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Kamala Harris builds her campaign and Labour reveals all

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Kamala Harris builds her campaign and Labour reveals all

This article is an onsite version of our The Week Ahead newsletter. Subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every Sunday. Explore all of our newsletters here

Hello and welcome to the working week.

First, thank you David Hindley for holding the fort last Sunday in what turned out to be an eventful start to that week when Joe Biden quit the race for the White House. US vice-president Kamala Harris will be in the news over the next seven days as she further positions herself as the Democratic nominee for the presidential election. Meanwhile, the race for medals at the Paris Olympics will provide a sporting backdrop.

The long goodbye from Biden continues this week with a visit by the US president to the LBJ Library in Texas to commemorate the passing of the Civil Rights Act. Attention will focus on updates to Harris’s campaign to replace him after November’s election, in particular with the naming of her running mate, though this may not come now until August 7.

US national editor Edward Luce in the Swamp Notes newsletter (for Premium subscribers) argues that the wise choice would be Pete Buttigieg, Biden’s transportation secretary. However, as my colleague John Burn-Murdoch notes, Harris would lose if the election was held today. Her challenge is to build on her initial momentum and pass Donald Trump in the only poll that counts — the vote on November 5.

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The UK’s new Labour government is promising to start the week with a shock — if such a well-trailed event can be so described — laying bare the parlous state of the public finances. The revelation by chancellor Rachel Reeves of a £20bn shortfall is widely viewed as a forerunner to tax increases in her first fiscal statement in the autumn.

Monday also brings the biggest overhaul of rules for London-listed companies in three decades as the government attempts to revive the country’s capital markets. Could it herald a new dawn for the UK as a global hub for investors, supporting fundraising for higher-growth and founder-led companies? The FT editorial board hopes it can.

The headline economic data news this week will be the monetary policy choices of three of the G7 nations. The Bank of Japan and US Federal Open Market Committee go first with their rate-setting announcements on Wednesday, followed a day later by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

The Federal Reserve is weighing when to cut rates after raising them to a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5 per cent in response to the inflation shock from the pandemic. Its decision-making process has been complicated by last week’s higher than expected GDP growth figure, but the central bankers in Washington are still expected to stick to keep rates steady this week. Observers will be looking for comments that either confirm or cool the consensus opinion that rates will be cut at the Fed’’s September meeting.

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Britain may well move first. Economists are expecting a 25 basis point cut to the UK base rate after hints given by the MPC at its last meeting, though the odds have narrowed recently with the unexpected recovery in GDP growth. Allan Monks at JP Morgan Securities said: “If rates are lowered in August, it looks likely to happen on a close 5-4 vote.”

Economists are also predicting modest changes in the BoE’s economic outlook. GDP growth will probably see hefty revisions, particularly for this year. GDP growth in 2025 is also likely to be revised higher due to both a better starting point and lower market rate expectations.

A flood of earnings will wash on to the FT’s companies pages this week, which can be grouped into Big Tech, banking, automotive, engineering, consumer goods (notably drinks) and retail. Will Amazon, Meta and Microsoft be able to stem the rout in tech stocks? Are HSBC and Barclays going to build on the positive messaging from British banks last week? More details below.

One more thing . . . 

We are entering August, which means one thing: the start of the world renowned Edinburgh Festival Fringe. But for how much longer? Francesca Hegyi, chief executive of the Edinburgh International Festival, the main event to which the Fringe attaches itself, has told the Financial Times that the business model is bust. To make matters worse, the city’s binmen are adding to the stink (pun intended) by threatening to go on strike during the month-long event. Having experienced the joy of the Fringe once, I can attest that its demise would be a great cultural tragedy for the nation.

What are your priorities this week? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you have received this message in your inbox, hit reply. And have a good week.

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Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • Hipgnosis acquisition by Blackstone expected to become effective after the deal was approved by shareholders last month

  • UK: an overhaul of London listing rules come into force today (see details above)

  • Results: Alliance Pharma AGM and HY trading update, Cranswick Q1 trading statement, Heineken HY, Komatsu Q1, Loews Q2, McDonald’s Q2, ON Semiconductor Q2, Pearson HY and strategic update, Philips HY, SBA Communications Q2

Tuesday

  • Czech Republic, EU, France, Germany, Hungary, Mexico: preliminary Q2 GDP figures

  • Germany: preliminary July consumer price index (CPI) and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

  • Japan: unemployment rate

  • UK: British Retail Consortium’s July Shop Price Index.

