Finance
The hiring rate trending lower could be a sign of problems to come
A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co
The stock market climbed to all-time highs, with the S&P 500 setting a closing high of 5,762.48 on Monday. For the week, the S&P rose 0.2% to end at 5,751.07. The index is now up 20.6% year to date and up 60.4% from its October 12, 2022 .
On Friday, we learned the U.S. economy created a healthy 254,000 net new jobs in September. While the number confirms that the labor market isn’t falling apart, the pace of net job creation in this economic cycle.
One labor market indicator that’s been drawing more attention lately is the . In addition to measuring those hired into newly created jobs, this metric also captures those hired into existing jobs vacated by quitters, fired workers, and others. It’s been trending lower, and it .
According to the report, employers hired 5.32 million workers in August. While hires far exceed the 1.61 million people laid off during the period, the hiring rate — the number of hires as a percentage of the employed workforce — has fallen to 3.1%, matching the lowest level of the current economic cycle.
As we’ve been discussing , the layoff rate has , trending at around 1%, which is below prepandemic levels. That’s a good thing.
But with , we should be at least a little wary about resting on the economy’s low layoff laurels.
“The hiring rate turns BEFORE layoffs,” Renaissance Macro’s Neil Dutta explained in a research note on Tuesday.
When you think about how well-managed companies operate, this makes sense.
Managers know that a hiring freeze isn’t great news
When the economic tides begin to go out, companies usually don’t go from hiring people one month to immediately sending workers to the unemployment office in the next month.
Unless you’re facing a major business or economic calamity, you probably don’t want to take a hatchet to the headcount. Because what if business activity quickly turns around and you need those workers?
For starters, companies can reduce or freeze hiring, which means not filling new job openings or backfilling roles vacated by former employees. It’s a relatively easy way to keep expenses contained.
If challenges persist, then layoffs could be the next option.
It’s worth mentioning that layoff activity does not need to increase for the unemployment rate to rise. Think about it. Even when the economy is booming, — but many will quickly go back to work if hiring activity is strong. If the same number of people get laid off into an economy with weakening hiring activity, then more jobseekers will not be able to get back to work, and unemployment rises.
Stay vigilant
The JOLTS survey — which provides data on job openings, hiring activity, layoffs, and quits — can be helpful in predicting what’s to come for the major headline economic metrics like net job creation, the unemployment rate, and inflation.
For example, when the posted by employers is high and rising, then you can expect payroll employment to rise and the unemployment rate to fall or stay low. An could be a reflection of worker confidence in a labor market with increasingly competitive wages, which is a .
Today, with but the layoff rate still depressed, the JOLTS metric to watch right now may be the falling hiring rate.
The question now is whether the economy, , will develop in a way that helps stabilize or improve the hiring rate. Friday’s news that the U.S. continues to create jobs at a healthy pace is encouraging.
And to be crystal clear, most metrics point to a strong economy that continues to grow at a healthy clip. In fact, the hiring rate today is higher than where it was during much of the 2009-2020 economic expansion. Our discussion today is not about sounding alarms. However, we should always be mindful of the fact that . And those downturns often come with early warning signs.
Reviewing the macro crosscurrents
There were a few notable data points and macroeconomic developments from last week to consider:
The labor market continues to add jobs. According to the report released Friday, U.S. employers added 254,000 jobs in September. It was the 45th straight month of gains, reaffirming an economy with growing demand for labor.
Total payroll employment is at a record 159.1 million jobs, up 6.8 million from the prepandemic high.
The unemployment rate — that is, the number of workers who identify as unemployed as a percentage of the civilian labor force — declined to 4.1% during the month. While it continues to hover near 50-year lows, the metric is near its highest level since October 2021.
While the major metrics continue to reflect job growth and low unemployment, the labor market isn’t as hot as it used to be.
Wage growth ticks up. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-over-month in September, up from the 0.5% pace in August. On a year-over-year basis, this metric is up 4.0%.
Job openings rise. According to the , employers had 8.04 million job openings in August, up from 7.71 million in July. While this remains slightly above prepandemic levels, it’s from the March 2022 high of 12.18 million.
