Business
Stocks and Oil Prices Sent Conflicting Signals in April Amid Havoc of Iran War
Lately, financial markets appear confused.
Oil prices recently hit their highest level since the start of the war in Iran, stoking broad worries about inflation and a global energy crisis.
Yet, it has been the best month for the stock market of President Trump’s second term. The S&P 500 ended April nearly 10 percent higher than where it ended March.
The last time the index rose more than 10 percent in a month was in November 2020, after Joseph R. Biden Jr. was elected president and early trials for Covid-19 vaccines showed promising results. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose a further 0.5 percent, putting it on course for a fifth straight week of gains.
To many outside observers, it seems incongruous that the oil market can be sending such a dour signal, while stocks reflect a strong sense of investor optimism.
But in this unusual moment, according to analysts and traders, bullish and bearish market signals can both be true.
While the stock market reacts to day-to-day news, it is primarily concerned with how that news affects the longer-term outlook for company earnings. Stocks initially fell when the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, reflecting uncertainty about the war’s duration, its impact on energy supplies and the fallout for corporate America.
Stocks began to rise again after the Trump administration and Iran started to de-escalate at the end of March, moving toward a cease-fire on April 8. The standoff between the countries has not ended, a peace agreement has not been reached, but for stock investors, the expectation is that the disruption to oil markets and supply chains won’t last much longer.
And the economic impact of the war, at least as far as the United States is concerned, has been manageable. Data on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 2 percent in the first three months of this year, boosted by spending on infrastructure by many of the big tech companies that have led the S&P 500 stock index to repeated new highs.
This week, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta, which collectively account for 20 percent of the S&P 500’s market value, said they had spent a combined $130 billion on data centers. The share prices of these members of the so-called Magnificent 7, a group of companies that also include Apple, Nvidia and Tesla, rose nearly 15 percent in April.
Strong earnings in other industries have also buoyed the market. Roughly a third of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported their financial results for the first quarter, and their average growth in earnings stands at roughly 15 percent, on course for a sixth straight double-digit quarterly rise.
Oil prices are a much shorter-term measure of investor sentiment than stock indexes. The oil market is primarily traded using futures contracts, which are derivatives that fix the price today for delivery at a specified date in the future. The most frequently cited oil prices refer to the next month or two. That means that changes in the conflict that could extend or shorten its duration by a few weeks show up in the price of oil but not necessarily in the stock market. Oil traders are fixated on the price of a barrel of crude in July, for example, while pension fund managers are thinking about market returns many years in the future.
This week, a deadlock over the future of Iran’s nuclear program appeared to threaten the fragile cease-fire with the United States, helping to push the price of Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, to a four-year high, of over $120 per barrel on Thursday.
But investors appear to anticipate some sort of resolution the further out they look. Futures contracts for deliveries of Brent crude in December still trade below $90 a barrel.
“While the geopolitical environment remains fluid on a day-to-day basis, markets appear to be assigning a higher probability to a relatively near-term U.S. exit from the Middle East, alongside a normalization in global supply chains that could ultimately pressure oil prices lower,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.
The timing of the Trump administration’s announcements of important changes in policy in the conflict with Iran have, to some extent, exacerbated the appearance of market moves — both on the way down and the way back up.
The war began after the market closed on the final day of February and the cease-fire was announced on the final day of March, so the stock market’s losses were concentrated in March and the recovery almost entirely captured in April.
There are reasons for trepidation among stock investors as the war enters its third month.
The conflict could drag on for longer than is currently expected. Oil prices with Brent futures contracts from September through November have all started to rise, moving above $90 in just over the past week. Although that means traders still expect the price of oil to drift downward in the coming months, crude is increasingly expected to stay elevated for longer, weighing on the economy. The government’s bond market also shows signs of lingering inflation risks stemming from the war, analysts have noted.
Many investors have also expressed a lack of conviction in the current rally, which is evident in the way investors are trading. Stock market trading volumes have been subdued through April, with some investors saying they have turned to the derivatives market to place bets on the market going higher, allowing them to profit if the rally continues but limit losses if the market falls again.
“As long as the economy continues to grow and companies are able to grow earnings, we can see higher stock prices even in the face of higher energy prices and inflation,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. “However, the longer the war drags on, the more investors will grow nervous and we could see some pullbacks as fears ebb and flow.”
