Low turnout among Democrats in the 2022 governor’s race, won by Gov. Ron DeSantis by a stunning 19%, has led to a larger number of registered Democrats going to inactive status, analysts say.

With another presidential election year taking shape, Florida’s reputation as the nation’s biggest battleground state has faded: Republicans now hold the biggest advantage in voter registration either major party has held in almost four decades. 

State elections data through last month shows the GOP has just surpassed a major milestone. The party’s 851,417-voter lead marks the biggest gap between the parties in Florida since Democrats dominated by more than 854,000 votes in 1988. 

The gulf could make Florida an afterthought in this year’s presidential contest. The state’s presidential primary on Tuesday also is mostly meaningless, with the rematch of President Joe Biden versus former President Donald Trump already set for November. 

Instead, more competitive states are where the contenders in coming months will likely steer their TV advertising, campaign staff and barnstorming visits, both sides said.  

“From a presidential standpoint, I think we’ll win pretty big here,” Florida Republican Party chair Evan Power said, looking ahead to the fall. “Obviously, we’re going to continue to work hard on the U.S. Senate race and down ballot contests. But I think it’s clear we’re a firmly red state now.” 

Voter status change a contributing factor

Democrats say the divide between the parties is misleading, swelled by the shifting of almost 1 million voters last year from active to inactive status, under a new state law that threatens the eligibility of those who fail to cast a ballot during the previous two general elections. 

Inactive voters can contact their county elections office to be restored to active status, or simply show up to vote in the next election. 

Low turnout among Democrats in the 2022 governor’s race, won by Gov. Ron DeSantis by a stunning 19%, has led to a disproportionate number of registered Democrats going to inactive status, analysts said. 

But the distance between the parties is striking given that Republicans only edged out registered Democrats for the first time in the state’s modern history at the end of 2021.  

Since then, the state has turned only redder. 

Media dollars going elsewhere

Tracking company AdImpact already projects that Florida, after leading the nation in media spending in the 2020 presidential contest, will fall to eighth place in this year’s contest. 

Florida is forecast to fall behind Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin, all states where the White House may be won or lost. 

Florida politics have changed significantly since the 2000 election, when the state’s politically purple hue was firmly cast with the 537-vote margin by which Republican George W. Bush carried the state and won the White House. 

Bush won again four years later before the pendulum swung and Democrat Barack Obama twice carried Florida. After Trump took the state in 2016 and carried it by an even bigger margin in 2020, DeSantis’ re-election victory two years ago was by the largest spread in a Florida governor’s race in 40 years. 

Combined, Florida seemed affirmed as a red state. 

There are more Republicans than Democrats now in 56 of the state’s 67 counties. Voter registration numbers suggest Florida’s 30 electoral votes are destined to be rung up on Trump’s side. 

NPAs give Democrats a wild card and hope

But Democrats say just looking at the widening gap between registered voters fails to account for the wild card of no-party-affiliated Floridians – which comprise 26% of the state’s electorate. 

“While our numbers on the surface don’t look as pretty as someone who is chair of the party would like to see, there are reasons and Democrats know that we can never win an election with just Democrats,” said Florida Democratic Party chair Nikki Fried. 

“We always have to make sure our message transcends partisan politics,” she added, pointing out that the Biden White House remains focused on Florida. 

Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled to visit Parkland’s Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School on Saturday to talk about gun safety measures that the administration has enacted and outline efforts to reduce gun violence.

Promising to ease the state’s property insurance woes, with Floridians paying the highest homeowners’ costs in the nation, a lack of affordable housing, and combating the state’s strict new abortion law are among the issues Democrats will run on this fall, Fried said. 

“We will be talking to independents and moderate Republicans who believe this new MAGA Republican Party is not reflective of their values,” Fried said. “We’ve had 30 years of one-party rule in this state. But we have an opportunity to transform the electorate by staying on the message of what Floridians are really talking about.” 

The year it was safe to watch TV — again

Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist and pollster, said Floridians may have to adjust to finding themselves in new terrain – the sideline of a major presidential campaign. 

“Every cycle you hear people saying, ‘I wish this thing would end, I’m sick of seeing these commercials,’ ” Wagner said. “Well, this might be the year where we’re one of those outside states. I wonder if Florida voters will like or dislike that we’re not the focus of the campaign?” 

He said an economic hit may be felt by TV stations not drawing their usual vast volume of advertising dollars. Consultants and media firms may also face a downturn. 

Read more: How Florida turned red: Changing population, weak opposition, aggressive Gov. Ron DeSantis

A disturbance in the force? Are Florida Republicans breaking from DeSantis? Divide grows as GOP ‘wish list’ fades

Wagner said it’s clear the state is not the battleground it once was. But he said it can still prove competitive. 

“There are a substantial number of voters that would vote for a Democrat, when you factor in registered Democrats and the NPAs,” he said. “But it’s going to require the Democratic Party to reach voters more effectively than they have. 

“Elections are always products of which cohort of voters is most interested in participating,” Wagner added. “What has really hurt Democratic chances in this state are that there has been a demoralization of voters and you see that in turnout numbers. Democrats need to motivate their voters in ways they have not.” 

Still plenty of political action

Florida will still have plenty of political action. U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, a Republican, is running for reelection, with former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell looking like the strongest Democratic opponent, while legislative and congressional contests also will draw attention. 

But a lot starts with the top of the ticket and the heat gauge on the presidential race. 

“I don’t expect to see presidential candidates spending a lot of time campaigning here. Their time and money are much better spent in true swing states,” said Nick Iarossi, who was national finance co-chair for DeSantis’ presidential campaign, which ended after a distant, second-place finish behind Trump in the Iowa caucuses. 

However, “Republican candidates from all over the country will make the fundraising pilgrimage to Florida’s fertile grounds,” added Iarossi, a lobbyist and Republican fundraiser.  

He said Florida wealthy GOP donors, many recently transplanted from other states, “have a renewed interest to give to down ballot Republican candidates in Florda where their money can make a difference.” 

While the numbers don’t look good for Democrats, history may provide some hope. 

Numbers don’t guarantee victory, history shows

In 1988, when Florida Democrats had an advantage among registered voters like that now held by Republicans it didn’t help the party’s presidential candidate, Michael Dukakis. He failed miserably in the state.

Republican nominee George H.W. Bush won 61% of the vote in Florida, carrying 66 of the state’s 67 counties, with only rural Gadsden County siding with the Democrat. 

But Fried said the party isn’t giving up on the state. 

“We’ve been in constant communication with President Biden and his team, along with the Democratic National Committee and they understand that they cannot leave Florida behind,” Fried said. “They see the work we’re doing and we know there’s going to be a significant drop off among Republicans who are disenfranchised when facing the possibility of another President Trump administration.”

Chris Persaud of the Palm Beach Post contributed. John Kennedy is a reporter in the USA TODAY Network’s Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jkennedy2@gannett.com, or on Twitter at @JKennedyReport