Business
Measuring the Risk of Recession
Ups and downs
Carl Icahn mentioned yesterday {that a} recession “and even worse” was coming. “I believe there may be going to be a tough touchdown,” Icahn instructed CNBC. He isn’t the one one issuing warnings about progress. Economists on the Dallas Fed, in an evaluation revealed yesterday, mentioned that if the majority of Russian oil exports have been minimize off for a lot of this yr, “a worldwide financial downturn appears unavoidable.”
Inventory merchants seem in a extra optimistic temper, with the S&P 500 rising in 5 of the previous six buying and selling periods, regaining a lot of the bottom misplaced since its early January peak. The alerts from bonds are extra combined, however some elements of that market additionally recommend that merchants aren’t betting on a recession coming quickly.
Checking in on company credit score: For a lot of the previous yr, BBB company bonds — that are the lowest-rated debt nonetheless thought of funding grade — have carried out higher, relative to authorities bonds, than higher-quality debt rated one notch larger. “BBBs are buying and selling very tight to single As,” the Financial institution of America credit score strategist Yuri Seliger instructed DealBook. The ratio of these bond spreads to authorities debt is the bottom it has been in a decade.
When lower-rated company bonds do higher, the financial system normally follows. These extra dangerous debtors have a tendency to point out larger progress when the financial system is sweet and better charges of default when the financial system is unhealthy. When traders consider the financial system is headed for a recession, they have an inclination to purchase higher-quality company bonds.
However a powerful financial system might not be the one cause these bonds are outperforming. Authorities stimulus in the course of the pandemic has left most firms with extra cash and fewer debt. And fewer buying and selling within the bond market than a decade in the past (bankers say that is due to stricter rules) could cause momentum trades to last more than they need to. “The way in which BBB bonds have traded made sense for the previous yr,” Seliger mentioned. But when the financial system is headed for a recession, the pattern ought to have reversed some time in the past, he added.
That mentioned, authorities bonds are flashing financial warning indicators. The Treasury yield curve, which measures the distinction between charges on short-term and long-term U.S. authorities debt, has flattened not too long ago, which is normally an indication of a recession. Final week, Larry Summers, a former Treasury secretary who has been warning concerning the results of rising inflation, tweeted that he was “not shocked that yield curve form is more and more pointing to recession.”
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
Jamie Dimon urges President Biden to bolster U.S. gasoline manufacturing. In a gathering on the White Home with C.E.O.s, the JPMorgan Chase chief known as for a “Marshall Plan” to assist wean America and Europe off Russian gas, Axios studies. It’s unclear how receptive Biden officers can be, given their pledges to cut back U.S. carbon emissions.
The U.S. and Britain roll again Trump-era tariffs. Below the phrases of a deal reached yesterday, America will elevate some levies on British aluminum and metal, whereas Britain will elevate tariffs on greater than $500 million value of products like American whiskey and bluejeans.
A Starbucks retailer in its hometown, Seattle, votes to unionize. The 9-to-0 vote makes the shop the seventh U.S.-owned location to kind a union, out of practically 9,000. Greater than 100 shops in over 25 states have filed for union elections; firm officers — together with Howard Schultz, who’s returning as chief government on an interim foundation — have made gestures towards bettering employee relations.
BuzzFeed’s first earnings report as a public firm makes information. The writer, which not too long ago merged with a SPAC, reported departures by high-profile editors and warned of slower income progress and losses this yr. CNBC reported that traders have urged the corporate to close down its information operation, which has received quite a few awards however is shedding cash.
No survivors have been discovered within the China Japanese aircraft crash. Emergency employees have scoured the southern China hillside, the place a Boeing 737 jet crashed Monday, to no avail. They’re more and more centered on discovering potential clues to what went improper.
The most recent within the Russia-Ukraine conflict:
Conflicts, Congress and shares
The conflict in Ukraine has put a brand new twist on the motion to ban congressional inventory buying and selling. As lawmakers name for army support — with billions in help on the desk — some could personally profit by way of investments in weapons producers, rekindling long-held considerations about conflicts of curiosity in politicians’ private portfolios.
