Business
Trump, the Deal Maker in Chief, Is Back
The questions facing a new Trump era
Good morning on this Inauguration Day. Welcome to Round 2 of President Donald Trump. No matter your politics, it is likely to be a historic ride.
For business and policy leaders, the next administration is expected to be filled with deals of all sorts — from White House agreements brokered over secure phone lines with foreign powers to congressional backroom pacts to headline-making deals negotiated by Wall Street.
This is a transactional president, perhaps the most transactional ever. He wants to engage with the business community, which is a big distinction from the Biden administration. He takes great pride in publicly name-dropping the C.E.O.s he’s talking with. “Today, I spoke with Tim Cook of Apple,” he told supporters last night. “He said they’re going to make a massive investment in the United States because of our big election win.”
Trump is rooting for big business, until he isn’t. He’s fickle. And uncertain.
That poses a big challenge for business leaders: How and when might Trump’s unpredictability emerge? Is there a red line? C.E.O. calculations have been that a second term means that uncertainty — something many dislike — is a certainty. But many think that they can manage it, or at least they tell themselves they can.
After Trump’s 2016 win, he invited tech C.E.O.s to meet with him (that was, of course, a photo op). They showed up, though many came reluctantly. Others joined his administration’s various councils only to depart when he said things that appeared to cross a line.
This time, many are all-in — at least for now. Some genuinely support him, or at least think he was better than the alternative. Others have taken an “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em” attitude. Or it may be that his threats, real and imagined, are working. He said as much in a candid moment about his threats to arrest Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s C.E.O., and the company’s decision to abandon fact-checking on the platform, saying Zuckerberg’s decision was “probably” the result of those threats. (Many of these same people rebuked him after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol in 2021).
We will see how long the love affair with business lasts. It may be longer than some skeptics suggest. Now that he’s in power, the business community needs Trump to like them: It’ll need his support if deals and investments are to flourish; it needs him to push the corporate tax rate lower; and the crypto world needs him. (He also needs it given his and his family’s forays into the sector). All of this raises all sorts of questions, as we get into below.
We’ll be here, every morning, reporting on all of it, as well as raising and asking tough questions. I imagine there will be a lot of them. — Andrew Ross Sorkin
TikTok’s fuzzy future
TikTok users in the United States breathed sighs of relief on Sunday after the video platform began to resume service, thanks to Donald Trump’s pledge to suspend a ban of the app.
But while the president-elect took credit for saving the hugely popular app — “So I like TikTok! I had a slightly good experience, wouldn’t you say?” he said at a rally on Sunday — his thinly sketched proposal leaves some big questions unanswered.
What Trump said: His “initial thought,” he wrote on Truth Social, was a 50-50 joint venture between ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese owner, and an unspecified American entity. It represented Trump’s favorite thing — a deal — and on the surface had some appeal.
Trump added that he envisioned ByteDance handing over half of the company to the U.S. and that the U.S. wouldn’t pay a dime. “Whether you like TikTok or not, we’re going to make a lot of money,” he said.
But hold on a second. Trump hasn’t addressed the thorny national security concerns that persuaded a bipartisan group of lawmakers and President Biden to back the TikTok ban, not to mention who controls the ByteDance algorithm that is the key to the app’s success.
Moreover, it’s not clear how Trump can legally get around the ban. While he has promised to issue an executive order saving the app, the law is still on the books — though Trump can choose how aggressively to enforce parts of it, legal experts say.
Republicans and their allies criticized Trump’s efforts to circumvent the law:
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Senator Tom Cotton, the Arkansas senator who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, warned on X that any company that aids “communist-controlled TikTok could face hundreds of billions of dollars of ruinous liability under the law.”
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Speaker Mike Johnson added that he expected the law to be enforced: “The law is very precise, and the only way to extend that is if there is an actual deal in the works,” he said on “Meet the Press” on Sunday.
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Joe Lonsdale, the venture capitalist who’s close to Trump allies like Peter Thiel, wrote on X, “Tomorrow he becomes POTUS, NOT King. Congress and SCOTUS were clear. He can give TikTok 90 days, then if it’s not sold, any company facilitating it is breaking the law.”
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And Elon Musk reiterated that while he didn’t believe in banning TikTok, he found it “unbalanced” that TikTok be allowed to operate in the U.S. but X remains blocked in China. (That said, China’s vice president, Han Zheng, met with Musk and other business leaders to say his country was open to American business.)
What next? Trump will need to flesh out his proposal in the coming days to persuade lawmakers and others that it’s legally sound. Meanwhile, other bidders for TikTok are circling, including the billionaire Frank McCourt, who has assembled a group that wants to buy the app without its key algorithm, and reportedly Perplexity, an artificial intelligence start-up.
