Politics
Trump leads Biden in hypothetical rematch in 2024: Poll
Former President Trump has a three-point lead over President Biden in a hypothetical rematch in 2024, in accordance with an Emerson Faculty ballot.
The ballot was launched on Tuesday and reveals Trump with a 44% to 41% lead over Biden within the hypothetical matchup.
43% of individuals surveyed within the ballot maintain the financial system as their high concern, adopted by healthcare at 13%, immigration at 11%, threats to democracy at 10%, and crime at 7%.
Within the Republican main, the ballot discovered that Trump leads Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis 55% to 29%, with Mike Pence getting 6% amongst Republican voters and Nikki Haley getting 3% of help.
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(Photograph by Pool/Getty Pictures | Photograph by Erin Schaff – Pool/Getty Pictures)
Since Emerson’s November ballot, help for DeSantis has elevated by 4% whereas Trump’s help has stayed the identical.
There may be an age and academic divide throughout the Republican main. Younger Republican voters beneath 35 break for Trump over DeSantis, 73% to 13%, whereas faculty educated voters break for DeSantis over Trump 40% to 33%,” mentioned Spencer Kimball, govt director of Emerson Faculty Polling.
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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis offers a victory speech after defeating Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rep. Charlie Crist throughout his election night time watch celebration on the Tampa Conference Heart on November 8, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. DeSantis was the projected winner by a double-digit lead.
(Photograph by Octavio Jones/Getty Pictures)
Biden leads DeSantis in a hypothetical matchup by lower than a proportion level, 40% to 39%. Biden has misplaced three proportion factors within the hypothetical matchup to DeSantis since Emerson’s November ballot.
44% of voters approve of the job that Biden is doing, and 48% disapprove of his dealing with of the job.
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U.S. President Joe Biden walks to talk to reporters as he and first girl Jill Biden depart the White Home and stroll to Marine One on the South Garden on December 27, 2022 in Washington, DC. The Bidens are spending the New Years vacation in St. Croix, United States Virgin Islands.
(Anna Moneymaker)
For the reason that November ballot, Biden has seen a 5 proportion level restoration in his job approval.
In April as part of the New York Times/Siena College survey, we called about 1,000 voters across the country and asked for their most prominent memory of the Trump years. Here’s what they said, in their own words.
“His honesty”
Trump supporter in 2024
“His lies”
Biden supporter
“He had the country headed in the right direction”
Trump supporter “America was going in the wrong direction”
Biden supporter
“He was a crook”
Biden supporter
“He couldn’t be bought”
Trump supporter
“Efficient”
Trump supporter
“Incompetent”
Biden supporter “Less division”
Trump supporter
“Divided the country”
Undecided
What one thing do you remember most about Donald Trump’s presidency?
The 2024 election will be in part a battle over memories, perhaps more than in previous presidential races because it’s a rare rematch. And memories aren’t necessarily static — what is happening today can influence those memories.
Two of the biggest U.S. news events in decades, the Covid pandemic and the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol, are seldom the first thing on people’s minds when it comes to their memories of the Trump administration, for example, according to an April Times/Siena survey of registered voters nationwide.
When asked to describe the one thing they remembered most from Donald J. Trump’s presidency, only 5 percent of respondents referred to Jan. 6, and only 4 percent to Covid.
“It’s the salience of issues today that color the memories that people have of Trump,” said John Sides, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt.
The importance of issues of the moment may explain the large number of responses about the economy as opposed to Covid or Jan. 6, which have largely receded from the headlines.
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,059 registered voters conducted April 7 to 11, 2024. Top six categories shown.
Thinking back to when Donald Trump was president, what one thing do you remember most about Donald Trump’s presidency?
Because of recency bias — a tendency to focus on recent events instead of past ones — people typically feel their current problems most sharply. And they tend to have a warmer recall of past experiences, which can lead to a sense of nostalgia. Like past presidents, Mr. Trump has enjoyed a higher approval rating of his time in office in retrospect.
