Sports
Putting a price tag on extending Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease and other looming free agents
Monday’s deep dive into Paul Skenes, perhaps the most interesting extension case in baseball, was a sneak peek of Extension Week.
Now I’ll start a broader look at potential extension candidates, concentrating today on players whose value is less speculative: impending free agents.
These players are, in general, less likely to sign an extension with free agency waiting at the end of this season, and my analysis here is basically projecting what each player could earn on the open market before adding in his 2025 salary. If nothing else, it’s an early projection for a free-agent deal this upcoming winter.
Since last spring’s Extension Week, three players actually put pen to paper on an extension, all earning a bit more than I projected:
| Player | Projected | Received |
|---|---|---|
|
4 years, $136M |
3 years, $126M |
|
|
5 years, $82.5M |
10 years, $122.4M |
|
|
6 years, $48M |
6 years, $55M |
*Here and in all other tables, I’ll account for significant deferrals by using the present-day value of the contract when it was signed.
I’ve tried to factor that into the analysis this year.
Here’s how I go about this: I’ve got a big Excel spreadsheet with more than 1,100 free-agent and extension contracts in it, as well as players’ performance in the years leading up to those contracts, as defined by FanGraphs’ wins above replacement. Whereas players get paid off home runs and saves in arbitration, I’ve found fWAR to be a solid (though not all-knowing) predictor of earnings on the open market.
I plug extension candidates into the spreadsheet, find players with similar levels of production (and ideally with similar amounts of team control left) before they signed their deals, and work off of those comps.
A few overall points worth remembering:
- For extensions, team control is important. If Player A looks just like Player B, except Player A has three years of arbitration ahead of him and Player B was a free agent, Player A isn’t going to get the contract Player B did. However, what Player B made in free agency is still useful as a guide to what the later part of Player A’s contract can look like.
- For starting pitchers and position players, I look at fWAR in one-, three- and five-year samples, with a special emphasis on the shorter term. For extensions in particular, the five-year sample is less helpful because a lot of players haven’t been playing for five full years.
- For relievers, I look at one- and two-year samples. What happened five years ago isn’t really relevant for such a volatile position, and I’ve found more of a recency bias in contracts here than elsewhere.
- This is an exercise in player valuation, not commentary on the likelihood of an extension being signed or whether I think a team or player should sign an extension at the value I suggest. I find doing this helpful even when an extension is unlikely because it helps me understand what the market may be once a player reaches free agency or to see how the player’s value has changed over time.
As we go through this, keep in mind:
- The actual extension projection in all cases includes what the player is slated to make this season. It will likely contain a lower AAV (average annual value) than the player would get on the open market for this reason.
- These players should have higher projections this year than last year. Last year, they were two years removed from free agency, and they were slated to make below market value via arbitration.
- The number in parentheses is the player’s age on July 1 of this year.
- In the charts, “Today AAV” is the average annual value of the deal adjusted for inflation.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (26)
Maybe no one in baseball had a better year for their potential earnings than Guerrero. His 5.5-win season (according to FanGraphs) washed away any concerns after a pedestrian 2023 and reminded the sport that he’s one of its very best hitters. Plus, a player with similar strengths and weaknesses signed for more than $750 million. So Guerrero is in significantly better shape this spring than he was last spring.
Earlier in spring training, I broke down why Guerrero’s value in an extension has proven difficult to pin down. At the moment, he looks like he belongs just below the second tier of free-agent contracts for first basemen (Miguel Cabrera is the sole occupant of the top tier).
