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Why U.S. Test Scores Are in a ‘Generation-Long Decline’

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Why U.S. Test Scores Are in a ‘Generation-Long Decline’

Something troubling is happening in U.S. education.

Almost everywhere in America, students are performing worse than their peers were 10 years ago, according to new, district-level test score data released Wednesday by the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford.

Compared with a decade earlier, reading scores were down last year in 83 percent of school districts where data was available. Math scores were down in 70 percent. The declines have affected both rich and poor districts, and crossed racial and geographic divides.

The new data provides the first national comparison of school districts through 2025, and offers a detailed picture of how individual school districts have performed over time. It underscores that many districts have experienced a long-term slump in student achievement, not just a blip during the pandemic.

From 2017 to 2019, students lost as much ground in reading as they did during the pandemic, and reading scores continued to fall at a similar rate through 2024.

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Immediately after the pandemic, there was hope that students would recover quickly. The new data shows that scores inched upward in reading last year, and have climbed more steadily in math since 2022. But it has been nowhere near enough to make up for lost ground, researchers said.

The biggest losses have been among the lowest-achieving students.

“I cannot be more emphatic: This is an enormous problem that’s not getting enough attention,” said Nat Malkus, a senior fellow studying education policy at the American Enterprise Institute.

A report on the new data describes a decade-long “learning recession.” It was released Wednesday by the Education Scorecard, a joint project by Sean Reardon at the Stanford group; Thomas Kane at the Center for Education Policy Research at Harvard; and Douglas Staiger at Dartmouth.

The data includes third- through eighth-grade test scores for districts in 40 states and the District of Columbia, as of the end of last school year. It accounts for about 68 percent of U.S. school districts nationwide. (Ten states were excluded, among them New York and Illinois, because of high opt-out rates or noncomparable data.)

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Education experts say there is no single reason for the declines. But the timing provides some clues.

Students’ test scores had been increasing since 1990 — then abruptly stopped in the mid-2010s. That coincided with two events: an easing of federal school accountability under No Child Left Behind, which was replaced in 2015, and the rise of smartphones, social media and personalized school laptops.

The pandemic then accelerated learning declines, especially for the poorest students. Some pandemic effects have lingered. Student absenteeism, for example, remains higher than prepandemic.

In one in three school districts in the United States, students are reading a full grade level lower than they were in 2015.

Only a few states, like Mississippi, have avoided the plunge.

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Math scores declined more steeply during pandemic school closures but also started rebounding more quickly. Researchers say that’s probably because math is more affected by what happens in school, while reading skills can be developed at home.

Test scores in low-income districts fell furthest, but affluent districts — the types of places families move to for the schools — also lost ground. The changes might not be as evident, because many children are still far above grade level. Yet among the richest districts, more than half have lower test scores compared with a decade ago.

“There are a lot of people in affluent districts who think things are just fine, who have seen big losses over time,” said Professor Kane, the lead author of the report.

The districts with the least improvement since the pandemic, however, were middle-income districts, according to the analysis.

Poor districts received the most pandemic aid from the federal government, which the report concluded helped their recovery. In the richest districts, families have more money to supplement academics outside of school.

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Some experts believe that the end of No Child Left Behind, the contentious school accountability law signed by President George W. Bush in 2002, explains some of the recent test score declines.

The law set a goal that all students would be proficient in reading and math, and schools that did not show progress could face penalties. It coincided with a period of rising test scores, especially in math, though reading scores improved more modestly. Low-performing students saw the biggest gains.

The law, though, was deeply unpopular with many educators and parents. Critics said it put an outsize focus on testing, pushing schools to teach to the test and spend less time on other important subjects, like the arts or social studies. In 2015, Congress replaced it, and many states dialed back on requirements.

Like many who have studied the law, Brian A. Jacob, professor of education policy at the University of Michigan, showed that it increased test scores but had problematic elements.

“It was not a cure-all, but I think it really did improve student achievement,” he said. “There’s evidence that school accountability does change behaviors of teachers and administrators and probably parents and students.”

