The last time Bitcoin experienced such a prolonged drop was in 2022, when several of crypto’s largest players—including the crypto exchange FTX—collapsed and brought the digital assets market down with them. That period saw Bitcoin plunge 76% from its then–all-time high in 2021 to $16,000 in 2022.

In 2026, the backdrop is different. President Donald Trump has become one of the industry’s biggest boosters, and Wall Street titans like BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase are announcing blockchain-based products left and right. So, why is Bitcoin tanking?

Here are three reasons why the world’s largest cryptocurrency remains mired in a bear market, according to four industry analysts:

Four-year cycles

For over a decade, Bitcoin has  seen three years of significant price appreciation followed by one year of decline. Before the 2022 collapse, the cryptocurrency experienced a downturn in 2018, following the boom and bust of initial coin offerings, or token-based fundraises; and in 2014, following the catastrophic collapse of Mt. Gox, the sector’s largest exchange at the time.

Because the four-year cycle has repeated itself multiple times, investors are now conditioned to expect it, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at the crypto asset manager Bitwise.

“One of the primary reasons for that four-year cycle is actually investor psychology,” Hougan told Fortune. “As we got towards the tail-end of 2025, we started to see some long-term Bitcoin holders… beginning to lighten up on their position.” 

Rising inflation

But, this time around, the collapse of an exchange isn’t keeping Bitcoin down. Macroeconomic conditions are to blame, said Zach Pandl, head of research at digital asset manager Grayscale.

In June, year-over-year inflation rose to 4.1% amid increases in oil prices linked to the U.S. conflict with Iran, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. That’s more than double the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%. 

Increasing inflation has led institutions like Bank of America to predict that Fed chairman Kevin Warsh will raise interest rates later this year, which is bad for Bitcoin. Riskier assets like cryptocurrencies usually see outflows as investors buy up less-risky debt that promises higher yields.

“[We] have seen that pattern play out with Bitcoin’s price over the last several years,” Grayscale’s Pandl told Fortune. “When the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to zero in COVID, Bitcoin’s price increased. When [it] decided that interest rates were too low and sharply raised [them], Bitcoin’s price declined.”

Excess leverage

Crypto wouldn’t be crypto without risk-taking, and leveraged trading has also led to the current downturn in digital assets, said Bitwise’s Hougan and Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant.

Bull markets tend to encourage investors to take on leverage, or borrow against their positions to buy more assets. For example, Strategy, the world’s largest digital asset treasury, ramped up purchases in 2024 and 2025 to accumulate about 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply, financing much of that buying spree with new equity and debt issuances.

The company’s Bitcoin funding approach spurred similar playbooks across the market, with other firms raising capital to build up their own digital asset stockpiles. But as Bitcoin’s price declined, that model came under pressure. Since October, Strategy’s stock price has fallen by 75%.

Why Ripple Swell 2026 Will Be Different

As Ripple Swell 2026 moves closer, Ripple shared on July 10 that early bird pricing for the event will soon expire while continuing to promote a broader gathering than it has hosted in previous years. The event will take place from Oct. 27 through Oct. 29 at The Shed in Manhattan. It is designed to connect traditional financial institutions with developers and organizations working across the onchain economy.

“Join financial leaders, builders, developers, and the XRP community in NYC this October to explore the intersection of traditional finance and the onchain economy.” Swell posted on X. The invitation reflects the event’s expanded audience. It also places XRP supporters alongside institutional executives, researchers, and financial technology companies within the same conference.

The approaching registration deadline provides an immediate update on the event. Early bird pricing ends Saturday, July 11, with passes listed at $1,000 before standard registration increases to $1,200. The pricing reminder adds urgency for prospective attendees without changing the conference’s wider focus on finance, blockchain development, and digital assets.

An Expanded Program Takes Shape

The 2026 conference will combine Swell and Apex for the first time, merging Ripple’s institutional gathering with an event historically focused on XRP Ledger developers. The unified program is intended for financial executives, fintech innovators, engineers, and researchers. That format brings technical XRP Ledger discussions into closer contact with institutions evaluating blockchain infrastructure.

Ripple expects more than 1,500 attendees, at least 75 speakers, and more than 50 sessions across three stages. Planned topics include payments, stablecoins, tokenization, capital markets, regulation, decentralized finance, cybersecurity, treasury management, and XRP utility. The range indicates an effort to address commercial adoption alongside technical development.

Confirmed speakers include Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, President Monica Long and Chief Technology Officer Emeritus David Schwartz. Bullish Chairman and CEO Tom Farley, Tradeweb CEO Billy Hult, and Water.org co-founder Matt Damon are also listed. Additional speakers and detailed sessions are expected to be announced as the conference approaches.

What Could Define Swell 2026

The program begins before the main conference with a hackathon scheduled for Oct. 24 and Oct. 25. An invite-only Institutional Summit and welcome reception follow on Oct. 27. Main-stage presentations, breakout sessions, an expo hall, and related events are planned across the final two days.

