San Diego, CA

Three Up, Three Down: San Diego Padres

Published

1 year ago

August 19, 2024

I tried doing these series previews early in the season before they ended up being too time-consuming and real life got in the way. Anyone who has read my in-depth pieces or listened to my podcast with John Ke knows brevity is not my strong suit. This time around, I borrowed a format from our mutual friend, Bleed Cubbie Blue site manager Al Yellon, to hopefully limit myself while still providing the relevant analysis. Let’s get into it.

Three Up

Old Friends, New Places

Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

The Padres have a few former Twins, including fan-favorite and two-time batting champ Luis Arraez. I don’t want to rail against a three-time All-Star too much, but this is just your yearly reminder that batting average isn’t important in 2024. Arraez is second in the NL in BA among qualified hitters but has only accumulated 0.5 fWAR, ranking 65th among qualified NL batters and 128th overall in the NL.

What has Arraez’s value so low? The rest of his profile has regressed to the point the Twins feared when they traded him away two years ago. Defensively, he is limited to DH already at 27-years-old. In his limited time on the field, he ranks last in Outs Above Average and the bottom 10th percentile of arm strength. On the offensive side, there’s no power with a bottom-five .073 ISO and only 19 of his 110 hits going for extra bases. He has a 10th-percentile average exit velocity, 2nd-percentile barrel rate, and 3rd-percentile hard-hit rate. Weirdly, his chase rate is also way up compared to when he was with the Twins, ranking in the 12th percentile there. He doesn’t whiff when he chases leading to countless weak outs early in counts, which is worse than a whiff. Oh also, his 3.4% walk rate is the second worst in baseball, giving him the same OBP as Willi Castro who is hitting .258. Overall, Arraez has a league-average 103 wRC+ while making over $10 million and another hefty raise due in arbitration this summer. It’s not what you want.

The Padres also have 2023 curse-breaking legend Donovan Solano on their bench. Solano has actually out-produced Arraez this season by both fWAR (1.0 vs 0.5) and wRC+ (122 vs 103) despite playing in half the games. The Twins will also see Bomba Squad starter Martín Pérez in the series. Perez has been okay since departing the Twins Cities but has seen made meaningful improvements since arriving in San Diego, nearly doubling his strikeout rate while cutting his walk rate in half. That’s a recipe for success.

New Rotation Pieces

Speaking of rotation additions, the Padres also acquired Dylan Cease and Michael King in offseason trades. Cease has taken a meaningful step forward from where he was in 2022 when he finished second in Cy Young voting, striking out more even batters while limiting his walks and hits to career lows. He also threw a no-hitter two weeks ago, something he nearly did against the Twins in 2022 before Arraez broke it up with two outs in the ninth. Minnesota will avoid him in this series, luckily.

They will have to face Michael King, the crown jewel of the Juan Soto trade. King converted to starting toward the end of 2023 and dazzled in the new role. He was a power sinker/sweeper guy as a reliever but has added a changeup that might be his best pitch. Finally, a quick shout-out to Michael Waldron, a knuckleballer who has quietly been decent this season, which is always fun.

Unexpected Stars

The Padres’ surprising success, despite trading away Soto and stars Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis missing time due to injury, has been thanks to their emerging stars. Veteran Jurickson Profar and rookie Jackson Merrill lead the team in fWAR, despite neither having a clear path to the Opening Day roster a few months ago. Profar has broken out at 31 years old with a 147 wRC+, trailing only MVP contenders Shohei Ohtani, Ketel Marte, and Marcel Ozuna. Merill, meanwhile, never played a game above AA before breaking camp as the team’s centerfielder, a position he had never played prior to Spring Training. The 21-year-old has thrived on instincts while putting up All-Star offense, trailing only Aaron Judge, Byron Buxton, and Jarren Duran in wRC+ among centerfielders.

They’ve also gotten surprising contributions from veterans David Peralta, Kyle Higashioka, and Solano. Each has a wRC+ at least 15% above league average, exactly what this Padres team needed around their stars.

Three Down

Tatis’ Latest Injury

Fernando Tatis has had an rollercoaster career but has settled in as a rock-solid contributor since moving to right field last season. Tatis isn’t showing the gaudy offensive numbers he did early on, but is still well above average in that department while putting up some of the best defensive metrics in baseball. He’s been out since mid-June with a stress reaction in his right femur, something that could easily turn into a multi-year injury if not given enough time to heal. The Padres have to be careful, and the aforementioned Peralta is filling in admirably in the meantime, but any World Series hopes San Diego carries feature Tatis front and center.

Kim in Question

Ha-Seong Kim has quietly emerged as one of the more valuable players around the league. The Korean product is one of the best defensive shortstops in the game and has improved to be a league-average hitter, a marked step up from his early career. Kim jammed his throwing shoulder diving back to first base yesterday and may end up on the IL. He will almost assuredly miss this series, which is a major hit for San Diego. Though the team is essentially built out of former shortstops, they don’t have a clear replacement on the roster.

The logical candidate would be Xander Bogaerts, a career shortstop before 2024, but he slid over to second because his defense had fallen off a cliff. He also is coming off an extended IL stint with a shoulder injury of his own, and the Padres likely don’t want to risk losing another key cog. Other options include infielder Jake Cronenworth who has played all over the infield but has settled in primarily at first and second base and hasn’t played short in any extended role since 2021. Utility man Tyler Wade is also on the roster, but he is a zero offensively. Regardless of the choice, expect to see a lot more Donovan Solano in the lineup as he will backfill whoever moves over.

