With crypto continuing to remain a front-and-center issue in U.S. political circles, including the nomination of a pro-crypto challenger to Senator Elizabeth Warren, it should come as no surprise that policymakers are wading more directly into the sector. Specifically, former President (and current candidate) Donald Trump has been making public and forceful forays to the crypto sector, seemingly a reflection of the massive spending that the crypto industry has invested into current races. The latest example of this is the coming launch of World Liberty Financial, a crypto project founded, supported, and endorsed by the current Presidential candidate.

While specifics remain somewhat difficult to pin down, with some versions the whitepaper becoming available, there is still plenty to digest and work through as the project comes to light. As with most thing involving former President Trump, however, there has been some controversy and drama around the launch of the project. Specifically the X account of Laura Trump, daughter in-law of the former President and Republican National Committee co-chair, appeared to be hacked and disseminated false information regarding the launch of the project as well as malicious links to a coin claiming to the be the official coin of the project. Setting aside these hiccups and drama, however, it is indicative of the strength inf the crypto sector that a Presidential candidate from a major U.S. political party is launching a project in the middle of a campaign.

Let’s take a look at items crypto investors should keep in mind as the project continues to move forward to launch.

Security Should Be A Top Concern

Any project that is led by such as high-profile figure, such as the former President, is bound to attract substantial amounts of attention from investors and policymakers, but also criminal actors looking to exploit weaknesses in the underlying infrastructure and cybersecurity. Analysis of the components and versions of the whitepaper that have been leaked to date indicate that the technical underpinnings of World Liberty Financial are very similar to those that supported Dough Finance. In July 2024 Dough Finance was hacked via exploiting flash loan transactions focusing on vulnerable smart contracts. Although the founding team, including members of the Trump family as well as the technical team, have emphasized that security will be front-and-center for this venture, the technical similarities should be cause for further examination.

Additionally the fact that details and pieces of information are being continuously leaked prior to the project launch leaves the team and project itself open to the array of hacking and impersonation scams that have already occurred.

Centralization Will Be Front And Center

Mirroring many of the crypto products and services that have deployed since 2022 a defining characteristic of World Liberty Financial, according to the whitepaper that has been circulated, is that 70% of WLFI – the governance token – will be held by the founders, team, and service providers. Centralization and this level of concentrated control is, of course, the opposite of the original ideas behind the crypto movement, but do track with the centralization that has occurred in the staking, stablecoin, and ETF slices of the crypto landscape. For context, Ethereum’s Genesis block reserves a combined 16.6% of ether for the Ethereum Foundation and early contributors, Cardano founders retained 20% of ADA and Satoshi Nakamoto holds approximately 5% of total bitcoin supply.

While the final whitepaper and tokenomics are yet to be disclosed, the level of centralization of governance tokens is worth noting for investors looking to both invest and/or exercise voting power through acquisition of WLFI tokens.

Stablecoins Feature Prominently

Since the final tokenomics and whitepaper have yet to be publicly disclosed the mission and business model of World Liberty Financial remains a matter of speculation versus fact. That said, both the former President and project representatives have reiterated the goal of establishing the United States as the crypto capital of the planet. One avenue that has been publicly disclosed as part of that goal is the aspiration of the project to embrace stablecoins alongside the WLFI governance token.

Building on comments from former President Trump regarding the position of the U.S. as an economic leader and crypto hub, combined with the fact that over 90% of stablecoins are backed on a 1:1 basis by the dollar and these statements seem in alignment. Specifics related to which stablecoins will be integrated are forthcoming, but it is yet another indication of the growing importance of stablecoins to the crypto space.

Regardless of how World Liberty Financial works out, this project will continue to elevate crypto in terms of mainstream coverage and investor understanding.

A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co

In the context of inflation, was the Federal Reserve late to ? Most would agree the answer is yes.

But the Fed doesn’t have just one mandate of promoting price stability. It has a of promoting both price stability and maximum employment.

Taking employment into consideration, that the Fed was late to tighten monetary policy.

I can’t pinpoint exactly when the calls to tighten began when inflation was heating up three years ago. But we can all agree that these calls grew loudest ahead of the .

The core PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — was at a high of 5.5% in March 2022. Clearly, inflation was a problem.

That same month, the unemployment rate was 3.6%, the lowest level since before the pandemic.

The unemployment rate effectively bottomed that month, mostly trending sideways as inflation rates cooled.

What if the Fed acted earlier?

I generally don’t like considering counterfactual scenarios because the world is complex, and no one can say with certainty what would’ve actually happened in the past if certain things had gone differently. But since we continue to hear folks casually say that we would’ve been better off if the Fed acted earlier, I’ll indulge in the thought exercise.

