San Diego Padres (25-24) vs. Cincinnati Reds (19-28) May 21, 2024 6:40 pm EDT The Line: Cincinnati Reds -105 / San Diego Padres -105; Over/Under: +9 (Get latest betting odds)
In this article, we will formulate a Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Prediction for this MLB Game on Tuesday, May 21st at the Great American Ballpark.
Reds Are Struggling
The Reds are struggling heading into this game and they have lost three games in a row. In the last game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Reds scored only two runs and they ended up losing by a run on Sunday. Spencer Steer finished with a walk and an RBI. The Reds are averaging 4.15 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.29 runs per game. The offense is ranked 19th in the league while the pitching is ranked 13th. Elly De La Cruz has hit nine home runs and driven in 22 RBIs. Getting the start for the Reds will be Andrew Abbott who sits with a 2-4 record and an ERA of 3.06. In his last start against the Arizona Diamondbacks, he went seven innings giving up four hits and one run.
Why the Reds Will Win
The underdogs have won six of the Padres’ last seven games.
The Padres have lost each of their last three games as favorites.
The Reds have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against National League opponents following a road loss.
The Padres have failed to cover the run line each of their last four games against teams that held a losing record.
The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents.
Padres Split Two on Monday
The Padres won the first game on Monday against the Atlanta Braves, but in the second game the offense failed to score any runs and that led to the 3-0 defeat. Randy Vasquez was on the mound and he went six innings giving up 10 hits and three runs. He had two strikeouts and zero walks. The Padres are averaging 4.67 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.37 runs per game. The offense is ranked 8th in the league while the pitching is ranked 16th. They are batting .258 as a team which is 3rd in the league. Jake Cronenworth has hit eight home runs and driven in 32 RBIsk. Getting the start for the Padres will be Joe Musgrove who sits with a 3-3 record and an ERA of 6.37. In his last start against the Cincinnati Reds, he went six innings giving up four hits and two runs. The Padres are going to need a strong start from Musgrove.
Why The Padres Will Win
The Padres have won each of their last eight road games against National League opponents following a road loss.
The Reds have lost each of their last seven games at Great American Ball Park.
The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last eight road games against National League opponents following a road loss.
The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games at Great American Ball Park.
The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five home games against National League opponents.
The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last five Tuesday games against the Reds.
Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Prediction
I really don’t trust Musgrove or this Padres team. Musgrove sits with an ERA of 6.37 and he’s going to really struggle again in this game. The Reds are averaging 4.15 runs per game and they are going to have no issue running up the score. The Padres offense will struggle here against Abbott and this is going to be a comfortable for the Reds. Back the Reds on the money line to cash.
When the U.S. military built the Camp Pendleton Harbor complex just north of Oceanside in 1942, it didn’t set out to steal Oceanside’s beaches for decades to come.
But that’s exactly what’s been happening for the past 73 years.
In 1953, the federal government admitted that construction of harbor jetties at Camp Pendleton was directly contributing to the erosion of Oceanside’s beaches. The jetties block the ocean’s currents that carry sand along the coast, which causes Oceanside’s beaches south of the military base to lose out on sand that would have naturally flowed to them.
Rising sea levels caused by climate change also play a part, but in Oceanside, naturally occurring erosion has been exacerbated by the military base.
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But the military is only just now stepping in to help. While the government’s admission of guilt seemed like a win, it somewhat backfired; because the federal government was on the hook for the entire cost, the project got swallowed by a bureaucratic black hole. Tired of waiting, Oceanside launched its own plan to save its beaches, one the military now refuses to help fund.
What Took so Long
Boulder walls — called rip rap or revetments — along beach homes in Oceanside are used to protect properties from waves and high tides. / Photo by Adriana Heldiz
In 2000, Congress passed a law mandating the Army Corps to study how it could restore Oceanside’s beaches to pre-harbor conditions.
The government was supposed to pay for the study and complete it in 44 months. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers finally released the draft report of the study earlier this month – 26 years later.“Studies require both authorization and funding,” said Shawn Davis, public affairs specialist for the Army Corps, via email. “While the study was initially authorized in 2000, there have been gaps in funding that have impacted the timeline to complete the study.”
Those funding gaps happened until 2022 when Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, whose district includes much of North County’s coastal cities, helped secure $1.8 million in federal funding and another $2.27 million in 2025 to complete the study.
So, why did the funding dry up for so long at the federal level? According to Davis, “federal projects can only proceed and continue with appropriations from Congress.”
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In other words, the project was stuck in bureaucratic limbo; it had the legal authorization to exist, but it couldn’t secure funds in a highly competitive budget that favored bigger projects.
