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Coinbase, Robinhood: Examining The Impact Of Spot Bitcoin ETFs

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Coinbase, Robinhood: Examining The Impact Of Spot Bitcoin ETFs

The SEC approved nearly a dozen spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10 in what was heralded as a “watershed” moment for the crypto industry, opening the door for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding it. It’s widely expected that this approval and subsequent widespread access for institutions and retail investors will shape up to be one of the most bullish fundamental moments in Bitcoin’s history.

We have been anticipating this moment since 2019 when we stated: “One of the biggest hurdles for institutions, however, is not the idea of a world run on digital currencies, but rather the decentralization concept and the need for cryptocurrency storage. Institutional investors need to know the assets are secure, insured, and under the care of a trusted third party, per SEC rules, which requires advisers to keep client funds with a qualified custodian.”

With a first batch of spot BTC ETFs approved, it’s prudent to assess the potential impact to exchanges and platforms, given that exchanges will now be competing on fees with ETFs, while increasing BTC prices and the next halving serve as potential tailwinds for miners.

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Trading Volumes Have Declined Significantly for Coinbase, Robinhood

For exchanges and trading platforms, such as Coinbase and Robinhood, that allow direct ownership of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the ETF approval serves as a double-edged sword. The bull thesis is centered around how the approvals will help usher in a wave to new all-time highs for Bitcoin, and how that could translate into higher transaction revenues (which have declined significantly), while the main headwind and primary story is that the two may now be forced to compete on fees in the long run, which can keep transaction revenues depressed as trading volumes remain far below peak levels.

Coinbase has expressed no desire to change its fee structure to compete with ETFs in the immediate term, per President and COO Emilie Choi’s remarks in its Q3 earnings call:

Q: “Will Coinbase consider reducing transaction fees to make them more competitive with other platforms where ETFs are being traded at significantly lower prices?”

A: “We have no current plans to reduce transaction fees because of ETFs. If you just zoom out a little bit, spot ETF should be a positive catalyst for the entire crypto space. They should add credibility to the market, and we should see increased liquidity and market stability as we’ve seen with other asset classes such as gold.”

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Choi’s answer hinted towards a potential headwind to Coinbase’s model – market stability. Coinbase noted that in Q3, “crypto asset volatility, a driver of our trading business, continued to decline, and it reached levels that we haven’t measured since 2016.”

A majority of Q3 witnessed little to no volatility in Bitcoin prices – August saw one decline of more than (10%) and a 6% rise, but aside from that, prices were relatively stable. Volatility heightened in October as Bitcoin broke the $30,000 mark and ascended towards $35,000, while the remainder of Q4 witnessed relatively heightened volatility as well.

Due to stable crypto prices, Coinbase’s trading volume dipped more than (17%) QoQ and (52%) YoY to $76 billion in the quarter, while transaction revenues declined nearly (12%) QoQ and (21%) YoY to $289 million.

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Heightened crypto volatility is a primary driver of Coinbase’s trading business, so periods with less volatility, i.e. stability, correlate to lower trading volumes and transaction revenues. Coinbase noted that its October transaction revenue was $105 million (around 9% higher than Q3’s monthly average), but cautioned investors not to extrapolate that figure for Q4. If you do extrapolate that sum, Q4’s transaction revenues would fall between $310 million to $320 million, signaling flat to a low single-digit YoY decline in transaction revenue despite an ~80% rally in Bitcoin.

In a broader view, both trading volume and transaction revenue have declined significantly since peaking in Q4 2021, when Bitcoin made a round trip from $47,000 to new highs above $64,000 before pulling back to $47,000. Trading volumes in Q3 were nearly (83%) lower than Q4 2021, at $76 billion compared to $547 billion.

Transaction revenues similarly are down more than (87%) since then, with five straight quarters below $400 million. Transaction revenues accounted for more than 46% of Coinbase’s total revenue in Q3, so there is heightened risk to Coinbase’s model now that a fee-competitive asset class exists, as it may potentially draw away trading volume and thus transaction revenue via lower fees.

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Monthly transacting users have also declined (40%), from 11.2 million in Q4 2021 to 6.7 million in Q3 2023, with the decline accelerating over the past two quarters.

These trends in trading volumes and transaction revenues are not exclusive to Coinbase, as Robinhood is reporting similar weaknesses in both metrics.

