Sports
What we learned in MLB's first month of the season, an unpredictable and electric April
So what do you know. We made it through April. What a bizarre month.
Taylor Ward outhomered a guy who hit 54 homers last year (Matt Olson). Maikel Garcia had more extra-base hits than Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Ronel Blanco has been the best starting pitcher on the Astros. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner (Blake Snell) has been the worst starting pitcher on the Giants.
Josh Haderβs ERA is over 6.00. Brennan Bernardinoβs ERA is under 1.00.
Why do we even pay attention to this stuff?
You think LeBron James has ever had 25 games like Aaron Judgeβs first 25 games (.191/.319/.383 slash line)? Itβs not even possible β not in that sport. But baseball β well, itβs not that sport.
βItβs just a different sport,β one American League executive was saying the other day. βBut thatβs why I love our game β because itβs so unpredictable.β
Yeah, it can be a wacky ride on the Tilt-A-Whirl, all right. So it can be difficult to know what to make of baseball in April. But hey, itβs your lucky day. Weβre here to help you make sense of it β with your favorite column and ours: What We Learned in April.
1. Baseball is hard
Paul Goldschmidt, just two years removed from an MVP season, is one of the many big-name players off to poor starts. (Rick Scuteri / USA Today)
We shouldnβt need a reminder of this. But baseball is hard.
Ask Aaron Judge (see above). Ask Paul Goldschmidt (four extra-base hits in April). Ask Julio RodrΓguez (three extra-base hits all month). Ask Corbin Carroll (slugging .246 this season). Ask Alex Bregman (hitting .216, with no homers until his last game of the month).
But not just them. Ask some of the biggest shooting-star prospects in baseball.
βI think of other names,β said another exec, who spends a lot of time on scouting and player development. βLike Jackson Holliday (just sent down by the Orioles after going 2-for-34). Like Darell Hernaiz (whoβs at .174/.264/.174Β for the Aβs). Like Victor Scott II (who was 5-for-59 for the Cardinals before being demoted). Look at those three. Look at what theyβve done. Theyβve hit worse than pitchers.β
There are many more names, of course. Just remember those names are guys who have been great at baseball all their lives. But this April, they havenβt been that great. And mostly, it all comes down to this:
Baseball is hard. Harder than ever. As velocities creep up. As pitch shapes are scientifically designed in the lab to devour bats. As AI-generated data says:Β Throw it there, and this dude canβt hit it.
βYou know, itβs so rare that the best players play their best for 162 games in 186 days β from day one,β said one of the execs quoted above. βThatβs just not how it works.β
But why should that stop us from overreacting when we look at stars hitting .177 on April 29? Overreacting to April is a beautiful baseball tradition. So donβt make us stop. Itβs what we do best. But when you hear us do that, feel free to hit us with those three magic words:Β Baseball is hard.Β Itβs true!
2. Current state of the Astrosβ dynasty: Rickety
The Houston Astros have 10 wins all season. They used to think nine wins was a disappointing postseason. But here they are, 10-19 after 29 games. So theyβre officially in the danger zone. Not just this year, but as they return to Earthβs orbit in the seasons beyond this year.
Before they journeyed to Mexico last weekend and bludgeoned the cliff-diving Rockies twice, the Astros were just 7-19. Did you know only one team in history has started a season 7-19 or worse and made it to the postseason? And that team β the 1914 βMiracleβ Braves β pulled off that fabled miracle 110 years ago.
So the canyon these Astros have dug for themselves is deep β so deep that both the history and the math say theyβre a really bad bet to recover.
Hereβs the history: Forget the 7-19 part. You can even forget all the years before the wild-card era (1995-present). In this era, since 1995, only three teams have been 12 games under at any point in the season and survived to play baseball in October. Just one team β the 2005 Astros β has done that after falling more thanΒ 12 games under.
Now hereβs the math: The ALβsΒ lowestΒ wild-card seed last year won 89 games. To get to 89 wins, the Astros would have to go 79-54 from here. So they would have to play like a 96-win team the rest of the way. Which means, said one exec, βthat even if they play like a 90-win team, theyβll win 84 games. So itβs a huge hole. Itβs a massive hole.β
Yet another exec we spoke with said, matter-of-factly: βIβm not a betting man, but if I were betting a buck, Iβd bet theyβll make the playoffs β still.β
Wait. What about what history tells us about teams that start the way these Astros started? βThose teams didnβt have the projections or the expectations that this team has,β he said. Plus six games out in the division, with 133 to play, doesnβt seem out of the reach of a roster like this, he added.
