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Coinbase, Robinhood: Examining The Impact Of Spot Bitcoin ETFs

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Coinbase, Robinhood: Examining The Impact Of Spot Bitcoin ETFs

The SEC approved nearly a dozen spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10 in what was heralded as a “watershed” moment for the crypto industry, opening the door for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding it. It’s widely expected that this approval and subsequent widespread access for institutions and retail investors will shape up to be one of the most bullish fundamental moments in Bitcoin’s history.

We have been anticipating this moment since 2019 when we stated: “One of the biggest hurdles for institutions, however, is not the idea of a world run on digital currencies, but rather the decentralization concept and the need for cryptocurrency storage. Institutional investors need to know the assets are secure, insured, and under the care of a trusted third party, per SEC rules, which requires advisers to keep client funds with a qualified custodian.”

With a first batch of spot BTC ETFs approved, it’s prudent to assess the potential impact to exchanges and platforms, given that exchanges will now be competing on fees with ETFs, while increasing BTC prices and the next halving serve as potential tailwinds for miners.

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Trading Volumes Have Declined Significantly for Coinbase, Robinhood

For exchanges and trading platforms, such as Coinbase and Robinhood, that allow direct ownership of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the ETF approval serves as a double-edged sword. The bull thesis is centered around how the approvals will help usher in a wave to new all-time highs for Bitcoin, and how that could translate into higher transaction revenues (which have declined significantly), while the main headwind and primary story is that the two may now be forced to compete on fees in the long run, which can keep transaction revenues depressed as trading volumes remain far below peak levels.

Coinbase has expressed no desire to change its fee structure to compete with ETFs in the immediate term, per President and COO Emilie Choi’s remarks in its Q3 earnings call:

Q: “Will Coinbase consider reducing transaction fees to make them more competitive with other platforms where ETFs are being traded at significantly lower prices?”

A: “We have no current plans to reduce transaction fees because of ETFs. If you just zoom out a little bit, spot ETF should be a positive catalyst for the entire crypto space. They should add credibility to the market, and we should see increased liquidity and market stability as we’ve seen with other asset classes such as gold.”

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Choi’s answer hinted towards a potential headwind to Coinbase’s model – market stability. Coinbase noted that in Q3, “crypto asset volatility, a driver of our trading business, continued to decline, and it reached levels that we haven’t measured since 2016.”

A majority of Q3 witnessed little to no volatility in Bitcoin prices – August saw one decline of more than (10%) and a 6% rise, but aside from that, prices were relatively stable. Volatility heightened in October as Bitcoin broke the $30,000 mark and ascended towards $35,000, while the remainder of Q4 witnessed relatively heightened volatility as well.

Due to stable crypto prices, Coinbase’s trading volume dipped more than (17%) QoQ and (52%) YoY to $76 billion in the quarter, while transaction revenues declined nearly (12%) QoQ and (21%) YoY to $289 million.

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Heightened crypto volatility is a primary driver of Coinbase’s trading business, so periods with less volatility, i.e. stability, correlate to lower trading volumes and transaction revenues. Coinbase noted that its October transaction revenue was $105 million (around 9% higher than Q3’s monthly average), but cautioned investors not to extrapolate that figure for Q4. If you do extrapolate that sum, Q4’s transaction revenues would fall between $310 million to $320 million, signaling flat to a low single-digit YoY decline in transaction revenue despite an ~80% rally in Bitcoin.

In a broader view, both trading volume and transaction revenue have declined significantly since peaking in Q4 2021, when Bitcoin made a round trip from $47,000 to new highs above $64,000 before pulling back to $47,000. Trading volumes in Q3 were nearly (83%) lower than Q4 2021, at $76 billion compared to $547 billion.

Transaction revenues similarly are down more than (87%) since then, with five straight quarters below $400 million. Transaction revenues accounted for more than 46% of Coinbase’s total revenue in Q3, so there is heightened risk to Coinbase’s model now that a fee-competitive asset class exists, as it may potentially draw away trading volume and thus transaction revenue via lower fees.

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Monthly transacting users have also declined (40%), from 11.2 million in Q4 2021 to 6.7 million in Q3 2023, with the decline accelerating over the past two quarters.

These trends in trading volumes and transaction revenues are not exclusive to Coinbase, as Robinhood is reporting similar weaknesses in both metrics.

Robinhood’s notional crypto trading volume was ~$6.8 billion in Q3, a (25%) QoQ and (53%) YoY decline. Since Q4 2021, trading volume has fallen (85%), interestingly nearly the exact percentage drawdown as Coinbase.

