Health
Death Toll in Gaza Likely 40 Percent Higher Than Reported, Researchers Say
Deaths from bombs and other traumatic injuries during the first nine months of the war in Gaza may have been underestimated by more than 40 percent, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet.
The peer-reviewed statistical analysis, led by epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, used modeling in an effort to provide an objective third-party estimate of casualties. The United Nations has relied on the figure from the Hamas-led Ministry of Health, which it says has been largely accurate, but which Israel criticizes as inflated.
But the new analysis suggests the Hamas health ministry tally is a significant undercount. The researchers concluded that the death toll from Israel’s aerial bombardment and military ground operation in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024 was about 64,300, rather than the 37,900 reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
The estimate in the analysis corresponds to 2.9 percent of Gaza’s prewar population having been killed by traumatic injury, or one in 35 inhabitants. The analysis did not account for other war-related casualties such as deaths from malnutrition, water-borne illness or the breakdown of the health system as the conflict progressed.
The study found that 59 percent of the dead were women, children and people over the age of 65. It did not establish what share of the reported dead were combatants.
Mike Spagat, an expert on calculating casualties of war who was not involved in this research, said the new analysis convinced him that Gaza casualties were underestimated.
“This is a good piece of evidence that the real number is higher, probably substantially higher, than the Ministry of Health’s official numbers, higher than I had been thinking over the last few months,” said Dr. Spagat, who is a professor at Royal Holloway College at the University of London.
But the presentation of precise figures, such as a 41 percent underreported mortality, is less useful, he said, since the analysis actually shows the real total could be less than, or substantially more. “Quantitatively, it’s a lot more uncertain than I think comes out in the paper,” Dr. Spagat said.
The researchers said their estimate of 64,260 deaths from traumatic injury has a “confidence interval” between 55,298 and 78,525, which means the actual number of casualties is likely in that range.
If the estimated level of underreporting of deaths through June 2024 is extrapolated out to October 2024, the total Gazan casualty figure in the first year of the war would exceed 70,000.
“There is an importance to war injury deaths, because it speaks to the question of whether the campaign is proportional, whether it is, in fact, the case that sufficient provisions are made to to avoid civilian casualties,” said Francesco Checchi, an epidemiologist with an expertise in conflict and humanitarian crises and a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who was an author on the study. “I do think memorializing is important. There is inherent value in just trying to come up with the right number.”
The analysis uses a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis, which has been used to estimate casualties in other conflicts, including civil wars in Colombia and Sudan.
For Gaza, the researchers drew on three lists: The first is a register maintained by the Palestinian Ministry of Health, which mainly comprises the dead in hospital morgues and estimates of the number of unrecovered people buried in rubble. The second is deaths reported by family or community members through an online survey form the ministry established on Jan. 1, 2024, when the prewar death registration system had broken down. It asked Palestinians inside and outside Gaza to provide names, ages, national ID number and location of death for casualties. The third source was obituaries of people who died from injuries that were published on social media, which may not include all of the same biographical details and which the researchers compiled by hand.
The researchers analyzed these sources to look for individuals who appear on multiple lists of those killed. A high level of overlap would have suggested that few deaths were uncounted; the low amount they found suggested the opposite. The researchers used models to calculate the probability of each individual appearing on any of the three lists.
“Models enable us to actually estimate the number of people who have not been listed at all,” Dr. Checchi said. That, combined with the listed number, gave the analysts their total.
Patrick Ball, director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, and a statistician who has conducted similar estimates of violent deaths in conflicts in other regions, said the study was strong and well reasoned. But he cautioned that the authors may have underestimated the amount of uncertainty caused by the ongoing conflict.
The authors used different variations of mathematical models in their calculations, but Dr. Ball said that rather than presenting a single figure — 64,260 deaths — as the estimate, it may have been more appropriate to present the number of deaths as a range from 47,457 to 88,332 deaths, a span that encompasses all of the estimates produced by modeling the overlap among the three lists.
“It’s really hard to do this kind of thing in the middle of a conflict,” Dr. Ball said. “It takes time, and it takes access. I think you could say the range is larger, and that would be plausible.”
While Gaza had a strong death registration process before the war, it now has only limited function after the destruction of much of the health system. Deaths are uncounted when whole families are killed simultaneously, leaving no one to report, or when an unknown number of people die in the collapse of a large building; Gazans are increasingly buried near their homes without passing through a morgue, Dr. Checchi said.
The authors of the study acknowledged that some of those assumed dead may in fact be missing, most likely taken as prisoners in Israel.
Roni Caryn Rabin and Lauren Leatherby contributed reporting.
Use left and right arrow keys to navigate between menu items.
Use escape to exit the menu.
Sign Up
Create a free account to access exclusive content, play games, solve puzzles, test your pop-culture knowledge and receive special offers.
