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Death Toll in Gaza Likely 40 Percent Higher Than Reported, Researchers Say

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Death Toll in Gaza Likely 40 Percent Higher Than Reported, Researchers Say

Deaths from bombs and other traumatic injuries during the first nine months of the war in Gaza may have been underestimated by more than 40 percent, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet.

The peer-reviewed statistical analysis, led by epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, used modeling in an effort to provide an objective third-party estimate of casualties. The United Nations has relied on the figure from the Hamas-led Ministry of Health, which it says has been largely accurate, but which Israel criticizes as inflated.

But the new analysis suggests the Hamas health ministry tally is a significant undercount. The researchers concluded that the death toll from Israel’s aerial bombardment and military ground operation in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024 was about 64,300, rather than the 37,900 reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

The estimate in the analysis corresponds to 2.9 percent of Gaza’s prewar population having been killed by traumatic injury, or one in 35 inhabitants. The analysis did not account for other war-related casualties such as deaths from malnutrition, water-borne illness or the breakdown of the health system as the conflict progressed.

The study found that 59 percent of the dead were women, children and people over the age of 65. It did not establish what share of the reported dead were combatants.

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Mike Spagat, an expert on calculating casualties of war who was not involved in this research, said the new analysis convinced him that Gaza casualties were underestimated.

“This is a good piece of evidence that the real number is higher, probably substantially higher, than the Ministry of Health’s official numbers, higher than I had been thinking over the last few months,” said Dr. Spagat, who is a professor at Royal Holloway College at the University of London.

But the presentation of precise figures, such as a 41 percent underreported mortality, is less useful, he said, since the analysis actually shows the real total could be less than, or substantially more. “Quantitatively, it’s a lot more uncertain than I think comes out in the paper,” Dr. Spagat said.

The researchers said their estimate of 64,260 deaths from traumatic injury has a “confidence interval” between 55,298 and 78,525, which means the actual number of casualties is likely in that range.

If the estimated level of underreporting of deaths through June 2024 is extrapolated out to October 2024, the total Gazan casualty figure in the first year of the war would exceed 70,000.

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“There is an importance to war injury deaths, because it speaks to the question of whether the campaign is proportional, whether it is, in fact, the case that sufficient provisions are made to to avoid civilian casualties,” said Francesco Checchi, an epidemiologist with an expertise in conflict and humanitarian crises and a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who was an author on the study. “I do think memorializing is important. There is inherent value in just trying to come up with the right number.”

The analysis uses a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis, which has been used to estimate casualties in other conflicts, including civil wars in Colombia and Sudan.

For Gaza, the researchers drew on three lists: The first is a register maintained by the Palestinian Ministry of Health, which mainly comprises the dead in hospital morgues and estimates of the number of unrecovered people buried in rubble. The second is deaths reported by family or community members through an online survey form the ministry established on Jan. 1, 2024, when the prewar death registration system had broken down. It asked Palestinians inside and outside Gaza to provide names, ages, national ID number and location of death for casualties. The third source was obituaries of people who died from injuries that were published on social media, which may not include all of the same biographical details and which the researchers compiled by hand.

The researchers analyzed these sources to look for individuals who appear on multiple lists of those killed. A high level of overlap would have suggested that few deaths were uncounted; the low amount they found suggested the opposite. The researchers used models to calculate the probability of each individual appearing on any of the three lists.

“Models enable us to actually estimate the number of people who have not been listed at all,” Dr. Checchi said. That, combined with the listed number, gave the analysts their total.

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Patrick Ball, director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, and a statistician who has conducted similar estimates of violent deaths in conflicts in other regions, said the study was strong and well reasoned. But he cautioned that the authors may have underestimated the amount of uncertainty caused by the ongoing conflict.

The authors used different variations of mathematical models in their calculations, but Dr. Ball said that rather than presenting a single figure — 64,260 deaths — as the estimate, it may have been more appropriate to present the number of deaths as a range from 47,457 to 88,332 deaths, a span that encompasses all of the estimates produced by modeling the overlap among the three lists.