Robinhood’s notional crypto trading volume was ~$6.8 billion in Q3, a (25%) QoQ and (53%) YoY decline. Since Q4 2021, trading volume has fallen (85%), interestingly nearly the exact percentage drawdown as Coinbase.

Transaction revenues peaked in Q2 2021 for Robinhood at $233 million, before plunging to $51 million the next quarter; unlike Coinbase, Robinhood did not see a second higher peak in transaction revenue. For Q3 2023, Robinhood reported $23 million in transaction revenue, representing a (26%) QoQ and (55%) YoY decline; unlike Coinbase, crypto transaction revenues are under 5% of Robinhood’s total revenue, so there is less risk from ETFs, as investors could choose to invest in the ETFs directly on Robinhood’s platform.

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Robinhood hinted that it is more willing to be competitive on fees, saying that it rolled out some UI changes in Q3 so its crypto customers “can clearly see the spreads that we offer on our crypto transactions. This makes it easier for customers to see their all-in cost of execution, compare it against other platforms and see how great of a deal Robinhood is giving them.” By focusing on offering a better deal than competitors, Robinhood is potentially limiting upside to transaction revenues via a lower average fee – its average fee rate in Q3 of 0.338% was more than 10% lower than Coinbase’s average fee rate of 0.380%.

With a basket of ETFs now approved, Robinhood and Coinbase will have to compete on fees, as certain classes of investors are likely to choose ETFs over directly holding crypto for exposure due to trust. In just the first week after the approval of the ETFs, we’ve seen strong demand for top of the class funds: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has surpassed $1 billion AUM in its first week, a rare milestone that few ETFs share.

This is the first major speed bump for the bull case – how Coinbase and Robinhood can find ways to drive trading volumes higher, while maintaining higher fees than ETFs, to drive an inflection in transaction revenues.

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Retail trading accounts for more than 95% of Coinbase’s transaction revenue while accounting for less than 15% of trading volume – this suggests that to drive a meaningful uptick in transaction revenues, Coinbase will need to see strong growth in retail trading volumes. More volatile Bitcoin prices, or a run to higher highs, can serve as a catalyst for higher trading activity; however, Coinbase holds the view that the ETFs will lead to more stability in the market, meaning more investors may choose to buy and hold with less active trading.

Custodial Fee Benefits & Risk for Coinbase

The ETF approvals offer one direct benefit to Coinbase, in that it stands to earn custodial fees by serving as the custodian for 8 of the 11 approved ETFs, including the most popular of the class, the iShares Bitcoin Trust.

Coinbase will be providing custodial, trading and lending services to the ETF issuers, giving it a stream of revenue via fees for these services, but opening up the door to a significant concentration of risk. Custodial fees currently account for ~2.5% of Coinbase’s revenue at less than $16 million in Q3, leaving opportunity for significant growth via ETFs – however, impacts from ETFs will not be visible until Q1 earnings, given the recent launch date.

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Serving as the sole custodian for more than three-quarters of the approved ETFs heightens risks to investors, as a security compromise, hack or other operational failure on Coinbase’s part could significantly impact the ETF’s value or increase difficulty in accessing funds.

A multi-custodian approach helps safeguard investor assets by reducing the dependency on a single entity for providing all of the necessary services for an ETF to function. Therefore, it is likely that these ETFs, and other approved ETFs, will diversify away from relying on Coinbase as a sole custodian to having multiple custodians. This could reduce custodial fees should Coinbase lose its status as custodian for more than 75% of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Conclusion

The approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs is expected a game-changer for crypto, as it is widely believed that the approval and subsequent widespread access for institutions and retail investors will shape up to be one of the most bullish fundamental moments in Bitcoin’s history.

To attempt to size the demand the ETFs may create, Grayscale has $18 billion assets under management, and iShares has surpassed $1 billion already. If we assume over the long run that these Bitcoin ETFs average $5 to $8 billion AUM, this could add an additional $55 to $90 billion in demand for a limited supply of Bitcoin. As a reminder, Bitcoin is limited to 21 million Bitcoins and the next halving occurs in 2024. Halving can lead to a higher value for Bitcoin as it reduces the number of new bitcoins being generated by the network.

