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California expected to suffer from a sluggish economy through early next year

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California expected to suffer from a sluggish economy through early next year

California’s economy has split between higher-growth areas such as Los Angeles benefiting from venture capital spending — and other areas hard hit by tariffs, uncertainty and the government crackdown on immigrant labor.

That’s the finding of the winter UCLA Anderson Forecast released Wednesday, which predicts the state’s economy as a whole will muddle through the coming months before growth picks up in the latter half of next year.

“California has now entered another bifurcated economy phase, not one between East and West, but one between AI, Aerospace, and the like, and the rest of the economy,” wrote Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist with the forecast.

The report notes that in the first half of this year, nearly 70% of all U.S. venture capital spending came to California, while in the third quarter seven of the top 10 investments nationwide were here.

Los Angeles and Orange counties in particular are benefiting from investment in aerospace and defense firms, while the Bay Area has been the recipient of artificial intelligence investments, Nickelsburg said in an interview.

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However, Silicon Valley itself has experienced job losses, the report notes, amid a weakening demand for software engineers who code — a dynamic The Times has reported on as big tech firms cut payroll while they sharply raise their investments in AI.

It was initially estimated that AI-related capital expenditures would total $250 billion this year, but already the amount has topped $400 billion, the report noted.

Another positive indicator has been an increase in air cargo at state airports, reversing a decline that began early in the pandemic, the report said.

At the same time, the Trump administration’s immigration policies have begun to dampen employment in California counties with a higher concentration of jobs in agriculture, construction as well as leisure and hospitality — with the San Joaquin Valley experiencing the largest number of job losses.

This is consistent with past episodes of restrictive immigration policies — deportations in 1930s under President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, in the 1950s under President Eisenhower and last decade through the Secure Communities program under President Obama, the report said.

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“So what we do know from past data is that communities that see a significant loss of population due to immigration policy are communities where the unemployment rate of those who are left tend to go up, housing prices go down, income goes down,” Nickelsburg said.

Another drag on the state’s economy has been the housing market, which has been buffeted by deportations that will reduce the number of workers skilled in drywall, flooring, roofing and other specialities. At the same time, tariffs have raised the cost of building supplies from China, Mexico and Canada.

“That the home construction sector is in the doldrums is evidenced by the continuation of depression level sales volume for single-family detached housing and continued increases in median prices,” the report said.

Overall, the state lost 21,200 payroll jobs in the first eight months of the year, the first sustained decline since the pandemic. It left the state with a 5.5% unemployment rate in August, more than a percentage point higher than the nation. The rate has stayed above 5% for more than 19 consecutive months.

The forecast predicts that California’s unemployment rate will peak at 5.9% early next year but average at 5.5% before dropping to an average of 4.6% in 2027. Employment growth is expected to be 0.7% next year and 2% in 2027. Real personal income is similarly expected to rise just 1.1% next year before picking up to 2.6% in 2027.

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The national forecast also notes that the economy is benefiting from investment in AI and rising income among wealthy households, even as tariffs, a weak jobs market and uncertain federal policies weigh on it.

That is expected to change early next year when Trump’s One Big Beautiful tax-and-spending bill stimulates growth — though the fluctuating policies and delays in economic data due to the federal shutdown make that uncertain.

“We continue to live in an era of elevated economic uncertainty regarding the economic trajectory,” the national report concludes.

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Helped by ‘Stranger Things’ finale, Netflix lands strong fourth quarter

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Helped by ‘Stranger Things’ finale, Netflix lands strong fourth quarter

Netflix reported a strong finish to its fiscal year Tuesday, with revenue climbing 18% in the fourth quarter to just over $12 billion compared with a year ago.

The streaming giant’s profits during the same period reached $2.4 billion, or 56 cents a share, up from $1.87 billion, or 43 cents a share, a year earlier, the company reported.

The results were slightly ahead of Wall Street estimates and driven by growth in the company’s advertising business, higher prices and increases in paid memberships, which surpassed the 325-million mark, Netflix said in a letter to shareholders.

Netflix said total engagement on its platform, meaning the amount of time its users spent watching content, rose 2% in the second half of the year.

The company got a big boost in the quarter from the final season of its hit series “Stranger Things,” among other popular shows, documentaries and movies, including Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” and “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery.”

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Netflix said “KPop Demon Hunters” broke records as its most-watched movie with 482 million views in the last half of 2025. Users wanted to sing along with “KPop Demon Hunters Lyric Videos,” which scored 32 million views.

The streamer’s top series was the second season of “Wednesday,” which pulled in 124 million views. The first season of the series also popped with 47 million more.

For the year, the Los Gatos-based company reported revenue of $45.2 billion, up 16% from 2024.

The latest earnings report follows news earlier Tuesday that Netflix modified its offer to buy Warner Bros. Discovery, making it an all-cash bid. The companies agreed on the deal, valued at $82.7 billion, in December.

The agreement between the most successful streaming platform and the storied movie studio behind “Casablanca,” Harry Potter and “Batman” has its share of supporters and detractors. Netflix shares have been on a decline since the December announcement.

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“Investors will ponder whether Netflix becoming HBO faster than HBO became Netflix serves their interest,” said Emarketer senior analyst Ross Benes. “So far, markets have not responded kindly to the acquisition.”