“Lawmakers shouldn’t be voting on army spending whereas they personal or commerce protection trade shares. Interval,” Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, instructed DealBook. She’s a member of the Armed Companies Committee and is the sponsor of considered one of two payments circulating to restrict congressional inventory exercise. Placing restrictions on buying and selling is “a key step to cease lawmakers from abusing their positions for monetary acquire,” she mentioned.
Consultant Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican of Georgia, wrote on Twitter the day earlier than Russia invaded Ukraine that “conflict and rumors of conflict” have been “worthwhile and handy” excuses for financial turmoil and rising inflation. The day past, she purchased $1,000 to $15,000 of Lockheed Martin’s inventory, Congress Trading reported. Greene is considered one of no less than 19 members of Congress with direct private investments in firms that manufacture weapons going to Ukraine, based on Enterprise Insider.
A Home committee is contemplating adjustments to the principles governing lawmakers’ trades. It has been reviewing the STOCK Act, which units out the reporting necessities for trades. It’s contemplating new guidelines and penalties “to create higher transparency and accountability in Congress,” Consultant Zoe Lofgren, Democrat of California and the chairwoman of the Home Administration Committee, mentioned not too long ago. A listening to on the difficulty was scheduled for final week however has been delayed as a result of a member has Covid, a spokeswoman mentioned.
The committee assessment was initiated after Speaker Nancy Pelosi agreed to contemplate a ban on the buying and selling of particular person shares by members of Congress. She had beforehand defended the observe. Yesterday, Congress Trading noted that Pelosi’s husband, an lively dealer, reported a transaction in Tesla choices value $1,000,000 to $5,000,000.
Senate aides are additionally going through scrutiny. Guidelines forbid them from investing in industries beneath the jurisdictions of the committees they work for, however the Marketing campaign Authorized Middle despatched a letter final week to the Senate ethics committee a couple of handful of aides who personal shares that seem to interrupt the principles.
“What we’re headed towards is a extra divided world economically that can mirror what’s clearly a extra divided world politically.”
— Edward Alden of the Council on International Relations, on how the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine are upending concepts about how stronger world financial ties would result in higher stability.
A billion-dollar guess on luxurious workplace house
For practically 50 years, the Transamerica Pyramid — the distinctively geometric 48-story, quartz-clad tower — has been a fixture of the San Francisco skyline. Now its proprietor, the actual property developer Shvo, is introducing a sweeping renovation meant to mark the return of swanky places of work.
The Transamerica campus is being redesigned by Foster and Companions, the structure agency based by Norman Foster. The design mandate, based on Shvo’s founder, Michael Shvo, was luxurious: An outpost of the Core membership, the non-public members-only membership, will occupy one ground; a lounge and health club will characteristic in the course of the pyramid; and a non-public bar for tenants will sit on the prime.
“By the point we’re carried out with the renovation, you’ll really feel such as you’re in a 4 Seasons resort,” Shvo instructed DealBook. The block-length web site will even acquire new workplace and retail house, and the half-acre Redwood Park on the tower’s base can be overhauled.
It’s a giant guess that the enterprise world will re-embrace the workplace. Shvo’s agency purchased the Transamerica web site in October 2020 with the goal of remodeling the William Pereira-designed web site right into a luxurious company campus. “Our position is to assist our tenants convey their staff again to the workplace,” Shvo mentioned. However Shvo’s costly guess — shopping for the property price $650 million and renovating the world will run to some $400 million — comes as many company employees don’t seem in a rush to return to city-center places of work.
Shvo has signed up a wide range of tenants, together with tech firms, regulation companies and enterprise capitalists. Simply as essential, he mentioned, the renovations have enabled the developer to roughly double rents, which as of the 2020 buy have been round $70 to $100 per sq. foot, defying latest San Francisco traits.
