The first serious storm system of meteorological spring for Central Texas will arrive this weekend, bringing the potential for strong thunderstorms, large hail, gusty winds, heavy rainfall and a noticeable drop in temperatures.
Austin, TX
Texas weather forecast: Here’s the hour-by-hour rain timeline for Austin
On Saturday, a large swath of Texas is under a level 2 of 5 risk of scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail.
Looking at the overall setup, Texas is sandwiched between two storm systems that originally developed from the same large trough of low atmospheric pressure in the jet stream. On Friday, that system split with one piece moving northeast before becoming an upper-level system of low pressure over the Great Lakes, while the other retrograded southwest toward Baja California.
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Saturday’s surface map shows all the weather features driving Texas weather through the weekend.
Saturday’s weather setup
Our weather on Saturday will be influenced by the upper-level low pressure over the Great Lakes, which is dragging a strong cold front southward into Texas. Across Central Texas, the combination of a dry line separating dry and humid air masses and the approaching cold front will provide enough atmospheric lift to trigger scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Ahead of the front, a deep pool of moisture-rich air from the Gulf of Mexico will continue to build, increasing atmospheric instability and helping storms develop and intensify. This setup creates the potential for severe afternoon thunderstorms capable of producing large hail — more than 1.5 to 2 inches in diameter, or around golf-ball size — along with strong wind gusts.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS: Know these cloud formations to prepare for the Texas severe weather that’s headed our way
The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Central Texas under a level 2 out of 5 risk for scattered but brief severe thunderstorms on Saturday.
The severe weather threat will decrease with the passage of the cold front, but the cut-off system of low pressure near Baja California will begin to play a larger role in our weather. Atmospheric disturbances rotating around this system will move into Texas beginning Saturday night. It will continue to harass Texas with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms into early next week.
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Rainfall totals will add up quickly, and the National Weather Service gives Central Texas a 90% chance of receiving at least an inch of rain from Saturday through Sunday.
Hour-by-hour forecast
Saturday morning will start off very muggy across Central Texas, with overcast skies and light southerly winds. Dew point temperatures will range from the mid-60s to near 70 degrees, indicating a very moist atmosphere. Meanwhile, much drier air will sit just west of the Hill Country behind the dry line, where significantly lower dew points will be observed.

Dew point temperatures at 10 a.m. Saturday shows a sharp boundary between moist air and much drier air across Texas. Along this boundary, showers and thunderstorms will begin developing.
What are dew point temperatures? It is a reliable indicator of how much moisture is in the air and how comfortable it feels outside. When dew points climb above 65 degrees, conditions begin to feel humid in Central Texas, and values approaching 70 degrees can feel downright oppressive. While dew point is not a direct measurement of total atmospheric moisture, it is a strong indicator of how much moisture is present in the air.
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By noon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin developing in the Hill Country along the frontal boundary, where atmospheric instability will be greatest. In Austin, a few spotty showers are possible, but the heavier storms are expected to arrive later.
Winds will remain light out of the southeast along and east of Interstate 35, and temperatures will reach their warmest point of the day around lunchtime, ranging from the upper 60s to the upper 70s.

Texas temperatures will climb into the 70s to near 80 degrees around lunchtime, then steadily drop through the afternoon behind the cold front.
The cold front will arrive in the Austin area during the early afternoon before pushing toward Southeast Texas during the late afternoon and early evening. The front will provide the necessary lift in the atmosphere to produce more widespread thunderstorms. This will be the period when the threat of severe weather is highest, with large hail, damaging winds and minor flooding as the main concerns throughout the afternoon.
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Keep in mind that if you have outdoor plans, you should be prepared to seek shelter as soon as you see lightning or hear thunder.

Scattered rain and thunderstorms will move into the Austin metro area on Saturday, with some storms capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief heavy downpours.
Temperatures will climb above March’s average high of 70 degrees ahead of the front, but once the front moves through, they will drop quickly. Readings in the mid to upper 70s around 2 p.m. will fall into the upper 50s and low 60s by 7 p.m.