For ByteDance’s U.S. investors, which include General Atlantic, Susquehanna and Sequoia, a preferred course — second only to keeping the whole thing intact — may well be to spin the company to themselves. But if China won’t let them keep the algorithm, what would they be left with?
Executive orders galore
In between the dining, dancing and speechifying, President-elect Donald Trump is expected to unveil a flurry of executive orders on Monday.
First up, according to Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff, are major policy shake-ups for energy, immigration and border security, work protections for federal employees, as well as halting or scaling back key planks of the Biden administration’s climate agenda.
D.E.I. is also in the cross hairs. President Biden’s diversity, equity and inclusion measures for federal agencies are expected to be rolled back, just as big companies, such as Meta and Amazon, plan to eliminate or revamp some of these policies.
Electric vehicle credits are on the chopping block. Trump has long promised to undo the Inflation Reduction Act, a law that has supporters among some oil executives. It also extends credits to electric vehicle customers. Withdrawing those could dent sales of E.V.s.
That said, Elon Musk, Tesla’s C.E.O. and a key Trump ally, has suggested his company could weather a pullback.
Crypto bulls rejoice
Stock and bond markets are closed in the United States for Martin Luther King’s Birthday. But crypto trading is available — and it has helped mint Donald Trump as the latest crypto billionaire.
This weekend saw a frenzied rally for Donald Trump and Melania Trump meme coins, prompted by Trump himself. “GET YOUR $TRUMP NOW,” the president-elect told his followers on Truth Social this weekend.
It rallied further when Robinhood, the trading platform that made a big donation to Trump’s inauguration fund, began letting its customers trade the $TRUMP coin.
Bitcoin, which hit a record on Monday, and other digital tokens have soared since Election Day on the hope that the incoming administration will loosen regulation around the sector. That said, the rally in $Trump and $Melania tokens has astounded longtime market watchers.
Ethics watchdogs see the coin as a “profound conflict of interest” for Trump. Though organizers of the Trump coin say that buying it is neither a political donation nor an investment contract, skeptics say it raises questions about the president-elect benefiting from an industry he is supposed to be regulating.
There’s also the question of whether foreign governments could buy into the coin, potentially violating the foreign emoluments clause of the Constitution.
“This may represent the single worst conflict of interest in the modern history of the presidency,” Norm Eisen, a White House ethics adviser during the Obama administration, told The Washington Post.
The big money behind the inauguration
As Donald Trump prepares to take office, one thing is becoming especially clear: Washington is increasingly becoming a city where it pays to pay up.
The inaugural committee has already raised more than $170 million, shattering a record set by the first Trump committee.
Corporations as well as donors have opened their wallets. Apple, Google, Meta and Microsoft all gave millions to Trump this time, taking advantage of the more-permissive rules around donations for post-election activities such as the inauguration.
“Corporate America has embraced President Trump,” Brian Ballard, a powerful lobbyist and Trump fund-raiser, told The Washington Post. “Every corporate client I have wants to be a part of it.”
Critics of such donations point to a pay-to-play culture. An analysis by OpenSecrets of giving to the first Trump inauguration found that more than half of the 63 federal contractors who gave won multimillion-dollar bids in 2017.
Among them:
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For-profit prison operators, including CoreCivic and Geo Group, saw huge increases in contract awards.
David Rubenstein, the billionaire co-founder of the Carlyle Group, put it bluntly to The Times:
Big donors, he said, “would like to get the policies they believe in from the federal government — more oil drilling, easier antitrust policy, more favorable crypto policy, less bank oversight. They also want more support for helping American companies invest overseas, and have ready access to government officials.”
How Trump’s inauguration stacks up
The inauguration of Donald Trump as president will be a pricey and star-studded affair.
Carrie Underwood, Rascal Flatts and the Village People are set to perform. And Snoop Dogg headlined Friday’s black-tie “Crypto Ball,” a $2,500-a-ticket gala that hailed Trump as “the first crypto president.”
Inauguration celebrations have changed significantly over the course of American history: The more lavish the festivities, the greater the statement. On the unpretentious side were those for Thomas Jefferson and Jimmy Carter. The co-chairman of Carter’s inaugural committee told The Times that the goal was “an inauguration which is traditional but modest in one, not extravagant.”
Barack Obama declined corporate donations for his first inauguration (though he still managed 10 official balls and a performance by Jay-Z) before accepting them for his second inauguration. President Biden’s pandemic-marred inauguration ended with fireworks, but there were no galas.
