Business
Crop Undercount Raises Questions About Reliability of U.S.D.A. Data
The Agriculture Department projected last July that farmers would harvest 86.8 million acres of corn in autumn. The projection was repeatedly revised upward until, in January, the department found 1.3 million more acres of corn — an area larger than Delaware — and concluded that the final amount harvested was 91.3 million acres.
“It was a miss. No other way to call it,” said Seth Meyer, who served as the department’s chief economist until leaving in December.
The 5 percent undercount may seem small, but it was the department’s worst projection in recent memory. It came as the Trump administration was cutting staff at the Agriculture Department and as President Trump’s trade war raised prices for equipment and hurt exports.
Some people in agriculture have become increasingly worried about the reliability of department data. That skepticism could lead to a breakdown of the historically close relationship between the department and farmers it serves, they said.
“U.S.D.A. always had a great relationship with its farmers,” said Mr. Meyer, who now leads the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri. “That seems to have weakened.”
The Agriculture Department publishes thousands of reports annually on everything from county-level sorghum planting to China’s hardwood market. But its estimates of crop size are some of the most closely read reports. Traders use information from the reports to immediately buy and sell commodities, affecting the prices that farmers receive for their crops. Farmers use the information to make decisions about how and when to try to sell their crop for the most money.
Department officials haven’t offered an official explanation for the miss, but many outside it point to staffing cuts and lower survey response rates.
The Agriculture Department lost 23,000 employees in 2025, as Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency slashed jobs across the federal government. The National Agricultural Statistics Service, which produces crop reports, was one of the hardest-hit divisions; it lost 34 percent of its staff, going to about 500 employees from around 800.
The corn miss prompted Farm Journal, an agricultural publication, to ask respondents to its monthly survey whether they remained confident in department data. Most of the farmers, ranchers and economists polled responded “no.”
“People trade the reports whether the reports are true or not,” said Shay Foulk, who farms 1,500 acres and runs a seed business near Peoria, Ill. Since farmers are trading in commodity markets against sophisticated managed funds and trading algorithms, he said, “the farmer just feels they are at a disadvantage if those numbers are inaccurate.”
For years, the department has struggled with fewer farmers returning its surveys, one of the key data sources for crop production reports. The response rate for recent surveys was around 40 percent, according to the department, down from around 60 percent a decade ago.
“When farmers lose trust in the agency, they don’t want to participate as much, and so there is a direct line between low staff and low participation and incorrect data,” said Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Agriculture Committee, in an interview.
In March, Democrats on the Agriculture Committee wrote a letter to Scott Hutchins, the under secretary for research, education and economics at the Agriculture Department, concerned about the reliability of the department’s data. They also said the department’s proposed relocation of employees from Washington to hubs around the country “threatens to worsen the loss of key institutional knowledge and staff capacity.”
Mr. Hutchins, who was appointed by Mr. Trump last year, said in an interview that farmers still trusted the agency but had “well-founded frustrations” with the corn misestimate.
Asked whether losing employees had anything to do with the miss, he said, “Absolutely, unequivocally no.” Mr. Hutchins added that the department’s ability to develop new efficiencies had been “enhanced tremendously” by the departures, and that it was using more remote sensing abilities and artificial intelligence to collect data.
“I don’t understand what all of the additional staff might’ve been doing for us to still produce the same outcome with the current staff that we have,” he said.
Mr. Hutchins did say he was worried about the department’s entering a data doom loop if response rates continued to fall. “It is kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he said. “The fewer surveys we have, the larger the standard error we will have in estimates.”
The corn miss was a major topic of conversation last week at the semiannual Agriculture Department data users’ meeting, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. It is normally a low-key event attended by departmental economists, academics, agricultural company representatives and others, where heads of different divisions preview new data products and answer esoteric methodology questions. But this time, there was a heavy focus on heightening transparency and increasing survey response rates.
Lance Honig, the acting director of the department’s statistics division, suggested that 2025 was an anomaly. Because of the large amount of corn planted and record yields, the normal statistical models were off.
“I would suggest that the 2025 crop season was a bit different than anything we had seen in, oh, I don’t know, what would that be — 80, 90 years,” Mr. Honig said.
The Agriculture Department recently put out a request for information for commentary and ideas about its data products. It is also planning to increase the number of farmers surveyed for its acreage reports, pending approval from the Office of Management and Budget for the higher cost to send out more surveys.
One meeting attendee, Bill Lapp, a food industry consultant, suggested that surveys be made mandatory for those receiving money from the government’s bailout package for farmers. “For $12 billion, can’t you get them to fill out a damn postcard a couple of times a year?” he asked in a question-and-answer session.
