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Analysis: Is Trump a lame duck now? | CNN Politics

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Analysis: Is Trump a lame duck now? | CNN Politics

A version of this story appeared in CNN’s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here.

For the first time in his second term, President Donald Trump was confronted by his fellow Republicans. And he fell in line.

Rather than face a massive defection of Republican votes in the House, Trump flipped to support a bill to force the Department of Justice to release non-classified files related to the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The flip-flop was a long time coming. The House of Representatives stayed out of session for more than a month during the government shutdown, which helped to shield Trump from this vote. After Trump ultimately endorsed the bill he had previously opposed, there was near-unanimity when the House voted on it Tuesday.

It now appears to be on a glide path to Trump’s desk.

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It’s not clear that Trump will appear in the remainder of the files as he did in emails from Epstein’s estate released by the House Oversight Committee last week. But it’s definitely clear that Trump has no interest in continuing to talk about Epstein. When a reporter asked Trump in the Oval Office Tuesday why he doesn’t just release the files, he shot back that she was a bad reporter.

“Quiet, piggy,” was how he sternly reacted with a pointed finger to another reporter last week on Air Force One when she asked about the Epstein files.

The argument that seems to have convinced Republicans to break with Trump on releasing the Epstein files and vote was best expressed by Rep. Thomas Massie, the Kentucky Republican who has tangled with the administration on multiple issues.

“The deal for Republicans on this vote is that Trump will protect you if you vote the wrong way,” Massie told CNN’s Manu Raju last week. “In other words, if you vote to cover up for pedophiles, you’ve got cover in a Republican primary. But I would remind my colleagues that this vote is gonna be on your record for longer than Trump is gonna be president.”

Pair that sentiment with Trump’s recent acknowledgment that he will not be on the ballot in 2028, which means he won’t be president in 2029, and you have the makings of a lame-duck presidency.

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There are other issues dividing the GOP, as CNN’s Aaron Blake noted Tuesday. In addition to the Epstein files, Republicans are grousing about Trump’s foreign focus; his apparent lack of understanding of the issue of affordability and how it relates to his tariff policy; the destruction of the White House East Wing; and the way his family is appearing to enrich itself.

Pretty much all of these issues were on display at Trump’s Oval Office appearance Monday, when he sat next to and defended Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

None of this means that Republican lawmakers are going to turn on Trump en masse in the near future. But it does mean you will hear that term, lame duck, with more frequency.

Believe it or not, “lame duck” is a technical term in US politics. Historians in both the House and Senate track lame-duck terms.

To them, it refers to a politician in the period after their successor has been elected, but before that person is sworn in. The outgoing politician still technically has power, but is no longer really accountable to voters.

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From a technical standpoint, no. US voters will vote twice before Trump leaves office: in midterms next year and the general election to replace him in 2028. His presidency will play a factor in both of those elections. The government will have to be funded each year, and natural disasters and other events will require leadership.

But the term also has a more colloquial meaning that refers to anyone who can’t be reelected. That included Trump starting on Day 1 of his second term. But his superpower in recent years has been his hold over the Republican Party. That power, at least in theory, will fade a smidge every time he asks Republican lawmakers to do something voters will not like.

Just because a president is losing power does not mean there is nothing important going on. The ultimate lame-duck disaster occurred in 1860, after the election of Abraham Lincoln but before he was sworn in. That’s when Southern states started seceding from the union, starting with South Carolina in December.

George W. Bush ushered in a bailout to the financial system during the Great Recession just before his successor, Barack Obama, was elected.

The 20th Amendment to the Constitution was ratified in 1933 in part to shorten the length of lame-duck sessions. Originally, in the pre-modern horse-and-buggy era, unless the president called Congress into session earlier, lawmakers would not convene for a new Congress until 13 months after Election Day.

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There’s a lot more time than that — a little less than 36 months — until the next presidential election.

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US says Kuwait accidentally shot down 3 American jets

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US says Kuwait accidentally shot down 3 American jets

The U.S. and Israel have been conducting strikes against targets in Iran since Saturday morning, with the aim of toppling Tehran’s clerical regime. Iran has fired back, with retaliatory assaults featuring missiles and drones targeting several Gulf countries and American bases in the Middle East.

