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How New Hampshire exposed Trump’s vulnerabilities and Biden’s path to beat him

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How New Hampshire exposed Trump’s vulnerabilities and Biden’s path to beat him


WASHINGTON − Donald Trump’s double-digit victory Tuesday in the New Hampshire Republican primary strengthened his grip on the party’s nomination yet exposed his greatest weakness as a general election candidate, reinforcing President Joe Biden’s road map to beat him in the fall.

Trump’s poor showing with New Hampshire’s independent voters − combined with some Republicans who said they won’t back the former president if he is the Republican nominee − underscored the risk Trump poses for the GOP as their nominee.

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley won 58% of New Hampshire’s independent voters, who made up about 44% of the primary electorate, compared with Trump’s 39%, according to exit polls. Haley topped Trump 56%-42% among voters with college degrees.

Perhaps most alarming for the former president, about 90% of Haley’s voters in New Hampshire − a battleground in the general election − said they would be dissatisfied if Trump were the nominee. And 83% of Haley voters said Trump, who is facing multiple criminal indictments, would be unfit for office if convicted.

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“The warning signs are there,” said Simon Rosenberg, a longtime Democratic strategist. “This idea that somehow Trump is strong and is doing better than he did in 2016 and 2020 − it’s a joke. What we are seeing is the non-MAGA wing of the Republican Party is very reticent about joining forces with MAGA in 2024.”

Abortion rights, democracy pitches have independents in mind

Independent and college-educated voters, particularly in fast-growing suburbs, have become the key swing vote in recent presidential elections. Biden’s strong showing with this group in Georgia, Michigan and other battleground states powered his victory against Trump in 2020.

“The question is: Where does that critical middle swing? Where does it go?” said Democratic strategist and author Melissa DeRosa. “And I think the Republican Party should be very fearful coming out of New Hampshire that Biden is going to have the edge with independents.”

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Even as Haley vowed to fight on, Biden pivoted fully to a rematch against Trump after the outcome in New Hampshire, declaring in a statement that “it is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee.” It’s a contest the campaign already has started bracing for.

Biden, who has long railed on “extreme MAGA” Republicans, has worked to make restoring abortion rights a top theme of his candidacy and has cast Trump as a threat to democracy − leaning into messages that energize not only Democrats but independent voters.

Abortion “is a case where a clear majority of voters side with Democrats and where you can point to Donald Trump and what he did as president in taking rights away or undermining rights on abortion access,” DeRosa said.

This week the Biden campaign launched a full-scale attack on Trump on abortion rights, reminding voters that it was Trump’s three Supreme Court appointments that produced the conservative majority that overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade decision, which provided a constitutional right to an abortion.

“Donald Trump is betting we won’t vote on this issue,” Biden said Tuesday at a rally in Manassas, Virginia, a suburb of Washington. “He’s betting that we won’t hold him responsible, either.”

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Biden kicked off the new year with a dramatic speech in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, arguing democracy is on the ballot in 2024 and accusing “MAGA voices” of abandoning the truth about the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Biden called on “Democrats, independents, mainstream Republicans” to make a choice: “We all know who Donald Trump is. The question is: Who are we?”

Biden has his own weaknesses versus Trump

Despite the warning signs for Trump in New Hampshire, Biden trails Trump in most head-to-head polls, losing among independents and underperforming with key factions of the Democratic coalition: Black, Hispanic and young voters.

Biden, who turned 81 in November, faces his own shortcomings in a Trump rematch: concerns from voters about his age, lagging enthusiasm among the Democratic base, surging migration at the southern border, and an enduring struggle to get credit for his greatest legislative accomplishments.

The Biden campaign has downplayed the polling struggles, arguing that as the election gets closer, a contrast between Trump’s campaign of “revenge and retribution” versus Biden “running to move the country forward” will crystallize for voters.

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Hardened concerns about the economy amid stubborn inflation remain another problem for Biden. Polling has regularly found a majority of voters trust Trump more than Biden to handle the economy. But improving consumer coincidence suggests Biden could finally begin to capitalize politically on positive economic metrics such as low unemployment, a booming stock market and a growing gross domestic product.