Already have an account? Login
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
A deadly, drug-resistant fungus already spreading rapidly through U.S. hospitals is becoming even more threatening worldwide, though there may be hope for new treatments, according to a new scientific review.
Candida auris (C. auris), often described as a “superbug fungus,” is spreading globally and increasingly resisting human immune systems, Hackensack Meridian Center for Discovery and Innovation (CDI) researchers said in a review published in early December.
The findings reinforce prior CDC warnings that have labeled C. auris an “urgent antimicrobial threat” — the first fungal pathogen to receive that designation — as U.S. cases have surged, particularly in hospitals and long-term care centers.
DANGEROUS SPIKE IN SUPERBUG INFECTIONS SURGES ACROSS US AS EXPERTS SHARE CAUTIONS
Approximately 7,000 cases were identified across dozens of U.S. states in 2025, according to the CDC, and it has reportedly been identified in at least 60 countries.
Candida auris is a drug-resistant fungus spreading in hospitals worldwide. (Nicolas Armer/Picture Alliance via Getty Images)
The review, published in Microbiology and Molecular Biology Reviews, helps explain why the pathogen is so difficult to contain and warns that outdated diagnostics and limited treatments lag behind. It was conducted by Dr. Neeraj Chauhan of the Hackensack Meridian CDI in New Jersey, Dr. Anuradha Chowdhary of the University of Delhi’s Medical Mycology Unit and Dr. Michail Lionakis, chief of the clinical mycology program at the National Institutes of Health.
Their findings stress the need to develop “novel antifungal agents with broad-spectrum activity against human fungal pathogens, to improve diagnostic tests and to develop immune- and vaccine-based adjunct modalities for the treatment of high-risk patients,” the researchers said in a statement.
GROWING ANTIBIOTIC CRISIS COULD TURN BACTERIAL INFECTIONS DEADLY, EXPERTS WARN
“In addition, future efforts should focus on raising awareness about fungal disease through developing better surveillance mechanisms, especially in resource-poor countries,” they added. “All these developments should help improve the outcomes and prognosis of patients afflicted by opportunistic fungal infections.”
Candida auris can survive on skin and hospital surfaces, allowing it to spread easily. (iStock)
First identified in 2009 from a patient’s ear sample in Japan, C. auris has since spread to dozens of countries, including the U.S., where outbreaks have forced some hospital intensive care units to shut down, according to the researchers.
The fungus poses the greatest risk to people who are already critically ill, particularly those on ventilators or with weakened immune systems. Once infected, about half of patients may die, according to some estimates.
FLU BY STATE: WHERE THIS SEASON’S HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS VARIANT IS SPREADING THE MOST
Unlike many other fungi, C. auris can survive on human skin and cling to hospital surfaces and medical equipment, allowing it to spread easily in healthcare settings.
“It is resistant to multiple antifungal drugs, and it tends to spread in hospital settings, including on equipment being used on immunocompromised and semi-immunocompromised patients, such as ventilators and catheters,” Dr. Marc Siegel, Fox News senior medical analyst and clinical professor of medicine at NYU Langone, previously told Fox News Digital.
Scientists say the unique cell wall structure of C. auris makes it harder to kill. (iStock)
It is also frequently misdiagnosed, delaying treatment and infection control measures.
“Unfortunately, symptoms such as fever, chills and aches may be ubiquitous, and it can be mistaken for other infections,” Siegel said.
In September, he said intense research was ongoing to develop new treatments.
Only four major classes of antifungal drugs are currently available, and C. auris has already shown resistance to many of them. While three new antifungal drugs have been approved or are in late-stage trials, researchers warn that drug development has struggled to keep pace with the fungus’s evolution.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE LIFESTYLE STORIES
Despite the sobering findings, there is still room for cautious optimism.
The fungus can cling to skin and hospital surfaces, aiding its spread. (iStock)
In separate research published in December, scientists at the University of Exeter in England discovered a potential weakness in C. auris while studying the fungus in a living-host model.
The team found that, during infection, the fungus activates specific genes to scavenge iron, a nutrient it needs to survive, according to their paper, published in the Nature portfolio journal Communications Biology in December.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
Because iron is essential for the pathogen, researchers believe drugs that block this process could eventually stop infections or even allow existing medications to be repurposed.
“We think our research may have revealed an Achilles’ heel in this lethal pathogen during active infection,” Dr. Hugh Gifford, a clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter and co-author of the study, said in a statement.
New research is underway to develop better treatments and diagnostics for C. auris. (iStock)
As researchers race to better understand the fungus, officials warn that strict infection control, rapid detection and continued investment in new treatments remain critical.
TEST YOURSELF WITH OUR LATEST LIFESTYLE QUIZ
Health experts emphasize that C. auris is not a threat to healthy people.
