Business
Stocks and Oil Prices Sent Conflicting Signals in April Amid Havoc of Iran War
Lately, financial markets appear confused.
Oil prices recently hit their highest level since the start of the war in Iran, stoking broad worries about inflation and a global energy crisis.
Yet, it has been the best month for the stock market of President Trump’s second term. The S&P 500 ended April nearly 10 percent higher than where it ended March.
The last time the index rose more than 10 percent in a month was in November 2020, after Joseph R. Biden Jr. was elected president and early trials for Covid-19 vaccines showed promising results. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose a further 0.5 percent, putting it on course for a fifth straight week of gains.
To many outside observers, it seems incongruous that the oil market can be sending such a dour signal, while stocks reflect a strong sense of investor optimism.
But in this unusual moment, according to analysts and traders, bullish and bearish market signals can both be true.
While the stock market reacts to day-to-day news, it is primarily concerned with how that news affects the longer-term outlook for company earnings. Stocks initially fell when the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, reflecting uncertainty about the war’s duration, its impact on energy supplies and the fallout for corporate America.
Stocks began to rise again after the Trump administration and Iran started to de-escalate at the end of March, moving toward a cease-fire on April 8. The standoff between the countries has not ended, a peace agreement has not been reached, but for stock investors, the expectation is that the disruption to oil markets and supply chains won’t last much longer.
And the economic impact of the war, at least as far as the United States is concerned, has been manageable. Data on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 2 percent in the first three months of this year, boosted by spending on infrastructure by many of the big tech companies that have led the S&P 500 stock index to repeated new highs.
This week, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta, which collectively account for 20 percent of the S&P 500’s market value, said they had spent a combined $130 billion on data centers. The share prices of these members of the so-called Magnificent 7, a group of companies that also include Apple, Nvidia and Tesla, rose nearly 15 percent in April.
Strong earnings in other industries have also buoyed the market. Roughly a third of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported their financial results for the first quarter, and their average growth in earnings stands at roughly 15 percent, on course for a sixth straight double-digit quarterly rise.
Oil prices are a much shorter-term measure of investor sentiment than stock indexes. The oil market is primarily traded using futures contracts, which are derivatives that fix the price today for delivery at a specified date in the future. The most frequently cited oil prices refer to the next month or two. That means that changes in the conflict that could extend or shorten its duration by a few weeks show up in the price of oil but not necessarily in the stock market. Oil traders are fixated on the price of a barrel of crude in July, for example, while pension fund managers are thinking about market returns many years in the future.
This week, a deadlock over the future of Iran’s nuclear program appeared to threaten the fragile cease-fire with the United States, helping to push the price of Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, to a four-year high, of over $120 per barrel on Thursday.
But investors appear to anticipate some sort of resolution the further out they look. Futures contracts for deliveries of Brent crude in December still trade below $90 a barrel.
“While the geopolitical environment remains fluid on a day-to-day basis, markets appear to be assigning a higher probability to a relatively near-term U.S. exit from the Middle East, alongside a normalization in global supply chains that could ultimately pressure oil prices lower,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.
The timing of the Trump administration’s announcements of important changes in policy in the conflict with Iran have, to some extent, exacerbated the appearance of market moves — both on the way down and the way back up.
The war began after the market closed on the final day of February and the cease-fire was announced on the final day of March, so the stock market’s losses were concentrated in March and the recovery almost entirely captured in April.
There are reasons for trepidation among stock investors as the war enters its third month.
The conflict could drag on for longer than is currently expected. Oil prices with Brent futures contracts from September through November have all started to rise, moving above $90 in just over the past week. Although that means traders still expect the price of oil to drift downward in the coming months, crude is increasingly expected to stay elevated for longer, weighing on the economy. The government’s bond market also shows signs of lingering inflation risks stemming from the war, analysts have noted.
Many investors have also expressed a lack of conviction in the current rally, which is evident in the way investors are trading. Stock market trading volumes have been subdued through April, with some investors saying they have turned to the derivatives market to place bets on the market going higher, allowing them to profit if the rally continues but limit losses if the market falls again.
