California
Commentary: Key Questions for November from the California Primary Vote
An earlier version of this commentary was published by Carnegie California on March 28, 2024.
What did we learn from the California primary vote on Super Tuesday? With results now certified by California’s secretary of state, it’s an opportune time to assess the official outcome and look ahead to November. The primary vote highlights several concerning trends in the condition of the state’s democracy and offers a preview of the major role that the nation’s most populous state will play in the November general election.
Will enthusiasm and turnout remain low?
Of the state’s 22 million registered voters, 7.7 million (or 35 percent) cast ballots in the primary contest. Voter turnout is frequently a political wild card, and this vote was no exception. In PPIC’s February survey, Californians sent mixed signals by affirming the importance of voting while expressing a lack of enthusiasm. Despite the state’s efforts to increase political participation—requiring all counties to mail every registered voter a ballot and moving the primary date from June to March—Super Tuesday’s turnout remained low. By comparison, 47 percent of registered voters cast ballots in the March 2020 Primary, and 48 percent voted in the June 2016 Primary.
The state’s efforts to encourage voter participation will need some rethinking, with special attention to regions where turnout was below the state average, such as the Central Valley, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire. These regions include the competitive races that will help to determine the party in control of the US House of Representatives. The March primary also forebodes a November turnout that may underperform when compared with the record 17.8 million ballots cast in the November 2020 election.
What matters in a presidential re-run election?
The lack of drama in the presidential contest likely contributed to the low turnout in the California primary, whose results mirrored other states. President Joe Biden won with 89 percent in the Democratic primary, and former president Donald Trump won with 79 percent in the Republican primary. These results are aligned with the findings of the February PPIC survey. Biden is expected to win in California in the general election, as Democrats outnumber Republicans 47 percent to 24 percent, GOP candidates have not won a statewide race since 2006, and Biden previously defeated Trump by a wide margin.
Two political wild cards raised by the California presidential primaries: the numbers and makeup of partisans not voting in the March primary who will cast their ballots in November, and whether the 29 percent of voters who are not registered Republicans or Democrats will opt for third-party candidates, continue to lean Democrat, or not vote.
Is it time to revisit the top-two senate primary system?
The March senate primary raises issues about the unintended consequences of the top-two primary system. In this system, which was approved in a 2010 ballot initiative, voters cast primary ballots for all candidates in statewide and legislative races, not just those in their registered party, and the top two vote-getters appear on the general election ballot. The March senate primary was the most blatant example to date of a Democratic front-runner deliberately helping a Republican candidate to qualify for the top-two general election, knowing that any Republican has a slim-to-nonexistent chance of winning a statewide race. The primary ballot listed twenty-seven Senate candidates, but only Democrat Adam Schiff, Democrat Katie Porter, Republican Steve Garvey, and Democrat Barbara Lee were likely contenders, with Schiff and Garvey advancing. Schiff’s campaign aired a flurry of late commercials for Garvey, and Porter came in third. The political gamesmanship of a Democrat working to run against a Republican in the fall may increase cynicism at a time when some voters are feeling distrustful of democracy and elections. After a decade of experience with the open primary, it may be time for California to reconsider the process.
Where will US House races matter most?
California voters eliminated legislative gerrymandering when they voted for a citizens’ independent redistricting commission more than a decade ago. The primary outcomes for the state’s fifty-two US House seats still include many lopsided victories that mirror California’s red and blue regions and the inland and coastal partisan divides. In addition, the top two winners in every legislative primary race are either Democrat or Republican, with no third-party or independent candidates on the November ballot. The March primary results in the competitive House districts point to four tight races in the Central Valley and Orange County. These races include both Republican and Democratic incumbents and an open seat that will have national interest this fall, and all will help to determine the party that controls a closely divided Congress.
What does Prop 1’s fate portend for fall ballot measures?
The single measure that was placed on the March primary ballot with bipartisan legislative support passed by a slim margin: 50.2 percent yes, 49.8 percent no. Proposition 1, the government’s response to broad public recognition of major problems facing California, includes a $6.38 billion state bond for mental health treatment and funding for homelessness programs.
