Joyful New Yr’s Eve to everybody, hopefully we’ll have an matchup for you at present as Florida State seems to be to upset the Duke Blue Devils in Cameron Indoor Stadium. We’ll get to it later, however I truly suppose FSU matches up properly with this iteration of the Blue Devils within the first 12 months with new head coach Jon Scheyer.

This recreation will likely be at 1pm on ESPN2, stay from Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC. 

#17 Duke Blue Devils Breakdown

As talked about above, Duke has no extra Coach Ok roaming the sidelines and as a substitute has Jon Scheyer on the helm, who has achieved an outstanding job recruiting and continues to be figuring the X’s and O’s out. This workforce is absurdly proficient with 5 former 5-stars and three former 4-stars, simply a humiliation of riches. It is taken a while for this workforce to come back collectively, although, as 75% of the roster hadn’t performed for Duke earlier than this season and the chemistry hasn’t fairly been there but. 

What has been working properly is the offensive rebounding, as this is among the greatest groups within the nation on the offensive glass, grabbing 38.9% of all of their misses. In two of their three losses, they have been held under 30% on the glass which needs to be a key for an FSU workforce that’s permitting groups to seize 34.7% of their misses. Matthew Cleveland, Cameron Corhen, Naheem McLeod (if he performs), and all the guards should be lively boxing individuals out and contending for the rebound. Duke has 4 rotation gamers averaging a minimum of one offensive rebound per recreation: Kyle Filipowski (2.8 ORBs per recreation), Ryan Younger (3.2), Mark Mitchell (1.1), and Dereck Full of life II (1.7). Dariq Whitehead has excessive rebound potential as properly given his athleticism. They seem to be a very bodily and athletic workforce that’s making up for not being an ideal 3-point taking pictures workforce at simply 31.5%, although they do not take a ton of 3s to start with. 

Kyle Filipowski has been superior for this workforce at 14.4 PPG and eight.9 RPG whereas taking pictures 41.8% from the ground. He is in a position to stretch out to three sometimes, however he does his greatest work contained in the arc, and is a beast on the glass. Him locking down the 5 place shouldn’t be one thing I anticipated given Dereck Full of life’s recruitment (extra on him later). His mobility goes to be a giant check for FSU’s put up gamers, and I am curious to see how FSU defends him. 

Jeremy Roach is the one different Blue Satan averaging double-figure scoring at 12.8 PPG and three.4 APG. He is taking much more pictures than his first two seasons in Durham, however his effectivity has dipped a little bit, which needs to be a little bit little bit of a disappointment. He simply has so much on confidence and is aware of what to do, one thing that’s vital with this many newcomers. 

Mark Mitchell is by far the most effective 3-point shooter on this workforce in share at 45.8%, however takes lower than two 3s per recreation. I am anticipating FSU to try to pressure Duke to shoot extra from the surface, going underneath on ball screens, stuff like that. Mitchell is only a well-rounded participant that may perform a little little bit of every thing. 

Tyrese Proctor has actually struggled taking pictures the ball this season at simply 34.7% from the sector and 23.5% from 3. He has all of the instruments essential to be a superb participant, however simply hasn’t occurred but in his younger profession. 

Dariq Whitehead and Dereck Full of life II have not lived as much as expectations in any respect to this point, as they entered in as two of the top-3 gamers within the 2022 class. Whitehead had a foot harm that stored him out for the preseason and the primary few common season video games and he nonetheless hasn’t gotten on top of things. He is an elite stage athlete who can simply fly across the court docket, however nonetheless must get used to enjoying at this stage. Full of life… I don’t know what’s occurring. It could be that there is not sufficient spacing within the offense for him to function down low, however that is no excuse for him to only common 4.4 PPG and three.7 RPG. He merely needs to be higher within the minutes he is given.

Ryan Younger is an amazing offensive rebounder and paint demon, knocking down a ridiculous 16.9% of obtainable offense rebounds, top-15 throughout all gamers within the nation. Jacob Grandison and Jaylen Blakes are stable off then bench shooters, each hovering round 37% on a mixed 5 makes an attempt per recreation. 