Trump’s festivities may draw comparisons to those of Ronald Reagan, whose 1981 inauguration fund set a record by raising $8 million (about $29 million in today’s money). As The Times described the day:
In white and black tie, in sequins and sables and clouds of perfume, Republican revelers stepped out tonight to the most lavish series of inaugural balls ever held in the nation’s capital.
It was an evening of shiny black limousines and nostalgic swing bands, of glittery Hollywood celebrities and wealthy Western oil men. The aura of big money was everywhere.
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Business
California attorney general asks judge to block Nexstar-Tegna merger
California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta is asking a judge to unravel Nexstar Media Group’s $6.2-billion acquisition of rival TV station owner Tegna — the latest in a flurry of merger twists.
Nexstar announced late Thursday that it had consummated the Tegna takeover — despite a lawsuit that Bonta and seven other Democratic state attorneys general had filed in federal court the previous day.
The state officials sued to block the union of the station groups, alleging the new colossus would violate antitrust rules and a federal law limiting broadcast station ownership.
The lawsuit was filed in U.S. District Court in Sacramento.
Hours after that filing, the Federal Communications Commission’s Media Bureau in Washington approved Nexstar’s deal — clearing the way for the nation’s largest TV station group owner to swallow the third-largest station group.
The purchase gives Nexstar, which owns KTLA-TV Channel 5 in Los Angeles, 265 television stations.
On Friday, Bonta and the other attorneys general asked a judge for a temporary restraining order to freeze the takeover until a hearing on the matter.
“Nexstar/Tegna is not a done deal,” Bonta said Friday in a statement. “I will not let these corporate behemoths merge without a fight.”
It was not immediately clear when a judge might rule on the request for a restraining order.
Bonta appeared at a lawmakers’ hearing in Burbank on Friday to explore the impacts of another huge merger: Paramount Skydance’s proposed $111-billion takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery. Bonta’s office has opened an investigation into the Paramount-Warner merger, but Bonta said Friday that no decision has been made on whether he or other attorneys general will seek to block it.
For now, he is focused on derailing the Nexstar-Tegna deal.
“We filed a suit before that deal closed,” Bonta told The Times. “We think our case is extremely strong. There is no way this should be approved.”
At issue is whether the FCC had the power to grant a waiver that would allow Nexstar to control TV stations that reach nearly 80% of U.S. households. In 2003, Congress set the station ownership cap at 39% of the country.
The Department of Justice also gave its blessing to close the deal.
The three FCC commissioners did not vote on the matter — despite pleas from the lone Democrat on the panel who advocated for an open process.
Approval of the merger was rapid after President Trump endorsed the consolidation on Feb. 7.
“We need more competition against THE ENEMY, the Fake News National TV Networks,” Trump wrote in his social media post.
“Letting Good Deals get done like Nexstar – Tegna will help knock out the Fake News because there will be more competition, and at a higher and more sophisticated level,” Trump wrote. “GET THAT DEAL DONE!”
In a statement Thursday, Nexstar founder and chief executive Perry Sook thanked Trump and FCC Chairman Brendan Carr, saying Nexstar was “grateful” they recognized the “dynamic forces shaping the media landscape” and allowed the transaction to move forward.
Business
Where Oil and Gas Sites Have Been Attacked During Iran War
Multiple strikes
in Tehran
At least 37 energy oil refineries, natural gas fields and other energy sites in nine countries have been damaged since the United States and Israel began bombarding Iran, a New York Times analysis found. Some have been struck by drones. Several have been hit more than once.
As the attacks escalate, both sides increasingly view energy as a potent target — one that is capable of inflicting severe economic pain. Iran depends on oil and natural gas to keep the lights on and its government running, while the United States wants to prevent prices from soaring further and damaging the underpinnings of the global order.
The question is no longer just when Iran’s tight grip on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but critical passage on its southern coast, will ease enough for most ships to pass. It is also how long it will take to complete repairs needed to produce and process oil and natural gas in the first place.
“The longer this war goes on, the more likely it is that the two sides are going to play their strongest energy-leverage cards,” said Clayton Seigle, an energy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington research group. “The attacks on facilities are not easily reversible.”
To count the number of attacks and disruptions at energy facilities in the region, The New York Times reviewed statements from government, state-run and private energy companies. The Times also reviewed lists compiled by ClearView Energy Partners and the Institute for the Study of War, two research firms, and subsequently verified their findings.
Through Friday, The Times had found a total of 45 attacks, though there is no official accounting and more may have occurred. Strikes occur seemingly every day.
