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Illustration by Candice Curtis / Eclipse Sportswire / Coady Media

The road to Kentucky Derby 2025 draws even closer to Churchill Downs Saturday with two of the most productive preps for finding Derby winners: the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby. These million-dollar races have combined to produce 31 Kentucky Derby winners since 1953.

After these races, the Kentucky Derby starting gate will be more than half full according to math and history. 

The first of these premiere preps is the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park. Ten 3-year-old colts have been entered for the chance at 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points and the $1 million purse. Post time for the Florida Derby is scheduled for 6:42 p.m. EDT.

The 8-5 morning line favorite is Sovereignty, the Fountain of Youth (G2) winner trained by Bill Mott. The Into Mischief colt unveiled a powerful closing move in his juvenile season that he proved still has a dangerous kick in his first start as a 3-year-old. Jockey Manny Franco replaces his regular rider, Junior Alvarado, after he suffered a shoulder injury last week. 

Bob Baffert ships Madaket Road to Gulfstream for a rare Florida appearance on the Derby trail. Madaket Road was last seen finishing behind Coal Battle in the Rebel (G2) and opts for this spot instead of the Arkansas Derby for the son of Quality Road. Original rider Tyler Gaffalione also suffered an injury this week, so Mike Smith will also ship in to take the last-minute ride. 

Brad Cox sends Holy Bull (G2) runner-up Tappan Street back into the fray after skipping the Fountain of Youth. He got a wide trip in the Holy Bull, which was only his second lifetime start, but closed well enough to show his talent. 

Disruptor steps up into stakes company and stretches out in distance in his third career start for Todd Pletcher. The $1.5 million Gun Runner colt ran away from the field in his last start at Gulfstream, a seven-furlong maiden special weight.

Get to know all of the Florida Derby contenders with Matt Shifman, who also provides odds and tips. 

TV coverage of both the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby will be on CNBC and streaming on Peacock beginning at 6 p.m. EDT. FS2 will broadcast the Arkansas Derby and Oaklawn undercard stakes as part of America’s Day at the Races beginning at 4 p.m. EDT. Finally, FanDuel TV will have all of the stakes action from Gulfstream and Oaklawn as part of its daily racing coverage.

Free Stakes PPs • Gulfstream entries • Track trends  

Here are the top lifetime speed figures for the Florida Derby entrants.

No.	Horse	Beyer*	TFUS*	Brisnet	HRN
1	Neoequos	91	116	101	117
2	Cool Intentions	77	98	96	110
3	Smoken Boy	68	92	75	90
4	Disruptor	92	115	94	117
5	Indecisiveness	79	102	84	105
6	Jimmy’s Dailys	85	106	89	110
7	Enterdadragon	76	104	91	111
8	Madaket Road	90	115	96	116
9	Tappan Street	87	116	99	118
10	Sovereignty	95	113	99	117

*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are presented courtesy of Daily Racing Form.

Pace makes the race

TimeformUS projects a swift, pressured pace in the Florida Derby, contested by Neoequos from the rail, Disruptor and Madaket Road. Madaket Road will be blinkers-off for this race, but he will still be forwardly-placed from his outside-ish post. Jimmy’s Dailys has run best when quick out of the gate so he, too will make for the lead.

Tucking in behind the pacesetters will be Cool Intentions and Tappan Street, whose rider Luis Saez will most likely follow Madaket Road into an outside pressing spot. Smoken Boy and Indecisivness will take up mid-pack spots early. Sovereignty and Enterdadragon will settle in at the back of the pack, ready to unfurl closing moves. Madaket Road can best take advantage of the speed-friendly Gulfstream Park surface as he has experience on the notoriously fast Santa Anita strip. Tappan Street can improve on his Holy Bull performance and is fresh off a 56-day layoff. Sovereignty will be closing best and just has to pick off the tiring leaders.

HRN tips & best bets

HRN‘s Ed DeRosa thinks the favorite Sovereignty is tough, but he is taking a risk and keying a long shot in the Florida Derby.

