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2 charts show why the stock market sell-off isn't done yet

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2 charts show why the stock market sell-off isn't done yet

The roaring stock market rally of 2024 has finally hit a pause.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) tallied their worst one-day drops since 2022 on Wednesday and extended those losses on Thursday. Over the past 10 days the benchmark S&P 500 is down about 3%, while the Nasdaq is down more than 6%.

The recent pause in the rally’s chug higher aligns with calls from equity strategists in our recently released third volume of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook. Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner noted that in years when the S&P 500 has risen more than 10% in the first half of the year, the second half usually sees an average pullback of about 9%.

Through the end of June, the S&P 500 was up about 14%.

“This choppier market action of late, which we have been anticipating, likely has further to go in terms of price and time,” Lerner wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.

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Tech has been the clear leader of the recent market drawdown. Information Technology and Communication Services are the only two of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 with negative returns over the past month. In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Lerner reasoned that the recent sell-off in Tech made sense given how far up the sector had run.

In late June, tech had outperformed the S&P 500 on a rolling two-month basis by the most since 2002, per Lerner’s research. Lerner reasons that, like a rubber band that becomes overstretched, there’s usually a snapback from extreme levels of outperformance in markets.

“When we get that stretched, a little bit of bad news can go a long way,” Lerner said.

The “little bit of news” came via earnings reports from Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) after the bell on Tuesday leading into Wednesday’s sell-off. Lerner noted that the earnings weren’t bad but failed to impress investors, who had a high bar entering this reporting season.

Earnings from Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) expected next week will prove the next test for investor sentiment in the tech sector. Lerner reasoned that, after the market reset over the past few trading sessions, there’s a chance technology’s latest swath of earnings can surpass investors’ now-trimmed expectations.

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“I think the secular story of this bull market is still intact,” Lerner said. “Money will come back there. I just think more likely you need a resting period and kind of a pause that refreshes.”

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 02: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 02, 2024 in New York City. All three major stock indexes closed at a loss with the Dow Jones leading the way closing over 350 points falling for a second day as Wall Street has a turbulent start to the second quarter. Both the Dow and S&P 500 had its worst day since March 5th.  (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 2, 2024, in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images) (Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images)

BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski also highlighted the likelihood of a pause in stocks’ climb higher in the latest edition of our Chartbook. Similarly to Lerner’s analysis, Belski’s work shows that going back to 1949, the second year of a bull market sees a roughly 9% average pullback. The most recent bull market started in October 2022.

Belski told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday that the market was “ripe for a pullback from a sentiment perspective.” But to Belski, this is a “buying opportunity.” His research shows that markets typically bounce back an average of 14.5% from the bottom of the second-year bull market drawdowns he studied.

“Stocks will be higher at year-end,” Belski said.

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Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices

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How Applied Materials Is Driving Transformation of the Finance Function with SAP Taulia

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How Applied Materials Is Driving Transformation of the Finance Function with SAP Taulia

Within the global manufacturing industry, maintaining a competitive edge requires a delicate balance between driving internal efficiency and fostering strong external relationships. For Applied Materials, a leader in materials engineering solutions for the semiconductor industry, this challenge became the foundation for a strategic finance transformation program, with an SAP Taulia solution emerging as a key enabler.

The journey began in early 2019 with the launch of Agile Finance, an end-to-end transformation initiative designed to support the company’s aggressive growth trajectory, which included a goal to double in size. The initiative was built around three strategic pillars: enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the finance organization, promoting career fulfillment, and establishing a robust digital operating model. The impact was significant, with the finance function achieving approximately 35% productivity gains in its labor force.

The third pillar—the move to a digital operating model—is where the partnership with SAP Taulia began.

“The SAP Taulia Dynamic Discounting solution was introduced not merely as a cost-cutting measure, but as a strategic tool to transform and digitize the interaction with Applied’s extensive, global supplier base,” Junaid Ahmed, corporate VP, Finance at Applied Materials, says. “We understood that to reap the benefits of digitization, we had to ensure the suppliers were on board. It needed to be a win-win outcome.”

Unprecedented flexibility for suppliers

The program empowers suppliers—thousands of them worldwide—to self-select which approved invoices they wish to discount for early payment. This is not a continuous, all-or-nothing commitment but rather a decision made on an invoice-by-invoice basis. This flexibility allows suppliers to manage their working capital needs with greater precision, taking advantage of early payment during their own critical periods, such as quarter-end or year-end, to help meet their own financial targets.

