Science
Humans Are Altering the Seas. Here’s What the Future Ocean Might Look Like.
Working from a dock on St. Helena Island, S.C., on a sweltering day this summer, Ed Atkins pulled in a five-foot cast net from the water and dumped out a few glossy white shrimp from the salt marsh.
Mr. Atkins, a Gullah Geechee fisherman, sells live bait to anglers in a shop his parents opened in 1957. “When they passed, they made sure I tapped into it and keep it going,” he said. “I’ve been doing it myself now for 40 years.”
These marshes, which underpin Mr. Atkins’s way of life, are where the line between land and sea blurs. They provide a crucial nursery habitat for many marine species, including commercial and recreational fisheries.
But these vast, seemingly timeless seascapes have become some of the world’s most vulnerable marine habitats, according to a new study published on Thursday in the journal Science that adds up and maps the ways human activity is profoundly reshaping oceans and coastlines around the world.
Soon, many of Earth’s marine ecosystems could be fundamentally and forever altered if pressures like climate change, overfishing, ocean acidification and coastal development continue unabated, according to the authors.
It’s “death by a thousand cuts,” said Ben Halpern, a marine biologist and ecologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and one of the authors of the new study. “It’s going to be a less rich community of species. And it may not be something we recognize.”
Among the other ecosystems at high risk are sea grass meadows, rocky intertidal zones and mangrove forests. These parts of the ocean, near shore, are the ones people most depend on. They provide natural defenses against storm damage. And the vast majority of commercial and recreational fishing, which together support more than two million jobs in the United States alone, takes place in shallower coastal waters.
There’s also an intangible cultural richness at stake. The culture of Gullah Geechee people like Mr. Atkins, a community descended from enslaved West Africans forced to work the rice and cotton plantations of the Southeastern coast, for example, is inextricably linked to fishing and the seashore.
“We have our own language, we have our own food ways, we have our own ecological system here,” said Marquetta Goodwine, the elected head of the Gullah Geechee people and a leader in efforts to protect and restore the coastline. That distinctive culture, she said, depends on things like the oyster beds, the native grasses and the maritime forests that characterize the seashore and the scores of tidal and barrier islands here, collectively known as the Sea Islands.
“You don’t have that, you don’t have a Sea Island,” said Ms. Goodwine, who also goes by Queen Quet. “You don’t have a Sea Island, you don’t have Gullah Geechee culture.”
A Poorer Ocean
The new study tries to measure just how much various human-caused pressures are squeezing, shifting and transforming coastal and marine habitats.
The research began in the early 2000s, when widespread coral bleaching was raising alarm among marine scientists. In response, Dr. Halpern and his colleagues set out to map the parts of the ocean that were healthiest and least affected by humans and, conversely, which parts were the most affected.
The inherent challenge was comparing marine habitats, from coral reefs to the deep ocean floor, and their responses to different human activities and pressures, like fishing and rising temperatures, all on a common scale. They came up with what researchers call an impact score that’s based on a formula incorporating the location of each habitat, the intensities of the various pressures on that habitat, and the vulnerabilities of each habitat to each form of pressure.
Under the world’s current trajectory, the study found, by the middle of the century about 3 percent of the total global ocean is at risk of changing beyond recognition. In the nearshore ocean, which most people are more familiar with, the number rises to more than 12 percent.
That future will look different in different regions. Tropical and polar seas are expected to face more pronounced effects than temperate, mid-latitude ones. Human pressures are expected to increase faster in offshore zones, but coastal waters will continue to experience the most serious effects, the researchers forecast.
There are also countries that are considered more vulnerable because they depend more heavily on resources from the ocean: Togo, Ghana and Sri Lanka top the list in the study.
Across the whole ocean, scientists generally agree that many places will look ecologically poorer, with less biodiversity, Dr. Halpern said. That’s mainly because the number of species that are resilient against climate change and other human pressures is simply far fewer than the number of more vulnerable species.
The study found that the biggest pressures, both now and in the future, are ocean warming and overfishing. But the researchers most likely underestimated the effects of fishing, they wrote, because their model assumes that fishing activity will hold steady rather than increase. They also focused only on the species actually targeted by fishing fleets and did not include by-catch, the unwanted species swept up in gear like gill nets and discarded, or habitat destruction from bottom trawling.
