Investors are increasingly confident the US economy will achieve a “soft landing,” a scenario in which higher interest rates lead to lower inflation without a major hit to economic growth.
On the surface, it appears all signs point to that outcome. Inflation has eased. The economy is still expanding. Consumer confidence has risen. Retail sales are healthy. Corporate profits remain strong. And stocks continue to hover at record highs, with the Federal Reserve on tap to cut interest rates as soon as its next meeting on Sept. 18.
But one strategist warned on Yahoo Finance’s “Stocks in Translation” podcast that there are cracks under the surface.
“We’re skating on ice that’s a bit thinner than a lot of people presume,” said Michael Darda, chief economist and macro strategist at Roth Capital Partners.
Darda pointed to a rising unemployment rate and elevated earnings expectations, both of which contributed to the stock market routs seen at the start of August and September.
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“It’s not unprecedented to have a slowdown period that looks like a soft landing, and then a recession ends up taking shape,” he said. “That’s sort of unexpected now because many have been lulled into this idea that the soft landing is going to be a permanent state of affairs for the business cycle. Equity market valuations reflected that coming into the summer.”
“But there’s been some cracks in the business cycle,” he cautioned, noting expectations for the economy, corporates, and the stock market have remained at “super high” levels.
To that point, the S&P 500 shed 2% on Tuesday, dragged down by the tech sector after Nvidia (NVDA) earnings didn’t deliver enough of a beat to satiate investors’ appetites. Stocks seesawed in the subsequent days as markets struggled to find their footing following the sell-off.
“What’s unfolding now actually makes a lot of sense to me,” Darda said of the pullback. “We’re seeing companies that had been soaring off of repeated beats on either revenues or earnings not do so well in this most recent period.”
The recent drawdowns point to how the current market — one in which investors consistently chase hot stocks and hot areas like artificial intelligence — can be a “dangerous” game, according to Darda.
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“What that tells me is that the expectations have just gone up so much. It’s impossible to beat expectations indefinitely. Eventually they’ll catch up,” he said. “We’re in a bit of a frenzy here. And if things start to go wrong, whether it’s the earnings not living up to expectations or the business cycle faltering, that’s when you see stock markets roll over in potentially a material fashion.”
‘Choppy waters’
But it hasn’t just been earnings. The jobs market is also telling a particular story.
Last month, the July jobs report spooked markets after unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, its highest level in nearly three years. The move higher also triggered a closely watched recession indicator known as the Sahm Rule.
The rule, which has accurately predicted recessions 100% of the time since the early 1970s, measures the three-month average of the national unemployment rate against the previous 12-month low. It’s triggered when unemployment rises 0.5% from that level.
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Cracks in the markets and the US economy are beginning to show, according to one strategist. (Getty Images) (caitlin_w via Getty Images)
Traders instantly panicked that the economy was slowing more than anticipated. But then the debate ensued: Why was unemployment suddenly seeing an uptick?
Economists and strategists began to lay out the possible scenarios, including a theory that above-trend immigration is driving up labor force participation rates, therefore pressuring unemployment as more workers enter the jobs market. This eased investor fears as stocks rebounded to finish August with wins across all three major indexes.
But Darda said the rise in unemployment is still “a bit concerning.” And he’s not completely sold on recent bullish commentary that higher unemployment doesn’t really matter as long as the economy keeps growing.
“4.3% is still an incredibly low unemployment rate level that looks quite good in the historical context,” he explained. “The problem, if there’s a problem, is that we’re up to 4.3% from a cyclical trough of 3.4%.”
“Those kinds of movements and the level tell us that the economy, if it’s still growing, is growing below trend or below the growth rate of potential,” he said. “There’s an exceptionally fine line between that and an actual recession.”
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Investors will receive another update on unemployment Friday with the August jobs report on deck. Darda said that report could likely lead to even more market volatility in the weeks and months ahead.
“I do think we’re probably in an environment now where volatility is going to stay elevated,” he surmised. “The risk of a more material pullback and/or correction is quite high.”
Ultimately, his view is one of caution: “With what we saw for the last two years with this market backdrop, from these valuation levels, and based on where I think we are in the business cycle, I think we’re going to be in choppy waters for a little bit.”
Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at alexandra.canal@yahoofinance.com.
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The up-and-coming fintech scored a pair of fourth-quarter beats.