During the period, there were 7.12 million unemployed people — meaning there were 1.13 job openings per unemployed person. Once a sign of , this telling metric is now below prepandemic levels.
Layoffs remain depressed. Employers laid off 1.61 million people in August. While challenging for all those affected, this figure represents just 1.0% of total employment. This metric continues to trend near pre-pandemic low levels.
Hiring activity, while cooling, continues to be much higher than layoff activity. During the month, employers hired 5.32 million people, down from 5.42 million in July.
People are quitting less. In August, 3.08 million workers quit their jobs. This represents 1.9% of the workforce. It continues to move below the prepandemic trend.
A low quits rate could mean a number of things: more people are satisfied with their job; workers have fewer outside job opportunities; wage growth is cooling; productivity will improve as fewer people are entering new unfamiliar roles.
Job switchers still get better pay. According to , which tracks private payrolls and employs a different methodology than the BLS, annual pay growth in September for people who changed jobs was up 6.6% from a year ago. For those who stayed at their job, pay growth was 4.7%.
Unemployment claims tick higher. rose to to 225,000 during the week ending September 28, down from 219,000 the week prior. This metric continues to be at levels historically associated with economic growth.
Card spending data is holding up. From JPMorgan: “As of 25 Sep 2024, our Chase Consumer Card spending data (unadjusted) was 0.6% above the same day last year. Based on the Chase Consumer Card data through 25 Sep 2024, our estimate of the U.S. Census September control measure of retail sales m/m is 0.13%.“
Gas prices fall. From : “Despite literal and figurative storm clouds here and abroad, the national average for a gallon of gas still fell by three cents from last week to $3.19. The devastation wrought by Hurricane Helene did little to impact gasoline supply, but it crushed demand in affected areas by destroying infrastructure and causing power outages.”
Mortgage rates tick higher. According to , the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.12%, up from 6.08% last week. From Freddie Mac: “The decline in mortgage rates has stalled due to a mix of escalating geopolitical tensions and a rebound in short-term rates that indicate the market’s enthusiasm on rate cuts was premature. Zooming out to the bigger picture, mortgage rates have declined one and a half percentage points over the last 12 months, home price growth is slowing, inventory is increasing, and incomes continue to rise. As a result, the backdrop for homebuyers this fall is improving and should continue through the rest of the year.”
There are in the U.S., of which 86 million are and of which are . Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have , and most of those mortgages before rates surged from 2021 lows. All of this is to say: Most homeowners are not particularly sensitive to movements in home prices or mortgage rates.
Construction spending ticks lower. declined 0.1% to an annual rate of $2.13 trillion in August.
Manufacturing surveys don’t look great. From S&P Global’s : “The September PMI survey brings a whole slew of disappointing economic indicators regarding the health of the US economy. Factories reported the largest monthly drop in production for 15 months in response to a slump in new orders, in turn driving further reductions in employment and input buying as producers scaled back operating capacity.”
Similarly, the ISM’s signaled contraction in the industry.
Keep in mind that during times of perceived stress, soft survey data tends to be more exaggerated than hard data.
Services surveys look great. From S&P Global’s : “U.S. service sector businesses reported a strong end to the third quarter, with output continuing to grow at one of the fastest rates seen over the past two-and-a-half years. After GDP rose at a 3.0% rate in the second quarter, a similar strong performance looks likely in the three months to September. Encouragingly, inflows of new business in the service sector grew at a rate only marginally shy of August’s 27-month high. Lower interest rates have already been reported by survey contributors as having buoyed demand, notably for financial services which, alongside healthcare, remains an especially strong performing sector.”
Near-term GDP growth estimates remain positive. The sees real GDP growth climbing at a 2.5% rate in Q3:
Putting it all together
We continue to get evidence that we are experiencing a where inflation cools to manageable levels .
This comes as the Federal Reserve continues to employ very tight monetary policy in its . More recently, with inflation rates having from their 2022 highs, the Fed has taken a less hawkish stance in — even .
It would take monetary policy as being loose or even neutral, which means we should be prepared for relatively tight financial conditions (e.g., higher interest rates, tighter lending standards, and lower stock valuations) to linger. All this means for the time being, and the risk the into a recession will be relatively elevated.
