handed out.

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Prisoners returning from the Ukraine front have led to an increase in crime and social tension in Russia.

Gostev also said thousands of prisoners were working on production sites in support of the army, contributing to the country’s wartime economy.

Russian prisoners are often made to work, in a system inherited from the Soviet Gulag.

“Over the course of the year, we had additionally deployed 16,000 inmates for these (army) purposes, specifically for manufacturing,” TASS quoted Gostev as saying.

“We produce goods for the special military operation (worth) around 5.5 billion rubles (€64 million),” he said, using Moscow’s term for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

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“The volume of production (at prison sites) in 2025 amounted to 47 billion rubles (€548 million),” he said, without elaborating how much of it was for army needs.

Russia has experienced a shortage of workers during its offensive, with hundreds of thousands of men at the front and a similar amount fleeing the country due to mobilisation.

Additional sources • AFP

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