Connect with us

Finance

Fed minutes reveal lively September debate about whether first rate cut should be big or small

Published

on

Fed minutes reveal lively September debate about whether first rate cut should be big or small

There was a divide within the Federal Reserve about whether its first interest rate cut in more than four years should be big or small, according to minutes from the central bank’s September meeting released Wednesday.

A “substantial majority” of Fed officials supported lowering rates by 50 basis points at the last meeting, but “some” would have preferred to have lowered by 25 basis points and “a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision,” the minutes read.

Those who argued for a 25 basis point reduction noted that inflation was still somewhat elevated, while economic growth was strong and unemployment low.

Several said a smaller cut would line up more with a gradual reduction in the policy rate that would be more predictable and allow more time to assess any impacts on the economy.

Those who argued for a jumbo-sized cut said a 50 basis point move would help sustain strength in the economy and the job market while continuing to bring down inflation.

Advertisement

Some even said there had been a case for a 25 basis point rate cut at the previous meeting in July, and that recent data offered even more evidence that inflation continues to drop while the labor market cools.

Some of this internal division at the Fed was made public on Sept. 18 as the decision to cut by 50 basis points was announced, with Fed governor Michelle Bowman dissenting and saying she preferred 25 basis points.

No Fed official has voted against a policy decision in two years, matching one of the longest such streaks in the past half-century. Moreover, no Fed governor has dissented on a rate decision since 2005.

The Fed’s rate-setting committee was also almost evenly split on the number of additional rate cuts expected this year, with seven policymakers favoring one additional 25 basis point rate cut before year-end and nine members favoring 50 basis points of additional easing. Two policymakers expected no more rate cuts.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a press conference with reporters last month, acknowledged the dissent but also said there was “broad support” for the cut and a “lot of common ground” among his fellow policymakers.

Advertisement
Il presidente della Federal Reserve Jerome Powell tiene una conferenza stampa dopo una riunione di due giorni del Federal Open Market Committee a Washington, Stati Uniti, 18 settembre 2024. REUTERS/Tom Brenner

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, at last month’s press conference. (REUTERS/Tom Brenner) (Reuters / Reuters)

In the week since the decision, several policymakers have offered public support for a jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points, citing progress on inflation and a cooling job market.

Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic has said that residual concerns might have led him to trim by a smaller 25 basis points at the September policy meeting, but that would have ignored a recent cooling in the job market.

Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said he voted in favor of cutting by 50 basis points because “the balance of risks has shifted away from higher inflation and toward the risk of a further weakening of the labor market, warranting a lower federal funds rate.”

Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee also said he was “comfortable” with a 50 basis point cut, viewing it “as a demarcation” that the central bank is now back to thinking as much about achieving maximum employment as it is price stability.

Advertisement

But a stronger-than-expected jobs report released last week now has analysts wondering whether the central bank will curtail rate cuts or if it moved too quickly with a 50 basis point reduction. There are also worries that inflation could be re-elevated as a concern.

Fed officials will get a fresh reading on inflation Thursday when the Consumer Price Index is due out. That measure is expected to keep in line with what officials want to see.

Economists expect core inflation — which eliminates volatile food and energy prices the Fed can’t control — held steady on an annual basis in September at 3.2% from the same level in August. Month over month, CPI is expected to have grown by 0.2%, compared with 0.3% in August.

Some Fed officials are urging a gradual path to cuts as they look to balance downside risks to unemployment with continuing to bring down inflation.

Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan became the latest official to voice that view on Wednesday, saying in a speech that “a more gradual path back to a normal policy stance will likely be appropriate from here to best balance the risks to our dual-mandate goals.”

Advertisement

Powell made it clear in remarks on Sept. 30 that the central bank isn’t in a “hurry” to bring interest rates down and would prefer smaller cuts.

He also reiterated that the consensus of Fed officials outlined at the September meeting was for two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year, saying, “it wouldn’t mean more fifties.”

Other officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem, and Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee, all have said recently they favor bringing interest rates lower “over time.”

At the September meeting, according to the minutes, officials said it’s important to communicate that lowering rates should not be interpreted to mean the Fed believes the economic outlook has soured or that the Fed will lower rates more rapidly than the path laid out.