Transaction revenues peaked in Q2 2021 for Robinhood at $233 million, before plunging to $51 million the next quarter; unlike Coinbase, Robinhood did not see a second higher peak in transaction revenue. For Q3 2023, Robinhood reported $23 million in transaction revenue, representing a (26%) QoQ and (55%) YoY decline; unlike Coinbase, crypto transaction revenues are under 5% of Robinhood’s total revenue, so there is less risk from ETFs, as investors could choose to invest in the ETFs directly on Robinhood’s platform.

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Robinhood hinted that it is more willing to be competitive on fees, saying that it rolled out some UI changes in Q3 so its crypto customers “can clearly see the spreads that we offer on our crypto transactions. This makes it easier for customers to see their all-in cost of execution, compare it against other platforms and see how great of a deal Robinhood is giving them.” By focusing on offering a better deal than competitors, Robinhood is potentially limiting upside to transaction revenues via a lower average fee – its average fee rate in Q3 of 0.338% was more than 10% lower than Coinbase’s average fee rate of 0.380%.

With a basket of ETFs now approved, Robinhood and Coinbase will have to compete on fees, as certain classes of investors are likely to choose ETFs over directly holding crypto for exposure due to trust. In just the first week after the approval of the ETFs, we’ve seen strong demand for top of the class funds: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has surpassed $1 billion AUM in its first week, a rare milestone that few ETFs share.

This is the first major speed bump for the bull case – how Coinbase and Robinhood can find ways to drive trading volumes higher, while maintaining higher fees than ETFs, to drive an inflection in transaction revenues.

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Retail trading accounts for more than 95% of Coinbase’s transaction revenue while accounting for less than 15% of trading volume – this suggests that to drive a meaningful uptick in transaction revenues, Coinbase will need to see strong growth in retail trading volumes. More volatile Bitcoin prices, or a run to higher highs, can serve as a catalyst for higher trading activity; however, Coinbase holds the view that the ETFs will lead to more stability in the market, meaning more investors may choose to buy and hold with less active trading.

Custodial Fee Benefits & Risk for Coinbase

The ETF approvals offer one direct benefit to Coinbase, in that it stands to earn custodial fees by serving as the custodian for 8 of the 11 approved ETFs, including the most popular of the class, the iShares Bitcoin Trust.

Coinbase will be providing custodial, trading and lending services to the ETF issuers, giving it a stream of revenue via fees for these services, but opening up the door to a significant concentration of risk. Custodial fees currently account for ~2.5% of Coinbase’s revenue at less than $16 million in Q3, leaving opportunity for significant growth via ETFs – however, impacts from ETFs will not be visible until Q1 earnings, given the recent launch date.

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Serving as the sole custodian for more than three-quarters of the approved ETFs heightens risks to investors, as a security compromise, hack or other operational failure on Coinbase’s part could significantly impact the ETF’s value or increase difficulty in accessing funds.

A multi-custodian approach helps safeguard investor assets by reducing the dependency on a single entity for providing all of the necessary services for an ETF to function. Therefore, it is likely that these ETFs, and other approved ETFs, will diversify away from relying on Coinbase as a sole custodian to having multiple custodians. This could reduce custodial fees should Coinbase lose its status as custodian for more than 75% of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Conclusion

The approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs is expected a game-changer for crypto, as it is widely believed that the approval and subsequent widespread access for institutions and retail investors will shape up to be one of the most bullish fundamental moments in Bitcoin’s history.

To attempt to size the demand the ETFs may create, Grayscale has $18 billion assets under management, and iShares has surpassed $1 billion already. If we assume over the long run that these Bitcoin ETFs average $5 to $8 billion AUM, this could add an additional $55 to $90 billion in demand for a limited supply of Bitcoin. As a reminder, Bitcoin is limited to 21 million Bitcoins and the next halving occurs in 2024. Halving can lead to a higher value for Bitcoin as it reduces the number of new bitcoins being generated by the network.

A push to new all-time highs for Bitcoin sits at the core of the bull thesis for crypto platforms such as Coinbase, as higher prices theoretically would lead to higher volatility and thus higher trading volumes and higher transaction revenues. Even with Bitcoin’s 80% push back to the high $40,000 level, Coinbase’s clues suggest that transaction revenues may not meaningfully accelerate in the high-teen to low-20% range.

