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Trump, the Deal Maker in Chief, Is Back

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Trump, the Deal Maker in Chief, Is Back

Good morning on this Inauguration Day. Welcome to Round 2 of President Donald Trump. No matter your politics, it is likely to be a historic ride.

For business and policy leaders, the next administration is expected to be filled with deals of all sorts — from White House agreements brokered over secure phone lines with foreign powers to congressional backroom pacts to headline-making deals negotiated by Wall Street.

This is a transactional president, perhaps the most transactional ever. He wants to engage with the business community, which is a big distinction from the Biden administration. He takes great pride in publicly name-dropping the C.E.O.s he’s talking with. “Today, I spoke with Tim Cook of Apple,” he told supporters last night. “He said they’re going to make a massive investment in the United States because of our big election win.”

Trump is rooting for big business, until he isn’t. He’s fickle. And uncertain.

That poses a big challenge for business leaders: How and when might Trump’s unpredictability emerge? Is there a red line? C.E.O. calculations have been that a second term means that uncertainty — something many dislike — is a certainty. But many think that they can manage it, or at least they tell themselves they can.

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After Trump’s 2016 win, he invited tech C.E.O.s to meet with him (that was, of course, a photo op). They showed up, though many came reluctantly. Others joined his administration’s various councils only to depart when he said things that appeared to cross a line.

This time, many are all-in — at least for now. Some genuinely support him, or at least think he was better than the alternative. Others have taken an “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em” attitude. Or it may be that his threats, real and imagined, are working. He said as much in a candid moment about his threats to arrest Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s C.E.O., and the company’s decision to abandon fact-checking on the platform, saying Zuckerberg’s decision was “probably” the result of those threats. (Many of these same people rebuked him after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol in 2021).

We will see how long the love affair with business lasts. It may be longer than some skeptics suggest. Now that he’s in power, the business community needs Trump to like them: It’ll need his support if deals and investments are to flourish; it needs him to push the corporate tax rate lower; and the crypto world needs him. (He also needs it given his and his family’s forays into the sector). All of this raises all sorts of questions, as we get into below.

We’ll be here, every morning, reporting on all of it, as well as raising and asking tough questions. I imagine there will be a lot of them. — Andrew Ross Sorkin


TikTok users in the United States breathed sighs of relief on Sunday after the video platform began to resume service, thanks to Donald Trump’s pledge to suspend a ban of the app.

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But while the president-elect took credit for saving the hugely popular app — “So I like TikTok! I had a slightly good experience, wouldn’t you say?” he said at a rally on Sunday — his thinly sketched proposal leaves some big questions unanswered.

What Trump said: His “initial thought,” he wrote on Truth Social, was a 50-50 joint venture between ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese owner, and an unspecified American entity. It represented Trump’s favorite thing — a deal — and on the surface had some appeal.

Trump added that he envisioned ByteDance handing over half of the company to the U.S. and that the U.S. wouldn’t pay a dime. “Whether you like TikTok or not, we’re going to make a lot of money,” he said.

But hold on a second. Trump hasn’t addressed the thorny national security concerns that persuaded a bipartisan group of lawmakers and President Biden to back the TikTok ban, not to mention who controls the ByteDance algorithm that is the key to the app’s success.

Moreover, it’s not clear how Trump can legally get around the ban. While he has promised to issue an executive order saving the app, the law is still on the books — though Trump can choose how aggressively to enforce parts of it, legal experts say.

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Republicans and their allies criticized Trump’s efforts to circumvent the law:

  • Senator Tom Cotton, the Arkansas senator who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, warned on X that any company that aids “communist-controlled TikTok could face hundreds of billions of dollars of ruinous liability under the law.”

  • Speaker Mike Johnson added that he expected the law to be enforced: “The law is very precise, and the only way to extend that is if there is an actual deal in the works,” he said on “Meet the Press” on Sunday.

  • Joe Lonsdale, the venture capitalist who’s close to Trump allies like Peter Thiel, wrote on X, “Tomorrow he becomes POTUS, NOT King. Congress and SCOTUS were clear. He can give TikTok 90 days, then if it’s not sold, any company facilitating it is breaking the law.”

