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What we know about the ‘victory plan’ Zelensky is presenting to Biden today

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What we know about the ‘victory plan’ Zelensky is presenting to Biden today

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to present the victory plan to his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden at the White House on Sept. 26, a potentially pivotal moment in the long-running saga of Washington’s support for Ukraine.

Zelensky, who is visiting the U.S. this week, has said that the plan is designed to push Russian President Vladimir Putin into a fair peace agreement by boosting Ukraine’s firepower and giving it an upper hand two and a half years into Russia’s full-scale invasion. Zelensky has not publicly specified how it will achieve this.

Here’s what we know so far…

The timing

The announcement that Kyiv was preparing a victory plan came as Ukraine gained momentum following its surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The ongoing operation, the first significant invasion of Russian territory since World War II, was a significant blow to the Kremlin and Putin.

It exposed Russia’s inability to defend its own territory and challenged Putin’s so-called “red lines” aimed at deterring Ukraine’s Western allies from stepping up weaponry supplies. It also showed Ukraine’s backers that Kyiv could still seize the initiative on the battlefield.

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As well as riding the momentum of the Kursk operation, events in the U.S. could also be a big factor in Kyiv’s push to present the plan — the November U.S. presidential election that might bring former President Donald Trump back to the White House and jeopardize the U.S. support for Ukraine.

The content

The fine details of the plan are yet to be made public. It is expected to address military, political, diplomatic, and economic strategies.

A source close to Zelensky told the Kyiv Independent last week that it aims “to create such conditions and such an atmosphere that Russia will no longer be able to ignore the peace formula and the peace summit.”

But some elements have been revealed. The head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak earlier this week said that an invitation to join NATO is part of the plan.

According to the information obtained by the Kyiv Independent on Sept. 22, Ukraine would ask for NATO membership within the months, not years.

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Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Yermak also said that the five-point victory plan includes both diplomatic and military components.

US President Joe Biden shakes hands with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at an event with world leaders launching a Joint Declaration of Support for Ukrainian Recovery and Reconstruction on the sidelines of the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, US on Sep. 25, 2024. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP via Getty Images)

“I also urged our partners to ignore Russia’s threats of escalation,” he said.

One element certain to be in the plan is the U.S. and other allies’ approval for Ukraine to use long-range weapons including Western-provided missiles to target military sites deep inside Russia.

Kyiv has long been pushing for restrictions to be lifted as it would enable Ukraine to destroy the airfields from which Russian aircraft are taking off to attack Ukrainian civilian infrastructure as well as degrade Russian air defenses.

And we also know one thing that won’t be in the plan – a partial ceasefire.

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After a German media report suggested otherwise, Zelensky personally refuted the claim.

“There is not and cannot be any alternative to peace, no freezing of the war or any other manipulations that will simply move Russian aggression to another stage,” Zelensky said in his evening address on Sept. 18.

How has it gone down so far?

The first reports aren’t too positive.

The White House is concerned that Zelensky’s plan lacks a clear strategy to win against Russia, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Sept. 25, citing U.S. and European officials.

Some officials familiar with the plan’s outlines said it focuses too heavily on requesting more weapons and lifting restrictions on long-range missile strikes.

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“I’m unimpressed, there’s not much new there,” one senior official told the WSJ.

White House officials are worried that Zelensky’s plan does not offer clear, actionable steps that Biden can support in his four remaining months in office, the WSJ reported.

U.S. and European officials told the WSJ that parts of the plan remain underdeveloped, and that requests related to weapons are the most specific and detailed.

What happens if Biden rejects the plan?

“That’s a horrible thought,” Zelensky said when asked this question by The New Yorker in an interview, published on Sept. 22.

“It would mean that Biden doesn’t want to end the war in any way that denies Russia a victory,” he said.

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“And we would end up with a very long war—an impossible, exhausting situation that would kill a tremendous number of people. Having said that, I can’t blame Biden for anything,” Zelensky added.


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Map: Earthquake Shakes Central California

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Map: Earthquake Shakes Central California

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Pacific time. The New York Times

A minor earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 3.5 struck in Central California on Monday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 7:17 a.m. Pacific time about 6 miles northwest of Pinnacles, Calif., data from the agency shows.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Monday, March 2 at 10:20 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Monday, March 2 at 11:18 a.m. Eastern.

