Finance
The hiring rate trending lower could be a sign of problems to come
A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co
The stock market climbed to all-time highs, with the S&P 500 setting a closing high of 5,762.48 on Monday. For the week, the S&P rose 0.2% to end at 5,751.07. The index is now up 20.6% year to date and up 60.4% from its October 12, 2022 .
On Friday, we learned the U.S. economy created a healthy 254,000 net new jobs in September. While the number confirms that the labor market isn’t falling apart, the pace of net job creation in this economic cycle.
One labor market indicator that’s been drawing more attention lately is the . In addition to measuring those hired into newly created jobs, this metric also captures those hired into existing jobs vacated by quitters, fired workers, and others. It’s been trending lower, and it .
According to the report, employers hired 5.32 million workers in August. While hires far exceed the 1.61 million people laid off during the period, the hiring rate — the number of hires as a percentage of the employed workforce — has fallen to 3.1%, matching the lowest level of the current economic cycle.
As we’ve been discussing , the layoff rate has , trending at around 1%, which is below prepandemic levels. That’s a good thing.
But with , we should be at least a little wary about resting on the economy’s low layoff laurels.
“The hiring rate turns BEFORE layoffs,” Renaissance Macro’s Neil Dutta explained in a research note on Tuesday.
When you think about how well-managed companies operate, this makes sense.
Managers know that a hiring freeze isn’t great news
When the economic tides begin to go out, companies usually don’t go from hiring people one month to immediately sending workers to the unemployment office in the next month.
Unless you’re facing a major business or economic calamity, you probably don’t want to take a hatchet to the headcount. Because what if business activity quickly turns around and you need those workers?
For starters, companies can reduce or freeze hiring, which means not filling new job openings or backfilling roles vacated by former employees. It’s a relatively easy way to keep expenses contained.
If challenges persist, then layoffs could be the next option.
It’s worth mentioning that layoff activity does not need to increase for the unemployment rate to rise. Think about it. Even when the economy is booming, — but many will quickly go back to work if hiring activity is strong. If the same number of people get laid off into an economy with weakening hiring activity, then more jobseekers will not be able to get back to work, and unemployment rises.
Stay vigilant
The JOLTS survey — which provides data on job openings, hiring activity, layoffs, and quits — can be helpful in predicting what’s to come for the major headline economic metrics like net job creation, the unemployment rate, and inflation.
For example, when the posted by employers is high and rising, then you can expect payroll employment to rise and the unemployment rate to fall or stay low. An could be a reflection of worker confidence in a labor market with increasingly competitive wages, which is a .
Today, with but the layoff rate still depressed, the JOLTS metric to watch right now may be the falling hiring rate.
The question now is whether the economy, , will develop in a way that helps stabilize or improve the hiring rate. Friday’s news that the U.S. continues to create jobs at a healthy pace is encouraging.
And to be crystal clear, most metrics point to a strong economy that continues to grow at a healthy clip. In fact, the hiring rate today is higher than where it was during much of the 2009-2020 economic expansion. Our discussion today is not about sounding alarms. However, we should always be mindful of the fact that . And those downturns often come with early warning signs.
Reviewing the macro crosscurrents
There were a few notable data points and macroeconomic developments from last week to consider:
The labor market continues to add jobs. According to the report released Friday, U.S. employers added 254,000 jobs in September. It was the 45th straight month of gains, reaffirming an economy with growing demand for labor.
Total payroll employment is at a record 159.1 million jobs, up 6.8 million from the prepandemic high.
The unemployment rate — that is, the number of workers who identify as unemployed as a percentage of the civilian labor force — declined to 4.1% during the month. While it continues to hover near 50-year lows, the metric is near its highest level since October 2021.
While the major metrics continue to reflect job growth and low unemployment, the labor market isn’t as hot as it used to be.
Wage growth ticks up. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month in September, up from the 0.5% pace in August. On a year-over-year basis, this metric is up 4.0%.
Job openings rise. According to the , employers had 8.04 million job openings in August, up from 7.71 million in July. While this remains slightly above prepandemic levels, it’s from the March 2022 high of 12.18 million.