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3 ▼ |
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2012 |
32-41 |
3.9 |
19.1 |
35.5 |
10 |
240 |
33.6 |
|
|
2014 |
30-39 |
6.4 |
17.9 |
21.4 |
10 |
225 |
30.6 |
|
|
2019 |
31-35 |
5.2 |
15.4 |
26.9 |
5 |
130 |
32.8 |
|
|
2009 |
29-36 |
6.9 |
14.8 |
24.9 |
8 |
180 |
33.8 |
|
|
2025 |
26 |
5.5 |
10.1 |
16.7 |
Extending a deal for a massive 14 free-agent years would limit the AAV just a touch, to about $30 million. I know, I know: A deal that long comes off as crazy. But there have been a dozen players who have signed deals at least nine years in length in the last three offseasons — or just shy of the number of contracts that long that were signed over the prior decade. Four of them (Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts) extend through a player’s age-40 season, as this one would for Guerrero.
2024 extension projection: Seven years, $185 million
2025 Salary: $28.5 million
2025 extension projection: 15 years, $450 million
Kyle Tucker (28)
If Tucker had remained healthy last season and continued playing the way he did in the first half of the season, his best statistical comp would be… Soto. Because of his age, Tucker wouldn’t have been able to get as long a deal as Soto, but he would have been able to make a case for a similar average annual value.
The comps are not bad as is.
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3 ▼ |
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2019 |
26-35 |
6.2 |
14.9 |
23.8 |
10 |
300.0 |
37.8 |
|
|
2009 |
29-36 |
6.9 |
14.8 |
24.9 |
8 |
180.0 |
33.8 |
|
|
2025 |
28 |
4.2 |
14.1 |
22.9 |
||||
|
2025 |
31-33 |
4.1 |
14.0 |
20.5 |
3 |
90.0 |
30.0 |
|
|
2012 |
28-36 |
4.7 |
13.2 |
19.2 |
9 |
214.0 |
33.3 |
Tucker should be able to secure a deal through at least his age-36 season, and it’s not hard for him to argue he should go longer than either Teixeira or Fielder. Let’s go with 10 years at about $35 million each before adding in this season’s salary.
2024 extension projection: Eight years, $204 million
2025 salary: $16.5 million
2025 extension projection: 11 years, $366 million
Dylan Cease (29)
Last season, Cease and Zac Gallen entered in a similar spot: at the same age, earning about the same in arbitration, in line for about the same extension. Then, while Gallen had a nice season, Cease posted another top-five finish in the Cy Young balloting. He’s placed himself in the same group as the top earning starters from this past winter.
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3 ▼ |
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2025 |
29 |
4.8 |
12.8 |
17.8 |
||||
|
2025 |
30-35 |
3.7 |
11.8 |
24.2 |
6 |
193.8 |
32.3 |
|
|
2015 |
31-36 |
5.6 |
11.6 |
19.1 |
6 |
155.0 |
35.1 |
|
|
2025 |
31-38 |
3.4 |
10.1 |
17.6 |
8 |
218.0 |
27.3 |
Lester sets the high end for Cease, and that comp suggests Cease can in fact get more than Burnes just did from the Diamondbacks. Both point to a deal buying out six free-agent years. Let’s estimate those at just under $33 million and add in this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: Seven years, $140 million
2025 salary: $13.75 million
2025 extension projection: Seven years, $210 million
Zac Gallen (29)
Right now, Gallen isn’t quite on the same level as Cease.
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3
|
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2016 |
30-35 |
4.0 |
9.4 |
17.0 |
6 |
130.0 |
29.0 |
|
|
2016 |
30-34 |
3.0 |
12.0 |
18.7 |
5 |
110.0 |
29.5 |
|
|
2025 |
29 |
2.8 |
12.2 |
15.6 |
This sets him up for roughly the 2025 version of Cueto’s deal in free agency: six years and $174 million, before adding this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: Seven years, $140 million
2025 salary: $13.5 million
2025 extension projection: Seven years, $187 million
Framber Valdez (31)
Valdez has had just as much success as Cease and Gallen; the issue for him is he’s two years older than those guys. Starters who hit the open market entering their age-32 season seldom sign for more than three or four years. (The exceptions are guys like Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, who all owned Cy Young awards.)
