Denver, CO
Improving Investor Behavior: Market forecasting is a loser’s game
It’s Friday, Aug. 2, and I’m writing this article with CNBC open on my browser. The headline shouts, “Dow Loses 750 Points, Nasdaq Enters Correction After Weak Jobs Report.” The week was rough, with markets retracting from what felt like a month of steady new highs. A scant few weeks ago, investors were piling cash into highly valued tech stocks. Now they can’t seem to exit fast enough. Fear and greed pervade.
For frequent readers of this column, a correction should come as no surprise. They happen every 12 to 18 months as a “normal” part of financial markets reacting to economic and market growth. Corporate earnings, the most recent jobs report, and the wait-and-see Federal Reserve seem to be contributing factors, but focusing on these each month is akin to analyzing the bugs on your windshield: watch too closely, and you’re likely to crash. For long-term investors, “corrections” (I still dislike that word) are a mere hiccup on the path to a bigger future.
But news broadcasters, of course, have a different perspective. The week’s headlines touted “Investor Recession Fears,” “Sharpest Weekly Losses.” In the next breath we read “Earnings Flurry Boosts Indexes,” and “Dow Closes Higher Buoyed by Bullish Inflation Report.” Bull or bear, it’s been a dramatic couple of weeks. As Dickens wrote, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.”
The news is inherently reactive. Anchors have the unenviable task of filling 24 hours of on-air time daily, so besides reporting on the event, they also feel the need to attempt to explain why it happened (or add some drama). Sometimes this is straightforward; other times — especially around financial markets — it’s downright impossible.
Daily market movements are random. Period. For fun, start each day by guessing whether your favorite index is going to finish the day up or down. Write down your guess. Do it for a month, and see how many days you get it right. The reality is that daily market movements are affected by so many variables that choosing up, down, or flat follows the same probability as a coin flip. What’s comical is financial media’s need to explain why the coin landed heads up.
Remember: volatility drives the narrative; the narrative does not drive volatility. When markets go down, “professionals” attempt to explain why. Maybe they’re right, maybe they’re wrong, but we can never measure their accuracy. So why do we listen to them?
As humans, we want answers. Cause and effect. The market went down 800 points; why? Markets are hugely amorphous, so we turn to “professionals” to explain the details. They give us a “reason,” and we wonder how we could be so silly to have missed the signs.
Taking a step back shows us how crazy it is to believe one person could flawlessly understand why markets moved on any given day. This is akin to someone explaining that the coin landed heads up because the wind blew. It’s insanity, yet we expect it, accept it, and worse yet, get on board with it. Human behavior craves certainty and stability, yet these are mere mental mirages crafted by those seeking to keep our attention.
This leads to an even bigger problem: predictions. Given an audience, reporters may feel empowered to start guessing the outcome of the coin flip before it even starts. Viewers might like to understand why something happened, but if they could know the outcome ahead of time? Well, that’s the promised land. And the media loves to give the viewer what they want, even if it’s completely wrong.
This is nothing new. In the mid-1980s, as a fresh-faced adviser working for a large firm, I once picked up a renowned economist from Stapleton Airport. My job was to drive him to Breckenridge for a research conference where he’d present his future predictions. At the time, interest rates were climbing, inflation was high, and he believed emphatically that mortgage rates were going to keep rising and never come back down.
That guess was wrong. Very wrong. Later in his career, he said Y2K was going to cause a worldwide recession, comparing it to the energy crisis of the early 1970s. Wrong again. Today he (naturally) owns a huge market research firm. As our compliance department says, “Past performance is not indicative of future success.”
Though we may wish for accurate forecasting, the truth is we have no facts about the future. We don’t know what will happen or how markets will react. Humans tend to make decisions with emotion instead of common sense, and we ignore mistakes and the wisdom they bring. That’s why human nature is a poor investor.
Choosing to do the right thing — the hard thing — takes effort and discipline. It also takes a perspective that feels unnatural but makes sense when taken at face value. Invest for the long term. Remove the guesswork, and ignore those who try to convince you they have an edge. Fall back on humility as a key character trait, recognizing that your knowledge and assumptions have limits. Above all, ask why. Not why something happened; in markets that answer isn’t knowable. Instead ask why someone is trying to explain the unexplainable. You’ll find far more insight.
Steve Booren is the founder of Prosperion Financial Advisors in Greenwood Village. He is the author of “Blind Spots: The Mental Mistakes Investors Make” and “Intelligent Investing: Your Guide to a Growing Retirement Income.” He was named by Forbes as a 2021 Best-in-State Wealth Advisor, and a Barron’s 2021 Top Advisor by State. This column is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations.
Denver, CO
Arizona Cardinals will face Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix for 1st time
Broncos QB Bo Nix is one of an projected four quarterbacks the Cardinals have never faced previously.
The Arizona Cardinals will take on the Denver Broncos in Week 7, facing them at State Farm Stadium. The Broncos’ starting quarterback is Bo Nix.
It will be the first time that the Cardinals face Nix in a regular-season game.