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Given this substantial decline in trading volume and resulting declines in transaction revenue for both Coinbase and Robinhood, the bull case centered around ETF approval ushering in strong revenue growth is weakened. There are many moving parts with how the ETFs will alter the crypto landscape, but unless both platforms witness trading volume more than double over the next few quarters, it is hard to see how this creation of a fee-competitive environment can serve as a tailwind to revenue growth over the short to medium-term.

If you own crypto stocks or Bitcoin, or are looking to own crypto stocks and Bitcoin, we encourage you to attend our weekly premium webinars, held every Thursday at 4:30 pm EST for premium members to discuss how to navigate the broad market, as well as various stock entries and exits. We offer trade alerts plus an automated hedging signal. The I/O Fund team is one of the only audited portfolios available to individual investors. Learn more here.

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Bitcoin Crosses $94,000 For New All-Time High, Dogecoin Back At $0.40, Ethereum Flat: 'Short-Term Price Action Unpredictable,' Say Analysts

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Bitcoin Crosses ,000 For New All-Time High, Dogecoin Back At alt=

Cryptocurrency markets are trading higher, with Bitcoin recording a new all-time high at $94,040, according to Coingecko data.

Cryptocurrency Price     Gains +/-
Bitcoin BTC/USD  $93,312.89 +2.9%
Ethereum ETH/USD  $3,122.39 -0.3%
Solana SOL/USD  $243.76 +2.9%
Dogecoin DOGE/USD  $0.4053 +10%
Shiba Inu SHIB/USD  $0.00002537   +4%

Notable Statistics:

  • IntoTheBlock data shows large transaction volume increasing by 102.3% and daily active addresses up by 13%. Transactions greater than $100,000 are up from 8,261 to 11,812 in a single day. Exchanges netflows are down by 192%.
  • Coinglass data reports 98,554 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours for $289.96 million. Open interest spiked to $59.3 billion.

Notable Developments:

Top Gainers:

Cryptocurrency Price     Gains +/-
Bonk BONK/USD  $0.00005573 +14%
Hedera HBAR/USD  $0.1378 +13.5%
Goatseus Maximus GOAT/USD  $1.17  +12.8%

Trader Notes: With Bitcoin prices crossing all-time highs of $94,000, crypto trader Jacob Canfield predicts a minimum target of $97,000.

Crypto trader More Crypto Online hopes that Bitcoin can move forward toward $95,000 and then maybe $97,000. On the other hand, the trader remains cautious suggesting this could be a corrective range. He believes the structure lacks clear direction and momentum and is therefore very fragile.

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Santiment data noted that with Bitcoin peaking to all-time highs, whale transactions and retail FOMO could make the “short-term price action unpredictable, but the long-term indicators for Bitcoin looking quite sound.”

It also added that in any long-term bull market, dormant coins continuously moving back into circulation.

Read Next: 

Image: Shutterstock

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Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

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Who Let The DOGE Out? Why Is A Dogecoin At A $55 Billion Market Cap?

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Who Let The DOGE Out? Why Is A Dogecoin At A  Billion Market Cap?

Dogecoin’s market cap right now is almost $55B!

They said crypto would take over the world, but few imagined it would happen quite like this. Elon Musk’s appointment to President-elect Trump’s cabinet as head of the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has thrust a once-obscure “memecoin” onto the global stage. Cue commentators and citizens scrambling to undertake a crash course in Dogecoin.

How did this cryptocurrency, which began life as an in-joke, soar to the highest levels of government? Dogecoin was created by software engineers Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer. Markus, based in Portland, Oregon, wanted to create a cryptocurrency that was lighthearted and accessible, steering away from the complex, often intimidating world of Bitcoin.

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Meanwhile, Palmer, inspired by the viral “Doge” meme—a Shiba Inu dog captioned with Comic Sans text in broken English—suggested the name “Dogecoin” on Twitter. The meme’s playful energy captured the humor and absurdity that the creators wanted to inject into cryptocurrency.

Combining the open-source code of Bitcoin and Litecoin, Dogecoin was launched in December 2013. The Shiba Inu became its mascot, solidifying Dogecoin’s identity as the internet’s friendliest cryptocurrency. Its design deliberately embraced the humorous side of internet culture, and this whimsy attracted a community of fans. What began as a joke turned into something much larger than its creators ever expected.

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Why Is Dogecoin Important?

I love Pepsi’s mantra. The traditional idea of “brand” is out and “culture” is on target. In today’s fragmented media landscape, culture has become more important than brand as consumers increasingly seek personal connections and emotional resonance. Traditional advertising struggles to cut through the noise, making cultural relevance a critical strategy for brands aiming to engage audiences.