“Enterdadragon might look short on class, but his numbers are comparable with others behind Sovereignty,” Ed said. “His lone dirt start was a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, where he rushed up after an awkward start. I’ll gamble on this one.”

Disruptor is one of three horses Todd Pletcher hopes will make it to the Kentucky Derby, though time is running out for one of his 3-year-olds to make the case for a rose run. 

Mike Shutty, the creator of Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener, has identified a top win and top value play with a morning line of 5-1.

“Luis Saez will secure the best position in this race with Tappan Street sitting just 2 lengths off the pace in the early going and then just a length back turning for home, getting the first jump on Sovereignty as he gets by all the pace leaders,” he said.

Get his take on Sovereignty, Madaket Road, and the Florida Derby undercard stakes in the Super Screener. It’s just $97 for weekly analysis and it includes the entire Triple Crown.

In this week’s Ron Flatter Racing Pod, David Levitch, the Paddock Prince, focuses on the Kentucky Derby preps as well as some tips for the Kentucky Oaks qualifiers this week. Also on the podcast is a heartfelt tribute to the late San Diego Union-Tribune columnist Bryce Miller. 

Head-to-Head handicapping panelists Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis agree on three horses, but that’s where their opinions split for their final picks. 

Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman recap Sierra Leone’s upset defeat in the New Orleans Classic as well as give their plays for the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby.

No.	Silks	Horse / Sire	Rating	Trainer / Jockey	Last start	Morn. line
1		Neoequos Neolithic	7.04	Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Edgard J. Zayas Advertisement	3rd, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2	10-1
Last race		3rd, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2
2		Cool Intentions Authentic	5.87	Jorge Delgado Javier J. Castellano	5th, 2025 Mucho Macho Man LS	20-1
Last race		5th, 2025 Mucho Macho Man LS
3		Smoken Boy Catholic Boy	0.00	Cheryl Winebaugh	6th, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)	30-1
Last race		6th, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)
4		Disruptor Gun Runner	5.92	Todd A. Pletcher Irad Ortiz, Jr.	1st, GP MSW (3/1/25-R6)	4-1
Last race		1st, GP MSW (3/1/25-R6)
5		Indecisiveness Decisive Moment	5.45	Ruben Sierra Advertisement Jorge Ruiz	3rd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)	30-1
Last race		3rd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)
6		Jimmy’s Dailys Vekoma	5.34	Brian A. Lynch Joel Rosario	2nd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)	12-1
Last race		2nd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)
7		Enterdadragon Outwork	5.12	Jose Francisco D’Angelo Dylan Davis Advertisement	2nd, 2025 Colonel Liam LS	30-1
Last race		2nd, 2025 Colonel Liam LS
8		Madaket Road Quality Road	6.42	Bob Baffert Mike E. Smith	2nd, 2025 Rebel G2	7-2
Last race		2nd, 2025 Rebel G2
9		Tappan Street Into Mischief	6.39	Brad H. Cox Luis Saez	2nd, 2025 Holy Bull G3	5-1
Last race		2nd, 2025 Holy Bull G3
10		Sovereignty Into Mischief	7.36	William I. Mott Advertisement Manuel Franco	1st, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2	8-5
Last race		1st, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2

The Grade 1, 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby (G1) is the richest race run at Oaklawn, with a $1.5 million purse. It offers 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points to the top five finishers. This year’s race has drawn nine 3-year-old colts, including Rebel (G2) winner Coal Battle. Post time for the Arkansas Derby is scheduled for 7:48 p.m. EDT.

The buzz horse and morning-line favorite at 7-2 in the Arkansas Derby is Bob Baffert’s Cornucopian, a son of Into Mischief who steps up big time in his second career start. Cornucopian sizzled in his maiden victory at Oaklawn on Rebel day going six furlongs. This Prospect Watch standout is a half-sibling to Grade 1 winner Guarana and was a $1.1 million Keeneland yearling purchase.

