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Fox News Power Rankings: With VP picks, Harris and Trump miss opportunities to broaden their appeal

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Fox News Power Rankings: With VP picks, Harris and Trump miss opportunities to broaden their appeal

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Trump still has an edge, but the race is closer than ever. That is the outlook in the first Fox News Power Rankings with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket and two new running mate picks.

The race to be ‘someone else’

When this cycle began, most voters didn’t want President Biden or former President Donald Trump in the race.

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In a Fox News survey conducted weeks after the midterms, 64% of voters said they wouldn’t like to see Biden run for re-election, and 58% said they weren’t happy about Trump running either.

Fox News Power Rankings forecast shows a slight Trump edge over Harris. (Fox News)

Voters were not glad Biden was running in 2024. (Fox News)

Throughout his campaign, reliably blue voters drifted away from Biden, and he lagged with independents.

The top reason was clear and consistent: voters thought he was too old for a second term.

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Last month, the president acquiesced to his doubters and stepped out of the race. On Monday, Harris became the Democratic nominee.

Meanwhile, Republicans have been rallying around Trump. 

Voters are not glad that Trump is running in 2024, either. (Fox News)

But the former president has proven there is a ceiling in his level of support, particularly with independents.

Collectively, the polls suggest that the winner of the 2024 presidential race could be the candidate who reminds voters least of Biden or Trump.

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In other words, Harris and Trump each have up to 90 days to prove they can be “someone else.”

The type of “someone else” matters. 

VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS NAMES MINNESOTA GOV. TIM WALZ AS HER RUNNING MATE

A majority of Americans say Biden is too liberal. In June, 56% of adults said they felt that way, and so did 56% of independent voters.

Trump’s “MAGA” movement is also unpopular. In a survey last year, only 24% of Americans said they had a positive view of the movement, and only 12% of independents agreed.

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That makes both candidates’ vice presidential picks missed opportunities.

Fox News Power Rankings’ election countdown calendar. (Fox News)

There is also little time left in the race. Most Americans now cast a ballot before election day and early voting kicks off in 30 days.

After a sleepy start, America is sprinting to the finish line.

Eliminating the age problem gives Harris a strong start, but Walz doesn’t help her 

If Harris’ goal is to not remind voters of Joe Biden, she starts with a clear advantage. The vice president is 22 years younger than her boss.

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Fox News Power Rankings analysis shows that Harris has wiped out Biden’s polling deficit. (Fox News)

That has helped wipe out Biden’s deficit in national polls.

After the presidential debate, Biden had support from 42% of registered voters in an average of polls, with Trump at 49% (NYT, WSJ). That is a 7-point gap.

In the first polls from the same outlets after Harris became the likely nominee, she improved to 47%, with Trump still at 49% (NYT, WSJ). That is a race within the margin of error.

We know age was the driver of this upswing because when these polls were conducted, Harris hadn’t changed anything else.

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Tuesday, she chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.

Polling showed whether Biden is too liberal. (Fox News)

Walz has supported a long list of socially progressive policies. He signed a law that made illegal immigrants eligible for drivers’ licenses, and another that, per a memo circulated by allies, made Minnesota a “Trans Refuge State.”

He has also faced criticism for his slow response to rioting, looting, and arson after the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis.

With reporting over the weekend that Harris had narrowed her choices to Walz or moderate Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who had a 61% favorability rating in a must-win swing state, Harris’ decision seems unhelpful to her campaign.

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Walz is unlikely to hurt the campaign either.

His signature policies include expansions of paid family and medical leave, legislation protecting abortion rights, education funding and drug affordability. 

Fox News Power Rankings analysis shows the top three issues in battleground states. (Fox News)

Those positions are all in line with Biden and Harris’ agenda over the last four years and are popular in battleground states.

Democrats are also excited about his “folksy” demeanor, military service, and working-class background.

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And while there is no polling evidence so far that Walz has outsized appeal with Midwestern voters, he doesn’t underperform with them either. In the midterms, he won re-election by seven points.

