Health
Death Toll in Gaza Likely 40 Percent Higher Than Reported, Researchers Say
Deaths from bombs and other traumatic injuries during the first nine months of the war in Gaza may have been underestimated by more than 40 percent, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet.
The peer-reviewed statistical analysis, led by epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, used modeling in an effort to provide an objective third-party estimate of casualties. The United Nations has relied on the figure from the Hamas-led Ministry of Health, which it says has been largely accurate, but which Israel criticizes as inflated.
But the new analysis suggests the Hamas health ministry tally is a significant undercount. The researchers concluded that the death toll from Israel’s aerial bombardment and military ground operation in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024 was about 64,300, rather than the 37,900 reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
The estimate in the analysis corresponds to 2.9 percent of Gaza’s prewar population having been killed by traumatic injury, or one in 35 inhabitants. The analysis did not account for other war-related casualties such as deaths from malnutrition, water-borne illness or the breakdown of the health system as the conflict progressed.
The study found that 59 percent of the dead were women, children and people over the age of 65. It did not establish what share of the reported dead were combatants.
Mike Spagat, an expert on calculating casualties of war who was not involved in this research, said the new analysis convinced him that Gaza casualties were underestimated.
“This is a good piece of evidence that the real number is higher, probably substantially higher, than the Ministry of Health’s official numbers, higher than I had been thinking over the last few months,” said Dr. Spagat, who is a professor at Royal Holloway College at the University of London.
But the presentation of precise figures, such as a 41 percent underreported mortality, is less useful, he said, since the analysis actually shows the real total could be less than, or substantially more. “Quantitatively, it’s a lot more uncertain than I think comes out in the paper,” Dr. Spagat said.
The researchers said their estimate of 64,260 deaths from traumatic injury has a “confidence interval” between 55,298 and 78,525, which means the actual number of casualties is likely in that range.
If the estimated level of underreporting of deaths through June 2024 is extrapolated out to October 2024, the total Gazan casualty figure in the first year of the war would exceed 70,000.
“There is an importance to war injury deaths, because it speaks to the question of whether the campaign is proportional, whether it is, in fact, the case that sufficient provisions are made to to avoid civilian casualties,” said Francesco Checchi, an epidemiologist with an expertise in conflict and humanitarian crises and a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who was an author on the study. “I do think memorializing is important. There is inherent value in just trying to come up with the right number.”
The analysis uses a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis, which has been used to estimate casualties in other conflicts, including civil wars in Colombia and Sudan.
For Gaza, the researchers drew on three lists: The first is a register maintained by the Palestinian Ministry of Health, which mainly comprises the dead in hospital morgues and estimates of the number of unrecovered people buried in rubble. The second is deaths reported by family or community members through an online survey form the ministry established on Jan. 1, 2024, when the prewar death registration system had broken down. It asked Palestinians inside and outside Gaza to provide names, ages, national ID number and location of death for casualties. The third source was obituaries of people who died from injuries that were published on social media, which may not include all of the same biographical details and which the researchers compiled by hand.
The researchers analyzed these sources to look for individuals who appear on multiple lists of those killed. A high level of overlap would have suggested that few deaths were uncounted; the low amount they found suggested the opposite. The researchers used models to calculate the probability of each individual appearing on any of the three lists.
“Models enable us to actually estimate the number of people who have not been listed at all,” Dr. Checchi said. That, combined with the listed number, gave the analysts their total.
Patrick Ball, director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, and a statistician who has conducted similar estimates of violent deaths in conflicts in other regions, said the study was strong and well reasoned. But he cautioned that the authors may have underestimated the amount of uncertainty caused by the ongoing conflict.
The authors used different variations of mathematical models in their calculations, but Dr. Ball said that rather than presenting a single figure — 64,260 deaths — as the estimate, it may have been more appropriate to present the number of deaths as a range from 47,457 to 88,332 deaths, a span that encompasses all of the estimates produced by modeling the overlap among the three lists.