  • And Elon Musk reiterated that while he didn’t believe in banning TikTok, he found it “unbalanced” that TikTok be allowed to operate in the U.S. but X remains blocked in China. (That said, China’s vice president, Han Zheng, met with Musk and other business leaders to say his country was open to American business.)

What next? Trump will need to flesh out his proposal in the coming days to persuade lawmakers and others that it’s legally sound. Meanwhile, other bidders for TikTok are circling, including the billionaire Frank McCourt, who has assembled a group that wants to buy the app without its key algorithm, and reportedly Perplexity, an artificial intelligence start-up.

For ByteDance’s U.S. investors, which include General Atlantic, Susquehanna and Sequoia, a preferred course — second only to keeping the whole thing intact — may well be to spin the company to themselves. But if China won’t let them keep the algorithm, what would they be left with?


In between the dining, dancing and speechifying, President-elect Donald Trump is expected to unveil a flurry of executive orders on Monday.

First up, according to Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff, are major policy shake-ups for energy, immigration and border security, work protections for federal employees, as well as halting or scaling back key planks of the Biden administration’s climate agenda.

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D.E.I. is also in the cross hairs. President Biden’s diversity, equity and inclusion measures for federal agencies are expected to be rolled back, just as big companies, such as Meta and Amazon, plan to eliminate or revamp some of these policies.

Electric vehicle credits are on the chopping block. Trump has long promised to undo the Inflation Reduction Act, a law that has supporters among some oil executives. It also extends credits to electric vehicle customers. Withdrawing those could dent sales of E.V.s.

That said, Elon Musk, Tesla’s C.E.O. and a key Trump ally, has suggested his company could weather a pullback.


Stock and bond markets are closed in the United States for Martin Luther King’s Birthday. But crypto trading is available — and it has helped mint Donald Trump as the latest crypto billionaire.

This weekend saw a frenzied rally for Donald Trump and Melania Trump meme coins, prompted by Trump himself. “GET YOUR $TRUMP NOW,” the president-elect told his followers on Truth Social this weekend.

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It rallied further when Robinhood, the trading platform that made a big donation to Trump’s inauguration fund, began letting its customers trade the $TRUMP coin.

Bitcoin, which hit a record on Monday, and other digital tokens have soared since Election Day on the hope that the incoming administration will loosen regulation around the sector. That said, the rally in $Trump and $Melania tokens has astounded longtime market watchers.

Ethics watchdogs see the coin as a “profound conflict of interest” for Trump. Though organizers of the Trump coin say that buying it is neither a political donation nor an investment contract, skeptics say it raises questions about the president-elect benefiting from an industry he is supposed to be regulating.

There’s also the question of whether foreign governments could buy into the coin, potentially violating the foreign emoluments clause of the Constitution.

“This may represent the single worst conflict of interest in the modern history of the presidency,” Norm Eisen, a White House ethics adviser during the Obama administration, told The Washington Post.

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As Donald Trump prepares to take office, one thing is becoming especially clear: Washington is increasingly becoming a city where it pays to pay up.

The inaugural committee has already raised more than $170 million, shattering a record set by the first Trump committee.

Corporations as well as donors have opened their wallets. Apple, Google, Meta and Microsoft all gave millions to Trump this time, taking advantage of the more-permissive rules around donations for post-election activities such as the inauguration.

“Corporate America has embraced President Trump,” Brian Ballard, a powerful lobbyist and Trump fund-raiser, told The Washington Post. “Every corporate client I have wants to be a part of it.”

Critics of such donations point to a pay-to-play culture. An analysis by OpenSecrets of giving to the first Trump inauguration found that more than half of the 63 federal contractors who gave won multimillion-dollar bids in 2017.

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Among them:

  • For-profit prison operators, including CoreCivic and Geo Group, saw huge increases in contract awards.