“Things are finally beginning to sink in. We passed a lot of really good legislation,” Biden said Thursday in in Superior, Wisconsin, touting his historic infrastructure law. “We knew it was going to take time for it to begin to take hold. But it’s taken hold now and turning the economy around.”

DeRosa argued the economy could become a weakness for Trump.

“The thing that you really want for the economy to thrive and grow is stability and predictability – two things Donald Trump is not,” she said. “Donald Trump is a flamethrower.”

Why Biden already anointed Trump the nominee

William Howell, a political scientist from the University of Chicago, said Biden’s early anointment of Trump as the Republican nominee provides an opportunity for him to create a “coherent, forceful” story that has been missing amid the constant drama surrounding Trump and the Republican primary.

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“What Biden needs to do is begin to shape the narrative about his first term in office and the stakes involved in his upcoming election, and he has struggled to do that,” Howell said. “He’s been at the fringes of political coverage, and he can’t be. He’s the president, and he’s running for reelection, and that that needs to change.”

Democratic strategist Josh Schwerin said the election will be decided not only by who can do a better job of turning out their base but also who can win over swing voters who aren’t in love with either candidate.

“These are voters who already dislike Trump and have likely voted against him in the past, so it’s Biden’s job to show them that he’s the better alternative,” Schwerin said. “These are voters that like what Biden has done on health care, clean-energy jobs and protecting democracy. They just need to hear about it more often and in a way that contrasts with how Trump will take these good things away.”

Trump has extreme vulnerabilities outside his hard-core MAGA base, and that presents a real opportunity for Democrats this fall, Schwerin said.

But “it’s going to take a lot of work to earn those votes,” he said.

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Rosenberg, who has argued Democrats have more reason for optimism than Biden’s polling suggests, said “something broke within the Republican Party” as a result of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision that overturned Roe v. Wade.

Since the court’s decision in 2022, Democrats exceeded expectations in the midterm elections that same year, racked up several wins in state referendums on abortion and outperformed Republicans in last year’s off-year elections.

“The burden to prove they have a strategy to win is on the Republicans; it’s not on us,” Rosenberg said, arguing the goal for the Biden campaign should be to “fully engage Trump every day.”

Meanwhile, Trump has spent much of 2024 campaigning from the courthouse, Rosenberg noted. Trump appeared in a New York courtroom Friday in his own defense in the defamation lawsuit brought by E. Jean Carroll, who accused Trump of raping her in a department store dressing room in the 1990s.

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“The truth is, for all of us working in this business, we know that Donald Trump has more negatives than any candidate has ever had in the history of the country,” Rosenberg said.

Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly known as Twitter, @joeygarrison and Michael Collins @mcollinsNEWS.



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New Hampshire

NH cold case solved 40 years after police found man’s skull in woods

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NH cold case solved 40 years after police found man’s skull in woods


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Investigators partnered with a nonprofit genetic genealogy analysis organization to identify the man who the remains belonged to.

Warren Kuchinsky was born in 1952 and last known to be alive in the mid-1970s. New Hampshire Department of Justice

After nearly four decades, a man whose skull was discovered in the New Hampshire woods has been identified.

Warren Kuchinsky was born in 1952 and was last known to be alive in the mid-1970s, New Hampshire Attorney General John Formella and New Hampshire State Police Colonel Mark Hall said in a statement. In 1986, his skull was found in a wooded area in the town of Bristol.

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At the time, investigators weren’t able to identify whose skull it was, according to officials. Last year, however, the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner partnered with the DNA Doe Project, a nonprofit organization, to solve the case using forensic genetic genealogy techniques.

Kuchinsky’s identity was confirmed through DNA testing of a surviving family member, according to officials. There is no evidence that his death was caused by foul play, according to the statement.

Founded in 2017, the DNA Doe Project partners with law enforcement, medical examiners, and volunteer genealogists to apply investigative genealogy to John and Jane Doe cases. By analyzing DNA profiles and building family trees from publicly available genetic databases and historical records, the organization has helped solve more than 250 cases nationwide.