The importance of energy in the war became even clearer after Israel struck facilities tied to Iran’s South Pars gas field on Wednesday. Iran responded by lashing out across the Gulf. At least 10 sites were damaged this week, The Times found, including an energy hub in Qatar, as well as oil refineries in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
The various attacks sent oil and natural gas prices soaring as traders worried that much of the Gulf’s energy could remain effectively landlocked for a while, possibly months. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, briefly topped $119 a barrel on Thursday morning before retreating. Oil fetched less than $73 a barrel before the war started on Feb. 28, a price that reflected the possibility of a war.
“It’s been the cumulative effect that’s really driven this crisis,” said Raad Alkadiri, a Washington-based political risk analyst who specializes in energy and the Middle East.
While oil has been front and center, analysts are especially concerned about the damage to the world’s largest natural-gas export terminal, called Ras Laffan, on Qatar’s coast.
The sprawling facility, which is operated by the state-owned QatarEnergy company, cools natural gas into liquid that can be loaded onto tankers and shipped. But Qatar said on the third day of the war that it had stopped producing liquefied natural gas, citing military attacks.
This week’s strikes caused further damage, compromising 17 percent of the country’s L.N.G. export capacity, QatarEnergy said on Thursday, adding that repairing the damage could take up to five years.
There is no easy replacement for that fuel, which is used to generate electricity and heat homes. And there is little spare L.N.G. capacity in other countries.
Other points of vulnerability include the oil export terminals where the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are rerouting oil to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. One of those areas, in the Emirates, was targeted as recently as this week. A refinery near the other, in Saudi Arabia, was also hit by a drone.
“It could become a lot worse if the craziness continues to prevail,” said Charif Souki, a former chief executive of Houston-based Cheniere Energy, a large L.N.G. company. “But there are so many people who have a vested interest in not letting it get too far out of hand.”
Indeed, countries around the world have agreed to release oil from emergency stores to stem rising prices. The U.S. military is also attacking Iranian vessels and drones to try to clear the Strait of Hormuz, and the Trump administration said it would lift sanctions on Iranian oil to nudge prices down.
In many cases, it is hard to know how severe the damage has been to a facility.
As Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners put it, “The last thing they probably want to do is tell Iran, ‘You missed me, try again.’”
Even when companies have been more forthcoming, their disclosures have sometimes only raised more questions.
Mr. Souki said he was surprised to hear that QatarEnergy expected it would take up to five years to repair its L.N.G. facilities. “I think he’s hedging his bets at the moment,” Mr. Souki said, referring to QatarEnergy’s chief executive. “You can always give good news later.”
Business
Pentagon’s Anthropic bashing rekindles Silicon Valley’s resistance to war
Artificial intelligence powerhouse Anthropic’s battle with the Pentagon has sparked some soul-searching in Silicon Valley that could reshape the tech sector’s complicated relationship with war and the White House.
Anthropic is the San Francisco-based startup behind the chatbot Claude and some of the most powerful AI on the market. In its negotiations with the military, it has demanded guardrails on how its technology is used.
The military said it refused to be beholden to a corporation and pushed back, labeling Anthropic a threat akin to an enemy foreign power and blocking it from some government contracts.
Tech leaders have quietly backed Anthropic, saying that AI isn’t ready for some weapons and that strong-arming companies is counterproductive and antidemocratic. President Trump called Anthropic a bunch of “left-wing nut jobs.”
How this showdown plays out will affect not only Anthropic’s booming business but also the way tech titans and other corporations work with an administration known for lashing out at resisters, said Alan Rozenshtein, an associate professor at the University of Minnesota Law School.
“On the one hand, it could cause the government’s other Silicon Valley suppliers to be more compliant, lest they be treated like Anthropic has been,” he said. “On the other hand, it could lead more companies to avoid doing business with the government at all to avoid the risk of something like this happening to them.”
As some tech trailblazers in recent years have become more comfortable with developing weapons, Southern California has emerged as a hub for defense tech startups. With a long history in defense, it has the factories, engineers and aerospace expertise to turn venture funding and military demand into weapons, satellites and other advanced systems.
The fallout from Anthropic’s showdown with the Trump administration will help determine the local winners and losers in the sector in the coming years.
While many of the key players in tech have been reluctant to join the brawl in a high-profile manner, the positions on different sides are laid out in a court case that Anthropic has pursued to get off the Pentagon’s blacklist.
Anthropic filed the lawsuit in the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California and a petition for review in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on March 9. The company is asking the court to overturn its designation as a “supply chain risk” and block the Trump administration from enforcing the government’s ban on its technology.