At the same time, we also know that stocks are discounting mechanisms — meaning that .
Also, it’s important to remember that while recession risks may be elevated, . Unemployed people are , and those with jobs are getting raises.
Similarly, as many corporations . Even as the threat of higher debt servicing costs looms, give corporations room to absorb higher costs.
At this point, any given that the .
And as always, should remember that and are just when you enter the stock market with the aim of generating long-term returns. While , the long-run outlook for stocks .
A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co
Finance
When making travel plans, timing and financing are major considerations
For the true travel fan, there’s often a built-in conflict on how best to plan for your next adventure.
On the one hand, the world awaits. Spin the globe, cover your eyes and point. Or, throw a dart at the map! Then it’s time to dig in and research your next dream destination.
On the other hand, getting the best bargain can be a last-minute proposition. There may be a fare sale today, but not tomorrow. How does that mash up with your bicycle tour in Italy? Or your friend’s wedding in Hawaii?
Spreading out all the options on the table can be daunting. It’s a bit like taking a sip from the fire hose. And we all have varying degrees of tolerance for changing prices, tiny seats and geopolitical uncertainty.
So let’s take a snapshot of what’s happening now, knowing you won’t likely drink from the same river, or fire hose, twice.
Since most of today’s snapshots are on the phone, there are some handy settings: You can zoom in for a closer look at that fruit and cheese platter, frame it up nicely for a good shot of your seatmate, or look out the window and get a nice view from 30,000 feet.
Fares we love. There are just a few fares to zoom in on right now.
Anchorage-Chicago. Three airlines will offer nonstop flights this summer: Alaska, United and American. Alaska and United fly the route year-round. There are just a couple of months where travelers have to stop in Denver or Seattle on the way. Right now, the Basic price is $349 round-trip. United has the least-expensive Main price of $429 round-trip. Alaska charges more: $449-$469 round-trip.
The rate to Chicago is steady throughout the summer, as long as you’re open to flying on other airlines, including Delta and now Southwest, starting May 15.
Anchorage-Dallas. Choose from four airlines with competitive prices. United and Delta offer great rates starting on March 30, for travel all summer and into the fall for $331 round-trip in basic economy. Remember: Basic economy means you’ll be sitting in the middle seat back by the potty. There are few, if any, advance seat assignments permitted and you’re the last to board. Don’t expect to accrue many frequent flyer points. Alaska will give you 30%. Delta and American offer none. United is axing MileagePlus points for basic travelers soon.
Delta and United offer the chance to pay $100 more for pre-reserved seats and mileage credit. Of course, they may charge you more for a nicer seat on the plane. But that’s another story.
American Airlines charges a little bit more, about $20 more for a round-trip, to fly nonstop. It’s a nice flight.
Anchorage-Albuquerque. Delta is targeting this route with a nice rate: $281 round-trip in Basic or $381 in Main. But it’s just between May 23 and June 29. Why? Well, it lines up nicely with Southwest’s launch on May 15. Who knows why airlines cut their fares during a traditionally busy season? It’s just a hunch.
Looking at airfares more broadly, there are a few more bargain rates out there, but most only go through May 20. Airlines are hoping for a robust summer — so prices go up after that.
For example, between March 29 and May 20, Alaska Air offers a nonstop from Anchorage to Los Angeles for $257 round-trip in basic. For pre-assigned seats and full mileage credit, the main price is $337 round-trip. Prices go up to $437 round-trip in the summer.
The view from 30,000 feet is pretty clear, although past performance is no guarantee of future results. Several carriers, including American, Delta, United, Southwest and Alaska are adding flights for the summer. There will be robust competition, which means lower fares. Just last week, Alaska Air dropped the price from Anchorage to Seattle to $210 round-trip. That rate is gone, but others will come along.
Charge it. Banks own the airlines by virtue of their popular credit cards. Do they own you, too?
Sifting through the various credit card offers and bonus points emails, it’s easy to forget that banks, not travelers, are the airlines’ biggest customers. At a Bank of America conference last year, Alaska Airlines reported it receives about 15% of its total revenue from its loyalty plan. That adds up to more than 1.7 billion in 2024. Delta has a similar deal with American Express, which paid the airline about $8.2 billion last year.