Bo Nix through 2 NFL seasons
Nix enters this third NFL season. He has led the Broncos to the playoffs twice.
He is 24-10 as a starter and 1-1 in the playoffs.
Through two seasons, he has completed 64.8% of his passes for 7,706 yards, 54 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. He has rushed for nine touchdowns in two seasons.
Nix is one of four projected starting quarterbacks the Cardinals will face for the first time ever this season. The others are:
- Jaxson Dart, New York Giants
- Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints
- Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders
Get more Cardinals and NFL coverage from Cards Wire’s Jess Root and others by listening to the latest on the Rise Up, See Red podcast. Subscribe on Spotify, YouTube or Apple podcasts.
Denver, CO
This Boulder farm dinner serves up midsummer Slavic vibes with James Beard-worthy fare
If you were a single Slavic pagan in ancient times, the path to finding true love was fairly straightforward and considerably more exciting than going on a blind date. All you had to do was weave a garland of wildflowers, grab your intended by the hand, hurl yourselves over the roaring flames of a bonfire, and plunge nude into the nearest body of water.
In other words, ancient midsummer festivals of romance were fairly high stakes.
While you likely won’t find anyone risking third-degree burns or stripping nude in Boulder this weekend, chef Bo Porytko is reviving similar energy for a sprawling 10-course fine-dining experience where feast-goers can party like it’s 900 A.D.
The Midsummer Farm Dinner takes place on Sunday at Esoterra Culinary Garden, 8985 Valmont Road, Boulder. The event will bring together a collective of 10 chefs from some of Denver’s buzziest restaurants — including Molotov, Somebody People, Hearth, Odell’s Bagel, Petit Chelou, Margot, Bear Leek, La Diabla and Rougarou — for a collaborative, long-table meal built around Esoterra’s summer produce. The outdoor feast will begin with arrivals at 5 p.m., followed by dinner at 6 p.m. Tickets start at $260.
Porytko, the chef behind Denver’s Molotov restaurant, said the dinner series was inspired by his heritage.
“In Ukrainian culture, we have something called Ivana Kupala, which dates back to ancient times,” Porytko said. “Basically, it’s their midsummer festivities that also act as a mating holiday.”
Don’t worry, coupling up is not required for this event.
“Midsummer is just kind of a fun time,” Porytko said. “It was a good way to harness these weird, culty vibes that kind of suit the farm setting.”
The ancient East Slavic festival of Kupala was celebrated on the evening of June 23-24.
For guests wondering how that ancient atmosphere translates to a modern dinner on a 100-acre Boulder property, the evening starts on a hospitable note. Guests arrive for James Beard-recognized cocktails mixed by the team from Denver’s Yacht Club. From there, diners have time to explore the farm.
“The way the actual event begins is people come to the farm and get about an hour with welcome cocktails,” Porytko said. “Then you’re supposed to wander, check out the space, take in the farm, and there’s a little bit of education too.”
Attendees are asked to arrive dressed entirely in white. An LED flower wreath will be placed at each setting around a massive table built for 100 people. A maypole will be erected nearby, and a live DJ will guide the evening’s soundtrack. The music will begin to vibe with standard dinner fare before veering into unexpected territory.
“The DJ will play normal music, but then take, for example, a Kelly Clarkson song and turn down the beats per minute so she sounds like she’s speaking in Viking tones,” Porytko said, adding that the DJ will also mix in random Gregorian chants to fit the scene.
As the wine flows, the initial formality of the long table quickly disappears. Porytko said guests naturally start getting up, making friends and moving around the property after a few courses.
“After 10 courses and eight glasses of wine, people just kind of take it in whatever direction they want,” Porytko said.
To translate those festive vibes into an actual 10-course meal, the participating chefs rely on a highly democratic planning process. Justin Freeman, the executive chef of Somebody People in Denver, will help coordinate the logistics, beginning with a digital inventory of whatever Esoterra is currently pulling from the soil.
“There’s a Google Doc that we all use,” Freeman said. “We just ask the owner of Esoterra — Mark DeRespinis — what he’s growing, and then everyone signs up for what ingredients they want to cook with. We really just try to showcase what Mark has.”
Chefs look over the active list, claim the specific vegetables they want to work with and design a dish around them. Freeman then steps in to help arrange the final layout of the courses. He said the event has become an ongoing annual collaboration to give a little praise to the people who are doing all the hard work — the farmers.
The resulting menu leans heavily into hyper-seasonal creativity, starting with Porytko’s own intricate contribution.
“The idea is to highlight items from the farm,” Porytko said. “For me, I’m highlighting their beets, their Badger Flame beets.”
Porytko is preparing a guinea hen roulade cured in the juice of the Badger Flame beets and stuffed with a chocolate mint mousseline. The dish will be served with a beet mole, a gummied Badger Flame beet and traditional roasted beets.