Voters who shared negative memories of the Trump years overwhelmingly mentioned aspects of his behavior and personality, while the bulk of positive memories were about the economy.
Over a third of voters shared a positive memory. The same percentage shared a negative one. (Some memories could not be clearly categorized.) The Trump and Biden campaigns are sure to try to emphasize and remind voters of the memories favorable to them.
Here’s a closer look at some of the respondents’ most common memories of Mr. Trump’s years in office.
“He was the biggest liar ever”
Biden supporter in 2024
“His dislike for Black people”
Biden supporter
“The terrible things he did to women”
Biden supporter
“Chaos and corruption”
Biden supporter “The disgrace he brought to this country”
Biden supporter
“His direct way of doing business”
Trump supporter
“I remember him using Twitter a lot”
Undecided
“He got things done and fulfilled campaign promises”
Trump supporter
Selected responses from a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,059 registered voters conducted April 7 to 11, 2024.Comments from voters who said what they remembered most was Trump’s behavior
About two-thirds of the comments about Mr. Trump’s behavior and personality came from voters who said they would support President Biden in November.
Voters tended to speak about Mr. Trump’s personality traits in general terms, rather than recalling specific memories. These respondents were most likely using the question as a vehicle to express their views of Mr. Trump, in addition to or instead of calling to mind a specific memory, Mr. Sides said. Their answers are “a mixture of opinion and, maybe, memory,” he said.
For example, some referred to him as a liar. Others said they remembered him as sexist or racist. Dozens of voters simply replied “chaos.”
Biden supporters were far more likely to cite Mr. Trump’s behavior and personality than any specific issue. Some of them may have spoken about Mr. Trump generally because of the multitude of controversies during his time in office, Mr. Sides said. “If you don’t like Trump and your memory of Trump is essentially a negatively colored memory, it’s easier to sum it up in this fairly broad way by just critiquing him as a person,” he said.
Relatively few voters cited positive memories of Mr. Trump’s behavior and personality. Those who did typically used a common refrain: that he “got things done” or “did what he set out to do.”
This could, again, be a way for voters to express an opinion without a specific memory.
It could also reflect a persona that Mr. Trump has honed at rallies and in campaign communications, said Seth Masket, a professor of political science at the University of Denver. These recollections are not necessarily “bound by reality,” he said. “They’re images. They’re reputations.”
“The economy”
Trump supporter in 2024
“The economy was a little better than it is now”
Trump supporter
“The economy was in a lot better shape than it is now”
Trump supporter “Gas was cheap and we were using our own oil”
Trump supporter
“That he gave out the stimulus checks”
Undecided
“Tax cuts for the rich”
Biden supporter
“The tax cuts”
Trump supporter
“Good economy, no wars”
Trump supporter Selected responses from a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,059 registered voters conducted April 7 to 11, 2024.
Comments from voters who said what they remembered most was the economy
Voters who cited the economy as their top memory largely looked back on the Trump years as a time of prosperity. A large share of these comments came from Trump supporters, many of whom said, generically, “the economy.”
“A lot of that is kind of a response to what people perceive as a not good economy now,” Mr. Masket said. Memories of a thriving Trump-era economy could reflect the salience of lingering inflation as an issue faced by President Biden today.
Presidents don’t have as much influence over the economy as many voters assume. For example, most rich countries like the U.S. experienced inflation spikes and then declines in inflation as the pandemic wound down, and economists have generally praised the U.S. recovery. But many voters are typically worried about economic signals right in front of them in the moment.
The many responses mentioning lower gas prices under Mr. Trump, for example, were a way for voters to draw a contrast between the two candidates. “In 2020, when no one could travel, gas prices were very low,” Mr. Masket said. Higher gas prices were “one of the most notable features of inflation” during the pandemic recovery, he added.
