Politics
Yes, the Polling Warning Signs Are Flashing Again
Forward of the final presidential election, we created a web site monitoring the most recent polls — internally, we known as it a “polling diary.” Regardless of a tricky polling cycle, one characteristic proved to be notably useful: a desk displaying what would occur if the 2020 polls have been as “fallacious” as they have been in 2016, when pollsters systematically underestimated Donald J. Trump’s power towards Hillary Clinton.
The desk proved eerily prescient. Right here’s what it seemed like on Election Day in 2020, plus a brand new column with the ultimate end result. As you may see, the ultimate outcomes have been so much just like the ballot estimates “with 2016-like ballot error.”
We created this ballot error desk for a cause: Early within the 2020 cycle, we seen that Joe Biden appeared to be outperforming Mrs. Clinton in the identical locations the place the polls overestimated her 4 years earlier. That sample didn’t essentially imply the polls could be fallacious — it may have simply mirrored Mr. Biden’s promised power amongst white working-class voters, for example — but it surely was a warning signal.
That warning signal is flashing once more: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the identical locations the place the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.
The State of the 2022 Midterm Elections
With the primaries winding down, each events are beginning to shift their focus to the overall election on Nov. 8.
Wisconsin is an effective instance. On paper, the Republican senator Ron Johnson must be favored to win re-election. The FiveThirtyEight fundamentals index, for example, makes him a two-point favourite. As an alternative, the polls have exceeded the wildest expectations of Democrats. The state’s gold-standard Marquette Legislation College survey even confirmed the Democrat Mandela Barnes main Mr. Johnson by seven share factors.
However on this case, good for Wisconsin Democrats is perhaps too good to be true. The state was floor zero for survey error in 2020, when pre-election polls proved to be too good to be true for Mr. Biden. Ultimately, the polls overestimated Mr. Biden by about eight share factors. Eerily sufficient, Mr. Barnes is faring higher than anticipated by an identical margin.
The Wisconsin information is only one instance of a broader sample throughout the battlegrounds: The extra the polls overestimated Mr. Biden final time, the higher Democrats appear to be doing relative to expectations. And conversely, Democrats are posting much less spectacular numbers in a few of the states the place the polls have been pretty correct two years in the past, like Georgia.
Should you put this relationship on a chart — Beware, my editors have permitted me to incorporate considerably difficult scatterplots every now and then — you see a constant hyperlink between Democratic power as we speak and polling error two years in the past.
It raises the likelihood that the obvious Democratic power in Wisconsin and elsewhere is a mirage — an artifact of persistent and unaddressed biases in survey analysis.
If the polls are fallacious but once more, it is not going to be exhausting to clarify. Most pollsters haven’t made vital methodological modifications because the final election. The most important polling neighborhood autopsy declared that it was “unimaginable” to definitively verify what went fallacious within the 2020 election.
The sample of Democratic power isn’t the one signal that the polls may nonetheless be off in comparable methods. For the reason that Supreme Courtroom’s Dobbs resolution on abortion, some pollsters have stated they’re seeing the acquainted indicators of nonresponse bias — when individuals who don’t reply to a ballot are meaningfully totally different from those that take part — creeping again into their surveys.
Brian Stryker, a associate at Influence Analysis (Mr. Biden is a shopper), advised me that his polling agency was getting “a ton of Democratic responses” in latest surveys, particularly in “the acquainted locations” the place the polls have erred in latest cycles.
None of this implies the polls are destined to be as fallacious as they have been in 2020. A few of the polling challenges in 2020 may need since subsided, such because the higher chance that liberals have been at residence (and thus extra prone to take polls) through the pandemic. And traditionally, it has been exhausting to anticipate polling error just by wanting on the error from the earlier cycle. For instance, the polls in 2018 weren’t so dangerous.
Some pollsters are making efforts to take care of the problem. Mr. Stryker stated his agency was “proscribing the variety of Democratic main voters, early voters and different super-engaged Democrats” of their surveys. The New York Instances/Siena School polls take comparable steps.
However the sample is value taking significantly after what occurred two years in the past.
With that in thoughts, right here’s an replace of the desk from 2020, with the polling averages in 9 states the Prepare dinner Political Report describes as aggressive. If the polls are simply as fallacious as they have been in 2020, the race for the Senate seems to be very totally different.
The obvious Democratic edge in Senate races in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio would evaporate. To take the chamber, Republicans would want any two of Georgia, Arizona, Nevada or Pennsylvania. With Democrats as we speak nicely forward in Pennsylvania and Arizona, the combat for management of the chamber would come all the way down to very shut races in Nevada and Georgia.
No matter who was favored, the race for Senate management could be extraordinarily aggressive. Republican management of the Home would appear to be a foregone conclusion.
Politics
Video: Harris Blasts Trump Over Florida Abortion Ban
new video loaded: Harris Blasts Trump Over Florida Abortion Ban
transcript
transcript
Harris Blasts Trump Over Florida Abortion Ban
On the day that Florida began to enforce its six-week abortion ban, Vice President Kamala Harris delivered a searing attack on former President Donald J. Trump in Jacksonville, Fla., calling the measure “another Trump abortion ban.”
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Today, this very day, at the stroke of midnight, another Trump abortion ban went into effect here in Florida. As of this morning, four million women in this state woke up with fewer reproductive freedoms than they had last night. This is the new reality under a Trump abortion ban. The contrast in this election could not be more clear. Basically under Donald Trump, it would be fair game for women to be monitored and punished by the government. Whereas Joe Biden and I have a different view. We believe the government should never come between a woman and her doctor. [crowd cheering]
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Politics
2 West Virginia county commissioners removed after arrests for skipping public meetings
A three-judge panel ordered Wednesday that two county commissioners in West Virginia’s Eastern Panhandle be removed from office over a month after they were arrested for purposefully jilting their duties by skipping public meetings.
