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Q&A: Leader of Myanmar’s shadow government talks civil war strategy in 2025

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Q&A: Leader of Myanmar’s shadow government talks civil war strategy in 2025

This year is likely to be one of the most pivotal in Myanmar’s modern history.

The country is embroiled in a civil war, ignited by the military’s 2021 coup against an elected government.

Fighting has escalated and the military regime, which calls itself the State Administration Council (SAC), has suffered mounting defeats. It has responded to the loss of control over border regions and swaths of territory to opposition forces with indiscriminate air attacks and atrocities against civilians.

The military’s most formidable opposition – a coalition of ethnic armed groups – now controls most of Rakhine state in the country’s east and from the border with China to the city of Mandalay in the north.

Another major opposition force is the National Unity Government (NUG) – described as Myanmar’s shadow government – in exile, which oversees a loose collection of anti-regime groups known as the People’s Defence Force (PDF).

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The NUG faces challenges in gaining diplomatic recognition on the international front and its fighters are struggling to capture urban areas on the home front.

Al Jazeera spoke with NUG Acting President Duwa Lashi La about the movement’s military and political strategy in 2025 and the war’s likely end game.

Al Jazeera: Please describe the NUG’s strategy for 2025.

Duwa Lashi La: In 2025, we would like to accelerate the wave of our revolution. Although it began with very little resources, the revolution has become stronger. In 2022, we formed armed forces. In 2023, we could launch military operations. In 2025, we are seeking the end game. The people of Myanmar have suffered too much for all these years. We have to bear all these atrocities, while the world just watches on.

In 2025, we are aiming for the complete elimination of evil [regime leader] Min Aung Hlaing from our soil.

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Armed revolution is a vital focus, but it’s not the only one. It’s politically important to have inclusive participation of all the armed forces. It’s also very important to have strong diplomatic cooperation with the international community and to gain more support from them.

Another important factor is good communication with the public, and good governing in our controlled areas. We’re aiming to improve in all these areas in the new year. To achieve that, we have a strategic plan.

Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) Acting President Duwa Lashi La, left, inspect troops of the People’s Defence Force (PDF) [Courtesy of Duwa Lashi La]

Al Jazeera: What do you think will happen in 2025?

Duwa Lashi La: We aim to reach a tipping point in 2025, a similar situation to Syria when al-Assad fled the country.

We have to strike a final blow against the SAC.

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Parts of the international community, such as the ICC [International Criminal Court], are also attempting to prosecute Min Aung Hlaing. We completely support this. It would be great if the international community could arrest him. We’ll also continue our effort to prosecute him within our country from every way possible.

However, international intervention is essential in this transitional period.

With simultaneous and collaborative attempts between the international community and resistance forces against the SAC, we believe the SAC would be destroyed at once.

It’s very important to cut off the financial flow to the SAC to achieve this goal. The military is backed by strong resources that they have acquired from decades of controlling the country. We need to stop this.

The international community should also stop purchasing from Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise, a huge financial source for the military. Additionally, the international community should stop providing jet fuel and selling weapons to the military.

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I strongly urge the international community to stop communicating with the SAC, associating with them and recognizing them.

Al Jazeera: Does the NUG consider itself a leader of the nationwide revolution?

Duwa Lashi La: The NUG is at the frontline of the revolution, as the people of Myanmar elected us to lead it.

The international community needs to recognize this mandate.

Although certain ethnic resistance organizations (EROs) don’t exactly recognize the NUG as a central government, we are performing as one. We are also in consultation with various ethnic armed groups. Some EROs see the NUG as a common, central body that they support. So, our duty is to fulfil this role. That is why we cannot lose this revolution.

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Al Jazeera: Recently you called for the return of NUG ministers to Myanmar – the public welcomed this call. Have any returned yet?

Duwa Lashi La: Our policy is that the revolution should not become stuck. There must be progressive changes within our movement. This is the time for NUG ministers to live with the people on the ground, share the struggle together, and feel the good and the bad of what people experience.

That is why I have urged ministers to return to the country. As this is an important issue, we have been discussing it within the ministerial committee, exclusively comprising all ministers, for about two months now. Certain plans have been laid down by the committee regarding this issue. Some ministers in the committee pledged to come to the frontline.

Al Jazeera: When will the NUG reshuffle its ministers? And who do you have in mind to take over what roles?

Duwa Lashi La: This is classified information. However, we have been as transparent as possible about this. The NUCC [a policy advisory body, the National Unity Consultative Council] has also already announced the NUG’s reformation.

