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In 15 Years, 80,000 Homes in the New York Area May Be Lost to Flooding

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In 15 Years, 80,000 Homes in the New York Area May Be Lost to Flooding

More than 80,000 homes on Staten Island and in southeast Queens and the suburbs east of New York City could be lost to floods over the next 15 years, according to a new report that serves as a warning of how climate change could make the housing crisis even worse.

The report, released Monday by the Regional Plan Association, a nonprofit civic organization, said that swaths of land in every borough were likely to become impossible to develop, helping push the area’s housing shortage to a staggering 1.2 million homes.

“You’re going to need to build more housing to just replace what is lost in your own municipality,” said Moses Gates, the association’s vice president for housing and neighborhood planning and an author of the report.

The report is the latest to underscore how the dual threats of climate change and a lack of housing are looming over coastal cities around the world.

New York City and its suburbs have not built enough homes to meet demand over the past few decades, helping to drive up rents and home prices. At the same time, the metropolitan area is struggling to adapt to increased flooding and other extreme weather caused by global warming.

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“The sooner we decide as a city to invest in resilience measures to help neighborhoods adapt — whether it’s to fortify or to move — the faster we avert leaving an even bigger crisis for the next generation,” said Amy Chester, the managing director of Rebuild by Design, a nonprofit that works to make infrastructure better able to withstand storms and climate change.

The report did not single out specific neighborhoods as at risk for flooding. But of the 82,000 homes that could be lost by 2040, more than half were projected to be on Long Island, with some Atlantic Ocean-facing towns like Babylon and Islip bearing the brunt.

Cities along the Long Island Sound on both the island and in Westchester County would also be vulnerable. In New York City, waterfront neighborhoods in southern Queens and Brooklyn, like the Rockaways and Canarsie, would see the most losses.

Some new developments on the Rockaway Peninsula in Queens, where about 125,000 people live, are focused on trying to protect against flooding while also providing dense, affordable housing.

Also in the Rockaways, a new system of engineered berms, which look like sand dunes but have stone and steel walls at their cores, will help protect the ocean side of the peninsula. But little progress has been made on the bay side, which floods regularly.

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Throughout the city, other mitigation measures are underway or already complete, including flood walls and floodgates on the Lower East Side of Manhattan, and nature-based solutions, like bluebelts, which connect storm sewers to lakes and ponds.

After Superstorm Sandy inundated much of Staten Island’s eastern shore in 2012, the state bought more than 500 damaged homes, clearing most of them to return the land to a natural state in a practice known as managed retreat. But a costly, ambitious plan to protect the entire city from coastal storms has yet to be approved by the federal government and is at least 20 years away from completion.

The threats of global warming mean that local officials need to “rethink what a conventional home looks like,” said Max Besbris, a sociology professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who specializes in housing and climate change.

“That means denser housing, more energy-efficient housing, and that probably means giving up on that suburban ideal of a stand-alone home with a white picket fence,” he said.

The report from the Regional Plan Association analyzed the amount of housing the area needed today and in the future to make sure there were enough homes available for people to easily move into. The report said the region needed 362,000 additional homes today, in part to relieve overcrowding and permanently house the shelter population, among other factors.

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In 15 years, that number will more than triple to 1.2 million, when accounting for population growth, flood loss and general housing deterioration. Cities and towns should cluster growth in the parts of the region that have a relatively lower risk of flooding and are near public transit and commercial hubs, the report said.

Warren Schreiber, the president of the Queens Civic Congress, a group of civic associations from across the borough, said he agreed that people needed to be made safe from flood risks. But he said that any new development should focus on affordable housing, which raised the question of how much that development would cost.

“Who’s going to pay for this?” he said. “Is it going to be on the backs of middle-income working-class families?”

The report also used a tool called the National Zoning Atlas, which maps local restrictions on development to see where the zoning codes might allow for more homes to be built. The report found that 580,000 homes — less than half of what is needed — could be added under today’s zoning codes (though other factors, like funding or building codes, might also prevent homes from being built).