Circuit Court Judges Joseph K. Reeder of Putnam County, Jason A. Wharton of Wirt and Wood Counties and Perri Jo DeChristopher of Monongalia County wrote in a written decision that Jefferson County Commissioners Jennifer Krouse and Tricia Jackson “engaged in a pattern of conducted that amounted to the deliberate, willful and intentional refusal to perform their duties.”
Krouse and Jackson — who is also a Republican candidate for state auditor — were arrested in March and arraigned in Jefferson County Magistrate Court on 42 misdemeanor charges ranging from failure to perform official duties to conspiracy to commit a crime against the state. The petition to remove the two women from office was filed in November by the Jefferson County prosecutor’s office, and the three-judge panel heard the case in late March.
LONGTIME OHIO GOP CAMPAIGN TREASURER CHARGED WITH DEFRAUDING CLIENTS OF NEARLY $1 MILLION
Neither Krouse or Jackson responded to emails from The Associated Press requesting comment.
In a public Facebook post, Jackson said she is working with an attorney to appeal the decision and that she is still running for state auditor.
“An election has been overturned and the will of the people has been subverted,” Jackson wrote. “I have no intention of surrendering and plan to challenge this unjust decision every step of the way.”
The matter stems from seven missed meetings in late 2023, which State Police asserted in court documents related to the criminal case that Krouse and Jackson skipped to protest candidates selected to replace a commissioner who resigned. They felt the candidates were not “actual conservatives,” among other grievances, according to a criminal complaint.
The complaint asserted that between Sept. 21 and Nov. 16, 2023, Krouse and Jackson’s absences prevented the commission from conducting regular business, leaving it unable to fill 911 dispatch positions, approve a $150,000 grant for victim advocates in the prosecuting attorney’s office and a $50,000 grant for court house renovations.
The county lost out on the court house improvement grant because the commission needs to approve expenses over $5,000.
Both Jackson and Krouse continued to receive benefits and paychecks despite the missed meetings. They began returning after a Jefferson County Circuit Court order.
Krouse took office in January 2023, and Jackson in 2021.
Politics
Drew Barrymore urged VP Kamala Harris to be 'Mamala of the country.' The internet recoiled
Drew Barrymore pleaded with Vice President Kamala Harris earlier this week for the politician to be a mother figure to the United States. That sentiment has since unleashed waves of backlash from multiple communities on social media.
In the Monday episode of “The Drew Barrymore Show,” the former child star welcomed the vice president to her single-couch set where — in front of an all-female audience — they shared their experiences of being part of a blended family. Harris, married to Douglas Emhoff, is the stepmother to Ella Emhoff and Cole Emhoff. However, she isn’t a fan of the “step-” title, she told Barrymore.
“We kinda don’t use the term ‘step,’” she explained, noting Disney’s often negative depictions of step-parents. “Their word for me is ‘Mamala.’ So they call me ‘Mamala.”
After Harris recalled growing her connection with her husband’s children from a previous union, Barrymore abruptly shifted the conversation. “I keep thinking in my head that we all need a mom,” she told her guest. “I’ve been thinking that we really all need a tremendous hug in the world right now.”
“But in our country, we need you to be ‘Mamala’ of the country,” Barrymore added, locking eyes with the vice president, who nodded her head.
Clips of Barrymore’s praise, and Harris’ subdued response, spread on social media, sparking memes and passionate reactions. By Tuesday, X (formerly Twitter) users saw Barrymore’s exchange as “cringe” material.
A representative for the “Drew Barrymore Show” did not immediately respond to The Times’ request for comment.
“That moment a crazy lady asks you to be momala of the country,” one X user captioned a photo of Harris pursing her lips during the viral moment.
“Noooo she did NOT ask her to be the nations momala that’s insane,” tweeted another user.
For other social media critics, Barrymore, who is white, pleading to Harris, who has Black and South Asian roots, was more than just cringe-inducing. Several users accused the “E.T.” and “Never Been Kissed” star of evoking the racist mammy stereotype: a Black woman, usually enslaved, tasked with taking care of white Americans and their children.
“‘Momala’ is INSANE. Not it’s up to a black woman to rock us in her bosom and heal our wounds,” wrote an X user.
Lawyer Ann Olivarius said Barrymore’s query also perpetuates the double standard that “being ‘caring’ is an add-on job requirement for women,” regardless of career and position.
Barrymore’s “Mamala” comment also elicited strong social media reactions from across the political spectrum. Conservative media personality Tomi Lahren slammed the Democrat VP tweeting, “Kamala will never be our ‘momala.’ Cringe. “ A supporter of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ripped Harris’ “faux ‘leadership’” and challenged her experience with motherhood.
“This is the most pandering, fake, set-up to try to get the country to like Kamala Harris by the Biden Admin,” wrote another X user.
Another X user panned Barrymore’s “Mamala” remark, alleging that Harris and the United States administration are “complicit” in Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas, which has sparked pro-Palestine demonstrations on college campuses worldwide.
During Monday’s episode, Barrymore ended her controversial segment by taking Harris’ hands in hers as the host spoke about women supporting each other. “We need a great protector,” she told Harris.
The vice president responded with a few lines about the “true measure” of strength and power.
“If you ever want some indication, some objective indication of your individual power, see what you can do to help other people,” she said.
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