  • Results: AG Barr HY trading update, Airbus HY, BP Q2, Caesars Entertainment Q2, Corning Q2, Croda HY, Diageo FY, Electronic Arts Q1, Ferrovial HY, Foxtons HY, Fresnillo HY, Games Workshop FY, Gartner Q2, Glencore HY production report, Greggs HY, Inchcape HY, Live Nation Entertainment Q2, L’Oréal HY, Merck & Co Q2, Mondelez International Q2, Microsoft Q4, Nomura Q1, Paragon Banking Q3 trading update, PayPal Q2, Pfizer Q2, Pinterest Q2, Procter & Gamble Q4, Sage Q3 trading update, Smurfit Kappa HY, Standard Chartered Q2, Stanley Black & Decker Q2, Starbucks Q3, St James’s Place HY, Weir Group HY, Western Union Q2

Wednesday

  • Brazil: Banco Central do Brasil Monetary Policy Committee rate-setting decision

  • EU: eurozone preliminary July HICP inflation rate data

  • France: preliminary July CPI and HICP inflation rate data

  • Germany: July retail sales and labour market figures

  • Japan: Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision

  • US: Federal Open Market Committee announces its rate decision.

  • Results: Adidas HY, Arm Holdings Q1, Asahi Kasei Q1, Boeing Q2, Danone HY, eBay Q2, GSK Q2, Kerry Group HY, Kraft Heinz Q2, Hess Q2, Hitachi Q1, HSBC HY, Ingersoll Rand Q2, Lufthansa HY, Marriott International Q2, Mastercard Q2, Match Group Q2, Meta Q2, MetLife Q2, Metro Bank HY, MGM Resorts Q2, OMV Q2, Panasonic Q1, Qualcomm Q3, Rathbones HY, Reach HY, Restore HY, Ricardo trading update, Rio Tinto HY (early AM Australia), Samsung Electronics Q2, Sumitomo Q1, Tata Steel Q1, Taylor Wimpey HY, Telefónica HY, Western Digital Q4

Thursday

  • Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill answers questions about the UK economy and the bank’s policies in an online Q&A

  • China, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HSBC/Caixin July manufacturing purchasing managers’ index data

  • UK: Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee announces its interest rate decision. Also, Nationwide’s July House Price Index

  • Results: Albemarle Q2, Allstate Q2, Amazon.com Q2, American International Group (AIG) Q2, American Water Works Q2, Anheuser-Busch InBev Q2, Apple Q3, ArcelorMittal HY, BAE Systems HY, Barclays HY, Deutsche Post Q2, Haleon HY, Hershey Q2, Intel Q2, London Stock Exchange HY, Mitsui & Co Q1, Moderna Q2, Next Q2 trading statement, Pets at Home Q1 trading update, Prudential Financial Q2, Robert Walters HY, Rolls-Royce HY, Schroders HY, Serco HY, Shell Q2, HY, Snap Q2, Tata Motors Q1, Thomson Reuters Q2, Toyota Q1, Veolia Environnement HY, Volkswagen HY, Wizz Air Q1

Friday

  • France: June industrial production figures

  • South Korea: July CPI inflation rate data

  • UK: BDO High Street Sales Tracker

  • US: July employment and non-farm payroll figures

  • Results: AXA HY, Capita HY, Chevron Q2, ExxonMobil Q2, IAG HY, KDDI Q1, Linde Q2, Nintendo Q1, Royal London HY, Sumitomo Mitsui Q1, Virgin Money UK Q3 trading update

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

  • Japan: Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hosts a foreign ministers’ meeting of the Quad, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, in Tokyo

  • US: President Joe Biden commemorates the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act during a visit to the LBJ Presidential Library in Texas

Tuesday

  • Philippines: the government’s foreign and defence ministers hold a 2+2 dialogue with their US counterparts for the first time in Manila