Hot, Hot, Hot

This is more of a “down” for the Twins because there’s not much negative to say about this team right now! The Twins are tied for the most wins in baseball since August 1 with 11. The team they’re tied with? The San Diego Padres, who have gone 11-4 since then and 20-6 since the All-Star break. It’s all clicking at the right time for the Dads. Depending on your current feelings on the Guardians and Orioles, this might be the best team the Twins face the rest of the way.

Another day, another failure of brevity. Listen, I had an Arraez rant locked and loaded and we don’t see the Padres often, so I had a lot to say. Cut me some slack.

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San Diego, CA

Guest Column: The black hole in the center of Poway

Published

9 hours ago

December 18, 2025

Press Room

Guest Column: The black hole in the center of Poway

Those of us who live near the City of Poway Town Center have experienced and continue to see a development project that has languished for over five years and now clearly can be defined as blight.

It is a “black hole” that is anchored in the center of the city near the intersection of Poway and Community roads, one block from City Hall. The project is adjacent to the Poway shopping center plaza, a Section 8 apartment complex and the Poway Bernardo Mortuary.

Those of us who live in central Poway have this visual blight, which consists of a partially constructed vacant multistory building and an unfinished tiered underground parking structure. This incomplete project was approved by the City Council in 2018 as a mixed-use development project.

It sits on a one-and-a-half-acre infill site and was originally permitted for 53 residential units, a 40,000-square-foot commercial space, a 20,025-square-foot fitness center and a two-tiered underground parking structure.

Over the last five years it has transitioned through three different developers and multiple permit amendments. The current and final amended project is a significantly scaled-down project. It would take someone with a bachelor’s degree in city and urban planning to read the permit amendments and comprehend what the final project will consist of if and when it is completed.

Those of us who live in or near the Town Center district are aware the Poway Road Specific Plan was approved with City Council commitment that high-density development would be well planned and would consist of “efficient high-density development.”

A blighted development project that has not been completed and has remained vacant and unfinished for five years is not keeping with the Specific Plan. This project is a blemish on central Poway. The City Council has not implemented solutions to complete this unfinished project.

Further, other development projects in the same corridor have as a matter of practice during their construction phases posted signage on their respective construction fencing, advertising what the project consists of and when it is estimated to be completed. The “black hole” has no such signage on its construction fencing and the general public has no idea what this project consists of or when it will be completed.

Direct attempts and meetings to obtain information from previous and current city representatives have resulted in finger-pointing at the developer. Two developers have already walked away from this project and the third and current developer is under contract with a local general contractor.

The City Council approved, conditioned and permitted this project. I have to think that if this project was located in the “Farm” development area and stood half developed and vacant for over five years there would be a different level of urgency by the council to finding a solution to correct this unsightly development project.

The council has failed those of us who live in and near the Poway Town Center corridor. Stop blaming the developer and get this failed project completed.

Locke is a 22-year U.S. Marine Corp veteran and a longtime Poway resident.

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San Diego, CA

Frustrated teachers walk out of SBUSD meeting that decided to close Central Elementary

Published

21 hours ago

December 18, 2025

Press Room

Frustrated teachers walk out of SBUSD meeting that decided to close Central Elementary

Frustrations boiled over at Wednesday night’s South Bay Union School District meeting. Parents and teachers are upset that the district is going to shut down Central Elementary and possibly two others at a later time.

At one point in the meeting, teachers got so upset that they walked out. It came after the school board voted unanimously to approve an interim superintendent’s pay package for nearly $18,500 a month.

That payday comes at time when teachers rallied outside the meeting because they might strike since they’ve been in contract negotiations for more than a year.

The board also voted unanimously to close Central Elementary at the end of this school year. Berry and Sunnyslope Elementary schools could close as well, at a later time. But that’ll be based on a review of enrollment and financial data going forward.

The district says declining enrollment and declining revenues are major problems and factors in its decision. It says keeping under enrolled schools open would increase maintenance costs, stretch limited resources and hamper the ability to deliver equitable services across all schools.

But teachers and parents say paying the interim superintendent that amount of money shows it’s a matter of allocation and priorities.

Hinting that district leaders are being scrooges, a group of teachers took a page out of “A Christmas Carol” and dressed as ghosts.

“By closing these doors, you destroyed the heart of community. Families see no future, pack their cars and leave behind empty houses and desolate streets,” one teacher said.

While only Central is closing this year, Sunnyslope could close at the end of the 2028-2029 school year. Berry could close at the end of the 2031-2032 school year.

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San Diego, CA

Spring Valley Christian school teacher suspected of sexually abusing child

Published

1 day ago

December 17, 2025

Press Room

Spring Valley Christian school teacher suspected of sexually abusing child

A 49-year-old teacher at Christian High School, suspected of sexually abusing a minor, was arrested Tuesday outside the Spring Valley school affiliated with Shadow Mountain Community Church.

Kevin G. Conover was booked at the San Diego Central Jail on suspicion of oral copulation with a victim under 18, aggravated sexual abuse of a child under 14, three counts of lewd and lascivious acts with a child, and continuous sexual abuse of a child, according to the San Diego County Sheriff’s Office.

Deputies initially responded to a radio call regarding sexual assault allegations of a minor by a family member on Oct. 1, prompting an immediate investigation by Child Abuse Unit detectives, who later found probable cause to arrest Conover, sheriff’s officials said.

Conover was described as a teacher at the school in Tuesday’s statement from the sheriff’s office announcing his arrest. However, there were no references to him on the school’s website on Tuesday night.

The investigation remains ongoing by the Child Abuse Unit as investigators conduct a follow-up into the allegations.

Anyone with information regarding the alleged abuse was urged to call the Child Abuse Unit at 858-285-6112. Calls after business hours should be directed to 858-868-3200. Tipsters who remain anonymous can call Crime Stoppers at 888-580-8477.

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