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Death Toll in Gaza Likely 40 Percent Higher Than Reported, Researchers Say

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Death Toll in Gaza Likely 40 Percent Higher Than Reported, Researchers Say

Deaths from bombs and other traumatic injuries during the first nine months of the war in Gaza may have been underestimated by more than 40 percent, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet.

The peer-reviewed statistical analysis, led by epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, used modeling in an effort to provide an objective third-party estimate of casualties. The United Nations has relied on the figure from the Hamas-led Ministry of Health, which it says has been largely accurate, but which Israel criticizes as inflated.

But the new analysis suggests the Hamas health ministry tally is a significant undercount. The researchers concluded that the death toll from Israel’s aerial bombardment and military ground operation in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024 was about 64,300, rather than the 37,900 reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

The estimate in the analysis corresponds to 2.9 percent of Gaza’s prewar population having been killed by traumatic injury, or one in 35 inhabitants. The analysis did not account for other war-related casualties such as deaths from malnutrition, water-borne illness or the breakdown of the health system as the conflict progressed.

The study found that 59 percent of the dead were women, children and people over the age of 65. It did not establish what share of the reported dead were combatants.

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Mike Spagat, an expert on calculating casualties of war who was not involved in this research, said the new analysis convinced him that Gaza casualties were underestimated.

“This is a good piece of evidence that the real number is higher, probably substantially higher, than the Ministry of Health’s official numbers, higher than I had been thinking over the last few months,” said Dr. Spagat, who is a professor at Royal Holloway College at the University of London.

But the presentation of precise figures, such as a 41 percent underreported mortality, is less useful, he said, since the analysis actually shows the real total could be less than, or substantially more. “Quantitatively, it’s a lot more uncertain than I think comes out in the paper,” Dr. Spagat said.

The researchers said their estimate of 64,260 deaths from traumatic injury has a “confidence interval” between 55,298 and 78,525, which means the actual number of casualties is likely in that range.

If the estimated level of underreporting of deaths through June 2024 is extrapolated out to October 2024, the total Gazan casualty figure in the first year of the war would exceed 70,000.

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“There is an importance to war injury deaths, because it speaks to the question of whether the campaign is proportional, whether it is, in fact, the case that sufficient provisions are made to to avoid civilian casualties,” said Francesco Checchi, an epidemiologist with an expertise in conflict and humanitarian crises and a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who was an author on the study. “I do think memorializing is important. There is inherent value in just trying to come up with the right number.”

The analysis uses a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis, which has been used to estimate casualties in other conflicts, including civil wars in Colombia and Sudan.

For Gaza, the researchers drew on three lists: The first is a register maintained by the Palestinian Ministry of Health, which mainly comprises the dead in hospital morgues and estimates of the number of unrecovered people buried in rubble. The second is deaths reported by family or community members through an online survey form the ministry established on Jan. 1, 2024, when the prewar death registration system had broken down. It asked Palestinians inside and outside Gaza to provide names, ages, national ID number and location of death for casualties. The third source was obituaries of people who died from injuries that were published on social media, which may not include all of the same biographical details and which the researchers compiled by hand.

The researchers analyzed these sources to look for individuals who appear on multiple lists of those killed. A high level of overlap would have suggested that few deaths were uncounted; the low amount they found suggested the opposite. The researchers used models to calculate the probability of each individual appearing on any of the three lists.

“Models enable us to actually estimate the number of people who have not been listed at all,” Dr. Checchi said. That, combined with the listed number, gave the analysts their total.

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Patrick Ball, director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, and a statistician who has conducted similar estimates of violent deaths in conflicts in other regions, said the study was strong and well reasoned. But he cautioned that the authors may have underestimated the amount of uncertainty caused by the ongoing conflict.

The authors used different variations of mathematical models in their calculations, but Dr. Ball said that rather than presenting a single figure — 64,260 deaths — as the estimate, it may have been more appropriate to present the number of deaths as a range from 47,457 to 88,332 deaths, a span that encompasses all of the estimates produced by modeling the overlap among the three lists.

“It’s really hard to do this kind of thing in the middle of a conflict,” Dr. Ball said. “It takes time, and it takes access. I think you could say the range is larger, and that would be plausible.”

While Gaza had a strong death registration process before the war, it now has only limited function after the destruction of much of the health system. Deaths are uncounted when whole families are killed simultaneously, leaving no one to report, or when an unknown number of people die in the collapse of a large building; Gazans are increasingly buried near their homes without passing through a morgue, Dr. Checchi said.

The authors of the study acknowledged that some of those assumed dead may in fact be missing, most likely taken as prisoners in Israel.

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Roni Caryn Rabin and Lauren Leatherby contributed reporting.

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Brain Health Challenge: Workouts to Strengthen Your Brain

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Brain Health Challenge: Workouts to Strengthen Your Brain

Today, you’re going to do perhaps the single best thing for your brain.