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

FSU had a stable win earlier than the Christmas break, beating Notre Dame on Dec 21 with a detailed 73-72 recreation. There was some to be desired so far as defending the three, however we noticed nice video games from Matthew Cleveland, Caleb Mills, and Cameron Corhen. Cleveland particularly has been stellar the final 6 video games, actually selecting up for the best way he began the season and the lack of Cam’Ron Fletcher to a knee harm. As Jon Rothstein stated, he is enjoying in the best way somebody who is aware of he wants to hold the workforce is enjoying. For the reason that Purdue recreation, he is been averaging 16.8 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.0 SPG all whereas taking pictures 50.6/53.8/76.2. That is a tremendous stat-line, and the attention check is backing it up. 

Duke has gained 6 straight on this matchup at dwelling, and 6 of the final 7 total. The sport in Cameron Indoor final season was a blowout towards a short-handed Seminoles workforce, however we noticed the most effective recreation of Jalen Warley’s younger profession, as he confirmed aggressiveness, relentlessness, and simply an all-around nice recreation. He’ll be enjoying towards his former highschool teammate in Dereck Full of life II and I think about he’ll need to present out once more. 

The veterans have traditionally had a giant recreation in Cameron Indoor, whether or not it is Braian Angola and Phil Cofer in 2017, Trent Forrest and his 8 steal recreation in 2020, or famously Michael Snaer in 2012. The veterans often present up as a result of they perceive the second, so I am taking a look at Darin Inexperienced Jr to have a giant recreation on this one, particularly given he form of underwhelmed towards Notre Dame. 

Harm Report

Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL harm. 

Cam’Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee harm. 

Baba Miller is suspended for only a few extra video games by the NCAA. 

Naheem McLeod didn’t play towards Notre Dame on the twenty first for some unknown cause. His standing is up within the air at present. 

For Duke, each Dariq Whitehead and Dereck Full of life II missed the sport towards Wake Forest for non COVID sicknesses, however they have been training this week. I’d think about they play on this one. 

Projected Starters

Duke

G: Jeremy Roach

G: Tyrese Proctor

F: Ryan Younger

F: Mark Mitchell

F: Kyle Filipowski

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Caleb Mills

G: Darin Inexperienced Jr

F: Matthew Cleveland

C: Cameron Corhen

Keys to the Recreation

Put up Protection 

Duke has two actually good forwards in Kyle Filipowski and Dereck Full of life II, and will give Matthew Cleveland (or each time switches onto them) some points within the put up. They’ve the power to stretch the ground, however with FSU’s lack of massive males (which could possibly be exacerbated if McLeod continues to not play), their plan ought to be to proceed pounding it down low and let the massive males work out. It’s a workforce that actually struggles from 3, as Mark Mitchell is the one sharpshooter at 43% from 3. They’ve a few the fellows within the 36/37% vary, everybody else is 32% or under. Duke ought to actually be planning on giving the bigs as a lot alternative as doable. 

The largest factor is on the finish of defensive possessions, Florida State has to complete the possession with a rebound. Duke is a PHENOMENAL offensive rebounding workforce and letting them get second probability factors shouldn’t be what you need. 

Transition Alternatives

The one factor you can’t do in Cameron Indoor is allow them to get a thunderous dunk in breakaway probabilities. The place goes completely bananas. It’s worthwhile to maintain the gang out of it as a lot as doable, so no transition dunks, no huge runs with again to again 3s… The extra you restrict these runs the higher. On the flip aspect, FSU’s offense has to get out in transition as a lot as doable. The much less you’re compelled to play within the half court docket, the higher. 

Darin Inexperienced Jr and Jalen Warley

Darin Inexperienced is coming off of certainly one of his worst video games of the season, taking pictures simply 3/11 for 8 factors towards Notre Dame. Veterans traditionally do properly for FSU at Duke, and he’s probably the most veteran participant on this roster, and I think about he desires to make up for the final recreation. On the flip aspect, Jalen Warley’s greatest recreation as a freshman got here at Duke final 12 months, and it’ll be fascinating to see if he assaults with the identical relentlessness he did final 12 months. FSU goes to wish him to have a giant recreation. 

Recreation Prediction

Duke is favored by a whopping 17 factors with an over/underneath of 143.5. Duke ought to win, however I feel FSU will put up a struggle and maintain this in single digits many of the manner.

Duke 81 FSU 70