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The Economic Mind of Tim Walz

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The Economic Mind of Tim Walz

Democratic vice presidential candidate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz speaks during a campaign rally with Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, at the Liacouras Center at Temple University on Aug. 6, 2024 in Philadelphia.

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In recent weeks, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz burst from relative obscurity to co-headlining the Democratic presidential ticket. Walz’s career rocket launch was fueled by his cutting political rhetoric, folksy midwestern charm, jovial dad vibes, and progressive principles and accomplishments.

Before Walz was governor and a vice presidential candidate, he wore many hats. He was a congressman, a high school teacher, a union member, a command sergeant major in the Army National Guard, a state-championship-winning high school football coach. One hat he did not wear: lawyer. That makes him, according to The Economist, “the first non-lawyer to be on the Democratic ticket since 1980.”

While in Congress, Walz represented a conservative district that had elected only one other Democratic representative in the previous century. The conservative makeup of that district might help explain why he took political positions that are rare for Democrats, including supporting gun rights (he had an “A” rating from the NRA) and the Keystone XL pipeline, which progressive lawmakers and environmentalists opposed because of its likely environmental impacts. Despite representing a conservative district, however, Walz was also an early supporter of same-sex marriage. He also has a long history of taking populist, progressive positions on a host of economic policies, from trade to corporate bailouts.

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While not as dramatic as the political transformation of his electoral counterpart JD Vance, Walz too had a political transformation over the last decade. As governor, Walz established a more progressive record than his time as a congressman, including on gun control and fighting climate change.

As governor, Walz prioritized economic issues — including greater government support for families and children — which have also been a top priority for Kamala Harris. It’s feasible that Walz’s selection could be a signal of the policies that Harris, if elected president, will try to implement during her administration.

A few weeks back, after Donald Trump picked Vance as his running mate, the Planet Money newsletter looked into Vance’s economic positions and record. Consider this newsletter the sequel. Today, we’re stepping inside the economic mind of Tim Walz.

Walzonomics

As governor, Walz prioritized increasing the economic security of kids. A couple years back in the Planet Money newsletter, we highlighted how America’s welfare system is pretty generous for the elderly but relatively stingy for kids. Comparing the United States to almost 40 other countries in the OECD, only Turkey spends less per child as a percentage of their GDP. It’s a significant reason why the US has a much higher rate of childhood poverty than other rich nations — and even a higher rate of childhood poverty than some not-so-rich countries.

As a senator, Kamala Harris co-sponsored legislation to increase the child tax credit. And, according to reporting from NPR’s Asma Khalid, Harris was “particularly passionate” on this issue when she became vice president.

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During the pandemic, the Biden-Harris administration, as part of the American Rescue Plan, expanded and enhanced the childhood tax credit, helping lift millions of kids out of poverty. One study by scholars at Columbia University found it reduced childhood poverty by about 30%. But, the enhanced childhood tax credit was made only temporary, and because of politics in Washington, Congress didn’t end up renewing it.

Governor Walz wasn’t happy with that. So he implemented a state version of the childhood tax credit, which, according to the Tax Policy Center, is “one of the largest in the country.” Starting in tax year 2023, every Minnesotan taxpayer with kids can claim “$1,750 per qualifying child, with no limit on the number of children claimed.” And because the credit is fully refundable, it means that even low-income Minnesotans who don’t pay much or anything in state taxes are eligible for it.

In addition to passing a generous tax credit for kids, Walz also created a program that gives Minnesotan K-12 students free school breakfasts and lunches.

Somewhat controversially, Walz made this meal program universal. It is not means-tested, so even rich kids can get free breakfasts and lunches. At a press conference after this program’s passage, Walz defended the universality of the program from Republican attacks that it was an unnecessary giveaway to parents who didn’t need it.