“All six aircrew ejected safely, have been safely recovered, and are in stable condition. Kuwait has acknowledged this incident, and we are grateful for the efforts of the Kuwaiti defense forces and their support in this ongoing operation,” Central Command said.

“The cause of the incident is under investigation. Additional information will be released as it becomes available,” it added.

In a separate statement later Monday, Central Command said that American forces had been killed during combat since the strikes began.

“As of 7:30 am ET, March 2, four U.S. service members have been killed in action. The fourth service member, who was seriously wounded during Iran’s initial attacks, eventually succumbed to their injuries,” it said.

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Major combat operations continue and our response effort is ongoing. The identities of the fallen are being withheld until 24 hours after next of kin notification,” Central Command added.

This story has been updated.

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Satellite images provide view inside Iran at war

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Satellite images provide view inside Iran at war

Smoke rises over Konarak naval base in southern Iran on Sunday. The base was one of hundreds of targets of U.S. and Israeli forces throughout the country.

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Commercial satellite images are providing a unique look at the extent of damage being done to Iran’s military facilities across the country.

The U.S. and Israeli military campaign opened with a daytime attack that struck Iranian leadership in central Tehran. Smoke was still visible rising from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound following the attack that killed the supreme leader.

An image by the company Airbus taken on Saturday shows the aftermath of an Israeli strike on Iran's Leadership House in central Tehran. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening wave of attacks.

An image by the company Airbus taken on Saturday shows the aftermath of an Israeli strike on Iran’s Leadership House in central Tehran. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening wave of attacks.

Pléiades Neo (c) Airbus DS 2026

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Israel and the U.S. have gone on to strike targets across the country. Reports on social media indicate that there have been numerous military bases and compounds attacked all over Iran, and Iran has responded with attacks throughout the Middle East.

U.S. forces have also been striking at Iran’s navy. In a post on his social media platform, President Trump said that he had been briefed that U.S. forces had sunk nine Iranian naval vessels. U.S. Central Command did not immediately confirm that number but it did say it had struck an Iranian warship in port.

An image captured on February 28 shows a ship burning at Iran's naval base at Konarak.

An image captured on Saturday shows a ship burning at Iran’s naval base at Konarak.

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Numerous satellite images show burning vessels at Konarak naval base in southern Iran. Images also show damage to a nearby airbase where hardened hangers were struck by precision munitions.

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Hardened aircraft shelters at Konarak Airbase were struck with precision munitions.

Hardened aircraft shelters at Konarak airbase were struck with precision munitions.

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And there was extensive damage at a drone base in the same area. Iran has launched numerous drones and missiles toward Israel and U.S. military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Many drones have been intercepted but videos on social media show that some have evaded air defenses and caused damage in nearby Gulf countries. In Dubai, debris from an Iranian drone damaged the iconic Burj Al Arab, according to a statement from Dubai’s government.

Buildings at an Iranian drone base at Konarak were destroyed in the strikes.

Buildings at an Iranian drone base at Konarak were destroyed in the strikes.

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Iran’s most powerful weapons are its long-range missiles. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards have hidden the missiles deep inside mountain tunnels. Images taken Sunday in the mountains of northern Iran indicate that some of those tunnels were hit in a wave of strikes.

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Following Khamenei’s death, Iran declared 40 days of mourning. Satellite images showed mourners gathering in Tehran’s Enghelab square on Sunday.

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told NPR on Sunday that Iran will continue to fight “foreign aggression, foreign domination.”

A White House official told NPR that Trump plans to talk to Iran’s interim leadership “eventually,” but that for now, U.S. operations continue in the region “unabated.”

A large crowd of mourners fill Enghelab Square in Tehran on Sunday, following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

A large crowd of mourners fill Enghelab Square in Tehran on Sunday, following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

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Video: What the Texas Primary Battle Means for the Midterms

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Video: What the Texas Primary Battle Means for the Midterms

new video loaded: What the Texas Primary Battle Means for the Midterms

The first battle of the midterm elections will be the U.S. Senate primary in Texas. Our Texas bureau chief, David Goodman, explains why Democrats and Republicans across the U.S. are watching closely to see what happens in the state.

By J. David Goodman, Alexandra Ostasiewicz, June Kim and Luke Piotrowski

March 1, 2026

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