Science
Could wildfire smoke become America’s leading climate health threat by 2050?
In one of the most comprehensive pictures yet of the growing health risks associated with wildfire smoke, new research suggests ash and soot from burning wildlands has caused more than 41,000 excess deaths annually from 2011 to 2020.
By 2050, as global warming makes large swaths of North America hotter and drier, the annual death toll from smoke could reach between 68,000 and 71,000, without stronger preventive and public health measures.
“The numbers are very big, and it definitely surprised us,” said Minghao Qiu, lead author and assistant professor at Stony Brook University. “We find that wildfire smoke is already killing a lot of people.”
During the 2020 wildfire season, the worst in California’s modern history, wildfires scorched more than 4.2 million acres statewide.
Many Californians, locked down during the COVID-19 pandemic, encountered choking air when they ventured outside. Bay Area residents remember the sickly orange sky they woke up to five years ago this month. The jet streams carried pollution thousands of miles east to the Atlantic Coast.
In the span studied, millions of people were exposed to unhealthful levels of air pollution. When inhaled, this microscopic pollution not only aggravates people’s lungs, it also enters the bloodstream, provoking inflammation that can induce heart attacks and stroke.
For years, researchers have struggled to quantify the danger the smoke poses. In the paper published in Nature, they report it’s far greater than public health officials may have recognized.
Yet most climate assessments “don’t often include wildfire smoke as a part of the climate-related damages. And it turns out, by our calculation, this is one of the most important climate impacts in the U.S.”
California, in particular, is projected to see the largest increase in smoke-related mortality, with over 5,000 excess deaths annually. The state’s vast forests and perennially dry climate make it the most fire-prone state in the nation. With 39 million residents, many Californians find themselves downwind.
The study also estimates a higher number of deaths than previous work in part because it projected mortality up to three years after a person has been exposed to wildfire smoke.
It also illustrates the dangers of smoke drifting from fire-prone regions into wetter parts of the country, a recent phenomenon that has garnered more attention with large Canadian wildfires contributing to hazy skies in the Midwest and East Coast in the last several years.
“Everybody is impacted across the U.S.,” Qui said. “Certainly the Western U.S. is more impacted. But the Eastern U.S. is by no means isolated from this problem.”
Elected officials and climate experts have called for reducing carbon emissions from burning fossils to prevent worsening effects from climate change. But because the concentration of greenhouse gases continues to climb each year and emissions are rising, not falling, some degree of warming is now unavoidable. Much of the carbon dioxide from a diesel tailpipe today, for example, will stay in the atmosphere for more than a century.
“Because of the inertia of the Earth’s [climate], even if we reduce the CO2 tomorrow, we are still going to see a considerable level of temperature increase,” Qiu said.
But that’s not to say nothing can be done. Qiu said it highlights the importance of adapting for a warmer planet, while working to reduce planet-warming emission.
Studies have shown air purifiers can drastically improve indoor air quality during wildfires. And states with a high fire risk, like California, should continue to fund prescribed burns, fires intentionally set by forestry professionals to clear away flammable vegetation and avoid larger wildfires.
“The tricky thing is, prescribed fires also generate smoke,” Qiu said. “So it’s going to be a trade-off. We are going to have some smoke, but the hope is it can reduce a much larger smoke burden due to [an actual] wildfire.”
Science
Scientists probe cosmic visitor from deep space, come up empty in search for alien life
Last summer, a NASA-funded asteroid impact warning system detected a mysterious object speeding through the solar system.
Scientists determined the object had entered the solar system from deep space, making it the third known object to have come from another star system.
NASA called it Comet 3I/ATLAS and said it didn’t pose a threat. But its discovery in July led to wild speculation that the object was a piece of extraterrestrial technology — maybe even an alien spacecraft.
The SETI Institute, a nonprofit that explores the origins of life and searches for extraterrestrial intelligence, said this week that a team of scientists had used a radio telescope to try to detect signals that could indicate extraterrestrial life on the comet.
But they found none.
“While observations strongly indicate that 3I/ATLAS is a natural object, interstellar visitors are also compelling technosignature targets because an artificial object — however unlikely — could represent detectable extraterrestrial technology and potentially provide the first evidence of life beyond Earth,” the institute said in a news release.
