Sports
Projecting final 4 NFL playoff teams’ odds to win Super Bowl, with conference title game analysis
The road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City. After dispatching the Houston Texans, the Chiefs will play in the AFC Championship Game for a seventh straight year. They’re now just two wins away from the greatest achievement in the Super Bowl era: a three-peat. Standing in their way are the Buffalo Bills, who defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night and now have a chance to dethrone the reigning two-time champions.
In the NFC, the Commanders shocked the world by upsetting the Detroit Lions on Saturday night and will try to repeat the feat next weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, who took down the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.
Jeff Howe breaks down the conference championship game matchups before The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each remaining team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 playoffs)
The powers of the AFC wouldn’t budge this season, as the Chiefs and Bills will meet on the AFC Championship Game stage for the second time in four years.
The Bills finalized the showdown Sunday evening with a thrilling 27-25 victory against the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Josh Allen outdueled fellow MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, as the Bills star finished 16-of-22 for 127 yards with a couple of rushing scores to help ward off Baltimore’s comeback bid.
The Chiefs were somewhat shaky in their postseason debut, but they knocked off the Texans by a decisive 23-14 margin despite the visitors outpacing them in yards, time of possession, first downs and third-down conversions. That’s because the defense (eight sacks, 14 QB hits) and special teams still carry plenty of weight, and the Chiefs are the most well-balanced team in the field.
The Chiefs, as we mentioned earlier, are on a quest to become the first team in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. They’ve hoisted the Lombardi Trophy three times since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes aligned.
It hasn’t been an explosive season for Mahomes, who has more games with fewer than 200 passing yards (five) than over 300 yards (three), including the divisional round. But he hasn’t been making mistakes, accounting for 13 touchdowns (one rushing) since his last interception two months ago.
Mahomes also has 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions (both in a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals) in six AFC Championship Games. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t committed a single turnover over their past eight games. That’ll be a focal point against the Bills, who notched three takeaways Sunday against the Ravens and have forced multiple turnovers in 11 of 19 games this season.
Mahomes hasn’t gotten a lot of help. His offensive tackles have been poor — at least when left guard Joe Thuney isn’t moonlighting at left tackle — and his skill players have been in and out of the lineup with injuries.
But he still has Travis Kelce, who just ripped off the ninth 100-yard game of his playoff career. The 35-year-old future Pro Football Hall of Famer’s production dipped considerably during the regular season, but Kelce is as clutch as ever in the playoffs. He’s had at least 70 yards in 14 consecutive postseason games — averaging 99.1 yards per outing over that stretch. He also has led the league in receiving touchdowns in four of the past five postseasons.
And yet, the NFL’s modern-day dynasty will be tasked with one question all week: Can they stop Allen?
Allen completed 63.6 percent of his passes during the regular season for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions, and he added 531 rushing yards and a dozen scores.
Allen was 27-of-40 for 262 yards, one touchdown and one interception when the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. He added 55 rushing yards, including a 26-yard touchdown on a pivotal fourth-and-2. That was the Chiefs’ only loss this season with Mahomes as the starter, and it might have been the performance that launched Allen’s MVP campaign.
The Chiefs are 6-3 in the AFC Championship during the Super Bowl era, including 4-2 with Mahomes, while the Bills are 4-3. The Chiefs are 4-2 in the playoffs against the Bills, including three consecutive wins over the previous four years.
• Chiefs’ chances to win Super Bowl: 30.1%
• Bills’ chances to win Super Bowl: 25.5%
Chances to win the Super Bowl
|
Team
|
Odds
|
|---|---|
|
33.5% |
|
|
30.1% |
|
|
25.5% |
|
|
11% |
NFC
No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 playoffs) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)
The NFC North wore the crown all season, but the NFC East is chasing the ring.
The Eagles and Commanders meet in the NFC Championship Game after splitting the regular-season series, with the Commanders claiming a 36-33 home victory in their most recent meeting in Week 16. The Eagles needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Commanders 26-18 in Week 11, so both games were close.