When I asked neurologists about their top behaviors for brain health, they all stressed the importance of physical activity.

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“Exercise is top, No. 1, when we’re thinking about the biggest bang for your buck,” said Dr. Gregg Day, a neurologist at the Mayo Clinic.

Numerous studies have shown that people who exercise regularly tend to perform better on attention, memory and executive functioning tests. There can be a small cognitive boost immediately after a workout, and the effects are sustained if people exercise consistently. And while staying active can’t guarantee you won’t develop dementia, over the long term, it is associated with a lower risk of it.

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Researchers think that moving your muscles benefits your brain in part because of special signaling molecules called exerkines. During and after a workout, your muscles, fat and other organs release these molecules into the bloodstream, some of which make their way up to the brain. There, those exerkines go to work, helping to facilitate the growth of new connections between neurons, the repair of brain cells and, possibly, the birth of new neurons.

Exercise also appears to improve blood flow in the brain. That ramps up the delivery of good things to brain cells, like oxygen, glucose and those amazing exerkines. And it helps remove more bad things, namely toxic proteins, like amyloid, that can build up and damage brain cells, increasing the risk for Alzheimer’s.

All of the changes brought on by exercise are “essentially allowing your brain to age more slowly than if you’re physically inactive,” said Kirk Erickson, the chair of neuroscience at the AdventHealth Research Institute.

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The benefits are particularly pronounced in the hippocampus, a region critical for learning and memory. In older adults, the hippocampus shrinks 1 to 2 percent a year, and it is one of the main areas affected by Alzheimer’s. Researchers think physical activity helps to offset some of that loss.

The best exercise you can do for your brain is the one you’ll do consistently, so find something that you enjoy and that fits easily into your life.

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Walking is one option; two neurologists I spoke to said they got their exercise in by walking at least part of the way to their offices. Recent research suggests that just a few thousand steps a day can reduce the risk of dementia. It’s important to get your heart rate up, though, so “walk as though you’re trying to get somewhere on time,” said Dr. Linda Selwa, a clinical professor of neurology at the University of Michigan Medical School.

Or you could try swimming, cycling, Pilates, weight lifting, yoga, pickleball, dancing, gardening — any type of physical exertion can be beneficial.

If the thought of working out feels like a drag, try pairing it with something else you enjoy doing, like listening to an audiobook. This is a trick that Katherine Milkman, a professor who studies habits at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, calls “temptation bundling.”

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For Day 3, we’re asking you to spend at least 20 minutes exercising for your brain. Go for a walk with your accountability partner if they’re nearby. (If not, call them and do a walk-and-talk.) Or let us find you a new workout to try, using the tool below. As usual, we can all meet in the comments to catch up and check in.

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Little-known prescription pill is helping Americans drink less alcohol

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Little-known prescription pill is helping Americans drink less alcohol

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Recent studies continue to support a decades-old drug as an alternative means of reducing alcohol consumption.

The prescription opioid pill, called naltrexone, was first approved by the FDA to treat opioid dependence in 1984. A decade later, it was approved for alcohol use disorder.

In addition to the daily pill version, naltrexone is also available as a monthly injectable therapy, which was approved for alcohol use disorder in 2006 and opioid use disorder in 2010.

POPULAR WEIGHT-LOSS DRUGS COULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF YOUR ALCOHOL BUZZ, STUDY FINDS

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How it works

Naltrexone works by blocking opioid receptors in the brain. For those dependent on opioids, it blocks the “euphoric” effects of the drugs and also curbs cravings for alcohol, according to experts.

The prescription opioid pill, called naltrexone, was first approved by the FDA to treat opioid dependence in 1984. A decade later, it was approved for alcohol use disorder. (iStock)

“Naltrexone can be used to assist with reducing alcohol cravings and reduce the pleasurable effects from alcohol ingestion, which can help those prone to binge-drinking to consume less volume,” Dr. David Campbell, clinical director and program director at Recover Together, a behavioral health and addiction treatment facility in Bend, Oregon, told Fox News Digital.

HIGHER STROKE RISK LINKED TO CONSUMING CERTAIN AMOUNT OF ALCOHOL, STUDY FINDS

The medication is useful for people who experience strong cravings, often drink to excess once they start, or drink primarily due to reward or relief as opposed to habit, according to Campbell.

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“Naltrexone affects the rewards center of the brain, which blocks the rewarding effects of alcohol.”

Jessica Steinman, chief clinical officer at No Matter What Recovery in Los Angeles, calls naltrexone “an incredibly helpful and life-saving tool” for people who struggle with alcohol use disorder. 

“Currently, in our society, many people are looking to get medication-assisted help from overconsumption of certain things or behaviors, including food, cigarettes and now alcohol,” she told Fox News Digital.

FIRST-OF-ITS-KIND FENTANYL VACCINE TARGETS OVERDOSES BEFORE THEY START

“Naltrexone affects the rewards center of the brain, which blocks the rewarding effects of alcohol and cravings to be minimized. It can assist in telling the brain that alcohol isn’t wanted.”