“We are honored to have partnered with the State of New Hampshire on this case,” DNA Doe Project Team Leader Lisa Ivany said in the statement. “Through the power of investigative genetic genealogy and the dedication of our volunteer genealogists, we were able to develop a critical lead in less than 24 hours. We truly hope that this identification brings long-awaited answers to Mr. Kuchinsky’s family.”

Initial DNA testing turned up only distant matches, so the DNA Doe Project selected the case to be worked on at a virtual retreat in May 2025, according to the organization’s case profile. Over the course of a weekend, more than 40 genealogists from the U.S., Canada, England, and Scotland collaborated virtually to work on the case.

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Within hours, the team discovered that the unidentified man had roots in New Hampshire and Quebec, according to the profile. They later zeroed in on Kuchinsky, who had attended school in Plymouth, N.H., but had no official proof of life past 1970.

“This identification reflects the power of partnership and scientific advancement,” Formella said in the statement. “The dedication of the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner, the investigative support of the New Hampshire State Police, and the extraordinary work of the DNA Doe Project have restored a name to an individual who had been unidentified for nearly 40 years. We are grateful for their professionalism and commitment.”

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New Hampshire

New Hampshire House Advances One of The Nation’s Most Extreme Transgender Bathroom Bans

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New Hampshire House Advances One of The Nation’s Most Extreme Transgender Bathroom Bans


The proposal would fine transgender people up to $5,000 for using bathrooms aligned with their gender identity.

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Bathroom bans targeting transgender people have been spreading rapidly across the United States. In previous years, adult bathroom bans in public buildings were limited to a handful of states with extreme laws. This year, they have become one of the primary vehicles for anti-trans legislation nationwide. Kansas was the first to act, passing a bathroom bounty hunter system and invalidating transgender people’s IDs. Idaho and Missouri began advancing their own bills. Now, the New Hampshire House of Representatives has passed its own version — one of the most extreme in the United States, which states that a trans person using the bathroom of their gender identity is a crime under the state civil rights act, violations of which carries hefty penalties. The bill passed 181-164 on Wednesday night, just weeks after Governor Kelly Ayotte vetoed a separate bathroom ban. Republicans are now sending her something far more aggressive — raising the question of whether they are trying to move the goalposts or simply daring her to veto again.

“Notwithstanding any other provision of law, with the exception of RSA 21:3, RSA 21:54, and paragraph II below, all multi-user facilities, including bathrooms, restrooms, and locker rooms located in buildings owned, leased, or operated by any municipality shall be used based on the individual’s biological sex,” reads the new bill. This prohibition is expansive: it applies to parks, rest stops, airports, civic buildings, and more, and could leave transgender people struggling to find a public place to use the restroom across the state.

The bill contains a novel enforcement mechanism not seen in any other state. It declares that a transgender person “asserting” that their gender identity allows them to use the bathroom is against the law under the state civil rights act, turning civil rights protections that were meant to be protective of transgender people into a weapon against them. “It shall be unlawful for any person to assert that their gender identity is a sex other than that defined in RSA 21:3 for the purposes of accessing places or services restricted on the basis of sex,” reads the bill. Such violations could result in fines of up to $5,000 per incident and even jail time if a person violates a resulting court injunction by continuing to use the restroom.

The bill also contains provisions for private businesses. It permits any owner or operator of a “place of public accommodation” — a category that under New Hampshire law includes hotels, restaurants, theaters, retail stores, bars, and concert venues — to restrict bathrooms by assigned sex at birth. The bill then immunizes those businesses from discrimination claims: “Adoption or enforcement of a policy pursuant to this section shall not be deemed discrimination under RSA 354-A or any other state law,” it reads.

A separate bill, HB 1217, also passed on Wednesday. That bill permits governmental buildings and businesses to classify bathrooms and locker rooms by assigned sex at birth — similar to the bathroom bans Ayotte has already vetoed. It passed by an even wider margin, 187-163. It contains no enforcement mechanism, but rather, states that bathroom bans and sports bans are not discriminatory towards transgender people under New Hampshire law.

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The bills are part of a larger movement towards bathroom bans for transgender people. Just last month, Kansas passed a bathroom ban that allows every citizen in the state to become a bounty hunter, where reporting transgender people in bathrooms can net them $1,000 per trans person caught. This law also invalidated trans people’s drivers licenses in the state. Meanwhile, Idaho and Missouri are both advancing extreme anti-trans bathroom bans of their own, with Idaho’s ban even applying to private businesses, making it against the law for a private business to allow a trans person to use the bathroom that matches their gender identity.