“It’s really hard to do this kind of thing in the middle of a conflict,” Dr. Ball said. “It takes time, and it takes access. I think you could say the range is larger, and that would be plausible.”
While Gaza had a strong death registration process before the war, it now has only limited function after the destruction of much of the health system. Deaths are uncounted when whole families are killed simultaneously, leaving no one to report, or when an unknown number of people die in the collapse of a large building; Gazans are increasingly buried near their homes without passing through a morgue, Dr. Checchi said.
The authors of the study acknowledged that some of those assumed dead may in fact be missing, most likely taken as prisoners in Israel.
Roni Caryn Rabin and Lauren Leatherby contributed reporting.
Health
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Health
Relationship coach blames Oprah for pushing family estrangement ‘for decades’
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Oprah Winfrey is shining a light on family estrangement, which she calls “one of the fastest-growing cultural shifts of our time” — but one expert says the media mogul helped fuel that very culture.
“A Cornell University study now shows that almost one-third of Americans are actively estranged from a family member,” Winfrey said on a recent episode of “The Oprah Podcast,” referring to adult children going “no-contact” with parents, siblings or entire family systems.
Winfrey said the trend is a “silent epidemic” that can be especially relevant during the holidays.
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But family and relationship coach Tania Khazaal, who focuses on fighting “cutoff culture,” took to social media to criticize Winfrey for acting as if the estrangement crisis appeared “out of thin air.”
“Now Oprah is shocked by the aftermath of estrangement, after being one of the biggest voices pushing it for decades,” Canada-based Khazaal said in an Instagram video, which drew more than 27,000 likes and 3,000 comments.
Oprah Winfrey recently discussed what she called a “silent epidemic” of family estrangement on her podcast. (Theo Wargo/Getty Images)
Khazaal claimed that Winfrey’s messaging started in the 1990s and has contributed to a cultural shift where walking away became the first resort, not the last.
According to the relationship coach, millennials, some of whom grew up watching Oprah, are the leading demographic cutting off family members — and even if it wasn’t intentional, “the effect has absolutely been harmful,” Khazaal told Fox News Digital.
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The coach, who has her own history with estrangement, questioned why Winfrey is now treating the issue as a surprising crisis.
“Now she hosts a discussion with estranged parents and estranged kids, speaking on estrangement like it’s some hidden, sudden, heartbreaking epidemic that she had no hand in,” she said in her video.
Nearly one-third of Americans are estranged from a family member, research shows. (iStock)
Khazaal said she believes discussions about estrangement are necessary, but insists that people shouldn’t “rewrite history.”
“Estrangement isn’t entertainment or a trending conversation piece,” she added. “It’s real families, real grief, parents dying without hearing their child’s voice.”
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Winfrey reportedly responded in the comments, writing, “Happy to have a conversation about it — but not on a reel. Will have my producer contact you if you’re interested.” But the comment was later deleted due to the backlash it received, Khazaal told Fox News Digital.
“I would still be open to that discussion,” Khazaal said. “The first thing I’d want her to understand is simple: Setting aside cases of abuse or danger, the family unit is the most sacred structure we have.”
Experts emphasize that estrangement should be a last resort. (iStock)
“When children lose their sense of belonging at home, they search for it in the outside world,” she added. “That’s contributing to the emotional fragility we’re seeing today.”
Her critique ignited a debate online, with some social media users saying Khazaal is voicing a long-overdue concern.
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“The first time I heard, ‘You can love them from a distance’ was from Oprah … in the ’90s,” one woman said.
“My son estranged himself from us for five years,” one mother commented. “The pain, hurt and damage never goes away.”
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Others, however, argued that Winfrey’s podcast episode was empathetic and that estrangement shouldn’t be oversimplified.
Mental health experts say the conversation around estrangement is more complex than any single celebrity influence, and reflects broader cultural shifts.