Fox News Digital has reached out to the CDI researchers and additional experts for comment.
Fox News Digital’s Angelica Stabile contributed reporting.
New flu strain emerging as a severe health threat
Fox News senior medical analyst Dr. Marc Siegel joins ‘America’s Newsroom’ to warn of a new strain of the flu that is spiking hospitalizations across the country and newfound risks of medical marijuana’s link to psychosis.
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
The New York State Department of Health reported a record surge in influenza activity, with 71,123 positive flu cases recorded statewide during the week ending December 20.
Health officials said the figure represents the highest number of flu cases ever reported in a single week since influenza became a reportable disease in New York in 2004.
State health data show the weekly total reflects a 38% increase from the previous reporting period, signaling a rapidly intensifying flu season.
There have been 189,312 reported positive flu cases so far this season, while influenza-related hospitalizations rose 63% in the most recent week.
FLU BY STATE: WHERE THIS SEASON’S HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS VARIANT IS SPREADING THE MOST
New York reported the highest weekly total of cases ever recorded since influenza became reportable in 2004. (iStock)
“We are seeing the highest number of flu cases ever recorded in a single week in New York state,” Health Commissioner Dr. James McDonald said in a press release.
There have been 189,312 reported flu cases so far this season, with influenza-related hospitalizations increasing 63% in the most recent week. (iStock)
Earlier this month, the department declared influenza prevalent statewide, a designation that requires unvaccinated health care workers to wear masks in patient care settings.
SURGE IN WHOOPING COUGH CASES IN SOUTHERN STATE PROMPTS HEALTH ALERTS
Health officials continue to emphasize that vaccination remains the most effective way to prevent severe illness and hospitalization from influenza.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE HEALTH STORIES
New Yorkers who have not yet received a seasonal flu shot are still encouraged to do so, with experts saying vaccination can offer protection even later in the season.
Health officials continue to urge New Yorkers to take preventive steps, including vaccination and staying home when sick, to limit further spread. (iStock)
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR OUR HEALTH NEWSLETTER
To help limit further spread, the department advises individuals experiencing flu-like symptoms — including fever, cough, sore throat, or body aches — to stay home. State health officials also recommend frequent handwashing, using hand sanitizer, and avoiding close contact with sick individuals.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
For those who become ill, officials say antiviral medications are available and are most effective when started within 48 hours of symptom onset.
Health officials also added that people at higher risk for complications should contact a health care provider promptly for evaluation and possible treatment.
TEST YOURSELF WITH OUR LATEST LIFESTYLE QUIZ
The department noted that flu activity typically peaks in January, meaning case counts could continue to climb in the weeks ahead.
FCS All-American WR to visit Michigan State this week
UMass Lowell seeks solutions to housing crisis through Massachusetts TechHubs Program
Game Recap: Kings 5, Wild 4 (S/O) | Minnesota Wild
Mississippi Lottery Mississippi Match 5, Cash 3 results for Jan. 3, 2026
Missouri Lottery Powerball, Pick 3 winning numbers for Jan. 3, 2026
Florida High School Football Rankings: Top 25 teams – Oct. 21
Cleary's 21 help Le Moyne down Central Connecticut State 69-64 in OT
How old is Bo Nix? What to know about Oregon quarterback ahead of 2024 NFL Draft
99th annual Pony Swim held in Virginia
Video: ‘It Didn’t Have to Happen This Way:’ U.Va. Faculty Call for Review of Police Response to Protests
Kamala Harris blasts Trump administration’s capture of Venezuela’s Maduro as ‘unlawful and unwise’
US Republicans back Trump on Venezuela amid faint MAGA dissent
Who is Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s leader after Maduro’s capture? | CNN
Trump says US will ‘run Venezuela’ after seizing President Maduro in military assault | BBC News
He can make anything out of toothpicks (1983)
-
Entertainment1 week agoHow the Grinch went from a Yuletide bit player to a Christmas A-lister
-
Connecticut1 week agoSnow Accumulation Estimates Increase For CT: Here Are The County-By-County Projections
-
World6 days agoHamas builds new terror regime in Gaza, recruiting teens amid problematic election
-
Indianapolis, IN1 week agoIndianapolis Colts playoffs: Updated elimination scenario, AFC standings, playoff picture for Week 17
-
Southeast1 week agoTwo attorneys vanish during Florida fishing trip as ‘heartbroken’ wife pleads for help finding them
-
World1 week agoSnoop Dogg, Lainey Wilson, Huntr/x and Andrea Bocelli Deliver Christmas-Themed Halftime Show for Netflix’s NFL Lions-Vikings Telecast
-
Business1 week agoGoogle is at last letting users swap out embarrassing Gmail addresses without losing their data
-
World1 week agoBest of 2025: Top five defining moments in the European Parliament