The bills are substantially more extreme than the one vetoed by Governor Ayotte just weeks ago. In a veto statement of a bathroom ban last month, Ayotte stated, “I believe there are important and legitimate privacy and safety concerns raised by biological males using places such as female locker rooms and being placed in female correctional facilities… At the same time, I see that House Bill 148 is overly broad and impractical to enforce, potentially creating an exclusionary environment for some of our citizens.”

It remains unclear why Republicans are pushing an even more extreme version of a bill their own governor has already vetoed three times. The bill still needs to pass the New Hampshire Senate and be signed by Ayotte to become law. One possibility is that the more extreme HB 1442 is designed as cover for HB 1217 — making that bill appear moderate by comparison and improving its chances of earning a signature. Another is that Republicans believe they can pressure Ayotte into signing, or are simply laying the groundwork for an override attempt down the line. Regardless, HB 1442 is one of the most extreme bathroom bans moving through any state legislature in the country, and transgender people across New England will be watching closely as it advances to the Senate.

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New Hampshire

Cher’s Son Arrested Twice In The Granite State | Child Rapist Gets 15 To 30 | Crashes: Nearby News NH

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Cher’s Son Arrested Twice In The Granite State | Child Rapist Gets 15 To 30 | Crashes: Nearby News NH


CONCORD, NH — Here are the Top 10 most popular stories and posts from around New Hampshire Patch sites last week.

  1. Elijah Blue Allman Arrested Again In New Hampshire, Charged With Burglary In Windham After Concord Incident: After being accused of assault at St. Paul’s School, the son of Cher and the late Gregg Allman was arrested for mischief, breach in Windham.
  2. Elijah Blue Allman Arrested After Incident At St. Paul’s School In Concord: The son of Cher and the late Gregg Allman was accused of threatening, trespassing and assault in New Hampshire.
  3. Man From Concord Sent To Prison After Raping, Taking Pictures Of Young Girls In 2022 And 2023: Follow-Up: Jonathan Shaw of Concord pleaded guilty to sexual abuse images and sexual assault charges and was sentenced to 15 to 30 years in prison.
  4. Downtown Shooting | How Much Income Makes Someone ‘Rich’ | Sex Sale Gone Bad On Facebook? Nearby News NH: Also: Teen accused of “unprovoked” attack; meth distributor sent to prison; Boston MedFlight relocates; DUI arrests; wrestling results.
  5. 4-Vehicle Crash On The Concord Heights Sends Drivers To The Hospital: Video: 2 drivers were taken to Concord Hospital after a multi-vehicle crash on Loudon Road on Wednesday afternoon.
  6. Third Arrest Made In Facebook Cleaning Services Or Sex Sale Gone Bad Stabbing Case In Manchester: Melysia Caron, a Queen City career criminal with several convictions and suspended sentences, faces robbery, kidnapping, and other charges.
  7. Mass. Man Seriously Injured After Being Struck While In I-93 Breakdown Lane: NH State Police Roundup: Londonderry man arrested after domestic incident, standoff. Plus, arrest blotters from around the Granite State.
  8. Concord Police Investigating Minivan Crashing Into Guardrail And Down An Embankment: The driver, a man from Epsom, was taken to Concord Hospital on Thursday night after a crash at Route 106 and Loudon Road.
  9. Man Struck In Breakdown Lane | Thief Accused Of Robbery | Income Tax Proposal Floated For Schools: PM Patch: Declining pool of nurses raises concerns; NH DOS settles sexual harassment lawsuit; child advocate nominee praised and criticized; more.
  10. Cher’s Son Arrested Again In NH, Accused Of Burglary | Freezing Rain, More Snow Coming | More: PM Patch NH: NH wrestlers head to New Englands; fun things to do; historical society to get climate control upgrade; nonprofits get $1.8M from casino.

Here are some other posts readers may have missed:

Identity Of 1986 Human Remains Found In Bristol Confirmed Via DNA Investigation





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