SETI scientists said they used the Allen Telescope Array at the Hat Creek Radio Observatory in Northern California to scan the object for seven hours, covering a spectrum of 1 to 9 gigahertz.
“This broad range allows scientists to search for narrowband radio signals, which are not produced in nature and would be evidence of technology,” the news release said.
The institute said the team identified nearly 74 million narrowband signals, but ultimately traced them back to technology on the Earth’s surface or orbiting satellites.
“The results from 3I/ATLAS show how realistic it is to detect a signal with the technology we have today,” said Valeria Garcia Lopez, one of scientists on the SETI team. “That is why it is important to keep searching for technosignatures, even from objects we might not expect to have signals.”
The institute said the researchers also can learn more about the natural properties of interstellar objects as they travel through our solar system.
“As more interstellar objects are discovered, each offers a new opportunity to probe the cosmos for technosignatures, advancing our understanding of both natural and possible technological phenomena beyond our Solar System,” the SETI statement said.
Science
Emergency room visits during heat waves available to the public in ‘near-real time’ in L.A. County
For the first time, Los Angeles County residents can see how many people are ending up in emergency rooms, their bodies pushed past the limit, during heat waves.
The county Department of Public Health says its new Heat-Related Illness and Mortality Dashboard will provide heat illness counts in “near real time,” which means weekly. That might seem like a lag, but until now the data were only provided upon request and in ad hoc reports.
Heat is the leading cause of weather-related death in the United States and heat waves are only getting more frequent and intense as the climate changes.
Public health experts called the tracker a meaningful step toward assessing how well county programs are addressing heat risks.
“It’s showing the county’s commitment to reducing the burden of heat on people’s health,” said David Eisenman, director of UCLA’s Center for Public Health and Disasters. “As the county puts more resources into that, this is a metric that allows the public to judge the effectiveness of the work.”
“There’s a handful of other places that also do this, but they’re all relatively new,” said Bharat Venkat, director of the UCLA Heat Lab, noting as examples Imperial and Riverside counties in California, Harris County in Texas and Maricopa County in Arizona. “It is very much welcome.”
The tracker takes heat illness data from patient complaints and doctor diagnoses provided by a countywide monitoring project that was previously available only to public health officials. The website says that what it provides is an undercount. The records often fail to count people when heat exacerbates more obvious health problems.
“Heat piggybacks off of preexisting health conditions,” Venkat said. “Say you go to the ER and you’re experiencing an intense psychotic episode, or a heart attack or a stroke. It’s very likely that the doctor is going to diagnose that as a psychotic episode, heart attack or stroke, and less likely that they’ll note that heat is contributing to that.”
Heat-related deaths are counted from death certificates, which present similar issues for undercounting. Those numbers will be reported monthly on the dashboard.
L.A. County has a recently approved heat action plan that aims to educate the public and reduce indoor and outdoor temperatures with strategies such as opting for shade and air conditioning.
The new tracker breaks down daily heat-related emergency room visits and deaths by age group, geography, and race and ethnicity.
It shows that people over 65 are more vulnerable to heat illness. For Black residents, heat is disproportionately fatal. And people in the San Fernando, San Gabriel, and Antelope valleys see the most heat-related emergency room visits.
Kelly Turner, a professor of urban planning at UCLA, stressed that heat sickness tracks closely with social inequality and is preventable.
“A heat death or heat illness is dependent on who you are and what assets you have,” Turner said. “If you have air conditioning or not, if you work outside or you don’t, all of those factors factor in.”
She noted that there is more risk in the San Fernando and San Gabriel valleys because of the combination of hotter days and more people who are unprotected. “When you map those two things on top of each other, you get a hot spot of vulnerability,” she said.
California already has a tool called CalHeatScore that uses historical hospital records and temperatures to forecast risk for different ZIP Codes in the state during heat events.
Public health officials hope to use the new dashboard to target messaging and public outreach when extreme heat strikes.