During the period, there were 7.12 million unemployed people — meaning there were 1.13 job openings per unemployed person. Once a sign of , this telling metric is now below prepandemic levels.
Layoffs remain depressed. Employers laid off 1.61 million people in August. While challenging for all those affected, this figure represents just 1.0% of total employment. This metric continues to trend near pre-pandemic low levels.
Hiring activity, while cooling, continues to be much higher than layoff activity. During the month, employers hired 5.32 million people, down from 5.42 million in July.
People are quitting less. In August, 3.08 million workers quit their jobs. This represents 1.9% of the workforce. It continues to move below the prepandemic trend.
A low quits rate could mean a number of things: more people are satisfied with their job; workers have fewer outside job opportunities; wage growth is cooling; productivity will improve as fewer people are entering new unfamiliar roles.
Job switchers still get better pay. According to , which tracks private payrolls and employs a different methodology than the BLS, annual pay growth in September for people who changed jobs was up 6.6% from a year ago. For those who stayed at their job, pay growth was 4.7%.
Unemployment claims tick higher. rose to to 225,000 during the week ending September 28, down from 219,000 the week prior. This metric continues to be at levels historically associated with economic growth.
Card spending data is holding up. From JPMorgan: “As of 25 Sep 2024, our Chase Consumer Card spending data (unadjusted) was 0.6% above the same day last year. Based on the Chase Consumer Card data through 25 Sep 2024, our estimate of the U.S. Census September control measure of retail sales m/m is 0.13%.“
Gas prices fall. From : “Despite literal and figurative storm clouds here and abroad, the national average for a gallon of gas still fell by three cents from last week to $3.19. The devastation wrought by Hurricane Helene did little to impact gasoline supply, but it crushed demand in affected areas by destroying infrastructure and causing power outages.”
Mortgage rates tick higher. According to , the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.12%, up from 6.08% last week. From Freddie Mac: “The decline in mortgage rates has stalled due to a mix of escalating geopolitical tensions and a rebound in short-term rates that indicate the market’s enthusiasm on rate cuts was premature. Zooming out to the bigger picture, mortgage rates have declined one and a half percentage points over the last 12 months, home price growth is slowing, inventory is increasing, and incomes continue to rise. As a result, the backdrop for homebuyers this fall is improving and should continue through the rest of the year.”
There are in the U.S., of which 86 million are and of which are . Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have , and most of those mortgages before rates surged from 2021 lows. All of this is to say: Most homeowners are not particularly sensitive to movements in home prices or mortgage rates.
Construction spending ticks lower. declined 0.1% to an annual rate of $2.13 trillion in August.
Manufacturing surveys don’t look great. From S&P Global’s : “The September PMI survey brings a whole slew of disappointing economic indicators regarding the health of the US economy. Factories reported the largest monthly drop in production for 15 months in response to a slump in new orders, in turn driving further reductions in employment and input buying as producers scaled back operating capacity.”
Similarly, the ISM’s signaled contraction in the industry.
Keep in mind that during times of perceived stress, soft survey data tends to be more exaggerated than hard data.
Services surveys look great. From S&P Global’s : “U.S. service sector businesses reported a strong end to the third quarter, with output continuing to grow at one of the fastest rates seen over the past two-and-a-half years. After GDP rose at a 3.0% rate in the second quarter, a similar strong performance looks likely in the three months to September. Encouragingly, inflows of new business in the service sector grew at a rate only marginally shy of August’s 27-month high. Lower interest rates have already been reported by survey contributors as having buoyed demand, notably for financial services which, alongside healthcare, remains an especially strong performing sector.”
Near-term GDP growth estimates remain positive. The sees real GDP growth climbing at a 2.5% rate in Q3:
Putting it all together
We continue to get evidence that we are experiencing a where inflation cools to manageable levels .
This comes as the Federal Reserve continues to employ very tight monetary policy in its . More recently, with inflation rates having from their 2022 highs, the Fed has taken a less hawkish stance in — even .