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US says Kuwait accidentally shot down 3 American jets

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US says Kuwait accidentally shot down 3 American jets

The U.S. and Israel have been conducting strikes against targets in Iran since Saturday morning, with the aim of toppling Tehran’s clerical regime. Iran has fired back, with retaliatory assaults featuring missiles and drones targeting several Gulf countries and American bases in the Middle East.

“All six aircrew ejected safely, have been safely recovered, and are in stable condition. Kuwait has acknowledged this incident, and we are grateful for the efforts of the Kuwaiti defense forces and their support in this ongoing operation,” Central Command said.

“The cause of the incident is under investigation. Additional information will be released as it becomes available,” it added.

In a separate statement later Monday, Central Command said that American forces had been killed during combat since the strikes began.

“As of 7:30 am ET, March 2, four U.S. service members have been killed in action. The fourth service member, who was seriously wounded during Iran’s initial attacks, eventually succumbed to their injuries,” it said.

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Major combat operations continue and our response effort is ongoing. The identities of the fallen are being withheld until 24 hours after next of kin notification,” Central Command added.

This story has been updated.

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Satellite images provide view inside Iran at war

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Satellite images provide view inside Iran at war

Smoke rises over Konarak naval base in southern Iran on Sunday. The base was one of hundreds of targets of U.S. and Israeli forces throughout the country.

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Commercial satellite images are providing a unique look at the extent of damage being done to Iran’s military facilities across the country.

The U.S. and Israeli military campaign opened with a daytime attack that struck Iranian leadership in central Tehran. Smoke was still visible rising from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound following the attack that killed the supreme leader.

An image by the company Airbus taken on Saturday shows the aftermath of an Israeli strike on Iran's Leadership House in central Tehran. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening wave of attacks.

An image by the company Airbus taken on Saturday shows the aftermath of an Israeli strike on Iran’s Leadership House in central Tehran. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening wave of attacks.

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Israel and the U.S. have gone on to strike targets across the country. Reports on social media indicate that there have been numerous military bases and compounds attacked all over Iran, and Iran has responded with attacks throughout the Middle East.

U.S. forces have also been striking at Iran’s navy. In a post on his social media platform, President Trump said that he had been briefed that U.S. forces had sunk nine Iranian naval vessels. U.S. Central Command did not immediately confirm that number but it did say it had struck an Iranian warship in port.

An image captured on February 28 shows a ship burning at Iran's naval base at Konarak.

An image captured on Saturday shows a ship burning at Iran’s naval base at Konarak.

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Numerous satellite images show burning vessels at Konarak naval base in southern Iran. Images also show damage to a nearby airbase where hardened hangers were struck by precision munitions.

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Hardened aircraft shelters at Konarak Airbase were struck with precision munitions.

Hardened aircraft shelters at Konarak airbase were struck with precision munitions.

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And there was extensive damage at a drone base in the same area. Iran has launched numerous drones and missiles toward Israel and U.S. military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Many drones have been intercepted but videos on social media show that some have evaded air defenses and caused damage in nearby Gulf countries. In Dubai, debris from an Iranian drone damaged the iconic Burj Al Arab, according to a statement from Dubai’s government.

Buildings at an Iranian drone base at Konarak were destroyed in the strikes.

Buildings at an Iranian drone base at Konarak were destroyed in the strikes.

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Iran’s most powerful weapons are its long-range missiles. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards have hidden the missiles deep inside mountain tunnels. Images taken Sunday in the mountains of northern Iran indicate that some of those tunnels were hit in a wave of strikes.

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Following Khamenei’s death, Iran declared 40 days of mourning. Satellite images showed mourners gathering in Tehran’s Enghelab square on Sunday.

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told NPR on Sunday that Iran will continue to fight “foreign aggression, foreign domination.”

A White House official told NPR that Trump plans to talk to Iran’s interim leadership “eventually,” but that for now, U.S. operations continue in the region “unabated.”

A large crowd of mourners fill Enghelab Square in Tehran on Sunday, following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

A large crowd of mourners fill Enghelab Square in Tehran on Sunday, following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

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