“As long as the economy continues to grow and companies are able to grow earnings, we can see higher stock prices even in the face of higher energy prices and inflation,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. “However, the longer the war drags on, the more investors will grow nervous and we could see some pullbacks as fears ebb and flow.”
Business
This Rivian spinoff is reinventing e-bikes in California with screens, software and swappable seats
Rivian Automotive has attracted die-hard fans by building a battery-powered truck with enough muscle for off-roading as well as the acceleration and suspension to comfortably glide through city streets. Its little brother — a company called Also — is trying to do the same for e-bikes.
The Palo Alto company wants to reinvent the battery-driven bicycle using a powerful generator and software to change the look, feel and capabilities of two-wheelers. Also announced its flagship bike last October and is preparing to begin deliveries later this year.
E-bike enthusiasts often need separate bikes for different uses. Some bikes are good for carrying kids and cargo, others for daily city commutes. Another type is good for biking rough mountain paths.
Also claims its e-bikes can do it all by swapping out a few key components and pressing a button, so the bike behaves differently depending on the day’s needs.
“Let’s take the same approach as Rivian, the latest and most modern EV approach in architecture, but re-optimize it for smaller-than-car modes,” said Chris Yu, president and co-founder of Also. “The best EVs have new features and new capabilities that come through a software update every few weeks.”
Also’s e-bike, dubbed the TM-B, starts at $3,500 and can travel up to 28 miles per hour. Many e-bikes are available for around $1,000, though some high-end options go for more than $5,000.
Also President Chris Yu poses with an Also e-bike at the company’s headquarters April 13 in Palo Alto.
(Jess Lynn Goss / For The Times)
The company is betting that the $57-billion global e-bike market and $3-billion U.S. market have room for a new player with a unique offering. It’s also making a four-wheel electric vehicle with pedals designed to deliver cargo.
Yu, a Stanford-educated aerodynamics engineer and former bike racer, had done an internship at NASA and ten years at bicycle manufacturer Specialized before he met Rivian Chief Executive RJ Scaringe in 2021. The two hit it off, and Yu joined Rivian in 2022 to work on a new secret project to develop smaller electric vehicles.
Also split off from Rivian in 2025. Irvine-based Rivian owns a minority share in it.
Also, which employs about 300 people, would not share whether it was profitable or how many bikes it plans to produce per year. In a promotional video earlier this year, an Also employee said the company hopes to eventually produce hundreds of thousands of units per year.
Like Rivian, Also makes all the major parts of its products, from the handlebars to the circuit boards. Also wants to offer e-bike riders the same software-powered ease and customization that has become standard in high-end electric cars from Rivian and Tesla.
“We can really craft an experience that mirrors a modern car-like experience,” Yu said. “We’re taking that recipe and applying it to this really fast-moving electrification of smaller things.”
Its TM-B e-bike is decked out with features, including Bluetooth, GPS, Wi-Fi, a built-in touchscreen, and software that supports over-the-air updates. Riders can switch out their bike’s seat and wheels depending on whether they are riding to work, dropping off kids or tackling a mountain trail.
A rack of motor and transmission components for e-bikes and other vehicles at Also headquarters in Palo Alto.
(Jess Lynn Goss / For The Times)
The company is hitting the market during a rocky period for the e-bike industry. After a pandemic-era boom in demand that led to a proliferation of options, many e-bike companies have struggled with slowing interest and rising costs.
Rad Power Bikes, once a leading brand in the U.S., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in late 2025 and was sold to Life Electric Vehicle Holdings in January for $13.2 million, a 99% drop from its peak valuation. Its competitor, Juiced Bikes, collapsed in 2024. Late last year, Porsche scrapped its plans to launch its own e-bikes, citing a cooling market in its statement.
David Zipper, a micromobility expert and senior fellow at the MIT Mobility Initiative, said he isn’t convinced there’s heavy demand for a product like the TM-B.