David Rubenstein, the billionaire co-founder of the Carlyle Group, put it bluntly to The Times:

Big donors, he said, “would like to get the policies they believe in from the federal government — more oil drilling, easier antitrust policy, more favorable crypto policy, less bank oversight. They also want more support for helping American companies invest overseas, and have ready access to government officials.”


The inauguration of Donald Trump as president will be a pricey and star-studded affair.

Carrie Underwood, Rascal Flatts and the Village People are set to perform. And Snoop Dogg headlined Friday’s black-tie “Crypto Ball,” a $2,500-a-ticket gala that hailed Trump as “the first crypto president.”

Inauguration celebrations have changed significantly over the course of American history: The more lavish the festivities, the greater the statement. On the unpretentious side were those for Thomas Jefferson and Jimmy Carter. The co-chairman of Carter’s inaugural committee told The Times that the goal was “an inauguration which is traditional but modest in one, not extravagant.”

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Barack Obama declined corporate donations for his first inauguration (though he still managed 10 official balls and a performance by Jay-Z) before accepting them for his second inauguration. President Biden’s pandemic-marred inauguration ended with fireworks, but there were no galas.

Trump’s festivities may draw comparisons to those of Ronald Reagan, whose 1981 inauguration fund set a record by raising $8 million (about $29 million in today’s money). As The Times described the day:

In white and black tie, in sequins and sables and clouds of perfume, Republican revelers stepped out tonight to the most lavish series of inaugural balls ever held in the nation’s capital.

It was an evening of shiny black limousines and nostalgic swing bands, of glittery Hollywood celebrities and wealthy Western oil men. The aura of big money was everywhere.

We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.

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L.A. County sues oil companies over unplugged oil wells in Inglewood

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L.A. County sues oil companies over unplugged oil wells in Inglewood

Los Angeles County is suing four oil and gas companies for allegedly failing to plug idle oil wells in the large Inglewood Oil Field near Baldwin Hills.

The lawsuit filed Wednesday in Los Angeles Superior Court charges Sentinel Peak Resources California, Freeport-McMoran Oil & Gas, Plains Resources and Chevron U.S.A. with failing to properly clean up at least 227 idle and exhausted wells in the oil field. The wells “continue to leak toxic pollutants into the air, land, and water and present unacceptable dangers to human health, safety, and the environment,” the complaint says.

The lawsuit aims to force the operators to address dangers posed by the unplugged wells. More than a million people live within five miles of the Inglewood oil field.

“We are making it clear to these oil companies that Los Angeles County is done waiting and that we remain unwavering in our commitment to protect residents from the harmful impacts of oil drilling,” said Supervisor Holly Mitchell, whose district includes the oil field, in a statement. “Plugging idle oil and gas wells — so they no longer emit toxins into communities that have been on the front lines of environmental injustice for generations — is not only the right thing to do, it’s the law.”

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Sentinel is the oil field’s current operator, while Freeport-McMoran Oil & Gas, Plains Resources and Chevron U.S.A. were past operators. Energy companies often temporarily stop pumping from a well and leave it idle waiting for market conditions to improve.

In a statement, a representative for Sentinel Peak said the company is aware of the lawsuit and that the “claims are entirely without merit.”

“This suit appears to be an attempt to generate sensationalized publicity rather than adjudicate a legitimate legal matter,” general counsel Erin Gleaton said in an email. “We have full confidence in our position, supported by the facts and our record of regulatory compliance.”

Chevron said it does not comment on pending legal matters. The others did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

State regulations define “idle wells” as wells that have not produced oil or natural gas for 24 consecutive months, and “exhausted wells” as those that yield an average daily production of two barrels of oil or less. California is home to thousands of such wells, according to the California Department of Conservation.

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Idle and exhausted wells can continue to emit hazardous air pollutants such as benzene, as well as a methane, a planet-warming greenhouse gas. Unplugged wells can also leak oil, benzene, chloride, heavy metals and arsenic into groundwater.

Plugging idle and exhausted wells includes removing surface valves and piping, pumping large amounts of cement down the hole and reclaiming the surrounding ground. The process can be expensive, averaging an estimated $923,200 per well in Los Angeles County, according to the California Geologic Energy Management Division, which notes that the costs could fall to taxpayers if the defendants do not take action. This 2023 estimate from CalGEM is about three times higher than other parts of the state due to the complexity of sealing wells and remediating the surface in densely populated urban areas.

