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Fed minutes reveal lively September debate about whether first rate cut should be big or small

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Fed minutes reveal lively September debate about whether first rate cut should be big or small

There was a divide within the Federal Reserve about whether its first interest rate cut in more than four years should be big or small, according to minutes from the central bank’s September meeting released Wednesday.

A “substantial majority” of Fed officials supported lowering rates by 50 basis points at the last meeting, but “some” would have preferred to have lowered by 25 basis points and “a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision,” the minutes read.

Those who argued for a 25 basis point reduction noted that inflation was still somewhat elevated, while economic growth was strong and unemployment low.

Several said a smaller cut would line up more with a gradual reduction in the policy rate that would be more predictable and allow more time to assess any impacts on the economy.

Those who argued for a jumbo-sized cut said a 50 basis point move would help sustain strength in the economy and the job market while continuing to bring down inflation.

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Some even said there had been a case for a 25 basis point rate cut at the previous meeting in July, and that recent data offered even more evidence that inflation continues to drop while the labor market cools.

Some of this internal division at the Fed was made public on Sept. 18 as the decision to cut by 50 basis points was announced, with Fed governor Michelle Bowman dissenting and saying she preferred 25 basis points.

No Fed official has voted against a policy decision in two years, matching one of the longest such streaks in the past half-century. Moreover, no Fed governor has dissented on a rate decision since 2005.

The Fed’s rate-setting committee was also almost evenly split on the number of additional rate cuts expected this year, with seven policymakers favoring one additional 25 basis point rate cut before year-end and nine members favoring 50 basis points of additional easing. Two policymakers expected no more rate cuts.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a press conference with reporters last month, acknowledged the dissent but also said there was “broad support” for the cut and a “lot of common ground” among his fellow policymakers.

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Il presidente della Federal Reserve Jerome Powell tiene una conferenza stampa dopo una riunione di due giorni del Federal Open Market Committee a Washington, Stati Uniti, 18 settembre 2024. REUTERS/Tom Brenner

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, at last month’s press conference. (REUTERS/Tom Brenner) (Reuters / Reuters)

In the week since the decision, several policymakers have offered public support for a jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points, citing progress on inflation and a cooling job market.

Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic has said that residual concerns might have led him to trim by a smaller 25 basis points at the September policy meeting, but that would have ignored a recent cooling in the job market.

Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said he voted in favor of cutting by 50 basis points because “the balance of risks has shifted away from higher inflation and toward the risk of a further weakening of the labor market, warranting a lower federal funds rate.”

Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee also said he was “comfortable” with a 50 basis point cut, viewing it “as a demarcation” that the central bank is now back to thinking as much about achieving maximum employment as it is price stability.

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But a stronger-than-expected jobs report released last week now has analysts wondering whether the central bank will curtail rate cuts or if it moved too quickly with a 50 basis point reduction. There are also worries that inflation could be re-elevated as a concern.

Fed officials will get a fresh reading on inflation Thursday when the Consumer Price Index is due out. That measure is expected to keep in line with what officials want to see.

Economists expect core inflation — which eliminates volatile food and energy prices the Fed can’t control — held steady on an annual basis in September at 3.2% from the same level in August. Month over month, CPI is expected to have grown by 0.2%, compared with 0.3% in August.

Some Fed officials are urging a gradual path to cuts as they look to balance downside risks to unemployment with continuing to bring down inflation.

Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan became the latest official to voice that view on Wednesday, saying in a speech that “a more gradual path back to a normal policy stance will likely be appropriate from here to best balance the risks to our dual-mandate goals.”

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Powell made it clear in remarks on Sept. 30 that the central bank isn’t in a “hurry” to bring interest rates down and would prefer smaller cuts.

He also reiterated that the consensus of Fed officials outlined at the September meeting was for two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year, saying, “it wouldn’t mean more fifties.”

Other officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem, and Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee, all have said recently they favor bringing interest rates lower “over time.”

At the September meeting, according to the minutes, officials said it’s important to communicate that lowering rates should not be interpreted to mean the Fed believes the economic outlook has soured or that the Fed will lower rates more rapidly than the path laid out.

“Some participants emphasized that reducing policy restraint too late or too little could risk unduly weakening economic activity and employment. A few participants highlighted in particular the costs and challenges of addressing such a weakening once it is fully under way,” the minutes read.

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Almost all participants saw upside risks to the inflation outlook as having diminished, while downside risks to employment were seen as having increased.

While Fed officials generally viewed the job market as solid, some said that the recent pace of job increases had fallen short of what was required to keep the unemployment rate stable on a sustained basis, assuming a constant labor force participation rate.

Many said that evaluating the job market had been challenging, with increased immigration, revisions to reported payroll data, and possible changes in the underlying growth rate of productivity.

Several participants emphasized the importance of continuing to use disaggregated data or information provided by business contacts as a check on readings on labor market conditions obtained from aggregate data.

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Why has the UAE closed its stock exchanges?

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Why has the UAE closed its stock exchanges?

The United Arab Emirates has closed its main stock exchanges amid a widening conflict in the region following the United States and Israel’s attacks on Iran.