“I have never met anyone who said, ‘I really wish my bike could take over-the-air updates,’” he said. “Part of the beauty of the bicycle is its simplicity.”
Yu hopes Also’s bikes will speed up the electrification of micromobility, but Zipper said the bikes’ complexity and price point might hinder that mission.
“A lot of people won’t feel like they can afford it, and for that reason, I don’t necessarily see it as being transformational,” Zipper said. “They have a lot of interesting technology, but if we’re trying to really change American transportation, I’m not sure that a luxury, software-enabled e-bike is the first place I’d look.”
Yu said electric micromobility is going to surge as more cities ban combustion engines from certain areas. Hanoi banned gas-powered two-wheel vehicles in the city center and Paris closed a core part of the city to cars last year.
Also is partnering with Amazon to use its four-wheel electric vehicle, called the TM-Q, to expand Amazon’s micromobility delivery fleet across Europe and the U.S. Also did not share when its delivery vehicles would be deployed.
“We can really craft an experience that mirrors a modern car-like experience,” said Also President Chris Yu, pictured at the company’s headquarters earlier this month. “We’re taking that recipe and applying it to this really fast-moving electrification of smaller things.”
(Jess Lynn Goss / For The Times)
“There are hundreds of millions of smaller-than-car vehicles today that will, almost without debate, electrify over the next decade,” Yu said.
The TM-B and TM-Q rely on the same underlying technology, but are designed for different use cases, Yu said. They differ from other products on the market in the way the pedaling mechanism works — the e-bikes have no chains.
“There’s no physical connection between your input and the result of the bike moving,” Yu said. “It’s all software. We turn your leg power into electrical power, we send that electrical power to the battery, and then the battery sends it to the wheel.”
Also’s engineers have worked to mimic the feeling of riding a real bike and shifting gears even without a chain connecting the pedals to the wheels. Riders can choose an electric-assist level that makes pedaling easier or harder.
The bike charges to full battery in a couple of hours and has a range of 25 to 100 miles, depending on the level of electric assist used.
Its battery is a removable block that can charge separately from the bike and even be used as a power bank at the beach or on camping trips.
A close-up look at the motor and transmission mechanism of an Also e-bike, which charges to full battery in a couple of hours.
(Jess Lynn Goss / For The Times)
Using more software and fewer moving parts makes Also’s e-bikes more efficient, durable and easier to handle, the company says. It also lets the bikes perform differently depending on need.
Ed Benjamin, chairman of the Light Electric Vehicle Association, said Also’s approach reflects the direction the small EV industry is heading in.
“The future of electric two-wheelers is going to be driven by software,” he said. “In new cars, the software provides safety features, comfort features and efficiency features. The same thing is going to happen with bikes.”
Business
Behind Powell’s High-Stakes Decision to Stay at the Fed
Over the past year, Jerome H. Powell has frequently said that the Federal Reserve faced “no risk-free paths” as it confronted a series of economic shocks that simultaneously lifted inflation while denting growth.
The same could be said for his momentous decision to stay on at the Fed as a governor after his term as Fed chair ends May 15.
In choosing to stay, Mr. Powell used the one tool of leverage he had left to push back on an administration that has aggressively attacked the central bank for its refusal to bend to the president’s demands for lower interest rates. Unless another Fed governor departs, President Trump will not have another vacancy to fill until Mr. Powell’s term ends in January 2028, stymieing the president’s plans to get more of his supporters on the powerful board of governors.
The move, which Mr. Powell announced on Wednesday at his final news conference after eight years as chair, drew an immediate rebuke from the administration. Mr. Trump quipped that Mr. Powell was staying because “he can’t get a job anywhere else — nobody wants him.” Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, called Mr. Powell’s decision a “violation of all Federal Reserve norms.”
On Thursday, Mr. Trump seemed to soften his approach, saying during remarks at the White House that he did not care if Mr. Powell stayed on and only was concerned about getting his Mr. Warsh into the top job.