THE SPEED READ
Offers
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Berkshire Hathaway’s $11.6 billion takeover of Alleghany particularly excludes masking the charges paid to the goal firm’s bankers at Goldman Sachs. (Bloomberg)
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Elliott Administration and Brookfield reportedly could increase their takeover bid for Nielsen. (Bloomberg)
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The crypto-focused investor Katie Haun has raised $1.5 billion for 2 enterprise capital funds. (Axios)
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Koch Industries’ newest guess: U.S. battery firms. (WSJ)
Coverage
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In pandemic information: Virginia, the primary state to impose Covid office guidelines, has lifted them; the Omicron subvariant BA.2 now accounts for lots of the new circumstances in lots of elements of the U.S., based on one estimate; and right here’s an outline of which nations nonetheless require masks on airplanes. (NYT, WaPo)
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Disney staff walked out yesterday to protest the corporate’s response to Florida’s anti-L.G.B.T.Q. invoice. (NYT)
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A number of teams of Sept. 11 victims are close to a deal over divide $3.5 billion in Afghan central financial institution property being sought to repay authorized claims towards the Taliban. (NYT)
Better of the remaining
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Tesla formally started making vehicles in Europe after opening a $7 billion plan exterior Berlin. (NYT)
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“The Pandemic Wrecked Thousands and thousands of Careers. These 6 Folks Constructed New Ones.” (NYT)
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MacKenzie Scott gave $436 million to Habitat for Humanity. (NYT)
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“Divorce Is Down in China, however So Are Marriages” (NYT)
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The lineup of the Lollapalooza music pageant contains Metallica, Dua Lipa, Inexperienced Day and … David Solomon, the C.E.O. of Goldman Sachs. (CNN)
Thanks for studying! We’ll see you tomorrow.
We’d like your suggestions. Please e-mail ideas and recommendations to dealbook@nytimes.com.
Business
How the devastating Los Angeles fires could deepen California's home insurance crisis
When raging wildfires tore through Pacific Palisades and other local communities this week, they not only left a path of destruction reminiscent of a World War II bombing campaign, but threatened to deepen a crisis that has already left hundreds of thousands of Californians struggling to find and keep affordable homeowners insurance.
The multiple fires from Los Angeles to the San Gabriel Valley that have burned thousands of structures since Tuesday — leading to losses that by one early estimate are well into the tens of billions of dollars — hit Southern California as insurers have been dropping customers statewide citing the increasing number and severity of wildfire-related losses.
The Palisades fire alone, which consumed more than 5,000 homes and structures, is being called the most destructive fire ever to hit the city, while the fires across the county are likely to be one of the most expensive natural disasters in U.S. history.
“It’s just an unmitigated disaster,” said Amy Bach, executive director of United Policyholders, a consumer advocacy group. “Wildfires in January? This just proves insurers’ point that the risk is so significantly increased due to climate change.”
State Farm, the state’s largest home insurer, announced in March it would not renew 72,000 property insurance policies, while Chubb and its subsidiaries stopped writing new high-value homes with higher wildfire risk — just to name two insurers that pulled back from the California market.
It’s not clear how many homeowners in Pacific Palisades and elsewhere might not have had coverage, but at least some homeowners reported that insurers had not renewed their policies before the disaster struck. Actor James Woods, who lost his home in the Palisades fire, tweeted Tuesday that “one of the major insurances companies canceled all the policies in our neighborhood about four months ago.”
State Farm last year told the Department of Insurance it would not renew 1,626 policies in Pacific Palisades when they expired, starting last July.
A spokesperson for State Farm declined to comment on the decision but said: “Our number one priority right now is the safety of our customers, agents and employees impacted by the fires and assisting our customers in the midst of this tragedy.”
The situation has left many homeowners in neighborhoods at high wildfire risk with little choice but to seek relief from the California FAIR Plan, an insurer of last resort that sells policies with lesser coverage. The policies cover losses up to $3 million to a dwelling and its contents caused by certain hazards, such as fire, but do not include personal liability and other protection that are typically offered by private insurers.
The FAIR Plan has seen its policies grow from a little over 200,000 in September 2020 to more than 450,000 as of last September. That has roughly tripled its loss exposure to $458 billion over the same period. Pacific Palisades has one of the state’s highest concentrations of FAIR Plan policy holders, with the insurer estimating its exposure in the neighborhood at $5.89 billion.
JP Morgan analysts estimate that total L.A. County losses could be close to $50 billion, while the losses insurers will have to pay could top $20 billion. Another estimate puts the losses even higher.
Such losses could cause insurers to exit the market completely, which Tokio Marine America Insurance Co. and Trans Pacific Insurance Co. said in April they would do in not renewing 12,556 homeowners.
The losses also could prompt insurers to further raise premiums, even though some insurers already have been granted big rate hikes, such as a 34% increase Allstate received last year.
