Those trying to decipher America’s strange but undoubtedly consequential presidential election this year can glean some clues from two of our oldest and strongest allies.
Britain, though diminished by its dubious decision to leave the European Union through Brexit in 2016 and its subsequent succession of inept Conservative prime ministers, is still the most familiar comparison. It’s also one with recent historical parallels.
Ronald Reagan’s victory in 1980 was preceded by Margaret Thatcher’s takeover of the Conservative Party in 1975 and her sweeping victory in the 1979 election. It made her the longest-serving prime minister of the 20th century until her party unceremoniously dumped her in 1990.
Thatcher, like Reagan, aggressively opposed the Soviet Union, and matched his tax-cutting and privatization efforts. In her last year, she played a key role in convincing Reagan’s successor, George H.W. Bush, to launch an international effort rolling back Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s conquest of Kuwait.
In the 1990s, Bill Clinton’s “New Democrat” image and his neoliberal economic policies were echoed by Tony Blair’s “New Labour,” reviving a moribund party that swept to victory in 1997. Blair lasted nearly as long as Thatcher, until Labour regulars turned on him for his unwavering support for George W. Bush’s misbegotten invasion of Iraq.
Labour couldn’t produce another leader with Blair’s appeal, and stumbled from election to election, with a 2019 wipeout reducing the party to its lowest standing in nearly a century.
Then the Conservatives split over Brexit and went through five prime ministers in seven years; one, Liz Truss, lasted just six weeks. The Conservatives’ chaos and Britain’s dismal economic performance opened the door to Labour once again.
In an election later this year, likely either May or October, Keir Starmer, Labour leader since 2020, is the odds-on favorite.
Starmer reminds some of Blair, but he comes from the North, not London, and presents a traditional Labour platform shorn of its excesses. He emphasizes restoring public services and investing in “green energy” to lead an economic revival – ideas reminiscent of Joe Biden.
In the Middle East, Israel is also certain to hold an election, though when it will fall depends on how long the war in Gaza lasts.
For almost 15 years, Benjamin Netanyahu of the conservative Likud bloc has fought to maintain his authority as prime minister, now in an increasingly desperate attempt to escape accountability for Israel’s disastrous unpreparedness for the horrific Hamas attacks on Oct. 7.
Even worse, Netanyahu cynically funded Hamas in its overlordship of Gaza, dividing it from the much larger West Bank led by the Palestinian Authority – the better to short-circuit any discussion of the “two state” solution leading to Palestinian self-rule. He can’t last much longer.
Netanyahu shares power with opposition leader Benny Gantz along with the defense minister in a “war cabinet.” Gantz’s presence as a check on Netanyahu has kept Israel united following the unprecedented hostage-taking and massacres by Hamas.
When the war ends, Gantz will return to opposition and Netanyahu must call an election he will likely lose. He currently runs 20 points behind – as do the Conservatives under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in Britain – and estimates are that Likud could lose a third of its seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.
While almost unknown to most American readers, Starmer and Gantz have similarities.
Both are new to politics. Starmer is a career public prosecutor first elected to Parliament in 2015. He is measured but not colorless, and a welcome contrast to the notorious Boris Johnson, removed by Conservatives despite his 2019 triumph.
Gantz was a career military officer who rose to Chief of Staff – a vital and respected role in a nation at war with its neighbors virtually since it was founded, with U.S. support, in 1948. Gantz entered politics only in 2018, erred in collaborating with Netanyahu after a drawn election, but has since recovered his standing.
As a commander, Gantz was decisive but patient – qualities one observes in the current U.S. president.
History has its cycles; parties rise and fall. That’s why it’s so odd Donald Trump is attempting to turn back the clock and pretend his 2020 defeat never happened.
A candidate who in 2016 executed a hostile takeover of the Republican Party has now made it a wholly owned subsidiary, even as his financial empire collapses under the weight of countless court judgments.
In Britain, in Israel and in the United States those who attempt to deny reality to pursue or hang on to power are unlikely to be rewarded by voters.
Steady as she goes may not be an exciting slogan, but it may be exactly what our convulsive politics needs.
Douglas Rooks has been a Maine editor, columnist and reporter since 1984. His new book, “Calm Command: U.S. Chief Justice Melville Fuller in His Times, 1888-1910,” is available in bookstores and at www.melvillefuller.com. He welcomes comment at drooks@tds.net.
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