The Eagles may want an asterisk for their loss, as quarterback Jalen Hurts was knocked out early with a concussion, but their 33 points was the sixth-highest output of the season behind a strong Kenny Pickett performance. The far more important story was that the Eagles couldn’t win despite a 5-2 advantage in the turnover battle.
So what happens if the Eagles can’t drum up enough takeaways in the third installment? Maybe that’s also a moot point, as they had a narrow 1-0 edge in takeaways in the earlier win. It’s a rare occasion when turnovers haven’t made the difference in either outcome.
Still, the Commanders won’t want to test that theory any further. The Eagles have forced 30 turnovers in their last 13 games, including a couple of forced fumbles during a pivotal second-half stretch as they eliminated the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the divisional round.
GO DEEPER
The Commanders are a win away from the Super Bowl. Let that marinate for a bit
Daniels has had the Commanders’ offense playing at an elite level during their pair of road victories in the playoffs. They’ve scored on 11 of 16 possessions, excluding sequences to close out halves, and have punted just a single time. They’ve turned it over on downs three times — a risk-reward formula that’s been a net positive — but don’t have any interceptions or lost fumbles. They also have a missed field goal.
Daniels’ command in all situations has been remarkable. While the rookie possesses a clutch gene that’s come in handy during their game-winning drives this season, Daniels did an impressive job Saturday night of keeping the pressure on the top-seeded Lions, leading the Commanders to scores on four of their five possessions following a Detroit score. The exception was a missed field goal, so Daniels continuously kept the ball moving when the Lions were attempting to make a run.
Daniels will need to be great to get the Commanders to their first Super Bowl in 33 years, and the evidence suggests he’ll rise to that challenge. He passed for 1,522 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions during their seven-game winning streak, and he added 422 yards and a score on the ground. However, three of Daniels’ nine interceptions this season have come against the Eagles.
Hurts and the Eagles passing attack has been pedestrian since his return from a concussion. He had 259 passing yards and two touchdowns in the two playoff wins, although he had 106 yards and a score as a rusher. Wide receivers A.J. Brown (three catches for 24 yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight catches for 76 yards) haven’t made much of an impact as a result.
But fear not, as the Eagles still have running back Saquon Barkley. The best offseason addition in the league had 324 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two playoff games, as he hasn’t slowed down since his torrid regular season.
These teams have one postseason meeting, with Washington taking their wild-card matchup on Jan. 5, 1991. The Commanders are 90-86-6 in the all-time series.
The Commanders are 5-1 in conference championships during the Super Bowl era, while the Eagles are 4-4.
• Eagles’ chances to win Super Bowl: 33.5%
• Commanders’ chances to win Super Bowl: 11%
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Ryan Kang / Getty Images)
Sports
Messi, Argentina avoid a shocking upset in wild knockout stage match against Cape Verde
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On Friday, Argentina looked to continue its quest for back-to-back World Cup titles, and to do it, they had to get through one of the darlings of this year’s tournament, Cape Verde.
The small island nation off the coast of West Africa came into the match as the No. 64-ranked team in the world, and they managed to hold Argentina — the No. 2 team behind France at the moment — scoreless for almost thirty minutes.
But in the 29th minute, Lionel Messi scored to give Argentina the lead.
WATCH THE WORLD CUP FINAL ON FOX ONE
That was the 20th World Cup goal of his career, and it also made him the first player to score seven or more goals in multiple World Cups, having done it in Qatar as well.
It was also Messi’s eighth-straight World Cup match with a goal.
Argentina’s Lionel Messi scored in his eight-straight World Cup match and potted the 20th World Cup goal of his career. (Photo by Pablo Morano/BSR Agency/Getty Images))
Well, typically when Argentina takes the lead, they don’t cough it up, but early in the second half, Cape Verde’s Deroy Duarte pulled off a stunner and tied the game at 1-1.
HARRY KANE RESCUES ENGLAND FROM SHOCK WORLD CUP EXIT WITH TWO GOALS IN 11 MINUTES AGAINST DR CONGO
While there was some late pressure from Argentina, that included an always-dangerous Messi free kick from just outside the box that Cape Verde managed to stop.