Denise Rappmund, senior analyst at Moody’s Ratings, said, “These events will continue to have widespread, negative impacts for the state’s broader insurance market — increased recovery costs will likely drive up premiums and may reduce property insurance availability.”
Should insurers further withdraw from the market, that would put additional pressure on the FAIR Plan, which is is backed by the state’s licensed insurers, such as State Farm, who have to pay claims if they exceed the FAIR Plans reserves, reinsurance and catastrophe bonding. The insurers also can assess their own policyholders surcharges in the billions of dollars to bail out the plan under regulations put in place last year by Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara as part of his Sustainable Insurance Strategy to help the crippled market.
It’s unclear whether the plan will be able to absorb the losses like it did after the 2018 Camp fire that destroyed the town of Paradise in North California. That conflagration was the single costliest natural disaster in the world that year with $12.5 billion in covered losses and $16.5 billion in total losses, according to the reinsurance firm, Munich RE.
“This further complicates an already complicated and hardened market,” Lara said of the fires, in an interview with The Times.
Nonetheless, Lara’s reforms seek to ensure the FAIR Plan remains solvent and to make it more attractive for insurers to write policies in fire risky neighborhoods now being absorbed by the program. He said the regulations should encourage insurers to write more homeowners policies, and if not, they can be adjusted. “I feel very confident,” he said.
For the first time, California insurers can use so-called “catastrophe models” in setting their rates. Instead of largely relying on past claims data, the computer programs attempt to better refine an insurer’s risk by taking into account a multitude of variables that affect a property’s likelihood to suffer a loss.
The other major policy change allows insurers to charge California homeowners for the cost of reinsurance they buy from other insurers to limit their losses during huge catastrophes, such as wildfires and floods. This cost shift to policyholders is common elsewhere but a big change for California, where it will raise premiums.
In return for those concessions, insurers will have to write insurance in high-risk wildfire neighborhoods equivalent to 85% of their market share, meaning an insurer with a 10% statewide market share would have to cover 8.5% of the homes in such neighborhoods — a target they have at least two years to reach. Lara’s plan has been blasted by the Los Angeles group, Consumer Watchdog, which says the regulations lack teeth in actually requiring insurers to meet the coverage goals.
“The Sustainable Insurance Strategy is not a magic wand. It’s a set of incentives,” Bach said. “At the end of the day, insurers are always still going to analyze, ‘Are we going to make money here or not?’”
How much this week’s fires will disrupt the already troubled insurance market depends, of course, on how big a disaster they are — but all indications are that insurers will have to absorb billions of dollars of claims given the number of homes destroyed, especially in the wealthy enclave of Pacific Palisades, where the average home is valued at about $3.5 million by Zillow.
Insurance industry experts say a clearer picture on the estimated losses will only come after adjusters have time to review submitted claims.
“I think it’s going to be 45 days before we know what the true damage is,” said Max Gilman, president of California personal lines at the brokerage HUB International.
Whatever the final cost, Gilman noted that the fires came after a couple of relatively light fire seasons — though in November the Mountain fire in Ventura County scorched more than some 20,640 acres and destroyed more than 130 homes amid parched conditions. That made it at the time the third most destructive fire in Southern California in a decade.
“I think what’s currently transpiring is going to be of grave concern for the future,” he said. “I feel like we we took three steps forward to take five steps back.”
Denne Ritter, a vice president with the American Property Casualty Insurance Assn. trade group, said it is too early to assess the impact of the fires on Lara’s reforms, especially given how they are just being put in place. Only one catastrophe model has been submitted for review to regulators, while the reinsurance regulation released last month still awaits final approval by the Office of Administrative Law.
“What the insurance industry wants is a healthy market in California where we can compete for business, as we have historically. And the number one priority right now is helping our customers get the resources they need to rebuild their lives and restore their property,” she said.
However, she noted that Mercury Insurance — which recently announced it started writing insurance again in Paradise — and Farmers Insurance, which said last month it is increasing the number of new home policies it will write, have “certainly made moves indicating a more bullish approach on the market.”
Allstate also has said it will resume writing new policies once Lara’s reforms are in place and it can get rates that fully cover its costs.
But all those pronouncements came before this week’s catastrophic fires.
Business
Wildfires Will Deepen Housing Shortage in Los Angeles
Each of the homes burned in the Los Angeles fires is its own individual calamity.