The effects of some other human activities aren’t well represented either, including seabed drilling and mining, which are expanding quickly offshore.
Another limitation of the Science study is the fact that the researchers simply added together the pressures from human activities in a linear way to arrive at their estimate of cumulative effects. In reality, those effects might add up to more than the sum of their parts.
Even low-ranking global stressors can cause enormous damage to local ecosystems
How individual stressors contribute to cumulative impacts
“Some of these activities, they might be synergistic, they might be doubling,” said Mike Elliott, a marine biologist and emeritus professor at the University of Hull in England who was not involved in the study. “And some might be antagonistic, might be canceling.”
Even so, Dr. Elliott said he agreed with the broad conclusions of the new study. Scientists could argue about whether the cumulative effects of human activities will double or triple, he said, “but it will be more, because we’re doing more in the sea.”
“If we wait until we’ve got perfect data,” he added, “we’ll never do anything.”
‘Time to Scale It Up’
One of the benefits of such studies is that they can help inform better ocean planning and management, including initiatives like 30×30, the global effort to place 30 percent of the world’s land and seas under protection by 2030.
In South Carolina, one place that has already been set aside is the ACE Basin, a largely undeveloped 350,000-acre wetland on the state’s southern coast that is named for the Ashepoo, Combahee and Edisto rivers, which thread through it.
Riding a boat across the enormous basin can be disorienting. The world flattens as the sun beats down and salt marsh stretches in every direction. Almost everything is a vivid blue or green, like an abstract painting or a map come to life.
White wading birds dot the green marsh grasses, and occasional groups of gray bottlenose dolphins break the blue surface of the water.
Sometimes the dolphins corral their fish prey onto the mud and temporarily beach themselves for a meal, using the salt marsh islands like giant dinner plates. This behavior, called strand feeding, is rarely seen outside the Southeast.
On a recent visit, in one tucked-away corner of the marsh, something emerged from the mud at low tide: a wall, built with concrete blocks now nearly hidden by thousands of shells. They’re called oyster castles, and they look like something out of a storybook about mermaids.
The blocks were placed by volunteers from the Boeing assembly plant in nearby North Charleston. The effort was organized by the Nature Conservancy and the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources as part of a growing string of living shorelines projects, which aim to stabilize the coast using natural materials like shellfish and native vegetation, in South Carolina and beyond.
The oyster castles are meant to protect the landscapes behind them from erosion, sea level rise and storm surges. Scientists from the Nature Conservancy have been experimenting with a variety of methods for years, and are beginning to see results. Behind the oyster castles, which allow water to pass through and deposit sediment, mud had piled up significantly higher than elsewhere. And in the mud, marsh grass has taken root and grown tall.
“We’ve been testing and piloting things for so long, and now is the time to scale it up,” said Elizabeth Fly, director of resilience and ocean conservation at the Nature Conservancy’s South Carolina chapter.
In fact, the state’s oyster shell recycling program has now built small living shorelines at more than 200 sites, all with the help of volunteers, and often working with other groups, like the Gullah Geechee Nation. There’s a living shoreline taking shape at the Charleston wastewater treatment plant. Another at the entrance to the exclusive Kiawah Island Golf Resort. They’re at Marine Corps bases, at boat launches and at docks.
Many of these efforts are part of a sprawling network called the South Atlantic Salt Marsh Initiative, which includes the Pew Charitable Trusts, the Department of Defense, other federal agencies and state governments. The network spans one million acres of salt marsh across four Southeastern states.
Amid those efforts to reinforce and protect marine ecosystems, and as scientists work to better understand the pressures that are altering the oceans, people in coastal communities everywhere are already living changes large and small.
The day after Mr. Atkins demonstrated his fishing methods, the town of Mount Pleasant, S.C., 80 miles up the coast, held its annual Sweetgrass Festival to celebrate the region’s traditional Gullah Geechee baskets. Dozens of artists braved the heat in booths at a waterfront park, showing off and selling baskets woven from sweetgrass, bulrush, palmetto leaves and pine needles.