Maybe heβs right. Maybe that hole isnβt as massive as it looks. But what if it is? That possibility has rival front offices already wondering what a trade deadline Astros sell-off might look like.
They have no trouble imagining Justin Verlander, Alex Bregman and Ryan Pressly (all prospective 2024 free agents) getting dealt. But what about Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez β both free agents after 2025?
Itβs a fascinating topic β¦ except for one thing. Remember owner Jim Craneβs etched-in-stone quote after extending Jose Altuve a couple of months ago: βWhile Iβm here, the window (to win) will never close.β
We reminded the execs we polled of Craneβs words. They pointed at his teamβs declining farm system and already hefty payroll. So can the Astros keep that window open indefinitely? Really?
βGood luck with that,β one AL exec said.
GO DEEPER
What’s next for JosΓ© Abreu and the Astros after option agreement?
3. Spring training is underrated
Blake Snell exits his third start for the Giants after allowing five runs in 4 2/3 innings. (John Hefti / USA Today)
Letβs check in on βthe Boras Five.β That would be Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and J.D. Martinez β the five prominent Scott Boras clients who waited out the market all winter and didnβt find a team until March.
Snell: 0-3, 11.57 ERA after three starts, just went on the injured list with an adductor strain
Chapman: .222/.266/.385, similar to his numbers from May of last year
Bellinger: .226/.320/.440, just went on the IL with fractured ribs
Montgomery: 1-1, 2.70 after two starts, even beat Snell in one of those
Martinez: Injured his back during extended spring training, only debuted Friday
Those five will collect a combined $101.37 million this season. Thereβs plenty of time for their play to match that money. But first, this word from our imaginary sponsors:
Spring training is more meaningful than it sometimes appears.
Just ask the guys who miss it β and the front-office minds who roll the dice and sign those guys anyway.
βHow many times,β mused an NL exec, βhave we seen guys try to hold out, then sign late, and the agent the whole time is saying βOh, heβs fine. Iβve got him throwing.β And itβs not the same. I donβt know what the percentage is, but I bet itβs high, that somewhere early in the season, it bites them, and they end up being injured and missing more time. Then you kick yourself as a GM, going: βI knew better than this.ββ
Well, it turns out MLB Networkβs Research Department has looked into that. They furnished us with a list of notable recent free agents who didnβt sign until March. Then we looked at how April went for the biggest names on that list.
The Pitchers
| PITCHER | DATE SIGNEDΒ | APRIL |
|---|---|---|
|
Lance Lynn, 2018Β |
March 12 |
0-3, 8.37 ERA |
|
Jake Arrieta, 2018 |
March 12Β Β |
3-1, 3.49 ERA |
|
Greg Holland, 2018 |
March 31 |
0-1, 7.36 ERA, 0 saves |
The Hitters
| HITTERΒ | DATE SIGNED | APRIL |
|---|---|---|
|
Carlos Correa, 2022 |
March 22 |
.243/.309/.324, 1 HR |
|
Trevor Story, 2022Β Β |
March 23Β |
.224/.292/.299, 0 HR |
|
Nick Castellanos, 2022 |
March 23Β |
.300/.374/.475, 3 HR |
A few words about that group:
A) Not much good came out of the 2022 lockout, but at least it gave us a handy database of free agents who signed really late.
B) none of those three pitchers went on to have the kind of season they were signed to have β but especially Holland, who had led the NL in saves the year before. In his very first outing for the Cardinals, nine days after signing, he walked four in one-third of an inning and walked in the winning run. Four months, 32 outings and a 7.92 ERA later, he was released. So that went well!
Look, this is a small sample. We donβt know how it will apply to the Boras Five. But is spring training really meaningless? Not if youβre a free agent, said one exec we surveyed.
βThe routine, the process of getting ready for a major-league season, canβt just happen in two weeks,β he said. βItβs everything. Itβs the preparation on the field. Itβs getting settled with new surroundings and new environments, new coaches, new teammates. Itβs getting an apartment or a place to live.