The suit seeks a court order requiring the wells to be properly plugged, as well as abatement for the harms caused by their pollution. It seeks civil penalties of up to $2,500 per day for each well that is in violation of the law.

Residents living near oil fields have long reported adverse health impacts such as respiratory, reproductive and cardiovascular issues. In Los Angeles, many of these risks disproportionately affect low-income communities and communities of color.

“The goal of this lawsuit is to force these oil companies to clean up their mess and stop business practices that disproportionately impact people of color living near these oil wells,” County Counsel Dawyn Harrison said in a statement. “My office is determined to achieve environmental justice for communities impacted by these oil wells and to prevent taxpayers from being stuck with a huge cleanup bill.”

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The lawsuit is part of L.A. County’s larger effort to phase out oil drilling, including a high-profile ordinance that sought to ban new oil wells and even require existing ones to stop production within 20 years. Oil companies successfully challenged it and it was blocked in 2024.

Rita Kampalath, the county’s chief sustainability officer, said the county remains “dedicated to moving toward a fossil fuel-free L.A. County.”

“This lawsuit demonstrates the County’s commitment to realizing our sustainability goals by addressing the impacts of the fossil fuel industry on front line communities and the environment,” Kampalath said.

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Instacart is charging different prices to different customers in a dangerous AI experiment, report says

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Instacart is charging different prices to different customers in a dangerous AI experiment, report says

The grocery delivery service Instacart is using artificial intelligence to experiment with prices and charge some shoppers more than others for the same items, a new study found.

The study from nonprofits Groundwork Collaborative and Consumer Reports followed more than 400 shoppers in four cities and found that Instacart sometimes offered as many as five different sales prices for the exact same item, at the same store and on the same day.

The average difference between the highest price and lowest price on the same item was 13%, but some participants in the study saw prices that were 23% higher than those offered to other shoppers.

The varying prices are unfair to consumers and exacerbate a grocery affordability crisis that regular Americans are already struggling to cope with, said Lindsey Owens, executive director of Groundwork Collaborative.

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“In my own view, Instacart should close the lab,” Owens said. “American grocery shoppers aren’t guinea pigs, and they should be able to expect a fair price when they’re shopping.”

The study found that an individual shopper on Instacart could theoretically spend as much as $1,200 more on groceries in one year if they had to deal with the kind of price differences observed in the pricing experiments.

At a Safeway supermarket in Washington, D.C., a dozen Lucerne eggs sold for $3.99, $4.28, $4.59, $4.69, and $4.79 on Instacart, depending on the shopper, the study showed.

At a Safeway in Seattle, a box of 10 Clif Chocolate Chip Energy bars sold for $19.43, $19.99, and $21.99 on Instacart.

Instacart likely began experimenting with prices in 2022, when the platform acquired the artificial intelligence company Eversight. Instacart now advertises Eversight’s pricing software to its retail partners, claiming that the price experimentation is negligible to consumers but could increase store revenue by up to 3%.

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“These limited, short-term, and randomized tests help retail partners learn what matters most to consumers and how to keep essential items affordable,” an Instacart spokesperson said in a statement to The Times. “The tests are never based on personal or behavioral characteristics.”

Instacart said the price changes are not the result of dynamic pricing, like that used for airline tickets and ride-hailing, because the prices never change in real time.

But the Groundwork Collaborative study found that nearly three-quarters of grocery items bought at the same time and from the same store had varying price tags.

The artificial intelligence software helps Instacart and grocers “determine exactly how much you’re willing to pay, adding up to a lot more profits for them and a much higher annual grocery bill for you,” Owens said.

The study focused on 437 shoppers in-store and online in North Canton, Ohio; Saint Paul, Minn.; Washington, D.C., and Seattle.

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Instacart shares were down more than 5% in midday trading on Wednesday and have risen 1% this year.