Collectively, the losses — whether in the hundreds or, as is far more likely, in the thousands — will weigh on the city’s already urgent housing shortage.
Fires are still raging, and with 180,000 people under evacuation orders as of Thursday morning, the degree of displacement in the city and its surrounding areas will take time to assess. For the time being, evacuees are holing up in public shelters in Los Angeles County, with friends or family members or in hotels.
But in the coming weeks and months, people whose homes are gone will have to find more stable accommodations while they rebuild. That will not be easy in a metro area that, as of 2022, already had a shortage of about 337,000 homes, according to data from Zillow. The number of homes on the market in Los Angeles was 26 percent below prepandemic norms as of December, according to Zillow.
“One of the biggest challenges ahead will be getting people who lost their homes into permanent, long-term housing,” Victor M. Gordo, the mayor of Pasadena, said on Wednesday. Pasadena, which is battling the Eaton fire, has already lost hundreds of homes.
The area’s tight rental market is likely to become further strained as many of the thousands of displaced residents turn to rental units, while figuring out their next move. The median rent for a one-bedroom apartment in Los Angeles, as of Jan. 7, was more than $2,000, according to Zillow.
“You’re going to have a positive shock in demand, and a negative shock in supply, so this automatically means prices go up in the rental markets,” said Carles Vergara-Alert, a professor of finance at IESE Business School in Barcelona, who has studied the effects of wildfires on housing markets.
Any uptick in rental costs would affect tenants across the region, beyond those displaced by the fires, Dr. Vergara-Alert said.
Jonathan Zasloff, who lost his home in Pacific Palisades this week, teaches land use and urban policy at the University of California, Los Angeles law school, and is acutely aware of how his search for interim housing could affect the broader market.
Dr. Zasloff is staying with his brother for the time being, while a friend is putting up his wife and daughter. They evacuated their house, which they had lived in for almost 15 years, around noon on Tuesday, before the official evacuation order was issued for the area. That evening, Dr. Zasloff realized the severity of the crisis when he was watching television and saw a reporter standing on his fire-ravaged block.
His insurance agent told him it could take two to three years to rebuild his house. His family might try to find a rental in West Los Angeles near UCLA in the meantime, he said.
There aren’t many rentals in that part of the city, Dr. Zasloff said, so students and other renters could be displaced as he, and people like him who lost their homes, move in.
“It’s very possible that this event is going to cause a big increase in homelessness, even though the people who got pushed out of their homes are people of means,” he said.
California has been in the grip of an affordable housing crisis for a decade. Both state and local lawmakers have passed a raft of new laws that aim to make housing cheaper and more plentiful by making it easier to build. In Los Angeles, for instance, Mayor Karen Bass signed an executive order that streamlines permitting for projects in which 100 percent of the units are affordable. In response to state housing reforms, there has been a boom of backyard homes — called accessory dwelling units, or A.D.U.s — that homeowners often rent out for extra income and that have added to the housing stock.
Still, both the city and state remain well behind their housing production goals, and affordability has only continued to erode. The number of apartment units approved by the city of Los Angeles, for example, dipped to a 10-year low in 2024, according to data from the Los Angeles Department of Building and Safety compiled by Crosstown LA, a news site. That downturn in building permitting has raised concern about roadblocks to new housing unit creation.
“This is a place that had massive affordability challenges last week, and after this week it’s going to be that much more challenging,” said Dave Rand, a land-use lawyer at Rand Paster & Nelson in Los Angeles, who also serves on the board of directors of a statewide affordable housing organization.
After the fires are extinguished and the recovery begins, Mr. Rand said, there is hope that the common cause of rebuilding can be a catalyst for tackling affordability challenges by continuing to make it easier to build housing, particularly affordable rental housing, at a faster pace.
“This is such a devastating event that hopefully it rocks the system to the point where we can get real reform,” he said.
The Los Angeles City Council has aimed to build nearly half a million new units by 2029. But many people trying to rebuild all at once after the fires could lead to higher costs, and slow down the overall production of housing, said Jason Ward, a co-director of the center on housing and homelessness at the RAND Corporation.
A longstanding construction labor shortage in Los Angeles does not help. Andy Howard, a general contractor who has worked across the city for three decades, including in the areas affected by the fires, said many of the subcontractors he work with in the past have left California since the pandemic. And there are not enough young people entering the industry.