Diversified fintech Chime Financial(CHYM +12.88%) was playing a satisfying tune to investors on Thursday. The company’s stock flew almost 14% higher that trading session, thanks mostly to a fourth quarter that featured notably higher-than-expected revenue guidance.
Sweet music
Chime published its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results just after market close on Wednesday. For the former period, the company’s revenue was $596 million, bettering the same quarter of 2024 by 25%. The company’s strongest revenue stream, payments, rose 17% to $396 million. Its take from platform-related activity rose more precipitously, advancing 47% to $200 million.
Image source: Getty Images.
Meanwhile, Chime’s net loss under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) more than doubled. It was $45 million, or $0.12 per share, compared with a fourth-quarter 2024 deficit of $19.6 million.
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On average, analysts tracking the stock were modeling revenue below $578 million and a deeper bottom-line loss of $0.20 per share.
In its earnings release, Chime pointed to the take-up of its Chime Card as a particular catalyst for growth. Regarding the product, the company said, “Among new member cohorts, over half are adopting Chime Card, and those members are putting over 70% of their Chime spend on the product, which earns materially higher take rates compared to debit.”
Today’s Change
(12.88%) $2.72
Current Price
$23.83
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Key Data Points
Market Cap
$7.9B
Day’s Range
$22.30 – $24.63
52wk Range
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$16.17 – $44.94
Volume
562K
Avg Vol
3.3M
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Gross Margin
86.34%
Double-digit growth expected
Chime management proffered revenue and non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) guidance for full-year 2026. The company expects to post a top line of $627 million to $637 million, which would represent at least 21% growth over the 2024 result. Adjusted EBITDA should be $380 million to $400 million. No net income forecasts were provided in the earnings release.
It isn’t easy to find a niche in the financial industry, which is crowded with companies offering every imaginable type of service to clients. Yet Chime seems to be achieving that, as the Chime Card is clearly a hit among the company’s target demographic of clientele underserved by mainstream banks. This growth stock is definitely worth considering as a buy.
ROCHESTER, N.Y. — Student athletes are now earning real money thanks to name, image, likeness deals — but with that opportunity comes the need for financial preparation.
Noah Collins Howard and Dayshawn Preston are two high school juniors with Division I offers on the table. Both are chasing their dreams on the field, and both are navigating something brand new off of it — their finances.
“When it comes to NIL, some people just want the money, and they just spend it immediately. Well, you’ve got to know how to take care of your money. And again, you need to know how to grow it because you don’t want to just spend it,” said Collins Howard.
What You Need To Know
High school athletes with Division I prospects are learning to manage NIL money before they even reach college
Glory2Glory Sports Agency and Advantage Federal Credit Union have partnered to give young athletes access to financial literacy tools and credit-building resources
Financial experts warn that starting money habits early is key to long-term stability for student athletes entering the NIL era
Preston said the experience has already been eye-opening.
“It’s very important. Especially my first time having my own card and bank account — so that’s super exciting,” Preston said.
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For many young athletes, the money comes before the knowledge. That’s where Glory2Glory Sports Agency in Rochester comes in — helping athletes prepare for life outside of sports.
“College sports is now pro sports. These kids are going from one extreme to the other financially, and it’s important for them to have the tools necessary to navigate that massive shift,” said Antoine Hyman, CEO of Glory2Glory Sports Agency.
Through their Students for Change program, athletes get access to student checking accounts, financial literacy courses and credit-building tools — all through a partnership with Advantage Federal Credit Union.
“It’s never too early to start. We have youth accounts, student checking accounts — they were all designed specifically for students and the youth,” said Diane Miller, VP of marketing and PR at Advantage Federal Credit Union.
The goal goes beyond what’s in their pocket today. It’s about building habits that will protect them for life.
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“If you don’t start young, you’re always catching up. The younger you start them, the better off they’re going to be on that financial path,” added Nihada Donohew, executive vice president of Advantage Federal Credit Union.
For these athletes, having the right support system makes all the difference.
“It’s really great to have a support system around you. Help you get local deals with the local shops,” Preston added.
Collins-Howard said the program has given him a broader perspective beyond just the game.
“It gives me a better understanding of how to take care of myself and prepare myself for the future of giving back to the community,” Collins-Howard said.
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“These high school kids need someone to legitimately advocate their skills, their character and help them pick the right space. Everything has changed now,” Hyman added.