Winds will also become gusty behind the frontal boundary, with some locations seeing gusts of 25 to 30 mph. These stronger winds are a sign of a tightening pressure gradient, which occurs as air pressure changes across the region.
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Isolated wind gusts in Texas could reach 50 to 60 mph with any strong thunderstorm that moves through on Saturday. Otherwise, wind will increase behind the front, with gusts near 30 mph.
The front will lose momentum on Saturday night and stall across South Texas. Rain chances will continue overnight and into Sunday as several atmospheric disturbances rotate toward us from a closed system of low pressure system out to the west.
Temperatures will run cooler than normal on Sunday before warming back into the 70s and 80s next week.
Austin, TX
Texas ban on selling smokable cannabis takes effect March 31
Smokable cannabis products must be removed from Texas stores by the end of the month under new rules adopted by the state’s health department.
Virtually all edible hemp products will still be allowed with stricter packaging and testing requirements. But sharply higher fees on retailers and manufacturers, while lower than initially proposed, could lead to more expensive products or force some companies out of business.
The sweeping regulations for the state’s hemp industry were first recommended in December. They were created based on an executive order issued by Gov. Greg Abbott after the Texas Legislature couldn’t agree whether to regulate THC products more strictly or ban them entirely.
Last week, the Texas Department of State Health Services adopted its final version of the rules and said they would take effect March 31.
The new regulations effectively ban the sale of smokable hemp and extracts by changing how DSHS measures Delta-9 THC, the primary psychoactive ingredient in cannabis.
Michael Minasi
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KUT News
Under the state’s 2019 hemp law, cannabis with no more than 0.3% Delta-9 by dry weight is considered legal hemp.
The adopted DSHS regulation includes a new “total THC” rule, which counts a cannabis compound known as THCA in the Delta-9 calculation. THCA converts to Delta-9 when heated or smoked, which is why a product known as THCA flower has become widely popular in Texas.
During the public comment period, hundreds of people told DSHS they oppose counting THCA as Delta-9. THCA is not explicitly banned by state or federal law.
In its response, DSHS said the “total THC” policy follows existing state and federal regulations, which are the rules written by government employees tasked with interpreting law.
The Texas Agriculture Commission adopted regulations in 2020 requiring that tests account for the potential conversion of THCA to Delta-9. The U.S. Department of Agriculture proposed a similar rule on the last day of President Trump’s first term. The rule was adopted two months later by the Biden administration.
The state’s new hemp regulations slash a proposed 10,000% increase in the annual fees charged to retailers and manufacturers of what Texas calls “consumable hemp products.” But the adopted fees — $5,000 per year for each retail location and $10,000 per year for each manufacturing facility — are still 33 and 40 times higher, respectively, than existing levies.
More than 9,100 retail locations in Texas are registered to sell consumable hemp products, according to state health records.
Michael Minasi
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KUT News
Some retailers say the fees are still crippling, especially coupled with the new prohibition on smokable products.
“It’s a high rate, but it would still be feasible, but then we come into the [THCA] regulations,” said Estella Castro, owner of the hemp store Austin Cannabis Co. “If you don’t have the flower, and the flower is going off completely, I don’t think you’re going to have the $5,000.”
Castro said smokable products account for about 40% of her sales.
Cannabis advocates say they are glad to see new product recall standards and a process to track consumer complaints, but they believe high licensing fees and a ban on flowers and extracts will power up the unregulated market.
“We know that consumers will be able to still acquire these products either from out of state operators who are not restricted by DSHS regulations or from the illicit market, which causes the most concern for us,” said Heather Fazio, who leads the Texas Cannabis Policy Center. “The illicit market doesn’t have age restrictions. It doesn’t have safety mechanisms and consumer protection.”
The new DSHS rules only affect the manufacture, distribution and sale of hemp products. They don’t affect state law allowing for possession of them.
Mark Bordas, head of the Texas Hemp Business Council, compared the $10,000 fee annual on hemp manufacturing facilities to the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission’s fee on distillers: $3,000 every two years.
