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Three Up, Three Down: San Diego Padres

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Three Up, Three Down: San Diego Padres


I tried doing these series previews early in the season before they ended up being too time-consuming and real life got in the way. Anyone who has read my in-depth pieces or listened to my podcast with John Ke knows brevity is not my strong suit. This time around, I borrowed a format from our mutual friend, Bleed Cubbie Blue site manager Al Yellon, to hopefully limit myself while still providing the relevant analysis. Let’s get into it.

Three Up

Old Friends, New Places

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Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

The Padres have a few former Twins, including fan-favorite and two-time batting champ Luis Arraez. I don’t want to rail against a three-time All-Star too much, but this is just your yearly reminder that batting average isn’t important in 2024. Arraez is second in the NL in BA among qualified hitters but has only accumulated 0.5 fWAR, ranking 65th among qualified NL batters and 128th overall in the NL.

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What has Arraez’s value so low? The rest of his profile has regressed to the point the Twins feared when they traded him away two years ago. Defensively, he is limited to DH already at 27-years-old. In his limited time on the field, he ranks last in Outs Above Average and the bottom 10th percentile of arm strength. On the offensive side, there’s no power with a bottom-five .073 ISO and only 19 of his 110 hits going for extra bases. He has a 10th-percentile average exit velocity, 2nd-percentile barrel rate, and 3rd-percentile hard-hit rate. Weirdly, his chase rate is also way up compared to when he was with the Twins, ranking in the 12th percentile there. He doesn’t whiff when he chases leading to countless weak outs early in counts, which is worse than a whiff. Oh also, his 3.4% walk rate is the second worst in baseball, giving him the same OBP as Willi Castro who is hitting .258. Overall, Arraez has a league-average 103 wRC+ while making over $10 million and another hefty raise due in arbitration this summer. It’s not what you want.

The Padres also have 2023 curse-breaking legend Donovan Solano on their bench. Solano has actually out-produced Arraez this season by both fWAR (1.0 vs 0.5) and wRC+ (122 vs 103) despite playing in half the games. The Twins will also see Bomba Squad starter Martín Pérez in the series. Perez has been okay since departing the Twins Cities but has seen made meaningful improvements since arriving in San Diego, nearly doubling his strikeout rate while cutting his walk rate in half. That’s a recipe for success.

New Rotation Pieces

San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies

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Speaking of rotation additions, the Padres also acquired Dylan Cease and Michael King in offseason trades. Cease has taken a meaningful step forward from where he was in 2022 when he finished second in Cy Young voting, striking out more even batters while limiting his walks and hits to career lows. He also threw a no-hitter two weeks ago, something he nearly did against the Twins in 2022 before Arraez broke it up with two outs in the ninth. Minnesota will avoid him in this series, luckily.

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They will have to face Michael King, the crown jewel of the Juan Soto trade. King converted to starting toward the end of 2023 and dazzled in the new role. He was a power sinker/sweeper guy as a reliever but has added a changeup that might be his best pitch. Finally, a quick shout-out to Michael Waldron, a knuckleballer who has quietly been decent this season, which is always fun.

Unexpected Stars

San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies

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The Padres’ surprising success, despite trading away Soto and stars Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis missing time due to injury, has been thanks to their emerging stars. Veteran Jurickson Profar and rookie Jackson Merrill lead the team in fWAR, despite neither having a clear path to the Opening Day roster a few months ago. Profar has broken out at 31 years old with a 147 wRC+, trailing only MVP contenders Shohei Ohtani, Ketel Marte, and Marcel Ozuna. Merill, meanwhile, never played a game above AA before breaking camp as the team’s centerfielder, a position he had never played prior to Spring Training. The 21-year-old has thrived on instincts while putting up All-Star offense, trailing only Aaron Judge, Byron Buxton, and Jarren Duran in wRC+ among centerfielders.

They’ve also gotten surprising contributions from veterans David Peralta, Kyle Higashioka, and Solano. Each has a wRC+ at least 15% above league average, exactly what this Padres team needed around their stars.