There were warning signs in the February PPIC survey that the Proposition 1 vote could be close. In the survey, 48 percent said that now was a “bad time” to issue this state bond, and 50 percent said they disapproved of Governor Gavin Newsom, who championed the measure and made the final pitch for yes in television commercials. The Proposition 1 vote is consistent with the narrow defeat of a state education bond in the March 2020 primary.
In addition, the vote is a reminder that many Californians are fiscal conservatives when it comes to state spending. The latest proof is the mix of red and blue counties where Proposition 1 had difficulty gaining traction. The measure is a wakeup call for legislators’ plans for other state bond measures, and a citizens’ initiative that would limit state and local tax increases may be on the November ballot.
California
GOP California governor candidates to face off at Clovis forum ahead of primary
With California’s June 2nd primary election nearing, Republican candidates for governor, Steve Hilton and Sheriff Chad Bianco, are set to appear at a forum in Clovis.
The Fresno County & City Republican Women Federated is hosting its “Celebrating 250 Years of America Dinner” and a gubernatorial forum on Friday, May 22nd, at The Regency Event Center, 1600 Willow Ave., in Clovis.
The forum will be moderated by State Senator Shannon Grove.
The discussion is expected to focus on major issues facing Californians, with questions presented via video by a panel of state and local figures, including Fresno County District Attorney Lisa Smittcamp on public safety and crime; former Fresno County Sheriff Margaret Mims on border control and citizenship; William Bourdeau of Bourdeau Farms LLC on water rights and agricultural issues; California state Assemblymember David Tangipa on taxation and fiscal responsibility; Jonathan Keller of the California Family Council on parental rights and education; and Matthew Dildine, CEO of Fresno Mission, on homelessness and mental health.
Clovis Mayor Pro Tem Diane Pearce and Fresno County Supervisor Nathan Magsig are listed as masters of ceremonies.
Doors are scheduled to open at 4:30 p.m., followed by a social hour at 5 p.m. Dinner and the program are set for 6 p.m.
Attire is listed as cocktail or business formal. Organizers said a portion of the proceeds will benefit the Veterans Home of California – Fresno.
GOP California governor candidates to face off at Clovis forum ahead of primary (Courtesy: Fresno County & City Republican Women Federated)
[RELATED] Top-two primary could pit same-party rivals as crowded Democratic field fractures votes
“This forum comes at a pivotal moment for our state,” FCCRWF event organizers said. “Bringing the top Republican gubernatorial candidates to Clovis allows Valley families, farmers, and business owners to get real answers on the issues that affect their daily lives, from water infrastructure to public safety and the skyrocketing cost of living.”
Individual tickets are $150, with discounts offered to FCCRWF members.
Table sponsorships are available at the $1,500, $2,500 and $5,000 levels.
Tickets and sponsorships are available online at FresnoRepublicanWomen.org.
California
Amazon halts high-speed e-bike sales in California following fatal crashes
Orange County’s top prosecutor said Amazon has agreed to stop California sales of certain e-bikes that can go faster than state speed limits following a series of fatal collisions.
The announcement, first reported by KCRA, comes on the heels of an April consumer alert by California Attorney General Rob Bonta that highlighted a rise in deaths related to e-bike and motorcycle crashes.
“We are seeing a surge of safety incidents on our sidewalks, parks, and streets,” Bonta said in a statement. “To ride a motorcycle or moped, you need to have the appropriate driver’s license and comply with rules of the road.”
Bonta’s alert stated that pedal-assisted e-bikes cannot exceed 28 mph. Throttle-assisted e-bikes are limited to 20 mph.
Amazon had continued to sell e-bikes with speeds over 40 mph. Amazon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Electric bikes and motorcycles have become increasingly popular in the last few years, particularly among teens. But the surge has been shadowed by a spate of deadly crashes.
Orange County Dist. Atty. Todd Spitzer has charged at least three parents with allowing their children to ride electric motorcycles illegally, calling the vehicles a “loaded weapon.”
Spitzer noted in a post on X that Amazon said it removed e-bikes advertised with speeds over 40 miles per hour after KCRA contacted the company.