Business
The FBI serves a search warrant at the Garden Grove chemical plant
Federal Bureau of Investigation officers served a search warrant Wednesday at the Garden Grove chemical plant, where a compromised tank containing toxic chemicals threatened to leak or explode, resulting in the evacuation of nearby residents in May.
“We are cooperating with authorities at our Garden Grove facility and will continue to do so,” a spokesperson of GKN Aerospace, which operates the facility, said in an email statement.
Laura Eimiller, an FBI spokesperson, said FBI agents are serving a search warrant as part of an ongoing investigation into the Garden Grove aerospace business.
GKN Aerospace is a division of Melrose Industries, a U.K.-based aerospace company that manufactures aircraft parts.
In May, at the manufacturing facility, which stores thousands of gallons of toxic chemicals in pressurized tanks used to produce materials such as plexiglass for fighter jet and commercial aircraft windows, one tank threatened to leak or explode.
Over 50,000 residents were temporarily evacuated as officials investigated the potential for an explosion for days. They found that a crack in the compromised tank released the pressure buildup inside the storage unit, which ruled out the possibility of an explosion, and allowed residents to return to their homes.
The compromised tank threatened to blow up, affecting adjacent tanks also containing the toxic chemical methyl methacrylate which could have caused a large-scale public safety emergency. Still, plans to remove the remaining MMA chemical tanks from the facility have been postponed, and no new date has been announced yet.
Residents who were impacted by the evacuation have already filed multiple class action lawsuits against the company, alleging negligence at the manufacturing facility and seeking compensation for loss of use of homes and diminished property value. Now, federal officials will investigate possible violations and factors that could have contributed to the incident.
According to the FBI warrant, the officers will seize items in violation of measures to prevent the accidental release of hazardous substances into the air.
The warrant allows FBI officers the discretion to search digital devices or seize and transport them as part of the investigation.
Business
Rivian begins deliveries of cheaper electric vehicles
Electric-vehicle maker Rivian began delivery of a cheaper SUV on Tuesday as it aims to take customers from Tesla and others.
The long-anticipated R2, which will eventually be available for less than $45,000, could help boost the market share of the Irvine company better known for vehicles priced around $77,000.
The first R2s to roll off the company’s production line in Normal, Ill., are the performance version, starting at $57,990. Rivian said the R2 Premium will arrive in late 2026 for around $54,000, followed by an R2 Standard version in 2027 priced at $44,990.
“Rivian is really trying to prove its worth,” said Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds. “They’ve gone past that initial stage and are hoping to move on to mass market products.”
The R2 Performance is still an expensive vehicle for many Americans, but it’s a step down from Rivian’s nearly $77,000 R1S. It’s typical for an automaker to launch the most expensive version of a new vehicle first, experts said.
Whether the R2 will be the success Rivian is hoping for won’t become clear until late 2027, once the standard versions are widely available. Chief Executive RJ Scaringe said the company is aiming to compete with not just other EV makers, but also traditional auto companies such as Jeep and Subaru.
“More mainstream people are going to be in on the R2, especially for the lower-priced models,” auto analyst Brian Moody said. “You’re always going to have early adopters, but there’s a lot more customers to go around in the $45,000 to $55,000 range.”
According to Cox Automotive, the average transaction price for a new EV in the U.S. is $55,000, compared with $49,000 for a gas-powered vehicle. Used EV sales have been surging lately because of their value, with an average transaction price of around $36,000.
Though there’s significant hype surrounding the launch of R2, investors have been unimpressed. Rivian shares fell 7% on Tuesday.
There has been a broad cooling of the EV market. Major automakers including Honda and Ford have cut back their EV options as excitement for the vehicles has fallen under the Trump administration. A $7,500 EV tax credit for new vehicles expired in September.
Drury added that an announcement of a new product would generally generate more buzz than the first deliveries of a vehicle that’s already been in the public eye.
“This is simply them delivering on a promise, and the market itself is not what it was when they had first conjured up the vehicle,” Drury said.
Rivian lost $3.6 billion last year and hasn’t been profitable since its founding in 2009. Scaringe said the company will reach profitability on a per-unit production basis with the R2 this year, but estimated that the company won’t turn an overall profit until closer to 2030.