  • Vietnam: EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell visits Hanoi, where he will meet Vietnamese authorities to discuss foreign affairs, security and climate policy

  • UK: Qatar Goodwood Festival, aka Glorious Goodwood, five-day flat horseracing event begins in Chichester

Thursday

  • China: China Army Day, marking the founding of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army in 1927

  • Poland: 80th anniversary of the start of the Warsaw Uprising, when the city’s residents tried to oust the German army before it was occupied by the advancing Soviet forces. Streets in Poland will come to a standstill to commemorate the event

  • UN Security Council monthly presidency rotates from Russia to Sierra Leone

  • US: tariff increases on an array of Chinese imports, including electric vehicles and their batteries, computer chips and medical products, come into effect

Friday

  • UK: 77th Edinburgh Festival Fringe, the internationally acclaimed arts festival featuring hundreds of theatre, cabaret, comedy and music shows, starts in the Scottish capital

Saturday

  • UK: National Eisteddfod of Wales, a festival of arts, culture, competitive poetry-writing and music performed entirely in the Welsh language, opens in Rhondda Cynon Taff

Sunday

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Video: California Governor Declares State of Emergency for L.A. Warehouse Fire

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Video: California Governor Declares State of Emergency for L.A. Warehouse Fire

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California Governor Declares State of Emergency for L.A. Warehouse Fire

A fire that broke out on Wednesday at a cold storage facility in Los Angeles continued to burn on Sunday. Gov. Gavin Newsom declared an emergency.

We do realize that at times there are large amounts of smoke coming off this building, and that is to be expected. Now, the good news is, all of our air monitoring has shown that there are no additional toxic chemicals or hazards within that smoke other than normal structure fire smoke. That said, no smoke is good smoke. There are smoke advisories and particulate matter advisories out there around the community, spanning for several miles around this incident. We are going to continue to aggressively fight this fire and minimize the impact to the community as much as possible.

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A fire that broke out on Wednesday at a cold storage facility in Los Angeles continued to burn on Sunday. Gov. Gavin Newsom declared an emergency.

By Cynthia Silva

June 21, 2026

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US strike on an alleged drug boat kills 2, leaves 6 survivors, in the eastern Pacific Ocean

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US strike on an alleged drug boat kills 2, leaves 6 survivors, in the eastern Pacific Ocean

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. military has conduced another strike against a boat accused of smuggling drugs in the eastern Pacific Ocean on Thursday, immediately killing two people and leaving six survivors amid an ongoing campaign against alleged traffickers in Latin America.

The latest attack — which now number at more than 60 — brings the number of people who have been killed in boat strikes by the U.S. military to more than 210 people since the Trump administration began targeting those it calls “narcoterrorists” in early September.

It is unclear if the survivors of this strike were rescued. In this case, and the strike on June 16 that left two survivors, U.S. Central Command said that they notified the U.S. Coast Guard. The US Coast Guard said they suspended their search for survivors for the June 16 strike a day later with “no signs of survivors or debris” but had no comment on the current strike.

As with most of the military’s statements on strikes in the eastern Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea, U.S. Southern Command said it targeted the alleged drug traffickers along known smuggling routes. The military did not provide evidence that the vessel was ferrying drugs.

A black and white video posted on X showed a boat speeding through the water before being struck by a visible projectile and then bursting into flames.

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President Donald Trump has said the U.S. is in “armed conflict” with cartels in Latin America and has justified the attacks as a necessary escalation to stem the flow of drugs into the United States and fatal overdoses claiming American lives. But his administration has offered little evidence to support its claims of killing “narcoterrorists.”

Critics of the strikes have questioned the overall legality as well as their effectiveness. Part of the argument has been that the fentanyl behind many fatal U.S. drug overdoses is typically trafficked over land from Mexico, where it is produced with chemicals imported from China and India.

On Thursday, U.S. lawmakers demanded that the Pentagon release “unedited video” of the very first strike that the military conducted after reports emerged that the U.S. chose to conduct a follow-up strike on survivors of its initial attack.