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR3
|
fWAR5
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2016 |
30-35 |
4.0 |
9.4 |
17.0 |
6 |
130.0 |
29.0 |
|
|
2016 |
30-34 |
3.0 |
12.0 |
18.7 |
5 |
110.0 |
29.5 |
|
|
2025 |
31 |
3.6 |
12.4 |
16.8 |
Let’s stick with the same comps as Gallen but only for four free-agent years rather than six.
2024 extension projection: Five years, $105 million
2025 salary: $18 million
2025 extension projection: Five years, $134 million
Devin Williams (30)
Just looking at the raw numbers isn’t charitable to Williams, who on a per-appearance basis is right there with recent closers who signed four-year deals like Raisel Iglesias and Tanner Scott. (Williams missed roughly two-thirds of last season.)
|
Player
|
Signed
|
Ages
|
fWAR1
|
fWAR2
|
Years
|
Total
|
Today AAV
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2022 |
32-35 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
4.0 |
58 |
16.4 |
|
|
2025 |
30 |
1.6 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
72.0 |
18.0 |
|
|
2025 |
30 |
0.8 |
2.6 |
Given that no position gets paid on reputation quite the way closer does, Williams could still be in line for a deal that rivals Scott’s, before adding in this year’s salary.
2024 extension projection: N/A
2025 salary: $8.6 million
2025 extension projection: Five years, $80 million
(Top photo of Dylan Cease: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)
Sports
NBA player calls for Hawks to cancel their ‘Magic City’ strip club promotional night out of respect for women
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An NBA player has taken exception to an Atlanta Hawks promotional night, which is a nod to a famed strip club in the city.
The Hawks have “Magic City Night” scheduled for March 16 against the Orlando Magic, but a player for neither team isn’t too fond of paying tribute to a strip club, which has been famed for its late-night stories involving athletes, celebrities and more.
While the Hawks call it an ode to a “cultural institution,” San Antonio Spurs center Luke Kornet shared his displeasure in a letter posted on Medium.
Luke Kornet of the San Antonio Spurs reaches for the ball during the third quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center on Feb. 26, 2026 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. (Ishika Samant/Getty Images)
Kornet, a nine-year veteran and 2024 NBA champion with the Boston Celtics, called for the Hawks’ promotional night to be canceled later this month, saying that it is disrespectful to women to honor the strip club.
“In its press release, the Hawks failed to acknowledge that this place is, as the business itself boasts, “Atlanta’s premier strip club.” Given this fact, I would like to respectfully ask that the Atlanta Hawks cancel this promotional night with Magic City,” Kornet wrote in his post.
“The NBA should desire to protect and esteem women, many of whom work diligently every day to make this the best basketball league in the world. We should promote an atmosphere that is protective and respectful of the daughters, wives, sisters, mothers, and partners that we know and love.”
The Hawks boasted about the theme night in its press release, including a live performance by famous Atlanta rapper T.I., a co-branded, limited-edition hoodie and even the establishment’s “World Famous” lemon-pepper chicken wings in the arena.
A general view of signage with the State Farm Arena logo on Nov. 14, 2025, outside State Farm Arena, in Atlanta, GA. (Erica Denhoff/Icon Sportswire)
“This collaboration and theme night is very meaningful to me after all the work that we did to put together ’Magic City: An American Fantasy’,” said Hawks principal owner, filmmaker and actor, Jami Gertz, said in a press release. “The iconic Atlanta institution has made such an incredible impact on our city and its unique culture.”
Kornet wrote that allowing the night to continue “without protest would reflect poorly on us as an NBA community, “specifically in being complicit in the potential objectification and mistreatment of women in our society.”
Kornet wrote that “others throughout the league” were surprised by the Hawks’ decision to have this promotional night.
“We desire to provide an environment where fans of all ages can safely come and enjoy the game of basketball and where we can celebrate the history and culture of communities in good conscience. The celebration of a strip club is not conduct aligned with that vision,” he wrote.