Farmers have a deep and direct relationship with the federal government, which sustains much of their business. Farmers participate in crop insurance and conservation programs, apply for grants and receive disaster assistance and ad hoc payments. The Agriculture Department projects that government payments will account for 29 percent of farm income this year.
These programs run on data obtained from farmers. They must certify the number of acres they plant with the Farm Service Agency in order to participate in income support programs. To get crop insurance, farmers must give their financial information to the Risk Management Agency. So when they are also mailed surveys asking detailed questions about their crops, some farmers get annoyed, because they believe the department has, or should have, the data.
Mr. Foulk, the Illinois farmer, said farmers were in part disgruntled with the federal government because of their declining influence. On tariffs, biofuels policy and the farm bill, farmers haven’t gotten what they wanted lately.
“We had the privilege of having this outsized voice, and now we’re not as loud,” he said.
Farmers are unlikely to stop participating in Agriculture Department programs that directly benefit them, no matter how they feel, said Mr. Meyer, the former agency economist. But their very viability is underpinned by data and analysis.
“Supporting data collection has historically and continues to support the things that directly impact them,” he said.
Business
SoFi Stadium workers union announces labor deal, averting strike during World Cup
A strike that had the potential to disrupt the U.S. World Cup opener at SoFi Stadium has been averted, with United Here Local 11 and Legends Global, the stadium’s food-service operator, agreeing Tuesday to a tentative deal.
The nearly 2,000 workers represented by the union, which includes dishwashers, concession workers, bartenders and servers, voted last week to authorize a strike with 96% of those voting supporting the decision to walk off the job. Workers were demanding salary increases, protection against subcontracting and job loss through automation, and were refusing to comply with FIFA’s request to collect sensitive private information such as nationality and home addresses.
Details of the new contract were not released but the union had demanded “substantial increases” in pay to more than $30 an hour while Legends proposed wage freezes for some workers and a 25-cent hourly increase for cooks and dishwashers.
“We got major economic gains and significant protections around subcontracting automation,” Kurt Petersen, the union’s co-president, said. “I don’t know the soccer analogy, but it’s a grand slam of a contract.”
Legends was also happy with the deal.
“We are pleased to have reached an agreement with Unite Here Local 11 and look forward to delivering an outstanding hospitality experience for fans at the FIFA World Cup matches,” the company said in a statement.
Petersen said the final sticking points included a prohibition preventing any accrediting agency, including Legends, from sharing workers’ personal information and the right for union members to walk off the job without prejudice if they feel threatened by the presence of Department of Homeland Security or Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials at the stadium.
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“That was the last piece that fell into place [Monday] afternoon, which, you know, is a unique, unprecedented provision,” he said. “Because when you have a contract, you can’t strike. We carved out this exception.”
FIFA, global soccer’s governing body and the organizer of the World Cup, said it needed the information as part of its background-check procedure. But the union feared the sensitive date would be shared with immigration authorities.
Union members have been working without a contract for a year and Petersen said workers would have picketed the stadium ahead of Friday’s tournament opener between the U.S. and Paraguay. SoFi Stadium will play host to seven other World Cup games, including the U.S. group-play finale with Turkey on June 25.
“The privacy concerns, and then the ability to strike. It’s about being able to work in peace, right? Being able at least to have some protections,” Petersen said.
FIFA has declined to comment on the contract talks, saying they are “between Legends Global and Unite Here Local 11.” But its insistence on collecting personal information was a major stumbling block to a deal.
FIFA said it was partnering with the governments of the U.S., Canada and Mexico, the three countries in which the 39-day tournament will be played, “to enhance safety and security of all workers, staff, team members, vendors, journalists, volunteers, and spectators by mitigating potential insider threats. … Such name checks do not constitute pre-employment checks.”
Petersen said the contract runs through April 2028, expiring about 2 ½ months before the 2028 Olympics comes to SoFi Stadium.
Business
Commentary: Here’s how Musk’s SpaceX IPO could crash your 401(k)
Wall Street is moving to stuff SpaceX shares into small investors’ portfolios, exposing them to a potentially overpriced stock.
Fidelity Investments, the big brokerage and mutual fund firm, long has had a rule protecting its small retail clients from plunging into initial public stock offerings while the shares were still subject to IPO-related hype.
In most cases, Fidelity would allow IPO investments only for clients with at least $500,000 in their brokerage accounts.
No longer. For the SpaceX IPO expected to launch on June 12, Fidelity has cut the threshold to only $2,000.
This estimate borders on fantasy.