“Yeah, isn’t that rich? Our Republican colleagues were concerned there would be a tax cut for the wealthiest. You can’t make some of this up if you tried,” Walz said. Walz argued that, because the food program is universal, there is less bureaucracy in administering it. State bureaucrats and schools don’t have to verify the income of kids’ parents. “We know a lot of families — this is hard. They send you lots of paperwork… [The universality of the tax credit] was meant to make it as easy as possible, knowing it’s a benefit for all of them.”

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In a recent interview with the New York Times’ Ezra Klein, Walz further explained that making his school food program universal also helped eliminate divisions in school cafeterias. As a high school teacher for many years, Walz also served as a lunchroom monitor. In the past, Walz said, students who received free or subsidized lunch could be identified because they had different colored lunch tickets. He suggested that the universal nature of this program helped to eliminate class-based distinctions in schools and reduce stigma for poor kids who need assistance.

In addition, Walz told Klein, he got a lot of feedback from parents — and “especially mothers because of the unequal distribution of domestic labor” — that revealed another benefit of free school breakfast and lunches. “These were women who said, ‘Look, we didn’t qualify before. We do now. It’s an absolute tax cut for us. But it’s an absolute lifesaver for me that I don’t have to get up in the morning and either make breakfast or send one to school… So it’s a double benefit for us. I have less work. My kids eat.’ So it was actually middle-class folks who were most jazzed about this.”

Walz supported a host of other measures that support kids, including increasing funding for K-12 schools by 10 percent (a $2.2 billion increase) and signing a bill that expanded funding for kids who grew up in foster care to attend college.

Walz signed legislation that gave Minnesotan workers up to 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave as well as paid sick leave. As we’ve reported before in the Planet Money newsletter, the United States is the only rich country without a national paid leave program. The federal government only guarantees up to 12 weeks of unpaid family and medical leave, and it doesn’t even do that for all workers.

As governor, Walz worked to change that at the state level, expanding the ability of workers in his state to take paid leave. He signed legislation that gave Minnesotans up to 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave. Even more, he made the program more generous for low-income workers. The program has a progressive replacement rate, so lower income Minnesotans get a higher percentage of their income replaced when they’re on leave. The leave program is supposed to launch in 2026.

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In addition, Walz provided Minnesotans with paid sick leave. Now, for every 30 hours Minnesotans work, they can earn at least one hour of sick leave up to “a maximum of 48 hours each year unless the employer agrees to a higher amount.”

Walz helped make Minnesota’s tax system one of the most progressive of any state in the country. Through a series of tax cuts, rebates, and credits for low and middle-income Minnesotans and moderate tax hikes on the rich, Walz has helped transform Minnesota’s tax system into one of the few in the nation that is “moderately progressive,” according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. Most other states, according to this think tank, tax the rich at lower rates and therefore have tax systems that aren’t progressive at all.

Walz has done a lot on the tax reform front. Facing a multibillion-dollar budget surplus, the governor was able to enact “the largest tax cut in state history.” These tax cuts included the aforementioned child tax credit as well tax rebates of up to $1,300 for working class Minnesotans, which some dubbed “Walz checks.” Walz also cut taxes for recipients of Social Security in Minnesota.

To help pay for these cuts, Walz put a new tax on multinational corporations. He put a one percent surtax on investment income over $1 million a year. Walz also increased taxes on gas to help fund infrastructure.

Walz invested heavily in Minnesota’s infrastructure. Under Walz, the state has spent billions on improving roads, bridges, and other infrastructure projects.

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Walz has earned a reputation as a “YIMBY” — or, someone who has prioritized the development of new housing to help solve affordability issues. As governor, Walz took a number of actions to increase the supply and affordability of housing in Minnesota, including a billion-dollar housing investment bill that amounted to the largest single investment in housing in Minnesota history. Walz called it “a generational investment in housing.”

Walz is a former union member and a big supporter of organized labor. As a teacher, Walz was a member of the American Federation of Teachers union. And, like his counterpart JD Vance, Walz walked a picket line with auto workers. Walz also abolished noncompete agreements, which limited workers’ ability to switch jobs within an industry. He also banned companies from requiring workers to attend anti-union briefings, boosted funding for workplace safety inspections and worked to enhance worker protections, including at Amazon warehouses.