Think about that the next time the flight attendants are handing out credit card applications in the aisle.
Zooming in, if you’re going to play the Atmos loyalty game on Alaska Airlines, you have to have an Alaska Airlines credit card from Bank of America.
I carry the plain-old Alaska Air card. I used to have two of them, primarily for the $99 companion fare. That’s still a compelling offer. But to get that benefit, you have to charge it on an Alaska Airlines Visa card.
So the question is: Is it worth it to pay $395 per year for the new Summit Visa card from Bank of America?
If you use your credit card for your business or if you regularly charge thousands of dollars every month, the Summit card may be the card for you.
One of the foundational benefits is for every $2 you charge, you earn one status point toward your next elite tier, such as titanium. It’s possible to charge your way to the top tier of the frequent flyer ladder without ever stepping on a plane. If that’s your level of charge-card use, then the Summit is for you. For the lesser Ascent card like mine, you earn one status point for every $3 spent.
For a little wider view, consider that your other travel costs, including accommodations, can hit your budget a lot harder than an airline ticket. It’s one reason I carry a flexible spend credit card in addition to my Alaska Airlines card. Here’s a snapshot of some popular options:
1. Bilt Rewards. I finally signed up for a Bilt account, although I haven’t yet received my card. There are two big benefits with Bilt: You can charge your rent and transfer points to Alaska Airlines. There also is a scheme to charge your mortgage, but it’s more convoluted. But the charge-your-rent option is a stand-alone gold star for the Bilt program, even if you don’t fly Alaska Airlines.
In addition to the link with Alaska Airlines, Bilt points transfer to other oneworld carriers like British, Japan Airlines and Qatar Air. Hotel partners include Hyatt, my favorite, and Hilton. A big bonus comes with the “Obsidian” card, $95 per year: three points for every dollar spent on groceries.
But there’s also a Bilt card with no annual fee. And there are no extra fees incurred when you charge your rent.
2. American Express. If you fly on Delta, the American Express card is a natural choice.
The two companies really are joined at the hip. The last American Express card I had was a Delta “Gold” card, which included a 70,000-point signup bonus. Cardholders get a free checked bag, although Delta offers two free checked bags for SkyMiles members who live in Alaska, and 15% off award tickets.
The Delta card is free for the first year, then $150 per year thereafter.
There is a dizzying array of American Express cards available, including some with no annual fee. But with Delta there is a narrowed-down selection, including one that’s more than $800 per year. That includes lounge access and some other benefits, including a companion pass.
American Express cardholders also can transfer their points to Hilton and Bonvoy as well as to 15 other airlines.
Capital One offers the Venture X card, which offers cardholders 75,000 points plus a $300 travel credit at their in-house travel service. The cost is $395 per year. Get the slimmed-down Venture card for just $95 per year. You still can earn the 75,000 bonus points after spending $4,000 in the first three months. Plus, there’s a $250 credit with Capital One Travel.
Airline partners include EMirates, Singapore Air, Japan Air and EVA Air, from Taiwan. Hotel partners include Hilton and Marriott.
I’ve carried several Chase cards for years. Right now I have the Chase Sapphire Preferred card, for which I received 80,000 bonus points. But that was several years ago. More recently, I got the Chase-affiliated Ink Business Cash card to harvest a 90,000 point bonus. Previously, I carried the Chase Sapphire Reserve. I got a 100,000 point bonus for that. But I dropped that card when the fee went up to $795 per year.
Stacking the cards like that — getting more than one — has helped me to get more bonus points, both for American Express and for Chase.
The best value for Chase points that I’ve found is for Hyatt Hotels. Right now, it’s the best redemption ration, but that can change. Chase also allows for transfers to Emirates, United, Singapore Air and Southwest, among others. The Chase travel portal is managed by Expedia, so you can redeem points for other hotels at a lower redemption rate.