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Three Down

Tatis’ Latest Injury

Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres

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Fernando Tatis has had an rollercoaster career but has settled in as a rock-solid contributor since moving to right field last season. Tatis isn’t showing the gaudy offensive numbers he did early on, but is still well above average in that department while putting up some of the best defensive metrics in baseball. He’s been out since mid-June with a stress reaction in his right femur, something that could easily turn into a multi-year injury if not given enough time to heal. The Padres have to be careful, and the aforementioned Peralta is filling in admirably in the meantime, but any World Series hopes San Diego carries feature Tatis front and center.

Kim in Question

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San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies

Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

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Ha-Seong Kim has quietly emerged as one of the more valuable players around the league. The Korean product is one of the best defensive shortstops in the game and has improved to be a league-average hitter, a marked step up from his early career. Kim jammed his throwing shoulder diving back to first base yesterday and may end up on the IL. He will almost assuredly miss this series, which is a major hit for San Diego. Though the team is essentially built out of former shortstops, they don’t have a clear replacement on the roster.

The logical candidate would be Xander Bogaerts, a career shortstop before 2024, but he slid over to second because his defense had fallen off a cliff. He also is coming off an extended IL stint with a shoulder injury of his own, and the Padres likely don’t want to risk losing another key cog. Other options include infielder Jake Cronenworth who has played all over the infield but has settled in primarily at first and second base and hasn’t played short in any extended role since 2021. Utility man Tyler Wade is also on the roster, but he is a zero offensively. Regardless of the choice, expect to see a lot more Donovan Solano in the lineup as he will backfill whoever moves over.

Hot, Hot, Hot

San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies

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This is more of a “down” for the Twins because there’s not much negative to say about this team right now! The Twins are tied for the most wins in baseball since August 1 with 11. The team they’re tied with? The San Diego Padres, who have gone 11-4 since then and 20-6 since the All-Star break. It’s all clicking at the right time for the Dads. Depending on your current feelings on the Guardians and Orioles, this might be the best team the Twins face the rest of the way.

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Another day, another failure of brevity. Listen, I had an Arraez rant locked and loaded and we don’t see the Padres often, so I had a lot to say. Cut me some slack.



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Coastal Commission ruling opens door to development of National City waterfront

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Coastal Commission ruling opens door to development of National City waterfront


National City’s Pepper Park can soon expand in size by nearly 50%, thanks to a ruling this week by the California Coastal Commission to approve the National City Balanced Plan.

The approval of the plan at the CCC’s Wednesday meeting, developed by the Port of San Diego, means that not only will the popular park have the ability to increase in size, big changes are coming for commercial, recreation and maritime uses on the National City bayfront.

“We are grateful to the California Coastal Commission for its support of the National City Balanced Plan,” said Danielle Moore, chair of the Board of Port Commissioners. “The progress we have made has been anchored in tireless collaboration with the community, business leaders and, of course, the city of National City. It’s about bringing more recreational opportunities to the bayfront while also streamlining and strengthening maritime operations, and we are eager to bring these projects to life.”

Other components of the balanced plan include:

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  • Realigning Marina Way to serve as the buffer area between commercial recreation and maritime uses
  • The closure of Tidelands Avenue between Bay Marina Drive and West 32nd Street, and West 28th Street between Tidelands Avenue and Quay Avenue, around six acres, to increase terminal efficiency by eliminating redundancies
  • The development of a recreational vehicle park, tent sites, cabins and the “ultimate development of up to two hotels with up to 365 rooms, as well as dry boat storage,” a port statement read
  • A connector rail project to connect the existing rail and loop track located on the National City Marine Terminal to additional rail car storage spots at the existing Burlington Northern Santa Fe National City Yard east of the National Distribution Center

The Board of Port Commissioners must accept the CCC’s certification, then the port and city can begin the process of completing the above projects.

“I am proud of the work we have done to help create a lasting legacy for National City, the Port of San Diego, and the entire region,” said Port Commissioner GilAnthony Ungab. “Nearly a decade in the making, this plan balances the interests of the community and many other stakeholders, addresses public access, maritime, and recreation uses, and expands waterfront access in my community.”

