Culture
NHL 2024-25 bold predictions: Revisiting our preseason prognostications
Utah will be one of the NHL’s highest-scoring teams? The Stars Stanley Cup winners? Dylan Larkin — and many others — 40-goal scorers?
Heading into the 2024-25 NHL season, The Athletic asked its hockey staff for bold predictions, and two months later, some are holding up well while others look to have been a bit too bold.
Here’s a progress report on each prediction, from the writers ready to take a victory lap to the many who need a mulligan.
Preseason bold prediction: Trevor Zegras will not be traded this season
Outlook: Still in play
It feels like there have been two factions at work here: those who feel like a Zegras trade is inevitable and those (i.e., Zegras/Ducks fans) who are beyond tired of seeing his name in trade-related/hypothesized/predicted stories. Mind you, it’s hard to peg what his value is or could be. He had been healthy until he got injured this week and his return date is uncertain. Those who’ve watched him closely can see he is playing a more responsible 200-foot game under Greg Cronin. But he’s also on a 34-point pace. Zegras might be a distressed asset, but GM Pat Verbeek isn’t going to move a highly skilled 23-year-old forward for another team’s throwaways. — Eric Stephens
Jeremy Swayman struggled early for the Bruins, but is better as of late. (Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
Preseason bold prediction: Jeremy Swayman will struggle early
Outlook: Lock it in
This one was easy. It wasn’t just that Swayman missed all of training camp before signing his contract. He had to adjust to the physical and mental strain of being the go-to goalie following the trade of Linus Ullmark. On top of that, most of his teammates struggled out of the gate. It’s no wonder Swayman wasn’t himself. — Fluto Shinzawa
Preseason bold prediction: Owen Power will double his previous high-goal total
Outlook: Still in play
Power is already almost halfway to a career high in points 26 games into the season and has three goals. He needs nine more in the final 66 games to get to my preseason bold prediction. Given that he plays 22 minutes a night and has a role on the power play, 12 goals is still a number that’s in play, but it’s not quite a lock. — Matthew Fairburn
Preseason bold prediction: Jonathan Huberdeau will crack the 80-point plateau
Outlook: So far, not so good. But there’s time …
While Huberdeau’s goal totals look more promising compared to last year (he had one point in all of December 2023), we kind of figured his assists would be up. However, he isn’t trending toward an 80-point season, per Hockey Reference. But if he goes on some kind of scoring run between now and the end of the season, maybe that changes. — Julian McKenzie
Preseason bold prediction: Seth Jarvis will get a shot at center
Outlook: So far, not so good. But there’s time …
The Hurricanes still haven’t figured out who will be their second-line center, but so far it hasn’t been Jarvis. Coach Rod Brind’Amour has bounced between using Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Jack Drury in a more featured role, while Jarvis has remained on the wing. Jarvis has also not been used much on faceoffs — a key for any Brind’Amour center — since returning from an upper-body injury. — Cory Lavalette
Preseason bold prediction: The Blackhawks will finish 25 points better than last season
Outlook: It’s a long shot
This season hasn’t gone as expected for the Blackhawks, which was apparent with Luke Richardson’s firing on Thursday. They’re more competitive than a season ago — they’ve led, been tied or within a goal in the third period in 25 of 26 games — but their record is even worse. Does a new coach change that? We’ll see. But they have to win a lot to meet the bold prediction. — Scott Powers
Preseason bold prediction: Cale Makar will have 100 points
Outlook: Still in play
This prediction is looking solid through the first two months of the season. Makar leads all defensemen with 34 points, which ranks 13th amongst all players. He’s on an 82-game pace of 103 points, so he’s right on track. As expected, Makar is getting a lot of his production done on the power play, where he’s tied for fourth in the NHL with 14 points. — Jesse Granger
Yegor Chinakhov has had an impressive start to the season with the Blue Jackets. (Jason Mowry / Getty Images)
Preseason bold prediction: Yegor Chinakhov will bloom as a goal scorer
Outlook: Still in play
Chinakhov threatened to make this prediction look like pure genius with three goals and seven points in the Blue Jackets’ first five games. He’s since cooled off and is currently out of the lineup day to day with an upper-body injury. But once he returns, the 23-year-old Russian will get a top-six role on a club that’s been surprisingly productive. He has seven goals in 21 games, meaning our prediction of 25-plus is still in play. Our prediction of increased ice time? He’s gone from 15:10 last season to 17:01 under coach Dean Evason. — Aaron Portzline
Preseason bold prediction: The Stars will win the Stanley Cup
Outlook: Still in play
Top 10 in goals per game, top five in goals-against per game, top five in penalty kill and a top-10 goalie in Jake Oettinger. The Stars are right where we expected them to be, among the league’s best teams, and they’re doing it with an underperforming power play and relatively slow starts from Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston, all of which likely will positively regress to the mean. Even with Tyler Seguin’s potential season-ending surgery (something which likely will make the Stars more aggressive in the trade market), Dallas remains a leading contender for the Stanley Cup. — Mark Lazerus
Preseason bold prediction: Dylan Larkin will score 40 goals
Outlook: Still in play
This season hasn’t gone how the Red Wings would have hoped, but Larkin is indeed close to being on pace to threaten 40 goals. There’s a lot of season left, of course, but he’s been a force, particularly on the power play. Detroit could really use some more offense from down the lineup, but their top players (Larkin, Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat) have been scoring to begin the year. — Max Bultman
Preseason bold prediction: Stuart Skinner will finish top five in Vezina voting
Outlook: Not happening
Skinner went from perhaps the presumptive starter for Team Canada at the 4 Nations tourney entering the offseason to not making the team because of his subpar start. Skinner sports an .889 save percentage in 17 appearances. He’s also surrendered 5.26 more goals than expected in all situations, per Natural Stat Trick. His last start before rosters were due was one of his best, but it was too little too late. — Daniel Nugent-Bowman
GO DEEPER
Stuart Skinner’s last audition for a Team Canada job is as good as it gets
Preseason bold prediction: Adam Boqvist will break out
Outlook: It’s a long shot
It’s not that Boqvist has been horrendous — an expected goal rate of around 50 percent for a cheap, third-pair defenseman could be worse — but he hasn’t come close to a breakout, either, and actually played his way out of the lineup for most of November. He’s back, though, and scored in consecutive games through Thursday. More than anything, that prediction was based on Boqvist getting a whole bunch of power-play time, and that’s once again Aaron Ekblad’s job to lose. Probably not happening. — Sean Gentille
Preseason bold prediction: Quinton Byfield will become the Kings’ best player
Outlook: Not happening
Can I say I was kidding? No? Hey, I bought into the idea of Byfield building on his breakout season. Seeing him with just three goals and 11 points nearly a third of the way into the season is a bit baffling. He’s back at his natural position but the transition from playing on wing with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe to centering his own line hasn’t been seamless. It’s not that he’s hurting their lineup but the Kings becoming a real threat in the Western Conference will look more realistic if he starts to look more like a leading player on their roster like Kopitar and Kempe are. — Eric Stephens