By aligning with cultural moments, movements, and experiences, companies can foster deeper emotional connections that go beyond product attributes. Younger consumers, in particular, value brands that reflect their values and participate meaningfully in their lives. Investing in cultural engagement not only strengthens brand equity but also drives long-term business performance, as it creates lasting relationships and keeps brands top of mind in an ever-evolving marketplace.

Dogecoin’s importance lies not only in its status as a cultural phenomenon but also in its contributions to cryptocurrency adoption. Unlike Bitcoin, which has a fixed supply, Dogecoin has an unlimited supply, with over 140 billion coins in circulation as of 2024. This design keeps the currency inflationary, which many argue encourages its use for everyday transactions rather than HODLing as a store of value.

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Its simplicity and friendly branding made Dogecoin accessible to people who might otherwise be daunted by cryptocurrency. Over the years, Dogecoin has found a number of niches; most notably, it’s been embraced for charitable causes and community-driven projects.

In 2014, the Dogecoin community raised $50,000 to send the Jamaican bobsled team to the Winter Olympics. This nod to the smash-hit Disney film Cool Runnings is a brilliant summary of Dogecoin and its community: fun, light-hearted, generous – and committed to making positive change in the real world. Similarly, the Doge community raised money for talented rookie Nascar driver Josh Wise, after he struggled to attract traditional sponsorship. Other initiatives show Doge’s more serious side, such as efforts to raise money for clean water in Kenya.

Projects like these are great examples of “decentralization” in action; they take a technical and – for many citizens – off-putting term and make it relevant to people’s lives in a way that’s both compelling and fun. No wonder than, in spite of its lighthearted origins, Doge has become a serious player in the market, consistently ranking among the top cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Its loyal and growing community is a key factor in its longevity and relevance.

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What’s Elon Got to Do With It?

Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, has played a pivotal role in Dogecoin’s rise to mainstream attention. Musk’s fascination with the cryptocurrency began in 2019 when he humorously declared Dogecoin his favorite cryptocurrency. Since then, he has frequently tweeted about Dogecoin, causing significant price fluctuations.

Musk’s tweets range from memes to statements about its utility. For instance, he has referred to Dogecoin as “the People’s Crypto” and suggested that it could be used for practical purposes like payments. Musk’s influence reached new heights in 2021 when he announced that Tesla would accept Dogecoin as payment for select merchandise, adding credibility to its use as a transactional currency.

However, Musk’s involvement has not been without controversy. Critics argue that his tweets contribute to market volatility, while others see his support as a catalyst for innovation. Regardless of these debates, Musk’s endorsement has brought Dogecoin into the spotlight, attracting new users and increasing its adoption.

Who Are the Core Contributors of DogeCoin?

Dogecoin’s development has always been community-driven. After its initial launch, its creators, Markus and Palmer, stepped away from active development. For a time, this left the project without dedicated maintainers, but the community stepped in to keep it alive.

In recent years, the Dogecoin Foundation, initially established in 2014, has been revived to support the project’s long-term growth. The foundation includes prominent figures like Dogecoin Core developer Ross Nicoll and Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, who serves as an advisor.

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The Dogecoin Foundation has also set up a development fund to reward contributors. In December 2022, the foundation allocated 5 million DOGE to this fund, ensuring that developers are incentivized to improve the network. This fund is overseen by core developers and community members, reflecting Dogecoin’s decentralized ethos.

Contributors to Dogecoin Core have focused on enhancing its functionality and security. The project’s GitHub repository remains active, with developers collaborating to improve the network’s scalability and usability. This ongoing effort underscores the community’s dedication to Dogecoin’s future.

I’ll Pay With DogeCoin

One of Dogecoin’s most practical uses is as a payment method, thanks in large part to the development of services like Bitrefill. Bitrefill is a platform that allows users to purchase gift cards, top up mobile phones, and even pay bills using cryptocurrency, including Dogecoin. This service bridges the gap between the crypto world and traditional commerce, making it easier for Dogecoin holders to spend their coins.

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Through Bitrefill, Dogecoin can be used to pay for everyday expenses, from groceries to entertainment. This utility enhances Dogecoin’s appeal as a functional currency rather than just a speculative asset. As more platforms like Bitrefill integrate Dogecoin, its adoption as a medium of exchange is likely to grow.

Why Is Dogecoin Important?

Dogecoin’s importance extends beyond its playful branding and celebrity endorsements. It represents the democratization of cryptocurrency, showing that digital assets can be fun, inclusive, and widely adopted. Its community-driven ethos sets it apart from other cryptocurrencies, emphasizing collaboration and accessibility.