βThereβs a lot of things you have to handle when you sign late. And baseball is just one of those things.β
4. But hereβs the good news for Scott Boras: Juan Soto
Will Juan Soto land a $500 million deal this winter? Things are looking up. (Wendell Cruz / USA Today)
In last yearβs first edition of the What We Learned column, we made this regrettable pronouncement:Β Juan Soto should have taken the Nationalsβ money!
Ehhhh, have we mentioned that overreacting to April is one of those things weβre best at?
Juan Soto, San Diego Padre, didnβt have the look of a generational talent. But Juan Soto, New York Yankee? That guy might have a future.
In his first 30 games in The Pinstripes, Soto bombed seven homers and reached base 60 times. Look at all the players in history who have done that in their first 30 games as a Yankee:
Juan Soto, 2024
(donβt go looking for the other names β¦ heβs it!)
βWhat happened in San Diego did not surprise me,β said one exec who has known Soto for years, βbecause I think it shocked the hell out of him that the team that signed him, groomed him and developed him was the same team that traded him. And then the reality of that hit him. And he was on the other side of the country, as far away as he could be from the Dominican (Republic). So I wasnβt surprised. I really wasnβt.β
But now hereβs Soto, in the Bronx, leading the Yankees in average, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS, homers, RBIs and runs scored. And most of the execs we surveyed now think heβs a lock to sign a deal when he reaches free agency this winter that tops the $440 million the Nationals offered him in 2022. We should mention, though, that opinion wasnβt unanimous.
One exec mentioned the piece Brittany Ghiroli wrote in The Athletic about Sotoβs adjustment issues in San Diego β and said that would βscare the absolute crap out of meβ if his team was thinking about dangling half a billion dollars in front of Soto.
The Yankees, obviously, wouldnβt have to worry about that unknown. But if this turns into a negotiation involving only a couple of teams, βhow big is it going to get?β the same exec asked. βI question if (the contract) is going to start with a five at that point.β
Whether it will or it wonβt is a mystery to be solved many months from now. But either way, you wonβt have to worry about whether Juan Soto will be able to afford that brand new 4K Ultra HD flat screen for his basement.
GO DEEPER
Three takeaways from Juan Soto’s first month with the Yankees: ‘Once-in-a-generation’
5. Ohtaniβs latest trick: Leading the league in tunnel vision
The spotlight on the start of his Dodgers career hasnβt appeared to faze Shohei Ohtani. (Geoff Burke / USA Today)
We already knew that Shohei Ohtani was Superman. But it turns out we were selling him short. What he really is, is Superhuman.
Thatβs a gig that doesnβt come with a cape, a side gig as a geeky newspaper guy or a date with Lois Lane. But itβs just the latest reason to look at Shohei the Magnificent and ask: βWhatΒ canβtΒ he do?β
Entering Tuesday, more than a month into his first season as a Dodger, Ohtani had a 189 OPS+. That would be a career best even for him.
He fired off an amazing 22 extra-base hits in his first 30 games, putting him on pace for a ridiculous, Ruthian total of 119.
And those 22 extra-base hits in 30 games? Thatβs tied for the second most by any player in the modern era who had just changed teams β and the most since Hack Wilson joined the Cubs β¦ 98 years ago.
On one hand, Ohtani hasnβt mixed in any 14-strikeout games on the mound, due to ligament issues that are currently under repair. On the other hand, heβs had kind of an eventful month off the field.
This is not the place for a recap of the life and times of Ippei Mizuhara. But imagine how youβd perform in your job if you woke up and found out the person you spent countless hours a day with was under multiple federal investigations β¦ and ohbytheway, you would never see him again.
This is, basically, the Tunnel Vision Olympiad. And as Shohei is busy scarfing up gold medals in that competition, the execs in our survey were in disbelief at how heβs been able to do what he does.
βI donβt know why itβs not a bigger story on Planet Earth what this guy is doing,β one exec said.
βItβs incredible,β another said. βHe moved to a new environment and a new team. He had about as big a distraction as you could possibly have. And he seems unaffected by it. His ability to focus and just be incredible is one of a kind. Itβs unique. Nobody can do what he does.β
6. The word for Bobby Witt Jr. and Elly De La Cruz: Superstars
There comes that moment in the life of every great player when the rest of civilization comes to realize what he is. For Bobby Witt Jr. and Elly De La Cruz, that moment felt like it arrived last month.
