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The US economy may be on 'thinner' ice than investors think

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The US economy may be on 'thinner' ice than investors think

Investors are increasingly confident the US economy will achieve a “soft landing,” a scenario in which higher interest rates lead to lower inflation without a major hit to economic growth.

On the surface, it appears all signs point to that outcome. Inflation has eased. The economy is still expanding. Consumer confidence has risen. Retail sales are healthy. Corporate profits remain strong. And stocks continue to hover at record highs, with the Federal Reserve on tap to cut interest rates as soon as its next meeting on Sept. 18.

But one strategist warned on Yahoo Finance’s “Stocks in Translation” podcast that there are cracks under the surface.

“We’re skating on ice that’s a bit thinner than a lot of people presume,” said Michael Darda, chief economist and macro strategist at Roth Capital Partners.

Darda pointed to a rising unemployment rate and elevated earnings expectations, both of which contributed to the stock market routs seen at the start of August and September.

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“It’s not unprecedented to have a slowdown period that looks like a soft landing, and then a recession ends up taking shape,” he said. “That’s sort of unexpected now because many have been lulled into this idea that the soft landing is going to be a permanent state of affairs for the business cycle. Equity market valuations reflected that coming into the summer.”

“But there’s been some cracks in the business cycle,” he cautioned, noting expectations for the economy, corporates, and the stock market have remained at “super high” levels.

To that point, the S&P 500 shed 2% on Tuesday, dragged down by the tech sector after Nvidia (NVDA) earnings didn’t deliver enough of a beat to satiate investors’ appetites. Stocks seesawed in the subsequent days as markets struggled to find their footing following the sell-off.

“What’s unfolding now actually makes a lot of sense to me,” Darda said of the pullback. “We’re seeing companies that had been soaring off of repeated beats on either revenues or earnings not do so well in this most recent period.”

The recent drawdowns point to how the current market — one in which investors consistently chase hot stocks and hot areas like artificial intelligence — can be a “dangerous” game, according to Darda.

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“What that tells me is that the expectations have just gone up so much. It’s impossible to beat expectations indefinitely. Eventually they’ll catch up,” he said. “We’re in a bit of a frenzy here. And if things start to go wrong, whether it’s the earnings not living up to expectations or the business cycle faltering, that’s when you see stock markets roll over in potentially a material fashion.”

But it hasn’t just been earnings. The jobs market is also telling a particular story.

Last month, the July jobs report spooked markets after unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, its highest level in nearly three years. The move higher also triggered a closely watched recession indicator known as the Sahm Rule.

The rule, which has accurately predicted recessions 100% of the time since the early 1970s, measures the three-month average of the national unemployment rate against the previous 12-month low. It’s triggered when unemployment rises 0.5% from that level.

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Cracks in the markets and the US economy are beginning to show, according to one strategist (Courtesy: Getty Images)

Cracks in the markets and the US economy are beginning to show, according to one strategist. (Getty Images) (caitlin_w via Getty Images)

Traders instantly panicked that the economy was slowing more than anticipated. But then the debate ensued: Why was unemployment suddenly seeing an uptick?

Economists and strategists began to lay out the possible scenarios, including a theory that above-trend immigration is driving up labor force participation rates, therefore pressuring unemployment as more workers enter the jobs market. This eased investor fears as stocks rebounded to finish August with wins across all three major indexes.

But Darda said the rise in unemployment is still “a bit concerning.” And he’s not completely sold on recent bullish commentary that higher unemployment doesn’t really matter as long as the economy keeps growing.

“4.3% is still an incredibly low unemployment rate level that looks quite good in the historical context,” he explained. “The problem, if there’s a problem, is that we’re up to 4.3% from a cyclical trough of 3.4%.”

“Those kinds of movements and the level tell us that the economy, if it’s still growing, is growing below trend or below the growth rate of potential,” he said. “There’s an exceptionally fine line between that and an actual recession.”

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Investors will receive another update on unemployment Friday with the August jobs report on deck. Darda said that report could likely lead to even more market volatility in the weeks and months ahead.

“I do think we’re probably in an environment now where volatility is going to stay elevated,” he surmised. “The risk of a more material pullback and/or correction is quite high.”

Ultimately, his view is one of caution: “With what we saw for the last two years with this market backdrop, from these valuation levels, and based on where I think we are in the business cycle, I think we’re going to be in choppy waters for a little bit.”

Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at alexandra.canal@yahoofinance.com.

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Digitized Assets & Tokenized Finance Impact Report 2026 FII Institute Site

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Digitized Assets & Tokenized Finance Impact Report 2026 FII Institute Site

What if the global financial system could move at the speed of the internet unlocking trillions in value while expanding access to capital worldwide?

Developed in collaboration with Dante Disparte, Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Global Policy & Operations at Circle; Fred Thiel, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of MARA, Inc.; and Ryan Hayward, Head of Digital Assets and Strategic Investments at Barclays, this report on digital assets and tokenized finance reveals how a rapidly emerging $16–30 trillion market is transforming traditional finance into a real-time, programmable, and borderless ecosystem.

