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How miscalculations and misperceptions could lead to US-Russia conflict

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Regardless of President Biden’s promise to not contain U.S. troops within the warfare between Russia and Ukraine, a miscalculation from both facet in the course of the tense wrestle may danger dragging NATO into the battle.

The concern of a lethal escalation within the battle has been on the middle of the Biden administration’s response in latest days, with the Pentagon final week denying a request from Ukraine to switch Polish MiG-29 fighter jets to the nation’s armed forces by way of the U.S.’s Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

Slovakian Air Power Mig-29 Fulcrum

PUTIN MAINTAINS 95% OF AVAILABLE COMBAT POWER IN UKRAINE AS WAR PERSISTS: DOD OFFICIAL WARNS

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“The intelligence group has assessed that the switch of MiG-29s could also be mistaken as escalatory and will end in important Russian response that may improve the prospects of a navy escalation with NATO,” Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby informed reporters Wednesday. “Due to this fact, we additionally assess the MiG-29s to Ukraine to be high-risk.”

However maybe the most important danger to an escalation of the battle can be a no-fly zone enforced by NATO, one thing Heritage Basis Senior Analysis Fellow for Protection Coverage John Venable informed Fox Information Digital can be an unlikely danger for NATO to take.

“The issues related to establishing a no-fly zone are huge and would contain extra danger than NATO or the US would settle for underneath virtually any circumstance,” Venable mentioned.

Russian President Vladimir Putin     

Russian President Vladimir Putin     
(Yuri Kochetkov/Pool/Related Press)

Creator and former DIA intelligence officer Rebekah Koffler informed Fox Information Digital Thursday {that a} no-fly zone presents probably the most danger amongst identified eventualities, however currently-unknown actions may inadvertently trigger an escalation in the course of the “fog of warfare.”

“Normally the trail of the escalation is troublesome to foretell, it might probably come out of nowhere within the fog of warfare,” Koffler mentioned. 

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Koffler argued that the present battle in Ukraine is a “proxy warfare” between the U.S. and Russia that would simply escalate right into a “capturing warfare.” 

“It’s so simple for either side to misread one another’s intentions,” Koffler mentioned.

Presidents Biden and Putin

Presidents Biden and Putin
(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Pictures |   Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Pictures)

She famous that Russia is already extremely suspicious of the U.S. and even believes {that a} warfare between the 2 powers is “inevitable.”

“The Russians are predisposed to worst-case state of affairs, their intelligence assessments say {that a} warfare between the U.S. and Russia is inevitable, they already consider it,” Koffler mentioned.

Koffler argued that any variety of steps the U.S. could soak up Ukraine may very well be interpreted by the Russians as escalatory, noting that Russian intelligence companies depend on an algorithm with a number of inputs to evaluate what their adversary’s subsequent transfer could be. Which means even small steps taken by the U.S. may very well be seen as a preparation for warfare. 

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Russian navy doctrine would then name for the Kremlin to strike the primary blow in an try to realize the strategic benefit, Koffler famous, including that the Russians are conscious their forces are incapable of competing with U.S. troops in a standard battle.

President Joe Biden

President Joe Biden
(AP Photograph/Evan Vucci)

A few of Russia’s paranoia in regards to the U.S. stems from earlier American navy operations, Koffler mentioned, together with the 2003 invasion of Iraq that toppled the regime of Saddam Hussein. 

“They’ve assessed that the US is a high-risk adversary as a result of we routinely conduct navy operations to topple regimes akin to Saddam,” Koffler mentioned.

Venable believes the easiest way to keep away from a navy battle is to maintain making use of strain on Russia to drag its forces out of Ukraine, arguing that Russia shedding the warfare may truly trigger them to escalate the state of affairs additional.

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“If Putin continues to get boxed in by way of sanctions, buying and selling and banking stoppages — and he begins shedding the warfare, which may be motive sufficient for him to make use of tactical nuclear weapons,” Venable informed Fox Information Digital. “The West must proceed to use strain, try to dealer a settlement/cease-fire whereas persevering with to supply off-ramps that deescalate the potential” for a battle between NATO and Russia.

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Biden’s ’pre-9/11 posture’ to blame for ISIS migrants slipping through cracks: expert

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Biden’s ’pre-9/11 posture’ to blame for ISIS migrants slipping through cracks: expert

The Biden administration has put the country on a dangerous “pre-9/11” footing on terrorism, says one expert in the wake of the arrests of eight migrants with alleged ties to ISIS.

“The Biden Administration has done grave damage to information sharing among agencies, with state and local law enforcement, and enforcing travel and immigration consequences against foreign governments that refuse to share information with the U.S.,” Lora Ries, director of the Heritage Foundation’s Border Security and Immigration Center, told Fox News Digital.

The comments come after eight Tajikistan nationals were arrested in a joint operation by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force earlier this week. 

While the arrests occurred in New York City, Los Angeles and Philadelphia, a federal source familiar with the sting told Fox News they had gained entry to the U.S. by crossing the southern border illegally.

