Arizona
A near-total ban on abortion has supercharged the political dynamics of Arizona, a key swing state
PHOENIX — Arizona was already expected to be one of the most closely contested states in November’s U.S. presidential election. But a ruling this week instituting a near-total abortion ban supercharged the state’s role, transforming it into perhaps the nation’s most critical battleground.
This Sunbelt state with a fierce independent streak has long been at the forefront of the nation’s immigration debate due to its 378-mile border with Mexico and its large Hispanic and immigrant populations. It now moves to the center of the national debate over reproductive rights after the U.S. Supreme Court ended a federally guaranteed right to abortion.
Abortion and immigration have been two of this year’s biggest political issues. No battleground state has been affected more directly by both than Arizona.
“Do not underestimate this,” Democratic pollster John Anzalone, who polls for President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign, said of the Arizona abortion ruling. “It’s dynamic-changing.”
Biden and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump are expected to fight hard to win Arizona after Biden carried the state four years ago by less than 11,000 votes.
In addition to the presidency, the U.S. Senate majority may be decided by the state’s high-profile contest between Republican Kari Lake and Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego in the race to replace retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with Democrats.
The state Supreme Court’s ruling reviving an abortion ban passed in 1864 also added rocket fuel to Democrats’ push to add a question to the November ballot asking voters to approve a constitutional amendment protecting the right to abortion until viability, when a fetus could survive outside the womb. Later abortions would be allowed to save the woman’s life or protect her physical or mental health.
Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita, who also serves as chief of staff to the Republican National Committee, described Arizona as “a key part of the strategy.”
He declined to discuss any specifics on strategy but disagreed that the abortion ruling fundamentally changed Arizona’s dynamics.
“Is abortion an issue that the campaign has to deal with in the battleground states — and more specifically in Arizona? Absolutely. We feel that we are doing that and we are exceeding what we need to do,” LaCivita said, even as he suggested other issues would be more salient for most Arizona voters this fall.
“The election is going to be determined really in large part based on the key issues that the vast majority of Arizonans have to deal with every single day, and that’s, ‘Can I afford to put food on the table and feed my family and get in the car to go to work?’” he said.
Democrats are quick to note that they have won virtually every major election in which abortion was on the ballot since the June 2022 reversal of Roe v. Wade.
The Biden campaign on Thursday launched a statewide abortion-related advertising campaign that it said would reach seven figures, although ad tracking firms had yet to confirm the new investment. The new ads come in addition to a $30 million nationwide advertising blitz that was already underway, according to Biden campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz.
In the new ad, Biden links Arizona’s abortion restrictions directly to Trump.
“Your body and your decisions belong to you, not the government, not Donald Trump,” Biden says. “I will fight like hell to get your freedom back.”
Beyond the ad campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled to appear in Arizona on Friday to highlight the Democrats’ dedication to preserving abortion rights.
Even without this week’s abortion ruling, Democrats were already betting big on Arizona this fall.
Biden’s team is on track to spend more than $22 million on Arizona advertising between April 1 and Election Day, according to data collected by the ad tracking firm AdImpact. That’s millions more than other swing states like Wisconsin, Georgia and Nevada. Only Pennsylvania and Michigan are seeing more Democratic advertising dollars.
Trump’s team, meanwhile, isn’t spending anything on Arizona advertising this month and hasn’t yet reserved any general election advertising in the state, according to AdImpact.
Yet Trump remains bullish on the state, which had backed a Republican presidential candidate in every election since 1996 before it narrowly supported Biden in 2020. They point to a modest shift among Hispanic voters, a core group in the Democratic coalition, which may be more open to Trump.
Meanwhile, Arizona Republicans are still bogged down by GOP infighting in a state where the party apparatus built and nurtured by the late Sen. John McCain has been usurped by Trump’s “Make America Great Again” loyalists.
The division came to a head in the 2022 primary for governor, when Trump and his allies lined up enthusiastically behind Kari Lake, while traditional conservatives and the business establishment backed her rival.
Lake won the primary. Rather than mend fences with the vanquished establishment, she gloated that she “drove a stake through the heart of the McCain machine.” She’s since made a more concerted effort behind the scenes to win over her GOP critics, with mixed results.
Lake, a major MAGA figure sometimes discussed as a potential Trump running mate, is now running in the state’s high-profile Senate race.