Experts say today’s focus on boundaries and emotional well-being has reshaped family expectations. (iStock)
In the episode with Winfrey, Joshua Coleman, a California-based psychologist, said, “The old days of ‘honor thy mother and thy father,’ ‘respect thy elders’ and ‘family is forever’ has given way to much more of an emphasis on personal happiness, personal growth, my identity, my political beliefs, my mental health.”
Coleman noted that therapists sometimes become “detachment brokers” by unintentionally green-lighting estrangement.
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Jillian Amodio, a licensed master’s social worker at the Maryland-based Waypoint Wellness Center, told Fox News Digital that while public figures like Winfrey help normalize these conversations, estrangement might just be a more openly discussed topic now.
“Estrangement used to be handled privately and quietly,” she said.
Winfrey’s take on family estrangement is prompting a broader discussion amid the holiday season. (iStock)
But even strained relationships can be fixed with the right support, experts say.
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Susan Foosness, a North Carolina-based clinical director of patient programs at Rula Health, said families can strengthen their relationships by working with a mental health professional to improve communication, learn healthier conflict-resolution skills, and build trust and empathy through quality time together.
“No family is perfect,” Foosness told Fox News Digital.
Khazaal agreed, saying, “Parents need to learn how to listen without slipping into justification, and children need help speaking about their pain without defaulting to blame or avoidance.”
Fox News Digital reached out to Winfrey for comment.
Health
Major measles outbreak leads to hundreds quarantined in US county, officials say
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South Carolina is facing a major measles outbreak, resulting in the quarantine of hundreds of residents.
The South Carolina Department of Health (DPH) reported in a media briefing on Wednesday that the current number of measles cases has reached 111 as part of the current Spartanburg County outbreak.
DPH first reported a measles outbreak in the Upstate region on Oct. 2.
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The health department confirmed that 254 people are currently in quarantine and 16 are in isolation to prevent further spread.
The health department confirmed that 254 people are currently in quarantine in the upstate region. (Getty Images)
“This significant jump in cases is unfortunate,” a DPH spokesperson commented on the outbreak.
Public exposure was identified at Inman Intermediate School, with 43 of their students in quarantine.
“This significant jump in cases is unfortunate.”
Eight other intermediate and middle schools in the area are also reportedly undergoing quarantine. The DPH said multiple students have had to quarantine twice due to repeat exposure.
“Vaccination continues to be the best way to prevent the disruption that measles is causing to people’s education, to employment and other factors in people’s lives and our communities,” the spokesperson said.
“This significant jump in cases is unfortunate,” a DPH spokesperson commented on the current outbreak. (iStock)
Out of the 111 confirmed cases, 105 were unvaccinated. Receiving a vaccination within 72 hours has been shown to prevent measles infection, the DPH spokesperson noted.
Some cases are related to travel exposure, while others are from an unknown source, suggesting that measles is circulating in the community, the DPH noted.
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Connecticut has also reported its first measles case in four years, according to the Connecticut Department of Public Health.
The department confirmed on Thursday that an unvaccinated child in Fairfield County, under the age of 10, was diagnosed with measles after recently traveling internationally.
“Vaccination continues to be the best way to prevent the disruption that measles is causing,” a DPH spokesperson said. (iStock)
The child began to show symptoms several days later, including a runny nose, cough, congestion, fever and a rash starting at the head and spreading to the rest of the body.
The Connecticut DPH noted that measles is “highly contagious” and can spread quickly through the air via coughing or sneezing. The CDC has estimated that nine out of 10 unvaccinated individuals who encounter an infected person will develop the measles virus.
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According to the International Vaccine Access Center, more than 1,800 cases of measles have been reported in 2025, which is the most since the U.S. declared the virus eliminated in 2000. It is also the most cases recorded in three decades.
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“The single best way to protect your children and yourself from measles is to be vaccinated,” DPH Commissioner Manisha Juthani, M.D., wrote in a statement. “One dose of measles vaccine is about 93% effective, while two doses are about 97% effective.”
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