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Federal Reserve officials were divided over September’s big rate cut

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Federal Reserve officials were divided over September’s big rate cut

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Federal Reserve officials were at odds over the US central bank’s decision to lower interest rates by a half-point last month, according to a record of the meeting released on Wednesday.

Minutes from the September meeting indicated support for a gradual pace of rate cuts in future, but showed some divisions across the Federal Open Market Committee as the central bank embarked on its first easing cycle since 2020.

September’s rate decision, which lowered the policy rate to 4.75-5 per cent, was not unanimous, with Michelle Bowman becoming the first governor to dissent since 2005. She argued that a more “measured” quarter-point cut would “avoid unnecessarily stoking demand”.

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The minutes, released on Wednesday, showed that some participants preferred a quarter-point cut, with “a few others” indicating they could have supported a move of that size instead of the larger-than-usual half-point cut.

“Several participants noted that a 25 basis point reduction would be in line with a gradual path of policy normalisation that would allow policymakers time to assess the degree of policy restrictiveness as the economy evolved,” the minutes said.

It would also signal “a more predictable path of policy normalisation”, a few people said, according to the minutes.

Officials supporting the half-point move — which the minutes showed had the support of a “substantial majority” — said it would “help sustain the strength in the economy and the labour market while continuing to promote progress on inflation, and would reflect the balance of risks”. Many of those officials thought a quarter-point cut in July — when the Fed held off any move — would have been “plausible”.

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The Fed’s “dot plot” of officials’ individual rate projections, released at the meeting last month, showed most saw another half-point worth of cuts this year and more in 2025 when rates were estimated to drop to 3.25-3.5 per cent.

The minutes did not suggest support for another large rate cut, hinting instead that US central bankers were inclined to gradually lower rates to a “neutral” setting that no longer crimps growth.

“Participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation moving down sustainably to 2 per cent and the economy near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move toward a more neutral stance of policy over time,” the minutes said.

Since the meeting, top Fed officials have signalled little urgency for another half-point cut at the next meeting in November, especially after a bumper jobs report for September.

That report quelled fears that the US was heading for recession and boosted the odds that the Fed would get inflation back to its 2 per cent target with minimal job losses.

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In an interview with the Financial Times this week, New York Fed president John Williams said officials’ projections for smaller cuts in the coming meetings was a “very good base case”.

Chair Jay Powell has also said that the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee was “not a committee that feels like it’s in a hurry to cut rates quickly”.

On Wednesday, Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan also backed the Fed cutting rates “gradually”, citing “meaningful risk that inflation could get stuck above our 2 per cent goal”.

The Fed will next meet just days after the US presidential election and then again in mid-December. The central bank will on Thursday receive its final inflation report before the country votes.

Economists forecast that the annual inflation rate in the consumer price index fell to 2.3 per cent last month, the lowest level since February 2021.

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Services-related inflation has been more stubborn, keeping the “core” measure, which strips out volatile food and energy items, more elevated. That gauge is expected to have steadied at 3.2 per cent in September.

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How a Beer Hall Keeps Up With a World Cup Crowd

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The fans see the games, the crowds, the food and the beer. But behind every World Cup watch party is a team working long before kickoff and well after the final whistle. We go behind the scenes at a beer hall in Brooklyn to see what it takes to serve a room full of soccer fans on game day.

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With the white nationalist group Patriot Front, what you see is not what you get

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With the white nationalist group Patriot Front, what you see is not what you get

Members of the group Patriot Front ride the subway as a commuter looks on, in Washington, D.C., on July 4.

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Cheney Orr/Reuters

The sight of hundreds of masked men roaming the streets of Washington, D.C., on July Fourth weekend, wearing khakis, blue shirts and uniform patches, was chilling to some of the city’s residents.

For many Americans, it was the first they heard about Patriot Front, a white nationalist organization that was born out of the deadly 2017 Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Va. A now-viral Reuters photo prompted reflections on the experience of a lone African American woman who was photographed in a Metro subway car, surrounded by white supremacists.

The planned demonstration of force was timed to bring a fringe group of extremists into public view as the nation marked 250 years of its independence. Indeed, the stunt succeeded in earning the group media coverage across mainstream outlets, amplifying its brand and potential to reach new recruits. On this occasion, the members refrained from engaging in violence and property damage, projecting an image of law-abiding, orderly activism.

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But those who are closely familiar with Patriot Front’s history and operations warn: Don’t believe what you see.

“That is not who they are in private,” said Len Kamdang, director of the Criminal Justice Project at the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. “Although they were on their best behavior [last] weekend, this is a dangerous group that commits acts of violence all over the country.”

Patriot Front’s history of violence and property damage

Kamdang’s organization sued members of Patriot Front for vandalizing a public mural dedicated to the tennis legend and Black activist Arthur Ashe in Richmond, Va., in 2021. Ashe, who was inducted into the International Tennis Hall of Fame in 1985, was born in Richmond and his legacy is a continuing source of pride to members of that community.

“A couple of Patriot Front members showed up under cover of night and vandalized the mural,” Kamdang said. “They painted white stencils all over. … They literally tried to whitewash him and they put their symbols of hate all over — their stencils, their slogans. And all the while they were caught on video. And that video leaked using some of the most horrible language that you can imagine.”

In many jurisdictions, law enforcement can seek additional hate crime charges or sentencing enhancements in cases where illegal acts appear to have been motivated by racial bias. But in this case, Kamdang said, Patriot Front members faced no criminal charges and their identities were only revealed when online activists later infiltrated the group and leaked internal records.

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Graham Platner makes it official in Maine, submitting paperwork to leave Senate race

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Graham Platner makes it official in Maine, submitting paperwork to leave Senate race

Now-former Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner speaks at his primary election night event on June 9 in Blue Hill, Maine. Platner officially dropped out of the race July 10 following rape allegations from a former romantic partner that he denies.

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Graham Platner, Maine’s Democratic nominee for Senate, is officially out of the race.

The Maine Secretary of State said Platner filed the necessary paperwork to withdraw his candidacy two days after he announced he planned to do so following an accusation of rape by a former romantic partner. Platner denies the allegation.

The Maine Democratic Party has until July 27 to pick Platner’s replacement.

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In his withdrawal notice, Platner said “people are desperate for change” and that’s why they voted “for a new kind of politics” by making him the Democratic nominee. He expressed gratitude for those who supported his campaign and said that he will continue to fight for “the movement we have built together and the future we believe in.”

He ended his notice with a strong statement aligned with the progressive platform.

“F*ck ICE. Free Palestine. Up the Hearts.”

Platner announced his plan to withdraw from the race in an 11-minute video he posted to social media on July 8. He said he had no choice but to suspend his campaign, citing it was no longer viable financially.

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“We are going to lose our ability to fundraise. We are going to lose our ability to access voter data. We are going to lose all of the things that any campaign needs on the basic level simply to function,” he said.

Platner added that dropping out was not an admission of guilt. Rather, the decision, he said, is to keep the progressive movement in Maine alive to defeat Republican Sen. Susan Collins in November. Platner blamed the “political establishment” for his downfall and argued the goal was to force him out of the race.

“We built a campaign. We engaged in electoral politics. We motivated people. We banded together. We did it the way that we were told we are supposed to make change and we won. And now they are not going to let us have it. Not if it’s me,” he said.

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