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Beyond the policy specifics, its passage reflected a nationwide, bipartisan push to improve education, some experts said, that the country seems to have lost in its absence.

Yet some other countries have seen similar declines in scores, suggesting additional factors may be at play.

Something happened globally around the same time: the proliferation of devices, at home and in school.

Nearly half of American teenagers now say they are online “almost constantly,” compared with just under a quarter who said that a decade ago, according to Pew Research Center. Virtually all schools give children laptops or tablets in class, as early as kindergarten.

Few rigorous studies have teased out the role of devices in academic outcomes. Yet educators say there’s no question that swiping has decreased students’ focus and persistence, and time on devices has displaced time spent reading or studying. Far more teenagers — nearly one in three — now say they “never or hardly ever” read for fun.

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In turn, schools expect less from students, assigning fewer whole books and simplifying the curriculum, said Carol Jago, associate director of the California Reading and Literature Project at the University of California, Los Angeles.

“There’s no other way, except volume, in order to become a really proficient, fluent, avid reader,” she said.

Radnor Township, an affluent district outside Philadelphia, is one of the highest scoring in Pennsylvania. Teachers still expect students to read full books, including novels like “To Kill a Mockingbird.” The vast majority of students are proficient readers. Still, fewer score at an advanced level on state tests — under 40 percent last year, down from 51 percent in 2015.

It’s harder to keep students’ attention, even after the district banned personal phones and smartwatches during the school day, said Sharon Schaefer, assistant to the superintendent: “We know screens are so stimulating to our students.”

Researchers said a rise in mental health issues and learning disabilities may also play a role in declining achievement, as could changing expectations toward education. The share of Americans who say college is very important has fallen to a record low, 35 percent, according to Gallup, nearly half what it was a decade ago.

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Still, some districts are making uncommon gains.

In 2015, Compton Unified, a poor district south of Los Angeles, was scoring 2.5 grade levels below the national average in math and reading. Today, its students are about at the national average, according to the new data.

The superintendent, Darin Brawley, said one reason was a focus on getting children to come to school every day. It’s a topic at his regular meetings with small groups of principals. In Compton, just 5 percent of students are chronically absent, compared with an estimated 23 percent nationally.

Superintendent Brawley credited a number of other strategies, including giving short, weekly quizzes to assess student learning and using the results to identify students who need tutoring. The tutoring happens during the school day — not after school — an approach he says is crucial for reaching the neediest students.

Washington, D.C., another district with test score gains, has also invested in tutoring, and was an early adopter of the science of reading, which emphasizes direct, sequential teaching of phonics, vocabulary and other skills.

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The new report found that science of reading reforms were necessary, but not sufficient, to improve scores. Only states that had embraced science of reading reforms showed improvement from 2022 to 2025 — yet not all of those that did saw gains.

Washington, D.C., has also taken more unusual measures trying to find “the right recipe,” said Lewis D. Ferebee, the chancellor. Teachers who are deemed highly effective, a rating that includes raising test scores, are eligible for bonuses up to $25,000. Teachers receive a bigger bonus for working in the highest-need schools.

But in many places, addressing the “academic, generation-long decline” doesn’t seem to be a priority, said Mr. Malkus of the American Enterprise Institute.

“I think the thing that’s going to haunt us, whenever Congress and some states wake up to what’s going on,” he said, “is that it wasn’t the pandemic.”

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Video: Are These Portable Fans Worth It?

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Video: Are These Portable Fans Worth It?

new video loaded: Are These Portable Fans Worth It?

Yes, we tested the new luxury personal fans from Dyson and Shark. We still think our affordable no-name favorites are better.
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How a Recent College Graduate Lives on $18 Per Hour in the East Bronx

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How a Recent College Graduate Lives on  Per Hour in the East Bronx

How can people possibly afford to live in one of the most expensive cities on the planet? It’s a question New Yorkers hear a lot, often delivered with a mix of awe, pity and confusion.

We surveyed hundreds of New Yorkers about how they spend, splurge and save. We found that many people — rich, poor or somewhere in between — live life as a series of small calculations that add up to one big question: What makes living in New York worth it?