It would take monetary policy as being loose or even neutral, which means we should be prepared for relatively tight financial conditions (e.g., higher interest rates, tighter lending standards, and lower stock valuations) to linger. All this means for the time being, and the risk the into a recession will be relatively elevated.
At the same time, we also know that stocks are discounting mechanisms — meaning that .
Also, it’s important to remember that while recession risks may be elevated, . Unemployed people are , and those with jobs are getting raises.
Similarly, as many corporations . Even as the threat of higher debt servicing costs looms, give corporations room to absorb higher costs.
At this point, any given that the .
And as always, should remember that and are just when you enter the stock market with the aim of generating long-term returns. While , the long-run outlook for stocks .
A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co
Finance
Budget crisis is top concern for MPS leader Cassellius | Opinion
Before seeking a new referendum MPS needs to rebuild trust in the community through completing state audits, putting in place controls to prevent overspending and routine reports to the public.
For MPS Superintendent Brenda Cassellius, who just wrapped up her first year leading Milwaukee’s public school system, her tenure has been punctuated by some very big numbers.
The first is $252 million. That is the amount of new spending voters narrowly approved in an April 2024 referendum to support operations in Wisconsin’s largest school district. Just months later, MPS was rocked by revelations the district was months behind in filing key financial reports to the state, which led to former Superintendent Keith Posley’s resignation.
The second is $1 billion. MPS faces a deferred maintenance backlog exceeding $1 billion. The district’s enrollment has declined 30% over the last 30 years, leaving many schools at less than 50% full. That, in part, is driving a plan to close some schools and to improve others to help lower costs.
The final is $46 million, the deficit MPS was running for the 2024-25 school year, an unexpected shortfall which has led to hundreds of staff layoffs.
Getting the district’s accounting, budgeting and financial reporting back on track has dominated Cassellius’s first year at MPS. In an April 15 interview with the Journal Sentinel’s editorial board, she talked in detail about the challenges putting that into order and progress she sees in restoring transparency into its operations.
State funding and aging buildings create budget nightmares
Cassellius says state needs to keep up its share of school funding
In an interview with the Journal Sentinel editorial board, MPS leader Brenda Cassellius says budgets and buildings are her two top worries.
Cassellius said the on-going budget crisis is her top concern. She said the state’s failure to live up to its share of funding is exacerbating MPS’ budget woes. A group of school districts, teachers and parents filed suit against the state Legislature and its Joint Finance Committee claiming the current state funding system is unconstitutional and prevents schools from meeting students’ educational needs.
Funding for special education is especially critical. About 20% of MPS students have disabilities, almost twice the share of the city’s charter schools, and the average of 14% across Wisconsin.
“What’s keeping me up now, you know, is really just the budget crisis we’re in, with not only this year but multiple years going out without additional state aid, we’ve been not getting funding for what our needs are for our students, and particularly our students with special needs,” she said.
Although the state budget increased special education funding to a 42% reimbursement rate, the actual rate has been about 35%. Another component to the budget headache is the age of MPS buildings. The average age is 85 years-old compared to 45 across the nation.
“We have just kicked this can down the curb or kicked it down the street or whatever you call it for too long. And it’s time that we really take on a serious conversation about the conditions of the learning environments in which we send our children,” she said. “Particularly in Milwaukee Public Schools, we serve the most vulnerable children. Children who have language barriers, children who have disabilities, children in high-concentrated poverty.”
What needs to happen before MPS seeks another referendum
Voters need to be comfortable MPS has made tough budget decisions
In an interview with Journal Sentinel editorial board, Brenda Cassellius said voters will need to see budget improvements before seeking more spending
Cassellius said MPS will definitely need to go back to voters for a new referendum in the future. In addition to the 2024 measure, voters approved an $87 million plan in 2020.
Before doing that, she said the district first needs to rebuild trust in the community through completing required state audits, putting into place controls to prevent overspending and routine reports to the school board and public about finances.
“I don’t think that the voters are going to want us to bring something forward until they feel comfortable that we have done the cleanup that is necessary,” she said. “And we’ve built the trust that we have the sufficient controls in place.”