The question now is whether Mr. Powell’s continued presence will further inflame tensions between the administration and the central bank, leading to even more intense attacks that will keep the institution on the defensive. Weeks before Mr. Powell announced his decision, Mr. Trump threatened to fire him if he did not resign after his term as chair ended.
“This could still go sideways, and if it does, some people will point to Powell staying as a provocation,” said Claudia Sahm, a former forecaster at the Fed who is now the chief economist at New Century Advisors. “Stay or go, there are risks on either side of this.”
Mr. Powell made clear on Wednesday that he wanted nothing more than to leave the Fed. Yet he said he had “no choice” but to stay and guard against further encroachments on the institution where he has served for nearly 14 years, first as a governor and then as chair. The last time a chair whose term had expired stayed on as a governor was in 1948.
“I’m literally staying because of the actions that have been taken,” Mr. Powell said when asked about whether his decision would be viewed as a political act. “I have long planned to be retiring.”
The decision had nothing to do with Kevin M. Warsh, Mr. Trump’s pick to replace him as chair, Mr. Powell stressed on Wednesday.
He said he took Mr. Warsh at his word that he would stand up to political pressure from the president. Mr. Powell also vowed to keep a “low profile as a governor,” despite retaining a vote on decisions around rates and other policies.
William Dudley, who previously was the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said he expected Mr. Powell to stay relatively quiet and embrace a “one man, one vote” approach.
Mr. Powell spent much of his news conference explaining that his decision to stay rested on a belief that the central bank’s independence was fundamentally “at risk” amid a litany of legal threats that were far from over.
“These legal actions by the administration are unprecedented in our 113-year history, and there are ongoing threats of additional such actions,” he said. “I worry that these attacks are battering the institution and putting at risk the thing that really matters to the public, which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking into consideration political factors.”
Top of mind for Mr. Powell is a criminal investigation that the Justice Department began against the Fed regarding renovations to its headquarters in Washington and whether he lied to Congress about the plans. Federal prosecutors dropped the inquiry on Friday, but maintained that they could reopen it at any point. Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, said on Thursday that there was “no question” the Justice Department would appeal a federal judge’s recent ruling that quashed subpoenas issued to the central bank. For now, the Fed’s inspector general is looking into the renovation, an inquest that Mr. Powell requested in July.
“You’ve got billions of dollars in cost overruns on a very small project,” she said, adding that prosecutors would await the “decision” by the Fed’s internal watchdog and “based upon that decision we will then decide what we are going to do.”
Mr. Powell has long stipulated that he would not leave the Fed until the Justice Department’s investigation was “well and truly over, with finality and transparency.” But a mounting concern is whether Mr. Trump will now use the allegations leveled in the investigation to try to fire Mr. Powell, having already accused him of “incompetence” and questioned whether he committed fraud.
“There’s definitely a cost-benefit analysis one would think Powell engaged in, and the cost of staying is that it greatly increases the likelihood that there will be a for-cause removal case against him involving the renovations, which would be a novel litigation,” said Lev Menand, an associate professor at Columbia Law School.
A president can remove a Fed official only for cause, which legal experts interpret to mean gross misconduct or a dereliction of duty. The issue is being debated by the Supreme Court after the president’s attempt to fire Lisa D. Cook, a governor, in August.
Joseph Gagnon, a former senior member of the Fed staff who is now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said it was crucial for Ms. Cook to win that case. “If they let Trump fire governors at will, then there’s no more independent monetary policy,” he said.
If Mr. Trump or the Justice Department pursues any additional legal actions, “being on the inside is always better than being on the outside,” Scott Alvarez, who previously served as the Fed’s general counsel, said of Mr. Powell’s decision to stay.
Graham Steele, a longtime financial regulation lawyer and a former Treasury Department official, noted that there would be “strategic” advantages in doing so, such as “physical proximity, access to information and the institutional halo effect that come from being a sitting governor.”