That housing gap showed the need for nearly every city, town and village to change their zoning codes to allow for more homes to be built, said Mr. Gates, one of the report’s authors.

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New York officials have tried to adapt zoning codes for easier building in recent years, with mixed success.

Gov. Kathy Hochul tried to push every city and town in the state to make way for more housing two years ago. But local leaders in the city’s suburbs, especially on Long Island and in Westchester County, resisted her efforts.

The administration of Mayor Eric Adams successfully pushed a plan known as “City of Yes” that could allow for some 80,000 additional homes to be built over the next decade. That plan, which the City Council approved in December, would reduce the city’s housing needs by only 11 percent, the report found.

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Video: Two Men Face Terrorism Charges in Bomb Attack at Gracie Mansion

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Video: Two Men Face Terrorism Charges in Bomb Attack at Gracie Mansion

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Two Men Face Terrorism Charges in Bomb Attack at Gracie Mansion

Federal prosecutors charged two men with attempting to support the Islamic State after they attempted to set off homemade explosives at Gracie Mansion on Saturday. The bombs did not detonate and no one was injured.

“Federal charges have been filed in the Southern District of New York against two individuals: Emir Balat and Ibrahim Kayumi. The defendants were inspired by ISIS to carry out their attack.” “Get him, get him, get him.” Preliminary testing has determined that one of the devices contained triacetone triperoxide — highly volatile explosive that has been used in multiple terrorist attacks over the last decade.” “Many of the counterprotesters met this display of bigotry peacefully, with a vision of a city that is welcoming to all. But a few did not. Two men, Emir Balat and Ibrahim Kayumi, traveled from Pennsylvania and attempted to bring violence to New York City. While I found this protest appalling, I will not waver in my belief that it should be allowed to happen. Ours is a free society where the right to peaceful protest is sacred.”

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Federal prosecutors charged two men with attempting to support the Islamic State after they attempted to set off homemade explosives at Gracie Mansion on Saturday. The bombs did not detonate and no one was injured.

By Christina Kelso

March 9, 2026

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How a Choreographer Lives on $55,000 in Kensington, Brooklyn

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How a Choreographer Lives on ,000 in Kensington, Brooklyn

How can people possibly afford to live in one of the most expensive cities on the planet? It’s a question New Yorkers hear a lot, often delivered with a mix of awe, pity and confusion.

We surveyed hundreds of New Yorkers about how they spend, splurge and save. We found that many people — rich, poor or somewhere in between — live life as a series of small calculations that add up to one big question: What makes living in New York worth it?

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It is a perennial question: Can artists still afford to live in New York? For Carrie Ahern, a choreographer and dancer who has lived and worked in the city for 30 years, the answer is yes — but it takes a couple of day jobs, a friendly landlord and a willingness sometimes to tell friends, “I can’t tonight, I’m too broke.”

Ms. Ahern moved to New York from Wisconsin in 1995, at age 19, with a dream to become a professional dancer. She had the drive and some contacts. But just as important, she had a nose for cheap real estate. She scored an apartment in Park Slope, Brooklyn, for $850 a month, split with a roommate. Supporting herself through a series of waitress jobs, she began pursuing her dream.

Now 50, Ms. Ahern runs her own nonprofit dance company, staging performances in private homes or unusual spaces, including a butcher shop, where she butchered a lamb as part of the show, then sold the meat at the end.

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“I kept expanding that dream,” she said of her years in New York. The city, in turn, “continued to let me bring out some skills that I didn’t even know I had.”

Those skills include creativity, resourcefulness and agility — in finance as well as dance.

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A Landlord to Cook and Garden With

The dance company pays Ms. Ahern a stipend of $4,800 a year, which she augments by teaching Pilates and movement therapy — sometimes in clients’ homes, sometimes in a rental studio, for which she pays $30 an hour.

A third income stream comes from a family company that manufactures industrial parts, which she has helped run since her father’s death in 2018. Her income from those three sources came to about $55,000 last year — about 10 percent higher than usual.