Unless you live in the 816 area code, you might think thereβs no reason to stop what youβre doing when Royals highlights flip across the screen. OK, hereβs a reason to reevaluate that thought.
Bobby Witt Jr., you are ridiculous π€―
(via @MLB)
pic.twitter.com/cFLdmpOXJAβ FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 28, 2024
Bobby Witt Jr., friends. Heβs a force of nature.
Sprint speed:Β 30.3 feet/second, 1st among full-time players
Hard-hit rate:Β 59 percent, 5th in MLB
Defensive Runs Saved:Β 6, 1st among MLB shortstops
Arm strength:Β 90.1 mph, 3rd among MLB shortstops
ββIβll tell you what heβs done, in my opinion,β said an NL exec. βBy having him step up to become that superstar, what heβs done is cause Salvy Perez to step up hisΒ game and get back to being the player that he has been.β
Excellent point. Thatβs what superstars do. They elevate everyone around them. Speaking of which β¦ Elly De La Cruz. Weβre starting to get the impression heβs good at doing things other humans canβt do.
Elly De La Cruz threw this ball 106.9 miles per hour π― pic.twitter.com/JgddfUlFuW
β Baseball Quotes (@BaseballQuotes1) April 30, 2024
Letβs summarize Ellyβs month for the Reds: Switch hit inside-the-park and outside-the-park homers in the same game. β¦ Stole home. β¦ Hit three home runs that sailed a projected 443 feet or farther. β¦ Stole three bases in a game twice. β¦ Hit as many home runs (eight) as Pete Alonso. β¦ Even was alleged to have thrown a baseball at an unheard of 106.9 miles per hour, except (very unfortunately) Statcast later told us that, well, no he didnβt.
But hang on. Thereβs more. The Reds started playing baseball four years after the Civil War. Records are a little sketchy from that era. But over the past 110 seasons, only one Red β Eric Davis β had ever had any calendar month in which he stole at least 17 bases and hit more than oneΒ home run.
Elly De La Cruz just stole 17 bases and hit eight homers in the first full calendar month of this season (and stole 18 altogether, counting March). Why do we think there might be more months like that in his future?
βThe tools are insane,β said one exec. βBut the improvements that heβs made are the type of improvements that superstars make when theyβre young. His ability, his approach at the plate, the things that he does, at-bat to at-bat and game-to-game, show you that he is going to be an absolute (laughs) β βsuperstarβ doesnβt even capture it, more like a unique generational talent.β
Superstar doesnβt even capture it.Β Whoa. No wonder he showed up in this column.
7. The White Sox, Rockies and Marlins are on β62 Mets Watch
Let the record show that 62 years ago, on their way to becoming the losingest team of modern times, Casey Stengelβs 1962 Mets (final record: 40-120) won 11 of their first 30 games. Do the 2024 White Sox, Rockies and Marlins even want to know that? Letβs go with no.
As they flipped their calendars to May, the White Sox were 6-24. The Rockies were 7-22. The Marlins were 7-24. So theyβre already a combined 50 games under .500!
Theyβve been outscored by a total of 213 runs. Theyβve ripped off losing streaks of nine, seven, seven, six, six and five games. Their starting pitchers are a combined 10-43. Their relievers have teamed up for eight more blown saves (19) than saves (11).
So is it nuts to say theyβre making Caseyβs Mets look like the Big Red Machine?
The Rockies have played 29 games β and trailed at some point in every one of them. That broke a record set by Farmer Rayβs 1910 St. Louis Browns, who fell behind in each of their first 28 games of the season β¦ on the way to losing 107 times. Letβs blame Coors Field!
The Marlins made the playoffs last year. They rode that wave this year by losing more games before May 1 (24) than any team in National League history. Theyβre 3-15 at home. They didnβt lose their 15th home game last year until June 20. Good times.
The White SoxΒ went into Tuesday night with 79 runs scored all season. The Dodgers scored their 79th run on April 9.Β The White Sox also got shut out at some pointΒ in every one of their first eight series of the season.Β Want to guess how many other teams have ever done that? None would be a shrewd guess.
So thatβs quite a start. Is there a 120-loss season in there someplace? How could we rule that out?