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The system also drastically improves transactional efficiency. Suppliers no longer have to call Applied to track invoice status, approval, or payment date. All this information is available 24/7 in the SAP Taulia solution, reducing resource allocation on both sides and ensuring both reap the benefits of moving to an integrated, digital system.

Free working capital to strengthen your financial supply chain and manage risk with SAP Taulia solutions

Strategic benefits for Applied Materials

For Applied, the program is a testament to its focus on balancing efficiency with strong supplier relationships. The philosophy is a “win-win” built on a crucial spread: Applied Materials, as a Fortune 500 company with strong cash flow, has a significantly lower cost of capital than many of its suppliers. By funding the discounts, Applied captures a return—the discount income—while offering its suppliers funding at a rate close to their cost of capital, but with greater convenience.

This relationship-focused approach is critical. Applied’s supplier account managers actively support the program because they recognize its mutual benefit, not viewing it as a finance mandate to push costs onto the supply base.

Furthermore, the “dynamic” nature of the discount rates is a powerful risk mitigation tool. Unlike fixed contractual discounts, the rates can be adjusted in response to global economic changes, such as shifts in interest rates. When interest rates rose after the pandemic, Applied was able to adjust the discount rates accordingly with minimal pushback, as the core proposition remains the valuable spread between the parties’ cost of capital.

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The SAP Taulia Dynamic Discounting solution has been rolled out globally, giving all suppliers the opportunity to use it. This has been critical over the last 12 months as many businesses around the globe have been subject to new and often unexpected tariff costs impacting their margin and their liquidity.

“The flexibility of the solution means suppliers can access funds when they need them, which helps them navigate some of the economic uncertainty that many businesses are facing,” Dirk Holoubek, managing director, Finance Shared Services, explains. “2025 saw a 23% increase in usage of the discounts, reflecting the pressures that suppliers are feeling right now on their cash flow.” 

The solution’s capability to drive sophisticated analytics is also a major strategic asset. It helps provide insights into the different costs of capital between Applied and its supplier base. This data allows for targeted outreach and communication, ensuring that the offer of capital support is proactively extended to the suppliers that need it most.

The strategic value of the solution is further cemented by its ownership. The acquisition of Taulia by SAP brings several advantages.

“Trust is really important to both us and our suppliers,” Ahmed says. “For our suppliers to adopt a new solution, they need to know its technology they can rely on in the long term. Being part of SAP creates that assurance in the long-term future of the program.”

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Looking forward, Applied Materials is already focused on the next stage of the transformation project: Agile Finance 3.0, which is focused on enabling the organization to become AI-first. The company is deploying a global, organization-wide AI assistant to drive personal productivity, but the strategic application of AI in the supplier management space is even more profound.

AI is expected to transform decision-making enablement by analyzing critical information and communicating effective options. In the future, AI will be able to proactively assess the specific needs and attributes of the supplier base, enabling Applied to address issues more quickly and resolve them earlier. The benefits are already tangible in e-invoicing: AI has made the solution more flexible and “human-like,” capable of reading minor changes in invoice format that would have previously caused electronic errors. This reduced rigidity and increased flexibility are directly contributing to the overall efficiency of the digital operating model.

By leveraging the SAP Taulia Dynamic Discounting solution, Applied Materials has not only digitized a process but also strategically transformed its financial operations, creating a system that is agile, resilient, and focused on maintaining mutually beneficial relationships with its global supplier ecosystem.


Cedric Bru is CEO of SAP Taulia.

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Houston budget amendment would give financial assistance to help those impacted by a trash fee

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Houston budget amendment would give financial assistance to help those impacted by a trash fee

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — Houston City Council could soon consider whether to offer financial assistance to help those who may struggle to afford a proposed trash fee.

This month, council will approve a budget. In it, Mayor John Whitmire doesn’t increase taxes.

However, he does want to charge a $5 monthly fee to cover trash services. A plan to help close the city’s nearly $200 million deficit that doesn’t add up to some.

Speaking in front of council on Wednesday, Super Neighborhood 64 president Lindsay Williams brought more than concerns, she had numbers surrounding the mayor’s proposed $5 monthly trash fee.

A plan his team says could climb to $25 a month by 2032. If it does, Williams told council that $300 annual cost would be just .15% of a $200,000 income.

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For someone making $15,000, it’s two percent. “More than 13 times the burden for the same trash, same truck and same fee, but not the same pay,” Williams explained.

However, Controller Chris Hollins said the mayor’s not being truthful about the real cost.

“Houstonians are not stupid,” Hollins said. “We should not treat Houstonians like they’re stupid.”