The problem is more that Walz doesn’t help Harris win over independent voters who already say that Biden is too liberal.

Trump can’t redefine himself, and Vance doesn’t help either

Meanwhile, while voters prefer Trump on policy, he must show independents that he is a more honest and temperate man than he was in his first term.

Surviving a terrifying assassination attempt gave Trump an opportunity to do this, and surrogates were eager to play up the “changed” Donald Trump throughout the Republican National Convention.

An uneven convention speech and an aggressive appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists convention in Chicago last week proved Trump is still Trump.

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His running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, has been unhelpful so far.

Vance earned his spot on the ticket because he was the most aligned to Trump and the “MAGA” movement out of all the leading candidates. The polling shows that “MAGA” has limited appeal outside the Republican base.

New polling shows that “MAGA” is broadly unpopular with voters. (Fox News)

Vance has also had to defend several comments he made about women.

In a 2021 interview, he called some Democratic politicians “childless cat ladies,” and the same year, said rape and incest were possible circumstances of a child’s birth that society views as “inconvenient.” Vance said he meant society sometimes sees babies as inconvenient in a Fox interview last week.

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Like Walz, Vance brings a Midwestern background to the ticket.

Republicans are excited about his ability to empathize with working-class voters who propelled Trump to victory in 2016 and say his military experience will be an asset.

He has cosponsored bipartisan legislation to lower the price of insulin and make banks more accountable when they fail.

FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: IS KAMALA HARRIS UNBURDENED BY WHAT HAS BEEN?

And in the midterms, Vance won his race by about six points against one of the strongest Democratic candidates in decades.

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Overall, Trump’s combative personality and the Vance pick are not quite the strategic mistakes that some analysts say they are.

The “MAGA” movement excites core Republican voters, and firing up the base was a key factor in Trump’s 2016 win.

But depressing Democratic turnout was also key to that victory. The polling now shows that Harris has fired up her base too.

Trump has an edge in the forecast, but it’s a very close race

The Fox News Power Rankings map shows the forecast as of Aug. 7, 2024. (Fox News)

With Harris at 47% and Trump at 49%, the national race is very tight.

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Harris’ five-point improvement over Biden comes from upswings in two of three key groups that had drifted away from the incumbent president.

Harris has flipped the race with young voters. Biden had support from 40% of voters aged 18-29 after the debate; the vice president now sits at 56%.

She has similarly improved with Hispanic voters, increasing her support from 41% after the debate to 57% now.

Fox News Power Rankings show Democrats’ performance with key groups. (Fox News)

Trump continues to perform much better with Black voters than he did in 2020.

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That year, the Fox News Voter Analysis had just 8% of African American or Black voters supporting Trump. He pulls 23% among registered voters in the same groups now, nearly tripling his support.

Watch that number as election day draws closer. There is evidence in past cycles that many Black voters “come home” to the Democrats, but the margin could determine the winner of the election.

With Democrats re-energized, Harris looks stronger in battleground Minnesota

Fox News Power Rankings’ list of most competitive swing states. (Fox News )

Only one competitive state moves further into Democratic territory in this forecast, and it’s Walz’s home, Minnesota.

Harris already had an advantage in this reliably blue state.

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In a set of Fox News battleground state polls from late July, Harris had support from 52% of voters in Minnesota, 6 points above Trump at 46%.

That is just about the same as Biden’s vote share in 2020.

Minnesota has also voted for Democrats in every election since 1972.

Fox News Power Rankings’ list of less competitive swing states (Fox News)

Trump rallied there last week, and his campaign announced they were opening more field offices there in June, so it remains in a “competitive” category.

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But unless there is a future drop in Harris’ support, she is in the driver’s seat. Minnesota moves from Lean D to Likely D.

A big month ahead for the Power Rankings

This is the first of several Fox News Power Rankings forecasts in August.

Look for the first Senate, House, and governor forecasts for 2024 starting Monday next week.