In the interim, she’s hoping the state will meet its constitutional responsibility to adequately fund public schools.
“What the public expects is you know where the money is, you’re spending it as close as you can to children, you’re getting good on the promise around art, music, and PE, and the things the public said they wanted to fund,” Cassellius said. “And they want their kids to have so that they have a quality education and an excellent education in Milwaukee Public Schools, and that they had the right amount of staff that they actually need. In the school to be safe and to run a good operation.”
Rebuilding finance staff in wake of $46 million in overspending
MPS is rebuilding school finance staff in wake of reporting lapses
In an interview with the Journal Sentinel editorial board April 15, MPS superintendent discusses accountability for district’s financial problems.
The $46 million budget shortfall from the 2024-25 school year started coming into view last fall and was confirmed in mid-January. Cassellius noted that in addition to hiring a new superintendent, MPS also parted ways with its comptroller and CFO.
“We are really rebuilding the personnel and staff of the finance department. That is what’s critical, is having the right people in the right seats doing the work,” she said. “Also critical is making sure that you have the right controls in place. The audit findings found that we did not have proper controls in place and now we have those proper controls in place and when we find things we put new SOPs in place and that is what any business does.”
Identifying that shortfall, though painful, was the result of better accounting.
“Being three years behind in auditing means that you don’t have full sight on your actual revenues and expenditures. And so we have now full sight of our revenues and our expenditures and that’s why we were able to see this new deficit of $46 million,” she said. “And we still continue to work with DPI on those processes to make sure that every month we’re doing monthly to actuals and doing those accounting, reporting that to the board. In a way that is consumable to the public that they can understand.”
Jim Fitzhenry is the Ideas Lab Editor/Director of Community Engagement for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Reach him at jfitzhen@gannett.com or 920-993-7154.
Finance
Psychological shift unfolds in soft Aussie housing market: ‘Vendors feel pressure’
Property markets move in cycles, and with interest rates rising and other pressures like high fuel costs, some markets are clearly slowing down. Many first-home buyers who have only ever seen markets going up are conditioned to think that when purchasing, competition is always intense and decisions need to be made quickly.
In those times, buyers often feel they need to act fast, stretch their budget and secure a property at almost any cost. But things have definitely changed.
In a softer market, the dynamic shifts. Properties take longer to sell, competition thins, and it’s the vendors who begin to feel pressure.
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For buyers who understand how to navigate that change, the balance of power quickly moves in their favour. The opportunity is not simply to buy at a lower price. It is to negotiate from a position of strength.
If that’s you right now, these are the key skills first-home buyers need to take advantage of in softer market conditions.
The most important shift in a soft market is psychological. In a rising market, buyers often feel like they are competing for limited opportunities. In a softer market, the opposite is true. There are more properties available, fewer active buyers and less urgency overall. This gives buyers options.
When buyers understand that they are not competing with multiple parties on every property, their decision-making improves. They are more willing to walk away, compare opportunities and avoid overpaying. Negotiation strength comes from not needing to transact immediately. When that pressure is removed, buyers are able to engage more strategically.
One of the most common mistakes first-home buyers make is continuing to apply strategies that only work in rising markets. Auction urgency is a clear example. In strong markets, auctions often attract multiple bidders and create competitive tension. In softer conditions, properties are more likely to pass in, shifting the process away from a public bidding environment into a private negotiation.
This is where leverage increases.
Private negotiations allow buyers to introduce conditions that protect their position. These may include finance clauses, longer settlement periods or price adjustments based on due diligence. Opportunities that are rarely available in competitive markets become standard in softer ones.
Finance
Finance Committee approves an average increase of University tuition by 3.6 percent
The Board of Visitors Finance Committee met Thursday and approved a 3.6 percent average increase in tuition, a 4.8 percent average increase in meal plan costs and a 5 percent increase in the cost of double-room housing for the 2026-27 school year. The approval was unanimous amongst Board members, though some expressed resistance to the increases before voting in favor of them.