Like Trump, she has come out against the latest abortion ruling, arguing it is too restrictive. But two years ago, Lake called the abortion ban “a great law,” said she was “incredibly thrilled” that it was on the books and predicted it would be “setting the course for other states to follow.”
The ruling played straight into the hands of Gallego, her Democratic rival, who had already put abortion rights at the center of his pitch to Arizona voters.
“I think we were on our way to winning this,” he said in an interview. “I think what it does is it focuses people’s attention on abortion rights that maybe weren’t thinking about it as the most important thing or one of the top issues.”
Meanwhile, Anzalone, the Biden pollster, warned his party against overconfidence.
“It’s not going to be easy. These are all close races. I’m not getting ahead of myself in any way,” he said of the fight for Arizona this fall. “But we like the advantage we have there.”
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Arizona tackling heat mitigation, could their efforts translate to Nevada
LAS VEGAS (KSNV) — Reno and Las Vegas are the two fastest-warming cities in the entire country.
Tonight we take a look at what neighboring Arizona is doing to address similar heat challenges, and whether those steps can work in Nevada.
Las Vegas has several areas called urban heat islands, which are hotter than the surrounding areas because of less vegetation, such as trees, and more concrete development.
Residents in East Las Vegas, one of the areas considered an urban heat island, say they’re not surprised that temperatures continue to rise, especially in their part of town.
“Definitely, when you go more to outskirts, there’s definitely more shade, more trees everywhere, but more in the center of town it’s very much less,” said Anthony Flores.
He believes there could be more relief from the heat.
“More water accessibility, more shade overall,” said Flores, whose line of work causes him to be outside every day. “I usually drink over two gallons of water a day just to keep not getting heat stroke.”
Charlie Ponce agrees with him.
“Definitely more trees that are useful, not like palm trees or anything like that. Parks that have like the water parks in them,” said Ponce. “Yeah, splash pads.”
Valley cities and Clark County have implemented steps like having cooling stations and tree-planting campaigns to help address heat challenges.
Phoenix and other parts of Arizona are also experiencing extreme heat every summer, as well as drought issues.
UNLV Public Policy Professor Dr. Ben Leffel says there are steps in the neighboring state that can be useful here in Nevada, where temperatures historically continue to be on the rise.
“For example, Phoenix has an ordinance that says that tenants must have rooms that are coolable to at least 86 degrees Fahrenheit,” said Dr. Leffel. “And that’s then also that first responders are equipped with chilled IV therapy and cold water immersion and things like that.”
News 3 spoke with heat mitigation and management experts in Arizona to see what they believe has been working for them.
One thing they mentioned was that Arizona has the first state-level chief heat officer.
“We have much better and much more accurate numbers now about who’s actually getting sick and who’s dying from heat-related deaths, and what the causes and kind of contributing factors are. So, if you don’t track something, you can’t understand what’s going on with it,” said Dr. Ladd Keith, Heat Resilience Initiative Director at the University of Arizona.
Ponce thinks it would help in Las Vegas.
“Like, let them know to tell the public like, hey, in these areas it’s getting out of hand, and this is what we can do as a community, or just have someone like regulated or watch over it,” she said.
And the city of Phoenix also has an entire heat office, something that can be beneficial on a local level, like being able to coordinate between different groups like homeless outreach, the hospitals, etcetera.
“Statewide coordination of cooling centers, lessons learned that are shared across different working groups, and so just a lot of cooperation that really creates a lot of efficiency too, and so I think that’s an important thing to note, is there is a cost to this, but the efforts are saving lives, and I think it’s making government more efficient,” said Keith.
Amy Scoville-Weaver, the Healthy Cities Program Director in Arizona for The Nature Conservancy, says the Phoenix Metro has done well with increasing vegetation, including in areas where there’s drought.
“So we’re looking at supporting and planting hardy trees, drought-tolerant trees, trees that are already designed, designed to live and thrive in water-scarce environments,” said Scoville-Weaver.
She says they also look at improving infrastructure to support it.
“So when it does rain, the water doesn’t just go down asphalt, get polluted, and go through a storm drain; rather, that water is being diverted to vegetation that needs it,” said Scoville-Weaver.
Leffel says another thing to keep in mind is heat safety can also come from indoor policies.
“For example, Phoenix has an ordinance that says that tenants must have rooms that are coolable to at least 86 degrees Fahrenheit,” he said.
A new Nevada law that went into effect last week requires larger jurisdictions to come up with heat mitigation plans.
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