One artist and teacher, Henrietta Snype, displayed baskets made by five generations of her family, from her grandmother down to her own grandchildren.
Ms. Snype started making baskets at age 7. Now, at 73, she takes pride in upholding the tradition and teaching others the craft and its history. But she feels the world around her changing.
She said she had noticed the climate shifting for many years now. Big hurricanes seem to have become more frequent and seem to do more damage. And making baskets is harder, too.
Traditionally, the men in basket-making families went out into the dunes, marshes and woods to gather the materials they needed. But lately, Ms. Snype said, the plants have been harder to find. Sweetgrass is diminishing, and harvesters have trouble getting access to built-up and privately owned parts of the coastline.
“The times bring on a lot of change,” she said.
Methodology
Maps and table showing human impacts on oceans reflect estimates based on the SSP2-4.5 “middle of the road” scenario, which approximates current climate policy.
Science
Contaminated meat from the grocery store may be causing your UTIs
There’s been a long-standing belief that urinary tract infections are largely caused by poor personal hygiene. New research, however, suggests that many cases may actually be caused by infections of E. coli bacteria from contaminated meat purchased in grocery stores.
UTIs are common — globally there are 400 million cases a year — and can occur when bacteria enter the urethra and infect the urinary tract, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Though public health agencies including the CDC have made clear that E. coli can cause UTIs, the information they provide is often vague. Usually, when E. coli comes up on agency websites, it’s in the context of the strains that cause diarrhea.
A new study published on Thursday in the science journal American Society for Microbiology puts the spotlight on the strains of E. coli that cause UTIs.
Between 2017 and 2021, researchers from George Washington University and Kaiser Permanente Southern California collected more than 5,700 urine samples that tested positive for E. coli from U.S. patients with UTIs who resided in Southern California, from Bakersfield to San Diego.
The researchers also took samples from meats (including turkey, chicken, pork and beef) being sold at retail locations in the neighborhoods where those patients lived.
By comparing the those two sets of samples, the researchers determined that approximately one in five of those infections could be tied to exposure to E. coli from contaminated meat that was purchased in the U.S.
“Urinary tract infections have long been considered a personal health issue, but our findings suggest that they are also a food safety problem,” said Lance Price, senior author of the study and professor of environmental and occupational health at George Washington University.
Among the meat samples, E. coli contamination was highest in chicken (found in 38% of samples collected) and turkey (36%), followed by beef (14%) and pork (12%).
According to the study, food-borne UTIs disproportionately affect women, as well as people living in lower-income areas.
Women are much more prone to the infection in general because of their anatomy. Women have a shorter urethra — the tube that carries urine from the bladder to outside the body — and the short distance makes it easier for bacteria to travel up the urethra and into the bladder. It’s unclear, however, why food-borne UTIs would affect women more than men.
It’s also uncertain why there is such a strong correlation between food-borne UTIs and people who live in high poverty areas. However, the study did find that E. coli contamination was more common in “value packs” of meat; i.e. products that contain larger quantities of meat sold at a lower price per pound.
“My own experience of actually going to grocery stores in more affluent communities versus low-income neighborhoods is that the quality of the products are lower” in the latter, Price said.
The study also suggested that factors including storage at improper temperatures, lack of proper safety and hygiene practices during handling, and production in unsanitary conditions could all have contributed to E. coli contamination.
Price said he and his team sometimes saw packages of chicken that were “bloated with saline.” The extra water could have been the culprit of the E. coli contamination if it leaked onto check-out conveyor belts and contaminated other grocery items.
While Price believes that our food supply chain could do more to lower the risk of food-borne UTIs, consumers can practice safe handling of foods to lower their risk of exposure. That includes:
- Purchasing meat and poultry that is securely sealed to prevent leakage onto other groceries.
- Thoroughly cooking all meat and poultry products. A complete list of recommended temperatures for whole cuts of beef, ground meats and poultry can be found on the CDC website.
- Avoiding cross-contamination in the kitchen.
- Washing hands and kitchen surfaces after preparing raw meat.