Then, on Sunday, Fox News Democracy 24 special coverage begins for the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

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That’s also the date for the next Power Rankings Issues Tracker, Fox’s polling tracker for the issues and candidate qualities that will define this race.

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Maine

He’s been to every town in Maine, mostly for something to say. | Column

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He’s been to every town in Maine, mostly for something to say. | Column


Jeff Hewett of Cape Elizabeth said that there are 454 cities and towns in Maine. He has been to all of them. He keeps a map of Maine near his office in the distribution area of the Maine Trust for Local News. (Daryn Slover/Staff Photographer)

Several years ago, Jeff Hewett was at a dinner party when the subject of obituaries came up. He realized, other than being “an avid Red Sox fan” — as he’d seen in so many posthumous biographies — he wasn’t going to have much to say in his.

He didn’t have kids and worked the same job for most of his career. Another dinner guest reminded him that he could say he’s a cribbage player, but again, so are most Maine men, he said. Hewett needed something more.

An eighth-generation Mainer who’s proud of his roots, he decided he was going to visit every incorporated town and city in the state — 454, by his count — and, unlike most people who claim to have “been everywhere,” he would take a picture to prove it.

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Hewett, 64, who lives in Cape Elizabeth, is easing into retirement from a 38-year career in printing sales that started at the Times Record in Brunswick and, in 2019, was relocated to the South Portland plant that prints the Portland Press Herald, now owned by the Maine Trust for Local News.

In embarking on his quest, Hewett didn’t map out a route to take through the state or choose a certain time or place to start. He just happened to be on Isle au Haut in the fall of 2018, on his annual hiking trip with a group of friends, when — remembering his obituary idea — he realized he probably wasn’t going to make it out to the remote island off the Midcoast again anytime soon. So, he found the town hall and asked his buddy to take a picture of him.

When they got back to the mainland, he realized he could check off Blue Hill while he was there, and Belfast, too.

“It started the ball rolling,” he said.

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Hewett on Isle Au Haut, where he started his mission of visiting every town and city in Maine. (Courtesy of Jeff Hewett)

Every photo after the first one has been a selfie. Not that he hasn’t had plenty of company on his travels. There’s been his neighbor and frequent cribbage opponent Mike Drinan, who gave him a ride on his boat to Chebeague and Long islands in Casco Bay. Client-turned-friend Janet Acker did the same to Swan’s Island, off Bass Harbor. One of his hiking buddies, Ron Morrison, stuck around after a trip to make a few stops by Bangor and has accompanied Hewett elsewhere.

He’s gone by himself at times. Once, after returning from the Sugarloaf area, he realized he’d missed a town. So, one Saturday, he drove back up to New Vineyard, took a photo and went home.

“Some of them were just random. ‘Hey, we’re in Lyman; let’s find the town office,’” he said.

Most of the time, he’s been accompanied by his wife, Mary, whom he met on a blind date, though she knew him from his days bartending in the Old Port, he says, and “wanted nothing to do with me.” Their 30th anniversary is in September.

He says she partly comes along for the free lunch, the quality of which can vary depending on where they are. (They were pleasantly surprised by burgers they had in the Penobscot County town of Lincoln.)

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She’s also told him that she likes just standing back and watching him talk to the people he meets wherever they are, whether it’s someone working at a town office — where he takes all his selfies, if the town has one — or giving him directions when the GPS leads to the middle of nowhere. (His car has never broken down, but he’s gotten lost plenty.)

Hewett often explains what he’s up to, which sparks a conversation. He remembers telling a woman working in a town office in northern Maine — in Allagash, he thinks — that he had come a long way to see her that day, from the Cumberland County town of Cape Elizabeth. Oh, she said, I’m from South Portland.

“Being in the business I’m in, you wind up having a connection everywhere,” he said.

He was staying with friends in Houlton when they ran into a man introduced to Hewett as Don Douglas, a member of the Maine Baseball Hall of Fame. He asked Douglas if he knew fellow hall-of-famer Bob Curry from his neck of the woods. Ah, yes, he said, the crafty left-hander.

“People know people,” Hewett said.