The National City Bayfront is 273 acres of waterfront land and 167 acres of water, and includes the National City Marine Terminal, Pepper Park, Pier 32 Marina, the Aquatic Center and pieces of public art.



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Gloria announces effort to add more townhomes, cottages to San Diego neighborhoods

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Gloria announces effort to add more townhomes, cottages to San Diego neighborhoods


Mayor Todd Gloria announced an initiative Wednesday intended to expand housing options in neighborhoods by integrating small-scale residences such as townhomes, rowhomes and cottages into an area’s existing character.

The Neighborhood Homes for All of Us initiative is also intended to support community land trusts — nonprofit organizations that acquire land to create permanent affordable housing.

“Since Day 1 of my administration, I have been focused on building more homes that San Diegans can actually afford — and getting them built faster,” Gloria said at a news conference Wednesday. “‘Neighborhood Homes for All of Us’ is the latest piece of that puzzle. This innovative program will break down the barriers that have gotten in the way of building the type of housing that I believe is ideal for young families and first-time homebuyers for whom the dream of homeownership has long felt out of reach.”

Around 80% of land zoned for housing in the city is restricted to single-family homes, which continue to increase in price, Gloria said. And a significant portion of new housing being built consists of apartment buildings with primarily studio and one-bedroom units, leaving working-class families fewer and fewer options for homes.

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Neighborhood Homes for All of Us is intended to increase the housing supply and allow community land trusts to keep housing affordable in disadvantaged communities for low- to middle-income families.

“San Diego is an incredible place to raise a family, and more families need the opportunity to do that in San Diego’s existing, highly desirable single-family neighborhoods where their kids can learn and play in a great community,” City Planning Director Heidi Vonblum said. “But today, that comes at a price that is out of reach for too many. Integrating more options for families requires careful and thoughtful planning, with input from existing and future community members across the city, to ensure these new home opportunities for San Diego’s families are built in ways that best enhance and benefit San Diego’s amazing neighborhoods.”

The initiative will roll out in two phases. In the first phase, beginning this week and continuing through next summer, San Diegans can help determine what the neighborhoods can look like. The public will be able to see renderings showing small-scale neighborhood homes within San Diego’s existing communities, along with new regulations that “provide a clear pathway for building these homes,” according to a statement from Gloria’s office.

Phase 1 will also include an open house and ways for the community to provide feedback and concerns.

Phase 2, scheduled for the second half of 2026, will be for city staff to develop regulations allowing for the building of more neighborhood homes in a way informed by the public feedback.

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The initiative is partly funded through a Regional Early Action Planning grant from the San Diego Association of Governments.



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Affordable housing project for San Diego Unified teachers moves forward

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Affordable housing project for San Diego Unified teachers moves forward


The first of five affordable housing projects for San Diego Unified School District teachers was approved on Wednesday night.

The school board voted unanimously in favor of working with the developer who bid on the project at the Instructional Media Center on Cardinal Lane. The Affordable Workhouse Housing project promises 100% affordability, with 108 one-, two- and three-bedroom units, and some surface lot parking.

“It’s a practical solution to a very real problem, and it sends a message that we are committed to stability, not just for employees but for the students,” one speaker said.

Board members say the project will be fully funded by the developer, DECRO Corporation based in Culver City, and that the estimated annual rent revenue is $125,000 dollars. It is expected to increase 2.5% each year.

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Some in the neighborhood are concerned.

“We are one way in and one way out. We are built in a canyon,” neighbor Callie Grear said.

“Parking here is horrible,” neighbor Paul Grear said. “Everybody is parking in front of our street. I can’t even park in front of my house.”

“The safety of our neighborhood is in jeopardy with this plan,” neighbor Patricia Torres said. “We are already overcrowded. We are asking this board to reconsider building on this site.”

Despite the pushback, board members unanimously voted in favor of moving forward with the developer on this project. Unless exempt, it will first undergo city scrutiny. There are still four other locations still on which SDUSD wants to build.

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A vote for housing on those other four properties has been postponed until January so that the school board can hold a workshop and appropriately question the developers that are bidding on those projects.

In all five projects, San Diego Unified hopes to build 555 units in the next 10 years.



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