Rival bidder Paramount has made clear it will continue its hostile takeover attempt for Warner Bros., despite some setbacks. It has given the company’s investors a Jan. 21 deadline to tender their shares. It remains to be seen whether Paramount opts to extend that deadline.

Warner Bros. has rejected Paramount’s overtures multiple times in recent months, while expressing its preference for its deal with Netflix.

The results were released after markets closed. Netflix shares ended the day at $87.05, down 1% on Tuesday.

Times staff writer Meg James contributed to this report.

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Netflix amends Warner Bros. deal to all cash in bidding war

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Netflix amends Warner Bros. deal to all cash in bidding war

Netflix has amended its proposed $72-billion purchase of Warner Bros. and HBO, converting it to an all-cash offer in hopes of defusing criticisms from rival bidder, David Ellison’s Paramount.

Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery approved the change Monday, according to a regulatory filing. Warner board members previously had accepted Netflix’s $27.75-a-share cash-and-stock proposal for Warner’s Burbank studios and HBO streaming operations.

Paramount has complained that its $30-per-share offer for the entire company was higher, and thus, should be the winning bid. Paramount is appealing directly to Warner stockholders, asking them to sell their shares to Paramount by Wednesday.

Netflix stopped short of raising its bid above $27.75 a share, but the Los Gatos streaming giant agreed to pay the full amount in cash should it ultimately win Warner’s legendary studios behind such blockbusters as “Batman,” “The Matrix” and “The Big Bang Theory.” Netflix is not interested in Warner Bros. basic cable channels, which are scheduled to be spun off into a separate company.

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Netflix said the change “simplifies the transaction structure, provides greater certainty of value for WBD stockholders, and accelerates the path to a WBD stockholder vote.”

The move was prompted, in part, because Netflix’s stock price has taken a major hit, eroding value in its proposal for Warner Bros.

The new terms neutralize one of Paramount’s primary criticisms: that the stock portion of the Netflix offer makes its bid inferior. Netflix’s shares have lost 29% since its pursuit of Warner Bros. came to light. Paramount shares have also declined about 29% over that time.

Warner Bros. Discovery board members have stuck with Netflix’s proposal — valued at $82.7-billion, including some debt — despite persistent overtures by Ellison’s Paramount.

Warner Bros.’ board “continues to support and unanimously recommend our transaction, and we are confident that it will deliver the best outcome for stockholders, consumers, creators and the broader entertainment community,” Ted Sarandos, co-CEO of Netflix, said in a statement Tuesday.

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Warner Bros. Discovery said it would schedule a shareholder meeting. The vote could be held in April.

If the Netflix deal is approved, Warner shareholders would also receive stock in the new company, Discovery Global, which will be made up of Warner’s cable channels, including CNN, TBS, HGTV and Food Network. The spinoff is expected to be completed this summer, but the value of the channels is in doubt, giving Paramount ammunition to claim that its $30-a-share tender offer for the entire company was more lucrative.

Paramount, which has been pursuing the prized assets since September, has sued Warner in Delaware courts to obtain information about how Warner board members came up with a value for the cable channels.

Last week, a Delaware judge refused Paramount’s request for expedited proceedings.

On Tuesday, Warner Bros. separately addressed that Paramount criticism by outlining how it values its cable networks.

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Warner Bros.’ advisors value the cable networks from as little as 72 cents a share to as much as $6.86 a share, according to the filing. Paramount has claimed those properties have no value even though cable networks account for most of Paramount’s own sales and profit.

The new company, Discovery Global, would have $17 billion of debt as of June 30, 2026. That would decrease to $16.1 billion by the end of the year. Warner and Netflix also tweaked the agreement so that Discovery Global will have $260 million less debt than initially planned as a result of stronger-than-expected cash flow last year.

The filing projects Discovery Global’s 2026 revenue would reach $16.9 billion and adjusted earnings of $5.4 billion before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

In Tuesday’s announcement, Netflix touted its “strong cash flow generation,” which it said supported the revised all-cash transaction “while preserving a healthy balance sheet and flexibility to capitalize on future strategic priorities.”

Warner Bros. Discovery board members have cited Paramount’s highly leveraged proposal as a weak point, giving it another reason to award the company to the stronger firm, Netflix.

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Paramount would need to come up with more than $94 billion in equity and debt to finance the deal.

The battle for Warner Bros. is one of the biggest media deals in the last decade and is expected to reshape the entertainment industry. Netflix emerged as a surprise suitor, entering the fray after Warner Bros. put itself up for sale in October.

Netflix has turned to Wall Street banks to help finance its deal. The company now has $42.2 billion of bridge loans in place, according to a filing Tuesday, a type of facility that is usually replaced with permanent debt like corporate bonds.

Netflix is scheduled to report fourth-quarter financial results on Tuesday after markets close.

Bloomberg News contributed to this report.

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Video: Has Trump Delivered on His Economic Promises?

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Video: Has Trump Delivered on His Economic Promises?

new video loaded: Has Trump Delivered on His Economic Promises?

President Trump made a number of economic promises on the campaign trail. Now that we’re one year into the Trump administration, our chief economics correspondent, Ben Casselman, looks at key economic data to see what Trump was able to accomplish, and where he has so far failed to deliver what he promised.

By Ben Casselman, Alexandra Ostasiewicz, Thomas Vollkommer and Joey Sendaydiego

January 19, 2026

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