Science
How China Raced Ahead of the U.S. on Nuclear Power
China is quickly becoming the global leader in nuclear power, with nearly as many reactors under construction as the rest of the world combined. While its dominance of solar panels and electric vehicles is well known, China is also building nuclear plants at an extraordinary pace. By 2030, China’s nuclear capacity is set to surpass that of the United States, the first country to split atoms to make electricity.
Many of China’s reactors are derived from American and French designs, yet China has overcome the construction delays and cost overruns that have bogged down Western efforts to expand nuclear power.
At the same time, China is pushing the envelope, making breakthroughs in next-generation nuclear technologies that have eluded the West. The country is also investing heavily in fusion, a potentially limitless source of clean power if anyone can figure out how to tame it.
Beijing’s ultimate objective is to become a supplier of nuclear power to the world, joining the rare few nations — including the United States, Russia, France and South Korea — that can design and export some of the most sophisticated machines ever invented.
“The Chinese are moving very, very fast,” said Mark Hibbs, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace who has written a book on China’s nuclear program. “They are very keen to show the world that their program is unstoppable.”
As the United States and China compete for global supremacy, energy has become a geopolitical battleground. The United States, particularly under President Trump, has positioned itself as the leading supplier of fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal. China, by contrast, dominates the manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines and batteries, seeing renewable power as the multi-trillion-dollar market of the future.
Nuclear power is enjoying a resurgence of global interest, especially as concerns about climate change mount. That’s because nuclear reactors don’t spew planet-warming emissions, unlike coal and gas plants, and can produce electricity around the clock, unlike wind and solar power.
The Trump administration wants to quadruple U.S. nuclear power capacity by 2050, even as it ignores global warming, and it hopes to develop a new generation of reactor technology to power data centers at home and sell to energy-hungry countries overseas. Officials fear that if China dominates the nuclear export market, it could expand its global influence, since building nuclear plants abroad creates deep, decades-long relationships between countries.
Yet in the race for atomic energy, China has one clear advantage: It has figured out how to produce reactors relatively quickly and cheaply. The country now assembles reactors in just five to six years, twice as fast as Western nations.
While U.S. nuclear construction costs skyrocketed after the 1960s, they fell by half in China during the 2000s and have since stabilized, according to data published recently in Nature. (The only two U.S. reactors built this century, at the Vogtle nuclear plant in Waynesboro, Ga., took 11 years and cost $35 billion.)
Construction costs of nuclear reactors
“When we first got this data and saw that declining trend in China, it surprised me,” said Shangwei Liu, a research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government who led the paper.
The big questions, Mr. Liu said, are how China got so good at nuclear power — and whether the United States can catch up.
How China mastered nuclear power
A modern nuclear power plant is one of the most complex construction projects on Earth.
The reactor vessel, where atoms are split, is made of specialized steel up to 10 inches thick that must withstand bombardment by radiation for decades. That vessel, in turn, is housed in a massive containment dome, often three stories high and about as wide as the U.S. Capitol dome, made of steel-reinforced concrete to prevent dangerous leaks. Thousands of miles of piping and wiring must meet exacting safety standards.
Financing these multibillion-dollar projects is staggeringly difficult. Even minor problems, like needing regulator approval to modify a component midway through, can lead to long delays and can cause borrowing costs to skyrocket.
Over time, China has conquered this process.
It starts with heavy government support. Three state-owned nuclear developers receive cheap government-backed loans to build new reactors, which is valuable since financing can be one-third of costs. The Chinese government also requires electric grid operators to buy some of the power from nuclear plants at favorable rates.
Just as importantly, China’s nuclear companies build only a handful of reactor types and they do it over and over again.
That allows developers to perfect the construction process and is “essential for scaling efficiently,” said Joy Jiang, an energy innovation analyst at the Breakthrough Institute, a pro-nuclear research organization. “It means you can streamline licensing and simplify your supply chain.”
The fact that the Chinese government has a national mandate to expand nuclear power means that companies can confidently invest in domestic factories and a dedicated engineering work force. In a sprawling complex near Shanghai, giant reactor pressure vessels are being continuously forged, ready to be shipped to new projects without delay. Teams of specialized welders move seamlessly from one construction site to the next.