Two men on the boat initially survived the attack that killed nine others, and they were clinging to the wreckage when the vessel was struck again, killing them. The White House confirmed the follow-up strike, insisting it was done “in self-defense” to ensure the boat was destroyed and in accordance with the laws of armed conflict.

But some legal scholars said a second strike killing survivors would have been illegal under any circumstance, armed conflict or not.

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The Pentagon’s watchdog said in May that it planned to look into whether the U.S. military followed an established targeting framework when carrying out the strikes. However, the evaluation is focused specifically on what’s known as the six-phase Joint Targeting Cycle and not on the legality of the strikes, the inspector general’s office said.

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The Deadly Rise of Giant Trucks and S.U.V.s

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The Deadly Rise of Giant Trucks and S.U.V.s

26-inch hood

2002 Toyota Corolla

36 inches

2014 Ford Escape

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47 inches

2022 Chevrolet Silverado

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In the early 2000s, more than half of the passenger vehicles on American roads were traditional cars like sedans. Their hoods were low to the ground.

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By the 2010s, larger vehicles like compact S.U.V.s had eclipsed cars.

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Today, S.U.V.s and pickup trucks dominate the roads. Many are bigger than ever.

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And far deadlier, a New York Times investigation found.

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They are killing thousands of pedestrians who otherwise might have survived.

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Illustrations by Todd M. Detwiler

For decades, American roads were steadily getting safer for pedestrians. But around 2009, the trend reversed. Since then, the number of pedestrians killed each year has risen by about 75 percent.

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Source: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety The New York Times

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The surge in pedestrian deaths has baffled researchers. Most other wealthy countries haven’t seen similar increases, suggesting that possible culprits like smartphones don’t tell the whole story.

Other likely causes of deadly crashes, such as drunken and distracted driving, have attracted immense attention from the public and policymakers. But the trend toward ever-larger vehicles has received much less scrutiny, even after federal researchers in 2022 cautioned regulators that it was endangering pedestrians.

After analyzing federal and industry records, including never-before-examined data on vehicle dimensions, we found that the rise of large pickups and S.U.V.s is an important factor.

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Our estimate is that about 200 to 400 pedestrians a year would not have died if vehicles had remained approximately the same size over the past quarter-century. That represents about 10 percent of the recent increase in pedestrian deaths.

There are two reasons bigger vehicles are deadlier: They have taller hoods. And they tend to have larger blind zones.

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“We see a lot of devastating collisions even at lower speeds because the pedestrian gets punted forward,” said Shawn Harrington, whose company, Forensic Rock, conducted crash tests for us. “Before the driver knows what’s happened, the pedestrian’s head is under the wheel.”

More vehicles than ever have hoods that exceed the average American’s center of gravity, which is generally around the belly button.

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The hood of an average passenger vehicle today is about three feet high. Anyone shorter than 5-foot-6 — about half of American adults — would frequently be rammed to the pavement. So would most children.

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, who is , is likely to be knocked down by about XX percent of vehicles today.
In 2002, that number would have been XX percent.

Not only are the high hoods on larger vehicles more lethal, but their bulkier frames can also block drivers’ views of pedestrians.

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To analyze how these blind zones have changed, we used a three-dimensional scanner to compare sightlines in four of the most common pickups today — the Chevrolet Silverado, Ford F-150, GMC Sierra and Toyota Tacoma — with their counterparts from the 1990s or early 2000s.

The Silverado’s blind zones have nearly doubled.

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The Sierra’s and the Tacoma’s grew by about 60 percent.

The smallest increase was the F-150’s. Its blind zones grew by about 25 percent.

Our overall findings match what we found in court records and heard from dozens of experts who reconstruct crashes for police and lawyers.

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One morning last year, Charlene McAlister, 76, set out for work at a child care center in Colorado Springs. “See you tonight,” she called to her daughter as she left their home.

As Ms. McAlister was crossing the street, a Ram 1500 TRX — a pickup marketed for its off-road capabilities and fierce-looking design — was turning left.

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Ms. McAlister was not quite five feet tall. The pickup’s hood was at least four feet high. It hit her, throwing her to the pavement.

