Economists with Cal State Fullerton say local and U.S. economies will see inflation rise as they absorb the ongoing supply shock from rising fuel costs caused by the Iran war, further cooling the already frigid homebuying market.

On Thursday, April 30, economists Anil Puri and Mira Farka revised their predictions for the year, writing in a semi-annual report that they expect inflation to climb into “the high-3s,” up from the previously anticipated 3.5% in the year’s first three months.

Puri told the Southern California News Group that he expects housing sales to slow in Orange County, especially if mortgage rates stay above 6%.

Also see: California homebuying falls below Great Recession lows

“Housing prices went up so much in the last few years, but they seem to have taken a little breather now,” Puri said. “Housing prices are under stress. We see only moderate improvement in housing in 2026.”

The theme throughout the 71-page report was a slowing economy that is dealing with higher fuel costs as a result of tighter crude oil supplies flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world’s oil supplies pass through the shipping route.

The economists also wrote that growth in the U.S. is expected to slow to the “low-2s in the middle of the year” with the outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond appearing “brighter.” That prediction is already hitting the mark. The federal government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said April 30 that GDP expanded at 2% rate in the first quarter.

“The U.S. economy is very well insulated and is coming out of the war with fewer bruises,” Farka told SCNG. “I know this is cold comfort with a lot of people hurting who are paying $7 or $8 gas prices, but there are a lot of cushions to lessen the impacts. U.S. consumers are still hanging strong.”

One such cushion are tax cuts from last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, designed to boost consumer spending — money that now seems to be paying for those higher fuel costs, Farka said.

The annual inflation rate for 2025 was 2.7% versus 2.9% the year before. Inflation has edged higher from 2.4% in the first two months of 2026 to 3.3% in March — a month after the Feb. 28 war was launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran. Growth in the economy was tepid last year, coming in at 2.1%, with a forecast by the economists made last fall of 2.4% for 2026.

The 2-month-old Iran war pushed the average price of gas in California to $6.060 a gallon on Friday, up 30% from $4.674 a gallon on the day after the war began, according to AAA Fuel Prices. In Orange County, the average price for regular gas reached $6.12 per gallon. Nationally, gas prices shot up 41% to $4.392 a gallon from $3.11 over the same period.

Local highlights

Business sentiment: The Woods Center index of Orange County business sentiment — based on a quarterly survey of Orange County executives — shows “modest improvement” in business sentiment in both national and regional economies heading into the 2026 second quarter. The Iran war was ongoing in the second half of March when the survey was administered.

According to the survey, 29.2% of executives expect industry activity to improve — more than double the 13% reported in the previous quarter.  At the same time, the share anticipating a downturn declined to 24.6%, down from 31%.

Inflation: Overall, more than two thirds of respondents expect inflation to remain below 3% by year-end. Specifically, 26.1% of respondents expect inflation to come in below 2.5%, while 40% anticipate a range of 2.5% to 3%. Another 20% place inflation between 3% and 3.5%. Only 7.7% expect a range of 3.5% to 4%, and just 6.2% foresee inflation exceeding 4%.

Iran war impact: Survey respondents were asked to assess the impact of the ongoing conflict with Iran on their businesses.  A majority — 55.4% — reported no direct effects. But the early signs of pressure are evident. Roughly one-quarter of respondents cited shifts in demand for their products, while a similar share pointed to rising transportation costs driven by higher fuel prices.

Additionally, 9.2% reported supply chain disruptions, and an equal share noted that elevated energy costs are beginning to weigh on operations.

Last summer, Senate Republicans attempted to sell off millions of acres of federal public land as part of the budget reconciliation process. Now, a group of Western Democratic senators wants to send a clear message that this cannot happen again. 

“Public lands are owned by the American people and are managed to provide perpetual benefits that far outlast a 10-year budget period, a Senate career or even our lifetimes,” said Colorado Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet on a Thursday, April 30, press call. “In Colorado, they are part of our DNA, the foundation of our economy and treasured parts of our culture, geography and history … The idea of selling them is insane and something that I will never stop fighting.” 

Bennet introduced a new bill called the Public Lands Integrity Act this week alongside Sens. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., Ron Wyden, D-Ore., and Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., to bar public land sales from being included in any future reconciliation processes. 

The Colorado senator said this was an appropriate venue for preventing public land sales, “because  it is this process that (Sen.) Mike Lee used to try to basically terrorize the Senate last year over this issue.” 

Lee, a Republican Senator from Utah, spearheaded the effort to mandate the sale of between 2 million and 3 million acres of U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management lands in 11 Western states, purportedly for housing and “community needs” as part of the “One Big, Beautiful Act” last June. In Colorado, the sales could have impacted the 16 million acres managed by the Forest Service and the 8.3 million acres managed by the Bureau. 

Ultimately, it was opposition from congressional Republicans, Democrats and members of the public to the sale proposal — and the Senate parliamentarian ruling it improper for the budget reconciliation bill — that led the provision to be stripped from the final package. 

The new legislation introduced by Bennet would make public land sales a seventh exception to the Byrd Rule, which establishes guardrails to what senators can include in a reconciliation process. It is the Senate parliamentarian — a nonpartisan, appointed advisor who is often described as a referee — who makes determinations based on the Byrd Rule. 

Last year, Lee’s proposed public land sale was found in violation of the Byrd Rule’s requirement that all items in a reconciliation package must have a direct and substantive impact on federal spending or revenues.  

As Lee and other congressional Republicans continue to push for privatizing public lands, Bennet has defended the proposed legislation as necessary.