“It’s really hard to do this kind of thing in the middle of a conflict,” Dr. Ball said. “It takes time, and it takes access. I think you could say the range is larger, and that would be plausible.”

While Gaza had a strong death registration process before the war, it now has only limited function after the destruction of much of the health system. Deaths are uncounted when whole families are killed simultaneously, leaving no one to report, or when an unknown number of people die in the collapse of a large building; Gazans are increasingly buried near their homes without passing through a morgue, Dr. Checchi said.

The authors of the study acknowledged that some of those assumed dead may in fact be missing, most likely taken as prisoners in Israel.

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Roni Caryn Rabin and Lauren Leatherby contributed reporting.

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The Latest on Natural Ozempic Alternatives: How To Lose Weight Without GLP-1s

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The Latest on Natural Ozempic Alternatives: How To Lose Weight Without GLP-1s


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Punch the monkey, viral star, experiences dramatic breakthrough among zoo mates

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Punch the monkey, viral star, experiences dramatic breakthrough among zoo mates

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In a dramatic turn of events that’s captured the attention of animal lovers worldwide, Punch — the young macaque at a zoo in Japan famous for his inseparable bond with a stuffed orangutan toy — has reached a major milestone in his journey toward social integration.

On Thursday, visitors and staff at the Ichikawa Zoological and Botanical Garden witnessed a breakthrough: Punch was seen cuddling with and hitching a ride on the back of a fellow macaque.

Punch’s story began with hardship. He was abandoned by his mother shortly after his birth in July 2025 — and to ensure his survival, zookeepers stepped in to hand-rear the primate.

On Jan. 19, 2026, the zoo officially began the process of reintegrating Punch into the “monkey mountain” enclosure.

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The transition was initially fraught with tension. 

Punch’s story began with hardship when he was abandoned by his mother shortly after he was born. To help him, zookeepers gave him a stuffed toy that he began dragging around everywhere he went.  (David Mareuil/Anadolu via Getty Images)

As a hand-reared infant, Punch was bullied and ignored by the established group of monkeys.

He was often seen huddled alone with his orange plush companion while the rest of the troop interacted.

BABY MONKEY CARRIES FAITHFUL STUFFED COMPANION EVERYWHERE HE GOES, DRAWING CROWDS AT ZOO

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In an official statement released Feb. 27, the Ichikawa Zoological and Botanical Garden detailed the meticulous care behind this process.

Previous viral videos showed Punch bullied by the rest of the troop, running to his plushy toy for comfort. (David Mareuil/Anadolu via Getty Images)

“From an animal welfare perspective, our primary goal is to reintegrate Punch with the troop,” the zoo said. 

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The strategy involved nursing Punch within the enclosure, so the troop could recognize him as one of their own, and pairing him with a gentle young female macaque prior to his full release to build his confidence.

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The latest footage, captured by X user @tate_gf, suggested the zoo’s patience is paying off. 

The video shows Punch seeking physical contact not from his toy, but from another monkey — eventually climbing onto its back for a vital social behavior for young macaques: the “piggyback ride.”

The zoo’s strategy appears to be paying off: Punch, shown at far left, was recently seen riding on the back of a fellow macaque. (David Mareuil/Anadolu via Getty Images)

While Punch still carries his stuffed toy for comfort during moments of perceived danger, the zoo remains optimistic about his progress. 

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The organization cited the successful 2009 case of Otome, another hand-reared macaque who eventually outgrew her stuffed toy, successfully integrated — and went on to raise four offspring of her own.

The zoo has had crowds coming to see Punch, with hundreds of people lining up to get inside to see the young star, according to reports. 

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“I’m hoping Punch has a good life like everybody else does, and think he’s a cute little guy,” one person commented online. 

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“Such a precious baby,” another person wrote. 

