On Saturday, Gazans in Deir al-Balah will go to the polls to elect new local leaders for the first time in 2o years, a move experts warn could allow Hamas room to maintain influence as it refuses to comply with ceasefire disarmament terms.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies Executive Director Jonathan Schanzer told Fox News Digital that “when you hold elections in the Palestinian Authority and the timing’s not right and the circumstances are still dicey, you get Hamas victories.”

Schanzer said the Bush administration’s 2006 decision to advocate for elections “led to Hamas winning, and it led to a standoff which led to a civil war.” 

“You’ve got to be really careful when it comes to holding elections with a territory like Gaza in particular, where Hamas has so much control, and where terrorist organizations are still considered to be legitimate players,” Schanzer added. 

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Gazan journalists and media personnel continue to be posthumously identified as members of terrorist groups, highlighting the difficulty of distinguishing terror affiliates from civilians.

Four parties are contesting the election in Deir al-Balah. To be eligible, candidates were asked to accept the Palestine Liberation Organization and the terms of agreements it has previously made, including recognition of the State of Israel and endorsement of a two-state solution, according to reporting by the Center for Peace Communications.

However, many are concerned that one party, Deir al-Balah Unites Us, is affiliated with Hamas. Two of its candidates have been pictured with Hamas officials or police officers.

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, posted on X that “holding elections in Gaza at this time is extremely reckless and irresponsible,” noting that “Gazans are being arrested, jailed, tortured, shot, and killed daily for social media posts and anything they say that’s perceived as being critical of Hamas. 

“These elections should be halted and prevented from proceeding, for they are meddling with the transition process that the Board of Peace, [National Council for the Administration of Gaza], and the international community have planned for Gaza, with Hamas’s disarmament and relinquishment of power being the first necessary step.”

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Disarmament of Hamas, a key demand within the second phase of President Donald Trump’s ceasefire agreement, has yet to be completed. Reports indicate that Hamas has increased its hold in Gaza as of March, continuing to tax locals, building education system and placing police throughout the territory it holds.

Schanzer said Hamas is unlikely to hand over its arms. If it were to do so, he said that they “will try to make distinctions between weapons,” possibly offering to give up heavy weapons like RPGs while maintaining a large arsenal of automatic weapons.

Hamas appears to have made a partial disarmament offer. The New York Times reported April 19 that two Hamas officials said they would hand over thousands of weapons from their police force and other security institutions. The officials “did not provide a clear answer” when asked if weapons from Hamas’ so-called military wing would be included.

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Schanzer pushed back on claims that Hamas’ political and military wings operate separately. 

“That is a fiction. The idea that they are separate in any way or that there is a firewall between them is asinine.” He said that this is “a distinction that has been made up by the West in order to be able to have political relations with Hamas, or to justify elections. It’s a mistake to buy into that fiction.”

Schanzer said weakening Iran could be key to minimizing Hamas’ influence. 

“The psychological impact of their top patron being defeated on the battlefield, I can’t overstate how important that event could be,” he said. “It would be a gut punch to Hamas.”

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With Israel controlling about 53% of the Gaza Strip and Hamas the remaining 47%, Schanzer said, “We could continue to see the erosion of Hamas control” amid the “slow and steady process of Israel winning on the ground.” 

He said patience, though, is necessary, adding that “the enemies of the United States and Israel and the West have a very different timeline. They want to wait out everybody because they know that we’d like to move on.”

The Trump administration did not respond to Fox News Digital’s questions about whether a partial disarmament would satisfy its ceasefire terms or if it would take action to stall elections until there’s more stability in Gaza

U.S. economic pressure on Iran has reached one of its most powerful points in decades, but inconsistent enforcement has prevented sanctions from achieving their full impact, according to a former Treasury sanctions expert.

Miad Maleki, who played a central role in Treasury Department sanctions campaigns against Iran and its network of proxy groups, said in an on-camera interview the current moment reflects a rare convergence of economic, political and diplomatic leverage against Tehran.

“We’ve never had the level of leverage that we have today with Iran in the history of our conflict … since 1979,” Maleki said. 

His assessment comes as President Donald Trump signaled escalating pressure Thursday, writing on Truth Social that the United States has “total control over the Strait of Hormuz” and that it is effectively “sealed up tight” until Iran agrees to a deal.

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Maleki argues the current moment marks a turning point because multiple pressure tools — sanctions, a U.S. naval blockade, and tighter enforcement — are being applied simultaneously for the first time in years. Unlike previous cycles, he said, the strategy is now directly targeting Iran’s oil exports and the networks that help move them, raising the risk of a rapid economic squeeze.

He said Iran may run out of oil storage in as little as two to three weeks, forcing production cuts, while gasoline shortages could hit on a similar timeline due to heavy reliance on imports. Combined with an estimated $435 million in daily economic losses, the pressure could spill into the financial system, leaving the regime struggling to pay salaries and raising the risk of renewed unrest.