“Sen. Lee’s proposal was a radical idea, but he’s been clear ever since that he’s not giving up the fight to sell off our treasured public lands — and we aren’t done either,” Bennet said. “Public lands must be off the table to pay for short-term, partisan spending.”

Colorado House Speaker Julie McCluskie, D-Dillon, spoke in favor of the federal legislation on Thursday’s press call.

“More than $17 billion of our economy is driven by our outdoor recreation usage and the connection that so many people feel with nature,” McCluskie said. “More than 130,000 jobs rely on access to our public lands. And just as importantly, our public lands define who we are as Coloradans. It is really a testament to the spirit of the West when you can get out into the great outdoors, connect with nature and understand how really serene and beautiful these special places are.” 

For the second year in a row, Colorado’s legislature introduced and passed a joint resolution opposing “all efforts” that “directly or indirectly diminish the public’s voice, access and recourse in the management of national public lands,” including widespread land sales and “erosion of bedrock laws” such as the Federal Land Policy and Management Act and the National Environmental Policy Act. 

While it did have some dissenting votes — from 15 Republican representatives and eight Republican senators — legislators from both parties supported the resolution. 

Bill Fales, a Carbondale rancher who owns a cattle operation that straddles Garfield and Pitkin counties, spoke of the importance of public land access for producers, especially in Western Slope counties like Pitkin, where nearly 85% of the land is federally owned. 

“Every family ranch in the valley that I know of — well, I know almost everyone from Rifle clear to Aspen — every one of them relies on public land grazing. It’s the only land there is,” Fales said, adding that cattlemen were called on to support Sen. Lee’s federal land proposal because they could buy the land themselves. 

“That is just totally ludicrous, the idea that a small family ranch will outbid the insane number of billionaires and oil companies who also treasure this land,” Fales said. “It would end multiple use on these public lands and/or federal land grazing, and the important recreation economy.”

Bennet was optimistic about the act’s chances due in part to the widespread support of public lands. Several Western Slope county commissioners expressed support for the act in a Thursday news release.

 “Our public lands, which represent 85% of our county, nourish critical wildlife habitat for fish, bird, elk and bear populations, serve as the backbone of a thriving recreational economy, and inspire the love and awe we have for this place we call home,” said Jeffrey Woodruff, Pitkin County Commissioner. “We are stewards of this land. Our residents, international visitors, and the over 40 million Americans who depend upon the Colorado River, all trust that public land will be a vital resource, not just today, but for all of the generations to come.”

Public land sales are widely opposed in the West regardless of political affiliation, according to the 2026 Conservation in the West Poll — an annual survey of eight western states, including Colorado, on environmental issues. Around 80% of the Colorodans surveyed expressed opposition to public land sales for housing development and to private companies for oil, gas and mining development. Similar rates of opposition were reported in all the states surveyed. 

“There was a time when we were passing, every generation was passing, strong bipartisan public lands bills,” Bennet said. “That has been stopped in recent years by the Republicans, particularly by Sen. Lee and Sen. (Ted) Cruz, (R-Texas), and I hope someday we actually get back into the business of passing bipartisan bills, so we can protect more land, so we can pass bills like the GORP Act.” 

Bennet introduced the GORP Act, or Gunnison Outdoor Resource Protection, last year to add protections to more than 700,000 acres of public land in and around Gunnison County. 

“In the meantime, what we’ve got to do is make sure that they know that we’re gonna fight every single effort to sell off the public lands of the United States, and that’s what the Public Lands Integrity Act is meant to do,” he added. 

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – The Hawaiʻi State Senate and House of Representatives on Thursday approved House Bill No. 1800 CD1, the state’s supplemental budget bill for the fiscal biennium 2025-2027.

The measure was finalized in a joint conference committee after both chambers initially passed different versions. The bill will now be up for final reading in both chambers before heading to the Governor’s desk for his signature.

The appropriations are as follows:

General Fund

Fiscal Year 2026: $10.42 billion

Fiscal Year 2027: $10.63 billion

All Means of Financing

Fiscal Year 2026: $19.77 billion

Fiscal Year 2027: $20.31 billion

“This budget uses cost-saving measures to help keep our promise to address the high cost of living and deliver meaningful tax reform to Hawaii’s citizens, especially our working- and middle-class families. At the same time, we are strengthening the State’s resilience through responsible long-term investments that promote regional economic development and environmental stewardship,” said Senator Donovan M. Dela Cruz, Chair of the Senate Committee on Ways and Means (Senate District 17 – Portion of Mililani, Mililani Mauka, portion of Waipi‘o Acres, Launani Valley, Wahiawā, Whitmore Village).

“The CIP budget reflects our commitment to protecting health and safety, preserving and modernizing state facilities, and investing in the critical infrastructure and public assets our communities rely on. These investments also support affordable housing, strengthen education, and advance economic development that will help sustain thriving communities across Hawai‘i,” stated Senator Sharon Y. Moriwaki, Vice Chair of the Senate Committee on Ways and Means (Senate District 12 – Waikīkī, Ala Moana, Kaka‘ako, McCully).

“This budget reflects the House’s continued collaboration with the Administration and the Senate to take a balanced, responsible approach to preserving core government services and strengthening our safety net for Hawaiʻi’s residents—especially those who rely on these services as a lifeline,” said Representative Chris Todd, Chair of the House Committee on Finance (House District 3 – portions of Hilo, Keaukaha, Orchidlands Estate, Ainaloa, Hawaiian Acres, Fern Acres, and parts of Kurtistown and Kea‘au). “It prioritizes critical needs across housing, agriculture, natural resources, transportation, public safety, and economic development, setting a strong foundation as we respond to federal funding cuts that have impacted Hawaiʻi and required the state to urgently step up to support our residents.”