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We completely agree with the reforms. We don’t intend to occupy these roles permanently. It is also important for strengthening the NUG. We are always ready to welcome more skilful and capable individuals who would like to contribute to the revolution.

We have plans to reshuffle ministers to strengthen and speed up the revolution. But, as to when and what reshuffling, I won’t disclose at present. We have agreed on doing that in early 2025. There will be some changes in early 2025.

A member of the PDF, with his back to the camera showing a massive tattoo of Aung San Suu Kyi, gets his head shaved at a KNU training camp in the jungle as other recruits watch from a bamboo hut with a roof of green tarpaulin
A 34-year-old former fitness trainer and member of the People’s Defence Force (PDF) gets a military-style haircut at a training camp in an area controlled by ethnic Karen rebels, in Karen State, Myanmar, in September 2021 [Reuters]

Al Jazeera: What are the NUG’s conditions for peace talks with the military?

Duwa Lashi La: The NUG is always open for dialogue. We never close the door on peace talks. The problem is that the SAC never wants to engage in political dialogue with us.

But we have one condition, as is outlined in our joint statement with the K3C [an ethnic armed group coalition]. If the SAC agrees to at least three of our six requirements, such as accepting civilian rule, and declaring to the world they will never interfere in the country’s politics, then we can move forward with the peace talks.

It’s important that the world’s superpowers, neighbouring countries and ASEAN countries [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations] must be included in witnessing and ensuring the military’s departure from politics. If they cannot agree on these grounds, it will be difficult for us to have peace talks with the SAC.

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An honour guard of Myanmar soldiers marching. They have their weapons fitted with bayonets on their shoulders. They look serious.
A Myanmar military guard of honour marches during a ceremony to mark the 71st anniversary of Martyrs’ Day in Yangon in 2018 [File: Ye Aung Thu/AFP]

Al Jazeera: How are you trying to convince ethnic resistance organisations to back you, and why are some EROs reluctant?

Duwa Lashi La: We need to look back to history to understand that. Myanmar has often had situations where many ethnicities participated together in revolution. For example, when we rebelled against Japanese rule, it was the Kachin who started the revolution, and then the Chin also participated.

The Burmese and Buddhist groups sided with the Japanese, as they were also Buddhists. I don’t mean to discriminate against any communities here; I am just explaining the situation based on the facts.

We are seen as a Western-influenced group. But this revolution is completely different because everyone is involved in this struggle, as they should be. There are some levels of mistrust among the ethnic armed groups. For example, the KNU [Karen National Union] was alone in rebelling against military dictatorship.

Similarly, the Shan also started to rebel against the central government in 1959 and established an independent chain of command – the Kachin in 1961 and, later, the Chin. Everyone has been independently fighting against military dictatorship.

To systemize everyone under one chain of command, each having their own central body, has been the biggest challenge for the NUG. We need to work as a joint chain of command, where all chiefs of staff will have a joint commanding system.

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As for now, we are working under a coordination system for joint military cooperation, and, as we have seen, it’s going successfully. But in the future federal military, we will have to establish one chain of command with the help of experts and concerned parties.

Al Jazeera: In June 2023, the NUG approved the replacement of the 1982 Citizenship Law that denies equal access to full citizenship rights for Rohingya and others in the country. Has the NUG officially repealed this law?

Duwa Lashi La: This has been under our consideration since 2021, just after the coup. We released a statement on the amendment of the unjust 1982 law. But when and how to do it depends on the legal requirements and the country’s situation.

When the situation improves, as we often say during the transitional period, when we are able to include the opinion of the grassroots level, when we get the people’s mandate, the concerned government will definitely amend that law.

It is not something we can rush. If we amend a law without deliberate consultation, it would be a weak law that would need to be amended again and again. We would not have the public’s trust in such weak laws. We must take time to create a law that the people have full faith and strong belief in.

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Al Jazeera: How will you address increased Chinese backing for the military regime?

Duwa Lashi La: We are always attempting to make China understand the realities in Myanmar. Not only China – we would like our neighbouring countries, such as India and Bangladesh, to realize the real situation.

I cannot understand why they would support this brutal, heartless military that destroys its own country. China is our neighbouring country. We cannot choose our neighbour. We can’t say that we don’t like to be their neighbour and move Myanmar to an island. That’s impossible. Whether we like it or not, we always need communication with China.