A push to new all-time highs for Bitcoin sits at the core of the bull thesis for crypto platforms such as Coinbase, as higher prices theoretically would lead to higher volatility and thus higher trading volumes and higher transaction revenues. Even with Bitcoin’s 80% push back to the high $40,000 level, Coinbase’s clues suggest that transaction revenues may not meaningfully accelerate in the high-teen to low-20% range.

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Given this substantial decline in trading volume and resulting declines in transaction revenue for both Coinbase and Robinhood, the bull case centered around ETF approval ushering in strong revenue growth is weakened. There are many moving parts with how the ETFs will alter the crypto landscape, but unless both platforms witness trading volume more than double over the next few quarters, it is hard to see how this creation of a fee-competitive environment can serve as a tailwind to revenue growth over the short to medium-term.

If you own crypto stocks or Bitcoin, or are looking to own crypto stocks and Bitcoin, we encourage you to attend our weekly premium webinars, held every Thursday at 4:30 pm EST for premium members to discuss how to navigate the broad market, as well as various stock entries and exits. We offer trade alerts plus an automated hedging signal. The I/O Fund team is one of the only audited portfolios available to individual investors. Learn more here.

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Kalshi Approved for Margin Trading After Affiliate Kinetic Markets Gets FCM Registration

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Kalshi Approved for Margin Trading After Affiliate Kinetic Markets Gets FCM Registration

Kalshi Margin Trading Approved

The NFA filing lists Kinetic Markets as both an FCM and swap firm. Bloomberg was the first to report on the NFA filing. Kalshi Inc. holds a 10% or greater financial interest in the entity. Co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara are named as indirect owners, with Lior Samuel Hirschfeld serving as CEO of Kinetic, Sam Rosner as CFO, and Joshua Andrew Beardsley as chief compliance officer.

Until now, Kalshi operated on a fully collateralized model, requiring traders to post 100% of a contract’s value before entering a position. Margin trading changes that. Participants will be able to hold positions by posting only a fraction of the total value as collateral, freeing up capital for other use.

Mansour told attendees at a recent Kalshi Research conference that margin access will open to institutional investors first, hedge funds, prop desks, and similar firms, before any retail rollout is considered. No firm launch date has been announced.

The FCM approval connects directly to Kalshi’s existing status as a CFTC-designated contract market for event contracts, one of the first exchanges to hold that designation. The company filed for FCM registration in late 2025, and the NFA confirmed the approval this week.

Kalshi’s push into institutional access has been building for months. In early February 2026, the company was reported to be seeking CFTC approval specifically to attract capital from professional trading operations. The FCM registration gives those firms the leverage framework they need to participate at scale.

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The report notes that recent partnership announcements reflect the same direction. Kalshi signed a clearing and infrastructure deal with Fidelity Information Services, announced a data integration with Ark Invest on March 26, 2026, and completed an earlier integration with Tradeweb in 2026.

Monthly trading volumes on the platform have exceeded $10 billion in recent periods. The company’s valuation stands at roughly $22 billion. Kalshi currently offers contracts on politics, sports, crypto prices, weather outcomes, and other real-world events.

Founded in 2020, Kalshi spent years in regulatory proceedings before the CFTC approved it as the first dedicated event contract exchange. The platform has also faced state-level legal challenges in Tennessee and Nevada over sports betting jurisdiction, but federal courts have sided with CFTC oversight of the contracts.

Onlookers on social media described the FCM registration as a “major hurdle” for Kalshi. Alongside this, it will benefit institutional participants who want short exposure to event-driven outcomes, positions that were difficult to construct efficiently under the old collateral structure.

“Solving for the Ouroborus of Margin & Jump Risk is how you get adoption by players who have to deploy at a large notiona amount,” one person wrote on X.

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How quickly institutional adoption follows will depend on how Kalshi structures margin requirements and which contracts it makes eligible. The company has indicated the feature may not apply to all event contracts at launch.

Kinetic Markets is currently listed as an inactive NFA member, meaning it is not independently conducting commodity interest business. Its primary function is to support Kalshi’s expanded trading infrastructure. Further details on the rollout timeline are expected in the coming weeks.