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The drug can also help if someone has a “healthy” relationship with alcohol and is looking to cut back on their drinking behaviors, Steinman added. 

“We do not suggest moderation in any way for people struggling with alcohol use disorder or any type of dependence to alcohol or other substances,” she noted. “We do not believe drinking ‘less’ is a solution.”

Side effects

Common side effects of naltrexone can include nausea and vomiting, headache, sleep disturbances, dizziness, fatigue, anxiety, loss of appetite, and joint or muscle pain, according to the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA).

These effects are generally mild and may improve as the body adjusts to the medication.

The medication is useful for people who experience strong cravings, often drink to excess once they start, or drink primarily due to reward or relief as opposed to habit. (iStock)

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In rare cases, patients may experience more severe effects, such as liver issues, allergic reactions, trouble breathing and mental health effects.

“The most important thing when taking naltrexone for alcohol use is to ensure that there is no concurrent use of opioids, as taking naltrexone when using opioids can induce precipitated withdrawal, a very uncomfortable event,” Campbell cautioned.

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More than 50% of U.S. adults drink alcohol, about 17% are classified as binge-drinkers and about 6% drink heavily, according to CDC data.

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Each year, around 178,000 deaths in the country are linked to excessive alcohol use.

“Heavy alcohol consumption and binge-drinking can lead to many health problems and make chronic health conditions worse, so reducing alcohol intake can really improve health,” Donita Robinson, Ph.D., an associate professor of psychiatry at the UNC School of Medicine in North Carolina, told Fox News Digital.

More than 50% of U.S. adults drink alcohol, about 17% are classified as binge-drinkers and about 6% drink heavily. (iStock)

“Naltrexone helps many people reduce their drinking – it’s an effective medication to reduce alcohol craving and heavy drinking, and it works best in combination with counseling or other therapy.”

Robinson reiterated that people who are on opioid medications, including some painkillers, shouldn’t take naltrexone, as it can block their effectiveness and cause opioid withdrawal.

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Naltrexone is available with a prescription from a licensed healthcare provider, such as a primary care doctor, addiction medicine specialist or psychiatrist.

Health officials warn against purchasing the drug online or without a prescription, as it may be counterfeit and unsafe.

TEST YOURSELF WITH OUR LATEST LIFESTYLE QUIZ

Those interested in exploring whether naltrexone is an option for them should see a doctor, who can assess the safety of the drug based on the patient’s medical status and history.

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They should also “make sure they have their goals and intentions in line before using a medication like this,” according to Steinman.

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Brain Health Challenge: Try the MIND Diet

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Brain Health Challenge: Try the MIND Diet

Welcome to Day 2 of the Brain Health Challenge. Today, we’re talking about food.

Your brain is an energy hog. Despite comprising about 2 percent of the average person’s body mass, it consumes roughly 20 percent of the body’s energy. In other words, what you use to fuel yourself matters for brain health.

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So what foods are best for your brain?

In a nine-year study of nearly 1,000 older adults, researchers at Rush University in Chicago found that people who ate more of nine particular types of food — berries, leafy greens, other vegetables, whole grains, beans, nuts, fish, poultry and olive oil — and who ate less red meat, butter and margarine, cheese, sweet treats and fried food had slower cognitive decline.

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Based on these findings, the researchers developed the MIND diet.

Large studies encompassing thousands of people have since shown that following the MIND diet corresponds with better cognitive functioning, a lower risk of dementia and slower disease progression in people with Alzheimer’s. People benefit from the diet regardless of whether they start it in midlife or late life.

Experts think the foods included in the MIND diet are especially good for the brain because they contain certain macro and micronutrients.

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Berries and leafy greens, for example, are rich in polyphenols and other antioxidants, said Jennifer Ventrelle, a dietitian at Rush and a co-author of “The Official Mind Diet.” Many of these compounds can cross the blood-brain barrier and help to fight inflammation and oxidative stress, both of which can damage cells and are linked to dementia.

Nuts and fatty fishes, like salmon and sardines, contain omega-3 fatty acids, which are important for building the insulating sheaths that surround the nerve fibers that carry information from one brain cell to another.

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Whole grains and beans both contain a hefty dose of fiber, which feeds the good microbes in the gut. Those microbes produce byproducts called short-chain fatty acids that experts think can influence brain health via the gut-brain axis.

You don’t have to revamp your whole diet to get these nutrients. Instead, think about “MIND-ifying” whatever you already tend to eat, said Dr. Joel Salinas, a neurologist at NYU Langone Health and the founder and chief medical officer of the telehealth platform Isaac Health. For instance, add a handful of nuts or berries to your breakfast.

Today’s activity will help you MIND-ify your own meals. Share your choices with your accountability partner and in the comments, and I’ll discuss the ways I’m adjusting my diet, too. For added inspiration, check out these MIND-approved recipes from New York Times Cooking.

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