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ChatGPT could miss your serious medical emergency, new study suggests

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ChatGPT could miss your serious medical emergency, new study suggests

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This story discusses suicide. If you or someone you know is having thoughts of suicide, please contact the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline at 988 or 1-800-273-TALK (8255).

Artificial intelligence has been touted as a boon to healthcare, but a new study has revealed its potential shortcomings when it comes to giving medical advice.

In January, OpenAI launched ChatGPT Health, the medical-focused version of the popular chatbot tool. 

The company introduced the tool as “a dedicated experience that securely brings your health information and ChatGPT’s intelligence together, to help you feel more informed, prepared and confident navigating your health.”

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But researchers at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai have found that the tool failed to recommend emergency care for a “significant number” of serious medical cases.

The study, published in the journal Nature Medicine on Feb. 23, aimed to explore how ChatGPT Health — which is reported to have about 40 million users daily — handles situations where people are asking whether to seek emergency care.

Artificial intelligence has been touted as a boon to healthcare, but a new study has revealed its potential shortcomings when it comes to giving medical advice. (iStock)

“Right now, no independent body evaluates these products before they reach the public,” lead author Ashwin Ramaswamy, M.D., instructor of urology at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City, told Fox News Digital.

“We wouldn’t accept that for a medication or a medical device, and we shouldn’t accept it for a product that tens of millions of people are using to make health decisions.”

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Emergency scenarios

The team created 60 clinical scenarios across 21 medical specialties, ranging from minor conditions to true medical emergencies.

Three independent physicians then assigned an appropriate level of urgency for each case, based on published clinical practice guidelines in 56 medical societies.

WOMAN SAYS CHATGPT SAVED HER LIFE BY HELPING DETECT CANCER, WHICH DOCTORS MISSED

The researchers conducted 960 interactions with ChatGPT Health to see how the tool responded, taking into account gender, race, barriers to care and “social dynamics.”

While “clear-cut emergencies” — such as stroke or severe allergy — were generally handled well, the researchers found that the tool “under-triaged” many urgent medical issues.  

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The team created 60 clinical scenarios across 21 medical specialties, ranging from minor conditions to true medical emergencies. (iStock)

For example, in one asthma scenario, the system acknowledged that the patient was showing early signs of respiratory failure — but still recommended waiting instead of seeking emergency care.

“ChatGPT Health performs well in medium-severity cases, but fails at both ends of the spectrum — the cases where getting it right matters most,” Ramaswamy told Fox News Digital. “It under-triaged over half of genuine emergencies and over-triaged roughly two-thirds of mild cases that clinical guidelines say should be managed at home.”

PARENTS FILE LAWSUIT ALLEGING CHATGPT HELPED THEIR TEENAGE SON PLAN SUICIDE

Under-triage can be life-threatening, the doctor noted, while over-triage can overwhelm emergency departments and delay care for those in real need.

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Researchers also identified inconsistencies in suicide risk alerts. In some cases, it directed users to the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline in lower-risk scenarios, and in others, it failed to offer that recommendation even when a person discussed suicidal ideations.

“ChatGPT Health performs well in medium-severity cases, but fails at both ends of the spectrum.”

“The suicide guardrail failure was the most alarming,” study co-author Girish N. Nadkarni, M.D., chief AI officer of the Mount Sinai Health System, told Fox News Digital.

ChatGPT Health is designed to show a crisis intervention banner when someone describes thoughts of self-harm, the researcher noted.

OpenAI launched ChatGPT Health, the medical-focused version of the popular chatbot tool, in January 2026. (Gabby Jones/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

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“We tested it with a 27-year-old patient who said he’d been thinking about taking a lot of pills,” Nadkarni said. “When he described his symptoms alone, the banner appeared 100% of the time. Then we added normal lab results — same patient, same words, same severity — and the banner vanished.” 

“A safety feature that works perfectly in one context and completely fails in a nearly identical context … is a fundamental safety problem.”