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Commentary: Is $140,000 really a poverty income? Clearly not, but the viral debate underscores the ‘affordability’ issue

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Commentary: Is 0,000 really a poverty income? Clearly not, but the viral debate underscores the ‘affordability’ issue

On the Sunday before Thanksgiving, a wealth manager named Michael Green published a Substack post arguing that a $140,000 income is the new poverty level for a family of four in America, where the official poverty line is $32,150.

The post promptly went viral.

One would hope that economic commentators coast-to-coast mentioned Green as their “person I’m most thankful for” at their family gatherings that week, because he gave them something to masticate ever since. On the spectrum from left to right, countless pundits have rerun Green’s numbers to deride or validate his argument.

It is jarring that in one of the richest countries in the world, one-third of the middle class does not make enough to afford basic necessities.

— Stephens and Perry, Brookings

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“The whole thing doesn’t pass the smell test,” asserted right-of-center economist Noah Smith in a very lengthy rebuttal. On the other side, Tom Levenson, who teaches science writing at MIT, gave us a Bluesky thread in which he noted that “$140,000 in many urban areas in the US is a family income that is at least precarious, and at worst, one or two missed paychecks from having to make rent-or-food choice.”

Green has asserted that the response to his post has been “massively favorable.” That isn’t my impression, but leave it aside.

Here’s my quick take: Green made a category error (and a rhetorical blunder) by hanging his argument on the concept of “poverty”; that’s the claim that most of his critics focus on. His real argument, however, concerns the concept of affordability. Indeed, in a follow-up post he redefined his argument as applying to “the hidden precarity for many American families.”

We can stipulate that making $140,000 a poverty standard is absurd. Even in a high-cost economy such as California’s, millions of families live comfortable lives on much less. (The median household income in Los Angeles County — meaning half of all households earn less and half earn more — is about $86,500.)

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Plenty of working families are raising children and having fruitful social lives on median incomes or even less: Living thriftily is not the same as living penuriously or meanly. Much of what middle-class families give up are things that aren’t necessarily crucial. Green’s image of families stripped to the bones with mid-six-figure or even high five-figure incomes feels like something conjured up by an asset manager with a distinctly affluent clientele, which is what he is.

Yet, what his post alludes to implicitly is that the concept of “middle-class” has evolved over the last few decades, and not in a good direction. That’s why so many Americans, including millions with incomes that used to place them firmly in the middle class, feel strapped as never before, wondering how they can afford things their parents took for granted, such as putting the kids through college and saving for a comfortable retirement.

“The nation’s affordability crisis has not spared middle-class families, one-third of which struggle to afford basic necessities such as food, housing, and child care,” Hannah Stephens and Andre M. Perry of the Brookings Institution observed last week. Their analysis covered 160 U.S. metro areas, and held firm in all of them.

(They defined the middle class as falling into the income range of $30,000 to $153,000.)

Let’s give Green’s argument the once-over.

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He started with the origin of the federal poverty calculation, which dates back to 1963, when a Social Security economist named Mollie Orshansky figured that since American households spent an average of one-third of their budget on food, if you estimated the cost of a minimally adequate food basket and multiplied by three, you might have a useful overall standard for poverty. She pegged that at $3,130 for a nonfarm family of four.

“If it is not possible to state unequivocally ‘how much is enough,’” she wrote, “it should be possible to assert with confidence how much, on an average, is too little.” She pegged that at $3,130 for a nonfarm family of four.

Green festooned his post with lots of hand-waving and magic asterisks to accommodate changes in American lifestyles over the ensuing six decades and come up with his $140,000 standard. But if one applies a constant inflation rate to Olshansky’s $3,130 via the consumer price index, you get about $33,440. As it happens, the government’s official poverty level for a family of four today is $32,150. Pretty close.

That’s an important figure, because it defines eligibility for a host of government programs. Eligibility for Medcaid under the Affordable Care Act (in states that accepted the ACA’s Medicaid expansion) runs up to income of 138% of the poverty level; higher than that steers families into ACA health plans. As KFF notes, “in states that have not adopted Medicaid expansion, adults with income as low as 100% FPL can qualify for Marketplace plans.”