What if the Fed hiked rates at its January 2022 meeting? Maybe our inflation mess would’ve ended a little sooner. But the unemployment rate was higher at 4%. Would we have been okay with the unemployment rate trending at 4%? Maybe.

What if we went back a little further, and the Fed hiked rates at its October/November 2021 meeting? The core PCE price index was increasing at about a 4.5% rate. Price-sensitive consumers would’ve been much happier to see inflation top out there. But the unemployment rate was higher at about 4.5%. Does the cost of keeping unemployment almost a full percentage point higher justify the benefit of keeping prices a bit cooler?

What if the Fed moved even sooner when the unemployment rate was even higher?

The big picture

Here’s my point: While it’s fair to argue the Fed hiked rates too late in the context of inflation, I don’t think it’s fair to argue they made a mistake — especially when you consider the goals of monetary policy in their entirety, which include promoting maximum employment.

While high inflation is a headache for consumers, at least some of it was the result of newly employed people finally being able to afford to purchase goods and services.

Story continues

Like I said before, the world is complex. So who knows? Maybe there’s a scenario where the Fed tightened monetary policy sooner and the unemployment rate continued to fall anyway as inflation cooled.

But the likely outcome of tighter monetary policy earlier in this economic cycle would have been unemployment bottoming at a higher level than what we’ve experienced.

I’m not suggesting the Fed was right or wrong to adjust monetary policy when it did. I’m just saying that you cannot talk about how monetary policy actions affect inflation without addressing how they affect employment.

How about instead of proclaiming that the Fed was late in the context of inflation — which is not a controversial view — we instead tackle the of how we balance the tradeoff between price stability and employment. How many people is it okay to leave unemployed if it means improving price stability?

The state of play

Over the past two and a half years, . And while the unemployment rate remains low by historical standards, it has been .

Last month when the unemployment rate was 4.3%, : “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.“

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” he . It was one of the more explicit signals that rate cuts would begin soon, a development most market participants welcome.

Of course, there are also voices brushing off the rise in unemployment as they argue that the Fed should wait longer until inflation is defeated more definitively.

Reviewing the macro crosscurrents

There were a few notable data points and macroeconomic developments from last week to consider:

The labor market continues to add jobs. According to the report released Friday, U.S. employers added 142,000 jobs in August. It was the 44th straight month of gains, reaffirming an economy with growing demand for labor.

Total payroll employment is at a record 158.8 million jobs, up 6.4 million from the prepandemic high.

The unemployment rate — that is, the number of workers who identify as unemployed as a percentage of the civilian labor force — declined to 4.2% during the month. While it continues to hover near 50-year lows, the metric is near its highest level since October 2021.

While the major metrics continue to reflect job growth and low unemployment, the labor market isn’t as hot as it used to be.

Wage growth ticks up. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month in August, up from the 0.2% pace in July. On a year-over-year basis, this metric is up 3.8%, near the lowest rate since June 2021.

Job openings fall. According to the , employers had 7.76 million job openings in July, down from 7.91 million in June. While this remains slightly above prepandemic levels, it’s from the March 2022 high of 12.18 million.

During the period, there were 7.16 million unemployed people — meaning there were 1.07 job openings per unemployed person. Once a sign of , this telling metric is now below prepandemic levels.

Layoffs remain depressed. Employers laid off 1.76 million people in July. While challenging for all those affected, this figure represents just 1.1% of total employment. This metric continues to trend near pre-pandemic low levels.

Hiring activity continues to be much higher than layoff activity. During the month, employers hired 5.52 million people, up from 5.25 million in June.

People are quitting less. In July, 3.28 million workers quit their jobs. This represents 2.1% of the workforce. While up from the prior month, it remains below the prepandemic trend.

A low quits rate could mean a number of things: more people are satisfied with their job; workers have fewer outside job opportunities; wage growth is cooling; productivity will improve as fewer people are entering new unfamiliar roles.

Labor productivity inches up. From the : “Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.5% in the second quarter of 2024… as output increased 3.5 percent and hours worked increased 1.0%. … From the same quarter a year ago, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.7%.”

Unemployment claims ticked lower. declined to 227,000 during the week ending August 31, down from 232,000 the week prior. While this metric continues to be at levels historically associated with economic growth, recent prints have been trending higher.

Card spending data is stable. From Bank of America: “Total card spending per household was up 2.8% y/y in week ending Aug 31, according to BAC aggregated credit & debit card data. This increase was likely driven by the change in the timing of Labor Day compared to last year (09/02/24 versus 09/04/24). Within sectors, furniture saw the biggest increase since last week, while entertainment showed the largest decline.”

Gas prices fall. From : “After idling over the Labor Day weekend, the national average for a gallon of gas resumed its pace of daily declines by falling six cents since last week to $3.30. Key contributors are low gas demand and the plunging cost of oil, which is struggling to stay above $70 a barrel.”