The driver later said he hadn’t seen Ms. McAlister, according to court records. They show that the truck’s large hood and side mirrors may have impeded his view.

When Ms. McAlister’s daughter, Serena, arrived at the scene, she saw her mother’s hedgehog-themed backpack and red purse in the road, spattered with blood. Emergency workers had draped a white sheet over her body.

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Serena McAlister at the intersection where her 76-year-old mother was struck by a pickup truck. Rachel Woolf for The New York Times

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Charlene McAlister was hit as the truck turned left. Rachel Woolf for The New York Times

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The size of vehicles is far from the only reason that more pedestrians are dying, according to independent experts and industry officials.

“While vehicle safety is critical, blaming larger vehicles for pedestrian deaths overlooks systemic issues” including the design of roads, said Mike Levine, a spokesman for Ford.

Automakers say that new technology designed to detect and avoid pedestrians — including systems that automatically apply the brakes — would dramatically improve safety. For example, Bill Grotz, a spokesman for General Motors, pointed to a recent study that found that G.M. vehicles with so-called front pedestrian braking reduced the frequency of injuries by 35 percent.

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The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is pinning its hopes on automated collision-avoidance systems. Such technologies “are actively reducing the occurrence of these crashes and fundamentally shifting the risk landscape,” said Sean Rushton, an agency spokesman. “We view these technologies as the cornerstone of future mitigation strategies.”

But many experts say that technology is not a perfect substitute for drivers being able to view their surroundings directly. And tests by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, which studies ways to make driving less dangerous, have shown that many large vehicles’ automatic braking systems do not consistently prevent collisions.

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The owner’s manuals for some of the most popular vehicles caution that safety technology can fail in a variety of common situations: in bad weather; at high speeds; if there are shadows on the road or its surface is uneven; or if a pedestrian is running, pushing a stroller, not standing upright or the size of a small child.

‘King of the Road’

Today’s S.U.V.s and pickups promise more: more seats, more space, more safety, more power, more domination, more prestige.

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And, for automakers, more money.

They are the source of virtually all of the U.S. auto industry’s profits, said Mark Wakefield, an industry expert at the consulting firm AlixPartners. For nearly a decade, Ford and G.M. have said in their annual reports that their earnings depend on larger S.U.V.s and pickups.

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The cost of making bigger vehicles is usually not much higher than it is for cars, because they are often built in automakers’ most efficient factories and the extra raw materials are relatively cheap.

Yet customers are willing to pay much more for them. The average sticker price for a full-size pickup is $70,000, double that of a sedan, according to Cox Automotive. (Some people pay more to soup up their trucks with “lift kits” that raise their suspensions.)

It is no coincidence that automakers have dramatically scaled back their production of sedans and other passenger cars in the United States. Ford, for example, went from selling more than a million in 2017 to fewer than 100,000 five years later.

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What used to be utilitarian vehicles for construction workers are now marketed to the American masses, with messages tailored to specific audiences.

One common pitch centers on machismo. Automakers trumpet how some of their trucks have an “aggressive appearance” or a “piercing glare.”

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Chevrolet Silverados from 1998 and 2021.

Other approaches emphasize the perceived safety of being the biggest vehicle around. “You’re the king of the road,” said Frank Hanley, a director at the automotive research firm JD Power.

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At Ford, Nicole Gayney’s job was to identify specific social and psychological groups to target.

One was men who hoped to be seen as the neighborhood’s hero, keeping everyone safe, said Dr. Gayney, who left Ford in 2022. Another group was women who viewed a roomy S.U.V. as a way to be the community’s caregiver, taking the soccer team out for ice cream.

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“We’re kind of in this American mind-set that bigger is better,” she said.

An Unintended Consequence

In 2009, after a spate of fatal incidents in which drivers were crushed in rollovers, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration required roofs to be strong enough to support three times the weight of a vehicle. Many automakers responded by installing thicker A-pillars.

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James Forbes, who was a longtime engineering manager at Ford, said that after the company began installing the fatter A-pillars, he and his colleagues noticed that they were reducing drivers’ visibility.