Municipal workers sweep on a road near a welcoming billboard to Chinese President Xi Jinping Friday, Jan. 17, 2020, in Naypyitaw, Myanmar. China's President Xi Jinping was heading to Myanmar on Friday for a state visit likely to deepen the countries' already close bilateral relations at a critical time. (AP Photo/Aung Shine Oo)
Municipal workers sweep a road near a welcoming billboard for Chinese President Xi Jinping, in 2020, to the capital Naypyidaw, Myanmar [File: Aung Shine Oo/AP Photo]

But it’s important for our neighbours to know what the people of Myanmar want. One thing is clear: Myanmar must be in accordance with the will of the Myanmar people, as noted in the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2669. The people of Myanmar do not want a military dictatorship. Period.

To persuade them, we are communicating with China in every diplomatic way possible, through any channel possible. As we are neighbours, we ensure security and better collaboration in economics and their investments, as it’s a very economic-orientated country. We have informed them that any bilateral agreement between a democratic government of Myanmar and China would be ensured.

Al Jazeera: The military has been committing atrocities with its indiscriminate air strikes. What is the NUG’s counter to these air strikes?

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Duwa Lashi La: We have always expressed our desperate need for antiaircraft weapons to counter military air strikes through various media channels. Ordinary weapons have been unable to take down the regime’s highly modernized Russian-made jet fighters.

We really need effective weapons, like antiaircraft missiles. But there are many limitations to obtaining such military weapons.

It’s possible if there’s a will – take Ukraine, for example. We are confident to take the whole military down within six months if we are provided with such weapons.

If we could ever get support like Ukraine, this struggle would end immediately.

At least 6,000 innocent people have lost their lives so far. Hundreds of thousands of civilian homes, religious buildings and schools have been destroyed, and these atrocities are mainly because of the air strikes.

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Once again, I seriously urge the international community to consider the Myanmar situation and support the people’s revolution.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

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Zelenskyy warns Russia may be preparing ‘massive’ new attack

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Zelenskyy warns Russia may be preparing ‘massive’ new attack

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Russia may be preparing to launch a “massive” new attack against Ukraine.

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“We have intel indicating that Russia is preparing a new massive attack,” Zelenskyy said in a post on social media late on Friday, while also advising people to listen out for air raid alerts and keep safe.

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“The air force and protectors of our skies will be working around the clock, as always,” he added.

It comes after Russia deployed its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile in a massive wave of strikes on the Kyiv region last weekend. Ukraine said the attack included 90 missiles and 600 drones.

The use of the Oreshnik, an intermediate-range ballistic missile that Russia first used in a strike on Dnipro in 2024, drew strong criticism from leaders across Europe.

On Friday, Zelenskyy also reiterated his call for more Patriot missile systems from the US. The Patriot is an air and missile defense system used to intercept ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, and aircraft.

Zelenskyy told reporters in Sweden on Thursday that he was being “very persistent” in his pursuit of new missiles for the system. He reportedly wrote to US President Donald Trump earlier this week asking for more ammunition.

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“For us — for a nation fighting for its survival — there is hardly anything more painful to see than Patriot batteries with no missiles loaded,” he said in his letter to Trump.

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War breaking news. Trump postpones decision: nothing after two hours in Situation Room

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War breaking news. Trump postpones decision: nothing after two hours in Situation Room

Iran, Trump shares draft agreement with Israel and other allies

US President Donald Trump has circulated the draft peace agreement for the war with Iran among allies, including Israel, while attempts are underway to prevent new ceasefire violations from escalating and derailing any agreement. Meanwhile, in an effort to accelerate negotiations, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Ishaq Dar, will be in Washington today to meet with his US counterpart, Marco Rubio.

Yesterday, Tehran targeted a US air base in Kuwait after Washington struck what it called an Iranian drone operation near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the fragility of the situation as both negotiating parties refuse to give in on the final points of disagreement. On Wednesday, Trump’s cabinet was scheduled to discuss the deal, but Axios – which reported on the terms of the deal reached – reported that the US president needed a few more days to reflect on the eventual go-ahead.

The draft shared by Trump is not much different from the one that has been circulating in the Middle East for days, according to which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened to commercial shipping, the US blockade of Iranian ports would be lifted, and Iran would be granted access to some $12 billion (£9 billion) in frozen assets.

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The goal would be to restore cross-strait commercial traffic to pre-war levels within 30 days and to begin negotiations, expected to last up to 60 days, on the future of Iran’s nuclear programme. These would include discussions on the stockpile of highly enriched uranium, a temporary suspension of further enrichment, and supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog. Iran would renounce the use of nuclear weapons.

US Vice-President JD Vance said yesterday that both sides were close to an agreement, but that a couple of sticking points persisted in talks with Tehran concerning enriched uranium stockpiles and the enrichment issue. “It is difficult to say exactly when, or if, the president will sign” the memorandum of understanding. “We are still discussing a couple of points related to the wording,” Vance said.