Hollins said the cost may need to be $40 a month. Whitmire didn’t respond to Hollins during the meeting when he asked if he plans to increase the fee.

No matter the cost, some council members want to offer financial relief. Right now, there are no exceptions.

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However, an amendment council will consider from Council Member Alejandra Salinas next week would change that.

“If they for whatever reason met the threshold and need an additional need because of the administrative fee, our amendment would allow them to apply for funds through the water fund,” Salinas said.

The trash fee wasn’t the only item from the mayor’s seven and a half billion dollar budget proposal that sparked debate. Hollins said a plan to divert money away from water utilities could drain a billion over the next five years from infrastructure money.

Whitmire disagrees saying there’s more than enough funds to handle the change, and continue with projects.

“We’ve all admitted the budget’s not perfect, but certainly it’s a first start that Houstonians understand and it’s a shame it’s being so politicized because it’s literally people’s lives and death,” Whitmire said.

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Council will vote on amendments next week. It has to have a new budget in place by the end of the month.

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How can I illustrate our financial position to a spouse who shows little interest?

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How can I illustrate our financial position to a spouse who shows little interest?

Reader question: My spouse has little interest in our financial position. As we age, this concerns me. I try to share some basic information (income, spending, account balances, debt, and so on) each month but rarely get a response. I think graphs or charts might be of more interest to her than a bunch of numbers. What recommendations would you have for illustrating our financial position so that I am not the only person aware of how we are situated? Thanks!

Answer: Your situation is pretty common. Most couples I know develop a division of labor over time, where one person is in charge of financial matters and the other person is less involved. That’s definitely the case for my husband and me. He’s in charge of paying all the monthly bills and preparing our tax returns, but the financial planning and investment decisions are up to me. This type of arrangement might work well for a long time, but can become less sustainable with age, particularly if the “finance person” in the relationship dies or develops a major health issue.

Online tools and mind maps

Illustrating your financial situation with charts and graphs is a great idea that might help your spouse become a little more involved. Morningstar’s  Portfolio X-Ray  tool includes a variety of images that help illustrate your financial situation. Websites for most major brokerage firms also include some visual tools. Schwab, for example, offers a Portfolio Checkup and a bar graph illustrating your account’s monthly income from dividends and interest income. Vanguard has a Portfolio Watch tool and a variety of performance illustrations, tools, and calculators.

A  mind map, which we used with clients when I worked for a financial advisory firm, can be another way to picture your entire financial situation on one page. There are various  softwaretemplates  for drawing a mind map, or you can simply sketch it out with a large sheet of paper and a pencil. Start with your names at the center of the page. Then draw spokes connecting to various categories, such as names of other family members; investment accounts; real estate and other assets, insurance policies, estate plans, key goals and values, and contact information for accountants, estate planners, and other professionals. It can be helpful to go through the mind map together and make any updates needed at least once a year.

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Other ways to communicate about money

A few other ideas—though not related to charts and graphs—might also be useful.

I like the idea of putting together a  net worth statement  that itemizes cash, taxable accounts, real estate, retirement accounts, and debt for each member of the couple as well as items owned jointly. It’s a good idea to update this document at least once a year and  discuss it as a couple. If you set up the document as a spreadsheet, you can include columns with additional information such as account numbers, what each account is used for, which accounts are subject to required minimum distributions, or tax issues like potential capital gains.

Many couples also put together a  binder  (sometimes humorously called a “Doomsday Book”) that contains information about where to find important paperwork, insurance policies, how bills are paid, what each account is for, steps the surviving spouse will need to take, final wishes, and any other critical information.

A well-qualified financial adviser can bridge the information gap

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Finally, you could consider working with a good  financial adviser,  who can help involve your spouse in financial matters while you’re still living and step in to fully manage investments and personal finance decisions if you pass away before your spouse. Make sure the adviser holds the Certified Financial Planner designation and charges fees that are reasonable. Although a 1% fee is still the industry standard for accounts of $1 million or less, it’s possible to find advisers who charge significantly less, including a few who price their services based on hours worked instead of a percentage of assets under management.

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This article was provided to The Associated Press by Morningstar. For more personal finance content, go to https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance.

Amy C. Arnott, CFA, is a portfolio strategist for Morningstar and co-host of The Long View podcast.

Related links:

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What If This Turns Out to Be a Terrible Time to Retire?

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Bill Bengen: ‘Inflation Is the Greatest Enemy of Retirees’

https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/bill-bengen-inflation-is-greatest-enemy-retirees

3 Big Questions to Ask Your Aging Parents

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https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/3-big-questions-ask-your-aging-parents

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