A confidential report prepared for Iran’s presidency is raising a consequential question for Washington and its allies: Do extraordinary levels of public anger and support for systemic change justify reassessing whether the Islamic Republic may be more vulnerable to regime change than previously believed?

The classified document, titled “What Iran Wants,” reportedly found that only 9% of respondents supported maintaining the status quo, with 53% calling for fundamental or structural reforms and more than 19% favoring changing the political system outright.

Taken together, nearly three-quarters of those surveyed reportedly supported either deep structural reform or replacement of the existing system — findings that could strengthen arguments that Iran’s political crisis has moved beyond dissatisfaction with individual leaders or policies.

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IranWire reported on July 13 that it had obtained the document, which was compiled by Ali Rabiei, President Masoud Pezeshkian’s social adviser and a former government spokesman. It was based on polling conducted by the Ara Opinion Research Center in May 2026 and circulated among institutions within Iran’s governing structure in June, according to the outlet.

Miad Maleki, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital that the report should prompt a fresh assessment of the potential for political upheaval inside Iran.

“If anything, this research understates the depth of Iranians’ rage,” Maleki said. “And that is what makes it remarkable: even a survey prepared for the regime’s own president, by its own pollsters, records anger levels above 63%, well beyond the highest rate Gallup has ever recorded anywhere in the world, alongside 81% struggling to put food on the table and a majority expressing hopelessness.”

Maleki cautioned that polling conducted under an authoritarian government cannot be treated as precise because respondents may fear the consequences of expressing opposition.

“In a police state where expressing the wrong opinion can cost you your job, your freedom, or your life, respondents self-censor, which means these findings are best read as a floor, not a ceiling,” he said.

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The complete survey methodology was not included in the material obtained by IranWire. The report reportedly did not disclose how respondents were selected, who was questioned or whether the sample reflected Iran’s geographic and demographic makeup.

Its findings therefore cannot be independently verified or treated as definitive measurements of Iranian opinion. The report also cannot establish that dissatisfaction will translate into an organized movement capable of removing the government.

Still, its findings portray multiple pressures converging at once.

Approximately 64% of respondents reported persistent anger, up roughly 12% points from a previous government survey conducted in December 2025. Half reported hopelessness, approximately 48% reported sadness or depression and about 45% reported persistent fear or anxiety, according to IranWire.

Economic distress also appears central to the public anger.

More than 81% experienced severe or partial difficulty obtaining enough food, while 75% struggled to cover medical costs, IranWire reported. Fifty-four percent said their income did not cover current household expenses, and only 8% reported earning enough to save.

Respondents blamed domestic governance more frequently than international pressure. 46.9% cited government inefficiency as the cause of Iran’s economic problems, 26.3% blamed corruption and 20.7% cited foreign sanctions.

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That finding could be especially significant to the regime-change debate because it suggests many Iranians do not primarily blame outside powers for their deteriorating living conditions.

The document also points to a crisis of institutional confidence. Roughly 60% reportedly distrusted major government institutions, while 61.2% negatively assessed officials’ ability to solve Iran’s problems. Distrust of the government, parliament, judiciary and state television remained above 50%, IranWire reported.

The report’s recommendations, however, reportedly centered on managing dissatisfaction rather than addressing demands for systemic change.

Rabiei urged state institutions to better explain the impact of sanctions, moderate the rhetoric used by officials and religious platforms, present a more inclusive image through state television and avoid policies that place the government in direct confrontation with society.

IranWire’s follow-up analysis argued that the recommendations treated Iran’s crisis primarily as a communications and public-perception problem. The report offered few concrete proposals involving institutional accountability, political liberalization or fundamental economic reform, according to the outlet.

Maleki said the findings were consistent with the expanding scale of unrest, citing demonstrations that spread from more than 80 cities in 2017 to more than 200 cities across all 31 provinces this year, alongside what he described as a quadrupling of strikes.

“Iranians have moved from being skeptical of what another revolution might bring to concluding there is no alternative to one, because reform has proven impossible,” Maleki said.

Yet the report does not resolve one of the largest obstacles to regime change: The Islamic Republic has spent decades building institutions designed to monitor, deter and violently suppress organized opposition.

“This regime was born of revolution, by revolutionaries,” Maleki said. “Preventing and crushing the next one is the one thing they genuinely know how to do.”

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He nevertheless argued that further unrest was inevitable.

“So the discontent will translate into renewed protest,” Maleki said. “The question is not if, but when, and whether anyone is prepared to stand with the Iranian people when it does.”

Published on 17/07/2026 – 16:41 GMT+2•Updated
16:42

Hungary has taken significant steps to restore the rule of law in the two months since Prime Minister Péter Magyar took office, the European Commission said in a report presented on Friday.

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The new government has launched “intense reform efforts”, with several legislative changes already advanced, according to the report, which describes the progress made as “impressive” given the short time since the change of government.

“You have a very radical change compared with last year’s report. Things have moved very, very quickly in the right direction,” a senior EU official told Euronews.

A key development was Hungary’s recent decision to join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, which investigates and prosecutes financial crimes affecting the EU budget across member states.

The report also highlights progress in several areas, including anti-corruption measures, asset declarations and the work of the Integrity Authority.

Magyar has also dismantled the “Sovereignty Protection Office”, a body established under his predecessor, Viktor Orbán, which could access citizens’ personal data to investigate and sanction alleged foreign agents. The office had been targeted by an EU infringement procedure.

“We see some very positive trends […] in the early weeks of the new government’s mandate, a lot has already been done,” EU Justice Commissioner Michael McGrath said during a press conference presenting the report.