The drivers were safer, but pedestrians were in greater peril. “We were very much biasing safety toward the owner of the vehicle,” Mr. Forbes said.

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Those potential dangers began attracting attention, with articles in the Detroit Free Press and Consumer Reports.

By 2022, the lack of visibility in large vehicles had become a concern for researchers at the Transportation Department’s Volpe Center, whose mission is to identify and address problems in the transportation system.

That November, the researchers met with leaders at the department and N.H.T.S.A. They delivered a stark message: Large vehicles, with their big blind zones, were increasingly deadly. They were killing hundreds of pedestrians and cyclists every year and injuring thousands more, the researchers estimated, according to attendees and meeting materials we reviewed.

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The researchers hoped that their warning would spur regulators to consider how to address the problem.

But a senior N.H.T.S.A. official disputed the data and argued that new pedestrian-sensing technologies were already improving safety.

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“There was just zero acknowledgement of the problem,” said Angie Byrne, a former Volpe Center employee who was involved with the research and attended the meeting.

The meeting ended with no plan for action.

The Closed Casket

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The U.S. government has paid scant attention to how the size of vehicles affects the safety of pedestrians.

Federal regulators don’t collect much data about the heights of vehicles’ hoods. But we found one service that does: Expert AutoStats.

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Our analysis shows a radical change in the makeup of American vehicles over the past two decades.

Not only have many drivers abandoned traditional cars in favor of S.U.V.s and pickups. But millions have flocked to vehicles with hoods that are more than 50 inches tall — like the Ford F-250 and Chevrolet Silverado 2500 — whose ranks have increased more than five-fold since 2002.

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Percent of vehicles on the road by hood height

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Source: A New York Times analysis of registration data from S&P Global and vehicle dimension data from Expert AutoStats.

To understand how a vehicle’s size affects a crash’s lethality, we built a statistical model. Our goal was to estimate how many fewer pedestrians, if any, would have died in a world in which vehicles had remained roughly the same size since 2002.

We started with a federal database that contains a nationally representative sample of crashes reported to the police from 2016 to 2024. We narrowed that down to those involving a single vehicle and a single pedestrian. And we added the data on hood heights, which wasn’t included in the federal database.

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Our model then analyzed the degree to which different factors — such as hood height, weather conditions, time of day and whether alcohol was involved — affected whether pedestrians died.

Crashes are complex events, and the data we fed into our model doesn’t capture everything about each incident. And, of course, there is no way to definitively say what would have happened in an alternate reality where vehicles had not continued to grow larger.

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But based on the best available data, the model reached a sobering estimate: The shift toward vehicles with higher hoods caused about 3,000 deaths from 2016 to 2024.

The estimate is conservative in many ways.

For example, it doesn’t include collisions that occur in places like parking lots, driveways or private roads, which are not part of the federal database. Hundreds of pedestrians a year are estimated to die in such crashes, a number that has been increasing.

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Only in the past several years have researchers started exploring whether and how larger vehicles threaten pedestrians.

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, for example, found last year that vehicles with larger blind zones were substantially more likely to hit pedestrians when turning left.

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One evening in October 2016, Margaret Lacey, a 57-year-old nurse, was taking her dog for a walk in Jefferson County, Colo.

She was in a crosswalk as Ernest Martinez, a 50-year-old construction manager, was turning left in his Ford Excursion. He later said he hadn’t seen Ms. Lacey until his S.U.V. was nearly upon her. His view had been blocked by the A-pillar, a crash reconstructionist found.

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He slammed the brakes, but he still hit her.

The hood of his 2002 Excursion — large for its time but common by today’s standards — was nearly four feet tall. It came up to Ms. Lacey’s chest. The impact sent her flying. Her head smashed into the pavement.

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Margaret Lacey was hit by an S.U.V. in a crosswalk in 2016. Lucy Garrett for The New York Times

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When Ms. Lacey’s sister, Betty, learned of her death, she flew to the United States from Ireland. Lucy Garrett for The New York Times

Mr. Martinez leapt out of his vehicle and knelt by her side. “I prayed with her,” he said in an interview. “I just held her hand and watched her go.” Her dog also died.

