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Projecting final 4 NFL playoff teams’ odds to win Super Bowl, with conference title game analysis

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Projecting final 4 NFL playoff teams’ odds to win Super Bowl, with conference title game analysis

The road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City. After dispatching the Houston Texans, the Chiefs will play in the AFC Championship Game for a seventh straight year. They’re now just two wins away from the greatest achievement in the Super Bowl era: a three-peat. Standing in their way are the Buffalo Bills, who defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night and now have a chance to dethrone the reigning two-time champions.

In the NFC, the Commanders shocked the world by upsetting the Detroit Lions on Saturday night and will try to repeat the feat next weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, who took down the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

Jeff Howe breaks down the conference championship game matchups before The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each remaining team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.

AFC

No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 playoffs)

The powers of the AFC wouldn’t budge this season, as the Chiefs and Bills will meet on the AFC Championship Game stage for the second time in four years.

The Bills finalized the showdown Sunday evening with a thrilling 27-25 victory against the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Josh Allen outdueled fellow MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, as the Bills star finished 16-of-22 for 127 yards with a couple of rushing scores to help ward off Baltimore’s comeback bid.

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The Chiefs were somewhat shaky in their postseason debut, but they knocked off the Texans by a decisive 23-14 margin despite the visitors outpacing them in yards, time of possession, first downs and third-down conversions. That’s because the defense (eight sacks, 14 QB hits) and special teams still carry plenty of weight, and the Chiefs are the most well-balanced team in the field.

The Chiefs, as we mentioned earlier, are on a quest to become the first team in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. They’ve hoisted the Lombardi Trophy three times since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes aligned.

It hasn’t been an explosive season for Mahomes, who has more games with fewer than 200 passing yards (five) than over 300 yards (three), including the divisional round. But he hasn’t been making mistakes, accounting for 13 touchdowns (one rushing) since his last interception two months ago.

Mahomes also has 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions (both in a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals) in six AFC Championship Games. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t committed a single turnover over their past eight games. That’ll be a focal point against the Bills, who notched three takeaways Sunday against the Ravens and have forced multiple turnovers in 11 of 19 games this season.

Mahomes hasn’t gotten a lot of help. His offensive tackles have been poor — at least when left guard Joe Thuney isn’t moonlighting at left tackle — and his skill players have been in and out of the lineup with injuries.

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But he still has Travis Kelce, who just ripped off the ninth 100-yard game of his playoff career. The 35-year-old future Pro Football Hall of Famer’s production dipped considerably during the regular season, but Kelce is as clutch as ever in the playoffs. He’s had at least 70 yards in 14 consecutive postseason games — averaging 99.1 yards per outing over that stretch. He also has led the league in receiving touchdowns in four of the past five postseasons.

And yet, the NFL’s modern-day dynasty will be tasked with one question all week: Can they stop Allen?

Allen completed 63.6 percent of his passes during the regular season for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions, and he added 531 rushing yards and a dozen scores.

Allen was 27-of-40 for 262 yards, one touchdown and one interception when the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. He added 55 rushing yards, including a 26-yard touchdown on a pivotal fourth-and-2. That was the Chiefs’ only loss this season with Mahomes as the starter, and it might have been the performance that launched Allen’s MVP campaign.

The Chiefs are 6-3 in the AFC Championship during the Super Bowl era, including 4-2 with Mahomes, while the Bills are 4-3. The Chiefs are 4-2 in the playoffs against the Bills, including three consecutive wins over the previous four years.

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• Chiefs’ chances to win Super Bowl: 30.1%
Bills’ chances to win Super Bowl: 25.5%

Chances to win the Super Bowl

Team

  

Odds

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33.5%

30.1%

25.5%

11%

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NFC

No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 playoffs) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)

The NFC North wore the crown all season, but the NFC East is chasing the ring.

The Eagles and Commanders meet in the NFC Championship Game after splitting the regular-season series, with the Commanders claiming a 36-33 home victory in their most recent meeting in Week 16. The Eagles needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Commanders 26-18 in Week 11, so both games were close.

The Eagles may want an asterisk for their loss, as quarterback Jalen Hurts was knocked out early with a concussion, but their 33 points was the sixth-highest output of the season behind a strong Kenny Pickett performance. The far more important story was that the Eagles couldn’t win despite a 5-2 advantage in the turnover battle.

So what happens if the Eagles can’t drum up enough takeaways in the third installment? Maybe that’s also a moot point, as they had a narrow 1-0 edge in takeaways in the earlier win. It’s a rare occasion when turnovers haven’t made the difference in either outcome.