Jayme Timberlake, Oceanside’s coastal zone administrator, told Voice of San Diego that the city and its representatives tried lobbying Congress for years, but there are often a lot of unknowns when it comes to Army Corps projects.
“It’s very political. It’s very much dependent on what the rest of the nation is going through and where the funds are going and how they’re getting allocated,” Timberlake said. “It’s very tough to navigate and there’s a lot of risk associated with it, meaning we can’t really rely on it.”
Other coastal cities received a plan before Oceanside did: The Corps completed similar studies for two sand replenishment efforts. One is a joint effort in Encinitas and Solana Beach, the other in San Clemente. Congress has already approved both of these projects for sand deliveries every seven to 10 years for the next 50 years.
“The difference is that the … projects that are happening in Encinitas, Solana Beach and San Clemente were initiated by a request to the Army Corps from these cites, and they were cost shared,” Timberlake said.
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That means these cities are paying 35 percent of the costs, and the federal government is paying 65 percent. That also applies to sand deliveries every seven to 10 years. These types of projects can cost upwards of $100 million.
“In Oceanside, our mitigation project, at least the study was not cost shared. It was the full responsibility of the federal government because they admitted fault,” Timberlake said. “So, it’s really unfortunate that the mitigation for Oceanside beaches didn’t happen before those requested projects.”
Meanwhile, Oceanside’s Sand Was Disappearing
View of Pier, beach, Strand, Pacific Street and downtown prior to 1930. / Oceanside Historical Society
While Oceanside officials and residents waited for the government’s help, the city’s beaches were rapidly disappearing before their eyes.
Previous Army Corps studies estimate the Harbor has caused a loss of 1.4 to 1.6 million cubic yards of sand volume from Oceanside’s beaches since 1942, with some areas retreating at a rate of 6.6 feet per year. That’s 84 years of consistent and severe sand loss.
El Niño conditions over the years have also exacerbated the problem.
“There was such a dramatic loss of sand that the community really started asking for solutions,” Timberlake said. “There’s a whole generation that has been able to use the beach and then have it be gone, so it has triggered a lot of community interest.”
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After 20 years of waiting, Oceanside decided to take matters into its own hands.
“Once there was momentum to fix the problem itself and not rely on the Army Corps any further, the city did a feasibility study in 2020, and that study really unearthed all the possible things that Oceanside could do in the short and long term to fix its beaches,” Timberlake said.
A few years later, city officials held a competition that brought together three design teams from around the world to develop sand retention pilot projects. They chose a concept that includes the construction of two headlands that will aim to stabilize sand on the back beach, with an offshore artificial reef aimed at slowing down nearshore erosive forces.
The project is called RE:Beach and it’s already funded up to the construction phase, Timberlake said. The city has applied for a few different grants to cover construction, which will cost upwards of $60 million.
Timberlake said the city asked the Army Corps to help fund the rest of the RE:Beach project, and the Army Corps denied the request.
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The Government’s Plan
A fisherman walks at the beach close to high tide in Oceanside on Sept. 1, 2023. / Photo by Ariana Drehsler
Oceanside’s RE:Beach project and the federal government’s recent recommendations won’t conflict with each other, Timberlake said. In fact, the two projects will complement one another.
The Army Corps’ draft feasibility report identified beach nourishment (a lot of sand) as the tentatively selected plan to restore Oceanside’s beaches.
It calls for dredging 4 million cubic yards of sand from an offshore borrow site and then placing it along Oceanside’s beaches, with the goal of sustaining a minimum 85-foot wide beach from Oceanside Harbor south to Buena Vista Lagoon. Sand replenishment would be 1 million cubic yards the first cycle, then repeated every 10 years.
Realistically, though, it could be another couple decades before Oceanside’s beaches start receiving sand, Timberlake said.
That’s because there are other competing projects the Army Corps is working on. Plus,, Congress still has to appropriate funding for the rest of the project to move forward once the feasibility study is completed. Initial costs of construction are currently estimated to be $243,540,000, Davis, spokesperson for the Army Corps, said via email.
It’s still unclear if the government will cover the full costs of construction and the subsequent sand renourishments for Oceanside, but Levin told Voice he thinks it’s unlikely.
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“I will advocate for every penny to come from the federal government, given that the government did acknowledge responsibility,” Levin said. “But I do also know how the Army Corps works, and it’s very likely they’ll want some sort of cost share.”
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is proposing major funding cuts to the Army Corps’ budget for fiscal year 2027. If those cuts are approved by Congress, it could have an impact on projects like this one.
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