The UAE’s financial regulator on Sunday announced that its key exchanges in Dubai and Abu Dhabi would not immediately reopen after the weekend break amid the fallout of the US-Israeli attacks that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

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The announcement that the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market would remain closed on Monday and Tuesday came after the UAE was hit with hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks, including a strike on Abu Dhabi’s main airport that killed one person and wounded seven others.

The UAE’s Capital Markets Authority said in a statement that it would continue to monitor developments in the region and “assess the situation on an ongoing basis, taking any further measures as necessary”.

Here is all you need to know about the move.

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Why has the UAE decided to shut its main stock exchanges?

The financial regulator did not elaborate on the rationale for its decision, only saying that it was taken in accordance with its “supervisory and regulatory role” in managing the country’s financial markets.

While closing the stock market outside of scheduled breaks is relatively unusual worldwide, especially in the era of electronic trading, it is not unprecedented.

Typically, when financial authorities halt stock trading during a crisis, it is because they are concerned about panic selling.

During periods of extreme volatility, such as wars and financial crises, investors often rush to sell their holdings to avoid suffering big losses.

As investors sell their stocks, the market value falls further.

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This dynamic can spur a vicious cycle that, left unchecked, can lead to a full-blown market crash.

Since the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, stock markets around the world have seen significant – though not catastrophic – losses, while oil prices have risen sharply.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark Tadawul All Share Index fell more than 4 percent on Sunday, while Egypt’s EGX 30 dropped about 2.5 percent.

In Asia, major stock markets closed lower on Monday, with Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down about 1.4 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.

The practice of shutting the market to prevent panic selling is controversial among economists and investors.

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Closing the market prevents investors from accessing cash they might need in a hurry.

Critics also argue that such closures only exacerbate the sense of panic they seek to prevent and distort important signals about the market.

“Investors don’t like uncertainty, and at times of market stress, liquidity is most important. It appears the UAE just took that away,” Burdin Hickok, a professor at New York University’s School of Professional Studies, told Al Jazeera.

“This move has the potential of diminishing the status of Dubai as a true major market and weaken investor confidence in the Dubai markets. There has to be some concern about capital flight and negative ripple effects.”

Has this happened before?

The UAE has closed its stock exchanges before, though not due to regional conflict.

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In 2022, the UAE halted trading as part of a period of mourning declared to mark the death of President Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

The emirate announced a similar pause following the death of Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashid Al Maktoum, in 2006.

“Historically, to the best of my knowledge, no Middle Eastern state, including Israel, has closed its stock exchange during a time of regional conflict,” Hickok said.

“In prior conflicts, Israel has modified hours of their exchange, but we are talking hours, not days.”

Other countries have shuttered their stock markets during periods of major turmoil in recent years.

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After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, authorities shut the Moscow Exchange for nearly a month.

In 2011, Egypt shut its stock exchange for nearly two months as the country was grappling with the upheaval of the Arab Spring.

After the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq halted trading for six days, the longest suspension since the Great Depression.

How important is the UAE’s stock market?

The UAE is a relatively small player in the world of capital markets, though it has made significant inroads in recent years.

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market have a combined market capitalisation of about $1.1 trillion.

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By comparison, the New York Stock Exchange, the world’s biggest bourse, has a market capitalisation of about $44 trillion.

Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Exchange, the biggest exchange in the Middle East, is valued at more than $3 trillion.

Still, the UAE’s stature among financial markets has been on the rise.

Before the latest crisis, UAE-listed stocks had been on a winning streak.

The Dubai Financial Market General Index, which includes companies such as Emirates NBD and Emaar Properties, rose more than 29 percent in the 12 months to February 27.

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Haytham Aoun, an assistant professor of finance at the American University in Dubai, said while the UAE could see some outflow of foreign capital, the country’s economy remains on a strong footing.

“A temporary stock market closure will have a limited impact on long-term economic variables, provided the fundamentals remain strong,” Aoun told Al Jazeera.

“In the UAE case, it’s a precautionary intervention, and not a sign of structural weakness.”

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Canton High School students find success in personal finance

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Canton High School students find success in personal finance

CANTON, Miss. (WLBT) – A group of juniors at Canton High School has won back-to-back state championships in Mississippi’s Personal Finance Challenge.

The team’s work can be seen through the school’s reality fair, where students are assigned careers and salaries and must make the same financial decisions adults face each month.

Teena Ruth, a personal finance teacher, said the exercise resonates beyond the classroom.

“It’s an eye-opening experience,” Ruth said. “They kind of see what it’s like for even their parents when they have to make these decisions every day — when they are writing out those checks.”

For student Jalynn Dunigan, the program carries personal significance.

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“To be known for something else outside of cheer and not just what I do on a court, on a field. I can do something and put my brains to it and people can know that I’m not just pretty,” Dunigan said. “I’m smart as well.”

Student Henser Vicente said the team’s success sends a broader message.

“We’re making a statement that we’re not what you think we are,” Vicente said. “Like, we’re greater than what you think. We can do better than what you think we can do.”