The fires are “going to make it worse,” Mr. Howard said. “It’s going to drive the cost up, for sure.”
Business
For Hollywood workers, L.A. fires are the latest setback as productions halt
As the market for documentaries and other content slowed and work dried up in Hollywood, producer Kourtney Gleason was already worried about making the mortgage payments on the home she bought last year with her boyfriend.
Now, as raging fires have halted film and TV production in Southern California and many in the industry have lost homes, she’s terrified that the entertainment business will be set back yet again. Though she’s been in the industry for 12 years, Gleason is now reluctantly looking at restaurant jobs to get by.
“The industry in the town is so fragile that every little thing becomes a bigger bump in the road,” she said. “Another bump that will push things back from getting ramped up.”
The destruction of the fires only compounds the difficult lot for many of Hollywood’s workers. Still reeling from the pandemic, they faced financial hardship during the dual Hollywood labor strikes in 2023, then were hit with a sustained slowdown in film and TV production that has driven many to rethink their careers in the industry.
“A lot of the below-the-line workers were already under an incredible amount of pressure,” said Kevin Klowden, executive director of the Milken finance institute. “For Hollywood workers, it becomes one more blow.”
The sheer scope of the region’s multiple fires means that nearly every echelon of Hollywood has been hard hit.
The Palisades fire, which has burned more than 17,200 acres and destroyed numerous homes, businesses and longtime landmarks in the Pacific Palisades area, is home to many Hollywood stars, studio executives and producers. Actors such as Billy Crystal and Cary Elwes lost homes in the blaze.
Across the region, the Eaton fire has now burned at least 10,600 acres in the Pasadena and Altadena areas and destroyed many structures. The San Gabriel Valley is home to many of the industry’s more modest or middle-class workers, who were already financially harmed by the production slowdown and relocation of shoots to other states or countries.
The fires could rank as one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history. A preliminary estimate calculated by AccuWeather, the weather forecasting service, put the damage and total economic loss at $52 billion to $57 billion, which could rise if the fires continue to spread. J.P. Morgan on Thursday raised its expectations of economic losses to close to $50 billion.
Many affected homeowners reported the insurers had dropped their policies, as some of the biggest insurers have stopped writing or renewing policies in high-risk coastal and wildfire areas. The complications with fire insurance, combined with the region’s problems with housing affordability and supply, will only be exacerbated by these fires, Klowden said, leading some to reconsider whether they can stay in California.
“It adds up,” he said. “How many more people decide they can’t afford to stay?”
Hollywood workers had been holding onto hope that 2025 would be a better year for work, perhaps closer to the levels they saw before the pandemic.
But with yet another disaster, “it feels like it’s just another weight that’s been placed,” said Jacques Gravett, a film editor who has primarily worked in television on such shows as “Power Book IV: Force” on Starz and “13 Reasons Why” on Netflix.
Gravett was out of work for 13 months between the pandemic and the strikes, and said he’s concerned about how already struggling workers will be able to absorb the financial blow from the fires.
“At least when you’re working and something happens, you have resources to get you by, and a lot of people don’t have the resources now,” said Gravett, who is co-chair of the Motion Picture Editors Guild’s African-American steering committee. “Now we’re faced with another tragedy for those who’ve been displaced. What do you do?”
The effect of the fires on industry workers could give lawmakers a push to approve Gov. Gavin Newsom’s proposed increase to the state’s film and TV tax credit program, which aims to lure production back to California and increase jobs in the Golden State, Klowden said.
“Right now, the industry desperately is waiting on the incentives to be expanded,” he said.
In the near term, discussions about new projects are already hitting a wall. Gary Lennon, showrunner of various “Power” spinoffs, including “Force,” said an agent told him there will likely be a temporary pause before anyone wants to talk about new ideas.
“Buyers and meetings for pitches being sold will take a hit for a moment,” Lennon said. “People are focused on what is immediately happening in front of them.”
Even before the fires, he said he was already getting two to three calls a week from production designers, editors, costume designers and others looking for work.
But once the industry is ready to ramp back, he said he thinks it will move quickly.
“So much has happened recently, I think production will start right away again because people do need to work,” Lennon said. “And that’s a good thing.”
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