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His “gift of gab” has helped him get rides from strangers on islands, when boats have dropped him too far from the town office to walk. There was the harbormaster on Chebeague, and the woman on Swan’s in an old Subaru, who offered to show him and his wife the prettiest beach on the island, then left them in her driveway while she went to have lunch with her brother. He flagged down a pickup truck for a ride back to his friend’s boat. When he told her what happened, she said she knew the house he was talking about; that woman was probably one of the Rockefellers.

The same skill for conversation has been essential to his career, as a liaison between commercial printing clients from all over New England and newspaper production staff. It’s also what landed him the job as the de facto tour guide for the South Portland printing plant, being one of few people who can both explain how the process works and entertain a crowd.

His travels have given him something to talk about with people back at home, too. At least a couple times a week, he said, a place he’s been will come up in conversation, when he’s asking someone where they’re from or talking about their Maine vacation. If you’re going to Washington County, he’ll tell you, Eastport has more going on than Lubec. If you’re thinking about visiting Vinalhaven, he’ll suggest you get on the ferry to North Haven instead.

Hewett outside the Quonset hut that serves as Passadumkeag’s town office. (Courtesy of Jeff Hewett)

He’ll give you an assessment of the town office there, too, from the utilitarian Quonset huts in places like Passadumkeag and the unimpressive sign on a flagpole in Ripley to the stately Queen Anne-style town hall in New Gloucester and the quaint, white clapboard building in Bowerbank on Sebec Lake.

He can show you. He’s got all the photos on his phone and in a searchable gallery on a website that his brother made for him. Flipping through them shows his thick gray hair and beard getting lighter over the six-year span. Sometimes, he’s in sunglasses or a baseball cap, others a winter hat. In the one in front of the Medford town office, he thinks he looks like a lobsterman who just returned from sea, though his tan is actually from driving with the top down on the 2006 Porsche Boxster he bought in 2020 to improve his cruising.

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Hewett after a long drive to Medford. (Courtesy of Jeff Hewett)

“Do I look like I’ve had a hard day there, or what?” he said.

A few of the photos are at the signs for town lines, when he couldn’t find a municipal office, like in the Washington County town of Vanceboro. Border patrol agents there couldn’t help him either; they all live in Calais, they told him.

His final stop, at Frye Island in September of 2024, didn’t fail to deliver a tale worth recounting. He and his friend were sitting at a cafe by the ferry landing when a public works crew showed up. The dock plate was broken, and cars — like the one they decided to take over — wouldn’t be able to board the boat to Raymond until it was fixed. Fortunately, a few hours later, they were back on the mainland, his mission accomplished.

Hewett has taken plenty of day trips since then, but in more random directions now that he doesn’t have a destination to check off — to Bath in search of an electric fry pan or Parsonsfield just to go for a ride.

Although he knows about the Boothbay Harbor couple who’s been to every Maine post office, he hasn’t heard of anyone else who’s visited every town.

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As he cuts back on his work week, he plans to start tackling the state’s 28 or so plantations, most in far-flung places. He’s looking forward to revisiting Aroostook County and to his first trip to Matinicus, an island 20 miles out to sea.

It will give him something to do with his newfound free time, and something else to say.



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Massachusetts

Healey doubles down on early college: ‘For too long, money’s been a barrier’ – The Boston Globe

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Healey doubles down on early college: ‘For too long, money’s been a barrier’ – The Boston Globe


“We want to make sure that all students have access to a great college experience, if they so choose, and we also know that for too long, money’s been a barrier,” Healey told the Globe in an interview this week. “We know from studies that students who’ve done early college have a greater persistence rate, that is staying in college once they start.”

Governor Maura Healey spoke during the State of the Commonwealth address at the Massachusetts State House on Jan. 22 in Boston. Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff

The state says the program is working so far, with about 66 percent of early college graduates immediately enrolling in higher education after high school, and about 82 percent of students returning for a second year. Students from middle-income as well as wealthy families can also participate in the program at no cost.