Luke Kornet of the San Antonio Spurs defends against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on Jan. 31, 2026 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)
The Hawks have seen good reception for the promotional night, as Tick Pick reported a get-in price was initially $10 for the game and has since skyrocketed to $94.
Kornet is in his first season with the Spurs, his sixth NBA team, where he has played mainly in a bench role. He averages 7.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per game across 50 contests.
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Sports
Shaikin: Clayton Kershaw’s ‘perfect’ ending has one final chapter in WBC
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — How do you improve on the perfect ending?
Clayton Kershaw stood in the desert heat Monday, wearing a far darker shade of blue than the Dodgers do. He does not need a medal, or a chance to fail. His election to the Hall of Fame will be a formality.
In his farewell year, the Dodgers won the World Series, becoming baseball’s first back-to-back champions in 25 years. He secured a critical out. He bathed in adoration at the championship rally, and he told the fans he would be one of them this year.
“I’m going to watch,” he hollered that day, “just like all of you.”
Four months later, he was back in uniform.
He wore a dark blue jersey with red-and-white piping. As Team USA ran through its first World Baseball Classic workout, Kershaw participated in pitchers’ fielding practice and shagged fly balls during batting practice. He could have been home with his five kids, and instead he was rushing off the mound to take a throw at first base.
That November night in Toronto, as it turned out, was not the last time we would see him in uniform.
“Feels good,” he said Monday. “I wouldn’t put on a uniform for anything else. This is a special thing.”
He put the World Baseball Classic into red, white and blue perspective.
“It’s a bucket list thing for me,” he said.
He is either self-deprecating or painfully honest about his capabilities right now, or perhaps a little of both.
The last World Baseball Classic came down to Shohei Ohtani pitching to Mike Trout. This one could come down to Kershaw pitching to Ohtani.
“I think, for our country’s sake, it’s probably better if I don’t,” Kershaw said.
Former Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw fields a ground ball during a workout at Papago Park Sports Complex on Monday.
(Chris Coduto / Getty Images)
Never say never. Team USA planned to run a tremendous rotation of Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Joe Ryan and Logan Webb, but now Skubal says he will pitch just once in the tournament. Skenes says he’ll pitch twice. Ryan says he won’t pitch in the first round, at least.
Kershaw might be needed beyond the role he was promised: save the team from using the current major league pitchers in blowouts or extra innings.
In 11 career at-bats against Kershaw, Ohtani has no hits. Kershaw won’t duck the assignment if gets it, but he considers it so unlikely he is happy to share his game plan publicly.
“It’s throw it, pitch away, play away, hope he flies out to left,” Kershaw said. “Don’t throw it in his barrel.
“I can’t imagine, if it comes down to USA versus Japan, with the arms that we have, that I’ll be needed. But I’ll be ready.”
Kershaw’s average fastball velocity dropped to 89 mph last season, but he led the majors in winning percentage. He could eat innings for some team — maybe even the Dodgers, with Blake Snell and Gavin Stone all but certain to be unavailable on opening day.
Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, right, celebrates with teammates after the Dodgers defeated the Toronto Blue Jays for the 2025 World Series title.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
But, even with his success last year and even with the joy of wearing a uniform once again, he insists he isn’t interested in pitching beyond the WBC.
“I don’t want to,” he said. “You can’t end it better than I did last year. I had a great time last year. It was an absolute blast and honor to be on that team. I think that was the perfect way to end it. Honestly, I don’t know if I would have enough in the tank to pitch for a full season again. I’m really at peace with that decision.
“This is kind of a weird one-off thing, but you can’t really turn down this opportunity. It wasn’t easy to get ready for this, with no motivation for a season, but I actually am in a pretty good spot with my arm. I’ll be fine. If they need me, I’ll be ready.”