After Harris selected Walz, a range of unions praised him. “Tim Walz doesn’t just talk the talk, he walks the walk,” the United Auto Workers union wrote on X. “From delivering for working-class Americans to standing with the UAW on our picket line last year, we know which side he’s on.”

After intense, back-and-forth negotiations with Uber and Lyft, Governor Walz helped Minnesota become the first state to establish a minimum wage for Uber and Lyft drivers. In 2023, the Minnesota legislature passed a bill that would have set minimum pay rates for rideshare drivers and increased protections for them against being fired. Uber was not happy. And, after they threatened they would largely pull out of the state if the bill passed, Walz ended up vetoing the bill — his first veto.

“Rideshare drivers deserve fair wages and safe working conditions. I am committed to finding solutions that balance the interests of all parties, including drivers and riders,” Walz said about his veto. “This is not the right bill to achieve these goals. I have spent my career fighting for workers, and I will continue to work with drivers, riders, and rideshare companies to address the concerns that this bill sought to address.”

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Ultimately, however, Walz successfully surmounted the intense opposition from ride-share companies and implemented a version of this policy.

Governor Walz signed a so-called “Taylor Swift bill” that requires ticket sellers to fully disclose, up front, the real price — including all fees and surcharges — of tickets to concerts, games, and other live events. This bill was apparently sponsored by a legislator unhappy that they had trouble buying a ticket to a Taylor Swift concert in Minneapolis. The new law, among other measures, requires ticket sellers to disclose the full price of live events, including all fees, up front.

Governor Walz legalized marijuana. Both as a congressman and governor, Walz has been a long-time friend of weed smokers. In 2023, he signed a bill that legalized cannabis in Minnesota and created an “Office of Cannabis Management” to oversee and regulate the new sector. The law also automatically expunged “certain prior cannabis-related records” from the criminal histories of Minnesotans.

“We’ve known for too long that prohibiting the use of cannabis hasn’t worked. By legalizing adult-use cannabis, we’re expanding our economy, creating jobs, and regulating the industry to keep Minnesotans safe,” said Governor Walz in a statement after signing the bill. “Legalizing adult-use cannabis and expunging or resentencing cannabis convictions will strengthen communities. This is the right move for Minnesota.”

Walz has a mixed record on environmental causes. As a congressman, Walz supported the creation of the Keystone XL Pipeline, which was broadly opposed by progressives and environmental groups for its potential contributions to climate change and other environmental impacts (the pipeline was ultimately scuttled).

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But, as a governor, Walz signed a litany of pro-environmental bills, including a law that requires Minnesota to get 100% of its electricity from clean, renewable sources by 2040.

At the same time, however, Walz supported various causes opposed by environmentalists, including “about mining, oil pipelines, ag pollution and more,” according to The Star Tribune.

“What we have appreciated about Gov. Walz is he is very pragmatic,” Julie Lucas, executive director of MiningMinnesota, told Politico.

While serving in Congress, Walz opposed most free trade agreements he had the opportunity to vote for. Walz, for example, voted against free trade deals with Peru, Panama, and Colombia.

“Trade can be a powerful tool for good, but as we’ve seen in the past with agreements like NAFTA, sometimes these agreements work against the American worker,” then-Congressman Walz said in a 2015 statement.

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When opposing free trade agreements with Colombia and Panama, Walz expressed opposition to how these countries were governed. “Although improvements have been made in recent years, Colombia still has one of the worst human rights records in the western hemisphere, especially when it comes to the rights of workers,” then-Congressman Walz said in a press release. “In light of this record, I am opposed to any trade agreement with Colombia which does not make a dramatic and sustained improvement to human rights and the rule of law in Colombia. Additionally, I am concerned about the instability and corruption of Panama’s financial institutions and oppose that agreement without a tougher crackdown on those abuses.”