Proponents of the state’s early college program say exposing teenagers, especially first-generation and low-income students, to college campuses and coursework in high school helps build confidence and increases the likelihood they will go on to pursue higher education.

“It has proven to be a really productive way of creating a bridge for students, many of whom are from communities in which they may not have envisioned themselves as college material,” said David Silva, Salem State University’s provost. “It raises the level of conscious awareness that college is an option.”

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In January, Healey announced an additional $8.2 million for early college grants to support dozens of new partnerships between high schools and colleges. The state’s fiscal 2026 budget included over $14 million for early college, which supports programs with more than 75 high schools, as of last fall. The governor hopes to double the number of participating students to 20,000 by 2028.

High school students from all grades and income levels participate in the program, which includes transportation to and from the participating college campuses, as well as support services such as tutoring and advising. Some high school teachers are also trained to support professors teaching the classes.

“I want all students in the state to have access,” Healey said.

Early college dovetails with other efforts in the state to let students graduate in three years, resulting in quicker, less expensive degrees. The state’s board of higher education recently voted to allow colleges and universities to begin experimenting with innovative degree offerings, which has prompted a heated debate over whether bachelor’s degrees should be condensed.

To Healey, it’s an enticing opportunity for pragmatic students who are interested in pursuing college but wary of the price tag, and said she is prepared to push colleges to experiment. A three-year path might not work for every discipline, but Healey sees ample opportunity for colleges to rethink the length of many degree offerings.

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“We attract students from all over the world and all over the country,” Healey said. “Imagine if we can innovate and be the first to really make a three-year degree something that you can do — imagine the numbers we’re going to recruit and draw to Massachusetts to take advantage of that in our schools.”

Combining early college with a three-year degree could theoretically cut the cost of a bachelor’s degree by up to 75 percent if a student graduated high school with two years’ worth of credit.

Several students told the Globe it was a seamless transition from early college to four-year programs at public universities in Massachusetts.

Sebastian Rivera, a first-generation college student from Lowell, is working on his bachelor’s degree at the University of Massachusetts Lowell after his high school guidance counselor informed him he was on track to graduate with 23 college credits.

A typical bachelor’s degree requires 120 credits. Realizing he could save a whole year’s worth of tuition was “really a game-changer,” Rivera said.

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“That was super powerful to know that I belong in higher education and I have the confidence to tackle this because I was able to do college in high school,” Rivera said.

Gianna McColley wasn’t sure she was going to pursue higher education after high school because of the rising costs. She enrolled at Whittier Regional Vocational Technical High School in Haverhill, so she would have workforce skills “no matter what.” But experiencing college courses as a teenager made her realize that a bachelor’s degree was within reach if she could walk away with debt-free.

She graduated high school in 2023 with an associate’s degree in psychology before enrolling at Salem State University. McColley is now on a Fubright grant in Spain after graduating with her bachelor’s degree in two years, having studied abroad in Spain and Mexico. McColley said it was at times exhausting and stressful to commit to such a heavy academic load in high school, but said her efforts paid off when she saw how easy it was to transfer her credits to Salem State.

“It’s just a really amazing opportunity,” McColley said. “If there is something offered through your high school I don’t think there is a reason not to take advantage.”

Not all educators are sure the early college program is the best use of state resources.

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Nancy Niemi, president of Framingham State University, is skeptical about plans to grow the program and is concerned about the lack of a “strategic plan or framework for helping us figure out, as a Commonwealth,” the best path forward.

“Early College is the Wild West still, across the country and across the Commonwealth,” Niemi said.

She isn’t convinced that high schoolers are developmentally ready for college coursework, and she worries about the cost for Framingham State as the program grows. The state reimburses colleges $180 per credit for early college programs, and institutions must cover any remaining balance for support services, including advising on academic work and possible career trajectories.

“I cannot afford the Early College Program I have,” Niemi said. “Our director’s time is constantly split, thinking about how am I going to get this next dollar? All of that makes me very worried about putting a lot of hope into early college programs.”