“The consequences of this case are enormous,” Anthropic’s lawsuit said. “The federal government retaliated against a leading frontier AI developer for adhering to its protected viewpoint on a subject of great public significance — AI safety and the limitations of its own AI models — in violation of the Constitution and laws of the United States.”
Some of Anthropic’s biggest concerns are that its technology could be used for government surveillance or autonomous weapons. It has been asking for assurances in the wording of its contracts that its AI would not be used for these purposes. While the government said it would not use the tech for those purposes, it was unable to provide Anthropic with the assurance it wanted.
Tech industry groups, Microsoft and workers from Google and OpenAI have backed Anthropic in its legal fight against the Trump administration, adding their own views to its case.
On Tuesday, lawyers for the U.S. government said in a court filing that the Defense Department started to wonder whether Anthropic could be trusted.
“Anthropic could attempt to disable its technology or preemptively alter the behavior of its model either before or during ongoing warfighting operations, if Anthropic — in its discretion — feels that its corporate ‘red lines’ are being crossed,” the government said in the filing.
The Department of Defense and Anthropic declined to comment.
The tech industry has a long, complicated history of working with the military. In the 1960s, the Department of Defense developed the internet’s predecessor, ARPAnet, to help keep military and government computers secure.
For much of this century, the big tech companies, as well as their investors, have often tried to avoid developing or promoting things that helped spy on people or kill them. Google, once known for its motto “Don’t Be Evil,” didn’t renew a controversial Pentagon contract, Project Maven, in 2018 after thousands of workers protested over concerns that AI would be used to analyze drone surveillance footage.
That has changed in recent years as there has been more money to be made in tech fixes for military problems.
Benjamin Lawrence, a senior lead analyst at CB Insights, said that advancements in AI and major events, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, helped fuel a surge in venture capital investment in defense tech.
“It caused a huge shift with a lot of traditional investors looking at defense tech in a more positive light because you have a sovereign democratic nation that was invaded,” he said.
The world’s most powerful tech companies have been partnering with defense tech startups and securing government contracts.
Google has been offering AI tools to civilians and military personnel for unclassified work. The Department of Defense also awarded a $200-million contract to Google Public Sector, a division that works with government agencies and education institutions, to accelerate AI and cloud capabilities.
The industry’s allegiance with the White House and its military ambitions was strengthened with the arrival of the second Trump administration. Many of the top executives of the tech world have been supporting and advising Trump.
The recent strong-arming of one of the thought leaders of the AI revolution, however, has given many pause. Some of the resistance echoes the earlier era when the tech industry was suspicious of how governments would use its innovations.
The tech industry finds itself in a tricky spot after Anthropic’s clashes with the Pentagon. In late February, the public feud escalated after Trump assailed Anthropic and ordered government agencies to stop using its technology. His administration labeled Anthropic a “supply chain risk,” prompting the company to sue.
Trump’s actions could jeopardize hundreds of millions of dollars in contracts it has with private parties, according to Anthropic’s lawsuit. Federal agencies have started to cancel contracts.
Last week, tech industry groups such as TechNet, whose members include Anthropic, Meta, OpenAI, Nvidia, Google and other major companies, said in an amicus brief that blacklisting an American company “engenders uncertainty throughout the broader industry.”
“Treating an American technology company as a foreign adversary, rather than an asset, has a chilling effect on U.S. innovation and further emboldens China’s efforts to export its own government-backed AI technology,” the brief said.
Microsoft has also backed Anthropic, urging the court to temporarily block Trump from blacklisting the AI company. Labeling Anthropic as a supply chain risk means that Microsoft and other government suppliers will have to use “significant resources” to determine how excluding Anthropic would affect their contracts.
The U.S. government said in its filing that its concerns with Anthropic focus on its conduct and are unrelated to its speech. But Anthropic and the tech industry say the move would hurt their businesses.
In addition to Trump’s harsh criticism of the company, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth accused Anthropic of delivering a “master class in arrogance and betrayal.”
Anduril’s founder, Palmer Luckey, backed the Pentagon’s position, stating that it should be elected officials, not corporate executives, making military decisions. Anthropic countered, stating in a blog post it “understands that the Department of War, not private companies, makes military decisions.”
As this battle plays out, some experts say Anthropic would probably have an upper hand in court.
In its lawsuit, Anthropic said the Trump administration violated a law for labeling a company a supply chain risk, noting it doesn’t have ties to a U.S. “adversary,” such as China or Iran.
Anthropic also said the Trump administration retaliated against the company for its speech and other protected activities, violating the 1st Amendment.
“They’re just lashing out,” said Rozenshtein of the University of Minnesota Law School. “I think that’s a lot of what this is.”
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