Walz, however, did vote for a free trade agreement with South Korea in 2011. “When done right, I firmly believe fair trade agreements have the potential to create jobs for American workers, greater demand for American products and growth for the US economy,” Walz said in a statement. “That is exactly the kind of policy we need to pursue in times like these. In southern Minnesota, the Korea Free Trade Agreement is an exciting prospect for many of our farmers and I believe this deal is a net win for Minnesota.”

As a congressman, Walz voted against bailouts for financial and auto companies. And he voted for the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. “Wall Street reform will help ensure that hard-working taxpayers are never again asked to bail out Wall Street for their reckless decisions,” then-Congressman Walz wrote in an op-ed after voting for Dodd-Frank. “I voted against President Bush’s original Wall Street bailout in 2008, and opposed President Obama’s attempts in 2009 to renew it because it was a raw deal for taxpayers. The next time a big bank’s mistakes threaten the economy, there won’t be a bailout, but an orderly liquidation process — and the CEOs will be the first to go.”

On his opposition to the bailout of American automakers, Walz explained in a statement, “I voted against the auto industry bailout for the same reason I voted against the Wall Street bailout: because it doesn’t do enough to protect the taxpayers who are footing the bill. Nothing in this bill will prevent the auto manufacturers and their suppliers from continuing to move jobs overseas. And we have no guarantee that spending $15 billion in taxpayers’ money will actually solve the Big Three’s problems. We must preserve and create jobs in America but this isn’t the way to do it.”

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As is clear from the above, Walz has established a lengthy track record. And not everyone loves it. After Harris selected Walz, conservatives attacked his economic record. Former Trump economic advisor Kevin Hassett, for example, characterized Walz as a “tax-and-spend liberal” and even an “avowed socialist,” pointing to a recent comment Walz had made. “Don’t ever shy away from our progressive values,” Walz said recently on a “White Dudes For Kamala” call. “One person’s socialism is another person’s neighborliness.”

Love him or hate him, the vice presidency is often just a ceremonial role that doesn’t have much power. However, Harris’s selection of Walz may say something about her commitment to progressive policy goals, like greater government support for kids and families, and perhaps a less cozy relationship with big corporations than some past Democratic administrations.

We will be closely monitoring the economic policy issues and proposals of this presidential election. Follow along with us at Planet Money, on our short daily podcast The Indicator or here at our newsletter.

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Rubio’s Absence From Iran Talks Highlights Stay-at-Home Role

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Rubio’s Absence From Iran Talks Highlights Stay-at-Home Role

When President Barack Obama negotiated a nuclear deal with Iran more than a decade ago, his point man was Secretary of State John Kerry. Over 20 months of talks, Mr. Kerry met with his Iranian counterpart on at least 18 different days, often several times per day.

High-level nuclear diplomacy was a natural role for the top U.S. diplomat. Secretaries of state traditionally take the lead on the country’s biggest diplomatic tasks, from arms control treaties to Israeli-Palestinian agreements.

But as President Trump prepares to send a delegation to the latest round of U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan this weekend, his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, will remain where he often does: at home.

Mr. Rubio did not attend the last U.S. meeting with Iran earlier this month. Nor did he join several meetings held over the past year in Geneva and Doha. Mr. Rubio has also been absent from U.S. delegations abroad working to settle the war in Ukraine and Israel’s war in Gaza. Despite a long period of crisis and war in the region, he has not visited the Middle East since a brief stop in Israel last October.

In recent months, Mr. Rubio — consumed with his second role, as Mr. Trump’s national security adviser — has not traveled much at all.

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During the Biden administration, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken made 11 foreign trips from January 2024 to late April 2024, stopping in roughly three dozen cities, according to the State Department. So far this year, Mr. Rubio has visited six foreign cities, including a stop in Milan for the 2026 Winter Olympics.

Mr. Trump has outsourced much of his diplomacy to others, including his friend Steve Witkoff, a wealthy associate from the world of Manhattan real estate, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner have spearheaded diplomacy with Israel, Ukraine and Russia, as well as Iran, whose delegation they will meet for the second time this month in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital.