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Still, the Commanders won’t want to test that theory any further. The Eagles have forced 30 turnovers in their last 13 games, including a couple of forced fumbles during a pivotal second-half stretch as they eliminated the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the divisional round.

GO DEEPER

The Commanders are a win away from the Super Bowl. Let that marinate for a bit

Daniels has had the Commanders’ offense playing at an elite level during their pair of road victories in the playoffs. They’ve scored on 11 of 16 possessions, excluding sequences to close out halves, and have punted just a single time. They’ve turned it over on downs three times — a risk-reward formula that’s been a net positive — but don’t have any interceptions or lost fumbles. They also have a missed field goal.

Daniels’ command in all situations has been remarkable. While the rookie possesses a clutch gene that’s come in handy during their game-winning drives this season, Daniels did an impressive job Saturday night of keeping the pressure on the top-seeded Lions, leading the Commanders to scores on four of their five possessions following a Detroit score. The exception was a missed field goal, so Daniels continuously kept the ball moving when the Lions were attempting to make a run.

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Daniels will need to be great to get the Commanders to their first Super Bowl in 33 years, and the evidence suggests he’ll rise to that challenge. He passed for 1,522 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions during their seven-game winning streak, and he added 422 yards and a score on the ground. However, three of Daniels’ nine interceptions this season have come against the Eagles.

Hurts and the Eagles passing attack has been pedestrian since his return from a concussion. He had 259 passing yards and two touchdowns in the two playoff wins, although he had 106 yards and a score as a rusher. Wide receivers A.J. Brown (three catches for 24 yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight catches for 76 yards) haven’t made much of an impact as a result.

But fear not, as the Eagles still have running back Saquon Barkley. The best offseason addition in the league had 324 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two playoff games, as he hasn’t slowed down since his torrid regular season.

These teams have one postseason meeting, with Washington taking their wild-card matchup on Jan. 5, 1991. The Commanders are 90-86-6 in the all-time series.

The Commanders are 5-1 in conference championships during the Super Bowl era, while the Eagles are 4-4.

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• Eagles’ chances to win Super Bowl: 33.5%
Commanders’ chances to win Super Bowl: 11%

(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Ryan Kang / Getty Images)

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Knicks champion says he hopes ‘truth comes out’ after leaving team for Eastern Conference rival

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Knicks champion says he hopes ‘truth comes out’ after leaving team for Eastern Conference rival

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The New York Knicks’ first championship team in 53 years is now starting to look a little bit different.

They were able to hang on to Jose Alvarado, but the first domino to fall was defensive big man Mitchell Robinson, who signed a three-year deal with the Boston Celtics.

Several of Robinson’s now-former teammates, including Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart and OG Anunoby, commented on his farewell post on Instagram, but Robinson’s response to Anunoby was rather telling.

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Mitchell Robinson is seen outside City Hall at the New York Knicks ticker-tape parade on June 18, 2026 in New York City. (XNY/Star Max/GC Images)

Anunoby commented with a sad emoji, and Robinson said he “tried” to get back with the Knicks, hinting the feeling was not mutual.

“I tried brother I didn’t want this to happen hopefully the truth comes out at some point. I’m gonna miss you big dawg! Keep being great,” Robinson replied.

Team owner James Dolan said almost immediately after the Knicks won the title that he had no interest in going into the NBA’s second apron of payroll, calling it “suicidal.”

Mitchell Robinson of the New York Knicks celebrates after winning the NBA Finals against the San Antonio Spurs during Game 5 of the 2026 NBA Finals on June 13, 2026 at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. (Jesse D. Garrabrant /NBAE via Getty Images)

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That alone was enough to tell fans that a roster reconstruction was en route, especially with Brunson eventually set to make up for the massive pay cut he took to help the Knicks win it all.

Robinson grabbed the final offensive rebound off a missed free throw that all but clinched the Knicks’ title against the San Antonio Spurs last month.

Robinson saw both the good and the bad with the Knicks as a second-round draft pick in 2018; in his first season, they were 17-65.

Mitchell Robinson of the New York Knicks talks to the media after the game against the San Antonio Spurs during Game 5 of the 2026 NBA Finals on June 13, 2026 at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. (Jacob Gonzalez/NBAE via Getty Images)

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But now, he will head to an apparent re-tooling Celtics team as a champion.