7-5 second choice Coal Battle comes into this off a four-race, all-stakes win streak. He ran down Madaket Road in the Rebel to clinch his spot in the Kentucky Derby, so a win is not required here but will be highly anticipated for the Lonnie Briley trainee. 

Four other horses from the Rebel Stakes return here, including Southwest winner Speed King and Sandman, who looks for a win after hitting the board in each of his last two stakes starts.

Matt Shifman has full-field stats and analysis for the Arkansas Derby. 

Here are the top speed figures for the Arkansas Derby entrants.

No.	Horse	Beyer*	TFUS*	Brisnet	HRN
1	Brereton’s Baytown	72	96	88	101
2	First Division	82	97	85	106
3	Publisher	92	110	93	112
4	Bestfriend Rocket	82	94	85	106
5	Speed King	93	120	92	113
6	Sandman	92	114	95	119
7	Monet’s Magic	84	109	90	106
8	Coal Battle	91	114	98	118
9	Cornucopian	101	120	100	128

*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are presented courtesy of Daily Racing Form.

Pace makes the race

The Arkansas Derby projects to have an average pace according to TimeformUS, with Cornucopian comfortably in front. Speed King also should be fast early, but just not quite enough to catch the Baffert horse. Coal Battle and Bestfriend Rocket look to press just behind the speed. Publisher, who has yet to win a race in six starts, gets blinkers for this race. Look for him to be more forwardly-placed early, possibly even pressing with Coal Battle. Brereton’s Baytown and Monet’s Magic will settle in mid-pack. First Division and Sandman will trail the field.

Several colts will be ready to unleash a late run here, but Cornucopian will have the advantage as speed of the speed. With John Velazquez in the saddle, any pressure from Speed King will be neutralized before a pace meltdown can develop.

HRN handicappers’ best bets

Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis decide whether Coal Battle can pass Cornucopian in the Arkansas Derby.

Chip Gerhke doesn’t buy the hype on Cornucopian for in his 3-year-old division rankings.

Ed DeRosa thinks Bob Baffert holds all the cards in the Arkansas Derby, but will they be a straight flush?

No.	Silks	Horse / Sire	Rating	Trainer / Jockey	Last start	Morn. line
1		Brereton’s Baytown Upstart	0.00	Paul McEntee Marshall Mendez	8th, 2025 Rebel G2	30-1
Last race		8th, 2025 Rebel G2
2		First Division Omaha Beach	0.00	Kenneth G. McPeek Advertisement Brian J. Hernandez, Jr.	2nd, OP Alw OC (3/2/25-R9)	20-1
Last race		2nd, OP Alw OC (3/2/25-R9)
3		Publisher American Pharoah	5.34	Steven M. Asmussen Flavien Prat	4th, 2025 Rebel G2	6-1
Last race		4th, 2025 Rebel G2
4		Bestfriend Rocket Curlin	0.00	D. Wayne Lukas Nik Juarez Advertisement	1st, OP Alw OC (3/2/25-R9)	20-1
Last race		1st, OP AlwOC (3/2/25-R9)
5		Speed King Volatile	6.48	Ron Moquett Rafael Bejarano	10th, 2025 Rebel G2	15-1
Last race		10th, 2025 Rebel G2
6		Sandman Tapit	6.63	Mark E. Casse Jose L. Ortiz	3rd, 2025 Rebel G2	3-1
Last race		3rd, 2025 Rebel G2
7		Monet’s Magic Good Magic	5.84	Ben Colebrook Advertisement Luan Machado	5th, 2025 Southwest G3	20-1
Last race		5th, 2025 Southwest G3
8		Coal Battle Coal Front	7.21	Lonnie Briley Juan P. Vargas	1st, 2025 Rebel G2	7-2
Last race		1st, 2025 Rebel G2
9		Cornucopian Into Mischief	4.80	Bob Baffert John R. Velazquez Advertisement	1st, OP MSW (2/23/25-R5)	7-5
Last race		1st, OP MSW (2/23/25-R5)