Preseason bold prediction: Matt Boldy will score 40 goals and 40 assists
Outlook: Still in play
This felt like a lock in mid-November when he had 10 goals in his first 16 games, but Boldy has gone six games without a goal and has one in his past nine. Still, he was on pace for 36 goals and 43 assists for a 79-point total through Thursday, which would establish career highs. This is a guy who has a tendency to get white hot, especially because he is a high-volume shooter (93 in 25 games this season, 3.7 per game). — Michael Russo
Preseason bold prediction: Juraj Slafkovský will hit 70 points
Outlook: So far, not so good. But there’s time …
Slafkovský has 14 points in 23 games and has 56 games left to get 56 points. Doesn’t seem ideal. But last season at this point, Slafkovský had 7 points in 25 games and finished with 43 points in his final 57 games. Putting up a point per game from here on out is a high bar, but Slafkovský has not yet reached the level we saw from him last season. There is a lot of room for him to grow. I’m not willing to write off this prediction just yet, though it’s not looking great so far. — Arpon Basu
Preseason bold prediction: Juuse Saros will win the Vezina Trophy
Outlook: Not happening
Saros is the absolute least of the Preds’ concerns. He’s having a fine season — you might even call it an extraordinary season, given the utter lack of help he’s getting. But he isn’t standing on his head enough to deliver wins for the league’s worst offensive team. Or is this just the worst team, period? Team failure to this extent repels individual awards. — Joe Rexrode
Preseason bold prediction: The Devils will finish with the East’s best record
Outlook: Still in play
The Devils’ offseason overhaul has led to a successful start to 2024-25. Their position in the East standings is a bit inflated by games they have in hand, but they were still fourth in points percentage through Thursday. One hot streak and they could be right in the mix with the leaders. — Peter Baugh
Preseason bold prediction: Noah Dobson will score 70 points again — and get a big extension
Outlook: It’s a long shot
The 70-point thing is a pipe dream with Dobson sitting on 12 points through 27 games. And the eight-year $8-million-or-so extension might be a pipe dream too. Dobson is still just 24, but he’s hit a plateau this season for the middling Islanders. Whoops. — Arthur Staple
Preseason bold prediction: Igor Shesterkin will win the Vezina Trophy
Outlook: Still in play
The Rangers are in a bit of a rut, but Shesterkin has had a good year. His 8-9-1 record isn’t overly impressive, but he has taken most of the Rangers games against playoff teams and had a .908 save percentage through Thursday with better underlying numbers. He’s not among the Vezina front-runners at this point, but him winning the award isn’t impossible. He also now doesn’t have any contract talk hanging over him. He agreed to a record-setting eight-year extension Friday. — Peter Baugh
Preseason bold prediction: Travis Green will win the Jack Adams Award
Outlook: It’s a long shot
If the Senators reverse their fortunes after a less-than-ideal start, Green’s case for the Jack Adams could be made. When Ottawa plays at its best, it looks like a playoff team. The issue is consistency. That’s on Green to help instill in his own group. But right now, we don’t think Green will end up on many ballots for coach of the year honors. — Julian McKenzie
GO DEEPER
Who has disappointed the most so far? Senators fan survey results
Preseason bold prediction: The Flyers will have a top-15 power play
Outlook: It’s a long shot
It looked so promising early. The Flyers converted on eight of their first 31 power-play chances through eight games, good for eighth in the NHL. Since then it’s resumed its place at the bottom of the league. Since Oct. 27, only the Bruins have a worse power play than the Flyers’ 10.4 percent success rate. At some point, perhaps soon, the Flyers may be forced to make a decision on assistant coach Rocky Thompson, who just can’t seem to get this part of the Flyers’ game going. — Kevin Kurz
Marcus Pettersson could be a big target for teams at the trade deadline. (Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
Preseason bold prediction: Marcus Pettersson will become a trade-deadline commodity
Outlook: Lock it in
Pettersson was No. 2 on our big board and would-be UFAs that high on a trade list don’t usually end up staying with their teams. The Penguins won four consecutive games before Friday, their best run of the season. They’re within striking distance of a playoff spot — and it’s possible that means they hold on to Pettersson. But a case can be made for striking while the iron is hot. There are no indications a long-term extension is on the table here in Pittsburgh. The Penguins are in the mushy middle but closer to the bottom than the top. Keeping a player like Pettersson doesn’t make much sense. — Rob Rossi
GO DEEPER
Penguins Today: A Pettersson dilemma and a convergence of Pittsburgh’s Stanley Cup GMs
Preseason bold prediction: William Eklund will lead the team in scoring
Outlook: So far, not so good. But there’s time …
With his 18 assists and 23 points, Eklund is second in those categories to Mikael Granlund so the possibility does exist of the 22-year-old overtaking the veteran. The chances of that will greatly increase if the Sharks were to move Granlund before the trade deadline. Eklund can build up his goal total as he has only five in 28 games, and he may have to hold off a hard-charging Macklin Celebrini who’s nearly at a point per game since returning from injury. But the left wing in his third full season has become the front-line core player the Sharks imagined when taking him at No. 7 in the 2021 draft. — Eric Stephens
Matty Beniers is struggling to produce in his third full season with the Kraken. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
Preseason bold prediction: Matty Beniers will score 30 goals
Outlook: Not happening
I’m ready to capitulate early on this prediction. After what appeared to be a snake bit, sophomore slump campaign for the 2023 Calder winner, the gifted Kraken center has somehow remained in shooing-percentage hell this season. Through 27 games before Friday, Beniers had scored just four times on 51 shots and is carrying a 7.8 percent shooting clip that’s less than half of the conversion rate he managed in his electric rookie season. Beniers would have to score at a 44-goals per 82-game pace over the balance to hit 30, which is a massive stretch for a player that has scored just 19 goals in his most recent 104 games played through Thursday. — Thomas Drance
Preseason bold prediction: Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway’s success will lead to more offer sheets
Outlook: Lock it in
I’m more confident about this now than I was at the start of the season. Broberg missed 12 games with an injury, but when in the lineup, he’s been arguably the Blues’ best defenseman. Likewise, Holloway has perhaps been their most versatile productive forward. There may not be an identical situation where two talented players are available on a team — in this case the Oilers — that can’t afford to match an offer sheet. But with the way Broberg and Holloway are playing, the vultures will be out. — Jeremy Rutherford
GO DEEPER
How this summer’s stunning offer-sheet saga has worked out for Oilers and Blues
Preseason bold prediction: Andrei Vasilevskiy will be a Vezina Trophy finalist
Outlook: It’s a long shot
Vasilevskiy may have more two-way support this season, but he isn’t in the Vezina Trophy race right now. That’s a conversation led by the likes of Connor Hellebuyck, Lukas Dostal and Filip Gustavsson. Vasilevskiy is having a fine season so far — he has saved 3.97 goals above expected through 20 games while earning a .909 save percentage — but those numbers aren’t sparkling like some of the league’s best or even his peak years. The season isn’t over yet and he tends to heat up as the pressure rises, but he has a lot of ground to make up. — Shayna Goldman