The Committee heard from Jennifer Wagner Davis, executive vice president and chief operating officer, and Donna Price Henry, chancellor of the College at Wise, about reasons for the raise in tuition and rates. According to Davis and Henry, salary increases for professors and legislation passed by the General Assembly contribute to tuition and rates increases.
The Finance Committee, chaired by Vice Rector Victoria Harker, is responsible for the University’s financial affairs and business operations, and the Committee manages the budget, tuition and student fees.
Changes in tuition vary between schools, with the School of Law seeing at most a 5.1 percent increase, the School of Engineering & Applied Science seeing at most a 3.2 percent increase and the College of Arts and Sciences seeing at most a 3.1 percent increase in tuition for the 2026-27 school year.
For the 2026-27 school year at the College at Wise, the Committee also unanimously approved a 2.5 percent average increase in tuition, a 3.8 percent increase in meal plans and a 2 percent increase in the cost of housing.
Last year, the Committee approved a 3 percent average increase in tuition, a 5.5 percent increase in meal plans and a 5.5 percent increase in the cost of housing for the University.
Davis cited increased costs as the primary reason for the approved increase in tuition. She said that the budget that could be passed by the General Assembly for June 30, 2027 through June 30, 2028 could increase professor salaries — University professors receive raises via this process. Davis said that the Senate and House of Delegates have separate proposals dealing with the pay increases that are currently unresolved, with House Bill 30 raising salaries by 2 percent and Senate Bill 30 raising salaries by 3 percent.
Davis said every percent increase in faculty salaries costs the University $15 million annually, and the Commonwealth will increase funding to the University by $1-2 million to help pay for that increase. According to Davis, the most common way to stabilize the budgetary imbalance caused by raised salaries is through tuition raises.
Beyond the increase in salary, Davis cited the minimum wage increase, inflation and Virginia Military Survivors & Dependents Education Program as increased costs to the University. VMSDEP is a program that gives education benefits to spouses and children of disabled veterans or military service members killed, missing in action or taken prisoner. Davis said that the program is “partially unfunded” and could cost the University somewhere between $3.6 to $6 million, depending on how many students qualify for the program.
Davis spoke on other contributing factors to the increase in tuition, specifically collective bargaining — which allows workers to bargain for better wages and working conditions.
“If we look at other institutions or other states that have collective bargaining, [collective bargaining] does put an upward pressure on tuition,” Davis said.
Prior to Thursday’s meeting, the Committee heard the proposal for tuition increases from Davis and Henry April 6 in a Finance Committee tuition workshop with public comment. During the tuition workshop, tuition increases ranged from 3 to 4.5 percent for the University and 2 to 3 percent for the College at Wise. Both increases approved Thursday are within the ranges originally proposed.
Meal plan costs, on average, will be increasing by 4.8 percent in the upcoming academic year. Davis said that the University has been expanding dining options with the opening of the Gaston House and new locations for the Ivy Corridor student housing that is still in progress. She also said that the University has been taking steps to increase the availability of allergen-friendly food options.
Davis shared that the 5 percent cost increase in housing is due to the expansion of student housing in the Ivy Corridor. Davis also said that there will be 3,000 new units added to the Charlottesville housing market by 2027, of which 780 beds will be for University housing. Davis said that she hopes the Ivy Corridor housing would “free up” the city housing supply by having more students live on Grounds.
Board member Amanda Pillion said she was “concerned” about how tuition increases would harm rural families — she said the constant increases in cost could make a University education out of reach for middle-income Virginians.
“This is the second governor I’ve served under. Both times I’ve heard affordability, affordability, affordability,” Pillion said. “We need to really be conscious of the fact that … there is a large group of people that [are middle-income] that these increases [in tuition and fees] are really tough for.”
The Committee also approved a renovation for The Park — an 18-acre recreational hub in North Grounds — which will cost $10 million. As part of the renovation, The Park will include a maintenance facility, storm water systems and a maintenance access route. Davis said the renovation will address safety and security issues for the 200 people that use The Park daily. According to Davis, the University will use $2 million of institutional funds and issue $8 million of debt to fund the renovation.
The Finance Committee will reconvene during the regularly scheduled June Board meetings.
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