“Some participants emphasized that reducing policy restraint too late or too little could risk unduly weakening economic activity and employment. A few participants highlighted in particular the costs and challenges of addressing such a weakening once it is fully under way,” the minutes read.

Advertisement

Almost all participants saw upside risks to the inflation outlook as having diminished, while downside risks to employment were seen as having increased.

While Fed officials generally viewed the job market as solid, some said that the recent pace of job increases had fallen short of what was required to keep the unemployment rate stable on a sustained basis, assuming a constant labor force participation rate.

Many said that evaluating the job market had been challenging, with increased immigration, revisions to reported payroll data, and possible changes in the underlying growth rate of productivity.

Several participants emphasized the importance of continuing to use disaggregated data or information provided by business contacts as a check on readings on labor market conditions obtained from aggregate data.

Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices

Advertisement

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

Finance

Consumer confidence plunges among younger adults

Published

on

Consumer confidence plunges among younger adults

Consumer confidence has plunged among traditionally optimistic younger adults amid fears for their personal finances and the wider economy, figures show.

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index remained unchanged at an overall score of minus 23 in June.

However, the analyst said this was was “misleading as, beneath the surface, there are new signs that confidence is weakening”.

Source: GfK

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said: “The biggest fall this month is among those aged 16 to 29, traditionally one of the most optimistic groups.

“Here confidence has dropped 11 points over the past month to minus two, the lowest level seen for two years, driven by large falls in views on both their own personal finances and the wider economy.

Advertisement

“More broadly, there are now no demographic groups with a positive confidence score, including higher-income households earning £50,000 or more, who have slipped back into negative territory as of June.

“Confidence remains subdued and vulnerable to further economic or political uncertainty.”

Sourve: GfK
Sourve: GfK

Overall, confidence in personal finances over the coming year remained flat at minus two, four points lower than this time last year.

The measures of both personal finances and the economy over the previous 12 months were both slightly down, by two points and three points respectively, “reflecting the sense that things have been extremely tough over the last year for so many”, GfK said.

The only measure to increase was expectations for the wider economy over the next 12 months, up two points to minus 36 but still eight points below this time last year.

The major purchase index, an indicator of confidence in buying big ticket items, remained at minus 20, four points lower than June last year.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Finance

How US-Iran peace deal will affect our cost of living

Published

on

How US-Iran peace deal will affect our cost of living

“Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” said Donald Trump on social media after he announced the signing of an interim peace deal with Iran on Sunday. Under the agreement – which Iran acknowledged included a 60-day negotiating period for a final deal – the president said that following retrieval of mines, there would be a “toll free opening” of the Strait of Hormuz.

But many of the finer details remain “unclear”, said The Guardian. There are questions over the “exact timing of the reopening of the maritime route, who will oversee safe passage and whether any conditions will be applied”.

Continue Reading

Finance

Hong Kong graduates prefer careers in finance, survey finds

Published

on

Hong Kong graduates prefer careers in finance, survey finds
Hong Kong graduates believe the city’s finance industry is its most attractive and stable sector, making them more optimistic about career opportunities than their global peers, according to a study by the CFA Institute, which trains investment managers.

The US-based institute’s “2026 Graduate Outlook Survey”, released on Wednesday, found that 71 per cent of Hong Kong graduates rated their career prospects between eight and 10 out of 10. The global average for that level of optimism was 59 per cent.

The graduates’ view of careers in finance reflected “both the sector’s resilience and Hong Kong’s continued strength as an international financial centre, which ranks third worldwide and first in Asia-Pacific”, the institute said in a statement.

The findings also indicated that young people were confident about Hong Kong’s role as an international financial centre, resilient amid global uncertainties, and strategically focused on improving skills, it said.

That confidence was “deeply grounded”, it said, with nearly 90 per cent believing they had the skills to succeed and clearly understood what employers were looking for, notwithstanding the wider adoption of artificial intelligence in the city.

“Rather than viewing AI as a threat, 38 per cent of Hong Kong graduates believe it has no negative impact on their job hunting, and 37 per cent believe it makes securing a job easier,” the institute said. “Three quarters are already actively using AI tools in their job applications, demonstrating a proactive, tool-first mindset.”

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending