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The Fed just convinced markets it's not behind the curve

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The Fed just convinced markets it's not behind the curve

The Federal Reserve’s half-percentage-point interest rate cut could have shaken markets had it exacerbated investor fears that the central bank was preparing for an economic slowdown.

Instead, Fed Chair Powell appears to have convinced investors the central bank is cutting rates to keep the economy on track, not to save it. Stocks surged Thursday following Powell’s press conference after the rate cut decision.

“Chair Powell had one job at his post-FOMC press conference today: convince markets that a 50 bp cut was consistent with a thoughtful policy adjustment rather than a sign that the Fed is worried it is behind the curve,” DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a note to clients Wednesday night. “He accomplished that goal … This is consistent with prior mid-cycle markets, where equities can continue to rally.”

Investors had been increasingly expecting a soft landing, where the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle ends with inflation falling to the 2% target without a significant downturn in the economy. On Wednesday, Chair Powell reiterated that scenario remains in play.

Powell remarked the US economy is “in good shape.” He pointed out that risks to further cooling in the labor market have risen. But the Fed is cutting with that in mind.

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“The labor market is actually in solid condition,” he said. “And our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there.”

To Colas, the comments change little about the market narrative.

“[The Fed] decision doesn’t actually change very much about the current market setup,” Colas wrote. “We know that rates are coming down. We know that the US economy is in reasonably good shape. We know the labor market is cooling but not yet tipping over. While the Fed may have been somewhat clumsy in how it conditioned markets to expect today’s decision, that’s now in the past.”

In the day following Chair Powell’s press conference, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rushed to new record highs, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose over 2%.

Markets are showing familiar price action too, with the largest tech stocks leading the charge higher on Wednesday. Nvidia (NVDA) rose more than 4% on Thursday, while Apple (AAPL) and Meta (META) popped more than 3%. The Information Technology sector (XLK) as a whole rose more than 3.3%, outpacing the S&P 500’s 1.8% gain.

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Citi US equity strategist Scott Chronert described the rotation into large-cap tech on Thursday as “a catch-up move” into a section of the market that will likely benefit from interest rate cuts but hadn’t been leading the rally since the S&P 500’s last record close on July 16.

Chronert pointed out that further deterioration in the labor market remains a key risk to the current rally, as it would potentially imply a recession. This could still bring some choppiness to trading action if economic data surprises to the downside.

“We’re going to have to be navigating still [if this is a] soft landing versus, gosh, there’s still some lingering hard-landing risk out there,” Chronert told Yahoo Finance.

Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on August 16, 2024. US stocks edged lower in early trading Friday, as traders looked to lock in gains at the end of a positive week for major Wall Street indices. Around 10 minutes into trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1 percent at 40,518.87, and the S&P was 0.1 percent lower at 5,536.08. The Nasdaq slipped 0.2 percent to 17,566.08. (Photo by ANGELA WEISS / AFP) (Photo by ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images)

Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 16, 2024. (ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images) (ANGELA WEISS via Getty Images)

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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Finance

Consumer confidence plunges among younger adults

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Consumer confidence plunges among younger adults

Consumer confidence has plunged among traditionally optimistic younger adults amid fears for their personal finances and the wider economy, figures show.

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index remained unchanged at an overall score of minus 23 in June.

However, the analyst said this was was “misleading as, beneath the surface, there are new signs that confidence is weakening”.

Source: GfK

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said: “The biggest fall this month is among those aged 16 to 29, traditionally one of the most optimistic groups.

“Here confidence has dropped 11 points over the past month to minus two, the lowest level seen for two years, driven by large falls in views on both their own personal finances and the wider economy.

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“More broadly, there are now no demographic groups with a positive confidence score, including higher-income households earning £50,000 or more, who have slipped back into negative territory as of June.

“Confidence remains subdued and vulnerable to further economic or political uncertainty.”

Sourve: GfK
Sourve: GfK

Overall, confidence in personal finances over the coming year remained flat at minus two, four points lower than this time last year.

The measures of both personal finances and the economy over the previous 12 months were both slightly down, by two points and three points respectively, “reflecting the sense that things have been extremely tough over the last year for so many”, GfK said.

The only measure to increase was expectations for the wider economy over the next 12 months, up two points to minus 36 but still eight points below this time last year.

The major purchase index, an indicator of confidence in buying big ticket items, remained at minus 20, four points lower than June last year.

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How US-Iran peace deal will affect our cost of living

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How US-Iran peace deal will affect our cost of living

“Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” said Donald Trump on social media after he announced the signing of an interim peace deal with Iran on Sunday. Under the agreement – which Iran acknowledged included a 60-day negotiating period for a final deal – the president said that following retrieval of mines, there would be a “toll free opening” of the Strait of Hormuz.

But many of the finer details remain “unclear”, said The Guardian. There are questions over the “exact timing of the reopening of the maritime route, who will oversee safe passage and whether any conditions will be applied”.

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Hong Kong graduates prefer careers in finance, survey finds

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Hong Kong graduates prefer careers in finance, survey finds
Hong Kong graduates believe the city’s finance industry is its most attractive and stable sector, making them more optimistic about career opportunities than their global peers, according to a study by the CFA Institute, which trains investment managers.

The US-based institute’s “2026 Graduate Outlook Survey”, released on Wednesday, found that 71 per cent of Hong Kong graduates rated their career prospects between eight and 10 out of 10. The global average for that level of optimism was 59 per cent.

The graduates’ view of careers in finance reflected “both the sector’s resilience and Hong Kong’s continued strength as an international financial centre, which ranks third worldwide and first in Asia-Pacific”, the institute said in a statement.

The findings also indicated that young people were confident about Hong Kong’s role as an international financial centre, resilient amid global uncertainties, and strategically focused on improving skills, it said.

That confidence was “deeply grounded”, it said, with nearly 90 per cent believing they had the skills to succeed and clearly understood what employers were looking for, notwithstanding the wider adoption of artificial intelligence in the city.

“Rather than viewing AI as a threat, 38 per cent of Hong Kong graduates believe it has no negative impact on their job hunting, and 37 per cent believe it makes securing a job easier,” the institute said. “Three quarters are already actively using AI tools in their job applications, demonstrating a proactive, tool-first mindset.”

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