Preseason bold prediction: Mitch Marner will score 40 goals
Outlook: Still in play
Marner had one goal in October. Then, a heater shooting the puck in November. He had eight goals in 12 games. Marner is still off the 40-goal pace though. He appears headed more for his third 30-goal season than his first 40-goal campaign. If head coach Craig Berube gets his way though and Marner starts shooting the puck more aggressively, there’s still a chance Marner comes close to or even hits 40 goals. During the back half of the 2021-22 season, Marner shot the puck more aggressively than ever and punched in 29 goals during a 46-game stretch. That’s what he’ll need the rest of the way to hit 40. — Jonas Siegel
Utah Hockey Club
Preseason bold prediction: Utah will finish as one of the NHL’s highest-scoring teams
Outlook: Not happening
Did anyone here whiff as much as this prediction? Other than an early flurry to start the season, Utah has struggled mightily to score this season, sitting 23rd in goals per game and 24th on the power play through Thursday. A lot of the Hockey Clubbers’ young talent has failed to break through, with Logan Cooley on pace for fewer than 20 goals and a lot of their 20-goal producers from last season coming up well short of those projections in the early going. Connor Ingram’s struggles in goal and injuries on defense have hurt their record, but regressing offensively to this extent is the bigger surprise given the cast up front. — James Mirtle
Preseason bold prediction: Elias Pettersson will bounce back and lead the team in scoring
Outlook: Still in play
It certainly hasn’t been an out-of-the-gate, no-doubt-about-it, he’s-back-like-John-Wick level bounce back for Pettersson this season, but the star Canucks center has found his form of late. He’s back to controlling play and still has a chance to lead all Vancouver players in scoring. Through Thursday, he ranked first in points and points per game among Canucks forwards, but what I didn’t expect was Quinn Hughes to hit even another level of preposterous form this season. Through Thursday, Hughes was holding a six-point lead over Pettersson in the point production department this season, so Pettersson still has some catching up to do. — Thomas Drance
Preseason bold prediction: Pavel Dorofeyev will finish second on the team in goals
Outlook: Still in play
The hope with this prediction was that Dorofeyev would take advantage of a bigger opportunity than he’s had to this point in his career, and that’s exactly what has happened through two months. Through Thursday, Dorofeyev was second on the Golden Knights with 12 goals, only one behind team leader Ivan Barbashev. He has contributed both at even strength and on the top power-play unit, and has been an integral part of Vegas’ seventh-ranked offense. — Jesse Granger
Preseason bold prediction: The Pierre-Luc Dubois deal will pay off
Outlook: Still in play
There’s plenty of road left before I can do a victory lap, but I feel good about predicting good things for Dubois. Is he playing to a 70-point pace, as I said he would? Not quite. Has he been a major catalyst for the Caps’ early-season success? Absolutely. He’s crushing most of his minutes as the 2C, which allowed Washington to set up favorable matchups for Alex Ovechkin’s line, and has helped Connor McMichael get off to a scorching start. So far, so good. — Sean Gentille
Preseason bold prediction: Nikolaj Ehlers will play out the season and then walk as a UFA
Outlook: Still in play
Ehlers is a point-per-game player now, mostly because he’s been every bit as good on the top power play as advertised: helpful on entries, good in the high slot, creative with options in the zone. He’s also hurt, nursing a lower-body injury suffered against Vegas on Nov. 29. It’s difficult to say what any of this means for his future, though. I believe the “self-rental” option is still on the table for Winnipeg. If recent call-up Brad Lambert bursts offensively, Ehlers could become a trade chip. (For the right return, it might not take that Lambert burst.) An extension does not appear to be a front-burner, midseason option, but must also be considered a possibility. — Murat Ates
(Top photo of Red Wings center Dylan Larkin celebrating after scoring a goal: Brian Bradshaw Sevald / Imagn Images)
Jay Williams has reached what he calls an “inflection point.”
“If I can’t be the best version of myself, then I can’t be that for the people that I love,” Williams said. “I think that’s what I’m processing now.”
Williams wears many hats these days: ESPN college basketball analyst, a regular contributor to the network’s shows like “Get Up” and “College GameDay,” co-founder of a media company, dad to a son and two daughters and a husband to his wife, Nikki. Taking on all these different roles has led to a recent self-discovery journey for Williams.
“From a self developmental point of view,” he said, “I’m leaning into a lot right now.”
Williams played for coach Mike Krzyzewski at Duke for three years, where he won a national championship and was named the consensus National Player of the Year in 2002. The Chicago Bulls selected him with the second pick in the draft that year, with the hope that Williams would become a franchise-changing guard. But in 2003, a motorcycle crash left him with severe injuries. He was 21 years old. After the crash caused his pro career to end early, Williams did what he knew best: Put his head down and barreled through, settling on a new path in broadcasting and attacking it with the same intensity and competitiveness he had as a player.
But recently Williams has started to take a step back and reflect on each area of his life, putting much thought into what the most successful way to juggle it all could look like.
“I got out of my accident because work became basketball,” he said. “That’s how I attacked it. That’s not to say I’ve lost any of my passion or ambition for my work because I haven’t. That’s a huge part of who I am, but learning how to channel that same intentionality or try to learn how to better channel that intentionality to my kids, to my family, and to myself, that’s the inflection point.”
Just as Williams’ understandings about himself have evolved with time, the lessons he’s taken away from his experiences have, too. Here are five tools he’s been leaning on:
Learn to love the process
Somewhere on the sidelines of a college game 20 years ago, you might’ve found Williams doing tongue exercises to improve his speech and diction.
“I can show you what they were,” he said, placing his index finger and middle finger in his mouth. “You do an aaaaghhhh.”
Following the motorcycle accident, Williams worked as an analyst for CBS Sports Network before joining ESPN. When he was starting out, he spoke with a lisp and tended to rush through his sentences, so ESPN paired him with a voice coach to work on enunciation.
But as he was carrying his own camera equipment into games and working on his speech, Williams questioned this kind of work compared to the playing career he had envisioned.
“That was hard for me,” he said. “It was hard for me not to be jealous. Not to be envious. And I missed it.”
As a player, Williams had leaned on a lesson he learned from Krzyzewski: Learn how to fall in love with the process. Over time, Williams started to apply that mentality to the work he put into his media career. He thought to himself: How do I fall in love with this process? How can I fall in love with this work?
“I think that’s when all those things started to translate for me,” Williams said.
Intentionality is powerful
On the way to drop his daughter off at kindergarten in the morning, Williams recites affirmations with her, hoping to teach her about positive self-talk. She is at a new school with new friends and Williams wants to keep a good mindset towards it all, so together, they repeat:
I’m strong. I’m courageous. I’m gentle. I’m kind.