The long view: All airline mileage plans are now credit card loyalty plans. Terms and conditions change, along with signup bonuses and other features of the cards. Last year, Chase dropped its airport restaurant feature, which offered $29 per person at select restaurants in Los Angeles, Seattle and Portland. A couple of years ago, the Priority Pass affiliated with Chase dropped the Alaska Airlines lounges as a partner.
It takes some time and effort to keep up with the programs and get the best value. But airline credit card plans are here to stay, even if the frequent-flyer programs are watered down year after year.
Finance
Lawmakers target ‘free money’ home equity finance model
Key points:
- Pennsylvania lawmakers are considering a bill that would classify home equity investments (HEIs) and shared equity contracts as residential mortgages.
- Industry leaders have mobilized through a newly formed trade group to influence how HEIs are regulated.
- The outcome could reshape underwriting standards, return structures and capital markets strategy for HEI providers.
A fast-growing home equity financing model that promises homeowners cash without monthly payments is facing mounting scrutiny from state lawmakers — and the industry behind it is mobilizing to shape the outcome.
In Pennsylvania, House Bill 2120 would classify shared equity contracts — often marketed as home equity investments (HEIs), shared appreciation agreements or home equity agreements — as residential mortgages under state law.
While the proposal is still in committee, the debate unfolding in Harrisburg reflects a broader national effort to determine whether these products are truly a new category of equity-based investment — or if they function as mortgages and belong under existing consumer lending laws.
A classification fight over home equity capture
HB 2120 would amend Pennsylvania’s Loan Interest and Protection Law by explicitly including shared appreciation agreements in the residential mortgage definition. If passed, shared equity contracts would be subject to the same interest caps, licensing standards and consumer protections that apply to traditional mortgage lending.
The legislation was introduced by Rep. Arvind Venkat after constituent Wendy Gilch — a fellow with the consumer watchdog Consumer Policy Center — brought concerns to his office. Gilch has since worked with Venkat as a partner in shaping the proposal.
Gilch initially began examining the products after seeing advertisements describe them as offering cash with “no debt,” “no interest” and “no monthly payments.”
“It sounds like free money,” she said. “But in many cases, you’re giving up a growing share of your home’s equity over time.”
Breaking down the debate
Shared equity providers (SEPs) argue that their products are not loans. Instead of charging interest or requiring monthly payments, companies provide homeowners with a lump sum in exchange for a share of the home’s future appreciation, which is typically repaid when the home is sold or refinanced.
The Coalition for Home Equity Partnership (CHEP) — an industry-led group founded in 2025 by Hometap, Point and Unlock — emphasizes that shared equity products have zero monthly payments or interest, no minimum income requirements and no personal liability if a home’s value declines.
Venkat, however, argues that the mechanics look familiar and argues that “transactions secured by homes should include transparency and consumer protections” — especially since, for many many Americans, their home is their most valuable asset.
“These agreements involve appraisals, liens, closing costs and defined repayment triggers,” he said. “If it looks like a mortgage and functions like a mortgage, it should be treated like one.”
The bill sits within Pennsylvania’s anti-usury framework, which caps returns on home-secured lending in the mid-single digits. Venkat said he’s been told by industry representatives that they require returns approaching 18-20% to make the model viable — particularly if contracts are later resold to outside investors. According to CHEP, its members provide scenario-based disclosures showing potential outcomes under varying assumptions, with the final cost depending on future home values and term length.
In a statement shared with Real Estate News, CHEP President Cliff Andrews said the group supports comprehensive regulation of shared equity products but argues that automatically classifying them as mortgages applies a framework “that was never designed for, and cannot meaningfully be applied to, equity-based financing instruments.”
As currently drafted, HB 2120 would function as a “de facto ban” on shared equity products in Pennsylvania, Andrews added.
Real Estate News also reached out to Unison, a major vendor in the space, for comment on HB 2120. Hometap and Unlock deferred to CHEP when reached for comment.
A growing regulatory patchwork
Pennsylvania is not alone in seeking to legislate regulations around HEIs. Maryland, Illinois and Connecticut have also taken steps to clarify that certain home equity option agreements fall under mortgage lending statutes and licensing requirements.