And with that, it was off to extra time.
Cape Verde celebrates after scoring one of their two tying goals against Argentina. (Photo by Pablo Morano/BSR Agency/Getty Images)
However, it only took moments for Cape Verde to find themselves once again battling from behind.
Lisandro Martinez found the twine in the 92nd minute to give Argentina the lead.
It looked like that would be all she wrote… but Cape Verde had other plans.
They stuck with the defending World Cup champs, and in the 103rd minute, Sidny Lopes Cabral scored an unbelievable goal to tie the game again.
Coming into this game, Argentina had given up just two goals in their ten-match World Cup winning streak.
Cape Verde did that in one match.
Argentina’s Cristian Romero gets his head on what proved ot be the game-winning goal. (Sam Navarro-Imagn Images)
But in the 111th minute, Messi took an Argentina corner kick and put it in the perfect spot for Cristian Romero to head it to the back post and into the back of the net.
This was eventually updated to an own-goal, as it went off the Cape Verde defender’s arm, but it counts the same on the scoreboard.
Despite a late flurry of chances, Argentina held on to avoid what would have been potentially the biggest upset in World Cup history.
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What a match, and what a run Cape Verde had in the tournament.
Argentina will now have to recompose and get ready for a tough Round of 16 match against Egypt, which will take place on Tuesday in Atlanta.
Sports
Folarin Balogun urges U.S. to focus on beating Belgium despite red card he calls unjust
Like a good striker, Folarin Balogun never loses sight of the goal. And the goal for the U.S. team in this summer’s World Cup hasn’t been just to win, which they’ve done, but to inspire.
And that’s how Balogun found himself on the field, shaking hands with Brazilian referee Raphael Claus, about 45 minutes after Claus gave him a controversial red card in Wednesday’s win over Bosnia-Herzegovina, a red card that will keep him out of Monday’s round-of-16 game with Belgium.
“Little kids are watching, and we have to show them the correct way to handle things, even when you think it’s unjust,” Balogun said Friday.
“It’s not an excuse to be disrespectful, to not do the right thing. I’m aware that the World Cup might be the first time a lot of American viewers are tuning in. So it’s important, whether things happen to you good or bad, just to continue to be yourself.”
That doesn’t mean Balogun didn’t think the red card was unjust. He does. And he definitely thinks something bad happened to him and his team since Balogun, the Americans’ leading scorer with three goals in as many games, will have to sit out the team’s most important game in a generation.
It’s just means that Balogun, who celebrated his 25th birthday Friday, is also mature enough to understand a game — even a World Cup elimination game — is just a game.
“It’s been a roller coaster,” he said before the team’s training session at the University of Washington. “There’s been lots of different emotions. I’ve been upset, I’ve been happy. But for me, it was just important to stay calm. I never want to react out of anger and out of emotion.”
Balogun, who had given his team a 1-0 lead in the waning seconds of the first half, collided with Tarik Muharemovic 16 minutes into the second half, and when the Bosnian defender planted his right leg below Balogun’s right foot, the American inadvertently stomped on his right ankle, twisting it awkwardly.
U.S. forward Folarin Balogun steps on Bosnia-Herzegovina defender Tarik Muharemovic’s foot and received a red card.
(Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times)
Both players went down and Claus did not signal a foul or pull card. But after the video assistant referee urged him to watch a replay, Claus walked away from the monitor and flashed the red card. That left the U.S. to finish Wednesday’s game with just 10 men and disqualified Balogun for Monday’s game. U.S. Soccer said Friday FIFA’s disciplinary committee did not add any games to Balogun’s suspension.
“There’s the scenarios that you simply can’t avoid,” he said, “and it has to be taken into context when it’s being reviewed. I felt it wasn’t on this occasion. There’s nowhere else to put your leg. It’s going to be unavoidable.
“I think a yellow card would have been fair. [But] it’s something that’s happened, so we have to move forward, and I have to accept it. The most important thing is just to focus on the bigger picture, which is Belgium.”