βBefore I saw the White Sox, I didnβt see how it was possible to lose 120 games,β said one AL exec. βNow Iβm not so sure.β
βBut at least the White Sox just started a rebuild,β said another AL exec. βThey arguably should have started it a couple of years ago, but whatever. And their best player (Luis Robert Jr.) is hurt. And they just traded Dylan Cease. So you can say theyβre on a path to something. But when you look at the Rockiesβ roster β¦ (big pause)
βI just find it shocking,β he continued, βthat theyβre in a division with the Dodgers, the Giants, the Padres and the Diamondbacks. And they are nowhere close to even being the fourthΒ best team in that division.β
Oh, and one more thing: Itβs a bad time to tank! The White Sox and Rockies both have top-six draft picks this year β¦ which means they canβt pick higher than 10th next year, thanks to the new anti-tanking rules in the 2022 collective bargaining agreement. So as bad as this season looks for both of those teams, itβs hard to fathom itβs even worse than you think!
GO DEEPER
Weird & Wild: Could the White Sox lose more than the ’62 Mets? They’re off to a great start!
8. Mason Miller and Jared Jones are a show
You know that section we rolled out earlier about Bobby Witt Jr. and Elly De La Cruz? This is the pitching version.
Mason Miller just finished his first month as the Aβs closer. Wow.
Jared Jones just finished his first month as a starting pitcher for the Pirates. Unbe-freaking-lievable.
Theyβre the answer to this assignment: Pick two young pitchers to watch in a sport full of rocket launchers. Except they have to be two youβd never spent 30 seconds thinking about before this April, pitching for teams that never make it on national TVβs radar.
Weβll accept nominations for Tarik Skubal or Cole Ragans or Nick Lodolo. But itβs our column. And our nomination is these two guys.
Mason MillerΒ has already thrown 86 pitches at 100 mph or harder this year. Only one pitcher in baseball (Michael Kopech, 53) is even within 50 of him. Can it actually be possible that this dude has hit 100-plus on more than 43 percent of the pitches heβs thrown this season? It is, all right. Nobody else is even at 20 percent.
He has struck out 15 hitters on fastballs this year β¦ and all 15 of them were on pitches that splattered triple digits all over the radar board. Five of those strikeouts came in his two saves at Yankee Stadium last month. The Statcast readings on those five pitches: 103.3, 102.5, 102.5, 101.9, 101.3. That happened β¦ in real life.
Absolute GAS from Mason Miller against the top of the Yankees’ order to secure the save β½οΈπ₯
π₯: @PitchingNinja pic.twitter.com/AiCZVTuGMa
β FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 22, 2024
Jared Jones, meanwhile,Β has piled up 105 swings-and-misses in the first six starts of his career. Seriously? Thatβs the most swings-and-misses by any pitcher in the majors β and nearly all of the pitchers who are even within 20 whiffs of him are guys who have thrown at least 100 more pitches than he has.
Heβs averaging 17.5 whiffs per start, even though he only works long enough to serve up 81 pitches a start. Gerrit Cole averaged 9.2 whiffs per start in his first season as a Pirate β and has only hit 17.5 in one season over his career (2019). So β¦ get the picture? We have a true dominator on our hands.
Jared Jones just KILLED a man. π€£ pic.twitter.com/rcdh9KbbSK
β Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 22, 2024
But weβre not the only ones gushing. Want to hear actual baseball executives gush right along with us?
βMason Miller β oh my God,β said one exec. βHe could throw a marshmallow through a battleship.β
βThe biggest story on the Pirates is the Jared Jones extravaganza every five or six days,β said another exec. βHeβs awesome. And when they bring up (Paul) Skenes and they have both of those two guys, youβll be going, βOh (bleep), weβve got both these guys on tap in this series?β Thatβs going to be scary for a lot of teams.β
GO DEEPER
How a diabetes diagnosis turned around Aβs closer Mason Millerβs career
GO DEEPER
‘Sliders’: How the Pirates are managing young arms, a Leiter family milestone and more
9. Baseball is winning the war on dead time
Yeah, yeah. We know The New Rules were last yearβs story, not this yearβs story. But that doesnβt mean thereβs not stuff going on in Year Two. So here goes.