Mr. Rubio’s distance from the trenches of diplomacy reflects his dual role on Mr. Trump’s national security team. For the past year, he has served as the White House national security adviser even while leading the State Department — the first person to do so since Henry A. Kissinger in the mid-1970s.

The secretary of state runs the State Department, overseeing U.S. diplomats and embassies worldwide, as well as Washington-based policymakers. Working from the White House, the national security adviser coordinates departments and agencies, including the State Department, to develop policy advice for the president.

The twin roles reflect Mr. Rubio’s influence with Mr. Trump, and offer him a way to maintain it. For Mr. Rubio, less time abroad means more time at the side of an impulsive president prone to making critical national security decisions at any moment.

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As Mr. Witkoff, Mr. Kushner and Vice President JD Vance met with Iranian officials in Pakistan earlier this month, Mr. Rubio was at Mr. Trump’s side at an Ultimate Fighting Championship event, noted Emma Ashford, an analyst of U.S. diplomacy at the nonpartisan Stimson Center in Washington. “Rubio clearly prefers to stay close to Trump,” Ms. Ashford said.

Mr. Rubio accepted the national security adviser job on an acting basis last May after Mr. Trump reassigned the job’s previous occupant, Michael Waltz. But officials say that Mr. Rubio is expected to keep it indefinitely.

That arrangement is not inherently bad, Ms. Ashford added. And she noted that previous presidents had entrusted major diplomatic tasks to people other than the secretary of state. President Joseph R. Biden Jr. delegated his C.I.A. director, William J. Burns, to handle diplomacy with Russia and cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, for instance.

But she echoed the complaints by many current and former diplomats that Mr. Rubio seems less like someone performing both jobs than a national security adviser who sometimes shows up at the State Department. “I do think it’s to the detriment of the whole department of State and to America’s ability to conduct diplomacy in general that we effectively have the secretary of state position sitting vacant,” she said.

Tommy Pigott, a State Department spokesman, contested such claims. “Anyone trying to paint Secretary Rubio’s close coordination with the White House and other agencies as a negative could not be more wrong,” he said. “We now have an N.S.C. and State Department that are totally in sync, a goal that has eluded past administrations for decades.”

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Mr. Rubio divides his time between the State Department and the White House, often spending time at both in the same day. In an interview with Politico last June, Mr. Rubio said he visited the State Department “almost every day.”

While there, he often meets with visiting dignitaries before returning to the White House. Last week, Mr. Rubio presided over a meeting at the State Department between Lebanese and Israeli officials that set the stage for a cease-fire in Lebanon.

His twin jobs “really do overlap in many cases,” he said. “In many cases you end up being in the same meetings or in the same places; there’s just one less person in there, if you think about it,” Mr. Rubio added. “A lot of people would come to Washington, for example, for meetings, and they’d want to meet with the national security adviser and then meet with me as secretary of state. Now they can do both in one meeting.”

Asked about his travel schedule during a news conference last December, Mr. Rubio said he had less reason to travel abroad because “we have a lot of leaders constantly coming here” to visit Mr. Trump at the White House. Mr. Rubio also joins Mr. Trump’s foreign trips in his capacity as national security adviser.

Many national security veterans call the arrangement unwise, saying that both jobs are extremely demanding and incompatible with one another.

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It was not easy even for Mr. Kissinger, who had firmly established himself over more than four years as national security adviser before convincing President Richard M. Nixon to let him take on an additional role as secretary of state in 1973. (In a reversal of Mr. Rubio’s approach, Mr. Kissinger was in constant motion, including a round of Middle East shuttle diplomacy that kept him on the road for 33 straight days.)

“In general, it’s a mistake to combine those roles,” said Matthew Waxman, who held senior roles at the National Security Council, State Department and the Pentagon during the George W. Bush administration.

“That said, it’s not necessarily a bad thing that a dual-hatted Rubio is so offscreen right now,” Mr. Waxman added. “Especially while so much attention is focused on high-wire diplomacy with Iran, someone needs to manage foreign policy around the rest of the world.”