Mortgage rates hold steady. According to , the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.35% this week. From Freddie Mac: “Even though rates have come down over the summer, home sales have been lackluster. On the refinance side however, homeowners who bought in recent years are taking advantage of declining mortgage rates in order to lower their monthly payments.”

There are in the U.S., of which 86 million are and of which are . Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have , and most of those mortgages before rates surged from 2021 lows. All of this is to say: Most homeowners are not particularly sensitive to movements in home prices or mortgage rates.

Construction spending ticks lower. declined 0.3% to an annual rate of $2.16 trillion in July.

Services surveys look up. From S&P Global’s : “An improvement in the headline services PMI to its highest for nearly two-and-a-half years provides further encouraging evidence that the US economy is enjoying robust economic growth in the third quarter, adding to signs of a ‘soft landing’. The faster service sector expansion means the PMI surveys are signalling GDP growth of 2-2.5% in the third quarter. At the same time, the August survey data signaled a further cooling of selling price inflation, notably in the service sector, which has now eased close to the average seen prior to the pandemic and a level consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.”

Manufacturing surveys don’t look great. From S&P Global’s : “A further downward lurch in the PMI points to the manufacturing sector acting as an increased drag on the economy midway through the third quarter. Forward-looking indicators suggest this drag could intensify in the coming months. Slower than expected sales are causing warehouses to fill with unsold stock, and a dearth of new orders has prompted factories to cut production for the first time since January. Producers are also reducing payroll numbers for the first time this year and buying fewer inputs amid concerns about excess capacity.”

Similarly, the ISM’s signaled contraction in the industry.

Keep in mind that during times of perceived stress, soft survey data tends to be more exaggerated than hard data.

Factory orders jump. According to the , new orders for manufactured goods rose 5% to $592.1 billion in July.

Key recession indicators point to growth. Here’s a from economist Justin Wolfers tracking the trajectory of key measures of economic activity.

Near-term GDP growth estimates remain positive. The sees real GDP growth climbing at a 2.1% rate in Q3.

Putting it all together

We continue to get evidence that we are experiencing a where inflation cools to manageable levels .

This comes as the Federal Reserve continues to employ very tight monetary policy in its . Though, with inflation rates having from their 2022 highs, the Fed has taken a less hawkish tone in , even signaling that .

It would take monetary policy as being loose, which means we should be prepared for relatively tight financial conditions (e.g., higher interest rates, tighter lending standards, and lower stock valuations) to linger. All this means for the time being, and the risk the into a recession will be relatively elevated.

At the same time, we also know that stocks are discounting mechanisms — meaning that .

Also, it’s important to remember that while recession risks may be elevated, . Unemployed people are , and those with jobs are getting raises.

Similarly, as many corporations . Even as the threat of higher debt servicing costs looms, give corporations room to absorb higher costs.

At this point, any given that the .

And as always, should remember that and are just when you enter the stock market with the aim of generating long-term returns. While , the long-run outlook for stocks .

A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co

Bajaj Housing Finance is set to launch its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, September 9. Ahead of the public issue, the grey market premium (GMP) for the company’s shares stands at Rs 51-52, indicating a potential upside of 73% above the issue price.

The price band for the IPO has been fixed at Rs 66-70 a share.

Promoted by Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv, the company aims to raise Rs 6,560 crore through the IPO, which includes Rs 3,560 crore from fresh equity sales and a Rs 3,000 crore offer for sale (OFS).

Ahead of the public issue, Bajaj Housing Finance has secured Rs 1,758 crore from marquee anchor investors, allotting shares at Rs 70 per share, the upper end of the price band. The anchor investors include prominent names like the Government of Singapore, ADIA, Fidelity, Invesco, HSBC, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, and JP Morgan.

The net proceeds from the IPO will bolster the company’s capital base to support future business expansion, particularly in onward lending.Bajaj Housing Finance is a non-deposit-taking HFC registered with the National Housing Bank since September 2015, offering tailored financial solutions for purchasing and renovating residential and commercial properties.It has also been identified and categorized as an upper-layer NBFC by the RBI in India and its comprehensive mortgage products include home loans, loans against property, lease rental discounting and developer financing.The company primarily focuses on individual retail housing loans, supported by a diverse range of commercial and developer loans, serving customers from homebuyers to large developers.

For the fiscal year 2023-24, the housing lender posted a net profit of Rs 1,731 crore, marking a growth of 38% from Rs 1,258 crore in FY23.

Kotak Mahindra Capital, BofA Securities, Axis Capital, Goldman Sachs (India) Securities, SBI Capital Markets, JM Financial, and IIFL Securities are the book running lead managers to the issue.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)