CHATGPT HEALTH PROMISES PRIVACY FOR HEALTH CONVERSATIONS

The researchers were also surprised by the social influence aspect.

“When a family member in the scenario said ‘it’s nothing serious’ — which happens all the time in real life — the system became nearly 12 times more likely to downplay the patient’s symptoms,” Nadkarni said. “Everyone has a spouse or parent who tells them they’re overreacting. The AI shouldn’t be agreeing with them during a potential emergency.”

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Fox News Digital reached out to Open AI, creator of ChatGPT, requesting comment.

Physicians react

Dr. Marc Siegel, Fox News senior medical analyst, called the new study “important.” 

“It underlines the principle that while large language models can triage clear-cut emergencies, they have much more trouble with nuanced situations,” Siegel, who was not involved in the study, told Fox News Digital. 

ChatGPT and other LLMs can be helpful tools, a doctor said, but they “should not be used to give medical direction.” (iStock)

“This is where doctors and clinical judgment come in — knowing the nuances of a patient’s history and how they report symptoms and their approach to health.”

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ChatGPT and other LLMs can be helpful tools, Siegel said, but they “should not be used to give medical direction.”

“Machine learning and continued input of data can help, but will never compensate for the essential problem – human judgment is needed to decide whether something is a true emergency or not.”

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Dr. Harvey Castro, an emergency physician and AI expert in Texas, echoed the importance of the study, calling it “exactly the kind of independent safety evaluation we need.”

“Innovation moves fast. Oversight has to move just as fast,” Castro, who also did not work on the study, told Fox News Digital. “In healthcare, the most dangerous mistakes happen at the extremes, when something looks mild but is actually catastrophic. That’s where clinical judgment matters most, and where AI must be stress-tested.”

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Study limitations

The researchers acknowledged some potential limitations in the study design.

“We used physician-written clinical scenarios rather than real patient conversations, and we tested at a single point in time — these systems update frequently, so performance may change,” Ramaswamy told Fox News Digital.

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Additionally, most of the missed emergencies happened in situations where the danger depended on how the condition was changing over time. It’s not clear whether the same problem would happen with acute medical emergencies.

Because the system had to choose just one fixed urgency category, the test may not reflect the more nuanced advice it might give in a back-and-forth conversation, the researchers noted. 

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ChatGPT Health is designed to show a crisis intervention banner when someone describes thoughts of self-harm. (iStock)

Also, the study wasn’t large enough to confidently detect small differences in how recommendations might vary by race or gender.

“We need continuous auditing, not one-time studies,” Castro noted. “These systems update frequently, so evaluation must be ongoing.”

‘Don’t wait’

The researchers emphasized the importance of seeking immediate care for serious issues.

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“If something feels seriously wrong — chest pain, difficulty breathing, a severe allergic reaction, thoughts of self-harm — go to the emergency department or call 988,” Ramaswamy advised. “Don’t wait for an AI to tell you it’s OK.”

The researchers noted that they support the use of AI to improve healthcare access, and that they didn’t conduct the study to “tear down the technology.”

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“These tools can be genuinely useful for the right things — understanding a diagnosis you’ve already received, looking up what your medications do and their side effects, or getting answers to questions that didn’t get fully addressed in a short doctor’s visit,” Ramaswamy said. 

“That’s a very different use case from deciding whether you need emergency care. Treat them as a complement to your doctor, not a replacement.”

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“This study doesn’t mean we abandon AI in healthcare.”

Castro agreed that the benefits of AI health tools should be weighed against the risks.

“AI health tools can increase access, reduce unnecessary visits and empower patients with information,” he said. “They are not inherently unsafe, but they are not yet substitutes for clinical judgment.”

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“This study doesn’t mean we abandon AI in healthcare,” he went on. “It means we mature it. Independent testing and stronger guardrails will determine whether AI becomes a safety net or a liability.”

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