Swell 2026’s importance will become clearer as Ripple releases its complete agenda and remaining speakers. The expanded structure already connects institutional finance, XRP Ledger development, and the broader digital asset sector. New partnerships, product demonstrations, regulatory discussions or technical announcements could provide the clearest evidence of what the New York gathering ultimately delivers.

Donald Trump uses his presidency to enlarge his private fortune in ways that none of his predecessors ever ventured to attempt.

In his first year back in office, Trump reported $2.2 billion in income, of which about $1.4 billion represented new revenues from cryptocurrency businesses, according to his annual Personal Financial Disclosure for 2025, released June 30.

Trump, as president last year, thus hauled in more money than he did in any previous year. One big chunk of the $1.4 billion was $635 million from a license agreement for his so-called $TRUMP digital “meme” coins, also called “crypto” coins or “tokens.”

$TRUMP coins surfaced three days before his inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025. The following month, Trump’s Securities Exchange Commission — newly weakened at the president’s demand — announced that such tokens would no longer come under SEC oversight.

A few weeks after that, in May, Trump hosted a dinner for the top 220 $TRUMP holders at his private golf club in Northern Virginia, just outside of Washington.

While the president raked it in, one million buyers of the meme coin lost a total $3.81 billion, a private analytics firm revealed.

Trump has yet to specifically address having snared so much money from these losing investors.

LIKENED TO ‘WILD WEST’

Under the Biden administration, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler pursued the crypto sector with enforcement actions. Gensler said the business was like the “wild west” and warned that without strong federal oversight assuring integrity, crypto could prove disastrous for the financial system. Trump promised during his campaign to fire Gensler, who instead quit on Inauguration Day.

It’s now also revealed that Trump raked in $525 million from crypto token sales by World Liberty Financial, founded by the president and his sons Donald Jr. and Eric. Beyond token sales, other investment and sales income related to WLF reportedly totaled more than $350 million.

Coziness between the administration and the industry is apparent. WLF has an important business relationship with Binance, a global cryptocurrency exchange and blockchain ecosystem. A blockchain is a secure, shared digital ledger that stores information across a network of computers in a way that tech experts say cannot be tampered with. Transactions can be made opaque to regulators. In the lingo of the trade, Binance acts as WLF’s primary liquidity provider, code developer, and central market for WLF’s stablecoin called USD-1, because its value is pegged to the U.S. dollar.

Changpeng Zhao, Binance’s founder and former head, pleaded guilty in 2023 to violating money laundering laws. But Trump pardoned him in October 2025. Very suspiciously, the president told news media he didn’t know who Zhao was.

Last week, during an Oval Office appearance, Trump broadly denounced past enforcement actions against crypto shenanigans and bragged: “Every time I see a crypto guy where they dropped an investigation I said, ‘You’re lucky I’m president.’ ”

So it will take no deep probe to discover that Trump’s championing of crypto, and his family’s interest in it, undermine the impartiality of his government’s regulatory and enforcement role.

DISTURBING SUSPICIONS

The rise of World Liberty Financial also raises disturbing suspicions of foreign nationals buying favor with the White House. One Abu Dhabi-backed firm invested $2 billion in its stablecoin. Trump’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, and his son Brandon, have been involved in developing WLF along with Mideast emissary Steve Witkoff and his sons.

Corruption is defined in the dictionary as “the dishonest, fraudulent, or illegal misuse of entrusted power for personal gain.” The question is how explicitly and specifically Trump’s actions meet the definition.

Even without counting Trump’s garish promotion of an industry from which he benefits bigly, no other president has cashed in even close to his other, non-crypto ventures, worth $800 million for 2025. That includes his golf courses, hotels, traditional real estate, lawsuits, branded merchandise, stock gains and licensing agreements.

But because of its unique, cutting-edge role, crypto puts up the biggest numbers for Trump’s rapid acquisition of wealth. And that’s where the massive controversial issues lie for the future.

Consumer advocates and traditional financial experts predict trouble and complex difficulties not for Trump but for the public, investors, and consumers under the new regime, with its radical preemption of enforcement against shady practices.

Of the many consumer groups that condemned the Trump crypto windfall, one organization, Public Citizen, stands out for its comment: “Donald Trump’s grift is degrading the presidency, ripping off consumers and investors, and driving dangerous policy that risks future financial crises.”

“The least that Congress can do in light of this disclosure is insist on language in cryptocurrency legislation prohibiting the president and other federal officeholders from trading or holding crypto assets while in office.”

The open question is how that will happen unless Congress and executive agencies stop passively obeying Trump’s demands. This scandal is about an unheard-of level of self-dealing by the government’s most powerful individual. There is litigation involving WLF, but a resolution cannot be expected quickly.

Perhaps only more crypto losers, like those who bought a Trump meme coin, will inspire future reforms.