Maleki said the real leverage lies in sustained economic pressure and enforcement.

At the core of that pressure is an Iranian economy he describes as “on the verge of collapse,” driven by years of sanctions and compounded by recent disruptions.

He pointed to triple-digit food inflation, a sharply devalued currency and a roughly 90% collapse in purchasing power, along with potential long-term oil revenue losses of up to $14 billion annually.

Maleki, who is currently a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, estimated that current conditions are costing Iran “about $435 million a day in combined economic damage … with the blockade and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”

A key driver of that pressure is the Strait of Hormuz, long viewed as one of Iran’s primary tools of leverage in global energy markets. Maleki said the dynamic has shifted.

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“Iran’s economy relies on the Strait of Hormuz more than any other economy,” he said, calling its closure a form of “economic self-sabotage.”

While countries in Asia — including Japan, South Korea, India and China — are most exposed to disruptions, many have built up reserves. “Japan’s oil reserve is pretty significant. Same with China,” Maleki said.

Still, the region remains heavily dependent on the waterway, with roughly 75% of liquefied natural gas supplies for countries including India, China and South Korea flowing through the strait.

Inside Iran, however, vulnerabilities are more immediate. Despite vast oil reserves, the country imports between 30 million to 60 million liters of gasoline per day to cover a domestic shortfall of up to 35 million liters.

“If they run out of gasoline… they’re going to have a major crisis domestically,” Maleki said, noting that past shortages and price hikes have triggered widespread protests.

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The economic pressure is being reinforced by a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iran’s oil exports, the regime’s primary source of revenue.

A senior administration official said the Treasury Department is intensifying enforcement under what it describes as an “Economic Fury” campaign, using financial and maritime tools in tandem to squeeze Iran’s revenue streams.

The official said the strategy focuses on “systematically degrading Iran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds,” including by constraining maritime trade through the naval blockade, which targets Iran’s primary source of revenue from oil exports.

Financial pressure is also expanding globally. The official said Treasury has warned banks in China, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and Oman that facilitating Iranian trade could expose them to secondary sanctions, signaling a more aggressive approach to enforcement beyond Iran’s borders.

Treasury has issued sanctions on more than 1,000 targets since 2025 under the current maximum pressure campaign, the official said, aimed at disrupting Iran’s oil trade and financial networks.

The official added that Iran is facing immediate logistical constraints, warning that storage capacity at Kharg Island — the country’s main oil export terminal — could be filled within days if exports remain blocked, potentially forcing production shut-ins.

“Treasury will continue to freeze the funds stolen by the corrupt leadership on behalf of the people of Iran,” the official warned.

A new analysis from United Against Nuclear Iran said the blockade is already deterring high-value shipments, even as some Iran-linked vessels continue to transit the region.

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“Effectiveness should not be measured by the total number of Iran-linked vessels at sea,” the group said in an April 22 statement. “But by whether the U.S. is disrupting high-value Iranian oil exports… and deterring large-scale illicit shipments.”

At least 29 vessels have been turned around or forced back to port, including several very large crude carriers, according to the report.

The blockade, announced April 12 and enforced by U.S. Central Command, is designed to cut off Iranian crude exports, particularly shipments to China, while prioritizing high-impact targets.

While sanctions are clearly biting, Maleki said their impact has been limited by inconsistent enforcement across successive U.S. administrations.

U.S. sanctions on Iran have been in place in various forms for years, targeting the country’s oil exports, banking sector and access to global financial systems.

Under the Obama administration, sanctions pressure was partially lifted under the nuclear deal. The first Trump administration reimposed “maximum pressure,” but enforcement ramped up gradually and lasted only a limited period. The Biden administration later eased enforcement in pursuit of diplomacy.

He argued that cycles of tightening and relief — including sanctions rollback under the Iran nuclear deal and pauses in enforcement — have allowed Tehran to adapt.

“What’s different now,” Maleki said, is the combination of sustained sanctions with real-time enforcement measures that directly restrict Iran’s ability to export oil — a step that was largely absent in earlier phases.

To maximize pressure, Maleki said Washington must sustain enforcement, particularly through secondary sanctions targeting foreign banks and companies facilitating Iranian trade.

Crucially, he downplayed the likelihood that outside powers could offset the pressure.

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“I can’t really point to any other nation… that is going to jump in and give the Iranian regime a lifeline,” he said.

“At some point in the next few weeks to a few months, they’re going to face not just gasoline shortages and oil production disruptions, but also a major banking problem to pay salaries of government employees and IRGC personnel,” he said. “Iranians run out of patience again, as they did before, and they’re back on the street. I’m not quite sure if you’re going to have unpaid IRGC forces willing to go back on the street and kill their fellow Iranians who have the same grievances that they have now, which is a collapsed economy.”