The rest of the collective will showcase the farm’s harvest through a variety of distinct culinary styles. Freeman is serving grilled fennel with a creamy pistachio sauce, pickled celtuce and seasoned breadcrumbs. Andrew Van Stee of Hearth is contributing Moroccan pistachio carrot rolls, while Miles Odell of Odell’s Bagel is pairing dry-aged ocean trout with a coconut pea puree. Justin Fulton of Margot is preparing charred cucumbers with agretti, coconut broth and yuzu kosho, and Rema Maaliki and Harrison Porter of Bear Leek are bringing braised leeks with leek soubise, albufera and crispy leeks. The lineup also features plates from James Beard chef finalist José Avila of La Diabla, JohnDavid Wright of Rougarou and pastry work by Ali Spahr of Hearth .
The actual preparation happens entirely outdoors. The chefs arrive early in the morning to set up tables, tents and their own Japanese konro grills packed with binchotan charcoal.
“It all happens out in the field, in the middle of Mark’s gardens,” Freeman said. “We set up that morning. We’ll set up the tables, the tents, everything. Then we do all the cooking in front of everyone.”
Diners can stand right by the workspace and watch the dishes come together. For the chefs, the open-air format offers a rare chance to step away from their respective restaurant kitchens and collaborate directly with their fellows.
“For us, as chefs, we just don’t get to see each other very often, so it’s really fun and special when we do,” Porytko said. “We definitely have our own little hangout in the kitchen area with all the chefs, you know — all the weirdos in the corner.”
Freeman echoed the sentiment, noting the benefit of the format for the guests as well.
“With this one, you’re getting 10 different chefs with 10 different views all coming together under one roof,” Freeman said.
Cooking in an open field does, however, mean operating at the whim of Colorado’s summer elements. Freeman recalled a previous year when a sudden onset of mountain weather forced the culinary crew to quickly shift from grilling to structural defense.
“The first year we had a little bit of rain at the start of it,” Freeman said. “Then the wind was crazy, where we all had to come and grab the tent so it didn’t blow away.”
Hopefully, on Sunday, the weather will remain tame, but guests should prepare for whatever Mother Nature has to throw at them, just in case.
The event takes place on Sunday, with arrival at 5 p.m. and dinner at 6 p.m. The location is Esoterra Culinary Garden, 8985 Valmont Road, Boulder. Tickets start at $260 and are available through Tock.
Denver, CO
Denver Broncos Roster Breakdown: Center—The Depth Question
A year ago, the Denver Broncos had some questions about the future of their center position. However, during the bye, the Broncos answered those questions by extending one their starter.
Even with that extension, the Broncos still have some questions about the position’s future, partly due to the structure of the deal they granted and the position’s depth.
Our last installment in this positional series was at offensive guard, where the Broncos are very strong and deep. As we continue breaking down each position on the Broncos’ roster ahead of training camp, let’s examine where things stand at center.
Starter
Luke Wattenberg
Wattenberg is the starter and will remain so after the big extension Denver gave him in November 2025. Before the extension, his play was solid, but afterward, he looked like a top 10 center in the NFL — then he suffered a shoulder injury.
Wattenberg’s long-term place with the Broncos will depend entirely on his play, as his four-year, $48 million deal is structured so that Denver can get out of it after the 2027 season. It’s essentially a two-year deal for about $25 million.
If Wattenberg isn’t cutting it or can’t stay healthy, the Broncos could move on and save themselves $23 million. He’s missed six games to injury since becoming the starter in 2024, so the Broncos’ depth could be tested with Wattenberg as the guy.
Backup
Alex Forsyth
The backup spot is held by Forsyth, a solid run blocker who struggles in pass protection. He has seen the field some over the last two years. When Forsyth stepped in for Wattenberg late last season, he looked much the same as he did in the same role in 2024.
There are still questions about Forsyth, not only with his play but also with the fact that he is entering the final year of his rookie deal as a 2023 seventh-round draft pick. Denver could be looking for a new backup center after this season, as he could decide he wants a chance to start elsewhere and walk in free agency, especially with six career starts on his resume.
Wattenberg will be the starter for 2026 and 2027, so long as he avoids the injury bug. He hasn’t been able to stay on the field since taking over for Lloyd Cushenberry III as the starter in 2024, so if the best predictor of future outcomes is past outcomes, the Broncos had better be prepared for Forsyth to see the field at some point in 2026.
The Others
Gavin Ortega and Michael Deiter
Oretega is an undrafted rookie the Broncos brought in, and he has a chance to compete for a practice squad spot. The Broncos brought Deiter in last year after injuries to Wattenberg and Forsyth.
There isn’t a spot for either of these players on the 53-man roster, barring preseason injuries, and it can be tough to keep two centers on the practice squad, even if the players have guard versatility.
The Takeaway
While the Broncos have the starting job locked up with Wattenberg for the next two years, their depth is still questionable. Forsyth hasn’t shown the development you want to see, and will be a free agent after this season.
Denver could find itself looking for a center in the 2027 NFL draft to develop in case Wattenberg’s play drops off, or if he isn’t able to sustain the high level of play he displayed after getting his extension late last year.
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