— Aswath Damodaran, NYU, on SpaceX’s estimate of its market reach
It’s a curious decision, considering that the SpaceX IPO will be not only the largest such IPO in history — with a possible $75 billion in shares coming on the market, valuing the entire company at about $1.8 trillion — but potentially the most over-hyped. SpaceX, you may know, is the biggest company controlled by Elon Musk, so if you buy its shares, you’re buying into his vision.
A Fidelity representative told me that it made the change because SpaceX has reserved about 30% of its offered shares for retail investors, much more than the traditional 10%, “which means there are more shares being offered to retail clients.”
Fidelity’s liberalized policy is an example of how Wall Street has been moving the investment goalposts in order to stuff more of SpaceX’s shares into the portfolios of ordinary investors.
Fidelity’s clients, of course, can make their own decision about whether to buy in, but that’s not the case for owners of some stock index funds, who may find SpaceX among their holdings whether they like it or not.
That’s because managers of stock index funds are duty-bound to add a stock to their holdings once it’s added to the index they track.
The risk inherent in the SpaceX IPO may fall significantly on unwitting retirement account holders, who tend to be heavily invested in index funds. Vanguard, which pioneered index mutual funds, says that about 30% of retirement account holders choose equity funds if they’re offered by plan sponsors, and most are indexed.
There’s no mystery why Wall Street is anxious to sell SpaceX to the small investor. It’s because almost all of the major investment banks, led by Goldman Sachs, are underwriters of this massive stock issue, so they have an incentive to get the shares out the door promptly. Accordingly, there has been a big push on the Street to stuff them into the leading stock indices, leaving index fund managers no choice but to buy.
Before getting into some of the weirder features of the SpaceX IPO, here’s a brief primer into how index funds work and how index fund managers have responded to the prospect of a huge and widely followed stock issue dropping onto the market. Nor is SpaceX the only mega-IPO lurking on the horizon. It’s likely to be followed this year by the AI firms for Anthropic and OpenAI.
The overseers of stock indices, of which the largest are Standard & Poor’s (which owns the S&P 500, the standard benchmark for the overall stock market) and Nasdaq (owner of the Nasdaq 100 index of the largest Nasdaq-listed companies), generally have been cautious about when to add a stock to their indices.
Standard & Poor’s, for example, waits until a stock has been publicly traded for at least a year and has turned a profit in four quarters, including the quarter prior to its addition. At Nasdaq, the rule has been that companies have to wait for at least three months and have at least a 10% float, meaning that at least 10% of its shares are available for trading.
With the SpaceX IPO in the offing, however, Nasdaq reduced its “seasoning” period to only 15 days and removed the 10% threshold. I asked Nasdaq if it made the change to entice SpaceX to list on its exchange rather than on the New York Stock Exchange, but didn’t get an answer. Anyway, Nasdaq did get the listing.
Another index operator, FTSE Russell, which manages the broad-based Russell 2000 index, reduced its entry threshold for big companies to as few as five trading days after an IPO, rather than waiting for the next quarterly or annual report.
Investors may have dodged the most significant bullet on June 5, when Standard & Poor’s opted not to change its index-listing rules for any of its market indices. But if you’re holding index funds that track the big-cap Nasdaq 100 or the Russell 2000, you’ll be tethered to SpaceX , depending on its weight in the index — if it keeps flying, good for you. If it crashes, you’ll take a loss.
That brings us back to SpaceX itself. As its name indicates, the company is best known as a rocketship firm, with billions of dollars in U.S. government contracts aimed at transporting humans to the moon.
But what is it, really? In its prospectus, the company describes its mission as building “the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars.”
This is not the language of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, the gurus of value investing. It’s more like the language of Robert A. Heinlein, who wrote science fiction. (As it happens, Heinlein coined the term “grok,” which Musk took as the name for the AI bot of his social media platform X.)
Even if you believe in the goals, none of them is rationally achievable within the traditional investor’s horizon of a few years or even a few decades, much less within your lifetime. The same goes for the company’s claim of a “total addressable market,” or TAM, of $28.5 trillion for its products and services; for perspective, consider that the gross domestic product of the United States in 2025 was about $32 trillion.
Almost all of SpaceX’s claimed TAM comes from its prospective AI business — the only one of its three business segments that has virtually no concrete achievements to claim. It’s not clear that even Heinlein would have written such a stretch into his books.
In real life, Aswath Damodaran, the stock valuation expert at NYU, says the figure “borders on fantasy” and places it in the same category as other “bloated and patently unreachable numbers floated for companies” by Silicon Valley promoters.
Currently, the jewel in SpaceX’s revenue crown is Starlink, Musk’s network of orbiting internet-providing satellites. Starlink provided the largest share of SpaceX’s revenue in 2025 — $11.32 billion of its $18.8 billion — and was its only profitable segment, with $4.42 billion in net income. Space operations lost $657 million on $4.08 billion in revenue, and AI lost $6.36 billion on $3.2 billion in revenue.