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How Dodgers’ Max Muncy, vying for his third All-Star selection, continues to evolve

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How Dodgers’ Max Muncy, vying for his third All-Star selection, continues to evolve

As Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy moved fluidly through a chopper at the edge of Camelback Ranch’s infield grass and made a running throw to first, his offseason work started to snap into place.

He wasn’t thinking about the angle he took to the ball, or how to get into the right position to throw — or anything, really. He was just moving instinctively.

“That’s how I like to field it in my work, is not necessarily traditionally,” Muncy told The Times on Thursday. “I like to field it one-handed, sometimes off the wrong foot, sometimes off balance, and that’s what works for me really, really well. I just couldn’t get that into the game. And finally getting those first couple of balls [this spring] to go that way just made everything click in my head and gave me the freedom to know that I can do it when it matters.”

Muncy has put together an impressive all-around first half. His .873 OPS through Thursday leads NL third basemen. He’s on pace for his highest slugging percentage (.513) in five years. But he’s most proud of the work he’s put in on the defensive side.

“I felt like I would show flashes of this, but never the consistency,” Muncy said. “And so to be able to just do it on the consistent daily basis that I’ve been doing this year, that’s easily what I’m most proud of.”

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Now, with that well-rounded body of work, he’s in position to claim the third All-Star selection of his career and first since 2021.

Muncy entered Stage 2 of All-Star fan voting this week as the favorite to claim the starting nod at third base, up against fellow finalist Alec Bohm. But voting totals reset, adding some unpredictability to the process. The All-Star starters are set to be revealed Saturday at 4:30 p.m. on Fox.

“In total, the player, the defense, the hitting, the slugging, I think this is the best version of Max,” manager Dave Roberts said. “I’m so happy that he’s leading the All-Star voting.”

Not only is this shaping up to be Muncy’s best offensive season since 2021, it’s the best defensive season of his career, regardless of position.

Entering this weekend’s series against the Padres, he had a fielding run value of plus-five runs, tied with the Giants’ Matt Chapman for the highest mark among third basemen, according to Statcast.

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“He’s always been a hitter,” first-base/infield coach Chris Woodward said. “And I think he took it upon himself to say, ‘I’m going to prove to everybody that I’m a really good defensive player,’ which he has been in his time here, but he’s just never had the opportunity to play one position.”

Though Muncy is in his 11th major-league season, and has played all around the infield for most of it, 2022 marked his first season making the majority of his appearances at third base. And 2023 was his first season moving there full time.

He was also limited by injuries in that span. For years, he still felt the effects of the elbow injury he suffered toward the end of 2021. And he strained his right oblique in each of the last two seasons.

“Third base was just a new position for me, and it just took time to learn it,” Muncy said. “And so just trying to get my work to translate into the game is a tough thing to do, and that’s kind of the secret to every aspect of baseball.”

Each infield position is unique, with its own quirks in footwork, angles and timing. Each has plays — like a slow-roller up the third baseline that requires a quick throw across the diamond — that no other position will encounter.

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“When a righty gets around the ball, it comes off the bat a lot different than when a lefty gets around the ball,” Muncy said. “And it’s weird how that works, and it’s hard to explain, but that’s just the way it is.”

For much of Muncy’s baseball life he played on the right side of the infield, fielding pull-side contact from left-handed hitters and opposite-field contact from right-handed hitters. That was second nature.

“You have to completely flip that,” Muncy said of playing third base, “and understand which way it’s going to bounce, how it’s going to bounce, how it’s going to get to you. It just took years of experience to finally get to that point.”

Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts, left, and third baseman Max Muncy congratulate each other coming off the field after a defensive play against the Baltimore Orioles on June 19.

(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)

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Woodward has always been impressed by Muncy’s agility, surprised when the Dodgers first promoted him in 2018 (as he returned to the big leagues for the first time since being released by the A’s the previous spring) and by how he moved at second base, despite an atypical build for a middle infielder.

Now, after an offseason with a new diet and training program, he may have leveled up that part of his game — even at 35 years old.

“In the past it was a good first step, and he couldn’t sustain his speed,” Woodward said. “And this year I think he can sustain the speed through the ball.”

Said Muncy: “I’m still beating the age curve for now.”

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Woodward also noted how good Muncy is at staying on top of the mental side of the game, knowing how specific pitches to different types of hitters should change his positioning. That, along with regular communication, are some of the details that make the Dodgers infield look like it’s moving as a unit — or, as Woodward put it, an “NFL defense” because of the way they swarm to the ball.