Williams said some of this comes from his mother.
“She always told me that I have to believe,” he said. “It was always her thing. She would always recite lines to me about, ‘If you don’t believe in yourself, who’s going to believe in you?’”
On Williams’ wrist is one of his first tattoos: Believe.
Set time for yourself
When Williams reminds himself of his affirmations, it’s his signal to take a few moments to engage in practices he knows can help his headspace.
The first is breath work.
“It doesn’t matter where I am, it doesn’t matter what the situation is,” he said. “What you’re doing is you’re releasing a lot of that stress and a lot of that anxiety through your breathing.”
He has a specific routine where he tries to inhale as much as possible before exhaling as much as possible. He repeats that process 30 times. On his last exhale, he releases all of his breath and then proceeds to hold his breath for as long as he can.
He also has a visualization tool he uses during the routine.
“What I do is I let those thoughts come and I let them go with each breath,” he said. “And as I breathe, I think of a string that I have attached to the top of my head and it elongates my body. When I breathe, I take it through my diaphragm and think about straightening myself out and I just close my eyes. And I think just through breath work for me, in that moment, all that other stuff disintegrates.”
Williams constantly reminds himself to “stop and slow down,” so at home he has a box where he and Nikki place their phones each night for an hour and a half, just to get away.
“We sit and we eat with our kids,” he said. “And I think (Nikki) has been very good at forcing me and challenging me to do things.”
When in doubt, Charles Barkley it
While speaking about how he views his life and the way he parents his kids, Williams brought up the triangle offense. If he were to explain in full detail the mechanics of the triangle offense to his audience on TV, the viewers would probably get lost. Instead, he might just point out a screen that contributed to a player scoring. Williams calls this “Charles Barkleying,” after the famed NBA analyst known for his sense of humor and accessibility.
“The metamorphosis process of going through my life, I try to Charles Barkley it,” he said. “I try to simplify it.”
He started to do that at Duke. One of his weaknesses was that he would get too emotionally attached to one play. Describing himself as “type A” and a “little bit of a control freak,” Williams would get derailed if a play didn’t go exactly as he visualized it in his mind, and the play would rattle around in his head.
“If I carry that negative connotation to the next play,” he said, “I’m not in the right mindset to accomplish the next play.”
He learned the best thing for him was to watch a lot of film and confront his mistakes after the game. The film simplified things for him. It allowed him to clearly see what was going on and how to fix it, giving him confidence the next time it happened.
He tries to apply the same principles to his life, breaking everything down in a journal.
“When the day was over, I would take a pen and paper and I would think it through,” he said. “‘What happened today? Where did I go wrong? How did I see it coming into it? Was I truly prepared for that? Was I more reactive? How can I do that one differently?’ I kind of addressed the day in its totality at the end of the day.”
Keep an eye on the water levels of your buckets
Williams called the word balance a trigger for him.
“I think it is a ghost-like term that people casually toss out there like a fish line,” he said.
To him, true balance is unattainable.
Williams views the different parts of his life as buckets that he has to remember to fill. And by viewing them as buckets, it helps reinforce the idea that having them all look the same is too much to worry about.
“When you’re running from fire to fire to fire with buckets of water, you inevitably don’t put out any of the fires,” he said. “Because by the time I pour a bucket of water on this fire, and I’m running back to the well to dip it in more water, there’s five more fires that just came out. And by the end of the day, I’m like, ‘Are any of the fires even out?’”
Instead of worrying about all the buckets in his life all the time – being a husband, being a father, being a broadcaster, being a businessman — he tries to just make sure one bucket doesn’t get too empty at the expense of another.
“There are some buckets that are less filled than others on certain respective days, but I think I have to know for myself that it’s going to be OK,” Williams said. “I can come back to a respective bucket and fill it up a little more to try to even it out. As long as I know that I’m doing my best and I’m also making it a priority that I have the energy to keep filling up those buckets, on a day to day basis, that’s what the brevity of the situation is for me. And that’s taken me a really long time to come to the realization that if I can’t do that, nothing is going to be OK.”
All of these ideas have helped Williams create a better awareness and are part of his ever-evolving process to try to show up as the best version of himself.
(Photo: Lance King / Getty Images)
The 2025 WNBA Draft will be headlined by UConn’s Paige Bueckers, who has been penciled in as the top pick ever since she decided to exercise her fifth year of eligibility. But beyond Bueckers, there is a deep pool of lead guards, scorers, and wings who are eager to make their impact at the next level.
Bueckers and several of her fellow draftees, including the Notre Dame and NC State duos, are still competing in the NCAA Tournament. UConn is seeking its first national championship since 2016 and first title for Bueckers. With so much left to accomplish, the draft seems far away, but the April 14 date in New York city is fast approaching, just eight days after the national championship.
Six WNBA general managers shared their candid opinions about the upcoming draft class with The Athletic before the NCAA Tournament began. They were granted anonymity to allow them to speak openly. On Wednesday, we’ll run another installment that includes their evaluations of frontcourt players such as Aneesah Morrow, Kiki Iriafen and Dominique Malonga.
(Players are listed in alphabetical order. Statistics current through Monday. Asterisks indicate a player has an additional year of college eligibility.)
Georgia Amoore | 5-6 guard | Kentucky
19.6 ppg, 6.9 apg, 36.7 mpg
“Great college basketball player. Can she do enough to be a rotational WNBA player who makes it to a second contract?”
“Georgia Amoore’s game will translate due to her ability to run a team and put her teammates in easy scoring situations due to her passing. She will excel in pick-and-roll situations and is a player with a very high basketball IQ.”
“It’s hard to succeed as a tiny, tiny guard, so size is just the main thing. If she can be an insane shooter off the dribble and with range, she has a chance.”
“She’s heady, does a ton of the (Steve) Nash stuff. She’s pretty smart in terms of knowing her limitations from a size perspective.”
“There’s no doubt she’s a scorer, she can shoot, she’s a playmaker. Point guards are at a premium. They’re hard to find.”
Georgia Amoore’s college career was outstanding 👏
🏀 First triple-double in VT history
🏀 Led Hokies to first ACC title and Final Four appearance
🏀 All-time assists leader for VT (656)
🏀 Tied Kentucky record for most points in a game (43)
🏀 2x First-team All-ACC & 1x… pic.twitter.com/mLxsboWkSH— espnW (@espnW) March 23, 2025
Paige Bueckers* | 5-11 guard | UConn
18.7 ppg, 4.8 apg, 63.4 TS%
“My only concerns with Paige are physical. If she can stay healthy, I think she’s an All-Star level talent. She can play with or without the ball which makes her super valuable. She scores at all three levels. She’s big and tall and long enough to survive defensively. I think her offense is better than her defense, but it’s hard to find things not to like about Paige.”
“Despite the fact that people always want to seem to talk about some potential flaws, (she’s)
still the most sure thing today in this draft.”