AUTHORITIES NAB 8 SUSPECTED TERRORISTS WITH TIES TO ISIS IN MULTI-CITY STING OPERATION

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President Biden speaks with U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers as he visits the U.S.-Mexico border in El Paso, Texas, on Jan. 8, 2023. (JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)

The source told Fox News the suspected terrorists were “fully vetted” and that nothing was flagged when the eight suspects originally crossed the border, but derogatory information with national security concerns was later flagged, including the individual’s suspected ties to ISIS.

According to a report from the New York Post, at least one of the individuals arrested in the sting had been caught on wiretap discussing how to make a bomb.

“Remember the Boston marathon [bombing]? I’m afraid something like that might happen again or worse,” a source familiar with the arrests told the New York Post.

The illegal entry of the individuals and subsequent release into the country highlighted growing fears about the threat of terrorism emanating from the southern border. Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., has been sounding the alarm about such a threat for months, even going so far as to point to Central Asia, where Tajikistan is located, as a potential origin for terrorist attempting to slip into the U.S. during a February press conference.

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ICE officer seen from back with "Police ICE" jacket

ARRESTS OF EIGHT ISIS-TIED MIGRANTS SHOULD BE WAKE-UP CALL FOR BIDEN ON BORDER CRISIS, SENATOR SAYS

During those February remarks, Daines noted that a “high-level individual” warned him that over 50,000 Central Asians had crossed into the U.S. illegally in 2023, with the senator expressing concerns that some of those people could be “part of sleeper cells for a possible terror attack on our soil.”

Daines doubled down on those concerns after the latest arrests, telling Fox News Digital he hopes the news serves as a “wake-up call” to President Biden.

“I’ve been sounding the alarm for months that Joe Biden’s wide-open southern border is leaving our homeland wide open to potential terrorists,” Daines said. “This news is not surprising – but if it’s not a wake-up call to Biden and the Democrats, I don’t know what will be.”

Those concerns have also been echoed by FBI Director Christopher Wray, who warned the Senate Appropriations subcommittee last week about the threat of a coordinated attack in the U.S. similar to the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) attack at a Russian concert hall earlier this year.

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Ries believes some of that wake-up call should be to encourage better information sharing among agencies when it comes to vetting individuals crossing the border, arguing that some individuals like those arrested this week are able to slip through the cracks.

Christopher Wray testifying before Congress closeup shot

Christopher Wray, director of the FBI. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

“A person can cross the border with a clean background or be from a country that doesn’t share criminal and terrorism information with our government,” Ries said. “That person can then subsequently come under U.S. investigation and trigger terrorism concerns.”

 That type of information sharing has yet to happen, Ries said, noting that such issues were also flagged as a reason the 9/11 attacks went on undetected.

“The 9/11 Commission called out some of these very same issues as reasons that led to the 9/11 terror attacks,” Ries said. “Biden has returned the U.S. to a pre-9/11 posture.”

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The White House did not immediately respond to a Fox News Digital request for comment.

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Supreme Court rules for Starbucks, limits power of judges to protect fired union organizers

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Supreme Court rules for Starbucks, limits power of judges to protect fired union organizers

The Supreme Court ruled for Starbucks on Thursday and limited the power of judges and the National Labor Relations Board to protect union organizers.

In a 9-0 decision, the court overturned a ruling by a federal judge in Tennessee who sided with the NLRB and ordered Starbucks to rehire the so-called “Memphis Seven.”

In doing so, the justices set a higher legal standard to prevent judges from deferring to the labor board in pending disputes.

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Justice Clarence Thomas said judges should follow the traditional rules before intervening and giving a temporary victory for the NLRB.

“A preliminary injunction is an ‘extraordinary’ equitable remedy that is never awarded as of right,” he said in Starbucks vs. McKinney.

Judges in different parts of the nation had followed differing approaches in these cases, and the court sided with those who said judges should be reluctant to intervene and issue a temporary injunction.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson agreed with part of the court’s ruling but dissented in part as well.

Starbucks has been aggressive in fighting against union organizers. The coffee company said it took the Memphis case to the high court seeking to “level the playing field” in these labor-management battles.

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At issue was what the company called a union-friendly legal standard that allowed judges to intervene early and to rule against the employers.

“Getting an injunction is often the whole ballgame,” said Washington attorney Lisa Blatt on behalf of the company in Starbucks vs. McKinney.

The NLRB says these temporary injunctions are needed to protect workers who were fired in violation of the labor laws. But the companies say they should not be forced to rehire employees who broke their work rules.

In February 2022, Starbucks fired seven baristas in Memphis who were seeking to organize a union. The company said the dismissals arose from “significant violations” of their safety and security policies. They said the employees had remained in the store after closing hours and invited local media to interview them.

Starbucks Workers United called this “union busting” and filed a complaint with the NLRB contending the workers were fired in retaliation for their organizing efforts.