In Washington state, litigation over whether a shared equity contract qualified as a reverse mortgage reached the Ninth Circuit before the case was settled and the opinion vacated. Maine and Oregon have considered similar proposals, while Massachusetts has pursued enforcement action against at least one provider in connection with home equity investment practices.
Taken together, these developments suggest a state-by-state regulatory patchwork could emerge in the absence of a uniform federal framework.
The push for homeowner protections
The debate over HEIs arrives amid elevated interest rates and reduced refinancing activity — conditions that have increased demand for alternative equity-access products.
But regulators appear increasingly focused on classification — specifically whether the absence of monthly payments and traditional interest charges changes the legal character of a contract secured by a lien on a home.
Gilch argues that classification is central to consumer clarity. “If it’s secured by your home and you have to settle up when you sell or refinance, homeowners should have the same protections they expect with any other home-based transaction,” she said.
Lessons from prior home equity controversies
For industry leaders, the regulatory scrutiny may feel familiar. In recent years, unconventional home equity models have drawn enforcement actions and litigation once questions surfaced around contract structure, title encumbrances or consumer understanding.
MV Realty, which offered upfront payments in exchange for long-term listing agreements, faced regulatory action in multiple states over how those agreements were recorded and disclosed. EasyKnock, which structured sale-leaseback transactions aimed at unlocking home equity, abruptly shuttered operations in late 2024 following litigation and mounting regulatory pressure.
Shared equity investment contracts differ structurally from both models, but those episodes underscore a broader pattern: novel housing finance products can scale quickly in tight credit cycles. Just as quickly, these home equity models encounter regulatory intervention once policymakers begin examining how they fit within existing law — and the formation of CHEP signals that SEPs recognize the stakes.
For real estate executives and housing finance leaders, the outcome of the classification fight may prove consequential. If shared equity contracts are treated as mortgages in more states, underwriting standards, return structures and secondary market economics could shift.
If lawmakers instead carve out a distinct regulatory category, the model may retain more flexibility — but face ongoing state-by-state negotiation.
Finance
Cornell Administrator Warren Petrofsky Named FAS Finance Dean | News | The Harvard Crimson
Cornell University administrator Warren Petrofsky will serve as the Faculty of Arts and Sciences’ new dean of administration and finance, charged with spearheading efforts to shore up the school’s finances as it faces a hefty budget deficit.
Petrofsky’s appointment, announced in a Friday email from FAS Dean Hopi E. Hoekstra to FAS affiliates, will begin April 20 — nearly a year after former FAS dean of administration and finance Scott A. Jordan stepped down. Petrofsky will replace interim dean Mary Ann Bradley, who helped shape the early stages of FAS cost-cutting initiatives.
Petrofsky currently serves as associate dean of administration at Cornell University’s College of Arts and Sciences.
As dean, he oversaw a budget cut of nearly $11 million to the institution’s College of Arts and Sciences after the federal government slashed at least $250 million in stop-work orders and frozen grants, according to the Cornell Daily Sun.
He also serves on a work group established in November 2025 to streamline the school’s administrative systems.
Earlier, at the University of Pennsylvania, Petrofsky managed capital initiatives and organizational redesigns in a number of administrative roles.
Petrofsky is poised to lead similar efforts at the FAS, which relaunched its Resources Committee in spring 2025 and created a committee to consolidate staff positions amid massive federal funding cuts.
As part of its planning process, the committee has quietly brought on external help. Over several months, consultants from McKinsey & Company have been interviewing dozens of administrators and staff across the FAS.
Petrofsky will also likely have a hand in other cost-cutting measures across the FAS, which is facing a $365 million budget deficit. The school has already announced it will keep spending flat for the 2026 fiscal year, and it has dramatically reduced Ph.D. admissions.
In her email, Hoekstra praised Petrofsky’s performance across his career.
“Warren has emphasized transparency, clarity in communication, and investment in staff development,” she wrote. “He approaches change with steadiness and purpose, and with deep respect for the mission that unites our faculty, researchers, staff, and students. I am confident that he will be a strong partner to me and to our community.”
—Staff writer Amann S. Mahajan can be reached at [email protected] and on Signal at amannsm.38. Follow her on X @amannmahajan.
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