For the time being, Mr. Powell’s continued presence at an institution that has gone through so much tumult in the past year and is now on the cusp of a major leadership transition is “symbolically really important,” said Jon Faust, a fellow at the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University and a former senior adviser to the outgoing chair.
What perhaps will matter even more is when Mr. Powell decides to leave, Ms. Sahm said.
“It will mean so much when he says, ‘I’m ready to retire,’ because that will be a sign from someone who cares deeply about the institution that it’s going to be OK.”
— Tony Romm contributed reporting.
Business
Commentary: Resurrecting a discredited theory on COVID’s origin, DOJ indicts an ex-Fauci aide over old emails
David Morens tried to keep a scientific discussion under wraps. Trump’s anti-science attacks explain why
According to Department of Justice officials including FBI Director Kash Patel, the indictment of David M. Morens for using his personal email account on official business is all about protecting the sanctity of government communications and upholding the federal Freedom of Information Act.
“Circumventing records protocols with the intention of avoiding transparency is something that will not be tolerated by this FBI,” Patel said in the announcement of Morens’ indictment Tuesday.
Many news reports of the indictment, which was unsealed Monday in Maryland federal court, took the DOJ at its word. That’s an error. In reality, the indictment has nothing to do with government email rules.
Scientists rely on open communication and collaboration…. So everybody’s connected, and that’s what’s exploited in these conspiracy stories. It’s made to look nefarious.
— Zoologist Peter Daszak
Rather, it’s a transparent effort to revive the largely discredited hypothesis that COVID-19 originated in a Chinese laboratory through experiments there that were funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, headed at the time by Anthony Fauci. (Timothy Belevetz, a lawyer for Morens, declined to comment on the indictment.)
A few points about this.
First, there has never been and still isn’t any evidence that COVID originated in a Chinese lab, much less that Fauci, a revered epidemiologist, was complicit in the pandemic. The overwhelming weight of scientific opinion in the epidemiological and virological communities is that the virus reached humans via naturally infected wildlife, a process known as zoonosis.
Nor is that only a consensus among virologists and epidemiologists: In a declassified 2023 assessment, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees all the government’s intelligence services including the FBI, exploded the most common claims made for a lab leak.
As for the Trump White House’s ostensible devotion to “transparency,” New York University’s litigation tracker finds that the roster of pending lawsuits in federal courts coast to coast from nonprofit organizations, state agencies and individuals complaining that the administration has ignored or slow-walked FOIA requests now numbers an astonishing 110.
News about the Morens indictment was drowned out over the last few days by administration attacks on other Trump targets, such as a new indictment of former FBI Director James Comey over a photo of sea shells that the DOJ argues, absurdly, was a subtle call for Trump’s assassination; and an effort by the Federal Communications Commission to terminate ABC’s broadcast licenses, amid late-night show host Jimmy Kimmel’s criticism of Trump.
As I’ve written before, however, the Trumpian attacks on science may have more lasting and profound effects than those cases on public health and the U.S. economy. The anti-science campaign doesn’t merely undermine public confidence in expert judgments; it also poses a generational threat to public health and to America’s economic stature in the world discouraging promising students from entering important research fields.
Those are the long-term consequences; in the short run, Trump’s anti-science campaign has cost U.S. taxpayers a mint. According to the “Bethesda Declaration,” an open letter to National Institutes of Health Director Jay Bhattacharya published in June 2025 and signed by some 500 NIH employees, the agency had terminated 2,100 research grants totaling $9.5 billion since Trump’s inauguration.
The terminations “throw away years of hard work and millions of dollars,” the declaration observed: “Ending a $5 million research study when it is 80% complete does not save $1 million, it wastes $4 million.”
Between the lines, the Morens indictment looks like a proxy salvo in the GOP attack on Fauci, who has been a target of Republicans and the far right since the pandemic.
Charging Fauci directly may be a tough lift, because President Biden, aware of Trump’s inclination to punish his perceived adversaries, preemptively pardoned him for any supposed offenses stemming from his service at NIAID and as a pandemic-era advisor to the Trump White House.