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M. Kathleen McKinney, a regional director of the NLRB, petitioned a federal judge to issue an order protecting the workers while the board considered their complaint. U.S. District Judge Sheryl Lipman agreed there was “reasonable cause” to believe the workers had a valid claim, and she ordered Starbucks to rehire the seven employees.

Starbucks said the NLRB leans in favor of workers in these disputes and regularly wins orders from judges who force employers to rehire workers while their claims are pending for months or years before the labor board.

Their lawyers argued that in other non-labor cases, judges rarely issue such temporary injunctions and do so only if they are convinced the suing parties are likely to win in the end.

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Trump travels to DC to meet with congressional Republicans, speak with nation's top business executives

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Trump travels to DC to meet with congressional Republicans, speak with nation's top business executives

Former President Trump will travel to the nation’s capital on Thursday to take part in a series of meetings with Republicans from both the House and Senate, and attend an event with top business executives in America.

The former president’s meetings with congressional Republicans will be “looking ahead at the policies that will save the nation,” a senior Trump campaign official told Fox News Digital.

Such policies, according to the campaign official, include “Trump’s commitment to protecting seniors with no cuts to Social Security or Medicare, policies that actually secure our border and make our communities safe again, an America first foreign policy that reclaims peace through strength and world leadership, and economic policies of lower taxes that reignite the vibrant Trump economy we had just a few years ago.”

With less than five months to go before Election Day, Trump will kick off his Thursday morning at the Capitol Hill Club – a popular members-only haunt for House Republicans in Washington, D.C., that also serves as home to the Republican National Committee (RNC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) – around 9:30 a.m.

TRUMP TO MEET WITH HOUSE, SENATE REPUBLICANS IN DC THIS WEEK

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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, left, former President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (Getty Images)

An invitation sent to senior House GOP aides on Tuesday morning, obtained by Fox News Digital, showed that Trump is coming on a joint invitation from House leaders – Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., and House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y.

House GOP leaders have been almost completely in lockstep with Trump since Johnson took the speaker’s gavel in late October. Multiple sources previously told Fox News Digital that Johnson keeps Trump in the loop before announcing major House agenda items.

Trump and the GOP lawmakers will “discuss growing the House Republican majority and the 2025 legislative agenda,” Johnson’s office told Fox News Digital.

Following his meeting with House Republicans, which will be closed to the press and take place amid a House Judiciary Committee hearing to examine Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s “political prosecution of President Trump,” the former president will take part in a discussion with top business leaders.

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Trump will attend and speak at an event hosted by Business Roundtable, an association of more than 200 CEOs of America’s leading companies. There, he will make his case for a more prosperous economy should he receive a second term in the White House.

The off-the-record discussion, which is scheduled to start at 11:15 a.m., will be steered by FOX Business host Larry Kudlow, who served as the director of the National Economic Council in the Trump administration from 2018 to 2021.

Donald Trump

Former President Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Sunset Park in Las Vegas on June 9, 2024. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)

White House chief of staff Jeff Zients will also be in attendance for the roundtable discussion, speaking on behalf of President Biden while he travels overseas for the G-7 Summit in Italy.

TRUMP-BACKED PRIMARY CANDIDATES RUN THE TABLE, PROVING HIS POWER IN THE PARTY: ‘WITH HIM 110%’

After the roundtable event, Trump will meet with Senate Republicans at 12:30 p.m.

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A Trump campaign source told Fox News Digital that Trump’s meeting with Republicans from the upper chamber will be closed to the press and take place at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) headquarters.

Senate GOP Conference Chair John Barrasso’s office confirmed to Fox News Digital on Monday that Trump would address Senate Republicans this week.

“I’ve invited President Trump to meet with members of our Republican Conference,” Barrasso, R-Wyo., wrote to fellow Senate Republicans in a message obtained by Fox News Digital. “I believe it will be helpful to hear directly from President Trump about his plans for the summer and to also share our ideas for a strategic governing agenda in 2025.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who endorsed Trump’s bid to take back the White House in March, said Wednesday that he would be in attendance for the meeting and that the former president has “earned the nomination by the voters” for the 2024 presidential election. It’ll be the first time the two high-profile Republicans have met since December 2020.

After the gathering concludes, Trump and Senate Republicans are expected to speak to members of the press.

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Trump at Trump Tower after conviction

Former President Trump leaves after addressing members of the media following the verdict in his New York trial at Trump Tower on May 31, 2024. (Getty Images)

Trump’s visit comes as he continues to shape his own presidential re-election and GOP races across the country, just weeks ahead of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

The former president’s trip also comes as he continues to face a steady stream of legal battles. The deadline for Trump’s legal team to file any post-trial motions in New York v. Trump is set for the end of the day Thursday.

After meeting with congressional Republicans on Thursday, Trump will have another sitdown with Johnson and NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson, R-N.C., from his Mar-a-Lago resort on Monday, a source familiar with planning told Fox News Digital.

Fox News’ Liz Elkind, Julia Johnson, and Brooke Singman contributed to this update.

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