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Jaden Baldeon is a recent college graduate who is trying to carve a life out for himself while making sure his family has a good one, too. And at 20 years old, he is one of the newest entrants to the city’s work force who is feeling its high prices most acutely.

He lives at home with his mother and two siblings in a two-bedroom apartment in the East Bronx. He makes $18 per hour working part-time at a swimming school and makes roughly $550 biweekly, contributing about half of that each month to household expenses.

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Now that classes are over, the weather is warming and more people are heading to the pool, he plans to increase his hours to full-time, from 30 to more than 40 hours. He hopes to do so to keep his family members from feeling the worst of the cash crunch.

“As soon as I hit 18, a lot of the adult responsibilities have come into play,” he said, adding that he and his mother have had a lot of conversations about budgeting and spending.

As the son of immigrants from the Dominican Republic and El Salvador, Mr. Baldeon said he feels the pressure to succeed, especially because many of his relatives worked full-time by the time they were his age.

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He added that he feels he is “breaking barriers” by earning his associate of liberal arts degree. He received the degree in May from Seton College at the University of Mount Saint Vincent, which offers a debt-free two-year degree and provides students with financial literacy education, access to free meals and a laptop. He is considering returning to the university in the fall to continue studies for his undergraduate degree.

His college experience and home life have taught him the real value of a dollar — and helped him find new ways to save for the life he wants.

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“You don’t want to live and just be surviving. You want to have nice things,” he said. “That’s what it’s been: balancing both of those things and trying to help out here and there.”

A Tight Schedule

Maintaining a strict daily regimen has helped Mr. Baldeon budget and track his spending. For most of the final months of the spring semester, he planned out his daily schedule to determine whether he would use public transportation from his home in the Bronx to classes on campus in Riverdale, which costs roughly $6 round trip, or take his university’s free shuttle.

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On the weekends, he works part-time at the Goldfish Swim School in New Rochelle, where he earns about $18 an hour doing tech support, membership management and front desk check-ins. He commutes to work using Metro-North, which costs roughly $7.00 per round-trip ticket. (He keeps an eye out for the less expensive off-peak tickets, too.)

But even his best-laid plans come against the realities of commuting in the city.

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“Transportation is kind of a gamble,” he said, noting the occasional schedule delays and lack of available seating. “So sometimes I just have to opt for an emergency cab.”

When he returns home from classes late at night or if he works a late shift, he sometimes chooses a ride-share service and has an Uber One membership to help secure a lower price for cars, which can cost $40 or more during rush hour. If a ride home is more expensive, he uses local car service alternatives in his neighborhood that are discounted and allow cash payments.

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A Model Saver

Living at home has helped Mr. Baldeon save on housing while in college and take some of the financial strain off his mother. He said that he contributes most often to household goods and regularly uses coupons to get them at even more of a discount.

He most often buys paper goods and also helps buy groceries, which gives his family more of a financial cushion to enjoy better-quality items and opt more often for fresh produce over canned or frozen. Recently, he started buying laundry detergent in bulk from local vendors rather than directly from the store, allowing his family to save around $10 dollars and get a larger supply.

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Student discounts help, too: Mr. Baldeon recently opened a student Discover card to build credit and used the card to buy a special mop for the floors in his home. His student email address has helped him get discounts on audiobooks, music and other perks.

“I just try to save anytime I can, in all transparency,” he said.

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Saving is becoming a family affair. His younger sister, who is in middle school, landed a position with the city’s Summer Youth Employment Program, marking her first job. His younger brother, in high school, is looking for a summer job. It’s unlikely that much of their earnings will go toward the household expenses, though. Mr. Baldeon said he hopes his siblings will use their first paychecks to learn about financial responsibility and pay for things themselves over the summer — something he did when he got one of his first jobs through the program.

“It was a very good feeling to have some money of my own,” he said. “It was definitely quality of life for me, too, so that’s what I want to stress to them as well.”

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Eyes on the Future

Living at home, working more hours and delaying a return to college has helped Mr. Baldeon put money aside for what could be his biggest future expense: a car.