It’s been different in the West.
In the 1970s and 1980s, U.S. nuclear construction slowed to a trickle as interest rates rose and regulators frequently tightened safety rules, causing delays. Worries about the disposal of nuclear waste and fears after the 1979 partial meltdown of a reactor at Three Mile Island, in Pennsylvania, didn’t help. At the same time, private developers kept experimenting with new reactor designs that required different components and introduced fresh complications. U.S. nuclear power died from a lack of predictability.
The contrast became glaring in the late 2000s, when U.S. utilities tried to revive nuclear power with a new reactor model called the AP1000, with improved safety features. Developers struggled with the novel technology, leading to repeated delays and soaring costs. By the time the two reactors in Georgia were finished last year, most utilities were hesitant to try again.
As it happened, China built AP1000s at the same time. It, too, faced severe challenges, such as difficulties in obtaining coolant pumps and unpredictable cost spikes. But instead of giving up, Chinese officials studied what went wrong and concluded they needed to tweak the design and develop domestic supply chains.
“What the Chinese did was really smart,” said James Krellenstein, the chief executive of Alva Energy, a nuclear consultancy. “They said, we’re going to pause for a few years and incorporate every lesson learned.”
China is now building nine more copies of that reactor, known as the CAP1000, all on pace to be completed within five years at a drastically lower cost, an Energy Department report found.
At the Haiyang nuclear power plant, China keeps building
Nuclear proponents in the United States sometimes argue that overly strict safety regulations drive up costs.
China’s safety requirements are similar. But in China the approval process is more predictable, and opponents have fewer ways to challenge a project. Most reactors in China break ground weeks after receiving final approval from the safety regulator, according to research by Ms. Jiang. In the United States, by contrast, projects often need additional permits from state governments that can take months or years.
“China is practiced at building really big things, everything from dams to highways to high speed rail, and those project management skills are transferable,” said David Fishman, a power sector consultant at Lantau Group, a consulting firm.
As China, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, seeks to curb pollution, it is counting on nuclear power to play an important role.
Solar and wind power are growing fast and account for most of China’s clean electricity, but the country also burns enormous amounts of coal to supply power when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing. More nuclear power could help backstop renewables and displace coal.
China’s nuclear expansion still faces hurdles. One of China’s plants suffered a smaller radioactive leak in 2021, and a bigger accident could trigger a public backlash. The country is still figuring out where to bury its nuclear waste, and some cities have seen impassioned protests over plans for waste reprocessing plants. Beijing has also blocked new reactors in much of China’s interior over concerns about their water use. If that moratorium persists, it could limit the industry’s growth.
For now, though, the country is barreling ahead, with plans to build hundreds of reactors by midcentury.
Can the U.S. catch up?
In the United States, nuclear power is one of the rare types of energy that has support from Republican and Democratic politicians alike, especially as demand for electricity rises. Even environmentalists like Al Gore who once fretted about catastrophic accidents and radioactive waste are warming to the technology.
Yet the U.S. is pursuing a starkly different path to nuclear expansion, one that leans more heavily on private innovation than government backing.
Dozens of start-ups are working on a new generation of smaller reactors meant to be cheaper than the hulking plants of old. Tech companies like Google, Amazon and OpenAI are pouring billions into nuclear start-ups like Kairos Power, X-Energy and Oklo to help power their data centers for artificial intelligence. Early projects are underway in Wyoming, Texas and Tennessee, though few, if any, new reactors are expected before the 2030s.
The Trump administration wants to accelerate this work by reducing regulations at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which certifies the safety of reactors before they are built. The agency’s critics say it has become too hidebound to handle advanced reactors that are less prone to meltdowns.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the administration is betting that the private capital flowing into nuclear projects will spark American ingenuity and catapult the U.S. ahead of China. “Entrepreneurial capitalist competition is where the U.S. thrives, and I think it’s an advantage over China,” he said in an interview.