Morens served as a senior advisor to Fauci (who is identified in the indictment as “Senior NIAID Official 1”) from 2006 through Fauci’s retirement in December 2022. Among other counts, he’s charged with conspiracy and “destruction, alteration, or falsification” of government documents. The maximum prison term for the five counts in the indictment comes to 51 years. Morens is 78.
The indictment stems from the earliest days of the pandemic in the first months of 2020, when scientists were trying to get their arms around the novel coronavirus and delve into its features and origins.
Morens corresponded with scientists researching the question. Among them was zoologist Peter Daszak, the president of EcoHealth Alliance, a nonprofit that managed government grants concerned with potential global pandemic threats. He and his organization sounded an early alarm that COVID-19 represented a serious public health threat.
Daszak, 60, is identified in the indictment as “co-conspirator 1” and EcoHealth as “Company #1”; Gerald Keusch, 87, a retired expert in infectious diseases at Boston University who participated in some of the email exchanges and was an outspoken defender of Daszak and EcoHealth, appears in the document as “co-conspirator 2.” Neither he nor Daszak is accused of any crimes in the indictment.
At an early stage, Morens asked his correspondents to communicate through his personal email address so their exchanges wouldn’t be subject to freedom of information requests. This is illegal, but almost never prosecuted.
Still, Morens’ concern was understandable, since FOIA requests had been weaponized by conservatives mining academic correspondences to undermine research into global warming and harass researchers. Morens was pilloried for his email practices during a House Oversight Committee hearing two years ago, and apologized.
“Scientists rely on open communication and collaboration, so you’re constantly emailing everybody,” Daszak told me. “So everybody’s connected, and that’s what’s exploited in these conspiracy stories. It’s made to look nefarious. It’s preying on the openness of science and shutting that down.” I couldn’t reach Keusch for comment.
Some of Morens’ efforts were aimed at restoring a $3.4-million NIAID grant to EcoHealth to fund research into the origins of pathogens in the wild. Trump had ordered the grant canceled in April 2020, a few days after a Fox News reporter told him it had all gone to the Wuhan (China) Institute of Virology, which was a target of lab-leak advocates. (In fact, only about $600,000 had gone to the lab, one of eight foreign and domestic sub-grantees.)
Biden restored the grant after an internal NIH investigation deemed the politically inspired cancellation “improper,” but by then three precious years of research had been lost. It was later canceled again. EcoHealth has shut down completely.
Several emails cited in the indictment referred to government reports that were public and remained so. Some were private exchanges bemoaning the conservative slander that, as Daszak put it, a “powerful cabal of scientists from within NIH helped draft anti lab-leak narrative.” In others, Daszak alerted Morens that batches of EcoHealth emails had been “FOIAed.”
As for the indictment’s assertion that Morens had destroyed government documents, it doesn’t specify any official reports that were concealed or destroyed; the reference may be to Morens’ own emails, which he deleted from his personal account.
Other emails were jocular personal exchanges between colleagues and friends. One exchange concerned a gift of two bottles of inexpensive wine Daszak sent Morens, implying that this was a bribe aimed at persuading Morens to obtain the grant for EcoHealth or to try to get it reinstated. In fact, the grant had been given a high grade by an independent panel charged with selecting grant recipients; neither Morens nor Fauci was personally involved in the process.
The debate over COVID’s origin isn’t an academic exercise. Protecting humanity from the next pandemic, and the ones after that, depends on gaining an accurate understanding of how pathogens originate and reach human communities. Obsessing over a factually unsupported and politically inspired accusation that a Chinese lab foisted COVID-19 on the world will distract from the hard work of addressing the more likely scenario, say by better policing of the illicit trade in infection-prone wildlife species.
Punishing scientists for exploring politically unpalatable research won’t help. “This is the reward for our warning the world that these viruses were coming,” Daszak says of the campaign to discredit EcoHealth. “These were good grants for very important work, and that’s all gone now.”
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