Green’s critics generally note that the median household income in the U.S. was $83,730 in 2024, meaning that he’s placed well more than half of America into the poverty zone. That just swears at reality.

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It needs to be said that Green’s approach differs from those articles that regularly appear asking us to commiserate with families earning $400,000 or $500,000 because they can’t make ends meet.

As I’ve reported in the past, these articles invariably depend on sleight-of-hand. They offer their own definitions of “rich” and list as necessary or unavoidable expenses many items that ordinary families would consider luxuries — lavish vacations, charitable donations (including to the adults’ alma maters), etc., etc. The strapped family eking out an existence on $500,000 featured in one such piece had fully-funded retirement and college plans, payments on two luxury cars, “date nights” every other week … you get the drift.

Levenson ran the numbers for a hypothetical family in his home town of Brookline, Mass., which is objectively upper-crust, but his approach applies more widely. Let’s run them for a hypothetical household in Los Angeles County. These figures are necessarily conjectural, because your mileage may vary — in fact, everyone’s mileage varies.

The median monthly rent in L.A., according to Zillow, is $2,750, or $33,000 a year. On the other hand, the median home price in the county is close to $1 million. At today’s average mortgage rate of 6.2% and assuming a 20% down payment, the cost of an $800,000 mortgage runs to $4,900 a month, or $58,800 a year. One can find a cheaper home farther from the coast, so for argument’s sake let’s posit a $500,000 home with a $40,000 mortgage: $2,450 a month, or only $29,400. But you’re probably living farther from work, so your transportation costs go up.

The property tax on that $1-million home: $10,000 in year one. (On the $500,000 home, it’s $5,000.)

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State and federal taxes on a $140,000 income: about $18,000. Social Security payroll tax: $8,680.

So of our $140,000, housing and taxes leave us with somewhere between $44,500 and $78,920.

Food: The bureau of economic analysis pegs the annual spending of a four-member California family at an average $18,000. That figure is almost certainly on the upswing.

Healthcare? In its annual report on employer-sponsored health coverage, KFF found that the employee share of family covered reached $6,850 this year, with employers shouldering the balance of the average $27,000 total. For families on Affordable Care Act plans, the costs are impossible to calculate just now, because Republicans in Congress can’t get their act together to extend the premium subsidies that make these plans workable.

Then there’s child care. In the old days, when single-earner families were more common than today, that wasn’t as much of an issue than it is today. But if both parents work, children have to be stowed in child care until they’re old enough for kindergarten or first grade — let’s say up to age 5 or 6. In California, according to one survey, that’s about $13,000 per year per child.

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A few more things we haven’t counted yet: cellphone account, say $100 a month; home Wi-Fi, another $100; computers, $1,000 or so each; cars, $17,000 to $25,000 used; auto and home insurance, $1,500 each; gasoline; and utilities ($3,300 a year, according to SoFi).

At the low end of housing costs, our California family has remaining monthly discretionary income of a few hundred dollars. At the higher mortgage level they’re underwater. Levenson adds, “our notional couple best not have any student loans.”

It’s also worth noting that our couple has put a dime into retirement or college funding. If they set aside 10% of their income for 401(k) contributions, they’re in trouble.

What we’re actually looking at is the collapse of the American middle class. “It is jarring that in one of the richest countries in the world, one-third of the middle class does not make enough to afford basic necessities,” Stephens and Perry of Brookings write. “The single woman living in Pennsylvania buying her first home, the Latino or Hispanic couple in Indiana running a local business, the Black parents in Texas starting their family — all of these faces of the American middle class are struggling with affordability when they shouldn’t have to.”

Trump could alleviate these pressures, notably by knocking off the tariff stunts. For all that he declares “affordability” to be a Democratic hoax or that his acolytes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and White House chief economist Kevin Hassett try to smile away the reality, the American public isn’t fooled.

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The Conference Board, a business think tank, reported that U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply in November. No surprise. Michel Green put his finger on something, and the likelihood is that things are only getting worse.

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