Yet some worry that the United States is betting too heavily on technological breakthroughs instead of focusing on the financing, skills and infrastructure needed to build plants, as China has. The U.S., for instance, has lost almost all of its heavy forging capacity to make large reactor components. A new generation of advanced reactors could also take years to perfect, leaving America behind.
“You look at the number of designs, particularly in the U.S., you think, Oh, God, help us,” said Philip Andrews-Speed, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “I would think narrowing down is the sensible thing to do.”
While the Trump administration has moved to speed up nuclear permitting and increase domestic supplies of nuclear fuel, some important government tools for advancing new reactors, such as the Energy Department’s loan office, have been hampered by staffing cuts. Efforts to slash safety regulations could be contentious. There is also a risk that interest by tech giants could fizzle if the A.I. boom slows.
“There’s no reason the United States couldn’t expand nuclear power,” said Stephen Ezell, vice president for global innovation policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. “But are we just going to see a few small reactors power a few data centers, or are we going to see a serious whole government approach to bring back nuclear power as an essential source of electricity?”
A race to power the world
China’s fast-paced nuclear program is a prelude to a larger goal: dominating the global market. Chinese companies have already built six reactors in Pakistan and plan to export many more.
At the same time, China is working to surpass the United States in technological innovation. China has built what it calls the world’s first “fourth generation” reactor, a gas-cooled model that can provide heat and steam for heavy industry in addition to electricity. The Chinese are also pursuing technologies that use less uranium, such as thorium reactors, or recycle spent nuclear fuel. It’s a recognition that China doesn’t have enough domestic uranium for a massive build-out of traditional reactors.
Even if U.S. companies and labs remain at the forefront of innovation, one recent report warned that China was 10 to 15 years ahead of the United States in its ability to deploy next-generation reactors widely.
It’s a familiar story: The United States invented solar panels and batteries, only to watch as China scaled those technologies and now controls global markets.
“Maybe we can convince some of our allies not to buy Chinese reactors, but there are going to be plenty of other countries out there with growing energy demands,” said Paul Saunders, president of the Center for National Interest, a conservative-leaning think tank. “And if America isn’t ready, we won’t be able to compete.”
Science
Californians bought a record number of EVs before Trump budget cuts
Californians purchased a record number of zero-emission and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the third quarter of 2025, seizing their final opportunity to claim federal tax incentives before they were eliminated under President Trump’s sweeping budget cuts.
California residents bought more than 124,700 zero-emission vehicles or plug-in hybrids from July 1 to Sept. 30, marking the highest quarterly sales of clean vehicles since the state began tracking those numbers in 2008, according to the California Energy Commission. Electric vehicles and long-range hybrids made up 29% of new car sales statewide, capturing the largest quarterly market share in that 17-year span.
Consumers rushed to dealerships to take advantage of expiring, Biden-era tax credits, which offered up to $7,500 toward buying or leasing new zero-emission or hybrid vehicles. The incentives were vital in making EVs more affordable, given their batteries had primarily been made with expensive rare earth minerals, adding to sticker prices compared to gas-powered vehicles.
Now, for the first time in more than a decade, EVs must compete with their gas-powered cars without government-funded discounts. Although EV model lineups have expanded and prices have become more competitive, they remain $5,000 to 10,000 more expensive than comparable gas models, raising concerns about whether California will maintain momentum on its clean car goals.
“Most of the major brands that our dealers represent have one or more EVs that are available today — and many more in the pipeline,” said Brian Maas, president of the California New Car Dealers Assn., which represents over 1,200 franchised new-car dealers statewide. “So EVs are here to stay. The question is, at what sales level?”
The top-five counties with the highest share of EV sales were all in the Bay Area. Santa Clara, where nearly 47% of vehicle sales were zero-emission or hybrids, led the way. EV sales were also high in Orange and Los Angeles counties, accounting for nearly 36% and 31% of total car sales in the quarter, respectively.
Tesla remained California’s top-selling EV car brand by far.
But its third-quarter sales this year fell by nearly 7% compared to the same period in 2024. The big winners seem to have been Honda and Volkswagen, whose zero-emission sales in California more than doubled year-over-year; Audi wasn’t too far behind, with sales increasing 90%.