China is lobbying the UN Security Council to ratify any agreement. The current scope of the deal would be deeply unacceptable to Israel because it postpones any final nuclear commitment by Iran and requires a permanent ceasefire that includes Lebanon, the Guardian reported

Direct military negotiations between Israel and Lebanon start today at the Pentagon

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The first direct meeting between Lebanese and Israeli military delegations opens today at the Pentagon as part of the negotiations promoted by the United States after the truce that came into effect, at least on paper, in mid-April. The talks take place while Israel intensifies raids and bombardments in Lebanon, including the southern suburbs of Beirut. The Jewish state has issued several forced displacement orders to Israeli civilians in Nabatiye and Tyre, the two main Lebanese cities in the south of the country. Beirut’s armed forces come to the table with a position defined by President Joseph Aoun, who is considered close to the United States: a complete ceasefire, an end to Israeli operations, withdrawal from the occupied areas in the south, and increased army deployment along the border. Beirut also demands the release of Lebanese prisoners, the return of displaced persons, and international support for reconstruction. The meeting follows two previous negotiating sessions held in Washington on 14 and 15 May, which led to the extension of the ‘truce’ for 45 days. The United States, engaged in large-scale negotiations with Hezbollah supporter Iran, is aiming to strengthen direct military coordination between the two sides. In this sense, a new political round at the State Department is scheduled for 2 and 3 June. However, the most delicate knot remains on the table: Israel claims the right to conduct preventive operations against threats considered imminent, a formula contested by Beirut and at the centre of internal Lebanese tensions. At the same time, Washington continues to exert pressure on the Hezbollah disarmament dossier, while the Shiite movement reiterates its rejection of direct negotiations and continues its operations against the Israeli occupation forces in southern Lebanon. According to data gathered from Lebanese sources, more than 4,500 Israeli violations, more than 5,500 homes destroyed, and direct or indirect Israeli military control over more than 65 locations in South Lebanon have been recorded since the start of the mid-April ‘truce’.

Emir Qatar hears Trump, ‘priority to political and diplomatic solutions’

Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani has asked US President Donald Trump to “prioritise political and diplomatic solutions” in the Middle East, in the context of negotiations between Washington and Tehran for a possible agreement. The request came during a phone call between the two leaders, during which international efforts to reduce tensions in the region were addressed. This was reported by the Qatari state agency Qna. Al Thani emphasised ‘the need to prioritise political and diplomatic solutions, as well as dialogue between all parties, to consolidate regional security and stability and avoid further tensions and escalation’. Washington meanwhile confirmed an agreement in principle with Iran to extend the 60-day truce and guarantee shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but the understanding remains pending Trump’s approval and has not yet been confirmed by Tehran.

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Pentagon hosts first-ever Israeli–Lebanese military talks aimed at curbing Hezbollah

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Pentagon hosts first-ever Israeli–Lebanese military talks aimed at curbing Hezbollah

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Israeli and Lebanese military delegations opened Pentagon-mediated talks Friday morning in Washington, launching a new U.S.-brokered security coordination track aimed at preventing renewed escalation along the Israel–Lebanon border and shoring up a fragile ceasefire reached in mid-April.

A State Department official told Fox News Digital that, “As we have continuously stated, the only path to lasting peace is through direct negotiations between the two sovereign governments.”

The discussions mark a shift from diplomatic negotiations into direct military coordination, with talks expected to focus on ceasefire enforcement, border stability, Israeli withdrawal from parts of southern Lebanon and the role of the Lebanese Armed Forces in containing Hezbollah.

ISRAEL MOVES TOWARDS CEASEFIRE DEAL WITH HEZBOLLAH: REPORTS

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Michael Needham, counselor for the U.S. Department of State, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa, Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. Nada Hamadeh Moawad, and Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter pose for a photo before a meeting at the State Department in Washington, D.C., on April 14, 2026. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo)

The talks come weeks after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire first reached during the broader regional conflict tied to the U.S.–Iran war. While large-scale fighting has eased, Israeli forces continue operating inside parts of southern Lebanon and Hezbollah maintains drone and rocket capabilities, keeping tensions high along the border.

The ceasefire was extended on May 15 for another 45 days, creating pressure on both sides to show progress before the current arrangement expires.

But analysts say the central question overshadowing the talks is whether Lebanon can realistically curb Hezbollah’s military power without risking internal collapse.

“This will be the first meeting between representatives of the militaries since the start of the negotiation process between Lebanon and Israel,” Ahmed Sharawi, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, told Fox News Digital.