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Appeals court rules that Trump’s asylum ban at the border is illegal

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Appeals court rules that Trump’s asylum ban at the border is illegal

President Trump speaks during an event on health care affordability in the Oval Office at the White House on Thursday in Washington.

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WASHINGTON — An appeals court on Friday blocked President Trump’s executive order suspending asylum access at the southern border of the U.S., a key pillar of the Republican president’s plan to crack down on migration.

A three-judge panel from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit found that immigration laws give people the right to apply for asylum at the border, and the president can’t circumvent that.

The court opinion stems from action taken by Trump on Inauguration Day 2025, when he declared that the situation at the southern border constituted an invasion of America and that he was “suspending the physical entry” of migrants and their ability to seek asylum until he decides it is over.

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The panel concluded that the Immigration and Nationality Act doesn’t authorize the president to remove the plaintiffs under “procedures of his own making,” allow him to suspend plaintiffs’ right to apply for asylum or curtail procedures for adjudicating their anti-torture claims.

“The power by proclamation to temporarily suspend the entry of specified foreign individuals into the United States does not contain implicit authority to override the INA’s mandatory process to summarily remove foreign individuals,” wrote Judge J. Michelle Childs, who was nominated to the bench by Democratic President Joe Biden.

“We conclude that the INA’s text, structure, and history make clear that in supplying power to suspend entry by Presidential proclamation, Congress did not intend to grant the Executive the expansive removal authority it asserts,” the opinion said.

White House says asylum ban was within Trump’s powers

The administration can ask the full appeals court to reconsider the ruling or go to the Supreme Court.

The order doesn’t formally take effect until after the court considers any request to reconsider.

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White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, speaking on Fox News, said she had not seen the ruling but called it “unsurprising,” blaming politically-motivated judges.

“They are not acting as true litigators of the law. They are looking at these cases from a political lens,” she said.

Leavitt said Trump was taking actions that are “completely within his powers as commander in chief.”

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said the Department of Justice would seek further review of the decision. “We are sure we will be vindicated,” she wrote in an emailed statement.

The Department of Homeland Security said it strongly disagreed with the ruling.

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“President Trump’s top priority remains the screening and vetting of all aliens seeking to come, live, or work in the United States,” DHS said in a statement.

Advocates welcome the ruling

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, senior fellow at the American Immigration Council, said that previous legal action had already paused the asylum ban, and the ruling won’t change much on the ground.

The ruling, however, represents another legal defeat for a centerpiece policy of the president.

“This confirms that President Trump cannot on his own bar people from seeking asylum, that it is Congress that has mandated that asylum seekers have a right to apply for asylum and the President cannot simply invoke his authority to sustain,” said Reichlin-Melnick.

Advocates say the right to request asylum is enshrined in the country’s immigration law and say denying migrants that right puts people fleeing war or persecution in grave danger.

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Lee Gelernt, attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union, who argued the case, said in a statement that the appellate ruling is “essential for those fleeing danger who have been denied even a hearing to present asylum claims under the Trump administration’s unlawful and inhumane executive order.”

Las Americas Immigrant Advocacy Center, one of the plaintiffs in the lawsuit, welcomed the court decision as a victory for their clients.

“Today’s DC Circuit ruling affirms that capricious actions by the President cannot supplant the rule of law in the United States,” said Nicolas Palazzo, director of advocacy and legal Services at Las Americas.

Judge Justin Walker, a Trump nominee, wrote a partial dissent. He said the law gives immigrants protections against removal to countries where they would be persecuted, but the administration can issue broad denials of asylum applications.

Walker, however, agreed with the majority that the president cannot deport migrants to countries where they will be persecuted or strip them of mandatory procedures that protect against their removal.

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Judge Cornelia Pillard, who was nominated by Democratic President Obama, also heard the case.

In the executive order, Trump argued that the Immigration and Nationality Act gives presidents the authority to suspend entry of any group that they find “detrimental to the interests of the United States.”