Ford also did well, posting record national sales of its electrified Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning — more than 15% of which were sold in California.
Maas said he anticipated “gangbuster” third-quarter sales with the impending demise federal tax credit, which allowed for a markdown of over 10% on most EV models. But many of these were “pulling-forward” sales — purchases by consumers who would have bought later, if not for the expiration of the federal incentives.
Many American car companies, including Ford and General Motors, have reported they are forecasting future declines in EV sales, citing federal policy changes.
Maas is among a chorus of industry experts who tend to agree.
“I think any economist expects there to be a dropoff,” he said. “It’s unclear how far that dropoff is going to be. Dealers have been trying to figure out what’s the natural level of EV sales without credits, and they’re trying to align their inventory to reflect that.”
Jessie Dosanjh, president of California Automotive Retailing Group, operates 20 dealerships in Northern California that sell numerous brands, including Chevrolet, Nissan, Acura, Toyota, Infinity, Ford and Hyundai. In August and September, Dosanjh said, dealership floors were more crowded than usual with customers seeking EVs. He advised his employees to inform customers, if they ever considered buying an EV or hybrid, they had a limited window to get the best price.
“It is absolutely a significant amount of money, especially when you look at the leases,” Dosanjh said. “It’s a couple hundred dollars [a month], on average.”
Even with the record quarterly sales, this year’s overall sales still slightly lag behind 2024.
A flurry of tariff announcements, mixed economic forecasts and political backlash against Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk contributed to slumping EV sales in the first half of the year, according to experts.
Environmental deregulation and disinvestment by the Trump administration has rocked market expectations for EV sales.
In addition to ending the federal tax credits, the Trump administration and federal lawmakers chose to not reauthorize a law that gave EV drivers nationally the privilege of driving alone in carpool lane, a popular perk to avoid congested highways. Trump also signed a law revoking federal waivers that allowed California to require automakers to sell increasing percentage of zero-emission vehicles to dealerships statewide, starting with 35% all new vehicles sales in 2026.
The regulatory changes has left dealers rethinking the makeup of the vehicles on their lots.
“If I were a betting person, I would say that EV demand will drop off several percentage points,” Dosanjh said. “To what extent, I don’t know. I don’t think that those consumers will necessarily not buy a car. I think they’ll see a shift to more hybrid vehicles that provide some of the benefits, as far as range and savings. And I also see consumers considering perhaps cheaper internal combustion engine vehicles.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom had previously vowed to restore a state program that provided up to $7,500 to buy clean cars, if Trump terminated federal tax credits. However, while taking questions from reporters at a Sept. 19 bill signing ceremony, Newsom walked back that commitment.
“We can’t make up for federal vandalism of those tax credits,” Newsom said. “But we can continue to make the unprecedented investments in infrastructure, which we’re doing.”
The governor’s press office did not respond to a request for comment on his change in stance.
California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta is suing the federal government to reinstate California’s zero-emission vehicle regulations. Meanwhile, state regulators are soliciting ideas for new ways to encourage EV adoption.
The good news is that the state’s innovative policy and environmentally minded residents have already made a lasting mark on the industry, said Adrian Martinez, director of the Right to Zero campaign at Earthjustice, a San Francisco-based environmental nonprofit.
California’s clean air policy is already largely responsible for pushing automakers to incorporate nearly 150 EV models into their lineups, a far cry from the 20 designs on the market in 2012. The state is nearing 2.5 million zero-emission and long-range hybrid vehicles sold since 2008, a testament to the demand for cleaner cars, Martinez said.
“There’s a lot of kind of gloom and doom out there, mainly because we’re seeing efforts at the federal level to put anchors on our electric vehicle industry in this country,” Martinez said. “But there’s been a lot of money and effort and time spent to develop electric vehicle markets. And it’d be crazy for these companies to just bow down to these federal pressures and stop selling these cars which consumers want.”
Maas, the president of the California car dealership association, largely agreed. EVs have become a fixture in California. But car dealers will learn more about how self-sufficient they can be in the coming months.
“I think the long-term future is EVs will continue to sell well, especially in a state like California,” he said, “but perhaps not as well as some had originally hoped.”
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