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When Ms. Lacey’s sister, Betty, learned of her death, she flew to the United States from Ireland. She wanted an open casket, following her family tradition. But her sister’s head was grievously misshapen. “The only part that looked like Margaret was her hands,” Betty said.

The coffin was closed. Her funeral was held at a Catholic chapel in Denver, and Mr. Martinez was among the mourners. “May God bless you all, and I pray that you all will find peace,” he wrote in the condolence book.

“I’m sorry.”

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Rachel Woolf for The New York Times

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Methodology

We used four main datasets to conduct our analysis: crash data from N.H.T.S.A.’s Crash Report Sampling System (C.R.S.S.) from 2016 to 2024, the most recent year available; N.H.T.S.A.’s Fatality Analysis Reporting System (F.A.R.S.); vehicle measurements from Expert AutoStats; and registration information from S&P Global from 2002 to 2024. The datasets characterized vehicle models differently, so we standardized the descriptions. Part of that involved using an A.I. model. We reviewed thousands of matches and found no errors among them.

To estimate the effect of hood height on a vehicle’s lethality, we narrowed the C.R.S.S. data to single-pedestrian, single-vehicle crashes. We excluded motorcycles and commercial trucks, as well as collisions in which the vehicle was moving backward. That left us with about 6,000 incidents.

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Then we ran what’s known as a logistic regression. We took the following crash conditions into account: speed limit, bad weather, lighting, alcohol involvement, crash year, and vehicle year and whether the crash occurred in an urban area. We also accounted for the sex and age of the pedestrian and the driver. We included only crashes in which all these variables were available and accounted for C.R.S.S.’s sampling method.

We found hood height to be a statistically significant (p-value = 0.003) predictor of pedestrian death in a crash. The estimated magnitude of this effect is a 2.8 percent increase in the odds of a pedestrian fatality for every one-inch increase in hood height.

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We also considered alternative models that included reported crash speed, hood angle and hood length. In all variants, hood height remained a statistically significant predictor of deadliness. Hood height had a lower effect in our model than in most variants, indicating that our estimates may be conservative.

We used our model to estimate the number of pedestrian deaths that would have occurred under two counterfactual scenarios.

In the first scenario, we decreased the hood height of each vehicle in our dataset by three inches, equal to the increase of the average hood height since 2002. We computed how much this change would reduce the predicted probability of a pedestrian death for each crash. We multiplied the yearly average reduction, which was about 7 percent for all years, by the total number of pedestrian fatalities in the F.A.R.S. dataset, which provides a national census of fatal crashes. As with the C.R.S.S. dataset, we also filtered to single-vehicle, single-pedestrian crashes with non-commercial vehicles in the F.A.R.S. dataset. This resulted in a range of 306 to 377 lives saved, or 3,077 in total from 2016 to 2024.

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In the second scenario, we took a random sample of hood heights from 2002 and applied them to more recent crashes in our database. Across 10,000 simulations, this reduced the probability of pedestrian death by about 5 percent to 7 percent, depending on the year. That amounted to 222 to 361 lives saved each year, or a total of 2,624.

To measure the differences in visibility among pickup trucks, we used an Artec Leo structured light scanner to create three-dimensional models of the trucks.

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We scanned four of the most popular pickup models: Silverado, F-150, Sierra and Tacoma. We scanned one of each model from the 1990s or early 2000s and one from the modern-day fleet. Before scanning, we adjusted the driver’s seat to the middlemost position.

Next, we used a technique called aperture projection to calculate how much space was visible through each window. We used these figures to determine the size and shape of the blind zones in front and to the sides of the driver, up to 50 feet.

We ran these calculations twice for each vehicle: from the perspective of a 5-foot-11 driver and from that of a 5-foot-6 driver. The differences were the same or smaller for the taller driver, so we used those results to be conservative.

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We estimated the percentage of Americans under 5-foot-6 based on an analysis by Matthew Parkinson of Pennsylvania State University. The 3D Silverado that appears in the article was created with the help of Kevin Shain from Laser Design.

We consulted with a number of industry experts to develop and check our methodology, including Justin Tyndall from the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization and Steve Summerskill at Loughborough University in England.

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