The IPO, therefore, looks like a massive bet on AI, propped up by profits from Starlink. There’s reason to be concerned about Starlink’s future, however. SpaceX’s IPO prospectus discloses that although the number of Starlink subscribers has more than doubled over the last year, to 10.3 million as of March 31 from 5 million a year ago, its average revenue per subscriber has been shrinking, to $66 as of March 31 from $99 at the end of 2023.
Moreover, Starlink satellites have a useful life of only five years, meaning that the fleet has to be refreshed more often than the average American household replaces the family car, at untold expense in research and development and launches. About 10,000 satellites are currently in orbit.
It’s also possible that Starlink may run into increased political backlash. Its satellites have been blamed for interfering with astronomical observations and posing an ever-increasing risk of space collisions.
In 2021, Musk dismissed the collision concerns: “Space is just extremely enormous,” he said, “and satellites are very tiny.”
Then there are the governance features of SpaceX. Put simply, only one person is in a position to make any decisions, Elon Musk. He will own a mere 12.3% of the Class A shares due to be issued in the IPO, which each receive one shareholder vote, but 93.6% of the Class B shares, which have 10 votes each. That gives him 85.1% of all shareholder votes. As a result, the prospectus says, “Mr. Musk will be able to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval,” including the selection of the board of directors.
Will he exercise his control mostly for the benefit of shreholders, or for himself? His record isn’t encouraging. As I’ve reported, he has a habit of using his various companies to prop up each other, most recently by sticking SpaceX and other companies with the excess inventory of Cybertrucks, the ridiculed pickups marketed by Tesla, which he also controls. When his SolarCity solar energy company ran into financial trouble in 2016, he merged it into Tesla with the assent of a compliant Tesla board.
None of this necessarily means that SpaceX will be a drag on the market. It could soar on IPO days and remain aloft, despite what the numbers suggest will be a majestic overvaluation from the inception. Or not. Either way, small investors could end up holding the bag.
Business
Musicians shortchanged by AI deals with labels, lawsuit alleges
Musicians have been left out of settlements between major record labels and AI companies, a new lawsuit alleges.
The American Federation of Musicians of the United States and Canada (AFM), which has 70,000 members, said Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group “received significant compensation” from the AI companies for past copyright violations and licensed “substantial” portions of their music catalogs to them, but haven’t shared that with the musicians.
UMG and WMG sued AI companies Udio and Suno in 2024, accusing them of copyright infringement. Both companies settled with Udio last year. In November, WMG announced a partnership with Suno, but Universal Music Group’s lawsuit against Suno is pending.
“While the Defendants protected their own interests and created a significant source of new revenue with the retrospective settlements and prospective licenses, they have refused to compensate the musicians whose work — created with their own instruments and through their talent, creativity, and hard work — is fed into AI machines for profit,” AFM said in its lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court in New York on Friday.
AFM said it believes the AI settlements fall under the “new use” provision of its collective bargaining agreements, which requires music companies to notify the union of new licenses for purposes not covered by the contract and to compensate musicians, whose work was used to train AI models.
UMG and WMG said in statements that they are in negotiations on a collective bargaining agreement with AFM.
“Warner Music Group is growing the value of music by establishing guardrails and architecting a healthy AI ecosystem on behalf of artists everywhere,” the company said in a statement.
Universal Music Group said it will continue to work to resolve issues during the negotiations.
“Universal Music Group has been at the forefront of protecting the rights and advancing the interests of artists and songwriters in the age of AI — striking responsible AI licensing agreements to ensure they are compensated, leading the charge for legislation to further protect them and taking legal action against bad actors,” the company said in a statement.
“We expect to continue our strong working relationship with the AFM built on mutual respect for the talented musicians in our industry.”
AI has become more popular among consumers, dramatically changing the landscape in the entertainment industry. Many startups have popped up allowing users to type text prompts into AI systems to generate original songs, video clips and stories.
Some creatives say the AI tools help them brainstorm or illustrate bold ideas on a budget. But critics have raised concerns about whether AI systems are trained on copyrighted works without permission or payment to artists. Others are worried AI could eliminate their livelihoods.
Udio said it would create a new platform that would train on licensed and authorized music with artists having the ability to opt-in. Suno agreed to change its platform, launching new licensed models, and place download restrictions.
Bradford Auerbach, a partner at law firm OGC, said he expects to see more of these types of lawsuits filed by unions.
“You’ve got the unions always protecting the status quo, so you’ve got this invariable conflict of new technology coming in, and moving the cheese for a lot of people that were accustomed to having their business set up the way it was,” Auerbach said.
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