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The Fed just convinced markets it's not behind the curve

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The Fed just convinced markets it's not behind the curve

The Federal Reserve’s half-percentage-point interest rate cut could have shaken markets had it exacerbated investor fears that the central bank was preparing for an economic slowdown.

Instead, Fed Chair Powell appears to have convinced investors the central bank is cutting rates to keep the economy on track, not to save it. Stocks surged Thursday following Powell’s press conference after the rate cut decision.

“Chair Powell had one job at his post-FOMC press conference today: convince markets that a 50 bp cut was consistent with a thoughtful policy adjustment rather than a sign that the Fed is worried it is behind the curve,” DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a note to clients Wednesday night. “He accomplished that goal … This is consistent with prior mid-cycle markets, where equities can continue to rally.”

Investors had been increasingly expecting a soft landing, where the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle ends with inflation falling to the 2% target without a significant downturn in the economy. On Wednesday, Chair Powell reiterated that scenario remains in play.

Powell remarked the US economy is “in good shape.” He pointed out that risks to further cooling in the labor market have risen. But the Fed is cutting with that in mind.

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“The labor market is actually in solid condition,” he said. “And our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there.”

To Colas, the comments change little about the market narrative.

“[The Fed] decision doesn’t actually change very much about the current market setup,” Colas wrote. “We know that rates are coming down. We know that the US economy is in reasonably good shape. We know the labor market is cooling but not yet tipping over. While the Fed may have been somewhat clumsy in how it conditioned markets to expect today’s decision, that’s now in the past.”

In the day following Chair Powell’s press conference, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rushed to new record highs, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose over 2%.

Markets are showing familiar price action too, with the largest tech stocks leading the charge higher on Wednesday. Nvidia (NVDA) rose more than 4% on Thursday, while Apple (AAPL) and Meta (META) popped more than 3%. The Information Technology sector (XLK) as a whole rose more than 3.3%, outpacing the S&P 500’s 1.8% gain.

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Citi US equity strategist Scott Chronert described the rotation into large-cap tech on Thursday as “a catch-up move” into a section of the market that will likely benefit from interest rate cuts but hadn’t been leading the rally since the S&P 500’s last record close on July 16.

Chronert pointed out that further deterioration in the labor market remains a key risk to the current rally, as it would potentially imply a recession. This could still bring some choppiness to trading action if economic data surprises to the downside.

“We’re going to have to be navigating still [if this is a] soft landing versus, gosh, there’s still some lingering hard-landing risk out there,” Chronert told Yahoo Finance.

Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on August 16, 2024. US stocks edged lower in early trading Friday, as traders looked to lock in gains at the end of a positive week for major Wall Street indices. Around 10 minutes into trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1 percent at 40,518.87, and the S&P was 0.1 percent lower at 5,536.08. The Nasdaq slipped 0.2 percent to 17,566.08. (Photo by ANGELA WEISS / AFP) (Photo by ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images)

Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 16, 2024. (ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images) (ANGELA WEISS via Getty Images)

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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3 finance stocks to buy on rising 10-year Treasury rates

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3 finance stocks to buy on rising 10-year Treasury rates
The Federal Reserve gave investors an early Christmas present by lowering interest rates by 25 basis points (i.e., 0.25%) marking its third rate cut this year. In the past, a change like this in the “long end” of the interest rate yield curve has triggered a predictable, investable pattern. Typically, this pattern would be bearish for finance stocks, particularly banks—investors would buy bank stocks when rates rose and sell them as rates fell….
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Reservists’ families protest outside Finance Minister’s home

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Reservists’ families protest outside Finance Minister’s home

Dozens of protesters from the “Religious Zionist Reservists Forum” and the “Shared Service Forum” demonstrated Saturday evening outside the home of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich in Kedumim.

The protesters arrived with a direct and pointed message, centered on a symbolic “draft order,” calling on Smotrich to “enlist” on behalf of the State of Israel and oppose what they termed the “sham law” being advanced by MK Boaz Bismuth and the Knesset’s haredi parties.

Among the protesters in Kedumim were the parents of Sergeant First Class (res.) Amichai Oster, who fell in battle in Gaza. Amichai grew up in Karnei Shomron and studied at the Shavei Hevron yeshiva.

Protesters held signs reading: “Smotrich, enlist for us,” along with the symbolic “draft order,” calling on him to “enlist for the sake of the State’s security and to save the people’s army – stand against the bill proposed by Bismuth and the haredim!”

Parallel demonstrations were held outside the homes of MK Ohad Tal in Efrat and MK Michal Woldiger in Givat Shmuel.

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Representatives of the “Shared Service Forum” said: “We are members of the public that contributes the most, and we came here to say: Bezalel, without enlistment there will be no victory and no security. Do not abandon our values for the sake of the coalition. The exemption law is a strategic threat, and you bear the responsibility to stop it and lead a real, fair draft plan for a country in which we are all partners. It’s in your hands.”

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Banking on carbon markets 2.0: why financial institutions should engage with carbon credits | Fortune

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Banking on carbon markets 2.0: why financial institutions should engage with carbon credits | Fortune

The global carbon market is at an inflection point as discussions during the recent COP meeting in Brazil demonstrated. 