“The company said it has removed the examples provided and is investigating compliance for similar products,” Spitzer wrote.
That includes an Orange County mother, who faces an involuntary manslaughter charge after her son allegedly struck an 81-year-old man with an electric motorcycle. The 14-year-old boy had been doing wheelies on an e-motorcycle
A 13-year-old boy on an e-bike in Garden Grove died earlier this week after veering into the center median and hurtling onto the roadway. The boy was traveling at around 35 mph on a black E Ride Pro electric motorcycle, authorities said.
Amazon’s new sales limits come as the Los Angeles City Council pushes to keep electric bikes of off most city recreational trails, arguing they are a threat to hikers. E-bikes would still be allowed on designated bikeways, such as along the L.A. River.
California
After exile, California tribes could help run their ancestral redwoods again
Daniel Felix, 10, looks out from atop a gargantuan stump of an old-growth redwood on his tribe’s ancestral land. Once, this forest on California’s North Coast was replete with the ancient behemoths that can live beyond 2,000 years.
Only a fraction are left now, depleted by a logging company before the state acquired the forest in the 1940s.
This is unique public land, Jackson Demonstration State Forest, spanning 50,000 acres. Trees are plentiful here, but they might not live a millennium. California’s 14 demonstration forests are required to produce and sell timber to show — or “demonstrate” — sustainable practices. Money from logging — roughly $8.5 million a year — pays for management of the forests by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, or Cal Fire.
Daniel’s tribe, the Coyote Valley Band of Pomo Indians, has pushed to rein in the cutting — spearheaded by his late great-grandmother, Priscilla Hunter. They’re part of a diverse coalition that includes environmental activists, local politicians and other tribes.
Now they may finally get their wish. Assemblymember Chris Rogers (D-Santa Rosa) has introduced a bill that would nix the forests’ logging mandate, instead prioritizing values such as carbon storage, wildfire resilience and biodiversity.
The bill represents the latest chapter in a region legendary for fierce battles over logging, and it marks an uncommon alliance between tribes and the environmental movement.
Under Assembly Bill 2494, there could still be logging, but it would have to support those new principles, and the forests would be funded differently.
And it proposes another significant change. It would pave the way for giving tribes a say in managing the lands for the first time since they were forcibly evicted more than a century ago, and for integrating Indigenous knowledge — like cultural burning — into the forests.
“It’s what we dreamed of,” said Polly Girvin, Hunter’s former partner and a retired lawyer focused on Native American issues. “And to have it come true? I’m used to movements that sometimes take 30 years in Indian Country to get to the justice you’re seeking.”
Kids play in the stump of an ancient redwood during a potluck held after the spirit run in Jackson Demonstration State Forest last month.
(Paul Kuroda / For The Times)
Some backers say the bill offers a new economic path forward for communities behind the so-called redwood curtain. With the decline of logging and cannabis, they see tourism driven by ultramarathons, mushroom foraging and other outdoor activities as a financial savior.
“If we had an increase of 10% of visitors coming to our county because of recreational opportunities, that would more than surpass all of the timber tax in our county,” Mendocino County Supervisor Ted Williams said, projecting an increase in money from a lodging tax.
But the push to reshape forest management is fiercely opposed by loggers and mill owners, who say their work is sustainable and provides blue-collar jobs in a region where they’ve dwindled. Already California imports most of its wood from Oregon, Washington and Canada.
“California has the most rules and regulations of anywhere in the world so all they’re doing is exporting the environmental impact to somewhere else, still using the product,” said Myles Anderson, owner of a logging company in Fort Bragg founded by his grandfather. “It’s pretty disgusting, really.”
Anderson believes the bill will greatly reduce logging, even stop it altogether. In his office, with photos of him and his father at a logging site decades ago, he points out it’s sponsored by the Environmental Protection Information Center. Why else would they and other environmental groups “support it if they didn’t see the same thing that I’m seeing?”
Last month, activists who have sought to rein in logging at Jackson held their first major gathering in about four years, galvanized by the bill that they see as a significant step in the right direction.