Weβll let other people debate whether the pitch clock causes injuries. We were curious about the impact of the two seconds MLB shaved off that clock with runners on base this season (from 20 seconds to 18). Itβs all part of the war on dead time. And the data is clear. Dead time is losing that war.
AVERAGEΒ TIME BETWEEN BALLS IN PLAY
2022: 3 minutes, 42 seconds
2023: 3 minutes, 13 seconds
2024: 3 minutes, 10 seconds
AVERAGE TIME BETWEEN PLATE APPEARANCES
2022: 2 minutes, 29 seconds
2023: 2 minutes, 8 seconds
2024: 2 minutes, 6 seconds
AVERAGE TIME, 9-INNING GAME
2021: 3 hours, 10 minutes
2022: 3 hours, 3 minutes
2023: 2 hours, 39 minutes
2024: 2 hours, 36 minutes
GAMES OF 3:30 OR LONGER*
2022: 28
2023: 3
2024: 1
(*before May 1, not including extra innings)
(Source: Baseball Reference)
MLBβs publicΒ goal was to trim five minutes off the average game time, which crept upward as last season wore on. That hasnβt quite happened. But the average time between balls in play is down to its lowest level since 2008. And the average time between plate appearances is now tighter than in any season in at least the last 25 years.
So we can argue about how many seconds to set the clock at, or the long-term impact on player health. But baseball is a rhythm sport. And if the pitch clock has done anything, it has restored the rhythm to a game that thrives on that rhythm.
As one AL exec put it, βthe game is so much better now than it was 36 months ago. β¦ Better tempo. More attractive to watch and to play. I donβt even think weβve played a three-hour game yet. And that is awesome β for our fans and for our players.β
GO DEEPER
Guide to Year 2 of MLB’s new rules: The ‘cat-and-mouse’ game is on as the sport evolves
10. The biggest surprises: The Guardians, Royals β¦ and Cardinals?
Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt Jr. and company have the Royals rolling. (Melissa Tamez / USA Today)
Youβd have a better chance predicting the Powerball numbers tonight than you would predicting the outcome of any baseball season. That was true in 1924. Itβs just as true in 2024. There is always something we didnβt see coming.
But before we go further in this discussion, letβs address that thing we know some of you are thinking: We havenβt talked about the Braves or Orioles β¦ or the Cubs or Phillies β¦ or those defending World Series champs, the Rangers. We havenβt gotten to Mookie Betts or Gunnar Henderson or Josh Naylor β¦ or Ranger SuΓ‘rez or Shota Imanaga.
Right! If thatβs what youβre thinking, we hear you. We get it. Weβre sorry. We hate to disappoint you. But the What We Learned column wasnβt invented to be a recap of the month that was. It was invented to be a deep dive into lessons that month has taught us.
It isnβt every lesson. It may not be the same lessons you learned. Itβs just stuff we found interesting β and that the front-office minds we surveyed found interesting. So with that out of the way β¦
We asked these execs to give us their biggest surprises so far. Here are the teams they named most.
THE GUARDIANS β In the first 25 games of his managerial career, Stephen Vogtβs Guardians went an amazing 18-7. We could only find two other managers in the wild-card era who went 18-7 or better β starting with Opening Day β to kick off their first big-league managerial gig: Alex Cora (19-6 with the 2018 Red Sox) and (speaking of surprises) Grady Little (18-7 with the 2002 Red Sox).
βFor me, thatβs one of the biggest surprises of the first month,β one exec said of Vogt and the Guardians. βI canβt get over how well they have responded. Because heβs replacing a guy, in (Terry Francona), who was the best playersβ manager going. And now this guy comes in and, at least on the surface, looks to be the same kind of guy. Theyβve responded. And, in a way, it almost looks like theyβve been reenergized.β
GO DEEPER
Polaroids, bat slams and βsaying the stupidest thingβ: Inside the Guardiansβ scorching start
THE ROYALS β The 2023 Royals lost 106 games. Thatβs not usually the prelude to a trip to October. But if the 2024 postseason started today, the Royals would be playing in it. And thatβs a testament not just to all the money they spent on pitching upgrades last winter but also to the most surprising offense in baseball. Who had the Royals outscoring the Astros?