‘Things can’t change overnight’

Despite the reform push, the Commission said significant shortcomings remain in Hungary’s justice system.

“Things cannot completely change overnight,” a senior EU official told Euronews, stressing that many recommendations made in previous years’ reports have yet to be addressed.

One example is the procedure for appointing the Prosecutor General, which remains a concern for the Commission because it could allow undue political interference in individual cases.

The Commission does not rank EU countries’ performance, but publishes dedicated chapters assessing each member state. For Hungary, the remaining concerns include the functioning of the judiciary, corruption risks and unresolved violations of EU law.

Civic space also continues to be classified as “obstructed” in the report. The complexity of registration procedures in Hungary remains a challenge for smaller organisations with limited resources.

The Rule of Law Report could become increasingly important in the coming years, as the European Commission seeks to strengthen the link between compliance with rule-of-law standards and the allocation of EU funds under the 2028-34 EU budget.

Countries that fail to meet these standards could see payments suspended, although Commissioner McGrath stressed that there would be no automatic mechanism triggered solely by the report’s findings.

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — A tanker came under attack traveling through the Strait of Hormuz taking the route closest to Oman, the British military said Friday.

The report from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center described the strike as happening early Friday and involving a projectile hitting the vessel.

The UKMTO said the ship sustained minor damage to its port side.

“All crew are safe and accounted for, no environmental impact has been reported and the vessel is continuing to its next port of call,” the UKMTO said.

Iran has been attacking tankers traveling on the route near Oman but did not immediately acknowledge any attack.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The United States expanded its airstrike campaign against Iran early Friday by hitting more bridges and collapsing a tower at a key Iranian port, part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to start striking infrastructure to pressure Tehran to ease its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran launched new missile attacks against U.S.-allied nations in the Middle East, including Qatar, a key mediator in the war.

The interim ceasefire agreed to last month has collapsed, and the region has endured days of back-and-forth attacks by the U.S. and Iran as they battle for control of the strait. Iranian officials say U.S. strikes have killed dozens of people and wounded hundreds of others, with new casualties reported in Friday’s strikes.

When the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran on Feb. 28, Tehran effectively closed the strait to shipping traffic, a move that sent the price of oil soaring and gave Iran major leverage in negotiations.

Speaking in a primetime address to the American public, Trump insisted the war was going well.

“We are likewise winning big in Iran, and you will see the fruits of that labor very, very shortly,” Trump said.

Bridges and a port tower hit in Iran

The U.S. airstrikes hit bridges overnight into Friday in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province, killing at least seven people, Iranian state television reported. The attacks hit Bandar Khamir, a city on Iran’s coast on the Strait of Hormuz.

The highway and railway bridge strikes appeared aimed at cutting off Bandar Abbas, Iran’s main port, from roads leading into the Islamic Republic’s central region onward to Tehran, the capital.

While other routes still are open, the U.S. strikes could expand further, potentially disrupting both the movement of military materiel and goods needed for Iran’s 90 million people.

The U.S. military’s Central Command said it hit dozens of targets in its latest airstrikes, which concluded at dawn Friday, the sixth night in a row of American attacks.

The strikes also collapsed a tower at Iran’s Chabahar port on the Gulf of Oman, a key trade route for landlocked, neighboring Afghanistan, the state-run IRNA news agency reported.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shared the image of the surveillance tower collapsing, part of his effort to assert American control over the strait. That image had circulated social media via activists prior to Hegseth sharing it.

Chabahar port, which Iran had been running with support from India, has been a repeated target of American airstrikes. Iranian state media acknowledged a third round of strikes on the facility without immediately acknowledging the tower’s collapse.

Iran described the tower as overseeing commercial traffic into the port. However, Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard also operates at ports across the country.

Iran retaliates by targeting Qatar, a mediator in the war

On Friday, Qatar twice warned the public to take shelter as a barrage of Iranian missiles targeted the nation. People heard explosions overhead as air defenses fired to intercept the missiles. Qatar’s Interior Ministry said falling debris wounded a child.

Qatar, along with Pakistan, is a key mediator in trying to reach an end to the Iran war. But talks have broken down over Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran also targeted Bahrain and Kuwait early Friday. Jordan’s military said it intercepted three incoming missiles Friday morning launched by Iran.

Explosions also could be heard Friday morning in Irbil and Sulaymaniyah in northern Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdish region as air defenses targeted incoming fire. There was no immediate word on any damage.

Strikes come as Iran and US vie for Strait of Hormuz

Trump has returned in recent days to his threats to target Iranian power stations and bridges to try to compel Iran to loosen its hold on the strait, through which about a fifth of all oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. The U.S. also reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports to halt its shipments of crude oil.

Week-to-week cargo shipments through the strait dropped by almost a quarter at the beginning of the month, according to maritime data firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence. And that was before the recent surge in tit-for-tat attacks.

Given the risks, some oil shippers are transiting the strait with their location devices turned off, but many are just staying put, Lloyd’s said Thursday. A growing amount of the region’s energy is being shipped through pipelines, but not nearly enough to offset the decline in shipping through the strait.

U.S. forces have redirected three commercial vessels trying to run the blockade, disabled one that did not comply and boarded another “to ensure full compliance,” the U.S. military’s Central Command said in a post on X.

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Associated Press writers Amir Vahdat in Tehran, Iran, Annika Wolters in Rayong, Thailand, and Stella Martany in Irbil, Iraq, contributed to this report.