Replacing Balogun won’t be easy since he’s emerged as one of the team’s most effective and creative players, either scoring of setting up the go-ahead goal in all three of the U.S. wins.
“We’ve got guys that can fill in and have to be ready for the opportunity to step up,” midfielder Tyler Adams said. “When you miss a player like Balo, obviously things change a little bit. But we’ve been flexible. Guys have shown that they’re ready to play.”
The most likely replacements are Ricardo Pepi and Haji Wright. Pepi, who scored 16 goals for PSV in the Dutch Eredivisie this season, played 90 minutes in place of Balogun in the U.S. loss to Turkey in the final group-stage match. Wright, who had 17 goals for Coventry City in the English Championship, played in all four U.S. games in the 2022 World Cup, scoring once, but he has made just one appearance in this summer’s tournament.
“Balo is an important part of our team, and it’s a disappointing way for him to miss the next game,” said Wright, who grew up in Culver City and spent three years in the Galaxy academy. “But, I’ll always be ready and prepared for whatever comes.”
A victory over Belgium would send the U.S. to the quarterfinals of a World Cup for just the second time. It would also give it four wins in the tournament, double the number of victories in any previous World Cup and marking the first time the Americans have won twice in the knockout stages in the same tournament.
U.S. forward Ricardo Pepi pursues the ball during a World Cup match against Bosnia-Herzegovina at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara , Calif., on Wednesday.
(Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times)
It’s a moment, Adams acknowledged Friday, many players have waited for their whole lives.
“You need to embrace the moment, that’s for sure,” he said. “To have the opportunity to play in a round-of-16 game — which, obviously, last World Cup we did, but it was the first knockout game, not the second — it’s exciting. It was nice to get a little bit of a taste of what it feels like to play with something a little bit more on the line in the last game. I think that’s good preparation.
“Advancing and taking this thing as far as we can is the most important thing. We have a good opportunity here to do so.”
Sports
Knicks champion says he hopes ‘truth comes out’ after leaving team for Eastern Conference rival
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The New York Knicks’ first championship team in 53 years is now starting to look a little bit different.
They were able to hang on to Jose Alvarado, but the first domino to fall was defensive big man Mitchell Robinson, who signed a three-year deal with the Boston Celtics.
Several of Robinson’s now-former teammates, including Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart and OG Anunoby, commented on his farewell post on Instagram, but Robinson’s response to Anunoby was rather telling.
Mitchell Robinson is seen outside City Hall at the New York Knicks ticker-tape parade on June 18, 2026 in New York City. (XNY/Star Max/GC Images)
Anunoby commented with a sad emoji, and Robinson said he “tried” to get back with the Knicks, hinting the feeling was not mutual.
“I tried brother I didn’t want this to happen hopefully the truth comes out at some point. I’m gonna miss you big dawg! Keep being great,” Robinson replied.
Team owner James Dolan said almost immediately after the Knicks won the title that he had no interest in going into the NBA’s second apron of payroll, calling it “suicidal.”
Mitchell Robinson of the New York Knicks celebrates after winning the NBA Finals against the San Antonio Spurs during Game 5 of the 2026 NBA Finals on June 13, 2026 at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. (Jesse D. Garrabrant /NBAE via Getty Images)
KNICKS OWNER APPEARS TO TAKE SWIPE AT MAMDANI AT NBA CHAMPIONSHIP CELEBRATION, STIFFS PHOTO OP WITH HIM
That alone was enough to tell fans that a roster reconstruction was en route, especially with Brunson eventually set to make up for the massive pay cut he took to help the Knicks win it all.
Robinson grabbed the final offensive rebound off a missed free throw that all but clinched the Knicks’ title against the San Antonio Spurs last month.
Robinson saw both the good and the bad with the Knicks as a second-round draft pick in 2018; in his first season, they were 17-65.
Mitchell Robinson of the New York Knicks talks to the media after the game against the San Antonio Spurs during Game 5 of the 2026 NBA Finals on June 13, 2026 at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. (Jacob Gonzalez/NBAE via Getty Images)
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But now, he will head to an apparent re-tooling Celtics team as a champion.
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