Comments from voters who said what they remembered most was immigration
-
“He saved our country and closed the border”
Trump supporter in 2024
-
“The wall”
Trump supporter
-
“Started the wall on the border”
Trump supporter
-
“His promise to build a wall”
Trump supporter
-
“He did attempt to start building the wall”
Trump supporter
-
“He did something about the border”
Undecided
-
“Putting children in cages”
Biden supporter
Selected responses from a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,059 registered voters conducted April 7 to 11, 2024.
The Biden administration has grappled with the surge in illegal crossings along the border with Mexico, making it an issue with higher salience. Trump supporters who remembered Mr. Trump’s immigration politics tended to cite his promises to build a wall along the border and his hard-line approach to border security, things they saw as standing in contrast with Mr. Biden’s approach.
The small number of Biden supporters in the survey whose main memory of Mr. Trump was about immigration almost all mentioned Trump-era policies that led to family separations at the border.
Comments from voters who said what they remembered most was Covid or Jan. 6
-
“When he refused to turn over power”
Biden supporter in 2024
-
“He should be in jail for the Jan. 6 incident”
Biden supporter
-
“Involvement with the Jan. 6 riot attack on the capital”
Biden supporter
-
“Jan. 6 and his unwillingness to accept the election results”
Biden supporter
-
“His anti-science views; he called Covid a liberal hoax”
Biden supporter
-
“He called Covid-19 a hoax and was a constant liar”
Biden supporter
-
“Total incompetence in handling the Covid-19 crisis”
Biden supporter
-
“Negligence in providing accurate Covid information”
Biden supporter
Selected responses from a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,059 registered voters conducted April 7 to 11, 2024.
The fading of Covid and Jan. 6 from people’s memories about Mr. Trump — less than 10 percent of survey respondents mentioned them — is still surprising, Mr. Masket said. “In many ways, the most recent things about his presidency are not the things that people remember about him,” he said.
Voters may be loath to revisit unpleasant memories of the pandemic, he said. This helps Mr. Trump in some ways. “Trump almost gets a pass,” he said, adding, “He just gets, ‘Well, the first three years were good and the fourth year wasn’t his fault.’”
Thoughts of Covid and Jan. 6 could have informed other answers, even if voters didn’t cite them specifically, Mr. Sides said. For instance, voters could have been thinking of these events when giving responses mentioning Mr. Trump’s lies or chaos and division during his time in office.
“No new wars”
Trump supporter in 2024
“Knew how to talk to foreign people and keep peace with everyone”
Trump supporter
“Peace in the Middle East”
Trump supporter “World peace”
Trump supporter
“Stability among nations”
Trump supporter
“Opening up communication with North Korea”
Biden supporter
“Threatening nuclear war against North Korea”
Biden supporter
“Probably when he made peace with North Korea and he was the first president to step foot on Korean soil”
Trump supporter Selected responses from a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,059 registered voters conducted April 7 to 11, 2024.
Comments from voters who said what they remembered most was foreign policy
A handful of voters in the survey, mostly Trump supporters, looked back on the Trump years as a time of peace. This may be because of the two major international conflicts — the Israel-Hamas war and the Russia-Ukraine war — that are dominant in the public consciousness today. As with responses about the economy and immigration, these responses may reflect an implicit critique of Mr. Biden’s handling of foreign policy.
A few voters — both Biden and Trump supporters — specifically mentioned North Korea in their top memory of Mr. Trump as president, in particular his meeting with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, at the Demilitarized Zone.
There is time for perceptions to shift before November, and for other issues to take hold. (The survey was conducted before the start of Mr. Trump’s Manhattan criminal trial.)
In the battle over memories, the Biden campaign will be trying to remind voters of some older ones that reflect poorly on Mr. Trump.
In April, Mr. Biden shared a video on social media of Mr. Trump’s suggestion to inject disinfectant during the early days of the pandemic. And on Tuesday, the Biden campaign released a digital ad that interspersed Mr. Trump’s criticism of immigrants along with images of crying women and children.