NIL opened the door. Programs like this one make sure these athletes walk through it — with a plan.
With the introduction of the Employee Ownership Development Act , Illinois is poised to create the largest dedicated public investment vehicle for employee ownership in the country.
State Rep. Will Guzzardi’s bill, HB4955, would authorize the Illinois Treasury to deploy a portion of the state’s non-pension investment portfolio into employee ownership-focused investment funds.
That would represent a substantial investment of institutional capital in building wealth for Illinois workers and seed a capital market for employee ownership in the process. And because the fund is carved out of the state investment pool, it doesn’t require a single dollar of appropriations from the legislature.
Silver tsunami
The timing of the Employee Ownership Development Fund could not be more urgent. More than half of Illinois business owners are over 55 years old and are set to retire in the coming decade. When these owners sell their firms, financial buyers and competitors are often the default exit – if owners don’t simply close the business for lack of a buyer.
Each of these traditional paths risks consolidation, job loss and offshoring of investment and production. These are major disruptions to the communities that have long sustained these businesses. Without a concerted strategy, business succession is an economic development risk hiding in plain sight, and one that threatens local employment, supply chain resilience, and the tax base of communities across the country.
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Employee ownership offers another path. Decades of empirical research show that employee-owned firms grow faster, weather economic downturns better (with fewer layoffs and lower rates of closure), and provide better pay and retirement benefits.
The average employee owner with an employee stock ownership plan, or ESOP, has nearly 2.5 times the retirement wealth of non-ESOP participants. That comes at no cost to the employee and is generally in addition to a diversified 401(k) retirement account.
Because businesses are selling to local employees, employee ownership transitions keep businesses rooted in their communities. This approach can support a place-based retention strategy for state economic policymakers.
Capital gap
Despite the remarkable benefits of employee ownership and bipartisan support from policymakers, a lack of private capital has impeded the growth of employee ownership: In the past decade, new ESOP formation has averaged just 269 firms per year.
Most ESOP transactions ask the seller to be the bank, relying heavily on sellers to finance a significant portion of the sale themselves, often waiting five to 10 years to fully realize their proceeds. Compared to financial and strategic buyers who offer sellers their liquidity upfront, employee ownership sales are structurally uncompetitive in the M&A market.
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A small but growing ecosystem of specialized fund managers has begun to fill this gap. They deploy subordinated debt and equity-like capital to provide sellers the liquidity they need, while supporting newly employee-owned businesses with expertise and growth capital (see for example, “Apis & Heritage helps thousands of B and B Maintenance workers become owners”).
This approach is a recipe for scale, but the market remains nascent and undercapitalized relative to the generational pipeline of businesses approaching succession. To mature, the market needs anchor institutional investors willing to commit capital at scale.
State treasurers and other public investment officers could be those institutional investors. Collectively managing trillions of dollars in state assets, they have the portfolio scale, time horizons and fiduciary obligation to earn market returns while advancing state economic development.
Illinois’ blueprint
Just as federal credit programs helped catalyze the home mortgage and venture capital industries in the 20th century, state treasurers and comptrollers now have the opportunity to help build the employee ownership capital market in the 21st.
Illinois shows us how. The state’s Employee Ownership Development Act is modeled on proven investment strategies previously authorized by the legislature and pioneered by State Treasurer Michael Frerichs. The Illinois Growth and Innovation Fund and the FIRST Fund each ring-fence 5% of the state investment portfolio for investments in private markets and infrastructure, respectively, deployed through professional fund managers. Both have generated competitive returns while catalyzing billions of dollars in private co-investment in Illinois.
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The Employee Ownership Development Fund would apply that same architecture to employee ownership. The Treasurer would invest indirectly by capitalizing private investment funds deploying a range of credit and equity. The funds, in turn, would invest a multiple of the state’s commitment in employee ownership transactions.
The employee ownership field has matured to a point that is ready for institutional capital. The evidence base is robust. The fund management ecosystem is growing. And the business succession pipeline is larger than it will be for generations.
Yet the field still lacks the publicly enabled financing interventions that have historically built new markets in this country. State treasurers, city comptrollers and other public investment officers have the tools and resources at their disposal to provide that catalytic, market-rate investment to enable the employee ownership market to scale.
Julien Rosenbloom is a senior associate at the Lafayette Square Institute.
Guest posts on ImpactAlpha represent the opinions of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of ImpactAlpha.