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The key to making it work, she said, is her apartment, one floor of a townhouse in the Kensington section of Flatbush, Brooklyn. After 16 years there, her rent is $1,350 a month, about half the median asking price for the neighborhood, according to StreetEasy.

“It’s like a cooperative in a lot of ways,” she said. “My landlord and I are very close, and we help each other out. We cook for each other. Or she was really excited that I love to garden, because she wanted help out there. So she keeps my rent low because she likes that I’m here and that we help each other out.”

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Special Expenses for a Dancer

Because Ms. Ahern’s apartment doubles as her office, she writes off part of the rent and utility bills as business expenses. She also deducts books, tickets to performances and any other expenses related to her work — including fitness and dance clothes, hair and makeup for performances, studio rentals and her Spotify subscription. It helps, she said, to have an accountant who works extensively with performing artists, and who had been one herself.

Those expenses bring Ms. Ahern’s income below $21,600, the threshold for Medicaid eligibility, which spares her from having to pay for health insurance. “It’s actually been the best insurance I’ve ever had,” she said. “You know, there’s no co-pay.”

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Making soup at home. Ms. Ahern says she’s able to be honest with her friends about when she can afford to splurge on dinners out. Bess Adler for The New York Times

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She does, however, still have to pay for routine maintenance on her 50-year-old dancer’s body.

She pays $120 for weekly sessions with a personal trainer, plus $115 for monthly acupuncture treatments and another $160 for monthly massage therapy appointments. “Almost all these people slide their scale for me, because of my career,” she said.

Finding Deals on Apps and Online

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Ms. Ahern gets free tickets to a lot of performances because she knows the people involved. Yet a free ticket can turn into an expensive night out if she isn’t careful. “Like, if someone says, ‘Oh, do you want to meet for dinner before?’” she said. “I feel like we’re good about being honest with each other, like, ‘I’m just really broke right now, and I can’t do it.’”

For meals at home, she uses the app Too Good to Go, where restaurants or stores offer deep discounts on food that would otherwise be thrown away — a new spin, she said, on dumpster diving. “This is a more refined version of that,” she said.

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She does, however, find her way to occasional splurges. If she cannot afford to treat friends to dinner, she treats them to coffee. And she splurged recently on tickets to see LCD Soundsystem at Knockdown Center in Queens and Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. For the latter, she waited until a few days before the concert, then looked on the ticket resale site StubHub for people trying to unload their passes. Bingo: $70 for a quality seat.

For all its financial challenges, she said, New York still offers artists chances to grow. A few years ago, for example, she needed a change, so she took a class in new way vogue, a dance style known for its sharp geometric lines and precision, and it introduced her to a different community with new energy.

“There’s all these little niches here,” she said. “So in another city, could I make the work that I make? Yeah, probably. But I don’t know if it would feed me in the same way.”

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How a Parks Worker Lives on $37,500 in Tompkinsville, Staten Island

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How a Parks Worker Lives on ,500 in Tompkinsville, Staten Island

How can people possibly afford to live in one of the most expensive cities on the planet? It’s a question New Yorkers hear a lot, often delivered with a mix of awe, pity and confusion.

We surveyed hundreds of New Yorkers about how they spend, splurge and save. We found that many people — rich, poor or somewhere in between — live life as a series of small calculations that add up to one big question: What makes living in New York worth it?

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Sara Robinson boarded a Greyhound bus from Oregon to New York City to attend Hunter College in the early 2000s, bright-eyed and eager to pick up odd jobs to fuel her dream of living there.

For a long time, she made it work. But recently, that has been more challenging than ever.

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Right around her 40th birthday, Ms. Robinson began to feel financially squeezed in Brooklyn, where she had lived for years. Ms. Robinson (no relation to this reporter) was also feeling too grown to live with roommates.

“As a child,” she said, “you don’t think you’re going to have a roommate at 40.” She decided to move into a place of her own: a one-bedroom apartment in the Tompkinsville neighborhood of Staten Island.

After she moved, the preschool where she’d worked for over a decade closed. Now, she works two jobs. She is a seasonal employee for the state Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation, working from Tuesday to Saturday. And on Monday nights, she sells concessions at the West Village movie theater Film Forum, which pays $25 an hour plus tips.