The executive order also suspended the ability of migrants to ask for asylum.

Trump’s order was another blow to asylum access in the U.S., which was severely curtailed under the Biden administration, although under Biden some pathways for protections for a limited number of asylum seekers at the southern border continued.

Migrant advocate in Mexico expresses cautious hope

For Josue Martinez, a psychologist who works at a small migrant shelter in southern Mexico, the ruling marked a potential “light at the end of the tunnel” for many migrants who once hoped to seek asylum in the U.S. but ended up stuck in vulnerable conditions in Mexico.

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“I hope there’s something more concrete, because we’ve heard this kind of news before: A district judge files an appeal, there’s a temporary hold, but it’s only temporary and then it’s over,” he said.

Meanwhile, migrants from Haiti, Cuba, Venezuela and other countries have struggled to make ends meet as they try to seek refuge in Mexico’s asylum system that’s all but collapsed under the weight of new strains and slashed international funds.

This week hundreds of migrants, mostly stranded migrants from Haiti, left the southern Mexican city of Tapachula on foot to seek better living conditions elsewhere in Mexico.

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A New Worry for Republicans: Latino Catholics Offended by Trump

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A New Worry for Republicans: Latino Catholics Offended by Trump

When Stuart Sepulvida arrives at St. Francis de Sales Roman Catholic Parish in Tucson, Ariz., for Mass, which he attends most mornings, he passes a display honoring local soldiers and encouraging parishioners to pray for their safety. Hundreds of small cards record their names: Robles, Arenas, Grajeda. A portrait of Pope Leo XIV hangs across the lobby.

Mr. Sepulvida, 81, is a Vietnam veteran whose patriotism and Catholicism are deeply intertwined. He voted for President Trump three times but has never felt more betrayed by an American president than when Mr. Trump denounced Pope Leo as “weak on crime” and “terrible for foreign policy.”

“It was very disturbing to me to hear both of them clashing like they did,” Mr. Sepulvida said, standing outside the church one morning this week. Now, he is reconsidering whether he will vote Republican this year.

The Republican Party is struggling to hold onto the support from Hispanic voters who helped propel Mr. Trump back into the White House in 2024. Yet as many party leaders have acknowledged the urgent need to stop the backsliding among Latinos, the president has enraged many of even his strongest supporters by clashing with the pope.

On Easter Sunday, Pope Leo, the first U.S.-born pontiff, spoke of the need to “abandon every desire for conflict, domination and power, and implore the Lord to grant his peace to a world ravaged by wars.” Within days, Mr. Trump, who has led the United States into a war with Iran, said the pope was “catering to the radical left” and posted an AI-generated image portraying himself as a Jesus figure. Mr. Trump later deleted the image, saying he thought it depicted him as a doctor.

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“It just isn’t what a president should do,” Mr. Sepulvida said. “The pope speaks for his people. He is beyond politics.”

Mr. Trump won 55 percent of Catholic voters in the 2024 election, compared to 43 percent who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris, according to Pew Research Center. The most sizable gains came from Hispanic Catholics. While Joseph R. Biden Jr. won their votes by a 35-point margin in 2020, the Democratic advantage shrunk to 17 points in 2024. Now, just 18 percent of Hispanic Catholics said they support most or all of President Trump’s agenda, according to a poll from Pew released earlier this year.

If the president’s quarrel with the pope sours more Latinos on the Republican Party, it could affect midterm races across the country, including in South Florida and South Texas, where Republicans have notched important victories in predominantly Hispanic districts in recent years.

In Arizona’s Sixth Congressional District, which stretches from north of Tucson to the Mexican border, voters were still grappling with the fallout this week.

The district is roughly evenly divided among Republicans, Democrats and independent voters. Nearly a third of the district is Hispanic, and there is a significant population of members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, as well as a large Catholic community with deep history in the region. It also has one of largest numbers of military veterans of all congressional districts in the country.