Other educators and many students seem optimistic about the state’s efforts to reduce college costs.

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Early college has broadened Salem High School students’ “horizons of what they feel like they’re even capable of doing,” said Meghan Grosskopf Sousa, director of Salem High School’s College and Career Center.

The program allows students “to really jump start their college career and for their families to save potentially a year of college tuition and fees without ever even touching their financial aid availability,” said David Crane, dean of the College of Continuing Studies at Bridgewater State University.

Bridgewater has about 360 students in its early college program, and an additional 90 dual enrollment students, Crane said. Dual enrollment students also earn college credit in high school, but they may have to pay for the credits and must work out the logistics on their own.

Edward Coelho, an 18-year-old Framingham High School senior, takes classes at the university to earn college credit and helps other students find higher education opportunities. Taylor Coester for The Boston Globe

Edward Coelho, a senior at Framingham High School, expects to graduate with six college credits and is waiting to hear back from his three top schools: Amherst College, Emmanuel College, and Boston University.

Coelho, the son of Brazilian immigrants, said he has already learned from “fantastic professors” through the early college program. His parents have ingrained in him that “education is our gateway to a greater path,” and he is eager to pursue a bachelor’s degree in biology.

Coelho volunteers with younger students, weighing whether they could benefit from college. He believes three-year degree offerings would lead to “a great rise in people trying to get their bachelor’s degree.”

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“A lot of kids don’t know if they can succeed in college and they don’t know what they want to do,” Coelho said. “I know a lot of kids who are struggling now, and they’re very scared if they go to college, it’ll be a waste of money, a waste of time.”


Hilary Burns can be reached at hilary.burns@globe.com. Follow her @Hilarysburns.





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New Hampshire

Bill requiring NH voters to consider school tax caps clears House

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Bill requiring NH voters to consider school tax caps clears House


Republicans in the New Hampshire House have passed a bill to require local voters to consider capping school property taxes every two years. The proposal, which cleared the House along near party lines Wednesday, is the latest in a series of efforts by Republican leaders to curb growth in local school spending.

Under the bill, voters across New Hampshire would weigh in at every November election on whether to block increases in school spending by capping local tax increases and SAU administrative spending.

Before the House adopted the plan, its lead sponsor, Weare Republican Rep. Ross Berry, argued that the more people vote on a tax cap, the better local spending decisions would reflect the will of people.

“The ultimate form of local control is allowing the most voters to opine on the issue,” Berry said.

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But critics of the proposal, including Londonderry Republican Rep. Kristine Perez, said the policy’s bottom line objective is less about maximizing voters’ participation than reducing school distinct spending, regardless of local circumstances.

“Putting a cap on the school portion of property taxes is just another way of saying ‘cutting school budgets,’ ” Perez said.

GOP leaders in the House have for the past few years pushed policies aimed at limiting local local property tax increases by giving voters new tools to curb government spending. But voters have largely rejected these.

After the vote, House Majority Leader Jason Osbornse said this policy will be different.

“Today we delivered. If school boards want to jack up your property taxes, they’re going to have to convince voters at the ballot box, not outlast them in a gymnasium at midnight,” Osborne said.

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But Megan Tuttle, who leads NH-NEA, the state’s largest teachers union, said this bill would only harm schools that are already under strain due to rising healthcare and special education costs.

“Instead of fixing our state’s broken public education funding system, these politicians are pushing yet another attempt to implement arbitrary school budget caps that will make it very difficult for school districts that are already underfunded,” she said.

The bill now moves the New Hampshire Senate. Republican leaders there have been leery of past efforts by the House to impose caps on local school spending.

Behind the headlines you read on our website, there’s a dedicated team of journalists working hard to bring you local news you can trust. On any given day, that can look like:

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I believe that journalists, when we do our jobs well, can play a crucial role in connecting people and making communities stronger. But we can’t do this work without you.

Your donations, in any amount, can help keep independent journalism vibrant in New Hampshire — and accessible to everyone, no paywall required.

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Sincerely,
Dan Barrick
News Director





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