βThe Royals I think are the biggest true surprise,β said one rival exec. βThey are pitching unbelievably. I think theyβre third or fourth in the (American) League in (FanGraphs) WAR, which is really shocking to me. And thatβs on top of the way theyβre playing offensively, which is also shocking to me. We thought they were improved β like sniffing .500 improved β but not like this. β¦ Is it going to last all season? I donβt know. But itβs cool for a town that loves baseball.β
THE CARDINALS β We never said all these surprises had to be good surprises. So sure, this qualifies. To see the Cardinals in last place β¦ and last in their league in homers β¦ and 28thΒ in baseball in runs scored β¦ with a pitching staff that has barely been league average (with a 108 ERA+) β¦ itβs out of whack with all the preseason predictions that had them rebounding to win their division.
True, they finished last in the NL Central a year ago, too. But the last time the Cardinals finished last two years in a rowΒ was kind of a while ago β as in 1907 and 1908.
βItβs not so much youβre surprised theyβre in last place,β said one exec. βItβs more surprising that they actuallyΒ look likeΒ a last-place team.β
Is that what we expected? But just like all of this, itβs what we learned in a fascinating first month.
(Top image: Sean Reilly / The Athletic. Photos: Aaron Judge: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images; Shohei Ohtani: Michael Reaves / Getty Images; Elly De La Cruz: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
The Lakers are one playoff defeat from their season being over and from the conversation turning to LeBron Jamesβ future.
They are in a hole no team has climbed out of in the history of the NBA, the Lakersβ 131-108 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3 putting L.A. down 3-0 in the best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal series.
James and his teammates gave a gallant effort Saturday night at Crypto.com Arena, but the defending champion proved to be more than the Lakers could handle.
James finished his night with 19 points on seven-for-19 shooting, eight assists and six rebounds. Rui Hachimura had 21 points and Austin Reaves finished with 17 points and nine assists.
Even so, the Lakers have now lost all three games by double digits.
And the Lakers are fully aware that no NBA team has successfully come back from a 3-0 deficit in the playoffs, with those teams holding a 161-0 record. Only four teams have forced a Game 7 after trailing 3-0, all of which ultimately lost the series, including the Boston Celtics in 2023.
Lakers forward LeBron James shows frustration as Thunder center Chet Holmgren slam dunks during Game 3 on Saturday night.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
Game 4 is Monday night, when the Lakers will try to stave off elimination and a night that will determine how the conversations go with James if they lose.
James has been frequently asked this season about retirement, but he has not given any indication of what the future holds for him.
Heβs 41 years old and playing in an NBA-record 23rd season.
James is in the final year of his contract that pays him $52 million, making him a free agent this offseason. He can retire, join another team or perhaps return to the Lakers next season.
That will be the conversation if the Lakers canβt win Game 4.
They will see the same Thunder team that had seven players score in double figures, led by Ajay Mitchellβs 24 points and 10 assists and Shai Gilgeous-Alexanderβs 23 points and nine assists.
The Lakers went down 13 in the third quarter and had to play catchup the rest of the way. They never did, going down by 112-94 with 6 minutes and 12 seconds left, forcing Lakers coach JJ Redick to call a timeout.
The deficit just kept growing, topping out at 27 points in the fourth.
They were outscored 33-20 in the third quarter. The Lakers didnβt take care of the basketball in the third, turning it over six times, and they didnβt play good defense, allowing the Thunder to shoot 59.1% from the field and 55.6 percent from three-point range,
The Lakers did not give an inch to the Thunder in the first half, even when they fell behind by 10 points.
They just kept grinding until they led 59-57 at halftime.
Hachimura had 16 points in the first half, continuing his hot three-point shooting by making all four of his threes. Luke Kennard came off the bench to give the Lakers 13 points, shooting five for six from the field and three for four from three-point range.
The Lakers kept the pressure defense on Gilgeous-Alexander. Though he had 14 points in the first half, he shot only four for 14 from the field and one for five from three-point range.
The Lakers shot 55% from three-point range in the first half, which went a long way in helping them.
The Lakers lost the first two games by identical margins of 18 points and each loss was magnified because Gilgeous-Alexander was kept under wraps for the most part by L.A.βs defense.
When Gilgeous-Alexander picked up his fourth foul with 10:34 left in the third quarter of Game 2 and went to the bench, the Thunder turned a five-point lead into a 13-point advantage at the end of the quarter.