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“The president is looking for a lot of attention from everything,” said Maria Ramos, 60, who regularly attends weekday Mass at St. Francis. A registered independent, she usually votes for Democrats but often declines to cast a ballot if she views a candidate as too liberal. “He believes he can put God in his place. He’s meddling in countries that he’s not in control of — he wants to control the world.”

“It is not just a very serious lack of respect — it is a mortal sin,” she said, shaking her head. One word comes to her mind again and again, she said: disgust.

Like so many others in southern Arizona, Ms. Ramos has several relatives who serve in the military — a path they saw to both serve the country and as an entry into the stable middle class. Many of them, she said, voted for Mr. Trump for president.

The Tucson district is now widely seen as one of the most competitive in the country. Republican Juan Ciscomani narrowly won the district in 2022, in part by emphasizing his biography as a Mexican immigrant and a devoted father of six children. He is also an evangelical Christian, a group that has driven much of the growth among Hispanic Republican voters in recent years.

Mr. Ciscomani declined a request for an interview, but when a local radio host asked Mr. Ciscomani what he thought of Mr. Trump’s comments “as a man of faith,” the congressman declined to criticize the president but said, “You can trust that you won’t see any meme like that coming out of my account.”

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JoAnna Mendoza, the Democrat challenging Mr. Ciscomani this fall, has made her 20-year career in the U.S. Navy and Marines a key aspect of her story on the campaign trail. While she rarely speaks about her religious background and no longer considers herself a practicing Catholic, she said she briefly considered becoming a nun as a teenager. She criticized Mr. Ciscomani for not condemning the president’s remarks.

“You can’t make faith a central part of your campaign and then allow this to stand,” she said in an interview.

Across Tucson, Latino Catholics, regardless of their past voting preferences, were similarly quick to condemn the president’s remarks.

When Cecilia Taisipic, 71, heard about it, she said, she winced with shame about her vote for him in 2024.

“I thought he would make the country better, but apparently it’s the opposite,” she said as she left Mass at St. Francis earlier this week. She is so fed up with politics, she said, that she is unlikely to vote at all this year. “When it comes to my faith, I don’t like anybody to challenge it. Now I don’t want to hear anything on the news. I just want to pray.”

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Matilde Robinson Bours, 63, teaches a weekly Spanish Bible study class at St. Thomas the Apostle Parish, and like nearly all of the women in her class, she immigrated from Mexico decades ago. She has voted for Republicans in nearly every election since she became a citizen. Though she has never liked President Trump, she said, his comments about the pope enraged her more than anything else he has said or done in the past.

“This surpassed everything, every social and political norm — this is personal to all Catholics,” she said. “The arrogance and ego is disgusting. To think that he is God? The pope has every right and responsibility to talk about peace.”

Still, Ms. Robinson Bours said, nothing will stop her from supporting Republicans again this year. She has been delighted that her adult children have stopped supporting Democrats in recent elections.

“Almost everyone I know thinks the way I do,” she said.

Patricia Martinez, 86, who has attended the same Bible study as Ms. Robinson Bours for years, shook her head in disagreement. She said she cannot imagine voting for a Republican who supports Mr. Trump.

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“This is different — this shows he is out of his mind,” said Ms. Martinez. “We have to have basic respect and teach that to people in this country.”

Patrick Robles, a 24-year-old native of Tucson, spent years alienated from the Roman Catholic Church, but returned to his faith more recently. “The craziness of the world sort of caused me to seek some sort of answers,” he said. Now, he attends Mass at the St. Augustine Cathedral in downtown Tucson, a few blocks from the office where he works as an aide to Representative Adelita Grijalva, a Democrat.

Mr. Robles said he saw Mr. Trump’s battle with the pope as both a personal affront and a political opportunity.

“The president is basically trying to draw a line between Catholics and what we perceive to be patriotism,” he said. “I believe we can be both.”

Last week, he texted one of his uncles who has supported Mr. Trump in every election asking him what he thought.

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“I’m afraid we need divine intervention,” the uncle replied.

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