“If we’re having an extended heat event we can show that, ‘Hey, we’re having heat impacts’ as they’re happening,” said Dr. Nicole Quick, chief science officer at the L.A. County Department of Public Health.
Venkat said he would like to see the tool become more robust, in line with Maricopa County’s dashboard, widely viewed as the current gold standard for heat illness and mortality tracking. He said the Arizona county, which includes Phoenix, dives deeper into health records and conditions surrounding hospitalizations and deaths to better reflect the role of heat.
“They do scene investigations and send someone out to take notes about where the body was found,” Venkat said. “What was going on? Did they have air conditioning? Were they outside? Did they have access to water? What medications were they taking? All those things provide important context.”
Eisenman said he would like to see the county train physicians on recording heat-related illness, as it has been “clear for a long time” that doctors don’t make the diagnosis enough.
“It would have to be more than just a handout or a few slides. You’d really have to have each institution make some effort to change physicians’ behaviors,” Eisenman said. He added that it probably hasn’t been done because of the costs involved.
Science
More middle-class Californians cancel health coverage after losing federal aid
Facing higher premiums and the loss of federal subsidies, 374,000 people with health insurance from the state marketplace known as Covered California canceled their coverage in the first three months of the year, according to government statistics.
The cancellations amount to 19% of those who had renewed their policies on the state marketplace during open enrollment, state officials said. Those cancellations are higher than in the past three years when they ranged from 13% to 15% of those who renewed.
Jessica Altman, executive director of Covered California, attributed the jump in cancellations to the expiration of enhanced federal subsidies that caused the cost of a plan to leap for most middle-class Californians.
“We expect coverage losses to increase through the year,” she said.
Overall, Covered California had 1.8 million enrollees in February, down from 1.94 million the year before — a decline of 7%.
Altman said monthly enrollment numbers are delayed because consumers have a three-month grace period to resume their premium payments before the insurance carriers end their coverage for nonpayment.
This year, many middle-class Californians who depend on the state-run insurance marketplace created under the Affordable Care Act faced annual costs that were hundreds of dollars higher than last year because of the end of enhanced federal subsidies that began during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2021, Congress voted to temporarily boost the amount of subsidies Americans could receive for an ACA plan.
The law also expanded the program to families who had more money. Before that 2021 vote, only Americans with incomes below 400% of the federal poverty level — currently $62,600 a year for a single person or $128,600 for a family of four — were eligible for ACA subsidies. The 2021 vote eliminated the income cap and limited the cost of premiums for those higher-earning families to no more than 8.5% of their income.
On top of the loss of the enhanced federal subsidies, the average premium charged by insurers this year for a Covered California plan rose by more than 10% because of fast-rising medical costs.
The decline in ACA plan enrollees, however, has been greater in some other states. California has tried to keep people insured by using state tax money to fill in the gap for lower-income families.
This year, the state budgeted $190 million for premium subsidies for people with incomes of up to 165% of the federal poverty level.
In his budget plan, Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed spending $300 million on those state subsidies in 2027. That would expand the subsidies to enrollees with incomes up to 200% of the federal poverty level, or $31,920 for an individual or $66,000 for a family of four.
“We may actually see a number of Covered California enrollees paying less in 2027” because of the additional state subsidies, Altman said.
In May, Newsom also proposed in his budget that an additional $27 million in state money be used to help enrollees pay for the cost of gender-affirming care. That amount is an increase to the $30 million that he earlier proposed be spent this year and next to defray those costs for Covered California enrollees, according to state officials.
Last year, federal health officials enacted a rule that said the federally subsidized ACA plans could no longer cover gender-affirming care because it was no longer considered an “essential health benefit.”
Newsom’s proposed budget still faces debate in Sacramento and approval by the state Legislature.
The state marketplaces, created by the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, were meant to help those who don’t have access to an employer’s health insurance plan and have incomes too high to qualify for Medi-Cal, the government-paid insurance for the poor and disabled.
Because of the higher cost this year, more people are choosing the lower-priced Bronze plans. Those plans have higher co-pays and deductibles than the more expensive plans.
“We’re very concerned with the large shift to Bronze,” Altman said. “When you have higher cost-sharing, you’re more likely to defer care.”
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