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Ms. Robinson, now 45, loves her job as an environmental educator at a state park on Staten Island. Her team runs the park’s social media accounts and comes up with event programming, like a recent project tapping maple trees to make syrup.

But the role is temporary. Her last stint was from June 2024 to January 2025. Then she was unemployed until August 2025. Ms. Robinson’s current contract will be up in April, unless she gets an extension or a different parks job opens up.

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Ms. Robinson’s biweekly pay stubs from the parks department amount to about $1,300 before taxes. She barely felt a difference, she said, while she was out of work and pocketing around $880 every two weeks from her unemployment checks. (Her previous parks gig paid $1,100 a check.)

Living in New York’s Greenest Borough

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“It used to be, ‘There’s no way I’m moving to Staten Island,’” Ms. Robinson said. “But the place is close to the water. I’m three minutes from the ferry. The rest is history.” She lives on the third floor of a multifamily house, above an art studio and another tenant. Her rent is $1,600 a month, plus $125 in utilities, including her phone bill.

“If my situation changes, I don’t know if I could find something similar,” she said. “So much of my New York life has been feeling trapped to an apartment. You get a place for a good price, and you’re like, ‘I can’t leave now.’”

Staten Island is convenient for Ms. Robinson’s parks job, but it’s become harder to justify living in a borough where she knows few people. It takes more than an hour to get to friends in Brooklyn, an especially hard trek during the winter. After four years of living on Staten Island, Ms. Robinson feels somewhat isolated.

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“All my friends on Staten Island are senior citizens,” she said. “It’s great. I love it. But I do want friends closer to my age.”

One of Ms. Robinson’s friends, Ray, took her on nature walks and taught her about tree identification, sparking an interest in mycology, the study of mushrooms. This led to a productive — and free — fungi foraging hobby during unemployment. She has found all sorts of mushrooms, including, after a month of searching, the elusive morel.

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The Budgeting Game

Ms. Robinson doesn’t update her furniture often, but when she does, she shops stoop sales in Park Slope or other parts of Brooklyn.

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“It’s like a treasure hunt,” she said. “You could make a whole apartment off the street, off the stuff that people throw away.”

She also makes a game out of grocery shopping, biking to Sunset Park in Brooklyn or Manhattan’s Chinatown to go to stores where there are better deals. She budgets about $300 for groceries each month.

Ms. Robinson bikes almost everywhere, sometimes traveling a little farther to enter the Staten Island Railway at one of the stations that don’t charge a fare. She spends $80 a month on subway and ferry fares, and $5 a month for a discounted Citi Bike membership she gets through a credit union, though she usually uses her own bike. She is handy and does repairs herself.

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There are certain splurges — Ms. Robinson drops $400 once or twice a year on round-trip airfare to Seattle, where her family lives. She also spent $100 last year to see a concert at Forest Hills Stadium in Queens.

She said she has many financial saving graces. She has no student loans and no car to make payments on. She doesn’t get health insurance from her jobs, but she qualifies for Medicaid.

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She mostly eats at home, though sometimes friends will treat her to dinner. She repays them with tickets to Film Forum movies.

Nothing Beats the Twinkling Lights

Ms. Robinson’s friends often talk about leaving the city — and the country.

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Two friends have their eyes set on Sweden, where they hope to get the affordable child care and social safety net they are struggling to access in New York.

Ms. Robinson can’t see herself moving elsewhere in the United States, but she is entertaining the idea of an international move if she can’t hack it on Staten Island.

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Yet the pull of the city is hard for her to resist.

“I just get a rush when I’m riding the Staten Island Ferry across the bay,” she said. “You see all the little twinkling lights. It’s this feeling of, ‘everything is possible here.’”

That feeling, plus the many friendly faces Ms. Robinson sees every day — the ferry operators, the conductors on the Staten Island Railway, her co-workers at Film Forum — are what tie her to New York.

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“My savings are not increasing, so there’s that,” she said. “But I’ve been OK so far. I think I’m going to figure it out.”

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