FAQ 🔎

  • What is Kinetic Markets LLC? Kinetic Markets LLC is a Kalshi affiliate registered by the NFA as a futures commission merchant on March 24, 2026, to enable margin trading on the platform.
  • How does margin trading work on Kalshi? Instead of posting 100% of a contract’s value, margin traders post a fraction of the position as collateral, improving capital efficiency.
  • Who can access Kalshi margin trading first? Margin trading will initially be available to institutional investors such as hedge funds, with retail access potentially following at a later date.
  • Is Kalshi regulated by the CFTC? Yes, Kalshi operates as a CFTC-designated contract market, one of the first exchanges approved specifically for event contracts.
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Nonprofits face challenges with cryptocurrency | Samuel French

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Nonprofits face challenges with cryptocurrency | Samuel French
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  • Nonprofits can either convert crypto donations to cash immediately or hold them as an investment.
  • Cryptocurrency is treated as a property donation by the IRS, not as a currency donation.
  • Experts advise nonprofits to seek professional financial guidance before accepting and managing cryptocurrency.

Nonprofits and cryptocurrency donations are increasingly being used to put old-fashioned money in the bank.

Cryptocurrency valuations over time are such that more nonprofits are opening up to accepting crypto and converting it to cash, or holding on to it for hoped-for long-term value increases.

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Principal factors that have held back nonprofits’ acceptance of crypto donations are uncertainty about how it works, valuation volatility, tax implications and regulatory considerations. But the strains on traditional fundraising and the potential gain nonprofits can realize from crypto are driving them to explore — or accept — this nontraditional funding source. Other issues are not having a vehicle in place to accept crypto, and many nonprofits as regards crypto haven’t updated their internal investment policies and donation acceptance policies.

Crypto’s name is based on combining cryptography (encrypted codes) with currency. There is no government central bank or other authority creating crypto. An internet artificial intelligence overview explains crypto creation as follows, and don’t be surprised if it seems almost a foreign language: “Cryptocurrency is created through decentralized digital processes, primarily mining or validation, rather than being minted by a central bank. New coins are generated as rewards for securing the blockchain network, verifying transactions, and solving complex mathematical problems, using specialized computer hardware.”

Crypto valuation has something in common with the plush toys called Beanie Babies. Beginning in 1993, Beanie Babies were a craze for a short time. As the idea of a collectible toy spread, demand grew; scarcity and restrained production drove costs higher. Long lines formed at stores so the newest ones could be grabbed as they went on shelves. Today, many Beanie Babies can be bought on eBay for $5.99, though some rare, mint-condition Babies sell for thousands. Why the high and the low? That’s what people are willing to pay.

Basically, crypto has value because it’s believed and accepted to have value. Key valuation factors include supply and demand and crypto’s controlled, decentralized nature outside the traditional fiat currency structure. There are many forms of crypto; Bitcoin, the largest crypto variation, has seen spectacular gains in value as well as encountering substantial valuation declines.

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Bitcoin debuted in 2009 with essentially no value. On Oct. 6, 2025, Bitcoin reached its high-water mark of $126,198.07. At 2 p.m. on March 11, Bitcoin was at $70,268.35. Bankrate.com explains Bitcoin’s value driver: “The price of Bitcoin is notoriously driven by sentiment. When the market shifts to its ‘greed’ phase, Bitcoin soars amid the utopian promises and speculators dismiss the risks of an asset that generates no cash flow. In the ‘fear’ phase, Bitcoin’s price seems to find no traction, as sellers push its price lower amid bad news or general market malaise.” In short, Bitcoin, or any crypto, is worth what the buyer will pay.

The IRS treats crypto as a digital asset, along with stablecoin (stable because it’s tied to stable assets like gold or the U.S. dollar) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs, one-of-a-kind cryptographic tokens on a blockchain, that can’t be replicated.) Nonprofits receiving crypto donations must treat them for tax purposes as property donations rather than currency donations. The IRS’s “Frequently asked questions on virtual currency transactions” page lists IRS notices and links to pages dealing with crypto’s tax implications.

A nonprofit with crypto donations can’t go down to the bank and hand them to a teller to cash in the donations. Financial institutions use third-party processors, just as a nonprofit would use an exchange or processor to make the conversion. The National Council of Nonprofits provides a detailed look at crypto donations and conversion in “What Your Nonprofit Needs to Know About Cryptocurrency Donations.”