“If people are mostly thinking about the economy, that seems to be helping Trump right now, and what the Biden team is going to try and do is keep raising other issues, keep raising, you know, Jan. 6 as an issue or chaos and Covid as an issue,” Mr. Masket said.
A federal appeals court panel has found that a small Pennsylvania town’s ordinance designed to cut down on lawn signs is unconstitutional, saying that its resulting limitations on political lawn signs violates the free speech rights of residents.
The decision Thursday by a three-judge panel of the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a lower court ruling against Camp Hill Borough, a town of about 8,000 residents just outside the state capital of Harrisburg.
In the 11-page decision, Judge Stephanos Bibas rejected the borough’s arguments that its 2021 ordinance only regulated the “time, place and manner” of signs. Rather, the ordinance discriminates between types of content, is overly broad and lacks a compelling enough reason to encroach on free speech rights, Bibas wrote.
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As proof of the ordinance’s regulation of content, the borough sought to impose stricter limits on noncommercial signs, such as political signs, than commercial or holiday signs, Bibas wrote.
Bibas wrote that Camp Hill’s interests in imposing the limits on signs — traffic safety and aesthetics — are legitimate, but not compelling enough to limit free speech.
“While trying to preserve aesthetics and promote traffic safety, Camp Hill stitched together a crazy quilt of a sign ordinance,” Bibas wrote. “Because it discriminates against some messages, the ordinance is unconstitutional on its face.”
FILE – Campaign signs for Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania and Democratic challenger George Scott as seen on a neighborhood street in the district, Saturday, Oct. 6, 2018 in Camp Hill, Pa. A federal appeals court panel has found that a small Pennsylvania towns ordinance designed to cut down on lawn signs is unconstitutional, saying that its resulting limitations on political lawn signs violates the free speech rights of residents. (AP Photo/Marc Levy, File)
Under the ordinance, residents could not put up more than two so-called “personal expression” signs for more than 60 days before an event, in this case, an election. They could not be lit up, taller than 6 feet or remain more than 30 days after the event.
The Camp Hill Borough Republican Association and two residents sued in 2022.
One resident had been told by the borough code enforcement officer that her three lawn signs — one each for Republican gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano, U.S. Senate nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz and U.S. Rep. Scott Perry — were too many. The other resident was told in August that her signs for Oz and Mastriano couldn’t be up more than 60 days before the Nov. 8 general election.
Paul Lewis, chair of the Camp Hill Borough Republican Association, called it a “powerful decision.”
“I’m glad that now two different federal courts have been on the side of the constitution and freedom of speech and freedom of expression,” Lewis said in an interview Friday. “Regardless of your political leanings, this is something that benefits you, regardless of which party you stand for and support.”
In a statement, the borough said it was disappointed with the decision “and is concerned with the potential sprawling impact it may have on the ability of the borough and other municipalities to meaningfully regulate signs in pursuit of traffic safety and aesthetics.”
A borough official said Friday that officials hadn’t decided whether to appeal.
President Biden raised millions of dollars for his reelection bid in Silicon Valley on Friday as he poked at former President Trump and argued that his campaign was being underestimated.
“The press doesn’t want to write about it, but the momentum is clearly in our favor, with polls moving toward us and away from Trump,” he said, noting that 1.6 million people have donated to the campaign, nearly all less than $200 each. He said his campaign has opened 150 offices in battleground states “and Trump has opened zero offices. And it’s not just because he’s on trial.”
California donors bankroll presidential campaigns on both sides of the aisle, and Biden and Trump have both raised more in the state for their reelection bids than anywhere else, according to the Federal Election Commission. The president is expected to return to Southern California for a fundraiser in June.