Four more wheels, he said, will make his commute to work much easier and give his mother and siblings more time to run errands during the week. His dream model? A Subaru WRX Impreza.

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“It could be used, older, I don’t care,” he said. “As long as it’s that one.”

Mr. Baldeon was born and raised in New York and loves it as his home. But after he moves out of his mother’s house, he said he probably won’t stay in the city much longer. He is considering going upstate to Rochester, where he has family, or a more rural place where his dollar can stretch a little further to allow him to build a home for himself.

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“I want something of my own for sure,” he said. “So I want to get out of the city.”

We are talking to New Yorkers about how they spend, splurge and save.

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Video: Can California Convince Teens to Work in Construction?

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Video: Can California Convince Teens to Work in Construction?

“So —” “I’m going to the University of Oregon.” “Colorado School of Mines.” “Syracuse University.” “C.S.U.—L.A.” “I wanted to be like a medical student. I realize now that I want to become an electrician.” There used to be straightforward messaging about how to achieve success in America. “Go to school, go to college, get a degree, make money.” But times have changed. Student debt has skyrocketed. Jobs are hard to find, and now A.I. is threatening to upend the economy. “Like you can barely find jobs nowadays.” “I’ve heard a lot about coders — how A.I. just completely eliminated them.” “It feels as though the economy is like just continuously moving against us.” “I don’t think there’s a perfect American dream anymore. I think, honestly.” In California, the world’s A.I. capital, the state is keenly aware that students are looking for new options. “No one cares how much you know because ChatGPT knows more.” It’s part of a nationwide conversation happening in government, at schools and increasingly on the internet. “Why the hell would you go to college? Like, seriously.” “There’s so many people with multiple degrees that are broke.” “I became a millionaire from construction like a year and a half ago.” “I would see all these people saying, ‘I dropped out of high school, I dropped out of college, and I’m a millionaire.’ And I was like, ‘I need to learn how to do that.’” California is pouring money into hands-on trade programs in public schools. There’s a construction labor shortage in the state, and in 2021, the state doubled a grant for classes like this to help solve it. “Yeah — hit it like it owes you money. So start it off steep so you can swing your hammer back. State of California educational system has seen that if students are not going to go to a four-year college. They should have an option. I would say over 95 percent of my students, maybe even higher, have never used any tools before in their life. And I would say almost 100 percent had never used a power tool. Ta da — see, you know how to do it. “No, I had no idea this class existed. I didn’t even really consider construction seriously until I took this class.” “I actually did consider, oh, maybe I should go to trade school. Or maybe I should focus less on aero-engineering as a degree.” “A.I. is not going to build a home. A.I. isn’t going to weld anything either.” “We had somebody come and talk to our class about electricians and can still make $200,000 a year.” More students across the country are choosing to go to trade school — but working with your hands still comes with a stigma, and the college path still holds a lot of power. “Yeah — yeah. Almost 100 percent.” “I think a lot of people, especially older generations, still believe that trades are like dirty.” “I have students who are very good carpenters, and their parents still want them to go to college, and I totally respect that.” “I come from an immigrant family, and so pressure has been even more heavy. They’re supportive. They’re just a little disappointed that I’m not going to college.” “They don’t want their sons or daughters to go into the trades. They think it is less than. And I try to have this conversation with them and say the trades are a good place to go to make a living. There you go.” But for this generation of Bay Area kids, who grew up in the pandemic and are seeing major changes in the tech industry, the overall feeling is that no path is safe. “As you can see, we just built these little kitchen tiles and to me they look great. If you make a wrong decision, that could lead you into a debt spiral and you’re just kind of stuck.” “I don’t have any friends that are really wanting to go into the tech industry at all because of A.I.” “You’re paying $400,000 and then what are you going to get from it?” “Like, am I going to be able to make all this back when I get a job?” “And we have a storage cabinet in here. This generation, especially, you really have to think about what you’re going to do. Because if your plan is not future-proof, the world is going to eat you. It’s so small, but it’s a pretty cozy little home.”

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