“Our concern is some of these measures are so draconian that you are going to drive people out of the business and then folks’ access to the products,” Bordas said. “Invariably, we’re going to have to bring forth a [lawsuit], and the state has to defend what it’s done, and that’s taxpayer money, and it’s a waste.”
Austin, TX
3 Top Texas Longhorn Recruiting Targets Were Blown Away By Their Visits to Austin
The Texas Longhorns continue to do everything they can to better their team for the future, including dominating on the recruiting trail with some of the most sought-after prospects in the country.
Their latest installment comes after extending offers to offensive lineman Ty McCurry and Jayden Thompson, while also leaving a favorable impression on premier recruit Brayson Robinson.
As they continue to make a push for another top-10 class under head coach Steve Sarkisian, the Longhorns made a staunch impression on three of their top targets for the 2028 cycle.
Forty Acres Stands Out
The Longhorns continue to make a push on the recruiting trail, hosting some premier targets on the first day of spring camp, and extending offers to McCurry and Thompson. Both players were impressed with what they saw, not just on the football field, either, but from the Forty Acres as well.
“They said I’m their top guy and that they want me back out for a visit soon. “McCurry tells me of his conversations with the Longhorns before continuing on where they stand in his rankings. “I’ve loved the past two times I’ve been in Austin to check out the Longhorns and can 100 percent see them being a contender in my commitment down the line.”
McCurry was a Sports Illustrated freshman All-American and currently stands at 6-foot-6 and 270 pounds, currently holding 11 offers with many of them coming from the Lone Star State. The other offer from the first day of practice went to Jayden Thompson, number 15-ranked offensive tackle in the 2028 class according to 247Sports.
“My conversations with the coaches went very well, they were all very inviting and helpful,” Thompson told Texas Longhorns On SI of the Longhorns staff. “If I had one takeaway, it would be the tour of not just the football part of the school, but the campus as well.”
Another target for the 2028 cycle is Brayson Robinson, an edge defender out of Mavel, Texas. While he didn’t receive an offer yet, he has quickly garnered interest with some of the top programs in the country. The Arizona State Sun Devils and Alabama Crimson Tide have been on him mainly, but he’s hearing from a lot of schools, including the Longhorns, who impressed him.
“It went amazing and I like how every coach introduced themselves to my family and me,” Robinson told Texas Longhorns On SI about his visit. “I also love the culture.”
With still a while to go until the 2028 cycle becomes the forefront on the recruiting trail, Sarkisian and his staff continue to set themselves up to be at the top of the conversations regarding the premier talent on their target board.
Austin, TX
Severe storms possible in Austin midweek. Here’s what to expect and timings.
So far this month, Austin’s main weather observation site at Camp Mabry has recorded 0.7 inch of rain, but the year overall has been dry. Since Jan. 1, we’ve recorded just over 2.5 inches of rainfall, which is about 2.75 inches below normal at this point in the year.
While the weekend rain wasn’t exactly a drought-buster, we can still keep our hopes high — or, in the words of a classic infomercial: “But wait … there’s more!”
Morning: We’ll wake early Tuesday under dark and cloudy skies, as the sun doesn’t rise in Austin until 7:46 a.m. because of daylight saving time. Temperatures will be near 70 degrees, but don’t expect the same foggy start we saw Monday. Winds will be a bit gusty out of the south, which will help keep the low-level moisture mixed and prevent it from settling in and creating a layer of fog.
Midday: Sprinkles or light showers are possible through midday, but the heavier rainfall will hold off during the morning. The upper-level low pressure system approaching from the west will help produce active weather across West Texas during the first half of Tuesday.
Afternoon: However, across Central Texas an atmospheric lid, known as a capping inversion, will remain in place until surface temperatures warm up enough for rising air to break through the “cap.” Once that happens, the atmosphere will gradually destabilize through the afternoon and evening, allowing rain and thunderstorms to develop.
Breezy south winds will continue throughout the day, with gusts up to 25 mph. Afternoon temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Once the cold front transits east of Austin on Wednesday, drier and cooler weather will settle in for the rest of the work week before 80-degree afternoon temperatures reemerge next weekend.
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