“The adjustment to the speed and physicality of the game will determine her immediate impact.”
“Great leader. She’s incredibly poised. She’s prepared, pro-ready and so impressive, on and off the court. A franchise foundational player.”
Sonia Citron | 6-1 wing | Notre Dame
14.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 38.1 3-PT%
“Total package player. … She’s got three layers to her scoring, she can defend multiple positions, her IQ is off the charts.”
“Hard to not like her in terms of what the game needs, the 3-and-D. “
“Very, very poised. Obviously shoots the ball tremendously well. She’s got the whole package. The game seems to have slowed down for her.”
“Big fan, don’t know the ceiling, don’t know the star power, but in terms of being a productive player on a winning team and raising the floor of your team, pretty big fan.”
Azzi Fudd* | 5-11 guard | UConn
13.2 ppg, 1.2 spg, 44.8 3-PT%
“She shoots it well but the sample size is so small. Not sure how she impacts the game outside of the threat of her shooting, and I don’t think her shooting numbers are off the charts either, so I’m a little worried about her having a bigger reputation than the actual impact.”
“Health is the No. 1 thing for Azzi. She has all the tools to be a great pro. It really comes down to her health. Great shooting, great defender.”
“She could be a really interesting complementary rotation player who can stretch it. Three-and-D potential player.”
Aziaha James | 5-9 guard | NC State
17.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.7 apg
“Really dynamic. Great finisher. Just gets downhill. Great defender. I think she’s going to be a really, really good guard in this league for a long time.”
“I could see her turning out to have an eight-year career. I could see her fizzling out and it just not working. I see her as a microwave scorer off the bench and those are necessary.”
“Her ability to adapt to defensive game plans against her when she gets to this next level will decide if she makes it or not.”
“A good combo guard, but might need to become more physical and stronger to be able to compete night in and night out in the WNBA.”
Olivia Miles* | 5-10 guard | Notre Dame
15.5 ppg, 5.9 apg, 40.1 3-PT%
“The second safest pick after Paige.”
“She’s definitely an exceptional passer. Her court vision in small spaces as well as full court is really, really special.”
“Big fan, especially if the shooting can continue to be where it’s at. I love the wiggle she has in her game. She’s got great feel, she’s got great change of pace. I love the combination of dribble, pass, shoot. I love her size at point guard. I think she can also probably play on and off the ball.”
“Incredibly dynamic. One of the best scorers I’ve seen in many years. At times, she’s taken out of the end of games defensively, but I think the defensive end is where she still has room to grow. Offensively, an absolute dynamo.”
Will Te-Hina Paopao become the latest Gamecocks player to be a first-round draft pick? (Aurelien Meunier / Getty Images)
Te-Hina Paopao | 5-9 guard | South Carolina
9.7 ppg, 2.9 apg, 37.1 3-PT %
“Solid college player. Clear 3-point shooter. Does she have enough to get by people and create at the next level?”
“Paopao has the ability to hit from long range. She has strong leadership qualities and is another high IQ player who can distribute the basketball.”
“Paopao is efficient offensively. Defends really well. You know Dawn (Staley)’s kids are going to come in and play their role, whatever they’re asked to do, no matter how big or how little. She really impacts the game on both ends of the floor.”
Saniya Rivers | 6-1 guard/wing | NC State
11.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 3.6 apg
“The good news for her is she can be a point guard. And if you can’t shoot, you better be playing point guard cause then you have the ball in your hands and you can survive a little bit more. A lot to like and a lot to question, but amazing tools to work with.”
“The most athletic guard-wing in the draft, but is there a place for a non-3-point shooter guard-wing in the WNBA?”
“The athleticism is mesmerizing. At times she gets a little bit out of control, so it’s just harnessing that and continuing to get better at just picking her shots, picking when she’s gonna drive, when she’s gonna shoot the 3.”
“Great length from the wing position and the possibility of being an elite defender with her length and athleticism.”
🚨: NC State advances to the SWEET SIXTEEN for the sixth time in seven seasons‼️
No. 2 NC State defeated No. 7 Michigan State, 83-49.
Saniya Rivers became the first player in NC State program history to post a point-assist double-double in an NCAA tournament game, while Aziaha… pic.twitter.com/EYB86AsF8I
— Posther Hoops (@postherhoops) March 24, 2025
Shyanne Sellers | 6-2 wing | Maryland
14.2 ppg, 4.2 apg, 41.8 3-pt%
“I love her size, I love her athleticism. She’s got all the tools, she just sort of at times, comes in and out. Any kid that’s playing for Brenda Freese for four years you know is disciplined on both ends of the floor.”
“She’s a scorer, she can play probably the two and the three and (stretch) four. Availability is often the best ability, and she’s had a little bit of a rocky year with some of the injuries that she’s had. But she’s also shown a really great resiliency in being able to bounce back.”
“Is she reliable or dependable with her scoring ability at the next level? Questions about her current health may have her drop in the draft, and ultimately, what is her best position at the W level?”
Hailey Van Lith | 5-7 guard | TCU
17.7 ppg, 5.5 apg, 1.2 spg
“A tough kid with a high basketball IQ. She can score from all three levels and is a player who, in clutch moments, you can get her the basketball and she can make something happen.”
“Hailey had success being a high-usage player. What will her role look like when she gets small windows in the W? How effective can she be in limited minutes early in her career, when she doesn’t have the ball?”
“So much grit. I love the fire that she brings when she steps onto the court. You know what you’re gonna get from her every single night. The question mark continues to be on the defensive end. She’s going to have to continue to get better. She’s never going to be the best athlete or the quickest, so she’s got to figure out how to pick her spots and be strategic in a way when she’s guarding players that might be a little bit bigger and faster than her.”
“She’s helped herself this year. She’s showing she can impact the game in different areas.”
(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Photos of Hailey Van Lith, Paige Bueckers and Olivia Miles: Ron Jenkins, Michael Reaves, Joe Buglewicz / Getty Images)
CLEARWATER, Fla. — Do you miss those robots yet?
We’ve spent the past five weeks watching them pop out of hiding, every time a catcher, hitter or pitcher tapped his head to ask his favorite robot umps: Where the heck was that pitch?
Then, almost instantaneously, a six-second animation would roll on the ballpark videoboard — and baseball’s spring training experiment with the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) challenge system would work its magic.
So now that it’s time to send those robots back from whence they came — namely, the minor leagues — as spring training fades into the rearview mirror, how’d that experiment go? That’s what we’re here to tell you, because over the past month, we’ve pretty much seen it all.
We’ve seen walks turn into strikeouts.
We’ve seen strikeouts turn into walks.
We’ve seen strikeouts turn into home runs.
We’ve seen fans boo those poor, well-meaning robots.
And in the midst of it all, Alex Cora revealed his worst robotic nightmare.
“My first thought,” the Red Sox manager said this spring, “was, like: Bases loaded … 3-2 count … ninth inning in the World Series … tie game.”