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Representing Lebanon in the talks is Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal, who previously served as commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces in southern Lebanon, an area where Hezbollah maintains a strong presence. Hezbollah is the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist organization designated by the United States as a foreign terrorist organization. 

“What we should expect is talks regarding de-confliction and what the expectations are for the LAF in terms of the broader disarmament plan against Hezbollah’s weapons,” he said.

Sharawi said the chances of a broader breakthrough remain limited so long as Hezbollah remains heavily armed and politically entrenched inside Lebanon.

“The biggest obstacle here is that the Lebanese state is yet to present a feasible plan to disarm Hezbollah,” he said.

LAWMAKERS QUESTION WHETHER US MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO CAPITALIZE ON HEZBOLLAH’S WEAKENED STATE

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But analysts say the central question overshadowing the talks is whether Lebanon can realistically curb Hezbollah’s military power without risking internal collapse.  (Ibrahim AMRO / AFP via Getty Images)

He pointed to the terms of the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, which placed responsibility for disarming Hezbollah on the Lebanese state.

“We are yet to see the confiscation of one single bullet from Hezbollah,” Sharawi said.

He also warned that Hezbollah’s deep support among Lebanon’s Shiite population complicates any attempt to move toward normalization with Israel.

“There’s a fear of a civil war,” he said. “That also accounts for the Lebanese state’s unwillingness to disarm Hezbollah.”

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The talks opened as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled Israel intends to maintain military pressure on Hezbollah despite the negotiations.

Sharawi argued the Trump administration nevertheless appears determined to push the process forward as part of a broader effort to weaken Iranian influence in the region.

“The reason behind these meetings is that President Trump is really trying to push for a peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon,” he said. “Peace between these two countries could really undermine Hezbollah and its influence in Lebanon.”

WALTZ SAYS TRUMP HAS CREATED ‘BEST CHANCE IN OUR LIFETIME’ TO BREAK HEZBOLLAH’S GRIP ON LEBANON

Churches in the southern Lebanese town of Rmeish remained standing throughout the conflict, as residents say the community resisted Hezbollah attempts to launch rockets from the area. (Jusoor News)

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Israeli analysts similarly described the talks less as a breakthrough and more as a strategic signal aimed at Hezbollah.

“The war between us and Hezbollah is continuing,” Yossi Kuperwasser, senior project manager at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and former head of the Research Division of Israeli Military Intelligence, told Fox News Digital.

“There is no doubt the Lebanese government does not have a monopoly on the use of force in Lebanon,” he said.

‘OVERBLOWN’ REPORTS ON ISRAEL–LEBANON NORMALIZATION RISK HINDERING BORDER TALKS BEFORE THEY BEGIN: OFFICIAL

IDF troops discovered a Hezbollah weapons cache near a UNIFIL post in southern Lebanon in 2024. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit)

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Kuperwasser said expectations for an immediate diplomatic breakthrough should remain low, but argued the talks themselves send an important political message.

“The purpose of these talks is first and foremost to send a message to Hezbollah and also to the Americans,” he said. “Both sides are prepared to sit together against Hezbollah and signal that they are moving, even if slowly, toward normalization between Israel and Lebanon.”

He argued Hezbollah has been weakened politically and militarily by the ongoing conflict and by growing frustration among Lebanese civilians displaced by the fighting.

“For years Hezbollah portrayed itself as the defender of Lebanon,” Kuperwasser said. “Now many Lebanese see Hezbollah as responsible for the suffering Lebanon is experiencing.”

Kuperwasser added that while Israel supports strengthening the Lebanese army, Beirut fears direct confrontation with Hezbollah could ignite another civil war.

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“The Lebanese government fears military action against Hezbollah would lead to civil war,” he said. “That fear shapes everything.”

The talks also come amid mounting domestic pressure inside Israel, where critics of Netanyahu have accused the government of pursuing containment rather than decisive military victory against Hezbollah.

Speaking Friday during a visit to Israel’s northern front, Netanyahu said Israeli forces had crossed the Litani River and were operating across multiple parts of Lebanon. 

“We are operating in Beirut, in the Bekaa Valley, across the entire front and striking Hezbollah hard,” Netanyahu said.

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A woman holds her dog as she walks past burned cars a day after an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, on April 9, 2026. (Emilio Morenatti/AP)

Meanwhile, Lebanon’s leadership is attempting to balance growing American pressure with fears of internal instability and renewed sectarian conflict.

Neither the Israeli Embassy in Washington nor the Lebanese Embassy in Washington immediately responded to requests for comment. The Pentagon did not have anything to add when asked to comment. 

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