After years of negotiations over carbon market rules under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, countries are finally moving on to the implementation phase, with more than 30 countries already developing Article 6 strategies. At the same time, the voluntary market is evolving after a period of intense scrutiny over the quality and integrity of carbon credit projects.

The era of Carbon Markets 2.0 is characterised by high integrity standards and is increasingly recognised as critical to meeting the emission reduction goals of the Paris Agreement.

And this ongoing transition presents enormous opportunities for financial institutions to apply their expertise to professionalise the trade of carbon credits and restore confidence in the market. 

The engagement of banks, insurance companies, asset managers and others can ensure that carbon markets evolve with the same discipline, risk management, and transparency that define mature financial systems while benefitting from new business opportunities.

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Carbon markets 2.0

Carbon markets are an untapped opportunity to deliver climate action at speed and scale. Based on solutions available now, they allow industries to take action on emissions for which there is currently no or limited solution, complementing their decarbonization programs and closing the gap between the net zero we need to achieve and the net zero that is possible now. They also generate debt-free climate finance for emerging and developing economies to support climate-positive growth – all of which is essential for the global transition to net zero.

Despite recent slowdowns in carbon markets, the volume of credit retirements, representing delivered, verifiable climate action, was higher in the first half of 2025 than in any prior first half-year on record. Corporate climate commitments are increasing, driving significant demand for carbon credits to help bridge the gap on the path to meeting net-zero goals.

According to recent market research from the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity initiative (VCMI), businesses are now looking for three core qualities in the market to further rebuild their trust: stability, consistency, and transparency – supported by robust infrastructure. These elements are vital to restoring investor confidence and enabling interoperability across markets.

MSCI estimates that the global carbon credit market could grow from $1.4 billion in 2024 to up to $35 billion by 2030 and between $40 billion and $250 billion by 2050. Achieving such growth will rely on institutions equipped with capital, analytical rigour, risk frameworks, and market infrastructure.

Carbon Markets 2.0 will both benefit from and rely on the participation of financial institutions. Now is the time for them to engage, support the growth and professionalism of this nascent market, and, in doing so, benefit from new business opportunities.

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The opportunity

Institutional capital has a unique role to play in shaping the carbon market as it grows. Financial institutions can go beyond investing or lending to high-quality projects by helping build the infrastructure that will enable growth at scale. This includes insurance, aggregation platforms, verification services, market-making capacity, and long-term investment vehicles. 

By applying their expertise and understanding of the data and infrastructure required for a functioning, transparent market, financial institutions can help accelerate the integration of carbon credits into the global financial architecture. 

As global efforts to decarbonise intensify, high-integrity carbon markets offer financial institutions a pathway to deliver tangible climate impact, support broader social and nature-positive goals, and unlock new sources of revenue, such as:

  • Leveraging core competencies for market growth, including advisory, lending, project finance, asset management, trading, market access, and risk management solutions.
  • Unlocking new commercial pathways and portfolio diversification beyond existing business models, supporting long-term growth, and facilitating entry into emerging decarbonisation-driven markets.
  • Securing first-mover advantage, helping to shape norms, gain market share, and capture opportunities across advisory, structuring, and product innovation.
  • Deepening client engagement by helping clients navigate carbon markets to add strategic value and strengthen long-term relationships.

Harnessing the opportunity

To make the most of these opportunities, financial institutions should consider engagements in high-integrity carbon markets to signal confidence and foster market stability. Visible participation, such as integrating high-quality carbon credits into institutional climate strategies, can help normalise the voluntary use of carbon credits alongside decarbonisation efforts and demonstrate leadership in climate-aligned financial practices.

Financial institutions can also deliver solutions that reduce market risk and improve project bankability. For instance, de-risking mechanisms like carbon credit insurance can mitigate performance, political, and delivery risks, addressing one of the core challenges holding back investments in carbon projects. 

Additionally, diversified funding structures, including blended finance and concessional capital, can lower the cost of capital and de-risk early-stage startups. Fixed-price offtake agreements with investment-grade buyers and the use of project aggregation platforms can improve cash flow predictability and risk distribution, further enhancing bankability.

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By structuring investments into carbon project developers, funds, or the broader market ecosystem, financial institutions can unlock much-needed finance and create an investable pathway for nature and carbon solutions.

For instance, earlier this year JPMorgan Chase struck a long-term offtake agreement for carbon credits tied to CO₂ capture, blending its roles as investor and market facilitator. Standard Chartered is also set to sell jurisdictional forest credits on behalf of the Brazilian state of Acre, while embedding transparency, local consultation, and benefit-sharing into the deal. These examples offer promising precedents in demonstrating that institutions can act not only as financiers but as integrators of high-integrity carbon markets.

The institutions that lead the growth of carbon markets will not only drive climate and nature outcomes but also unlock strategic commercial advantages in an emerging and rapidly evolving asset class.

However, the window to secure first-mover advantage is narrow: carbon markets are now shifting from speculation to implementation. Now is the moment for financial institutions to move from the sidelines and into leadership, helping shape the future of high-integrity carbon markets while capturing the opportunities they offer.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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