We’ll pause here to let you cue that imaginary 4K video in your brain. Now … here comes that pitch.
“Yeah!” Cora bellowed, pumping his fist. “Strike three! (A smile. A shake of the head.) No! Ball four! That’s where my mind went. And I was, like: Oh, shoot!”
OK, hold on. Don’t shoot. This was only a test. No World Series games were played this spring. It was only spring training, with an electronic ball-strike challenge system running in baseball’s test lab. It was all just for feedback purposes. We won’t see this technology in real games before next year at the earliest — and probably longer.
But that scene in Cora’s brain could happen someday, if — OK, let’s say when — this challenge system gets unleashed in games that count. So is that what we want? Is that what baseball wants? We’ll discuss those questions shortly.
First, though, we’re here to answer all your big questions — not to mention all the big questions you forgot to ask. So what did we learn from watching those robot umps this spring? Let’s discuss!
J.T. Realmuto likes ABS as a hitter. As a catcher? Not so much. (Nathan Ray Seebeck / Imagn Images)
Does the technology work?
Technology is a beautiful thing. You cue it up. You program the robots. And it does what it’s built to do.
A strike is a strike. A ball is a ball. And if you don’t like how the humans called that pitch, you challenge — and the robots end the debate.
Major League Baseball declined The Athletic’s request for specific data from this spring. But it has spent four years honing the ABS system in the minor leagues — and before that in the independent Atlantic League.
It has tweaked the definition of the strike zone multiple times. It experimented with different ways to match the height of the zone to the height of the players. And after all those tweaks, the league was comfortable that the technology was ready for its midterm exam.
“We have made a lot of progress in the way the system works,” MLB’s vice president of on-field strategy, Joe Martinez, said at a media-demonstration session last month, “and also the way we weave the system into the gameplay. And we’re at a point in Triple A where we have a system that the players like, the coaches like, the umpires like and the fans like.”
So this was the logical next step — to find out whether big leaguers liked it, but also to get feedback on what they didn’t like. I can help with that, because I’ve been asking the same questions all spring.
I thought the most interesting responses came from catchers, because they lived in Robot World on both offense and defense.
“I like it as a hitter,” said the Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto. “I don’t really like it as a catcher as much, just because I think it takes part of the game away, part of the catcher position. Framing is still going to matter, but it’s not going to be as big of a deal. So that part I don’t like. But as a hitter, I do like having the consistent strike zone.”
Tigers catcher Jake Rogers also thought that as the ABS strike zone establishes its presence in the sport, hitters will be the biggest fans — but not for the same reason.
“There are going to be a lot more balls called than normal, I think,” Rogers said, “because the strike zone is a lot smaller.”
Since veteran major-league umpires were told by the league just to call their normal zone, to get ready for a season without ABS, players found themselves living in a world with two different strike zones this spring.
“With ABS, I think the bottom of the zone drastically changes,” Rogers said. “It was a lot higher, and I think the top goes a lot lower. … So on the pitches that are close to the edge, the umpires are just going to call a ball and rely on us to challenge.”
But remember, the robot umps don’t know any of that. They just call the balls and strikes they’re programmed to call, whether Laz Diaz would call them the same or not. And hey, that reminds us of something important:
Big-league umpires are better at this than you think.
FanGraphs’ Davy Andrews pointed me toward Statcast data on Baseball Savant that shows how much ball-strike calls — by human umps — have gotten better in recent years. Here’s a look, in five-year increments.
| YEAR | ACCURACY |
|---|---|
|
2024 |
92.53% |
|
2019 |
91.54% |
|
2014 |
88.33% |
|
2009 |
85.15% |
(Source: Baseball Savant)
In 2024, that accuracy percentage actually ticked down — from 92.81 percent in 2023 to 92.53. Nevertheless, there were over 28,000 more correct calls last season than in 2008, the first year of available data. So let’s give those humans a big hand. That works out to over 1,000 more correct calls a week!
So is it worth using technology to chip away at the 7.5 percent or so that human umps are still getting wrong? That might depend on the answer to our next question …
Does the strike zone feel like the strike zone?
What’s a strike?
For almost 150 years, that has been the question that defined baseball. Hasn’t it? It all starts with the strike zone.
Too bad the strike zone you’ll find in your rule book isn’t the same thing as the strike zone that has been called by humans for pretty much that entire century and a half. Essentially, human umps call an oval-shaped zone — no matter how many times they’ve seen that rectangle in the rule book.
So why did baseball just spend spring training fiddling with a system that will not be used in a single regular-season game this year? It was all about the robot-ump strike-zone experience — “to get people some reps of experiencing the system,” Martinez said, “and seeing how it feels, particularly how the strike zone feels.”
In other words, it all comes down to this:
Every hitter, catcher and pitcher has an idea in his head of what a strike is and what a ball is. So for ABS to work — really work — the electronic strike zone has to feel essentially like the zone baseball players have in their heads.
You know what won’t work? If that zone feels just like some sort of technological creation.
So which was it this spring? Uh, let’s just say it’s a work in progress.
Rogers said that Tigers players had a chance to speak to commissioner Rob Manfred in person this spring. Guess what they asked about most when ABS came up? The strike zone.
“That’s the big thing we talked about with Rob,” Rogers said. “It becomes about: What is the strike zone? It’s the oldest rule in baseball. And then, when you start kind of tweaking it a little bit, it becomes different.”
Here’s what confused players the most, he said. As part of the ABS education process this spring, players were given an iPad that allowed them to review every pitch of a game, to see if the robot umps would have called it a strike or a ball. But they continued to get their usual postgame reports, looking at whether those same pitches were in or out of the zone — and they weren’t the same.
“It’s crazy,” Rogers said, “because on ABS, you look at the iPad … and (the pitch is) half an inch below the zone. And then we get our report back with the old strike zone, and it’s a full ball in the zone. So it’s like, wow, it looks like a strike. It feels like a strike. And all of a sudden, you’re thinking: Do you challenge, or do you not challenge? So you go back and look at it, and it’s a ball (on ABS).”
There’s a reason for that — even beyond the different technologies involved. Human umps are still being graded with a buffer zone that gives them wiggle room if a pitch is barely off the rule-book strike zone. But robot umps don’t know a buffer from a muffler. So a ball is either in the zone or out. Period.
Is that good? Is that what we all want? You won’t be surprised to learn that one player with some thoughts on that topic is Max Scherzer.
In his recent appearance on the Starkville podcast with me and Doug Glanville, Scherzer said one thing he’d like to see is “a buffer zone, maybe around the challenge system. So hey, if you challenge and it’s in the buffer, the call stands. So you keep human power, the human element, still with the umpire.
“I’m OK changing the call when it’s an egregious call,” the Blue Jays’ future Hall of Famer said. “But when we’re talking about a quarter of an inch that you can’t really detect it, I don’t necessarily know if that makes the game better.”