A proposed financial literacy bill in Mississippi would require students to pass a semester of personal finance as a graduation requirement.

Alexandria Luckett said the team’s national success is already motivating others at the school.

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“I’m so happy that people are getting more involved in things like this and stepping out of their comfort zone and just putting themselves out there,” Luckett said. “Because I know there’s a lot of shy students [who] don’t necessarily join clubs or anything. So, when they see a group like this going to nationals two times in a row, I feel like that motivates a lot of students.”

Nelly Rosales said competing at the national level has given the team a platform beyond the competition floor.

“We’ve gone to Cleveland, Ohio, we’ve gone to Atlanta, and then hopefully this year we get to go out of state again,” Rosales said. “Being able to be a role model to a lot of children — like especially Hispanic girls who don’t see a lot of role [models] especially in the community — being able to be a role model is a really big thing.”

The students are currently gearing up for this year’s State Personal Finance Challenge set to take place next month.

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A 27-year-old drew down half of her stock portfolio to buy real estate. It’s part of her plan to hit financial independence.

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A 27-year-old drew down half of her stock portfolio to buy real estate. It’s part of her plan to hit financial independence.

A few years into her accounting career, Carolyn Yu began thinking seriously about financial independence.

“I’d feel very stressed and tired,” Yu, who was working at a Big Four firm at the time, told Business Insider. “I thought, maybe someday I could have more freedom and not spend 24/7 working at a very demanding job.”

She picked up “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” and started listening to the popular real estate podcast, BiggerPockets. One takeaway stood out: focus on buying assets that can grow in value.

Yu, who’d been consistently investing in the stock market since college, felt compelled to make a move. In late 2024, she drained about half her stock portfolio in order to pay cash for a two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo in Fort Worth, Texas.

The Bay Area-based Gen Zer had been eyeing Texas in part for its tax advantages, including the absence of state income tax. She considered other Texas markets, but Fort Worth stood out for its affordability and growth potential.

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“The population growth, the crime rate, the property value growth — they all looked good to me,” she said.

She flew to Fort Worth, toured the condo, signed a contract the next day, and closed within a month. Yu intentionally kept her first purchase under $100,000, unsure whether she had the capital or experience to take on something larger.

“Pretty much 50% of my stock portfolio was gone,” she said. But the drawdown didn’t faze her. “I knew that $80,000 transitioned into another investment.”

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Scaling to 5 properties in 2 years by recycling capital

Yu grew her portfolio by reinvesting equity from one property into the next.

Her strategy centers on buying below market value, improving the property, allowing it to appreciate, and then tapping into the built-up equity to help finance another purchase.

As her portfolio expanded, her financing evolved. She moved from paying all cash for her first condo to using conventional loans and later DSCR (debt service coverage ratio) loans, which are designed for investors and rely heavily on a property’s cash flow.

Her second purchase was a two-bedroom, one-bath single-family home. She bought it in June 2025 for about $105,000, putting down 25%. After investing about $50,000 in renovations, she said the home appraised at $195,000 and rented for $1,500 a month.

“This property allowed me to execute the BRRRR strategy successfully,” she said, referring to buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat. She said she was able to pull out about 70% of the appraised value to help fund her next purchases.

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Within about two years of buying her first condo, Yu had a five-property portfolio. Her first three are cash-flowing, while her fourth is currently listed for rent, and her fifth is being prepared for tenants. Business Insider reviewed mortgage documents to confirm ownership and lease agreements to verify rental rates.


carolyn yu

Yu resides in the Bay Area, but invests in real estate in Fort Worth.

Courtesy of Carolyn Yu



One of the challenges she’s faced since buying property has been vacancy.

She purchased her first condo in late 2024 — “probably the worst time to rent because of winter vacancy,” she said — and it sat empty for six months. She eventually lowered the asking rent by about $100 a month before securing a tenant.

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The vacancy was stressful, but manageable because she had paid cash and didn’t carry a mortgage. Still, she owed about $600 a month in HOA dues.

Her advice to other investors: keep at least six months of reserves, know your numbers inside and out, and expect vacancies and repairs.

Why she prefers real estate to stocks

Yu still invests in stocks, but said she prefers real estate because it feels more controllable and scalable. In addition to generating a few thousand dollars a month in rental income, she’s also building equity in her properties.

“Real estate gave me more control, more tangible assets, more tax efficiency,” she said, pointing to depreciation, mortgage interest deductions, and the ability to refinance without selling. She also enjoys negotiating deals.

She funnels most of her rental income back into her stock portfolio. Her end goal is financial independence and work flexibility.

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Yu wants to own at least eight properties by 2027 and have her portfolio appraised at roughly $2 million. By then, she hopes rental income will cover her expenses and provide enough cushion to leave her W-2 job, so she can focus solely on her real estate business.

She’s also changed how she thinks about spending. Early in her career, she said she coped with work stress by traveling frequently. Now, she prioritizes investing over lifestyle upgrades.

“I would rather put my money into investments right now in exchange for vacations in the future,” she said. “I think it’s totally worth it because I think in two years, I could be financially free.”

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