(Paul Kuroda / For The Times)
A new but old fight
About five years ago, community members caught wind of plans to chop down towering redwoods within Jackson, near the coastal town of Caspar. Priscilla Hunter would come out to the forest “and could hear them crying — it was our ancestors,” said her daughter Melinda Hunter, the tribe’s vice chairwoman. “Then she had to protect [the trees].”
Environmental activists and Native Americans, not historically allies in the region, joined forces to fight it. “Forest defenders” camped out high in the canopy and blocked logging equipment with their bodies. Some were arrested.
The uprising harked back to the 1980s and 1990s, when iconic environmentalist Judi Bari led Earth First! campaigns against logging in the region. Many of the old tree sitters — white-haired and brimming with stories of Bari — have come out of the woodwork for the latest battle.
For them, it was a win. Cal Fire paused new timber sales and, citing public safety, halted some that were underway — including one expected to generate millions of dollars for Myles Anderson’s logging company.
“We were left with nothing,” Anderson said.
Then, last year, Cal Fire approved the first harvest plan since that hiatus. It riled up the sizable, ecologically minded community.
Jessica Curl, 47, remembers growing up nearby “in a terrain of trunks” as trucks carried out logs. Now the redwoods are regrowing, “gorgeous” and gobbling carbon, she said.
“We’re so lucky to live in an area where we have this amazing climate-change mitigation tool, that if we would just leave it alone would do this amazing work that we’re trying to think of all these cool, inventive things to do.”
Isidro Chavez receives burning sage, or smudging, after a run in Jackson Demonstration State Forest. Smudging is a ritual used to cleanse spaces and individuals of negative energy, promote calm and improve mood.
(Paul Kuroda / For The Times)
Tears of grief, resolve
A group of “spirit runners” — a Native American tradition of bringing prayer — sprinted through the heart of Jackson forest as rain poured through the canopy. The mid-April event marked activists’ first major gathering since protests wound down in 2022.
Attendees gathered in a circle to wait for them. Misty Cook, of the Sherwood Valley Band of Pomo Indians, read a statement as eyes misted all around:
“All the living things around us, they miss us. They miss the language. They miss our touch, our hands, touching all of the things — the water, the plants. They miss the songs. They miss the beat of our footsteps and our voices, and they miss the children’s laughter and play, which was so important. They want us to gather them, to use them and to share them. Otherwise they will get sick and possibly die.”
Cal Fire launched a tribal advisory council to bring Indigenous perspective into Jackson. But some local tribes say it’s not enough because they lack decision-making power.
When the runners arrived, the circle absorbed them. Then they continued on to the site of a controversial proposed harvest, Camp Eight. They wrapped a bandana that belonged to Priscilla Hunter around a small tree — a quiet, somber act where she took her last stand. Runners took turns embracing the trunk.
Redwoods at the Capitol
In March, Rogers’ bill cleared a committee and is now in the Assembly Appropriations Committee’s suspense file. A hearing is set for Thursday.
Funding is a major point of contention. Environmentalists say funding these forests with timber operations incentivizes cutting bigger trees. Cal Fire maintains decisions are driven by forest health, not industry demand.
AB 2494 would fund the forests through a tax on lumber and engineered wood products. The shift could create “[o]ngoing state costs and cost pressures of an unknown but potentially significant amount, possibly in the low millions of dollars annually,” according to a legislative analysis.
The California Forestry Assn., a timber industry trade group, says the idea is a nonstarter.
Cal Fire declined to comment on pending legislation but Kevin Conway, the agency’s staff chief for resource protection and improvement, said its nearly 80-year history managing Jackson reflects “care and attention.” Since the state acquired the forest, “we have more trees on the landscape, more habitat and those trees are trending larger,” he said.
For the tribes who have rallied and prayed, a burning question is whether the land will again reflect their vision, or remain shaped by decisions made by others.
Buffie Campbell, executive director of the InterTribal Sinkyone Wilderness Council — co-founded by Priscilla Hunter and one of the groups supporting the bill — said young people wouldn’t be able to fathom the significance of the legislation passing. Maybe that’s a good thing.
“Maybe they don’t need to know about all the fighting that we have to do before they get to go out and enjoy and be tribal guardians stewarding their land.”
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