But when I mentioned Scherzer’s idea to an executive from an American League club, he swatted it away like a mosquito. What’s the point of honing the best technology, he wondered, if we’re then going to ignore it by dropping in a buffer zone?
“I think they’ve done enough research on it to come up with the right zone,” he said. “So I don’t think there needs to be a buffer zone. I think this ABS zone is very clear, very definitive. So I would not be in favor of a buffer zone. It’s just, that’s the strike zone. You’ve got to draw the line somewhere.”
What the powers that be would say is: What’s the difference between this and tennis? If a ball lands a 16th of an inch outside the line in the U.S. Open finals, you know what they’d call that — using the same Hawk-Eye technology? Out.
But when I ran that logic past one player this spring, he said: “This is not tennis. Tennis doesn’t have a catcher, right? There’s a reason why.”
GO DEEPER
Trea Turner challenges first pitch of the day from Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer would like to see a “buffer zone” incorporated into the ABS challenge system. (Jonathan Dyer / Imagn Images)
Did fans really boo the robots?
Boooooo.
Wait. Did I just hear what I thought I heard? It was a Feb. 28 game between the Phillies and Red Sox. Phillies center fielder Brandon Marsh had just taken a 2-and-2 fastball, slightly off the inside corner, from Red Sox ace Garret Crochet. So the count was full. Or was it?
Boston catcher Seby Zavala tapped his helmet. The robot-ump challenge cartoon played on the videoboard — and turned that ball three into strike three, much to the delight of …
Nobody watching this in the Phillies’ home ballpark, apparently — at least judging by that sound: Boooooo.
An inning later, there were still more boos when Realmuto and Red Sox prospect Marcelo Mayer challenged back-to-back pitches in the same at-bat, and both were called balls by the robot ump, handing Mayer a five-pitch walk.
“Did I really hear those fans booing the robot?” I asked Realmuto later.
“Well, it’s Philly, so there’s no telling what they were booing,” he said. “I think they were booing the batter for challenging. I know that they booed that. And then they also booed when I challenged and it ended up being a ball. So yeah, I guess they were booing the robot.”
How cool is it to win a challenge? The thrill of victory!
Dylan Carlson, aka the MVC (Most Valuable Challenger). (Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
A minor-league manager told me last year that there was a lot more riding on these challenges than balls and strikes.
“It’s like a baseball IQ test for the players,” he said. “You really find out who knows the strike zone and who doesn’t.”
So what did we learn about baseball IQ this spring? That catchers (of course) are baseball geniuses, the group that got the most challenges correct … and pitchers, um, not so much. But the hitters? According to preliminary data, they were somewhere in the middle.
That isn’t all we learned, though. For the hitters who consistently aced their challenges, that thrill of victory was the coolest thing ever.
Heading into this spring, Orioles outfielder Dylan Carlson didn’t figure he’d challenge much. But that was before he turned into the MVC (Most Valuable Challenger) of the whole darned spring.
In a span of a week and a half, he challenged four called third strikes — and got all four overturned. Two of them came in one game against the Twins. Three of them were on 3-2 pitches, so they magically transformed strikeouts into walks. And the fourth was on a 2-2 pitch, which canceled a strikeout and led to another walk.
And after that, he said with a laugh, “They kind of gave me the green light to use it whenever I wanted.”
So Carlson went into the final weekend of spring training with more than twice as many walks (eight) as strikeouts (three). If this hadn’t been The Spring of the Robot Ump, he’d have had more strikeouts (seven) than walks (four). And his on-base percentage would have been over 100 points lower (at .351 instead of .459).
You think that guy is a fan of this robot-ump thing, or what?
“For me personally,” he said, “just the swings — going from strikeouts to getting on base — a lot of those were leading off innings. So it kind of changes the whole inning in some ways. You get a leadoff runner on, right? Then it’s go time. So it’s been interesting, for sure.”
All spring, I’ve watched players challenge, then turn their attention to the ABS cartoon on the videoboard. They couldn’t have been paying closer attention if that board was telling them whether they’d just won 10 million bucks. So I asked Carlson to describe the feeling — of paying rapt attention to that animation and then finding out he was right … again.
“So actually, every time I’ve challenged,” he said, “I’ve asked the catcher too: ‘Hey, was that a strike?’ And every time they’ve all said yes. So I’ve been a little nervous looking up at the board. But fortunately, they’ve all gone my way.”
Which beats the alternative, obviously. Speaking of which …
How brutal is it to lose a big challenge? The agony of defeat!
Even in subdued spring training, real humans are playing. And sometimes, their future is riding on these games. So when you’re a pitcher, on the fringe of a big-league roster (or hoping to get there someday), and you lose a challenge, is that just a “get-the-call-right” moment? Or is it more?
Yankees manager Aaron Boone thinks it can often be more. There is always an emotional component to these games. And just last week, he saw a game change on a challenge — and a swing of emotion.
It was the sixth inning of a game against the Red Sox. Right-hander Geoff Hartlieb was on the mound. Pitching with a two-run lead, Hartlieb got the first two hitters out, then thought he’d dotted the outside corner with a 2-and-2 fastball to Kristian Campbell.
The home-plate ump, Roberto Ortiz, pumped his fist. Strike three. Campbell had other ideas and tapped his helmet. The ABS animation rolled. The robots ruled the pitch was a millimeter off the plate. So this inning wasn’t over. Want to guess what happened next?
On the next pitch, Campbell walked. Then the next hitter, Masataka Yoshida, pumped a game-tying homer. Boone was steaming.
“Strike three, pitcher walking off the mound,” Boone grumbled the next day. “Oh. Challenge. Overturned. So it’s like, you’ve got a pitcher getting out of an inning. Makes a pitch. Walking off. Boom. Oh, no. Next pitch, home run.
“I just don’t like it, honestly,” he said. “I feel like the umpires are getting so good — and look, I know I’m the poster child, sometimes, for arguing — but literally, sometimes I’m arguing when they’re missing by, like, (a fraction of an inch). But I feel like more and more, these umpires are really good. And just the frivolous challenge — like the 1-1 pitch in the second inning. It’s stop … ball … challenge … 2-and-1 … no wait, 1-and-2. I just don’t like it.”
So, because he brought this up …
A moment of silence for managerial ejections
There once was a time when I would have paid to go to the ballpark and watch Lou Piniella, Bobby Cox or Don Zimmer get booted from a game by their favorite men in blue. Old-school baseball didn’t get more entertaining than that.
But now? We’re in serious jeopardy of never seeing another manager ejected from any game again — if those robot umps take over the world.
We’ve already gotten a preview of where this could be heading, thanks to instant replay. As recently as 2011, there were nearly 50 ejections across MLB solely because of calls on the bases, according to research by Retrosheet founder Dave Smith. Then replay arrived in 2014 — and by 2019, there was only one ejection, over a call on the bases, all season.