So, when he wasnβt on the court, the Lakers failed to take advantage.
βWell, you know, again, Iβll repeat what I said after the game: weβve got to be better in the non-Shai minutes,β Lakers coach JJ Redick said.
Role players like Mitchell and Jared McCain hurt the Lakers in the second game. Chet Holmgren also was hard to deal with.
βMitchell and McCain have hurt us in those non-Shai minutes, and then Chet [Holmgren] has hurt us the whole game,β Redick said. βI think youβve got to be willing to live with something. Shai playing one-on-one, thus far in the series, we havenβt been willing to live with, so youβre going to be in rotation. That can lead to smalls on bigs at the hole, and the offensive rebounding from Chet has really hurt us.β
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In 2025, Alex Palou kicked off the Month of May with a Sonsio Grand Prix win at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.Β
Based on the odds, it’s likely that Palou will find himself in Winner’s Circle again this Saturday when INDYCAR goes back to IMS on May 9 (4:30 p.m. ET, FOX).
Considering Palou has already captured the checkered flag three times this season, are there any other drivers whose odds are worth a wager?
Here are the latest lines at DraftKings Sportsbook as of May 9.
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
Sonsio Grand Prix 2026
Γlex Palou: 5/18 (bet $10 to win $12.78 total)
Kyle Kirkwood: 5/1 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Pato O’Ward: 12/1 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
David Malukas: 14/1 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Josef Newgarden: 16/1 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Scott McLaughlin: 20/1 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Christian Lundgaard: 30/1 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Scott Dixon: 40/1 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Will Power:Β 60/1 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Felix Rosenqvist: 80/1 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
Alexander Rossi: 100/1 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Marcus Ericsson: 100/1 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Marcus Armstrong: 100/1 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Christian Rasmussen: 150/1 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)
Graham Rahal: 150/1 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)
Louis Foster: 300/1 (bet $10 to win $3,010 total)
Dennis Hauger: 500/1 (bet $10 to win $5,010 total)
Romain Grosjean: 500/1 (bet $10 to win $5,010 total)
Santino Ferrucci: 500/1 (bet $10 to win $5,010 total)
Rinus Veekay: 500/1 (bet $10 to win $5,010 total)
Kyffin Simpson: 500/1 (bet $10 to win $5,010 total)
Caio Collet: 1000/1 (bet $10 to win $10,010 total)
Sting Ray Robb: 1000/1 (bet $10 to win $10,010 total)
Nolan Siegel: 1000/1 (bet $10 to win $10,010 total)
Mick Schumacher: 1000/1 (bet $10 to win $10,010 total)
Here’s what to know about the oddsboard:
Heavy Favorite: It doesn’t look like Alex Palou’s dominance will be slowing down anytime soon. As noted above, he’s already won three of the five races since the INDYCAR season started in March. With 186 laps led, Palou sits first in the standings and has the shortest odds to win the title again. Last season, he started from the pole and led 29 laps before winning the race.
Long Shot to Watch: While his odds of 150/1 to win at IMS are much longer than Palou’s, Graham Rahal is one to watch. At this race in 2025, he started second and led 49 laps before finishing sixth. He finished second at this course in 2015, 2020 and 2023. He’s currently 10th in the INDYCAR standings, with one top five and three top 10s.
Sports
Prep talk: Southern Section Division 1 semifinals features matchup of boys’ volleyball powers
Get ready for the best high school boysβ volleyball action in the nation on Saturday when four powers face off in the Southern Section Division 1 semifinals.
First up is Huntington Beach hosting No. 1-seeded Mira Costa at 1 p.m. Then itβs Loyola hosting Redondo Union at 5 p.m.
All are capable of beating each other.
Teams are finally healthy, so there could be two five-game matches.
Mira Costa remains the team to beat with a 31-2 record and having the No. 1 college recruit from the class of 2027, Mateo Fuerbringer. Redondo Union owns one of those losses. Loyola is healthier than itβs ever been and has a five-game win over Redondo Union and a five-game loss to Mira Costa. Huntington Beach has two three-game losses to Mira Costa.
The championship match will be next weekend at Cerritos College, followed by the Southern California regional and state championships.
This is a daily look at the positive happenings in high school sports. To submit any news, please email eric.sondheimer@latimes.com.
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