Nonprofits can seek to convert their crypto donations to cash as soon as the donation is in hand. If Bitcoin, the amount, even if well off the high, will still likely be substantial. Other types, not so much. The question confronting every nonprofit looking at a crypto donation is whether to sell or buy and hold? The decision depends substantially on the organization’s immediate needs — and if they’re willing to bet the value will increase — because that’s what it is, a bet.

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Nonprofits are best advised to seek the advice of accounting or finance professionals fluent and experienced in cryptocurrency language and disposition strategies, and who walk nonprofit leaders through the substance of crypto merits and demerits. The outcome will give a stronger basis for decisions on if, when and how much money from a crypto donation will actually go into the bank.

Samuel French is president of the accounting and business consulting firm Rodefer Moss & Co. PLLC, headquartered in Knoxville. The company’s website is rodefermoss.com.

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Trust Wallet Adds AI Transaction Layer to Self-Custody Wallet Infrastructure

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Trust Wallet Adds AI Transaction Layer to Self-Custody Wallet Infrastructure

Trust Wallet Agent Kit: AI Can Now Act on Your Crypto — With Your Permission

The kit ships in two configurations. In the first, developers set up a dedicated wallet built specifically for AI agent activity, where users define permissions upfront, and the agent can run automated strategies like dollar-cost averaging, limit orders, and price alerts, without asking for approval on every transaction.

In the second configuration, an AI agent connects to a user’s existing Trust Wallet through Walletconnect, proposes transactions, and waits for the user to approve them before anything moves. The firm notes that the user’s custody stays intact throughout.

The release follows Trust Wallet’s Developer Portal, which opened last week with read-only access to crypto data across more than 100 blockchains, including live prices, token metadata, and onchain risk signals. The Agent Kit extends that foundation by adding the ability to act, not just observe.

At launch, supported networks include Ethereum-compatible chains, Solana, Bitcoin, BNB Chain, Cosmos, TON, Aptos, Tron, NEAR, and Sui. Trust Wallet says that coverage makes it the broadest chain-compatible AI wallet infrastructure currently available.

The kit integrates with Model Context Protocol (MCP), the standard developers use to connect AI systems to external platforms, and is available through a command line interface. According to the company’s announcement, a developer can go from account creation to a working AI agent in under 15 minutes.

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Out-of-the-box features include token swaps, limit orders, automated strategies, ENS resolution, ERC-20 approvals, message signing, portfolio tracking, wallet auto-lock, and a REST API for deeper integrations.

Felix Fan, CEO of Trust Wallet, remarked in a statement that AI agents need a trusted layer before they can safely act on a user’s finances. The Agent Kit, he said, gives developers the tools to build agents that execute on real wallets within rules the user sets.

Trust Wallet, which reports more than 220 million downloads, describes its broader goal as becoming the self-custody infrastructure for AI-powered finance, a foundational layer that lets AI participate in crypto workflows without users surrendering ownership of their assets.

The company plans to bring AI features directly to end users inside the Trust Wallet app over the coming months, with in-wallet insights, automated strategies, and personalized alerts. A separate Agent Marketplace is also on the roadmap, where developers can publish reusable agent strategies and trading bots for users to deploy directly from their wallets.

Trust Wallet’s development arrives as a growing number of crypto firms roll out services and features tailored to the emerging agentic economy. Since the debut of Openclaw, interest in AI agents has accelerated profoundly, with companies such as Circle, Binance, Coinbase, and a myriad of others unveiling tools and infrastructure focused squarely on this evolving segment.

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FAQ 🔎

  • What is the Trust Wallet Agent Kit? It is a developer tool that allows AI agents to execute real crypto transactions on a user’s wallet across more than 25 supported blockchains.
  • How does Trust Wallet keep users in control of AI transactions? Users can require per-transaction approval through WalletConnect or configure preset permissions on a dedicated agent wallet before any automation runs.
  • What blockchains does the Trust Wallet Agent Kit support? At launch it supports Ethereum-compatible chains, Bitcoin, Solana, BNB Chain, Cosmos, TON, Aptos, Tron, NEAR, and Sui.
  • Where can developers access the Trust Wallet Agent Kit? The kit is available now via the Trust Wallet Developer Portal at portal.trustwallet.com.
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