Kershaw said he has kept in touch with his old Dodgers teammates, with some connecting on video calls from the weight room or clubhouse at Camelback Ranch. He arrived in the Phoenix area two days before the workout, but he skipped a trip to Camelback Ranch.
“I’ve thought about it,” he said. “I miss the guys. I think it’s probably just better, at least for this first year, for me mentally to just stay away, just for spring training.”
Kershaw said he would be at Dodger Stadium for the championship ring ceremony March 27.
He is content with what he calls “Dad life.” He and his wife, Ellen, just welcomed their fifth child, and Dad life includes lots of shuttles to baseball and basketball practice.
“I run an Uber service,” Kershaw said.
This wouldn’t be a Dodgers story these days without some reference to the team’s big spending so, for what it’s worth, Kershaw spent some time Tuesday chatting with Skubal, who will be the grand prize on the free-agent market next winter, or whenever the likely lockout might end.
That’s a rational explanation, Kershaw says, for Skubal pitching just once in the WBC.
“Everybody knows the situation he is in, contract-wise,” Kershaw said. “Any innings we can get out of him is a huge bonus to this team. He’s great. Super competitive. We’re honored to have him.”
Should we assume Skubal will be pitching for the Dodgers next season? Kershaw laughed.
“No comment,” he said, then walked away to get ready for the first game of his post-retirement life.
Sports
Charles Barkley scolds sports fans for getting wrapped up in Olympic hockey frenzy
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Basketball Hall of Famer Charles Barkley sounded off on the frenzied reactions to the U.S. men’s hockey team getting invited to the White House by President Donald Trump.
Trump talked to the Olympic gold medal-winning team immediately after they defeated Canada in overtime last weekend. He said they would be invited to his State of the Union address and added that he needed to invite the women’s team as well or he would be “impeached.”
Charles Barkley sits courtside against the Minnesota Timberwolves during an NBA Cup game at Mortgage Matchup Center on Nov. 21, 2025. (Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images)
Trump critics took the joke as a shot at the women’s team, which sparked questions from NHL and Professional Women’s Hockey League reporters as the players returned to their respective club teams.
“I’m proud of the United States men. I’m proud of the United States women. You should have invited both of them to the White House, but it shouldn’t have been disrespect, misogyny,” Barkley said on the “Steam Room” podcast. “Like, yo, man, why do y’all have to mess everything up? Everything isn’t Democrat, Republican, conservative, liberal. That’s why we got this divided, screwed up country. Stop it man. Because, you know, the public, they’re idiots. They’re fools. They can’t think for themselves. I know y’all say stuff to trigger them. Y’all say stuff and y’all know they’re going to be fools.”
Barkley lamented that the average person would get riled up over the supposed controversy.
The U.S. team poses for a group photo after defeating Canada in the men’s ice hockey gold medal game at the 2026 Winter Olympics. Milan, Italy, on Feb. 22, 2026. (Luca Bruno/AP Photo)
“We don’t have to fall for stupidity. But we do – that’s my point. These people out here are stupid. They need something to trigger them. Just because they want us to be stupid. We don’t have to be stupid. He should have invited both teams to the White House. Simple as that. Guys who didn’t want to go shouldn’t have to explain why they didn’t go.”
The former Philadelphia 76ers, Houston Rockets and Phoenix Suns star made clear he would go to the White House regardless of whether Trump was in office.
“I’ve said this before, I’m not a Trump guy. But if I got invited to the White House, I would go. I’m not a Trump guy – I want to make that clear. But I respect the office,” Barkley said. “He’s the president of the United States. But if guys don’t want to go, I understand that too. It doesn’t have to be a talking point. It doesn’t have to be un-American.
Megan Keller (5) celebrates with a flag alongside Cayla Barnes (3) of Team United States after scoring the game-winning goal in overtime during the women’s gold medal match against Canada on Day 13 of the Milan Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games at Milan Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy, on Feb. 19, 2026. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
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“I just wish y’all would stop falling for the stupidity.”
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