Biden’s Friday trip to California was his first since a February fundraiser at the Beverly Park estate of media mogul Haim Saban. The Israeli American billionaire prompted scrutiny this week because of an email he sent to senior Biden aides criticizing the administration’s decision to put a shipment of weapons to Israel on hold because they could be used in an offensive against a densely populated city in southern Gaza.
Biden encountered protesters on both sides of the issue in the Bay Area, as well as in Seattle, where he flew after the California visit. As the president’s motorcade drove to a fundraiser hosted by Marissa Mayer, the former chief executive of Yahoo, it encountered people holding Palestinian flags and signs that said “Defund Israel” as well as another group waving Israeli flags.
Biden did not address the issue at three fundraisers in California and Washington state on Friday, including the event hosted by Mayer, where tickets cost up to $50,000, according to the news website Puck. An earlier fundraiser Biden headlined at the Portola Valley home of Vinod Khosla, a co-founder of Sun Microsystems, cost up to $100,000. The two events were expected to raise $4 million.
California First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom attended the Mayer event. Biden called the pair as a source of inspiration and noted his efforts to create a diverse administration.
“These two ladies here in my view — and I mean this sincerely — are emblematic of how America is changing,” the president said. “They’re incredibly competent and they’re incredibly capable and they’re changing the whole emotion of what constitutes success and what can be done.”
Silicon Valley has grown into a fundraising juggernaut for political candidates and overwhelmingly favors Democrats.
In the 2024 presidential election, Biden and associated groups backing his campaign have raised $17.1 million from the communications and electronics industry, which includes tech companies, according to an analysis of Federal Election Commission data released April 22 by the nonpartisan nonprofit Open Secrets, which tracks electoral finances. Trump has raised $1.7 million.
Trump did receive the backing of some notable tech leaders in his successful 2016 campaign, such as billionaire Peter Thiel, who made history that year when the PayPal co-founder said from the podium of the Republican National Convention that he is gay before Trump was nominated as the GOP candidate.
Thiel and some other tech leaders backed away from Trump after the tumult of his presidency and in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol that attempted to halt the certification of the 2020 election results.
In the 2024 Republican primary, some backed other GOP candidates but have reportedly returned to the fold since Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee.
“President Trump is building a historic and unified political movement to make America great again, receiving more than 90% approval from Republican voters, winning Independents by double digits, and picking up historic gains with longtime Democrat constituencies,” said campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt.
“Anyone who believes in securing the border, rebuilding the economy, restoring American energy dominance, and ending the wars Joe Biden has created around the world is welcome to join President Trump’s movement to make America great again,” Leavitt said.
National GOP leaders predicted Biden would lose in November dispute his fundraising prowess.
“Everyone is worse off under Joe Biden, but instead of correcting his failed Bidenomics agenda or securing the border, Biden is rubbing elbows with donors to save his flailing campaign,” Michael Whatley, chairman of the Republican National Committee, said in a statement. “It won’t work — voters know that Biden is wrong on the issues, and they’ll vote President Trump back in to the White House on November 5.”
First Lady Jill Biden was also in California raising money for her husband’s reelection campaign — in Marin County on Thursday and in Beverly Hills on Friday at the home of John Emerson, the U.S. ambassador to Germany under President Barack Obama, and Kimberly Marteau Emerson, the spokesperson for the United States Information Agency under President Bill Clinton.
The event raised more than $450,000, Emerson told attendees, who included media mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg, a co-chair of Biden’s reelection campaign.
After recounting how Biden proposed marriage five times, Jill Biden laced into Trump.
“Donald Trump is dangerous to our families and to our country,” she said. “We are the first generation in half a century to give our daughters a country with fewer rights than we had. We simply cannot let him win.”
The president, speaking in Portola Valley, repeated jokes he has previously made about the former president.
“Not everyone is feeling the enthusiasm these days. The other day this guy walked up, said I’m in real trouble, short on cash, I don’t know what to do. I said, ‘Donald, I can’t help you,’” Biden said.
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