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2 charts show why the stock market sell-off isn't done yet

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2 charts show why the stock market sell-off isn't done yet

The roaring stock market rally of 2024 has finally hit a pause.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) tallied their worst one-day drops since 2022 on Wednesday and extended those losses on Thursday. Over the past 10 days the benchmark S&P 500 is down about 3%, while the Nasdaq is down more than 6%.

The recent pause in the rally’s chug higher aligns with calls from equity strategists in our recently released third volume of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook. Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner noted that in years when the S&P 500 has risen more than 10% in the first half of the year, the second half usually sees an average pullback of about 9%.

Through the end of June, the S&P 500 was up about 14%.

“This choppier market action of late, which we have been anticipating, likely has further to go in terms of price and time,” Lerner wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.

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Tech has been the clear leader of the recent market drawdown. Information Technology and Communication Services are the only two of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 with negative returns over the past month. In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Lerner reasoned that the recent sell-off in Tech made sense given how far up the sector had run.

In late June, tech had outperformed the S&P 500 on a rolling two-month basis by the most since 2002, per Lerner’s research. Lerner reasons that, like a rubber band that becomes overstretched, there’s usually a snapback from extreme levels of outperformance in markets.

“When we get that stretched, a little bit of bad news can go a long way,” Lerner said.

The “little bit of news” came via earnings reports from Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) after the bell on Tuesday leading into Wednesday’s sell-off. Lerner noted that the earnings weren’t bad but failed to impress investors, who had a high bar entering this reporting season.

Earnings from Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) expected next week will prove the next test for investor sentiment in the tech sector. Lerner reasoned that, after the market reset over the past few trading sessions, there’s a chance technology’s latest swath of earnings can surpass investors’ now-trimmed expectations.

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“I think the secular story of this bull market is still intact,” Lerner said. “Money will come back there. I just think more likely you need a resting period and kind of a pause that refreshes.”

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 02: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 02, 2024 in New York City. All three major stock indexes closed at a loss with the Dow Jones leading the way closing over 350 points falling for a second day as Wall Street has a turbulent start to the second quarter. Both the Dow and S&P 500 had its worst day since March 5th.  (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 2, 2024, in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images) (Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images)

BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski also highlighted the likelihood of a pause in stocks’ climb higher in the latest edition of our Chartbook. Similarly to Lerner’s analysis, Belski’s work shows that going back to 1949, the second year of a bull market sees a roughly 9% average pullback. The most recent bull market started in October 2022.

Belski told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday that the market was “ripe for a pullback from a sentiment perspective.” But to Belski, this is a “buying opportunity.” His research shows that markets typically bounce back an average of 14.5% from the bottom of the second-year bull market drawdowns he studied.

“Stocks will be higher at year-end,” Belski said.

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Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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Your Savings Account Is Failing: 3 Shifts to Reclaim Your Wealth

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Your Savings Account Is Failing: 3 Shifts to Reclaim Your Wealth

You’ve done everything right, and you’re still losing ground. That’s the sentiment many are feeling, as rising inflation takes bigger bites out of your paychecks when you pump gas, pay your electric bill or go to the grocery store.

It used to be that you could turn to a high-yield savings account to outpace it. Yet, with inflation at 4.20% and not likely to cool soon, most savings accounts don’t earn returns keeping pace with inflation.

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Hong Kong vows stronger exchange with reforms, bond futures and gold push

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Hong Kong vows stronger exchange with reforms, bond futures and gold push
Hong Kong is pressing ahead with an overhaul of listing rules and the launch of new product initiatives, the city’s deputy finance chief said on Friday as the bourse operator marked 26 years as a publicly traded company.
Speaking at the anniversary ceremony of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX), Deputy Financial Secretary Michael Wong Wai-lun outlined reforms under review, including optimising weighted voting rights, easing secondary listings by overseas issuers, and expanding flexibility for biotech and specialist technology companies.

“We will continue to work tirelessly and proactively to make Hong Kong even better and stronger as a leading international financial centre,” Wong said.

The consultation period closed last month, and HKEX was now reviewing feedback before finalising the measures, he added.

Wong also welcomed the forthcoming launch of five-year mainland Chinese government bond futures, saying the contract would provide efficient risk-management tools and reinforce Hong Kong’s role as the world’s leading offshore renminbi hub.

He said Hong Kong was building a commodities ecosystem, using gold as a strategic entry point, with plans for expanded storage and refinery capacity and the reactivation of a US dollar gold futures contract.

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S&P Global improves outlook on city of Houston’s finances | Houston Public Media

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S&P Global improves outlook on city of Houston’s finances | Houston Public Media

Dominic Anthony Walsh / Houston Public Media

Houston Mayor John Whitmire speaks about his proposed budget on May 5, 2026.

One of the “Big Three” credit ratings agencies improved its outlook on the city of Houston’s financial position on Thursday, two weeks after city officials approved major reforms to the city’s revenue flow.

In a news release announcing the “stable” outlook, the agency said the city “made substantial progress in materially reducing its budget gap … through various structural changes.”

S&P Global lowered the city’s outlook in 2024 amid rising public safety costs tied to the more than $1 billion blockbuster settlement with the firefighters’ union, which included immediate backpay and hiked salaries by more than 30% over the five-year agreement. The “negative” outlook signaled the possibility of a credit downgrade, which would raise the city’s borrowing costs.

This year, Houston Mayor John Whitmire’s administration redirected about $100 million in revenue from the city’s water and wastewater utility to the $3 billion general fund, which supports most departments including police and fire. At the same time, the administration moved the more than $100 million solid waste department out of the general fund and into the utility while adopting a $5 monthly fee for garbage customers.

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Altogether, the changes essentially erased the projected deficit for this fiscal year, which runs through June 2027.

Steven David, Whitmire’s chief operations officer, said the improved outlook is “just a validation of the work that Mayor Whitmire has been doing for the past two-and-a-half years.”

“If fiscal stability is a house, we’ve laid the foundation with this fiscal year, and it’s good to see that S&P is recognizing that,” he said.

S&P’s statement included a note of caution. The city’s budget deficit has routinely ballooned beyond what was planned.

In 2026, the administration expected a gap between revenue and spending of about $70 million. The actual deficit exceeded $170 million, although the city’s critical fund balance remained on target.

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“If these deviations from the city’s budget continue, it could weaken our view of the city’s budgetary practices and overall reserves, aligning them more closely with those of lower-rated peers,” the agency said.

City Controller Chris Hollins — Houston’s elected financial official and a vocal critic of Whitmire’s financial policies — said the warnings “show we’re not out of the woods.”

The other “Big Three” credit ratings agencies have not yet announced changes. Fitch maintained a negative outlook, first assigned in 2024, while Moody’s outlook remained stable.

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