Moreover, Dogecoin’s real-world applications are expanding. From charitable initiatives to practical use cases like payments, Dogecoin demonstrates the versatility of blockchain technology. Its low transaction fees and active development make it a viable option for micropayments, a feature that could drive adoption in emerging markets. And actually micropayments are important for developed economies too. I know some writers who would love to see publishers allow per-article access rather than yearly subscriptions, and if we can finally crack micropayments it’ll be transformative for all economies.

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Dogecoin’s story also challenges preconceived notions about what a cryptocurrency should be. While many projects focus on solving complex technical problems, Dogecoin’s success lies in its simplicity and relatability. This approach has inspired other projects to prioritize user experience and community engagement.

Where Do I Learn More?

While Dogecoin-specific conferences are rare, the cryptocurrency is often a topic of discussion at broader blockchain and crypto events. Dogecoin’s unique position as a community-driven project makes it a frequent subject in panels and workshops focused on decentralized finance and blockchain adoption.

Community meetups also play a significant role in Dogecoin’s ecosystem. Enthusiasts around the world organize events to share knowledge, celebrate milestones, and discuss developments. These gatherings highlight the community’s passion and its role in keeping Dogecoin relevant, and reflect the friendly, collaborative ethos of the currency itself

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Online forums and social media platforms like Reddit and Twitter serve as virtual meeting spaces for Dogecoin supporters. Subreddits like r/dogecoin are hubs of activity, where users discuss everything from price movements to charitable initiatives. This digital-first approach to community-building reflects Dogecoin’s origins in the best of internet culture.

More Than A Meme. It’s A Movement

Dogecoin is more than just a meme; it’s a movement. Its journey from a joke to a top cryptocurrency highlights the power of community, the influence of cultural icons like Elon Musk, and the potential for blockchain technology to reshape how we think about money. Whether you’re buying gift cards via Bitrefill, attending a meetup, or simply enjoying its whimsical charm, Dogecoin offers something for everyone.

As Dogecoin continues to evolve, its significance in the crypto world remains undeniable. It’s a testament to the idea that sometimes, the most impactful innovations start with a laugh. And in the case of Dogecoin, that laugh has united a global community and turned a Shiba Inu into a symbol of financial empowerment.

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What Is Toncoin (TON) Cryptocurrency? The Complete Guide

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What Is Toncoin (TON) Cryptocurrency? The Complete Guide

Buying Toncoin is a relatively straightforward process that can be completed in just a few steps:

Step 1: Choose a Cryptocurrency Exchange

The first step is to choose a reputable cryptocurrency exchange that lists Toncoin. Some popular exchanges that list Toncoin include Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken. Consider factors such as fees, security, and user interface when selecting an exchange.

Step 2: Sign Up and Verify Your Account

Once you’ve chosen an exchange, create an account by providing some basic information such as your name, email address, and password. You must also verify your identity through a know-your-customer (KYC) process, which typically involves uploading an image of a government-issued ID and a selfie.

Step 3: Deposit Funds

Next, deposit funds into your exchange account using a payment method accepted by the exchange, such as a bank transfer, card, or another cryptocurrency.

Step 4: Buy Toncoin

After depositing funds, navigate to the exchange’s trading platform and search for Toncoin (TON). Click “Buy” and enter the amount of Toncoin you want. You will need to decide whether to use a market order to buy instantly or a limit order to set the price at which you would like to buy it later. Review the transaction details and confirm the purchase.

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Step 5: Store Your Toncoin

Finally, transfer your Toncoin to a secure wallet to store your coins safely. While many people opt to keep their cryptocurrencies on the exchange they used to buy them, this isn’t always the safest way to store them as it requires trusting a third party to look after your assets. Instead, you can use a self-custody wallet to store your assets, which is generally safer if set up correctly.

Now you have successfully purchased TON, remember to stay up to date on the latest news and project developments so you can manage your investment effectively. As with any investment, it’s essential to always do your research, set a budget, and only invest what you can afford to lose.

This article is not an endorsement of any particular cryptocurrency, broker or exchange nor does it constitute a recommendation of cryptocurrency or CFDs as an investment class.  Cryptocurrency is unregulated in Australia and your capital is at risk. Trading in contracts for difference (CFDs) is riskier than conventional share trading, not suitable for the majority of investors, and includes the potential for partial or total loss of capital. You should always consider whether you can afford to lose your money before deciding to trade in CFDs or cryptocurrency, and seek advice from an authorised financial advisor.

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