So the good old-fashioned managerial ejection tirade was already in trouble even before the looming arrival of ABS in any form. Ejection legend Bobby Cox once got thrown out of 11 games in one season. Dave Roberts has been managing for a decade — and has 12 ejections in his whole career.
According to Retrosheet, more than 70 percent of all ejections these days revolve around ball/strike “disagreements.” So what happens in a world where we suddenly start getting all the “big” ball/strike calls right? Will any of these managers ever get heaved out of a game again?
“I only get ejected once or twice a year anyway,” said the Tigers’ A.J. Hinch. “But you know, it’s funny. All the veteran managers have always told me: ‘Your job is to manage the game, not manage a game from your desk in your office.’ So yeah, you’re right. It’s getting harder and harder to get ejected. I mean, what do I argue about?”
But you’ll be heartened to know that Boone — the self-professed “poster boy” for arguing, and a guy who has led his league in ejections four seasons in a row — is not ready to concede his tirade days are over.
If this happens, I told him, he’ll never get thrown out of another game.
“That’s not true,” he promised. “I’ll find something.”
Phew!
Would ABS end manager ejections? Aaron Boone would like a word. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images)
What will broadcasters talk about?
You think it’s easy talking about baseball games into a microphone for three hours every night? It’s a great gig, but that doesn’t mean it’s easy. So perhaps you’ve noticed that there’s a certain topic that’s pretty much guaranteed to come up every darned game. By which I mean …
C’mon. That pitch is not a strike/ball. How could he miss that pitch?
Have you ever wondered how many broadcast hours the work of the home-plate umpire has consumed over the past 50 years? Might be a million hours. Possibly a billion. Does Statcast track that stuff? It should.
But now imagine how different the life of the average broadcaster might be if some sort of technology was invented that would get every ball-strike call right — or at least the biggest ball-strike calls right. I can assure you that thought occurred to many a broadcaster this spring … when that technology suddenly arrived.
So I sought out Larry Andersen, the always-entertaining radio color analyst for the Phillies, a guy who has been known to express a few (affectionate) opinions about men standing behind home plate wearing blue jackets.
The Athletic: “I don’t want to jump to any conclusions, but I’ve listened to you call games a few times. You don’t seem like you’re normally that happy with the umpires’ work beyond the plate. Would that be fair?”
Andersen: “That would be fair. I would say I’m not. But this is going to sound crazy, because they drive me nuts, but it’s gotten worse since they put the (strike-zone) box on TV.”
That, he said, is because now that there’s a depiction of the strike zone on the screen, it’s hard not to notice when a pitch misses that box “by 6 inches” and still gets called a strike. So guess what? He might mention that.
But Andersen also isn’t convinced (with good reason) that those TV boxes are totally accurate. Whereas the ABS rectangle is going to be basically 100 percent accurate, even if it might not correspond exactly to how humans call balls and strikes. So back to our original question.
TA: “So if we suddenly got every ball/strike call right in this sport, what would you talk about all night?”
Andersen: “Well, it would probably turn my wrath onto the players. And I don’t want to do that.”
TA: “Right. At least when you’re ripping the umpires, you’re a man of the people, because the people are with you on that. So if you weren’t ripping the umpires every night, what would happen?
Andersen: “It would really put a damper on my broadcasting career.”
So let’s ask this again, in a different context: Is that what you want? You know where to find me if you have some thoughts on that.
Thirteen of the 23 spring training ballparks were part of MLB’s ABS test. So, what’s next? (Mike Lang / Sarasota Herald-Tribune / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
Are we sure this is what we want?
All right, let’s end where we began — with Alex Cora’s Game 7 dream/nightmare.
Game 7 of the World Series. Two outs in the ninth. Bases loaded. Here comes the 3-2 pitch. It pops the mitt. Strike three. You just won the World Series. Or did you?
Here comes the challenge animation. Was that pitch really 1-78th of an inch off the plate? According to ABS, it was. So don’t pop that champagne yet. This game is tied – thanks to those emotionless robot umps.
“I think most people would say: Well, it’s a ball, so it should be called a ball, and if that’s what determines the World Series, you should still call it,” said an executive of one contender.
He then rolled back the clock two springs and brought up the arrival of the pitch clock. Didn’t we hear the same stuff about the pitch clock? Would we really let a postseason game end on a clock violation?
“So what you described could be a possibility,” he said. “But I think the likelihood of that happening is pretty low.”
Then again, it’s not zero. Do we really want a World Series decided by a pitch that’s literally the width of a hair off the plate? I asked that question of an AL exec. He swatted it away like a piece of lint.
“Maybe just get the call right,” he said. “I mean, that’s not the ideal use of the system, but I heard the same argument when we went to replay. Hey, play at the plate. It’s bang, bang. The umpire rules him out. But we go to a replay. We wait. No, he’s actually safe. Game’s over. You win the World Series. What’s the difference? It’s the exact same thing.”
Is it, though? Of course, most want to use technology to make the game better. Of course, we want to get as many calls right as possible. Why wouldn’t we?
But I’ve spent all spring listening to people wonder whether we’re really making the sport better by using technology to decide ball/strike calls that are so close, the human eye can’t even detect them. It all depends, said another AL exec, on what the true goal is.
“I think the functionality of the system is great,” he said. “And it has worked seamlessly. But I do wonder a little bit: What are we trying to accomplish?”
When the sport first began testing ABS, he said, one of the big goals was to try to create a fixed strike zone that could reduce the strikeout rate and create more balls in play. Great idea. Never got there. No matter how the league adjusted the zone, no one ever figured out a variation that made more action happen.
“So that was the initial intent of the automated strike zone,” the exec said. “It has now morphed to (something else.) So I’m wondering: Is the focus now to try to get as many calls right as possible? Because if that’s really the goal, is it worth it? I’m not quite sure.”
You know who else is asking that question? Max Scherzer.
“Go back and look at the (2024) postseason,” Scherzer said on Starkville. “Are we really talking about (anything that) happened with the home-plate umpires and strikes or balls? No, I don’t think so. So what problem are we really solving?”
He, too, has seen the data that shows home-plate umpires are more accurate than ever. So use this technology, he said. Just use it to grade the umpires and make them even more accurate. But don’t fix what isn’t broken.
“We’re not saying there’s a problem,” Scherzer said. “We said in the postseason, there wasn’t a problem. Do we really need to be trying to change a fundamental part of the baseball experience? Pitching? Catching? I don’t think so. So that’s where I’m skeptical. That’s where I think, as an industry, we just need to have a conversation.”
But guess what? No matter how that conversation goes, it’s not going to keep the robot umps from invading one of these years. So let’s embrace those robots — and even boo them just to see if robots have feelings. But between now and the day they arrive for good, let’s also ask that fundamental question:
What’s the true goal here? What are we trying to accomplish?
Technology is awesome. Robots are the future. And right calls are better than wrong calls. But is the sport truly better off if a World Series gets decided on a pitch 1-78th of an inch outside a robotized strike zone? The answers are so much harder than the questions.
(Top photo: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
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