The Dodgers’ infield defense as a whole has improved even from last season (No. 6 in fielding run value) to sit in the No. 3 spot in the majors (plus-17 runs) a little past the halfway point of the season.

Muncy unlocking even more potential in the hot corner is a big part of the Dodgers raising their defensive ceiling. That’s helped the Dodgers, who own the best record in the majors, create separation in the standings. But it’ll be even more vital in the postseason, when the margin for error is at its thinnest.

In All-Star voting, defense won’t be the determining factor. Muncy’s increased power at the plate is the far flashier aspect of his case to start the Midsummer Classic. But a well-rounded resume doesn’t hurt.

Muncy can picture it: his three children — Sophie Kate, who turns 5 this month, Wyatt James, 3, and Macie Grace, who was born in January — taking in All-Star weekend in Philadelphia, watching their dad represent the National League.

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“Being able to have my kids experience the whole ordeal with me would mean everything to me,” Muncy said. “My oldest is kind of old enough now to remember these types of things, and so I think it’d be really special to just share that moment with them.”

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VAR denies Croatia’s game-tying goal as Cristiano Ronaldo leads Portugal to Round of 16

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VAR denies Croatia’s game-tying goal as Cristiano Ronaldo leads Portugal to Round of 16

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Croatia thought their FIFA World Cup hopes were still alive when they scored the game-tying goal just before the end of stoppage time in the second half.

But a VAR review said Mario Pasalic was offside, and it was Portugal moving on instead.

Gonçalo Ramos’ goal just minutes earlier — a beautiful header into the back of the net in the 94th minute — was the decider in this 2-1 victory for Portugal. And it was only the second time in Portuguese World Cup history the nation needed to come from behind to win, underscoring its resilience on the sport’s biggest stage.

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Luka Modric of Croatia and teammates react after the 1-2 loss during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32 match between Portugal and Croatia at Toronto Stadium on July 2, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario. (Patrick Smith – FIFA)

It was a controversial ending, though, and one where Croatia tried to argue the ball never hit the head of Igor Matanovic, which made Pasalic offside during VAR review.

It’s also worth noting that a new chip within the ball shows when it is touched, giving more concrete evidence to the referee’s final decision in such a crucial time of the match. This was the 10th goal overruled by VAR thus far in the World Cup.

GABRIEL MARTINELLI’S 96TH-MINUTE GOAL RESCUES BRAZIL FROM JAPAN UPSET IN WORLD CUP ROUND OF 32

So, with the goal annulled, Croatia’s time at the tournament has ended. As a result, Croatian legend Luka Modrić is finishing his fifth World Cup, which will likely be the 40-year-old midfielder’s final one.

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But another older legend on the pitch will move on, as Cristiano Ronaldo made some World Cup history during this match.

When No. 7 stepped foot on the pitch and the ball was kicked, he became the oldest player to participate in a knockout stage match at the World Cup at 41 years and 147 days old. He also became the oldest player to score in a knockout stage match when he saw a penalty situation while Portugal was down 1-0 in the match.

Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal celebrates after scoring his team’s first goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32 match between Portugal and Croatia at Toronto Stadium on July 2, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario. (Patrick Smith – FIFA)

Ivan Perisic got the first goal of this game and put Portugal’s back against the wall. But after a foul was committed inside Croatia’s box in the 67th minute, it was time for Ronaldo to get his first career knockout goal, and he didn’t disappoint.

Ronaldo was ecstatic, sprinting toward the corner flag and performing his signature “SIU!” celebration, which the crowd bellowed with the score at 1-1. Ronaldo had also seemed to get that first knockout goal just minutes earlier but he was called offside.

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Modrić and Ronaldo, two former teammates on Real Madrid, also made history together, as they were the first two players 40 years or older to play in the same match together.

Luka Modric of Croatia congratulates Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal after the 2-1 win during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32 match between Portugal and Croatia at Toronto Stadium on July 2, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario. (Buda Mendes/Getty Images)

It was also an emotional moment after the match, as Ronaldo wore the jersey of late Portugal teammate Diogo Jota, who died in a car accident a year ago. A team photo was taken on the pitch, with Ronaldo holding up Jota’s jersey alongside his squad.

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Now that the job is done in the Round of 32 for Portugal, they face a big challenge against a key rival in the Round of 16.

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Spain, who dominated Austria with a 3-0 finish earlier on Thursday, awaits Portugal at Dallas Stadium on July 6 at 3 p.m. ET.

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