It explores how the tokenization of real-world assets, the explosive growth of stablecoins processing over $30 trillion annually, and instant (T+0) settlement are redefining liquidity, reducing cross-border costs, and reshaping global investment flows. The report also highlights the critical role of financial inclusion, addressing a $330 billion SME financing gap alongside the rise of AI-driven transactions, energy-powered infrastructure, and evolving regulation that will ultimately determine who leads and who benefits in the next era of finance.

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Oil rollercoaster pushes prices higher as US-Iran talks raise questions

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Oil rollercoaster pushes prices higher as US-Iran talks raise questions

Brent crude (BZ=F) and West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures contracts marched higher on Tuesday morning, having plummeted more than 10% at one point in Monday’s trading session. Questions continue to swirl around the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the conflict between Iran and the US and Israel.

Brent crude (BZ=F) gained 1.7% after the opening bell in London, to around the $97.50 per barrel mark. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) also rose 1.7% to $89.55 per barrel.

The moves come amid conflicting reports about talks between Iran and the US to end fighting. On Monday, president Donald Trump delayed strikes on Iranian power plants, having given Iran a deadline to restore trade through the Strait of Hormuz, saying Washington had productive conversations with Tehran.

But Tehran has since denied that it has been in touch with US negotiators, accusing Washington of price manipulation.

On Sunday night, Trump and prime minister Keir Starmer held a 20-minute phone call about the situation.

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“They agreed that reopening the Strait of Hormuz was essential to ensure stability in the global energy market,” a Downing Street spokesperson said.

On Saturday, Trump gave Iran a 48-hour deadline to reopen the Strait — a measure set to expire shortly before midnight UK time on Monday.

In a Truth Social post, Trump wrote: “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!”

Yesterday, Iran’s defence council said in a statement that the “only way for non-hostile countries” to pass through Strait of Hormuz is “coordination with Iran”.

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Iran issues its largest-ever currency denomination as accelerating inflation ravages a financial sector deemed a ‘Ponzi scheme’ even before the war | Fortune

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Iran issues its largest-ever currency denomination as accelerating inflation ravages a financial sector deemed a ‘Ponzi scheme’ even before the war | Fortune

Iran’s economy was already crashing before the U.S. and Israel launched a war against the Islamic republic three weeks ago, and the relentless bombing since then has wreaked even more havoc.

In fact, high inflation triggered mass protests in December and January, prompting the regime to massacre tens of thousands of its own citizens. President Donald Trump warned Tehran against further violence and began a military build-up that led to the current conflict.

Inflation has worsened and apparently is so bad now the government issued its largest-ever currency denomination: the 10 million rial note (equivalent to about $7).

The new currency went into circulation last week, according to the Financial Times, and comes just a month after the prior record holder, the 5 million rial, came out.

As prices continue to spiral higher while the war boosts demand for cash, long lines formed to withdraw the fresh banknotes, and supplies quickly ran out.

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Iran’s central bank said electronic payments are still the main methods for transactions, though the 10 million rial bill will “ensure public access to cash,” the FT reported.

But doubts about the viability of electronic payments have grown during the war as the U.S. and Israel target the regime’s levers of control.

In addition to bombing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij paramilitary forces, a data center for Bank Sepah was also hit on March 11. Sepah is the country’s largest bank and is responsible for paying salaries to the military and IRGC.

“Iran is already in the middle of a severe cash liquidity crisis,” Miad Maleki, a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former Treasury Department official, said on X earlier this month. “As of Jan 2026, banks were running out of physical banknotes daily, with informal withdrawal caps of just $18–$30/day. Cash in circulation surged 49% YoY due to panic hoarding. The regime simply cannot pivot to cash payments, there isn’t enough physical currency in the system.”

Meanwhile, a currency collapse that began after last year’s U.S.-Israeli bombardment has fueled crippling inflation. The rial lost 60% of its value in the months after the 12-day war, and food inflation soared to 64% by October. It accelerated further to 105% by February, vaulting overall inflation to 47.5%.

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The exchange rate fell as low as 1.66 million rials per $1 last month, though it strengthened to about 1.5 million rials as the U.S. temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil.

Heightened demand for cash further stresses a financial system that was considered dubious even before the current war started three weeks ago.

The failure of Ayandeh Bank late last year forced the regime to fold it into a state-run lender, underscoring how fragile the sector was as bad loans piled up to politically connected cronies.

“This was largely theater. In reality, Iran’s entire banking system is insolvent, its balance sheets sustained by fiction rather than assets,” Siamak Namazi, who was a U.S. hostage in Iran from 2015 to 2023, wrote in a report for the Middle East Institute in January.

During his captivity, he learned from imprisoned former officials and business elites that politically connected borrowers bribed assessors to inflate the value of properties, which were used to obtain massive loans.

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Instead of repaying the loans, borrowers just gave their properties to the bank, which sold them to other banks at a paper profit, according to Namazi. Those banks knew the properties were overvalued “garbage,” but played along in the scheme by dumping their own toxic assets in exchange and booking fictitious gains.

“The result is a closed-loop Ponzi scheme, sustained by mutual deception and regulatory complicity,” he added. “This practice has metastasized over the past 15 years and is far more extensive than this simplified description suggests. And this is only the banking system. Much of the rest of Iran’s economy is afflicted by similarly entrenched corruption and mismanagement.”

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