Karl Brauer, an auto industry expert at ISeeCars.com, said the premium and standard versions of the R2 probably will sell in much higher volumes than the performance version.
“It’s in theory an exciting moment, because they’re launching this new version, but it’s the expensive one,” Brauer said. “There’s no indication in my mind that there will be huge, high-volume sales.”
Business
Primm is a spooky shell of its former self. But the gambling oasis may have found a savior
A month away from its closure, onetime gambling oasis Primm, Nev., located along the state border with Southern California, has a new lease on life.
The Primm family, owners of the land that includes three casino resorts and other businesses along the 15 Freeway, announced Tuesday a partnership intended to save the struggling state-line strip and hundreds of jobs.
The deal allows Las Vegas-based Terrible’s, owned by the Herbst family and perhaps most famous for a string of gas stations and convenience stores, to operate the properties.
“What we saw with them is the same energy that we had in rebuilding Primm,” said Cory Clemetson, describing the new deal with Terrible’s in an interview with The Times. Clemetson is president of Primm South Real Estate Co. and a grandson of Primm founder Ernie Primm, who made a name for himself in Southern California in the 1930s and ’40s with his Gardena card rooms.
In the summer of 2025, signage blocks an entrance at Primm Mall, a once-popular site along with the trio of casinos at the California-Nevada state line.
(Bridget Bennett / For The Times)
“Primm has long been one of Nevada’s most recognizable destinations,” said Tim Herbst, president of Terrible’s, in a statement. “This partnership reflects our commitment to preserving that legacy while creating new opportunities for growth, investment, and tourism for decades to come.”
Terrible’s takes over for Affinity Gaming, owned by private equity company Z Capital Partners, in the full-circle world of southern Nevada gaming. In 2010, Herbst Gaming declared bankruptcy and saw Primm taken over by Z Capital Partners.
An email to representatives for Affinity Gaming was not immediately returned.
The process for the return of Terrible’s to Primm kick-started May 5, when Affinity confirmed the closure of Primm Valley Casino Resorts.
Affinity’s subsidiary, Primadonna Co. LLC, sent termination notices to more than 300 employees effective July 4.
The closure was devastating, Clemetson said.
“It felt like a gut punch,” he said. “I mean, you’ve got to be kidding me that they would announce something like that for the Fourth of July. Laying off in excess of 300 Nevadans who are mostly paycheck to paycheck with nowhere to go didn’t sit well with my family.”
Primm Valley was the last of three resorts built between 1977 and 1994 at the site that remained in full operation.
Buffalo Bill’s, the largest of the three resorts, closed 24-7 operations in July 2025, after Whiskey Pete’s, the original casino, shuttered in December 2024.
Affinity Gaming declined multiple requests from The Times to speak about Primm’s struggles.
In a letter presented at a Clark County Board of Commissioners meeting, Erin Barnett, Affinity’s vice president and general counsel, wrote in October 2024 that “traffic at the state line has proved to be heavily weighted towards weekend activity and is insufficient to support three full-time casino properties.”
Scott Butera, Affinity’s chief executive and president, offered a few comments about the closure at the May 21 Nevada Gaming Commission meeting.
“As a tenant with a difficult lease and an expensive property and increased competition every day in California … it just became a very difficult thing,” he said, “and we’ve been losing money for years there.”
Clemetson said that Affinity asked for help over the years, such as potential rent reductions, but that the Primm family was unaware of Affinity’s finances.
As for the future, Clemetson said Terrible’s was in the process of reacquiring a gaming license for Primm, which he hoped would happen in the next three weeks.
He also said it was the goal of the Herbst and Primm families to try to keep all workers who received a termination notice employed.
Clemetson said he was excited about Primm’s future under Terrible’s and chalked up its bankruptcy in 2010 to the Great Recession.
“They suffered a similar fate of many big brands like MGM and Caesar’s,” Clemetson said.
“They’re very well thought of in Nevada and they’re a very successful family who’s done well,” he added.
Speaking of Primm’s chances of regaining its former glory, Clemetson reached back into his own past as a young sports agent for players on the L.A. Galaxy soccer team.
“I can’t tell you how many people told me I was dumb to get involved representing soccer players because soccer would never make it here,” he said. “Now, Major League Soccer has a few franchises over a billion dollars.”
As for Tim Herbst and his family, “we believe Primm’s best days are still ahead.”
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